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GBP/USD: forecast for March 7-13

 

Kira Iukhtenko

 

The past week turned to be positive for the UK pound – the pair managed to rebound from the levels below 1.3900 to the levels above 1.4100. However, the bullish move was paused by the mixed US labor market figures on Friday.

 

Technically, the pair is now testing the levels above 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. What’s more, you may see a clear bullish channel and an inverse “head-and-shoulders” formation on the H4 chart. We see potential for a recovery to 1.4250 on the coming week. Key support is seen at 1.4080.

 

UK economic calendar for the new week is rather light. Watch the UK manufacturing production figures on Wednesday. The market will mostly be driven by the Fed’s expectations – we expect them to decline gradually ahead of the coming March 16 policy meeting in the United States.

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Analytics/2016/03-March/03/GBPUSDH4.png

 

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US Dollar: forecast for March 7-13

 

Kira Iukhtenko

 

On Friday, the bunch of mixed US labor market figures shook the markets. US NFP surprised to the upside, while the average hourly earnings came out below the forecast. In the current conditions, the second indicator is more important for the Federal Reserve, so the demand for the US dollar declined after all.

 

Next week we expect the bearish trend for the US Dollar to continue. Traders expect the Fed to reveal concerns on the prospects of the US economy on the March 16th meeting and delay the next step of policy tightening. US economic calendar for the new week is rather light. On Monday, listen to the FOMC members Brainard and Fisher speaking. On Wednesday, a new portion of the March crude oil inventories data will be released, while on Thursday pay attention to the US unemployment claims.

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Analytics/2016/03-March/03/USD%20index.png

 

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EUR/USD: technical analysis

7 March 2016

Sergey Logachev

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/technical/mar2016/7/7-3-2016-EUR-H4.png

 

The main downward trend has been broken and the price found a resistance on the 55 & 89 Moving Average lines. With this, it’s likely that we will see a decline towards a support at 1.0957. If the bulls takes over and the price starts rising from this level, then it's likely that the pair will test a resistance area between the levels at 1.1032 – 1.1145.

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/technical/mar2016/7/7-3-2016-EUR-H1.png

 

There’s a “Flag” on the one-hour chart, which was finally ended by the bullish rally last Friday towards a resistance between the levels 1.1031 – 1.1145. A “V-Top” pattern was formed afterwards and the price started a downward correction. It’s likely that a decline will go further to an area between the support at 1.0957 and the 89 Moving Average line. However, bulls might come back and try to reach a resistance area between the levels 1.1067 – 1.1113.

 

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GBP/USD: technical analysis

7 March 2016

Sergey Logachev

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/technical/mar2016/7/7-3-2016-GBP-H4.png

 

We’ve got a local upward trend. The market found a resistance at 1.4234 and a correction was started afterwards. It’s likely to see the price a little bit lower, but if the level 1.4172 acts as a support, the new bullish movement might start towards the support area at 1.4305 – 1.4343.

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/technical/mar2016/7/7-3-2016-GBP-H1.png

 

As we can see on the one-hour chart, a “Flag” was ended and the price started rising once again, but then bulls faced with a resistance at 1.4234. It’s likely that a decline will go on to a support at 1.4167, but then buyers might come back and try to reach a resistance area near the trend line.

 

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EUR/USD: candlestick analysis

8 March 2016

Galina Svetlova

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/technical/mar2016/8/0803eurusdH4.png

 

There’s a “Window”, which acts like a resistance. Previously, a “High Wave” pattern was formed on this “Window” area. It’s likely that firstly the price will go to a local correction, but then bulls might come back to the market and will try to achieve the upper “Window”. As we can see on the daily chart, here’s a “Deliberation” pattern, but it hasn't been confirmed yet. So, the current correction has a reason to go on until we’ve got any bearish reversal pattern.

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/technical/mar2016/8/0803eurusdH1.png

 

The upward trend become stronger since the last “Window” has been closed by several bullish candles. It’s possible to see a bearish “Harami” and a local correction towards the “Window”. The rise is likely going to resume afterwards.

 

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EUR/USD: forecast for March 14-20

 

By Elizabeth Belugina

 

This time the ECB’s president Mario Draghi delivered more easing than the market expected. The central bank lowered main interest rate to 0.00%, cut deposit rate to -0.4% and expanded QE program from €60bn to €80bn a month. In addition, the regulator announced new ultra-cheap, 4-year loans to banks, allowing them to borrow from the ECB at negative interest rates.

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Analytics/2016/03-March/10/ECB%20rates.png

 

The expected effect followed, but was extremely short-lived: after sliding to 1.0825 EUR/USD soared to 1.1200. European bank shares gained, but then reversed down and closed at the negative territory.

 

Such reaction of the market means that traders doubt that the ECB’s policy is effective. So far excessive monetary stimulus has failed to revive credit in the euro area. Buying of the euro was triggered by Draghi’s comments that the rates won’t be reduced much further.

 

The single currency may now repeat its December dynamics, when after jumping on the ECB meeting EUR/USD went sideways and stayed in range even after the Federal Reserve’s meeting. The bullish move in the euro could have been in many respects an overreaction. Next week the euro may face negative pressure if the market’s sentiment improves and if the expectations of the Fed’s rate hike this year strengthen. At the same time, the bears probably won’t risk too aggressive shorts.

 

Resistance is at 1.1250 and 1.1300. Higher levels of 1.1375 (February high) and 1.1460/1.1500 (September and October highs) returned into focus, but an increase there is possible only in case of the fix above 1.1250. Support is at 1.1050 (200-day MA), 1.0980, 1.0900.

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Analytics/2016/03-March/10/EURUSD1%20en.png

 

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USD/JPY: forecast for March 14-20

 

By Elizabeth Belugina

 

Japan released weak statistics during the past week. Only the GDP decline in Q4 wasn’t as big as initially seen. The sentiment of the biggest Japanese producers dramatically worsened in the first 3 months of 2016.

 

The meeting of the Bank of Japan will take place on Tuesday. The regulator is expected to keep its policy unchanged, although some analysts think that another cut in interest rates is possible in order to revive the nation’s economy.

 

The current positions of the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan are much alike, and traders have serious doubts about the effectiveness of their policy steps. The euro’s advance after the ECB announced new monetary stimulus measures creates risk of the similar reaction in case the Bank of Japan eases policy. When Japanese central bank reduced deposit rate at the end of January, the yen’s decline on the news was only short-lived. As a result, it’s more likely that the Bank of Japan will decide to save the easing measures for hard times in future. Japanese government bond yields tested record lows in the past week, so many experts think that the BOJ may do more easing only in summer.

 

Without stimulus from the Bank of Japan, USD/JPY chances for growth are limited. The Federal Reserve’s meeting is another important event of the next week. However, even in case of more hawkish comments by Janet Yellen the outlook will be more negative, as the market’s sentiment will worsen affecting USD/JPY.

 

The overall technical outlook for the pair still looks bearish. To change the situation the prices will have to rise above 115.00. Next resistance will be at 116.25 (55-day MA). Another bearish factor is yen’s buying from Japanese exporters ahead of the end of Japanese fiscal year this month. The consolidation range is getting narrower. Support is at 112.50, 111.00 and 110.00.

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Analytics/2016/03-March/10/USDJPYDaily.png

 

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GBP/USD: forecast for March 14-20

 

By Kira Iukhtenko

 

The UK currency extended the upside last week, breaking above 1.4250. The pair holds in a bullish channel since late February and has potential for more recovery next week. Break above 1.4300 will open the way to 1.4350 (61.8% Fibo from the recent decline) and 1.4400 (channel resistance). Support is seen at 1.4250 and 1.4100.

 

From the fundamental viewpoint, we expect the dovish Fed to support the cable next week. The US central bank is expected to underline the increased external risks for the economy on Wednesday. As for the UK economic calendar, watch the labor market figures on Wednesday and the Bank of England meeting on Thursday.

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Analytics/2016/03-March/10/GBP%20chart%20daily.png

 

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GBP/USD: technical analysis

14 March 2016

Sergey Logachev

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/technical/mar2016/14/14-3-2016-GBP-H4.png

 

The market was correcting last Friday. Previously, bulls faced a resistance at 1.4444 and a “V-Top” pattern arrived afterwards. Anyway, it seems like we’ve got a local upward trend here, so the current downward correction is going to end somewhere in the support zone at 1.4343 – 1.4305. If we see a pullback from this area, the rise might resume towards a resistance at 1.4515.

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/technical/mar2016/14/14-3-2016-GBP-H1.png

 

A “Pennant” on the one-hour chart was ended by the extremely fast upward movement. Finally, the price faced a resistance at 1.4444, which led to the current downward correction. It’s likely that bears have enough power to reach a support at 1.4316. If they be stopped by this level, there will be an opportunity for bulls to achieve a resistance at 1.4515.

 

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EUR/USD: consolidation continues

15 March 2016

Sergey Logachev

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/technical/mar2016/15/15-3-2016-EUR-H4.png

 

We’ve got a “V-Top” pattern at the last high, which led to the current downward movement. It’s likely that the market is going to reach a support at 1.1067. If we see a pullback from this level, then bulls might try to reach a resistance area between the levels 1.1245 – 1.1273.

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/technical/mar2016/15/15-3-2016-EUR-H1.png

 

There’s a flat movement between a resistance at 1.1214 and the 55 Moving Average line, which acts as a support. In the short term, bears are likely going to achieve a support area between the levels 1.1067 – 1.1057. If sellers be stopped by this area, then the price might start rising towards a resistance at 1.1245.

 

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GBP/USD: V-top stopped the bulls

15 March 2016

Sergey Logachev

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/technical/mar2016/15/15-3-2016-GBP-H4.png

 

There’s a local “V-Top”, which led to a decline towards to the 89 Moving Average line. It's likely that the current downward movement is going to be deeper. If bears be stopped by the support at 1.4234 – 1.4193, then bulls will have a chance to reach a resistance area between the levels 1.4393 – 1.4444.

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/technical/mar2016/15/15-3-2016-GBP-H1.png

 

The price has faced a resistance at 1.4444 and a “V-Top” pattern arrived afterwards. So, currently we have a decline in progress. The 89 Moving Average line acts as a support. It's likely that the downward movement is going to reach a support area between the levels 1.4234 – 1.4210. If we see a pullback from this area, then bulls will probably return to the market. In this case we should keep in mind the important levels 1.4371 – 1.4393, which can act as a resistance.

 

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3 currencies to buy this spring

15 March 2016

Analysts at Morgan Stanley have picked 3 currencies as the best investments for spring.

 

1. Japanese yen. Japanese investors have large assets abroad and will repatriate their funds. As a result, demand for the yen will increase and it will strengthen despite the Bank of Japan’s efforts to limit its strength.

 

2. Swiss franc. Risks for the euro area will remain negative maintaining demand for the franc as a safe haven.

 

3. US dollar. Demand for American currency will be high because of the lacking good investment opportunities in other markets, especially emerging.

 

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GBP/CAD: sell targets - 1.8800 and 1.8660

16 March 2016

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

 

-GBP/CAD completed minor ABC correction 4

-Next sell targets - 1.8800 and 1.8660

 

GBP/CAD continues to fall after the earlier sharp downward reversal from the resistance zone lying at the intersection of the following resistance levels: the former support trendline of the wide weekly up channel from November of 2014 (acting as resistance now after it was broken by the previous minor impulse wave 3), resistance level 1.9200 and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the earlier downward impulse from February.

 

The downward reversal from the aforementioned resistance zone completed the previous minor ABC correction 4. GBP/CAD is likely to fall further toward the next sell targets at the support levels 1.8800 and 1.8660 (low of impulse 3).

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/DIMA%20CHE/Mar-16%20GBPCAD%20-%20Primary%20Analysis%20-1132%20AM%20(1%20day).png

 

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GBP/USD: sell targets - 1.4000 and 1.3840

16 March 2016

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

 

-GBP/USD falling inside intermediate impulse wave (5)

-Next sell targets - 1.4000 and 1.3840

 

GBP/USD recently reversed down from the resistance zone lying between the resistance level 1.4400 (which reversed the price at the end of February), the upper daily Bollinger Band, 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp downward impulse from December. The downward reversal from this resistance zone created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Bearish Engulfing - completing the previous intermediate ABC correction (4) from last month.

 

GBP/USD is likely to fall further in the active intermediate impulse wave (5) toward the next sell target at the round support level 1.4000 – the breakout of which can lead to further losses toward 1.3840.

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/DIMA%20CHE/Mar-16%20%20GBPUSD%20-%20Primary%20Analysis%20-1129%20AM%20(1%20day).png

 

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EUR/USD: bulls rip the "wedge" to shreds

17 March 2016

Sergey Logachev

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/technical/mar2016/17/17-3-2016-EUR-H4.png

 

The consolidation in a support zone at 1.1145 – 1.1032 was finally ended by the really fast upward movement yesterday, so we’ve got a new high. The price faced a resistance at 1.1245. It’s likely that a correction is going to a support area between the levels 1.1214 – 1.1178. If we see a pullback from this area, then bulls might try to reach a resistance area at 1.1273 – 1.1305.

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/technical/mar2016/17/17-3-2016-EUR-H1.png

 

The downward “Wedge” was broken yesterday. Bulls found a resistance at 1.1245, which led to the current correction. It seems like the bearish movement is going to a support area between the levels 1.1192 – 1.1178. If sellers be stopped here, then buyers can return to the market, so a resistance at 1.1257 – 1.1273 is probably going to be the main target soon.

 

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GBP/USD: thud of hoofs after the "V-Bottom"

17 March 2016

Sergey Logachev

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/technical/mar2016/17/17-3-2016-GBP-H4.png

 

There’s a “V-Bottom” pattern at the local low, which led to the current upward movement. Finally, bulls faced a resistance at 1.4282, so it’s likely that a correction is coming soon. If the price finds a support at 1.4148, then the market is probable going to rise again towards a resistance area at 1.4305 – 1.4343.

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/technical/mar2016/17/17-3-2016-GBP-H1.png

 

All Moving Average lines has been broken as well as the local downward trend line. Bulls found a resistance at 1.4282, so we've got a correction here. It's likely that we'll see the market lower. If sellers be stopped somewhere in a support area at 1.4210 – 1.4172, then buyers will have an opportunity to come back and achieve a resistance area at 1.4305 – 1.4347.

 

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EUR/USD: "window" played into buyers hands

17 March 2016

Galina Svetlova

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/technical/mar2016/17/1703eurusdh4.png

 

The really strong “Window” has acted as a support, which led to a “Harami” pattern, so we’ve got an upward rally. The last candles are bullish and there aren’t any reversal patterns. It’s likely that the market is going to be higher. As we can see on the Daily chart, yesterday a “Three Methods” pattern was finally ended, so the upward movement will probably go on until any bearish pattern arrives.

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/technical/mar2016/17/1703eurusdh1.png

 

The current rally started after a “Doji” was formed on the 89 Moving Average line, which acted as a strong support. The last candles are bullish and we don't have any reversal patterns so far. Despite of a possible downward correction, the market is likely going to be higher in the short term.

 

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USD/JPY: bear's "stars"

17 March 2016

Galina Svetlova

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/technical/mar2016/17/1703usdjpyH4.png

 

There’s an “Evening Star” at the last high, which led to the current bearish movement. It’s likely to see a local correction, but then the market is probably going to fall even lower. As we can see on the Daily chart, the “Window” was broken and today’s candle has a chance to be closed below it.

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/technical/mar2016/17/1703usdjpyH1.png

 

We’ve got a “Shooting Star” at the last high and as we can see bears like it so much. A “Hammer” has just arrived, but a confirmation hasn't formed yet. So, the main expectation is to see more selling pressure, but a local correction is a still possible.

 

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GBP/AUD: sell target - 1.8600

17 March 2016

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

 

-GBP/AUD reached sell target 1.9000

-Next sell target - 1.8600

 

GBP/AUD has been falling sharply in the last few trading sessions - breaking through the support levels 1.9280 and 1.9000 (previous sell target set in our earlier forecast for this currency pair). The breakout of these support levels accelerated the active impulse wave (v) – which belongs to the sharp minor impulse wave 5 from the start of February (which previously broke the daily down channel from August).

 

GBP/AUD is likely to fall further to the next sell target at the support level 1.8600 (forecast price calculated for the termination of the active minor impulse wave 5).

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/DIMA%20CHE/Mar-17%20GBPAUD%20-%20Primary%20Analysis%20-%201117%20AM%20(1%20day).png

 

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USD/CAD: sell target - 1.2850

17 March 2016

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

 

-USD/CAD reached sell target 1.3200

-Next sell target - 1.2850

 

USD/CAD recently broke sharply below the support level 1.3200, which was set as the sell target in our previous forecast for this currency pair. The breakout of the support level 1.3200 intensified the bearish pressure on USD/CAD, accelerating the active minor impulse wave 3, which belongs to the intermediate ©-wave of the primary ABC correction ② from the middle of January.

 

The pair today broke the round support level 1.3000. If the price closes today below 1.3000 - USD/CAD can then be expected to fall further in the active impulse waves 3 and © toward the next sell target at the pivotal support level 1.2850 (which stopped the previous intermediate ABC correction (4) in last October).

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/DIMA%20CHE/Mar-17%20%20USDCAD%20-%20Primary%20Analysis%20-%20%201118%20AM%20(1%20day).png

 

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EUR/USD: correction in a range of "flag"

18 March 2016

Sergey Logachev

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/technical/mar2016/18/18-3-2016-EUR-H4.png

 

The market has faced a resistance at 1.1337, which led to the current correction. It’s likely that the downward movement is going to reach a support area between the levels 1.1305 – 1.1273. If bears be stopped somewhere in here, then bulls might try to achieve a resistance area at 1.1376 – 1.1409.

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/technical/mar2016/18/18-3-2016-EUR-H1-1.png

 

The price has been consolidating since we’ve got a resistance at 1.1337. There’s a possible “Flag” in progress, so the price is likely going to reach the lower side of this pattern. If we see a pullback from it, then bulls might come back to the market.

 

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https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8297

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GBP/USD: bearish correction

18 March 2016

Sergey Logachev

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/technical/mar2016/18/18-3-2016-GBP-H4.png

 

The market was rising yesterday and finally bulls reached a resistance at 1.4515, which led to the current correction. It’s likely to see the pair lower. If the price finds a support at 1.4436 – 1.4393, then buyers are probably going to achieve a resistance at 1.4577.

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/technical/mar2016/18/18-3-2016-GBP-H1-1.png

 

All Moving Average lines were broken by the fast bullish rally. There's a possible “Flag” pattern, so the price is likely going to reach its lower side near a support area at 1.4436 – 1.4393. In case of a pullback from this zone, bulls will have an opportunity to start a new upward movement.

 

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EUR/USD: bear's "pole star"

18 March 2016

Galina Svetlova

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/technical/mar2016/18/1803eurusdh4.png

 

The price has found a resistance, which brought some reversal patterns such as a “High Wave” and a “Tweezers”. The last candles are bearish, so the current correction is likely going to the nearest support line. However, we haven’t got any reversal patterns yet on the Daily chart. It means that we can see the market higher after the downward correction ends.

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/technical/mar2016/18/1803eurusdh1.png

 

There’re a “Tweezers’, a “Shooting star” and a “Harami” at the last high. The last candles are bearish, so we can expect that the current correction is going to be continued towards the nearest support. If a pullback appears afterwards, then bulls might start a new rally.

 

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USD/JPY: new "engulfing bearish"

18 March 2016

Galina Svetlova

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/technical/mar2016/18/1803usdjpyH4.png

 

There’re a couple of reversal patterns such as a “High Wave” and an “Engulfing Bullish”, so it’s possible that we’ll see an upward movement towards the nearest resistance line. Yesterday’s bearish candle was closed under the “Window” on the Daily chart. It’s likely that we’re going to have a local correction, but bears have an opportunity to return to the market afterwards.

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/technical/mar2016/18/1803usdjpyH1.png

 

We’ve got an “Engulfing Bullish” and a “High Wave” at the last low, which have been confirmed. In case of the local “Engulfing Bearish” it’s likely to have a downward movement, but it’s a still possible to see bigger bullish correction.

 

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https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8301

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AUD/CAD: buy target – 1.0000

21 March 2016

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

 

-AUD/CAD reversed from support area

-Next buy target – 1.0000

 

AUD/CAD continues to rise – following the earlier upward reversal from the support area lying at the intersection of the support level 0.9900, the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp minor impulse wave 1 from the end of February and the former resistance trendline of the recently broken daily down channel from December (acting as support now after it was broken). The upward reversal from this support zone started the active minor (b)-wave.

 

AUD/CAD is likely to rise further in the active minor (b)-wave toward the next buy target at the parity. Buy stop-loss can be placed below the aforementioned support level 0.9900.

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/DIMA%20CHE/Mar-21%20AUDCAD%20-%20Primary%20Analysis%20-%201137%20AM%20(1%20day).png

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8330

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