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USD/JPY: forecast for December 21-27

 

The dynamics of USD/JPY in the past week was determined by the actions of the central banks. Firstly the US Federal Reserve raised the interest rate making the pair go up. Then the Bank of Japan announced some changes to its monetary stimulus measures. However, the market regarded the step taken by the central bank as too small. In short, the BOJ will expand the types of assets it purchases, but the total volume of the program will remain the same. Dollar bulls got disappointed, and USD/JPY was once again rejected down from 123.50. Many failures at this resistance level make it a hard obstacle on the upside.

 

At the same time, the action taken by the Bank of Japan will remind traders that it is actually conducting a massive monetary easing. Together with higher rates in America, this is a huge supporting factor for USD/JPY. There will likely be further technical decline in USD after the failure on the upside, but support line from 2013 is in the 119.20/00 area. Resistance is at 122.00, 123.50 and 124.00.

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Analytics/2015/December/20/%D0%B4%D0%BE%D0%BB%D0%BB%D0%B0%D1%80%D0%B8%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%B0.png

 

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Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: forecast for December 21-27

 

EUR/USD failed to settle above 1.1000 and declined to 1.0800. The bears have to break below this level to provoke decline to 1.0730 and 1.0650. Resistance is at 1.0980, 1.1055 and 1.1100. These obstacles look strong.

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Analytics/2015/December/20/%D0%B5%D0%B2%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%B4%D0%BE%D0%BB%D0%BB%D0%B0%D1%80.png

 

Economic data from the euro area in the past week were mixed: PMIs came generally in line with forecasts, but German IFO business climate index disappointed raising concerns about the region’s leading economy.

 

This week we won’t see a lot of news from Europe. Spanish parliamentary elections can create volatility on Monday: the markets will be watching the event as the European Union urging Spain to make new budget cuts in 2016. Then there will be some minor data from Germany on Monday and Tuesday, while the second half of the week will be devoted to Christmas holidays.

 

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Credit Suisse: trade positions and signals

22 December 2015

Open positions:

 

EUR/USD: Hold SHORT from 1.0905, TAKE PROFIT 1.0640, STOP LOSS 1.0955 (Entered on December 21).

 

EUR/CHF: Hold SHORT from 132.40, TAKE PROFIT 129.77, STOP LOSS 133.25 (Entered on December 21).

 

USD/CHF: Hold LONG from 0.9915, TAKE PROFIT 1.0030 (revised), STOP LOSS 0.9880 (Entered on December 18).

 

EUR/GBP: Hold LONG from 0.7250, TAKE PROFIT 0.7370, STOP LOSS 0.7198 (Entered on December 15).

 

NZD/USD: Hold LONG from 0.6700, TAKE PROFIT 0.6865, STOP LOSS 0.6680 (Entered on December 13).

 

AUD/USD: Hold SHORT from 0.7280, TAKE PROFIT 0.6940, STOP LOSS 0.7385 (Entered on December 7).

 

Trade signals:

 

USD/JPY: SELL at 122.00, TAKE PROFIT 120.45, STOP LOSS 122.67 (Entered on December 21).

 

USD/CAD: BUY at 1.3865, TAKE PROFIT 1.4320, STOP LOSS 1.3743 (Entered on December 21).

 

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AUD/CAD: buy target - 1.0200

22 December 2015

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

 

  • AUD/CAD broke multiple resistance levels
  • Next buy target - 1.0200

AUD/CADhas been rising sharply in the last few trading sessions inside the 5th minor impulse wave 5 of the ©-wave of the primary ABC correction ② from September. The active ©-wave earlier broke the daily up channel from September, the resistance level 0.9850 (previous buy target set for this currency pair) and more recently – the price broke through the parity.

 

The price today broke the next strong resistance level 1.0080 (which reversed the pair sharply in January, as you can see below). If the price closes today above 1.0080 - AUD/CAD can then rise to the next buy target 1.0200.

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/DIMA%20CHE/AUDCAD%20-%20Primary%20Analysis%20-%20Dec-22%201123%20AM%20(1%20day).png

 

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GBP/AUD: sell target - 2.0400

22 December 2015

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

 

  • GBP/AUD falling inside impulse waves 3 and ©
  • Next sell target - 2.0400

GBP/AUD has been falling strongly in the last few trading sessions inside the 3rd minor impulse wave 3 which started recently – when the pair reversed down from the resistance zone lying between the resistance level 2.1200 (breakout level of the previous up channel from May), upper daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci Correction of the previous downward price move from August.

 

GBP/AUD is likely to fall further in the active impulse waves 3 and © (which belong to the primary ABC wave ②) toward the next sell target at the support level 2.0400 (which stopped the previous minor impulse wave 1).

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/DIMA%20CHE/GBPAUD%20-%20Primary%20Analysis%20-%20Dec-22%201117%20AM%20(1%20day).png

 

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NZD/USD: buy target - 0.6900

23 December 2015

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

 

  • NZD/USD broke resistance level 0.6800
  • Next buy target - 0.6900

NZD/USD has been rising in the last few trading sessions inside the 3rd minor impulse wave 3 - which belongs to the intermediate ©-wave from the middle of November. The active impulse wave 3 earlier reversed up sharply with the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Morning Star from the support zone lying between the support level 0.6600 and the 50% Fibonacci Correction of the previous upward price impulse from November.

 

Having recently broken above the resistance level 0.6800 - NZD/USD is likely to rise further toward the next buy target at the next strong resistance level 0.6900 (which stopped the previous (A)-wave in October).

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/DIMA%20CHE/NZDUSD%20-%20Primary%20Analysis%20-%20Dec-23%201048%20AM%20(1%20day).png

 

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GBP/NZD: sell target - 2.1500.

23 December 2015

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

 

  • GBP/NZD reached sell target 2.2000
  • Next sell target - 2.1500.

GBP/NZD recently broke sharply below the support level 2.2000, which was set in our earlier forecast as the sell target for this currency pair. The breakout of the support level 2.2000 follows the earlier breakout of the 50% Fibonacci Correction of the previous sharp upward impulse wave from April. These two consecutive support breakouts are likely to accelerate the active impulse waves 3 and ©- which belong to the extended primary ABC correction ② from August.

 

GBP/NZD is expected to fall further in the active waves 3 and © toward the next sell target at the support level 2.1500 (target price calculated for the termination of the active impulse wave 3).

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/DIMA%20CHE/GBPNZD%20-%20Primary%20Analysis%20-%20Dec-23%201036%20AM%20(1%20day).png

 

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GBP/CHF: buy target - 1.4900

28 December 2015

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

 

  • GBP/CHF reversed from powerful support level 1.4600
  • Next buy target - 1.4900

GBP/CHF continues to rise after the recent upward reversal from the powerful support level 1.4600 (which earlier reversed waves (A) and ② in August and October respectively). The support zone near the support level 1.4600 was strengthened by the lower daily Bollinger Band and by the 50% Fibonacci Correction of the previous upward price move from May. The latest upward reversal from 1.4600 stopped the C-wave of the previous ABC correction (2).

 

GBP/CHF is likely to rise further in the next intermediate impulse wave (3) toward the next buy target at the resistance level 1.4900.

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/DIMA%20CHE/GBPCHF%20-%20Primary%20Analysis%20-%20Dec-28%201038%20AM%20(1%20day).png

 

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EUR/GBP: buy target - 0.7400

29 December 2015

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

 

  • EUR/GBP rises inside impulse wave (3)
  • Next buy target - 0.7400

EUR/GBP continues to rise inside the 3rd intermediate impulse wave (3) - which started earlier this month, when the pair reversed up from the support zone lying between the support level 0.7300 and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp minor upward impulse wave 5 from the start of this month. The active impulse wave (3) belongs to the sharp primary impulse wave ③ from the middle of November.

 

EUR/GBP is likely to rise further to the next buy target at the resistance level 0.7400, which stopped the previous impulse wave (1) earlier this month.

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/DIMA%20CHE/EURGBP%20-%20Primary%20Analysis%20-%20Dec-29%201109%20AM%20(1%20day).png

 

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EUR/CAD: buy target - 1.5400

29 December 2015

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

 

  • EUR/CAD reversed from support zone
  • Next buy target - 1.5400

EUR/CAD continues to rise inside the minor impulse wave (iii) – which started earlier this month – when the pair reversed up from the support zone lying between the major round support level 1.5000 and the 38.2% Fibonacci Correction of the previous sharp upward impulse from the start of this month. The upward reversal from this support zone created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Piercing Line – completing the previous correction (ii).

 

EUR/CAD is likely to rise further toward the next buy target at the resistance level 1.5400 (which reversed the price with the daily Evening Star in August).

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/DIMA%20CHE/EURCAD%20-%20Primary%20Analysis%20-%20Dec-29%201055%20AM%20(1%20day).png

 

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CAD/JPY: sell target - 86.30

30 December 2015

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

 

  • CAD/JPY reversed from resistance zone
  • Next sell target - 86.30

CAD/JPY today reversed down from the resistance zone lying between the resistance level 87.30(which also previously reversed the earlier minor correction 4, former strong support from August, acting as resistance now after it was broken) and the 38.2% Fibonacci Correction of the previous sharp downward impulse wave (v) from December. The downward reversal from this resistance zone continues the active minor impulse wave 5 – which belongs to the intermediate impulse (3) from October.

 

CAD/JPY is likely to fall further toward the next sell target at the support level 86.30 (which stopped the minor impulse wave 3 earlier this month).

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/DIMA%20CHE/CADJPY%20-%20Primary%20Analysis%20-%20Dec-30%200953%20AM%20(1%20day).png

 

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GBP/USD: sell target - 1.4750

30 December 2015

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

 

  • GBP/USD falling inside impulse waves (iii), 3 and (3)
  • Next sell target - 1.4750

GBP/USD has been falling sharply in the last few trading sessions- following the earlier breakout of the round support level 1.5000, which was set as the sell target in our previous forecast for this currency pair. The breakout of the support level 1.5000 accelerated the active impulse waves 3 and (3). The price earlier reversed down from the lower channel line of the wide daily down channel from June - which further accelerated the downward movement of this currency pair.

 

GBP/USD is likely to fall further in the active impulse waves (iii), 3 and (3) toward the next sell target at the support level 1.4750 (target price for the termination of wave 3).

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/DIMA%20CHE/GBPUSD%20-%20Primary%20Analysis%20-%20Dec-30%201002%20AM%20(1%20day).png

 

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GBP/JPY: sell target - 172.00

6 January 2016

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

 

  • GBP/JPY broke pivotal support level 176.00
  • Next sell target - 172.00

GBP/JPY continues to fall strongly – following the earlier breakout of the pivotal long-term support level 176.00, which has been reversing the price from the start of 2015, as you can see from the daily GBP/JPY chart below. The breakout of this support level follows the earlier breakout of the support level 178.00, which was set as the sell target in our previous forecast for this currency pair.

 

GBP/JPY is likely to fall further in the accelerated impulse waves 3 and (v) (which belong to the sharp intermediate impulse wave © from November of 2015) toward the next sell target at the support level 172.00 (forecast price for the termination of the active impulse wave 3).

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/DIMA%20CHE/GBPJPY%20-%20Primary%20Analysis%20-%20Jan-06%201027%20AM%20(1%20day).png

 

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USD/CAD: buy targets - 1.4200 and 1.4400

6 January 2016

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

 

  • USD/CAD reached buy target 1.4000
  • Next buy targets - 1.4200 and 1.4400

USD/CAD continues to rise after the earlier breakout of the round resistance level 1.4000 – which was set as the buy target in our previous forecast for this currency pair. The breakout of the resistance level 1.4000 is likely to accelerate the active minor impulse wave (iii) – which started earlier- when the pair reversed up from the support zone lying between the support level 1.3800 and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp upward impulse from the start of December.

 

USD/CAD is likely to rise further in the active impulse waves (iii), 3 and (3) toward the next buy target at the resistance level 1.4200 – the breakout of which can lead to further gains toward 1.4400.

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/DIMA%20CHE/USDCAD%20-%20Primary%20Analysis%20-%20Jan-06%201030%20AM%20(1%20day).png

 

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USD/JPY: sell targets - 117.00 and 116.20

7 January 2016

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

 

  • USD/JPY broke pivotal support level 118.60
  • Next sell targets - 117.00 and 116.20

USD/JPY today broke below the pivotal support level 118.60 (which has been reversing the price from the end of August, as you can see below). This support level also reversed the pair multiple times in March and April of last year. The breakout of the support level 118.60 accelerated the active ©-wave of the minor ABC correction 2 from the middle of November.

 

USD/JPY is likely to fall further in the active waves © and 2 toward the next sell target at the support level 117.00 – the breakout of which can lead to further losses toward the next major support level 116.20 (which reversed the previous intermediate ABC correction (4) in August).

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/DIMA%20CHE/USDJPY%20-%20Primary%20Analysis%20-%20Jan-07%201100%20AM%20(1%20day).png

 

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GBP/USD: sell target - 1.4500

7 January 2016

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

 

  • GBP/USD reached sell target 1.4750
  • Next sell target - 1.4500

GBP/USD recently fell sharply – breaking through the support level 1.4750, which was set as the sell target in our previous forecast for this currency pair. The breakout of this support level accelerated the active minor impulse waves (iii) and 5, which belong to the sharp intermediate downward impulse wave (3) from August.

 

The price is currently trading close to the pivotal, multi-month support level 1.4570 (which stopped the previous primary impulse wave ① in April, as can be seen below).If the price breaks below 1.4570, GBP/USD can then fall further to the next sell target at the support level 1.4500 (target price for the completion of the active impulse wave (3)).

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/DIMA%20CHE/GBPUSD%20-%20Primary%20Analysis%20-%20Jan-07%201103%20AM%20(1%20day).png

 

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GBP/CAD: buy target - 2.0800

8 January 2016

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

 

  • GBP/CAD reversed from support zone
  • Next buy target - 2.0800

GBP/CAD continues to rise inside the 3rd minor impulse wave 3 – which started recently, when the pair reversed up from the support zone lying between the strong support level 2.0350 (former upper boundary of the sideways price range from October, acting as support now after it was broken), the lower daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci Correction of the previous sharp upward impulse (v) from the start of December.

 

GBP/CAD is likely to rise further in the active impulse wave 3 toward the next buy target at the next resistance level 2.0800 (which stopped the (b)-wave of the previous ABC correction 2 from December).

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/DIMA%20CHE/GBPCAD%20-%20Primary%20Analysis%20-%20Jan-08%201028%20AM%20(1%20day).png

 

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EUR/GBP: sell target - 0.7400

8 January 2016

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

 

  • EUR/GBP reversed from long-term resistance level 0.7470
  • Next sell target - 0.7400

EUR/GBP today reversed down from the major, long-term resistance level 0.7470 (which earlier reversed the previous sharp waves 4 and ① in May and October of 2015, as you can see from the daily EUR/GBP chart below). The resistance zone near the resistance level0.7470 was strengthened by the upper daily Bollinger Band.

 

Given the strength of the resistance level 0.7470 and the clear bearish divergence that can be seen on the daily Stochastic indicator - EUR/GBP can be expected to fall further to the next sell target at the support level 0.7400 (previous buy target recently reached by this currency pair).

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/DIMA%20CHE/EURGBP%20-%20Primary%20Analysis%20-%20Jan-08%201059%20AM%20(1%20day).png

 

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EUR/CAD: sell target - 1.5200

11 January 2016

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

 

  • EUR/CAD reached buy target 1.5400
  • Next sell target - 1.5200

EUR/CAD today reversed down from the resistance zone lying between the resistance levels 1.5400 (previous buy target set in our earlier forecast for this currency pair) and 1.5500 (which reversed the previous sharp intermediate (A)-wave in August, as can be seen from the daily EUR/CAD chart below).

 

Given the strength of the aforementioned resistance zone and the overbought reading on the daily Stochastic indicator - EUR/CAD can be expected to correct down further to the next sell target at the support level 1.5200 (standing close to the 50% Fibonacci Correction of the previous sharp upward price impulse from the start of this month)

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/DIMA%20CHE/EURCAD%20%20-%20Primary%20Analysis%20-%20Jan-11%201041%20AM%20(1%20day).png

 

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CAD/CHF: buy targets - 0.7100 and 0.7150

11 January 2016

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

 

  • CAD/CHF reversed from round support level 0.7000
  • Next buy targets - 0.7100 and 0.7150

CAD/CHF continues to rise – following the earlier sharp upward reversal from the major round support level 0.7000 (which also previously reversed the price at the end of August with the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Morning Star, as you can see on the daily CAD/CHF chart below). The support zone near the support level 0.7000 was strengthened by the lower daily Bollinger Band.

 

CAD/CHF is likely to rise further from the current levels toward the next buy targets 0.7100 and 0.7150 (38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci Correction levels of the previous sharp downward impulse from the start of January).

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/DIMA%20CHE/CADCHF%20%20-%20Primary%20Analysis%20-%20Jan-11%201038%20AM%20(1%20day).png

 

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Forex trading plan for January 12

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RBvD7DLBfNo

 

Last week: Yuan’s devaluation, Chinese stocks decline, oil price falling by more than 11%, good NFP release in the US (+292K), but weak average hourly earnings.

 

Risk sentiment: Mildly negative. European shares made small gains, though Asian indexes fell by 2-5%. The market make take a breath after the losses of the previous week, though it’s too early at this point to say that equities have reached bottom.

 

USD: US labor market statistics didn’t provide the greenback with strong bullish impulse. Traders will look forward to comments of the Fed members on China and US equity markets. The Fed’s Vice Chairman Stanley Fisher will speak at 10:30 GMT.

 

EUR/USD: The pair met resistance at 1.0970, though the market’s risk aversion doesn’t let the euro to slide much. We lean towards cautious selling. After 1.0870 support is at1.0830, 1.0800 and 1.0685.

 

GBP/USD: The oversold pound has started correcting to the upside, though the general downtrend is still in place. The UK will release manufacturing production figures at 09:30 GMT (forecast is positive, though annual reading is expected to decline). The Bank of England’s Governor Mark Carney will speak at 14:15 GMT. Resistance is at 1.4640 and 1.4700 – the market will likely remain bearish below this point.

 

USD/JPY: Last week the pair broke below important support levels and now looks weak. US dollar will likely return to minimums. Resistance is at 118.30 and 118.70, while support is at 116.00. Pay attention to Japanese current account data and the Bank of Japan’s Kuroda speech at 10:30 GMT.

 

AUD/USD: Resistance is at 0.7115 (former support line). Aussie is correcting to the upside, though we think that advance won’t be long, so we’ll see this resistance as a point to enter shorts. Support is at 0.6930/00.

 

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USD/JPY consolidating

12 January 2016

Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst

Yesterday's trading on the USD/JPY currency pair began with a gapdown of nearly 30 pips below the Friday's close level. At the Asian session, the pair tumbled by about another 50 pips, following the trend, and formed yet another low within the past 5 months in the 116.66 area. Nevertheless, the bulls reacted immediately – the market returned to the 118th figure in a couple of hours and had been consolidating until the end of the day. It should be noted that the bulls were stalled by the Tenkan and Kijun lines that had formed a powerful resistance at this level.

 

Today's trading began with the rate's decline as well and, so far, the prices are remaining in the negative zone. The dead cross was canceled, but the cloud is still bearish. A long-term consolidation is possible, with testing of the Ichimoku cloud lower border levels.

 

Technical levels: support – 117.20; resistance – 118.60.

 

Trade recommendations:

 

1. Sell — 118.60; SL — 118.80; TP1 — 117.60; TP2 — 117.20.

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Analytics/2016/01-January/12/usdjpyh4-TN.png

 

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GBP/USD: bearish pressure persists

12 January 2016

By Kira Iukhtenko

 

Despite the recent recovery of GBP/USD, the majority of analysts maintain a bearish view for the pair. The current descending channel remains active. For instance, Credit Suisse holds a SHORT position since January 11 from 1.4595, targeting 1.4405 and with a stop loss at 1.4650. Analysts at Morgan Stanley recommend selling GBP/USD on a sustainable break below the 1.4560 mark, targeting 1.3500 in the medium term. Stop loss is recommended to be set at 1.3500.

 

From the fundamental viewpoint, expectations for a BOE rate hike in the coming months are now pretty low amid the weak UK economic figures. Manufacturing production data on Tuesday disappointed to the downside. Meanwhile, the Fed is widely expected to hike in March. This means that policy divergence between the BOE and the Fed is widening. This is a bearish factor for GBP/USD.

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Analytics/2016/1101/GBPUSDWeekly.png

Chart. Weekly GBP/USD

 

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Societe Generale: trading USD/CHF

12 January 2016

Analysts at Societe Generale point out that in October USD/CHF broke to the upside the triangle, within which it was trading since the beginning of 2015. Then the greenback pulled back to the upper border of the pattern in the 0.9750 and once again went higher.

 

As a result, the specialists expect the pair to rise to the upper border of the upward channel in the 1.0420/1.0660 zone. The short-term target is at 1.0200 – this level is provided by the inverse Head & Shoulders pattern market on the chart.

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Analytics/2016/1101/USDCHFH4%20en.png

 

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CAD/JPY: sell target - 82.00

12 January 2016

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

  • CAD/JPY broke multiple support levels
  • Next sell target - 82.00

CAD/JPY has been falling sharply in the last few trading sessions – breaking through multiple consecutive support levels - 86.30 (previous sell target set for this currency pair), 85.00, 84.00 and the support trendline of the wide weekly down channel from last year, as you can see below. The breakout of these support levels accelerated the active minor impulse waves (iii) and 5.

CAD/JPY is likely to fall further in the active impulse waves (iii), 5, (3) and ③ toward the next sell target at the support level 82.00 (target price for the termination of the impulse wave (iii)).

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/DIMA%20CHE/CADJPY%20-%20Primary%20Analysis%20-%20Jan-12%201109%20AM%20(1%20day).png

 

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