Traderbeauty-Power of longer term price analysis and my broker's real money reports a

[Traderbeauty]

Dear All.

 

Approximately at the beginning of July I predicted a strong move down to at least 1906 - keep in mind that the contract was changed so the 1906 was also changed-

Here are my live money broker's report that is showing how i got out from 5 short ES contracts that i shorted at 1974.5 and above and kept them till i decided its the bottom.

I did not use any indicators at all- just price action , fibs and daily volume analysis.

So first- here is the link to the report:

 

http://i.imgur.com/Xp4j4l0.png

 

This is a link to see where i wrote the forecast :

http://indo-investasi.com/showthread.php/24673-Need-to-cure-Tr*dingTheT*pe-strat?p=334640#post334640 post number 72.

 

This is what I wrote:

btw- we just hit a daily huge fib- i expect the market to retrace from here to at least 1906 .

hope it helps- i shorted at 1974.25 and keeping all shorts for a nice profit ( thats on top of the day trading )

hope it helps- remember- early close today.

jane

 

Apparently no body cares so I stopped predicting or explaining.

These trades were made in a separate long term account that i have whihc has nothing to do with my day trading account.

Just note how I got out of the shorts right at the bottom which was at 1890.25 and right now the market is almost at 1930 ( sunday afternoon ).

 

Here is the reason why i got out- 50 fib and market got back to the breaking point that is now turned from a resistance to a support.

At the same time once i saw the divergence on the renko 2-1 and 4-1 i went long - i was just too tempting - i have my stops now at breakeven with target of 1965 but most likely a double top or even more-not trying to guess anything, will watch when we get to the big 38 fib to see if the down move is not coming back to continue down.

Take care and hope this helps.

Traderbeauty-Jane

http://i.imgur.com/yXTpP65.jpg

Edited August 10, 2014 by Traderbeauty

[Traderbeauty]

O.K

So i see some interest here - people are hitting the thank you button and that is the only way i can tell- so here is some more explanation of my daily analysis-

My main concern was whether to exit at the 38 fib which was 1914.75 or wait for the 50 fib- it was a really tough call and needed a lot of nerves- remember- i was going against the market's grain so a mistake in judgement would not end nicely- truth is that by then i had a lot of profit and my stops were way bellow break even but still....

So here is where i look at the plain volume- you dont need any fancy or complicated indicators- they are all b.s with fancy names and high prices.

Lets look and judge bar by bar-

I KNEW we have to get at least to the 38 fib - take a look at that wonderful 40 points down bar- that bar caused a lot of damage to the market and it was doing so with a huge volume so i KNEW that the direction at least for now is down .

Next bar was almost a dogi with a high volume almost the same as the big down day-

Lets ask ourselves- what was going on there ? apparently- there were a lot of big money buyers- maybe they all thought to buy at the 38 fib but i did not exit - not even one of my shorts.i needed another proof not just a dogi- also- the MAIN REASON was that the 38 was clearly BROKEN to the downside by more than a point or 2 ; so i just stayed but checked the next day's closing- look what happened---- ( 3rd arrowed bar )-

It went up- every one was buying - every one was sure its going back up- but look at the volume- LOW- much lower than the previous 2 days- at that time i knew it was a bogus up move to fool the buyers- way and behold- next day ( 4th bar- no arrows ) the market kept going down with a high volume- now i knew that we are going definitely to the 50 fib so when we got there i just got out and reversed.

Friday was an up move- supported by a high volume so its not a fake move so i am keeping my longs for now.

Technically since the market stopped dead on 50 fib it should go up now and make a new high with target of 1.618 or at least 1.272 where i am going to reshort it .

Its not my place to try to guess where and when the market will rotate- its much simpler- its goes up till it goes down- and as ****** as it sounds its the truth.

You can do the same analysis intraday and it works like a charm.

Take care

Traderbeauty-Jane

 

http://i.imgur.com/JTi2fTx.jpg

[aenigma]

Thank You for the Detailed Explanation.. Please keep them Coming.

[FXX]

Thank you Jane,

 

this makes sense and I see the same sort of pattern on the downmove in the first half of april, where we have 2 up bars on low volume and the market goes further down.

 

FXX

[wcicom]

Add symmetry swings with your Fibs, and there would be no need to guess which level is "the one"

[Traderbeauty]

Thank You all for your THANKS- you have to understand- this is the only way I can tell there is a shred if interest.

 

As you could have seen- KNOWING the general direction or what is usually called BIG PICTURE is helping us during our day trading.

 

I wrote yesterday that the market is going up so today i only took longs whenever there was a retracement- remember- I am not taking EVERY SINGLE navi long- i am waiting till we have a nice fib retracement BEFORE i go in- otherwise my risk reward is not good.

Volume was pathetic today so once i saw that on the 4th trade even though the market got to plus 20 it could not hold the 78 fib of last leg i just quit and stopped trading which apparently was smart- if there is no volume- there are no moves and i dont want to go for 2-3 ticks.

 

See the renko- 2-1 chart- i believe that four trades are enough.

 

http://i.imgur.com/C0i8Uux.jpg

 

Now lets look at the daily---

Keep in mind that I am long 5 contracts and i cannot just sit there and say that the market will go up to at least 2011.75 because of fib. Truthfully- its hard for me to believe that the market will get there- but if it will- i am going to short everything i have - half at the 1.272 and the other half at the 1.618.

Today's action was not impressive- you can see that the market moved up with a very low volume which acts as a huge divergence.Add to that the fact that it happened very close to the 50 fib to make me very suspicious.I might start to exit my longs at the 62 fib- there is a big gap and also the support there around 1956-1960 is acting now as a resistance; but again- I AM NOT TRYING TO GUESS WHAT WILL HAPPEN , i will do what the market is telling me to do. I cannot lose on my longs its just a question where to move my stop to.

Hope that helps.

Traderbeauty-Jane

http://i.imgur.com/HVOrQOF.jpg

[Traderbeauty]

I plan to exit all my longs at 1947.50- i might reverse there to short but not full load.

take a look at this image- there is too much confluence to ignore and almost 50 points is nothing to laugh about.

hope that helps

Traderbeauty-Jane

 

 

 

http://i.imgur.com/eXthWWE.jpg

[Traderbeauty]

look at the last 2 days---

yesterday was a doji on a smaller volume- doji usually has to interpretations- either a hesitation and pause in the move with expectation for continuation of the original move ; or--- a possible reversal.

the reversal scenario happens usually at tops or bottoms and not in the middle, also for a reversal we need a high volume because then it means that even though we had lots of volume the market did not move to any side.

In our case this is very obvious that the first scenario is still valid and that is why i kept my longs.

lets look at today- i took again many longs but also one short once we were at a fib and i had a divergence.

the move up today was not on a higher volume which is very very suspicious and that is why i plan to exit most of my longs at 1947.75, if i see the right reaction i might even reverse to short.

take care and hope that this is helping you.

Traderbeauty-Jane

http://i.imgur.com/PqIxTdd.jpg

[Traderbeauty]

Market kept going up so i kept buying at every retracement- there was no indication of lower lows and lower highs so there was no sense to short.

I got out of only one long contract because there was nothing to indicate a reversal down.

The volume continues to be very low compared to the volume on the way down which indicates a fake move up.

The market did break the 61.8 fib level - i was watching like a hawk ready to bail, there were few attempts but nothing gave us an indication of lower lows lower highs- you can see that clearer on the renko spectrum 4-1.

Since the volume is so pathetic i plan to exit everything at the 78 fib because almost always there is a strong opposite move at the 78.

Look at the daily and see how it goes up on a very low volume- this is a divergence so i am very very careful- but again- i will not exit unless we have an indication.

As traders you have to FORCE YOURSELF to listen to the market and not to yourself.Its so hard for me to accept the move up because the move down was so strong and swift - but i am forcing myself to keep going long till the market will tell me otherwise.

 

I also want you to look at the next chart which is a renko 12-2 , you can see the fib levels much more accurate because the daily does not take into account the overnight levels so i am telling you now- at 1965 i am exiting all and again- that is because the move up has no fuel. look at today's move on the 12-3 see how the market goes up while the volume goes down- this is the best divergence you can see.

Hope this helps

Traderbeauty-Jane

 

http://i.imgur.com/2w3GVtM.jpg

 

http://i.imgur.com/cilNO2H.jpg

[admis]

...you can see the fib levels much more accurate because the daily does not take into account the overnight levels ...

Instead of daily bars you can use 1440 min to omit this disadvantage.

 

btw. Jane, as usual, many thanks for your invaluable input.

[tradernate]

Hi Jane, great job with those daily fib levels. TY for taking the time to do this. Also was hoping you could tell the type and setting of your oscillator on post 6 chart. Looks like it can help with pivot timing as well. Take care-Nate Edited August 15, 2014 by tradernate

[Traderbeauty]

Hi Admis

Thanks a lot- that is a very good idea- you can see very clear how the market goes up but volume goes down, now that does not mean anything YET- we need to see a doji with high volume that will tell us that sellers entered the market.

Nate- that indi is just rightline moving average- the rest is garbage- i put it there just for fun, you really dont need anything other than navi and renko to give you the signal.

p.m me if you want.

Jane

 

http://i.imgur.com/sAwC1hy.jpg

[Traderbeauty]

i am out of my positions at 1960

this is ridiculous - i am falling asleep need some action lol not going to the cl.

made almost 70 points and that is more than enough for me on a position.

in my day trading i still keep going long at fib levels till the market will tell me to reverse .

jane

[Traderbeauty]

wow

was i lucky or what- no idea why it goes down now but who cares.

[Traderbeauty]

WOW

no idea what just happened, i guess some bad news, you can check the time stamp of my exit post and you will see that i got out just before that huge move down- this move is not normal on huge volume - 20-30 k contracts per minute.

crazy

[tradernate]

Hi Jane, the right line indi is a 50 SMA. When possible it would be great for the settings on the 2 oscillators since I like to use lagging indicators to help see divergences when I read price and volume...thats just me. I do not use RenkoSpectrum bars, just been using Hybridrenko, and starting to like them, better then range or no gap.

 

Hi Admis

Thanks a lot- that is a very good idea- you can see very clear how the market goes up but volume goes down, now that does not mean anything YET- we need to see a doji with high volume that will tell us that sellers entered the market.

Nate- that indi is just rightline moving average- the rest is garbage- i put it there just for fun, you really dont need anything other than navi and renko to give you the signal.

p.m me if you want.

Jane

 

http://i.imgur.com/sAwC1hy.jpg

[Traderbeauty]

This is amazing- look at my post #12 above-

 

And here we have a perfect doji with a huge volume compared to the previous few days.

That means that there were a lot of sellers otherwise with 1.8 mil contracts the market would have gone up a lot and it did not.

This is the first sign of a reversal. i would wait for a touch of the 78 fib but i would not hold longs for a position right now.

Hope this helps

Jane

 

 

This is the quote i wrote earlier today :

Hi Admis

Thanks a lot- that is a very good idea- you can see very clear how the market goes up but volume goes down, now that does not mean anything YET- we need to see a doji with high volume that will tell us that sellers entered the market.

http://i.imgur.com/iKB5wIP.jpg

[chonpz]

not seeing the same thing on my VOL indi...what kind of data feed are u using traderbeauty

 

 

This is amazing- look at my post #12 above-

 

And here we have a perfect doji with a huge volume compared to the previous few days.

That means that there were a lot of sellers otherwise with 1.8 mil contracts the market would have gone up a lot and it did not.

This is the first sign of a reversal. i would wait for a touch of the 78 fib but i would not hold longs for a position right now.

Hope this helps

Jane

 

 

This is the quote i wrote earlier today :

Hi Admis

Thanks a lot- that is a very good idea- you can see very clear how the market goes up but volume goes down, now that does not mean anything YET- we need to see a doji with high volume that will tell us that sellers entered the market.

http://i.imgur.com/iKB5wIP.jpg

[Traderbeauty]

cog through amp futures.

this is just a plain volume- nothing fancy or complicated.

the beauty is that i use the same thing on a 1 and 2 minute chart and see the same setups intraday while day trading.

[Traderbeauty]

There was nothing today to point to the short side so i just continued to take longs on any retracement.

Problem was that there hardly any moves- it was bellow pathetic today.

Look at the daily- it had a big move but look at the volume--- very low- that ; combined with the fact that we are still hanging around the 78 is telling me to expect a reversal to the downside - but ONLY if we start to get stairstep down formation.

Usually if if there is a reversal - the market does that either from the 78 fib or from a double top , we will know very soon if the 78 is broken to the upside. remember- there is no reason for us to even think that the market will not get to the big 1.618 fib extension but we do have to be ready for any trick that the market will play on us.

take care

jane

 

http://i.imgur.com/zwXD5OG.jpg

 

http://i.imgur.com/eUJloZW.jpg

[hirobo]

Hi, very nice PA examples. I love to see clear chart. Can you please tell me what is "navi" as i read in many of your post? Is it some indi for NT7? Thanks and thank you again for sharing your ideas.

[admis]

Hi, very nice PA examples. I love to see clear chart. Can you please tell me what is "navi" as i read in many of your post? Is it some indi for NT7? Thanks and thank you again for sharing your ideas.

 

Always, the search field is your best friend. A little bit effort and you could find this:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zhH-T0lqVEA

[Traderbeauty]

As you can see looking at the 4-1 renko- we dont have any indication of lower lows lower highs so no sense to go short no matter what.

all you need to do is wait for a nice retracement and go long once you get a signal.

i am done trading for today because this is b.s but would like to take the time to explain how you can use fibs to filter bad entries.

look at the 2-1 renko- i started at 9 30 eastern and waited for a retracement- now- the most important fact is to look WHERE does the retracement is coming from, and in this example it came off 112 fib extention which is not a strong trend, so once we got a signal at the 50 fib- 2 arrows together- I DID NOT TAKE IT- because i would wait for at least 62 fib- so i actually shorted for 1 point once the 50 long signal failed and there was a very small divergence.

then once i got a signal at the 62 i took it for few points.

the next long i took was the next 2 arrows- we had a 38 fib retracement combined with a previous support - so once i got a signal there was no need to guess or be smart- i just took it again.

hope that helps

Traderbeauty-Jane

 

http://i.imgur.com/ynHbrau.jpg

 

 

 

 

http://i.imgur.com/eIcz9SC.jpg

[Traderbeauty]

take a look at the last few day's up move compared to the volume-

you can see that this move has nothing behind it- no fuel, very low volume, this is a bait for all the suckers that are getting excited and buy into what they think is a great up move.

in order to have a true or whats called "a healthy" move- it needs to be supported by volume, ; reading the volume is the only way for us to tell what is going on behind this move.

look at the volume on the way down- 3 million contracts etc, and here- less than a mil- it shows us what is really going on.

I think that we are going to get a huge response down right at 1985.75 - the previous top- i guess they will do that few ticks above to bait all the suckers that will buy at a breakout and make as many suffer as possible.

going to short right there - the second i get a signal not even going to wait for a stairstep down formation.

ok- let me tell you my plan-

i love to play games in my long term position portfolio-

i already have an order to short at 1985.50, will add at 2011.75 and more at 2044.75 - profit is going to be very nice here so just stay tuned.

ALL THESE ORDERS ARE WITHOUT ANY STOPS so unless you are prepared for some heat- DO NOT TRY IT AT HOME.

take care

Traderbeauty-Jane

http://i.imgur.com/42l0NK2.jpg

[hirobo]

As you can see looking at the 4-1 renko- we dont have any indication of lower lows lower highs so no sense to go short no matter what.

all you need to do is wait for a nice retracement and go long once you get a signal.

i am done trading for today because this is b.s but would like to take the time to explain how you can use fibs to filter bad entries.

look at the 2-1 renko- i started at 9 30 eastern and waited for a retracement- now- the most important fact is to look WHERE does the retracement is coming from, and in this example it came off 112 fib extention which is not a strong trend, so once we got a signal at the 50 fib- 2 arrows together- I DID NOT TAKE IT- because i would wait for at least 62 fib- so i actually shorted for 1 point once the 50 long signal failed and there was a very small divergence.

then once i got a signal at the 62 i took it for few points.

the next long i took was the next 2 arrows- we had a 38 fib retracement combined with a previous support - so once i got a signal there was no need to guess or be smart- i just took it again.

hope that helps

Traderbeauty-Jane

 

http://i.imgur.com/ynHbrau.jpg

 

 

 

 

http://i.imgur.com/eIcz9SC.jpg

 

May i please ask you, when you took the first long from 38 fib. when you decide to exit? Thanks. I see entry points, but i have problems with exits.