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Anna FBS

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USD/CAD: loonie is searching for a new driver

8/4/2016

 

On the daily chart USD/CAD returned to the levels inside the rising triangle. A break above its upper bordrer will help to restore the medium-term bullish trend. As a result, the pair may realize 161.8% of AB=CD pattern target at 1.3520. On the other hand, decline below the diagonal support will lead to continuation of the decline to 1.2720 (88.6% of the "Shark" pattern target).

 

Screenshot_2016_08_04_07_07_04.png

 

On H1 USD/CAD completed the widenind wedge pattern. After correction to waves 4-5 the beras seized initiative that allowed the pair to reach 127.2% of teh Shark parren target. The pair formed the double bottom and is currently consolidation in the 1.3-1.314 area. The break of this range will determine further dicrection of the pair.

 

Screenshot_2016_08_04_07_07_24.png

 

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9911

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EUR/USD: "Double Top" stopped bullish rally

8/4/2016

 

4-8-2016-EUR-H4.png

 

The price has faced a resistance at 1.1235, which led to form a “V-Top” pattern, so we’ve got the current downward movement. Therefore, bears are likely going to reach a support at 1.1120 in the short term. If we see a pullback from this level, there’ll be an opportunity to have a bullish correction towards a resistance at 1.1222 – 1.1235.

 

4-8-2016-EUR-H1.png

 

As we can see on the one-hour chart, the pair found a support on the 55 Moving Average. Also, there’s a possible “Flag” pattern, so the market is likely going to decline towards a support at 1.1120. However, if a pullback from this support happens afterwards, bulls will probably try to catch a resistance at 1.1196 – 1.1222.

 

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9912

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GBP/USD: consolidation going to be continued

8/4/2016

 

4-8-2016-GBP-H4.png

 

The price is moving up and down along a resistance at 1.3339. So, the pair is likely going to achieve a support near the 55 Moving Average. If bears be stopped here, then an upward movement becomes possible, so we should keep an eye on the closest resistance at 1.3400 – 1.3471.

 

4-8-2016-GBP-H1.png

 

We’ve got a consolidation, but also there’s a local “Double Top”. In this case, bears are likely going to reach a support at 1.3247. At the same time, if we see a pullback from this level, there’ll be a chance to have an upward movement in the direction of the nearest resistance at 1.3370 – 1.3400.

 

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9913

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EUR/USD: wave going to end

8/4/2016

 

Image20160804080930001.png

 

Wave 4 has been ended in a form of a “Double Three”, so we’ve got a pullback from 4/8 Murrey Math Level (P=200). It’s likely that we’ve got wave in progress, which main target is 2/8 Murrey Math Level. If we see a pullback from this level, there’ll be an opportunity to have an upward correction.

 

Image20160804080930002.png

 

As we can see on the one-hour chart, the price has been declining in wave . Therefore, bears are likely going to reach 4/8 Murrey Math Level in the short term. If wave (v) finishes at this level, bulls will probably try to deliver wave [ii].

 

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9914

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EUR/USD: euro has corrected

8/4/2016

 

Technical levels: support – 1.1130/40, 1.1105; resistance – 1.1170, 1.1220.

 

Trade recommendations:

 

1. Buy — 1.1130/40; SL — 1.1110; TP1 — 1.1220; TP2 – 1.1270.

 

Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud; golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the markets overbought is finished.

 

01-eurusdh4(17).png

 

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9917

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GBP/USD: waiting for the end of correction

8/4/2016

 

Technical levels: support – 1.3270; resistance – 1.3370, 1.3480.

 

Trade recommendations:

 

1. Buy — 1.3270; SL — 1.3250; TP1 — 1.3370; TP2 — 1.3480.

 

Reason: a bullish Cloud with growing range; golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the markets overbought is finished.

 

02-gbpusdh4(8).png

 

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9918

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AUD/USD: the Bulls are on the attack

8/4/2016

 

Technical levels: support – 0.7560, 0.7590; resistance – 0.7620.

 

Trade recommendations:

 

1. Buy — 0.7590; SL — 0.7570; TP1 — 0.7680; TP2 — 0.7750.

 

Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud, Senkou Span A and B are growing up; a new golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen.

 

03-audusdh4(3).png

 

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9919

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EUR/AUD reversed from resistance level 1.4900

8/4/2016

 

EUR/AUD reversed from resistance level 1.4900

Next sell target - 1.4500

EUR/AUD continues to fall strongly inside the minor impulse wave (iii) – which began earlier - when the pair reversed down from the resistance zone lying between the upper daily Bollinger Band and the resistance level 1.4900. The active minor impulse wave (iii) belongs to impulse 3 of the intermediate downward impulse wave (3) form the middle of February.

 

EUR/AUD is expected to fall further in the active impulse waves (iii), 3 and (3) toward the next sell target at the pivotal support level 1.4500 (which reversed earlier impulse waves (iii), 1 and (i) in May, April and June, as can be seen below).

 

EURAUD_-_Primary_Analysis_-_Aug-04_1302_PM_(1_day).png

 

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9924

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EUR/CAD reversed from resistance zone

8/4/2016

 

EUR/CAD reversed from resistance zone

Next sell target - 1.4400

EUR/CAD continues to fall after the earlier downward reversal from the resistance zone lying between the resistance level 1.4730 (which has been reversing the price from the middle of May), the upper daily Bollinger Band and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the previous downward impulse from the start of April. The downward reversal from this resistance zone created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Bearish Engulfing.

 

EUR/CAD is likely to fall further toward the next sell target at the support level 1.4400 – the breakout of which can lead to further losses toward the next support level 1.4280.

 

EURCAD_-_Primary_Analysis_-_Aug-04_1304_PM_(1_day).png

 

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9925

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Key option levels: August 4

8/4/2016

 

EUR/USD

 

EURUSDnew(3).png

 

 

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period

Bearish Bearish

Changes in the open interest + 16 208 ↑ + 50 131 ↑

Closest resistance levels 1.1176; 1.1198; 1.1223; 1.1259

Closest support levels 1.1119; 1.1084; 1.1041; 1.0995

Trading recommendations

Baseline scenario Sell pair below 1.1119, with target points at 1.1084 and 1.1041

Alternative scenario Moving above 1.1176 can be considered as a signal to buy the pair, with target at 1.1198 and 1.1223

 

 

USD/JPY

 

USDJPYnew(3).png

 

 

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period

Bullish Neutral

Changes in the open interest + 3 991 ↑ + 1 280 ↑

Closest resistance levels 101.45; 101.77; 102.18; 102.64

Closest support levels 100.74; 100.54; 100.26; 99.88

Trading recommendations

Baseline scenario Long USD/JPY above 101.45, with the target points at 101.77 and 102.18

Alternative scenario Moving below 100.74 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 100.54 and 100.26

 

 

USD/CAD

 

USDCADnew(3).png

 

 

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period

Neutral Bullish

Changes in the open interest + 424 ↑ + 614 ↑

Closest resistance levels 1.3091; 1.3122; 1.3179; 1.3254

Closest support levels 1.3055; 1.3026; 1.2972; 1.2900

Trading recommendations

Baseline scenario Sell USD/CAD below 1.3055, with the target points at 1.3026 and 1.2972

Alternative scenario Moving above 1.3091 can be considered as a signal to buy the pair, with target at 1.3122 and 1.3179

EUR JPY CAD

 

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9926

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USD/JPY & US NFP July Release: It's time for greenback's bulls?

8/5/2016

 

Today at 12:30 GMT will be released the US Non-Farm Employment change, where the markets are expecting a decrease from 287K to 180 for July's reading. However, last month's data was very positive and Wednesday's US ADP data gave some hints that we could see another positive NFP release today. During the week, some Fed's officials have been talking about the good shape that US economy is having nowadays and following a “muted” tone from FOMC minutes, traders will be highly expecting this release.

 

Our technical overview for USD/JPY at H4 chart is calling for further declines, as we have been seeing a bearish consolidation below the 200 SMA, after a failed breakout above that dynamic resistance offered by the moving average. There is a critical support placed around the 100.35 level, where we could expect a breakout only if the US NFP is weaker than expected and eventually it can make new “post-Brexit” lows across the board. The bullish scenario can be calling for a very strong support around the 100.35 level, that could give fresh momentum to the pair in order to rally towards weekly's highs.

 

USDJPYH4(12).png

 

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9927

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EUR/USD is stuck in the dead area

8/5/2016

 

On the daly chart the pair keeps moving in line with scenario we've outlined in the previous article: the recoil down from the upper border of the descending trend channel (painted in red) and the following growth towards 1.1175. If the bulls manage to reach this level and then renew July high, the pair will likely move towards 1.1260 and 1.1340. On the other hand, inability to hold above 1.1114 will show that the buyers are weak.

 

Screenshot_2016_08_05_07_36_09.png

 

On H1 EUR/USD formed descending trend channel. The nearest support levels are at 1.1114 and 1.1082. Look for resistance near 1.1170 and 1.1235.

 

Screenshot_2016_08_05_07_36_31.png

 

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9928

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EUR/USD: bearish wave [iii] going to start soon

8/5/2016

 

Image20160805080324001.png

 

Wave was possible ended yesterday, so there’s time for a local correction. Previously, wave 4 finished in a form of a “Double Three”, so we’ve got a pullback from 4/8 Murrey Math Level (P=200). The main target for wave [ii] is 3/8 Murrey Math Level, which could be a jumping-off point for wave [iii].

 

Image20160805080324002.png

 

As we can see on the one-hour chart, wave (v) of was ended near 4/8 Murrey Math Level. So, the price is likely going to deliver wave [ii] in the short term. If a pullback from 6/8 Murrey Math Level happens afterwards, there’ll be an opportunity to have wave (i).

 

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9929

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GBP/USD: bears took hold of pound

8/5/2016

 

On the daily chart GBP/USD came to the lower border of the medium-term consolidation range of 1.3075-1.3494. The break of support will activate AB=CD pattern with target at 1.2870.

 

Screenshot_2016_08_05_07_46_06.png

 

On H1 the materialization of the models "3 Indians" and "Head and Shoulders" at 161.8% AB=CD target made the pair return inside the 1.3071-1.33 trade channel and settle close to its lower border. The sentiment remains bearish, and the move to 1.316 (23.8%), 1.321 (38.2%), 1.3245 (50%) and 1.328 (61.8%) should be used for opening short positions.

 

Screenshot_2016_08_05_07_46_33.png

 

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9930

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EUR/USD: euro hovered above the cloud

8/5/2016

 

Technical levels: support – 1.1130/40, 1.1105; resistance – 1.1170, 1.1220.

 

Trade recommendations:

 

1. Sell — 1.1170; SL — 1.1190; TP1 — 1.1105; TP2 – 1.1080.

 

Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud, but falling down Senkou Span A; dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen.

 

01-eurusdh4(18).png

 

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9931

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USD/JPY: bearish mood is active

8/5/2016

 

Technical levels: support – 100.80; resistance – 101.50, 101.80.

 

Trade recommendations:

 

1. Sell — 101.50; SL — 101.70; TP1 — 100.60; TP2 — 99.60.

 

Reason: actual dead cross formed by Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; bearish Ichimoku Cloud.

 

04-usdjpyh4(4).png

 

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9932

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EUR/USD: bears dominating after "V-Top" pattern

8/5/2016

 

5-8-2016-EUR-H4.png

 

There’s a “V-Top” pattern, so the price is trading near the Moving Average lines. Therefore, it’s likely that the market is going to decline towards a support at 1.1083 – 1.1059 in the short term. If we see a pullback from this area, a correction price movement will be on the table, so we should keep an eye on the closest resistance at 1.1222 – 1.1235.

 

5-8-2016-EUR-H1.png

 

The price has faced a support on the 89 Moving Average, so we’ve got a local flat in progress. Under these circumstances, the pair is likely going to get a resistance on the 34 Moving Average during the day. However, if a pullback from this line happens afterwards, there’ll be an opportunity to have a decline towards a support at 1.1145 – 1.1032.

 

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9933

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GBP/USD: "Triple Top" points to bear's reappearance

8/5/2016

 

5-8-2016-GBP-H4.png

 

The price was consolidating along a resistance at 1.3339, which ended up by the massive decline. However, bears faced a support at 1.3119, which led to the current local upward movement. So, sellers are likely going to move on. The main intraday target is a support at 1.3015 – 1.2945. Considering a possible pullback from this area, an bullish correction becomes possible later on.

 

5-8-2016-GBP-H1.png

 

We’ve got a “Triple Top” pattern, which led to the yesterday’s dramatically fast downward price movement. Therefore, it’s likely to see a local bullish correction during the day, because there’s a pullback from the nearest support at 1.3116. At the same time, bears are so strong, which makes possible an achievement of the next support at 1.3071 – 1.3017.

 

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9934

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Key option levels: August 5

8/5/2016

 

EUR/USD

 

EURUSD(8).png

 

 

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period

Bearish Bearish

Changes in the open interest + 11 757 ? + 118 596 ?

Closest resistance levels 1.1188; 1.1215; 1.1234; 1.1256

Closest support levels 1.1103; 1.1068; 1.1044; 1.1016

Trading recommendations

Baseline scenario Sell EUR/USD below 1.1103, with target points at 1.1068 and 1.1044

Alternative scenario Moving above 1.1188 can be considered as a signal to buy the pair, with target at 1.1215 and 1.1234

 

 

USD/JPY

 

USDJPY(7).png

 

 

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period

Bullish Neutral

Changes in the open interest + 1 895 ? + 1 287 ?

Closest resistance levels 102.03; 102.44; 102.69; 102.99

Closest support levels 100.68; 100.30; 100.11; 99.88

Trading recommendations

Baseline scenario Long USD/JPY above 102.03, with the target points at 102.44 and 102.69

Alternative scenario Moving below 100.68 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 100.30 and 100.11

EUR JPY

 

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9937Key option levels: August 5

8/5/2016

 

EUR/USD

 

EURUSD(8).png

 

 

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period

Bearish Bearish

Changes in the open interest + 11 757 ? + 118 596 ?

Closest resistance levels 1.1188; 1.1215; 1.1234; 1.1256

Closest support levels 1.1103; 1.1068; 1.1044; 1.1016

Trading recommendations

Baseline scenario Sell EUR/USD below 1.1103, with target points at 1.1068 and 1.1044

Alternative scenario Moving above 1.1188 can be considered as a signal to buy the pair, with target at 1.1215 and 1.1234

 

 

USD/JPY

 

USDJPY(7).png

 

 

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period

Bullish Neutral

Changes in the open interest + 1 895 ? + 1 287 ?

Closest resistance levels 102.03; 102.44; 102.69; 102.99

Closest support levels 100.68; 100.30; 100.11; 99.88

Trading recommendations

Baseline scenario Long USD/JPY above 102.03, with the target points at 102.44 and 102.69

Alternative scenario Moving below 100.68 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 100.30 and 100.11

EUR JPY

 

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9937

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EUR/USD: "Engulfing" set up bullish correction

8/5/2016

 

0508eurusdh4.png

 

There’s a “Hammer” at the local low, which has been confirmed enough. So, it’s likely that the price is going to reach the nearest resistance in the short term. If we see a pullback from this level, there’ll be an opportunity to see a decline towards the nearest “Window”. As we can see on the Daily chart, here’s an “Engulfing”, but its confirmation a quite weak. Therefore, the market is likely going to move up and down between the closest support & resistance levels.

 

0508eurusdh1.png

 

We've got an “Engulfing” on the 89 Moving Average line, but also there’s an unconfirmed “Harami” at the local low. Therefore, the price is likely going to reach the nearest resistance line, which could reverse the price movement into a bearish direction.

 

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9938

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USD/JPY: Moving Average waiting for bulls

8/5/2016

 

0508usdjpyH4.png

 

There's an “Engulfing” at the local high, so the market is likely going to reach the nearest support line in the short term. As we can see on the Daily chart, the last candles are bearish and there isn’t any reversal pattern so far. Also, here’s “Thrusting Line”, but it hasn’t been confirmed yet, so right after a local correction bears will probably try to break the last low.

 

0508usdjpyH1.png

 

We've got a “High Wave” on the 34 Moving Average line, which has confirmed enough. Therefore, it’s likely that the pair is going to reach the 34 Moving Average once again during the day. If we see a pullback from this line, there’ll be a chance to see another bearish rally.

 

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9939

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GBP/NZD under bearish pressure

8/5/2016

 

GBP/NZD under bearish pressure

Next sell targets - 1.8000 and 1.7750

GBP/NZD has been falling in the last few trading sessions inside the intermediate impulse wave (3), which is the part of the primary downward impulse wave ⑤, which started earlier – when the pair reversed down from the resistance zone lying between the round resistance level 1.9000 and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the previous downward impulse from the end of June.

 

GBP/NZD is expected to fall further in the active impulse waves (3) and ⑤ toward the next sell target at the support level 1.8000 – the breakout of which can lead to further losses toward 1.7750 (forecast price for the completion of wave (3)).

 

GBPNZD_-_Primary_Analysis_-_Aug-05_1508_PM_(1_day).png

 

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9940

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EUR/NZD reversed from resistance zone

8/5/2016

 

EUR/NZD reversed from resistance zone

Next sell target - 1.5400

EUR/NZD continues to fall inside the minor impulse wave 3 - which belongs to the intermediate downward impulse (5) from the middle of July. Impulse wave (5) started when the pair reversed down from the resistance zone lying between the resistance level 1.5850 (former support from June), the upper daily Bollinger Band and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the previous sharp downward impulse from the start of May.

 

Given the strength of the downtrend that can be seen on the daily EUR/NZD charts - the pair is likely to fall further to the next sell target at the support level 1.5400.

 

EURNZD_-_Primary_Analysis_-_Aug-05_1505_PM_(1_day).png

 

More:

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9941

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US dollar: outlook for August 8-14

8/5/2016

 

In the first days of the past week the US dollar was still feeling the negative impact of the market’s disappointment with weak American Q2 GDP growth. ISM manufacturing and services PMIs also declined, though the sectors kept growing, just at a slower pace. American labor market data released on Friday brightened the picture. US nonfarm payrolls showed solid gain in jobs in July. NFP came at 255K beating the forecast of 180K. June reading was revised up to 292K. The unemployment rate didn’t decline, but growth of average hourly earnings accelerated to 0.3%.

 

usd_nfp.png

 

As the Bank of England eased monetary policy in the past week, it reminded investors about monetary policy divergence between the Federal Reserve and other central banks. The difference is that the Fed is at least looking for opportunity to tighten policy and this should support the greenback.

 

The market currently sees 9% chance of US rate hike in September. Positive data inflow from the world’s largest economy may increase these expectations and, consequently, demand for the greenback. Next week the most important day in the US economic calendar will be Friday: America will release retails sales, producer prices and preliminary consumer sentiment.

 

US dollar index managed to return above 96.00 after testing levels below 95.00. Resistance is at 97.60 and 98.00.

 

usd_index.png

 

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9942

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EUR/USD: outlook for August 8-14

8/5/2016

 

EUR/USD rose to 6-week highs above 1.12, but 2016 resistance line limited further advance. The pair was constrained on the upside by 100-day MA. All in all, the lines are horizontal, which means that there’s no strong pull for the pair in either direction. Below 1.1100 (50-week MA) the pair will head to the lower border of the recent trading range at 1.1015/00. Next support will be at 1.0960 (June-July support line).

 

Fundamentally there are reasons for the euro to find support at the mentioned levels. As the Bank of England has launched itself into new aggressive monetary stimulus measures, a more moderate approach of the European Central Bank will become distinct – a positive thing for the euro. Problems with European banking sector are not expected to harm the single currency in the near-term as well.

 

Next week watch German industrial production and Sentix investor confidence on Monday, German trade balance on Tuesday, French industrial production on Friday and the euro area’s preliminary GDP on Friday. It will be the second estimate of the region’s economic growth in Q2: according to the initial data GDP growth slowed down from 0.6% to 0.3%.

 

EURUSDDaily(10).png

 

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articles/9943/EURUSDDaily(10).png

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