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The box


yamantaka

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When searching the website of the developer, I noticed there are no recent updates to the website and marketing activities around the Box. Anyone any idea why?

 

I also found out that there is a PPT Trading method consisting of the Box and other elements - including a MAP indicator (predicts price rising and falling in future).

Anyone has materials of the PPT Trading method to share - and especially the MAP?

 

PS: Ensign software has also a MAP indicator which is developed by Larry Pesavento. This indi makes good predictions, but does not run on NT.

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When searching the website of the developer, I noticed there are no recent updates to the website and marketing activities around the Box. Anyone any idea why?

 

I also found out that there is a PPT Trading method consisting of the Box and other elements - including a MAP indicator (predicts price rising and falling in future).

Anyone has materials of the PPT Trading method to share - and especially the MAP?

 

PS: Ensign software has also a MAP indicator which is developed by Larry Pesavento. This indi makes good predictions, but does not run on NT.

Perhaps the developer has abandoned marketing the box since it's been educated and vendor support isn't critical for success in using it anyway. In this business, vendors come and go--it's a revolving door.

 

I never got into the MAP because the developer portrayed the box as a money machine without any add-ons.

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Sometimes I have a box (detached, not overlapping) without levels being plotted.

See at http://hidemyass.com/img/T9Ctu/

Eventually the trade was stopped out at the top of the box, so although the levels are not plotted, the top of the Box information is available.

 

That's because the second box is still within the first box range. So you should still exit at the second box's target1 (which is not drawn) to be safe.

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More time spent with the box can be rewarding in terms of finding decent settings in various markets. I find Strategy Analyzer is a most helpful tool for this.

 

In these TF trades, the target and stop were 16 and 12, respectively.

 

http://i59.tinypic.com/23qyyba.jpg

 

Here's ZS with a 2 tick target and 4 contracts.

 

http://i62.tinypic.com/2dkygyr.jpg

 

And ZS again with a 9/9 target/stop

 

http://i57.tinypic.com/qspcur.jpg

Edited by yamantaka
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According to Strategy Analyzer, this setup in Beans has a 95% win rate since November 2013 and it has performed well live too. Scalping for 2 ticks isn't my favorite way to trade, but it can be profitable with such a high win rate that overwhelms the negative RR. Starts trading at Pit open and stops at 12:00 or whenever it hits your daily targets. Be careful with too much size because slippage is a factor as you can see from the second trade on the entry.

 

http://i59.tinypic.com/t8p8ur.jpg

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Have you checked execution quality (if possible) on such a small renko bar since such a small profit target would require excellent execution quality?

Even with some slippage of a tick or 2, if the momentum is there, capturing a few ticks is doable. On the other hand, if the market is slow and/or trading in a narrow range for some time, it's best to turn of the strategy and wait for momentum/volatility to resume. (In other words, be patient). The "Enable" on /off button serves that purpose.

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This may have been discussed because I didn't read all the posts but I've just realized that what the box is doing it is identifying triangle patterns. The top and bottom of the box are breakouts out of the triangle.

 

On a side note can anyone post the Renkospectrum that yamantaka is using?

 

http://nekaka.com/d/2Eqt30gLUm

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Yamantaka,

 

I am sorry to read that you withdraw from the thread you initiated. I would like to thank you for starting the thread and introducing us to the Box.

I can only hope you may reconsider your decision. Please be aware that I respect whatever you decide

 

Thanks. I feel as though I can't add much more value here and the audience is thinning out.

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Farewell the BOX thread and all the contributors to the the thread! It's time form us to learn from this experience and move on. This was a great learning experience for me, and I am sure it was too for most of you.

 

When yaman first posted his back-testing results of FDAX, the result was "too good to be truth": a one contract trade for 4 months in 2014 would profit over $300,000.00! it that is true, we can take off 90% of the $300,000.00 profit for slippage and still make $30,000.00! Of course we soon realized, that the back-testing and real trade are two different realities!

 

We then learned that the system is just a simple triangle breakout system, that is what really is! without additional rules and filters, there is no way it can be profitable consistently, it would catch winners, but it will have many losers when market is not trending well. What I learned from this, is that, by adding the right filtering conditions and adding the right trade management rules, this can become a consistently profitable system, but it will not be an easy job! Market conditions change all the time, these filtering rules must be changed too, and it won't be easy to define these rules to make the system profitable, if it is so easy, the big financial institutions like Goldman Sachs would not had the need to spend hundreds of millions of dollars to design their quantitative systems.

 

This experience showed us that it is very difficult for us retail traders to develop automated systems that can consistently profitable, it is very difficult to be profitable from trading.

 

I am taking what I learned from the triangle breakout pattern and trying to apply it to my own trading approach. I am starting with using the Renko-spectrum 2-1 chart in ES, only during the regular trading hours; I aim to find 2 triangle setups a day, and use my original trading setups as filter, if they line up, I will take the trades, and only take 2 trades a day. This is what I am working on, it is an experiment, work in progress. I will share any updates I have to the thread.

 

I am doing this manually, not using the Ninjatrader strategies, and not using the box indicator system.

Edited by user33
typos
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