Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

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Forex Analytics

 

Forex trading plan for January 29

28 January 2016

By Kira Iukhtenko

 

EUR/USD is trying to recover on the back of the overall USD weakness, but remains capped by the 1.0950 mark (trend line). Weak German CPI and ECB easing expectations are a limiting factor. However, we could jump to 1.1000 on Friday on the US GDP. The US economic growth is expected to have slowed down to 0.8% in Q4.

 

GBP/USD recovered after the UK GDP came out in line with forecasts. The pair is now testing the 0.4350/60 resistance area. Fix higher would be a great signal to go long for the pair.

 

The market expected the BOJ meeting on Friday as well. USD/JPY is trading above 118 yen as we write. However, if BOJ gives no hints on a potential easing, the pair could lose some positions and slip into the 118-116 yen range.

 

As for AUD/USD, this is the champion of the week. The pair is now trading in an invers head-and-shoulders formation. Target lies at 0.7280. Weak USD and recovery of the commodity market creates room for a higher Aussie correction.

 

More:

URL=https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7723]https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7723[/url]

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Forex Analytics

 

AUD/JPY: buy target - 88.00

29 January 2016

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

 

-AUD/JPY rising inside minor corrective wave (iv)

-Next buy target - 88.00

 

AUD/JPY continues to rise sharply inside the 4th minor corrective wave (iv) – which started earlier – when the pair reversed up from the support zone lying between the lower daily Bollinger Band and the major round support level 80.00 (as can be seen from the daily AUD/JPY chart below). The upward reversal from this support zone created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Hammer.

 

AUD/JPY is likely to rise further in the active minor correction 4 toward the next buy target at the resistance level 88.00 (intersecting with the resistance trendline of the daily down channel from November of 2014 and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the previous downward impulse from the top of this down channel).

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/DIMA%20CHE/AUDJPY%20-%20Primary%20Analysis%20-%20Jan-29%201040%20AM%20(1%20day).png

 

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https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7728

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Forex Analytics

 

CAD/JPY: buy target - 87.30

29 January 2016

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

 

-CAD/JPY reached sell targets 80.00 and 79.00

-Next buy target - 87.30

 

CAD/JPY continues to rise strongly inside the 4th minor correction 4 – which started previously – when the pair reversed up with the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Hammer from the support zone lying between the support levels 80.00 and 79.00 (both of which were set as the sell targets in our previous forecast for this currency pair). The price then broke through the next resistance levels 84.00 and 85.00.

 

CAD/JPY is likely to rise further to the next buy target at the resistance level87.30 (previous monthly low from August, intersecting with the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the previous extended downward impulse wave from June of 2015).

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/DIMA%20CHE/CADJPY%20-%20Primary%20Analysis%20-%20Jan-29%201045%20AM%20(1%20day).png

 

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https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7729

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Forex Analytics

 

USD/JPY: forecast for February 1-7

 

By Elizabeth Belugina

 

The Bank of Japan reduced the deposit interest rate to the negative level of -0.1% and left the door for more cuts open.

 

The regulator’s decision to turn to an even more aggressive loose monetary policy is caused by the turbulence at global financial markets. Concerns about slowing global economic growth, the problems of China and the decline of oil prices – all of it prevents Japan from attaining the 2% inflation mark, which is one of the key goals of Japanese central bank.

 

The fact that the Bank of Japan started to ease policy after a long pause means that it aims to fight the yen’s strength. The market players will now expect more easing from this central bank. Note, however, that the Bank of Japan’s decision wasn’t unanimous: 4 members votes against such step.

 

USD/JPY corrected up to 121.40 – resistance line, which used to act as support in 2012-2015. The next resistance is at 121.85/122.00 (December 2014 high, March 2015 high), as well as 122.80 and 123.50 (resistance line, going through June, August highs). Support is at 120.00, 118.70 and 117.00.

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Analytics/2016/01-January/28/USDJPYDaily.png

 

Next week there won’t be any market moving publications in Japan, so focus on Chinese statistics: manufacturing PMIs on Monday and services PMI on Wednesday. Better data will be positive for USD/JPY, while worse figures will have negative impact.

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7730

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Forex Analytics

 

EUR/USD: forecast for February 1-7

 

By Elizabeth Belugina

 

EUR/USD traded within the range of the past 2 months. Dovish minutes of the Federal Reserve’s meeting allowed the euro to rise to 1.0950, although improved market sentiment on the recovery in oil prices and the Bank of Japan’s monetary easing made the euro turn down below 1.0900.

 

At the same time, it seems that the effect of Mario Draghi’s bearish comments has worn down. According to the media, the members of the ECB Governing Council don’t agree about potential increase of monetary stimulus in March. So, there are reasons to believe that the downside of the euro will be limited. Support is at 1.0815/00 and 1.0710.

 

On the other hand, the dovish outcome of the Fed’s meeting has already been priced in by the market. We don’t rule out the possibility of a rate hike, and the overall divergence in policy between the ECB and the Fed remained. The euro area’s inflation data improved a bit, although statistics from Germany was poor. We assume that sideways trading will persist in EUR/USD with the focus on its lower border. Strong resistance is located at 1.1000/1.1050 (200-day MA, downtrend resistance line at 2014-2016, 55-week MA).

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Analytics/2016/01-January/28/EURUSDDaily.png

 

The upcoming release of Chinese statistics on Monday and Wednesday can once again worsen the market’s mood and increase demand for the euro. In the euro area’s economic calendar all events are of medium and low importance.

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7731

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Forex Analytics

 

US Dollar: forecast for February 1-7

 

By Kira Iukhtenko

 

Market sentiment towards the US Dollar worsened significantly after the Federal Reserve meeting on January 27. FOMC left interest rates unchanged and softened the overall rhetoric, pointing to increased global and internal risks. As a result, expectations for a Fed’s hike in March slipped to just 15%. How long will the USD selling last? To find the answer we need to monitor the upcoming economic events, as the Fed remains data-dependent.

 

Calendar for the new week is full of potentially market-moving events. Watch the PCE index and consumer spending data on Monday. FOMC voting members Fisher and George will deliver their speeches on Monday and Tuesday, respectively. These two policymakers have traditionally been hawkish – we will see whether they changed the views in the worsened economic conditions.

 

Apart from that, watch a block of PMI indices from Monday to Wednesday. On Friday, the market will focus on the labor market figures. Do not forget to leave your NFP forecasts on FX BAZOOKA website!

 

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https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7734

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Forex Analytics

 

AUD/USD: weekly wave analysis

1 February 2016

 

Daily. The pair keeps forming corrective wave [2], which is an upside pullback to the impulse [1]. When this wave is completed, the decline will resume.

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/%D0%92%D0%BE%D0%BB%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%BE%D0%B9/Petukhov_1February/audusd1.PNG

 

H4. The wave [2] is taking form of the triple zigzag. This week a new downtrend will likely start to develop, so take this into account while trading.

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/%D0%92%D0%BE%D0%BB%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%BE%D0%B9/Petukhov_1February/audusd2.PNG

 

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https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7752

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Forex Analytics

 

USD/JPY: weekly wave analysis

1 February 2016

 

Daily. In line with the forecast we saw the development of the rapid upward impulse (V). Growth will resume in the near term. We recommend considering only long positions.

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/%D0%92%D0%BE%D0%BB%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%BE%D0%B9/Petukhov_1February/usdjpy1.PNG

 

H4. The pair is currently building an upward impulse III. The price will continue going upwards with small stops.

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/%D0%92%D0%BE%D0%BB%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%BE%D0%B9/Petukhov_1February/usdjpy2.PNG

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7751

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Forex Analytics

 

GBP/USD: weekly wave analysis

1 February 2016

 

Daily. The pair is currently forming the final part of the downtrend [C]. Let’s review the layout in detail, to determine the point where the decline will continue.

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/%D0%92%D0%BE%D0%BB%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%BE%D0%B9/Petukhov_1February/gbpusd1.PNG

 

H4. The wave (4) is taking form of a double triple. After a small advance, we’ll see the market rise within new bearish impulse (5). The decline will likely start already this week.

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/%D0%92%D0%BE%D0%BB%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%BE%D0%B9/Petukhov_1February/gbpusd2.PNG

 

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https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7750

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Forex Analytics

 

EUR/USD: weekly wave analysis

1 February 2016

 

Daily. The market keeps moving in the final part of the double three (4), forming an upward zigzag Z. Let’s review the layout at Н4.

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/%D0%92%D0%BE%D0%BB%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%BE%D0%B9/Petukhov_1February/eurusd1.PNG

 

H4. The pair keeps forming corrective wave , which is taking form of the double three. The pair will finish the wave (x) this week, and then we’ll see final downward wave (y), which can be very small. Whenthewave is completed, growth will resume.

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/%D0%92%D0%BE%D0%BB%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%BE%D0%B9/Petukhov_1February/eurusd2.PNG

 

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https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7749

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Forex Analytics

 

Forex trading plan for February 2

 

Chinese data showed that manufacturing slowed last month at its fastest pace in more than 3 years. The news worsened the mood of the market players. In addition, oil prices declined on reports in the media that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has made no decisions on the emergency meeting yet.

 

EUR/USD met support in the 1.0810 area (support line from January lows). Negative risk sentiment can make the single currency test higher levels. Resistance is at 1.0930/50, 1.1000 and 1.1050. We recommend looking for opportunities to sell the euro on the attempts to approach resistance, as traders will expect more easing from the European Central Bank after the Bank of Japan cut the deposit rate on Friday. The ECB President Mario Draghi will speak at 16:00 GMT on Monday. Om Tuesday the euro area will release unemployment figures.

 

GBP/USD keeps fluctuating around 1.4300. The UK manufacturing PMI came above expectations, though we remember that other data released recently were weak. Construction PMI is due at 09:30 GMT. Pound tries to recover leaning slightly to the upside. However, there’s resistance at 1.4335 and 1.4400, below which the picture will remain bearish. Support is at 1.4228, 1.4150 and 1.4080.

 

USD/JPY stalled below the 200-day MA at 121.46. The pair is overbought in the short-term, but 120.00 should provide support and lead to a pullback to the upside. The BOJ’s more loose policy makes buying on the dips out preferred strategy. Resistance is at 121.85, 122.80 and 123.50.

 

AUD/USD spiked to 0.7140 (daily MAs, former support line) on Friday forming a shooting star candle. Worries about China represent negative factor for the Aussie. Further esistance is at 0.7200. Support is at 0.7040, 0.7000 and 0.6935. The Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its decision in the morning (03:30 GMT). The RBA is expected to keep the benchmark rate unchanged, but there’s the risk of dovish comments from the regulator.

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7756

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Forex Analytics

 

AUD/USD: sell target - 0.7030

2 February 2016

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

 

-AUD/USD reached buy target 0.7100

-Next sell target - 0.7030

 

AUD/USD continues to fall after the recent sharp downward reversal from the resistance zone lying between the resistance level 0.7100 (former strong support from December and the previous buy target set in our earlier forecast for this currency pair), the upper daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp minor impulse wave 1 from the start of December. The downward reversal from this resistance zone completed the previous minor correction 2.

 

AUD/USD is likely to fall further in the active minor impulse wave 3 (belonging to the intermediate impulse (3) wave from December) toward the next sell target at the support level 0.7030.

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/DIMA%20CHE/AUDUSD%20-%20Primary%20Analysis%20-%20Feb-02%201117%20AM%20(1%20day).png

 

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https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7763

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Forex Analytics

 

EUR/GBP: buy target - 0.7650

2 February 2016

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

 

-EUR/GBP reversed from support zone

-Next buy target - 0.7650

 

EUR/GBP continues to rise after the recent upward reversal from the support zone lying between the support level 0.7550 (which stopped the earlier minor correction 2 in January, as can be seen from the daily EUR/GBP chart below) and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp minor impulse wave 1. The upward reversal from this support zone continues the active minor impulse wave 3 – which belongs to the intermediate impulse wave (3) from the start of January.

 

EUR/GBP is likely to rise further in the active impulse waves 3 and (3) toward the next buy target at the resistance level 0.7650. Buy stop-loss can be placed below the aforementioned support level 0.7550.

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/DIMA%20CHE/EURGBP%20-%20Primary%20Analysis%20-%20Feb-02%201105%20AM%20(1%20day).png

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7764

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Forex Analytics

 

Forex trading plan for February 3

 

By Kira Iukhtenko

 

At the beginning of the week, risk appetite is low amid weak Chinese data on Monday and falling oil prices. What’s more, US data on Monday was a disappointment as well. Expectations for a Fed’s rate hike keep on falling. On Wednesday, watch the non-manufacturing Caixin PMI in China. In the US, pay attention to the non-manufacturing PMI, ADP NFP and the crude oil inventories figures later in the day.

 

EUR/USD is strengthening for a second day in a row and approached the falling trend line at 1.0950. There is a strong resistance in this area, so beware a pullback. Key support is seen at 1.0810. Euro zone’s economic calendar on Wednesday is rather light, so all eyes will be glued to United States and to the global risk sentiment.

 

GBP/USD remains highly volatile, once again pulling back from the trend resistance line on weaker-than-expected construction PMI figures. Watch the Services PMI on Wednesday (forecast - 55.4). Key intraday support lies at 1.4350. Generally, the strong bullish Monday candle remains unbeaten, but these levels are bad for buying. Close above 1.4450 could confirm a reversal to the upside.

 

USD/JPY has also declined from the last week’s highs of 121.70. In the current risk-off mode, demand for the safe yen is expected to stay high. Band of Japan Governor Kuroda is scheduled to speak tomorrow – markets await more comments on the recent BOJ rate cut.

 

AUD/USD is falling on Tuesday, but the recent rising trend remains in play.Watch the 0.7050/00 support area. As for the economic calendar, Australia is scheduled to releasetrade balance and building approvals data.

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7767

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Forex Analytics

 

GBP/NZD: sell target - 2.1690

3 February 2016

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

 

-GBP/NZD reversed from resistance zone

-Next sell target - 2.1690

 

GBP/NZD recently reversed down sharply from the resistance zone lying between the strong resistance level 2.2200 (which has been reversing the price from last month, as you can see below), the upper daily Bollinger Band and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp downward impulse wave 1 from the middle of November. The latest downward reversal from this resistance zone created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Falling Star.

 

Given the strength of the resistance zone near the resistance level 2.2200 - GBP/NZD is likely to fall further from the current levels toward the next sell target at the support level 2.1690 (which stopped the previous (a)-wave in January).

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/DIMA%20CHE/GBPNZD%20-%20Primary%20Analysis%20-%20Feb-03%201106%20AM%20(1%20day).png

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7775

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Forex Analytics

 

NZD/CAD: buy target - 0.9300

3 February 2016

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

 

-NZD/CAD reversed from support zone

-Next buy target - 0.9300

 

NZD/CAD recently reversed up sharply from the support zone lying between the round support level 0.9000 (former strong resistance from October), the lower daily Bollinger Band and the Fibonacci cluster made out of the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the previous primary ABC correction ② and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous ©-wave from November. The upward reversal from this support zone started the active minor correction 2.

 

NZD/CAD is likely to rise further in the active minor wave 2 toward the next buy target at the resistance level 0.9300 (target price for the completion of the active wave 2).

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/DIMA%20CHE/NZDCAD%20-%20Primary%20Analysis%20-%20Feb-03%201054%20AM%20(1%20day).png

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7774

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Forex Analytics

 

Forex trading plan for February 4

 

Oil remains one of the key topics with the continuing speculation about OPEC’s emergency meeting. Oman’s foreign minister said the meeting will be soon, though the time isn’t set yet. News from China improved (services sector growth picked up to a 6-month high in January), but the general risk sentiment remains negative. US ADP employment report showed that American economy added more jobs than expected (205K vs. the forecast of 193K).

 

EUR/USD jumped up. Eurozone retail sales have rebounded in December. Mario Draghi may try to discourage the bulls, when he speaks at 08:00 GMT on Thursday. Resistance is at 1.1050 (200-day MA). Support line is in the 1.0840 area and can attract buyers.

 

GBP/USD tested 1.4500. The cable was helped by the draft deal between Britain and the European Union and the UK services PMI, which came in line with expectations, at a rather good level. The results of the Bank of England’s meeting and quarterly inflation report are due at 12:00 GMT. No changes in policy of the central bank are expected. Governor Mark Carney will speak at 12:45 GMT. Remember that Carney’s last comments were dovish and for now the picture hasn’t changed enough for the regulator to change its position. This creates bearish risk for the pound. Resistance is at 1.4555 ahead of 1.4655. Support is at 1.4450/40.

 

USD/JPY fell for the third consecutive day: the positive impulse provided by the Bank of Japan is violated by the increased demand for the yen as a safe haven. The pair slid below 120.00, and we don’t recommend any long until the greenback is back above this mark. Support is at 118.15, 117.50 and 117.00. AUD/USD made this week a lower high around 0.7130. A close above 0.7120/50 is needed for Aussie to reverse to the upside. Support is at 0.7000 ahead of 0.6935.

 

https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7776

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

 

The USD/JPY pair is diving towards the cloud

4 February 2016

Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst

 

During yesterday’s trading session, the pair USD/JPY had lost almost three figures. That was caused by dollar’s weakening. By the end of the day, the bears have fallen off the market to the strong support of the 117th figure. As a result, consolidation movement in this area occurred this morning.

 

It is noteworthy that the trading is under a four-hour Ichimoku cloud now, and it is possible to restore the Tenkan-sen (118.90) soon. There is also the lower limit of the Ichimoku cloud follows, which will act as a resistance.

 

Technical levels: Support - 117.00; resistance - 118.90.

 

Trading recommendations:

 

1. Sell — 118.90; SL — 119.10; TP1 — 117.50; TP2 — 117.10.

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Analytics/2016/02-February/04/usdjpyh4-TN.png

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7787

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

 

USD/CHF: sell target - 0.9900

4 February 2016

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

 

-USD/CHF reversed from strong resistance zone

-Next sell target - 0.9900

 

USD/CHF has been falling strongly in the last few trading sessions – following the earlier downward reversal from the resistance zone surrounding the major, long-term resistance level 1.0200 (which previously reversed the price sharply at the start of 2015 and also in November of 2015, as you can see from the weekly USD/CHF chart below). If the price closes this week near the current levels – it will form the 3rd consecutive weekly reversal pattern Bearish Engulfing.

 

USD/CHF is currently approaching the parity. If the pair breaks below the parity - USD/CHF will then, most likely, fall to the next sell target at the support level 0.9900.

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/DIMA%20CHE/USDCHF%20-%20Primary%20Analysis%20-%20Feb-04%201104%20AM%20(1%20week).png

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7786

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Forex Analytics

 

Forex trading plan for February 5

 

By Kira Iukhtenko

 

Demand for the US Dollar remained low on Thursday, but there is high probability that the recent wave of selling will be over soon. On Friday markets will focus on a block of the US labor market figures. According to the official forecast, the US economy added 189K new jobs in January (below 292K in December, but still enough for a Fed’s rate hike in March). You should also pay attention to the average hourly earnings (forecast – upbeat).

 

EUR/USD surged above 1.1200, but you may see from the RSI indicator that the pair is overbought. Selling at current levels seems to be an attractive idea. Note that the pair broke above the 55-week MA, but this level acted as a resistance for a couple of times. Will the bulls be strong enough to close the weekly candle higher? Support is seen at 1.1050/00. Watch the German factory orders on Friday.

 

GBP/USD remains highly volatile. On Thursday, the market was disappointed by the BOE meeting results – this time 9 out of 9 BOE members voted to leave rates unchanged. Chances for a BOE rate hike in 2016 remain very low. Watch the 1.4530 support (38.2% Fibonacci from the recent decline).

 

AUD/USD extends the upside. On Wednesday we’ve seen a strong bullish candle on the daily chart. However, any decline in risk appetite will hurt your ling positions badly – the buying positions are overstretched. Tomorrow watch the RBA monetary policy statement and the Australian retail sales figures.

 

USD/JPY keeps on declining. The pair is forming a bullish engulfing on a weekly chart. Key support is seen at 116 yen – this is a psychological level where the BOJ is expected to intervene.

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7788

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Forex Analytics

 

US Dollar: forecast for February 8-14

 

By Kira Iukhtenko

 

The US dollar had been weakening against all the major currencies last week on the back of the weak data and dovish comments of the Fed’s member Dudley. According to the futures market, the chance for a Fed’s rate hike in March fell to 13%.

 

However, labor market figures rendered support to the US currency on Friday. NFP came below the forecast, while unemployment fell to 4.9%. What’s more, average hourly earnings rose by 0.5%.

 

Next week Chinese markets will be closed, so lack of stress from this area could support the US dollar. The Fed’s chief Janet Yellen will present the semiannual monetary policy report in Congress on Wednesday and Thursday. On Friday, watch the US retail sales figures. What’s more, some more US “blue chips” will publish their quarterly reports next week.

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Analytics/2016/02-February/04/USD%20av%20hourly%20earnings.png

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7799

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

 

GBP/USD: forecast for February 8-14

 

By Kira Iukhtenko

 

The cable rose by 450 pips at the beginning of the week amid the global USD selloff. However, the pound’s rally was capped by the BOE meeting on Thursday: the bank left rates unchanged and revised the economic forecasts to the downside. The market is no longer expecting a rate hike in 2016.

 

From the technical viewpoint, the cable is now testing the trend line support at 1.4500. This is also 38.2% Fibonacci from the December-January decline. Pay attention to the “doji” candle formed on Friday – it signals that the market has formed a local top at 1.4665.

 

UK economic calendar is going to be rather light next week. December trade balance will be published on Tuesday and On Wednesday, watch the manufacturing production data.

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7798

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

 

EUR/USD: forecast for February 8-14

 

The euro took advantage of the broad weakness in the US dollar. EUR/USD made a breakthrough to the upside and crushed several important resistance levels on the way. One of the main reasons of such rapid increase in the euro is the covering of massive short positions. Economic data from the euro area remain weak. On Friday, though, US labor market data made traders buy American currency back.

 

Resistance is at 1.1270 (76.8% Fibo of the October-November decline), 1.1300 (23.6% Fibo of the 2014-2015 decline) and 1.1330. A break here can open the way to 1.1440/50. Support switched up to 1.1100, 1.1050 and 1.1000.

 

Let’s look at the euro’s rate in general, not only against the US dollar. The single currency’s effective exchange rate against a trade-weighted basket of 38 other currencies is at maximum since the start of 2015 or, in other words, before Mario Draghi formally announced the European Central Bank’s quantitative-easing program.

 

High euro is very unwelcome for the European economy and is an obstacle for the ECB to reach 2% inflation target. Yet, 2 speeches of the ECB president this week didn’t discourage the bulls. Draghi spoke of weaker inflation and increased risks hinting at the central bank’s policy easing in March. However, it seems that vague promises of March are not enough to weaken the euro.

 

Decline below 1.1040 will return strength to the bears, but 1.0900 should limit the euro on the downside.

 

Next week the most important piece of data will be released on Friday: euro area’s and German Q4 GDP. The region’s finance ministers will meet on Thursday and Friday. The ECB officials may try verbal interventions to limit the euro on the upside.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eaAL5_SQnLw

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7804

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

 

USD/JPY: forecast for February 8-14

 

USD/JPY erased gains made after the Bank of Japan’s meeting at the end of January and approached 116.00. Stronger yen was negative for Japanese stocks, which lost about 6% during a week. On Friday US dollar got support of the American labor market data: the unemployment rate declined, while average earnings growth accelerated. Yet, we think that it will now be harder for the pair to regain the upside: the market fears that the BOJ actions to encourage inflation and weaken the yen won’t work.

 

Note Chinese markets will be closed next week because of the lunar New Year holidays. The market’s risk sentiment can improve, as the People’s Bank of China will probably try to keep the yuan stable. Also watch news out of the US, primarily speeches of the Fed’s Chair Janet Yellen on Wednesday and Thursday.

 

Support is at 116.00 (psychological level), 115.50 (bottom of 2015 trading range), 114.80 (100-week MA) and 114.00 (bottom of the weekly Cloud). Resistance is at 118.80 and 120.00. Japanese economic calendar once again is light with only current account on Monday and 30-y bond auction on Tuesday.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3sJ8eAU7rp4

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7803

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

 

USD/JPY: buy target - 118.00

8 February 2016

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

 

-USD/JPY reversed from pivotal support level 116.50

-Next buy target - 118.00

 

USD/JPY recently reversed up from the pivotal support level 116.50 (which reversed previous waves (A) and 1 in October and January, as you can see from the daily USD/JPY chart below). When this support level reversed the price in the middle of January the pair formed the strong double Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern - Bullish Engulfing, the first candle of which is the daily Hammer.

 

The last time the price reversed up from the support level 116.50 the pair formed the daily Japanese candlestick reversal pattern Long-legged Doji. Given the strength of the support level 116.50 - USD/JPY is likely to rise to the next buy target at the resistance level 118.00.

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/DIMA%20CHE/USDJPY%20-%20Primary%20Analysis%20-%20Feb-08%201058%20AM%20(1%20day).png

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7820