Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

 

GBP/USD: forecast for February 22-28

 

Kira Iukhtenko

 

UK currency attempted to recover some ground over the past week, but failed to overcome the 1.4400 mark. UK retail sales surprised the market to the upside, but the fears of Brexit are dominating the scene. Cable fell below 1.4300 on the increased volatility.

 

If the compromise decision will be found, GBP/USD will get the chance to grow towards the 1.4500 mark. However, we recommend selling the pair from these levels. If there is no decision on the table, the British currency will extend the decline on the new week. Break below the 1.4230 mark will open the way for a decline to 1.4080.

 

Economic calendar for the new week is rather light. The only event to watch is the second estimate of the US Q4 GDP on Thursday. According to the preliminary estimates, the economy rose by 0.5% during that period.

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Analytics/2016/02-February/18/GBP%20chart.png

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7972

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

 

GBP/JPY: sell target - 155.00

23 February 2016

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

 

-GBP/JPY reached sell target 160.00

-Next sell target - 155.00

 

GBP/JPY continues to fall after the recent breakout of the round support level 160.00 (which stopped the previous minor impulse wave (i) and which was set as the sell target in our previous forecast for this currency pair). The breakout of the support level 160.00 is expected to further accelerate the active impulse wave (iii) which belongs to impulse 3 of the intermediate ©-wave from last November.

 

GBP/JPY is likely to fall further in the active impulse waves (iii), 3 and © toward the next sell target at the support level 155.00. Sell stop-loss can be placed at half the daily ATR above the recently broken price level 160.00.

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/DIMA%20CHE/GBPJPY%20-%20Primary%20Analysis%20-%20Feb-23%200910%20AM%20(1%20day).png

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8002

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

 

GBP/CAD: sell target - 1.9200

23 February 2016

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

 

-GBP/CAD falling inside primary impulse wave ③

-Next sell target - 1.9200

 

GBP/CAD recently fell sharply – following the earlier sharp downward reversal from the resistance zone lying between the resistance levels 1.9720 (previous sell target set for this currency pair) 1.9900. This is the former strong support zone which has been reversing the price from last October, as can be seen from the daily GBP/CAD chart below. The latest downward reversal from this resistance zone accelerated the active primary impulse wave ③.

 

With the daily Momentum recently reaching new yearly lows - GBP/CAD can be expected to fall further to the next sell target at the support level 1.9200 (target price for the completion of impulse ③).

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/DIMA%20CHE/GBPCAD%20-%20Primary%20Analysis%20-%20Feb-23%200911%20AM%20(1%20day).png

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8003

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

 

EUR/JPY: sell targets - 122.00 and 121.00

24 February 2016

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

 

-EUR/JPY reached sell target 126.00

-Next sell targets - 122.00 and 121.00

 

EUR/JPY has been under strong bearish pressure lately – following the earlier breakout of the support zone lying between the support level 126.00 (previous sell target set in our earlier forecast for this currency pair) and the lower support trendline of the wide daily down channel from last June, as can be seen below. The breakout of this support zone greatly accelerated the active impulse waves 5 and (3).

 

EUR/JPY is set to fall further to the next sell target at the support levels 122.00 and 121.00 (target price calculated for the completion of the active impulse wave (3)).

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/DIMA%20CHE/EURJPY%20-%20Primary%20Analysis%20-%20Feb-24%201112%20AM%20(1%20day).png

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8023

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

 

GBP/USD: sell target - 1.3800

24 February 2016

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

 

-GBP/USD reached sell target 1.4100

-Next sell target - 1.3800

 

GBP/USD recently fell sharply – after the earlier breakout of the support level 1.4100 (low of the previous minor impulse wave from January), which was set as the sell target for this currency pair. The breakout of the support level 1.4100 accelerated the active minor impulse wave 5, which belongs to the intermediate downward impulse wave (3) from the middle of October.

 

Considering the accelerating downward Momentum - GBP/USD is likely to fall further in the active impulse waves 5 and (3) toward the next sell target at the support level 1.3800 (target price for the termination of the active intermediate impulse wave (3)). Strong resistance now stands at 1.4100.

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/DIMA%20CHE/GBPUSD%20-%20Primary%20Analysis%20-%20Feb-24%201110%20AM%20(1%20day).png

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8022

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

 

GOLD: weekly wave analysis

24 February 2016

 

Daily. The pair keeps forming the final wave [E] of the sloping triangle. Let’s review the internal structure of this wave at Н4.

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/%D0%92%D0%BE%D0%BB%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%BE%D0%B9/Petukhov_23February/xauusd1.PNG

 

H4. The pair is likely forming a usual zigzag (Y). Within this zigzag the pair finished the wave A and we are now witnessing the development of the corrective wave B. When the sideways wave is completed, the market’s growth will resume.

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/%D0%92%D0%BE%D0%BB%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%BE%D0%B9/Petukhov_23February/xauusd2.PNG

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8016

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

 

Forex trading plan for February 25

 

 

Oil went under renewed selling pressure as Saudi Arabia ruled out any production cuts. US dollar index is recovering. Watch American durable goods and unemployment claims figures on Thursday. The forecast is rather good.

 

GBP/USD breached 1.4000 to the downside. The pound keeps suffering because of Brexit fears. The falling oil prices add to the bearish pressure on the British currency. The UK will publish second release of GDP for Q4. No revisions to 0.5% economic growth are expected. Fundamentals don’t offer support for sterling. The currency is oversold in the short term and there’s bullish divergence on the daily chart, but this may offer only some very short-term relief. Resistance is at 1.4000 (psychological level, look for new shorts on the pullback up here) and 1.4080 (January 21 low). On the downside below 1.3880 focus on 1.3680/55 (2001 low, March 2009 low).

 

EUR/USD fell to support at 1.0960/40 (support line, 50% Fibo of advance since December), where it should find some support. The single currency is also feeling negative effects of concerns that Britain will leave the EU. The loss of this support will bring the pair down to 1.0830/00. Strong resistance is at 1.1050 (200-day MA). As for USD/JPY, decline below 112.00 opens the way down towards 111.00 and 110.50.

 

The advance of AUD/USD stalled ahead of 200-day MA. Support is at 0.7150 (100-day MA) and 0.7100. Resistance is at 0.7240 and 0.7275. Australia will release extremely important private capital expenditure figures at 00:30 GMT. The data includes the actual investments made by Australian companies in Q4 as well as investment plans for 2016-17.

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8026

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

 

NZD/JPY: buy targets - 76.80 and 78.00

26 February 2016

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

 

-NZD/JPY reversed from strong support zone

-Next buy targets - 76.80 and 78.00

 

NZD/JPY recently reversed up sharply from the strong support zone lying between the support levels 74.40 and 73.20. This support zone earlier reversed the previous waves ①, (1) and 1, as can be seen from the daily NZD/JPY chart below. The upward reversal form this support zone created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Morning Star – the middle candle of which is also the Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern – Hammer.

 

Given the strength of the aforementioned support zone - NZD/JPY is likely to rise further from the current levels toward the next buy targets at the resistance levels 76.80 and 78.00.

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/DIMA%20CHE/NZDJPY%20-%20Primary%20Analysis%20-%20Feb-26%201005%20AM%20(1%20day).png

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8049

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

 

US Dollar: forecast for Feb 29 - Mar 6

 

By Kira Iukhtenko

 

Last week the US Dollar extended the upside for a second week in a row, supported by the strong USD figures. According to the second estimate, the US economy rose by 1% in Q4. What’s more, personal spending and durable goods orders have also shown significant improvement.

 

US dollar index recovered above 98 pips and remains in a bullish channel. Market gained 61.8% Fibonacci from the early 2016 drop in the recent two weeks. Are the bulls retaking control over the market?

 

It’s all not so easy. We have to watch the new range of the economic data on the new week. Strong figures could raise expectations for a Fed’s rate hike in March and boost the US currency. Weak data will disappoint and cap the USD upside.

 

Watch the US manufacturing PMI on Tuesday (forecast – upbeat) and the non-manufacturing PMI on Thursday (forecast – downbeat). On Friday, the markets will focus on the labor market figures. NFP is expected to come at 195K in February (up from the January reading). However, average hourly earnings figure could become a negative factor for the greenback – growth is expected to have slowed to 0.2%.

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Analytics/2016/02-February/29/USD%20index%20daily.png

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8079

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

 

GBP/USD: forecast for Feb 29 - Mar 6

 

By Kira Iukhtenko

 

British pound fell dramatically last week, breaking below the 1.3900 mark (lowest since 2010). The cable is losing ground amid increased uncertainty about the June referendum outcome. According to the most recent polls, 38% of respondents support the the Brexit, while 37% prefer to stay in the European Union.

 

Bearish momentum in GBP/USD remains strong. There are no fundamental reasons for the market to reverse until we reach 1.3500 (2009 low). The pair is clearly oversold, but the market is now moved more by the market sentiment, then by the technical factors. Local resistance is seen at 1.4080.

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Analytics/2016/02-February/29/GBP%20h4%20chart.png

 

Economic calendar for the new week is rather light. We’ll watch a block of PMI indices from Tuesday to Thursday. According to the official forecasts, manufacturing and services indices have weakened in February.

 

You should also remember about the US labor market figures on Friday. This is something that could trigger a bullish correction. Average hourly earnings are expected to have declined.

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Analytics/2016/02-February/29/GBP%20monthly%20chart.png

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8078

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

 

USD/JPY: forecast for Feb. 29 - Mar. 6

 

By Elizabeth Belugina

 

USD/JPY for the second time managed to jump up from 111.00. The advance was triggered by the good US data on Friday – GDP growth for Q4 was revised up, and consumer sentiment was favorable. In Japan industrial production has gained pace, though retail sales once again disappointed.

 

Resistance in the 114.00/115.00 area is strong. Poor risk sentiment is the main reason behind demand for the yen as a safe haven. The outcome of G20 meeting, which may have changed the situation, didn’t impress investors much. On the one hand the policymakers gave a rather good estimate of global economy and finance. On the other hand, there are serious doubts that coordinated action will be taken if necessary. Fiscal stimulus is not planned, so all care on the well-being of the economies will lie on the central banks, in this case on the Bank of Japan. Taking into account the fact that Japanese central bank has few instruments left, the yen might stick to the current levels.

 

As a result, in order to change this negative risk averse picture, the bulls require good data from America and China. This week the US will release PMI and NFP. Also don’t miss Chinese statistics on Tuesday and Thursday. Japanese economic calendar once again doesn’t represent much interest.

 

In the coming days we expect the 114.50/111.00 range to persist.

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Analytics/2016/02-February/25/USDJPYDaily.png

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8077

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

 

EUR/USD: forecast for Feb. 29 - Mar. 6

 

By Elizabeth Belugina

 

EUR/USD made a breakthrough below 1.0960 on Friday (trend line support from December and 50% Fibo). German retail sales increased, but import prices fell – a sign of deflation pressure. Flash inflation figures for February also came out much weaker than expected. Core inflation for February was only 0.7% compared with 1% in January. It means that investors will expect more action from the European Central Bank – weak price growth allows the regulator to ease policy.

 

The single currency will have to feel the pressure ahead of the ECB upcoming meeting next Thursday, March 10. Concerns about potential Brexit (Britain leaving the European Union) also affect the euro. This week the euro area’s economic calendar will be light. No changes in the weak region’s final PMIs due on Tuesday are expected. Pay more attention to the US statistics, especially PMIs on Tuesday and Thursday and NFP on Friday.

 

The pair closed the week below 55-week MA (1.1025). Technical picture has turned mildly bearish. The euro will likely slide to 1.0830 (61.8% Fibo) /1.0800. If the negative pressure strengthens, the next level to watch will be 1.0710. Resistance is at 1.1000 and 1.1050. The bulls have to push the price above the latter in order to return the lost powers.

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Analytics/2016/02-February/25/EURUSDDaily.png

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8076

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

 

Forex trading plan for March 1

 

The meeting of G20 finance ministers brought no big results disappointing the market. The People’s Bank of China cut the reserve requirement ratio in order to calm down the markets and improve sentiment. US data releases were negative on Monday: pending home sales contracted by 2.5% in January, and Chicago PMI came at 47.5 vs. the forecast of 51.2. On Tuesday watch Chinese official and Caixin Manufacturing PMIs: these releases will have big impact on the market’s mood.

 

USD/JPY recoiled down from 114.00. Traders bought Japanese currency as a refuge on the back of the falling Asian shares. Support is at 112.00. The pair is expected to maintain sideways trading in the 114.40/111.00 area.

 

AUD/USD has support at 0.7110/00. The currency failed to overcome 200-day MA (0.7265). The Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its interest rate decision at 03:30 GMT. The RBA is expected to keep rates unchanged. If 0.7100 holds, Aussie will be able to recover to 0.7200 and 0.7240. Below 0.7100 AUD/USD will fall to 0.7070 and 0.7015.

 

EUR/USD opened with a gap down and then failed to return above the former support at 1.0960. The region’s worse-than-expected inflation data sent the single currency down to 1.0860. On Tuesday the euro area will release final manufacturing PMIs for February. No changes of the weaker data are expected. The focus is on 1.0830/00. After that the next support will be at 1.0710.

 

GBP/USD remained under pressure after it closed below 1.3900 on Friday. The pound was under pressure as polls showed that the “out” vote is becoming grows in popularity. At the same time, GBP/USD is very oversold, but will find resistance at 1.4000 and 1.4080. Support is at 1.3800. British pound looks more vulnerable against Japanese yen. Britain will release manufacturing PMI at 09:30 GMT.

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8082

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

 

USD/JPY: candlestick analysis

1 March 2016

Galina Svetlova

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/technical/mar2016/1/0103usdjpyH4.png

 

There’s a “Bullish Harami” at the last low, so the current correction will probably go higher. It’s likely to see any bearish candle patterns on the 55 Moving Average. As we can see on the daily chart, there’s a strong support by the “Window” and previously formed the “Hummer” and “ Tweezers” are still actual.

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/technical/mar2016/1/0103usdjpyH1.png

 

We’ve got a “Harami” at the local low and all last candles are strongly bullish. At the same time, it’s likely that any bearish candle pattern arrives afterwards. If so, the market might go into a local downward correction towards the moving average lines.

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8092

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

 

EUR/USD: candlestick analysis

1 March 2016

Galina Svetlova

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/technical/mar2016/1/0103eurusdH4.png

 

The price faced a support at the last “Window” zone, where a “Hammer” was formed previously. It’s likely to see an upward correction towards the level of “Three Methods” pattern and continue the main bearish trend afterwards. As we can see on the daily chart, there’s a possible ending of “Thrusting Line” pattern, so the market can go lower to the nearest support line.

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/technical/mar2016/1/0103eurusdH1.png

 

There’s an “Inverted Hammer” at the last low, which entered the price into an upward correction. It’s likely that the price will find a resistance on the 34 Moving Average. Also, here’s a possibility to see a bearish reversal pattern on this line.

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8091

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

 

GBP/USD: technical analysis

1 March 2016

Sergey Logachev

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/technical/mar2016/1/1-3-2016-GBP-H4.png

 

The pair has a downward trend, which faced a support at 1.3878 and the price started a correction afterwards. There’s a “Flag” pattern, so it's likely to see a downward movement to a support area between the levels 1.3834 - 1.3681 until we've got any bullish reversal pattern. If so, the market might start rising towards a resistance area at 1.3931 – 1.3958.

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/technical/mar2016/1/1-3-2016-GBP-H1.png

 

There's a local downward trend on the one-hour chart. The price found a support at 1.3878 and a “Double Bottom” pattern has been formed. Moreover, here’s a “Pennant” pattern as well. It's likely that the pair will go higher to a resistance area between the levels 1.3958 – 1.4026. However, the price might go to a new downward movement afterwards to a support area under the level 1.3824.

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8089

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

 

EUR/USD: technical analysis

1 March 2016

Sergey Logachev

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/technical/mar2016/1/1-3-2016-EUR-H4.png

 

The market had been falling down since last Friday. The price found a support at 1.0858, which entered the price into a consolidation phase. As far as we’ve got a “Rising Wedge” and a broken up trend, it’s likely to see more selling pressure in the short term. If the pair reaches a support at 1.0809 – 1.0776, it could be a start for a correction towards to a resistance area between the levels 1.0858 – 1.0922.

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/technical/mar2016/1/1-3-2016-EUR-H1.png

 

The price has found a support at 1.0858 on the one-hour chart and a consolidation was started from this level. There’s a possible “Flag” pattern in progress, so it’s likely that the price will go higher towards a resistance area between the 34 Moving Average line and the level 1.0922. The price might start falling down afterwards to a support area between the levels 1.0858 – 1.0809.

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8088

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

 

GBP/СHF: buy target - 1.4000

1 March 2016

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

 

-GBP/СHF reversed from strong support zone

-Next buy target - 1.4000

 

GBP/СHF continues to rise after the earlier upward reversal from the strong support zone surrounding the long-term support level 1.3800 (which also previously reversed the earlier intermediate ABC correction (2) in May of 2015, as can be seen from the daily GBP/СHF chart below). This support zone was further strengthened by the lower daily Bollinger Band.

 

Given the strength of the support zone near 1.3800 - GBP/СHF can be expected to rise further from the current levels toward the next buy target at the round resistance level 1.4000 – the breakout of which can lead to further gains toward 1.4150.

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/DIMA%20CHE/Mar-01%20GBPCHF%20%20(1%20day).png

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8095

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

 

Forex trading plan for March 2

 

By Kira Iukhtenko

 

US Dollar gained additional support on Tuesday after the unexpectedly strong US manufacturing PMI release. USD index keeps on rising above the 98 figure and we see space for more USD upside this week. Watch the ADP NFP and crude oil inventories figures on Wednesday.

 

EUR/USD is testing the 1.0850 support, despite the upeat euro zone’s labor market figures. Euro is expected to decline ahead of the ECB March 10th meeting. On Wednesday, pay attention to the euro zone’s PPI – more weakness is expected. We are targeting 1.0500 in the medium term.

 

As we expected, GBP/USD is moving to the downside. Sales were triggered by the weak manufacturing PMI. The pair attempted to recover above 1.4000 earlier in the day, but came under renewed bearish pressure. Next bearish target lies at 1.3830. Watch the UK construction PMI tomorrow (forecast – upbeat). We are targeting 1.3500 in the medium term as the Brexit topic will dominate the headlines in the coming weeks.

 

AUD/USD is trading slightly above the 0.7100 mark and has potential for more downside. Australia is scheduled to release Q4 GDP on Wednesday – growth is expected to have slowed to 0.5%. USD/JPY remains supported, but the greenback is still not too confident to break out of the sideways channel. We need a break above 114.00 to confirm the reversal.

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8099

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

 

EUR/USD: technical analysis

2 March 2016

Sergey Logachev

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/technical/mar2016/2/2-3-2016-EUR-H4.png

 

There's a local downward trend on the four-hour chart, but yesterday we've got a flat, which faced a support at 1.0858. As far as we’ve got a “Rising Wedge”, it’s likely to see more selling presuare towards a support at 1.0809. The market might start rising afterwards to a resistance at 1.0922.

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/technical/mar2016/2/2-3-2016-EUR-H1.png

 

The price has found a support at the area 1.0858 - 1.0809 on the one-hour chart. An upward correction was started after a “V-Bottom” has been formed. It’s likely that the pair will go higher towards a resistance area between the 34 Moving Average line and the level 1.0911. The price might start falling down afterwards to a support at 1.0809.

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8102

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

 

GBP/USD: technical analysis

3 March 2016

Sergey Logachev

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/technical/mar2016/3/3-3-2016-GBP-H4.png

 

The price has been rising since a “Triple Bottom” was formed at the last low. The local downward trend has been broken, so it’s likely to see a rise towards a resistance area between the levels 1.4148 – 1.4172. If we see a pullback from these levels, the market might start falling down towards a support between the levels 1.4042 – 1.3958.

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/technical/mar2016/3/3-3-2016-GBP-H1.png

 

There’s a consolidation in progress along the support 1.4078. Previously, the local downward trend has been broken. It’s likely to see a bearish movement to a support area between the levels 1.4152 – 1.4167. However, bulls might come back and try to reach a resistance area between the level 1.4018 and the 55 Moving Average line.

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8116

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

 

EUR/USD: technical analysis

3 March 2016

Sergey Logachev

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/technical/mar2016/3/3-3-2016-EUR-H4.png

 

We’ve got a local downward trend on the four-hour chart. Yesterday the price was going up and down in a flat and finally reached a support at 1.0858. It’s likely to see a bearish movement to a support at 1.0809, but then the market might start rising towards a resistance at 1.0922.

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/technical/mar2016/3/3-3-2016-EUR-H1.png

 

The pair has been found a support at 1.0834 and a “V - Top” pattern was formed afterwards, so the market had some reasons to start rising. It's likely that the price will go lower to a support at 1.0809. However, bulls might come back and try to reach a resistance at the downward trend between the levels 1.0858 – 1.0880.

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8115

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

 

Forex trading plan for March 4

 

Kira Iukhtenko

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J3a5ftHslmY

 

Demand for the US Dollar weakened after the weak unemployment claims figures on Thursday. Block of labor market data on Friday is now in focus – these are the figures that will define the further market dynamics ahead of the Fed’s Mach 16 meeting. NFP are expected to come at 195K in February, while the average hourly earnings are forecasted to surprise to the downside. We expect USD to recover some ground ahead of the release.

 

EUR/USD has recovered above 1.0900, but remains in a bearish channel. Strong resistance lies at 1.0950, we expect a break lower from here on Friday. Strong support – local low at 1.0820.

 

GBP/USD is developing a bullish correction and has recovered above 1.4150.This is where 38.2% Fibonaccilies. The bullish momentum remains strong as of now. Daily close above 1.4100 will confirm and inverse “head-and-shoulders” formation.Support is seen at 1.4080 and 1.4040.

 

AUD/USD is developing a bullish trend. However, resistance at 0.7380/90 could limit the upside. USD/JPY turned down to 114.00. The US labor market figures could trigger a new wave of buying.

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8127

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

 

USD/JPY: forecast for March 7-13

 

By Elizabeth Brelugina

 

US labor market data turned out to be mixed. Despite strong Nonfarm Payrolls, average hourly earnings declined. As a result, the level of 115.00 (38.2% of February decline) still looks like a hard obstacle. Only a daily fix above this point will return power to the bulls. On the downside, support lies at 113.00, 112.20 ahead of 111.00.

 

In the meantime, the market is starting to expect more action from the Bank of Japan and this is why the pair is trying to stabilize. There’s information that an advocate of aggressive monetary easing may join the central bank’s board at the end of March. The next Bank of Japan’s meeting will be on March 15.

 

The Bank of Japan’s Governor Kuroda will speak on Monday. A block of Japanese economic statistics is due on Tuesday.

 

The market’s risk sentiment will also be important for the dynamics of USD/JPY. Chinese National People’s Congress will take place on Saturday. If the nation announces measures to support economy, including fiscal stimulus, the market’s risk appetite will revive reducing demand for the yen as a safe haven.

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Analytics/2016/03-March/03/USDJPYDaily.png

 

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Forex Analytics

 

EUR/USD: forecast for March 7-13

 

By Elizabeth Belugina

 

EUR/USD tested 1.0825, but found some support because of the general weakness in the US dollar.

 

The highlight of the week will be the European Central Bank’s meeting on Thursday. The ECB President Mario Draghi said this week that the region’s growth and inflation outlook became worse and that the regulator will have to consider these negative developments at March meeting. European inflation turned negative in February: consumer prices fell by 0.2%.

 

As a result, the possibility of more easing from the ECB on March 10 is almost 100%. The main question is how much the ECB will do. Traders are quite sure of a 10-basis-point cut. Other options available to the central bank include technical changes to quantitative easing (QE) program or an increase in monthly QE purchases from the current level of 60 billion euro. It’s clear that larger QE will drag the euro down, while the minor changes won’t be an obstacle for the bulls. In addition, European banks complain that negative interest rates are affecting their profitability, so the ECB may announce a multi-tier deposit rate system. Such step will encourage euro-funded carry trade and, consequently, increase bearish pressure on the euro.

 

In our view, the ECB remembers how it disappointed the market in December when it delivered a too small easing package and will try not to repeat its mistake. The base scenario thus will be to sell the single currency on the event. The euro is vulnerable versus Australian dollar and other higher-yielding commodity currencies.

 

Resistance is at 1.1050, 1.1165 and 1.1250. Support is at 1.0830 and 1.0710.

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Analytics/2016/03-March/03/EURUSDDaily.png

 

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