Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

 

Danske Bank: trade signals for Sept 2

 

Open positions:*

 

USD/JPY: Hold SHORT at 121.15, TAKE PROFIT 118.26, STOP LOSS 121.30

 

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.9580, TAKE PROFIT 0.9799, STOP LOSS 0.9495

 

AUD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.7215, TAKE PROFIT 0.6771, STOP LOSS 0.7164

 

EUR/JPY: Hold SHORT at 138.05, TAKE PROFIT 133.31, STOP LOSS 136.65

 

EUR/GBP: Hold LONG at 0.7300, TAKE PROFIT 0.7483, STOP LOSS 0.7215

 

EUR/CHF: Hold SHORT at 1.0815, TAKE PROFIT 1.0638, STOP LOSS 1.0895

 

Trade ideas:

 

NZD/USD: SELL at 0.6405, TAKE PROFIT 0.6092, STOP LOSS 0.6519

 

EUR/USD: Possibly SELL

 

GBP/USD: Possibly SELL

 

USD/CAD: Possibly BUY

 

EUR/CAD: Possibly BUY

 

GBP/JPY: Possibly SELL

 

_____________________________________________________________________

 

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6293

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

 

Trading plan for September 3

 

Kira Iukhtenko

 

US Dollar index consolidates slightly below the 96 points mark on Wednesday. Weak ADP NFP was ignored by the market. It seems that the expectations for the strong official figures on Friday will be supporting the greenback until the end of the week. As for Thursday, watch the US trade balance and unemployment claims.

 

EUR/USD continues its slow decline, approaching the 1.1200 figure. The ECB meeting on Thursday is creating bearish expectations: Mario Draghi could on a QE program extension. We stay bearish below 1.1320 with a target of 1.1150.

 

GBP/USD trades at 3-month lows after having slipped below 1.5300. The next target is seen at 1.5170. Watch the UK Services PMI on Thursday – a downbeat surprise could trigger a massive selloff.

 

USD/JPY is trying to offset the Tuesday losses, but remains unstable. China markets will be closed on Thursday and on Friday – the pair could get some support out of there. Next resistance lies at 120.40, support – at 118.50.

 

AUD/USD consolidates around the trend support. The pair failed to fix below 0.7000 for now. However, data on Thursday could create a new wave of selling: watch the Australia retail sales and trade balance. Resistance is seen at 0.7070.

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6303

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

 

Forex trading plan for September 4

 

By Elizabeth Belugina

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qX5nm1fJ_6g

 

On Friday, traders will be focused on the release of the US nonfarm payrolls data (NFP) at 12:30 GMT as it’s the key publication ahead of the Federal Reserve’s September 17 meeting. This publication will determine dollar’s dynamics in all major pairs. According to the forecast, American economy added 217K jobs in August. As there have been many concerns about China so far, a reading above 200K is needed to keep the greenback from declining. A reading above 220K will make the greenback strengthen – the bigger the figure is, the higher USD will get. A reading between 200K and 220K may cause some volatility, but won’t clarity the Fed’s position. Ahead of the release trading should be quiet and in narrow ranges as many players will avoid new positions.

 

EUR/USD fell on Thursday because of the dovish comments of the European Central Bank. The ECB lowered inflation and growth forecasts and increased issue share limit: the central bank may now hold 33% of a bond issue vs. 25% earlier. The pair met support of the 100-day MA in the 1.1100 area.

 

GBP/USD continues declining hitting the next target at 1.5245 (50% of the April-June advance). Further support is at 1.5200 and 1.5170/50. Resistance is at 1.5330, 1.5360 and 1.5400.

 

USD/JPY is facing resistance of the 50% Fibo of the August decline and 200-day MA (120.70/77). It seems like the pair’s under bearish pressure below this area. Further resistance is in the 121.70 zone. Support is at 119.60 and 119.30.

 

AUD/USD is trying to hold above the psychological level of 0.7000. After weak GDP came weak retail sales. The pair is oversold and there is bullish divergence on H4. Still, no big moves are expected until the NFP release. Resistance is at 0.7060, 0.7100 and 0.7128. Support is at 0.6950 and 0.6900.

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6314

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

 

EUR/USD: forecast for September 7-13

 

By Elizaveta Belugina

 

During the past week, EUR/USD didn’t renew high. On the contrary, most time the bias was negative because of the expectations of the dovish European Central Bank. The ECB’s didn’t disappoint the bears. The regulator left monetary policy unchanged, but warned about the negative risks coming from emerging markets and lowered the euro area’s growth and inflation forecasts. President Mario Draghi said that currency union might slip into deflation in the coming months.

 

It now looks very likely that the ECB’s current quantitative easing program (QE) will last longer than September 2016. The central bank made some technical adjustments to QE, which will allow it to be more flexible and buy as much bonds as necessary. Overall, we can say that the ECB is dovish, but not aggressively so.

 

The euro area’s economic calendar for the next week is not very full. There will be industrial production figures from Germany and France, the regions’ revised GDP and the informal meeting of the European finance ministers. There may be some headlines ahead of the Greek election due on September 20 as for now no political party gets the majority in parliament that creates political risks.

 

Still, it may be a relatively quiet week, which precedes the Federal Reserve’s meeting and elections in Greece. If we look at the American side of the things, we may see that mixed labor market data didn’t bring any clarity about what to expect from the Fed this month. So, no clear trends should come from here.

 

Note, however, that next week China can once again draw the market’s attention: the nation will release trade balance on Tuesday and inflation on Thursday. Don’t forget that lower-than-expected figures may spike demand for the euro as a safe haven.

 

Technical picture. Support is at 1.0900. Resistance is at 1.1280, 1.1436 (June 18 high) and 1.1467 (May 15 high). The euro is vulnerable for more declines against Japanese yen.

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Analytics/2015/September/03/EURUSDDaily.png

 

Chart. Daily EUR/USD

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6325

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

 

GBP/USD: forecast for September 7-13

 

KIra Iukhtenko

 

British pound extended the decline on the past week, hitting the lowest levels since June. The latest news from the United Kingdom disappoint. Services sector PMI fell to a 2-year low, confirming the UK companies are trouble by the global crisis. Expectations for the BOE rate hike in 2015 declined.

 

On the new week, we’ll be watching the June manufacturing production figures. Bank of England is scheduled to meet on Thursday. No rate hike is expected. What’s more, we could hear some dovish comments this time.

 

As for the technical viewpoint, the cable is trying to fix below 50% Fibonacci from the April-June uptrend and broke below the 1.5200 round figure. Strong resistance is seen at 1.5330, while the 1.5170 mark still remains a hurdle. Break below would open the way to 1.5000.

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Analytics/2015/September/04/GBPUSDWeekly.png

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6321

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

 

USD/JPY: forecast for September 7-13

 

By Elizabeth Belugina

 

After topping in the 121.70 area USD/JPY made another top in the 120.70 region. Demand for the yen as a safe haven limited the pair on the upside provoked a selloff to the 119.00 area.

 

As for the drivers from America, we should note that US nonfarm payrolls data weren’t very high coming below 200K. This might be the negative seasonal factors in play. Still, American unemployment rate declined and average earnings rose. Such mixed release means that the debate on whether US economy is in a good enough shape for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in September will surely continue in the coming week.

 

Next week Japan will release current account and final GDP on Tuesday and some manufacturing data on Thursday and Friday. Japanese economic growth is unlikely to be revised to the upside. All in all, the speculation about the Fed’s rate hike timing and the markets risk sentiment will be the key themes for the market. The situation of risk aversion will likely continue as money is flowing out of China. Pay attention to the release of Chinese trade balance on Tuesday and inflation on Thursday.

 

Technical picture. USD/JPY has strong resistance levels at 120.70, 121.70 and 122.00 – levels, which will be hard for the bulls to get through. Support is in the 118.30/00. Below that there should be buying interest from Japanese companies. Next support is at 116.00.

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Analytics/2015/September/03/USDJPYDaily.png

 

Chart. Daily USD/JPY

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6326

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

 

US Dollar: forecast for September 7-13

 

Kira Iukhtenko

 

US labor market data came out mixed on Friday. Non-farm payrolls rose by 173K in August (below the forecast). However, jobless rate declined to the lowest in 7 years and the average hourly earnings increased. Overall, the employment data didn’t hurt the positive image of the US economic dynamics.

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Analytics/2015/September/04/NFP.png

 

On the new week, we expect the US Dollar to extend the upside gradually. Next bullish targets for the USD index lie at 97 and 98.50 points. We still remain long on the greenback versus the commodity block currencies.

 

Economic calendar for the new week is rather light. On Monday, the US markets will be closed due to the Labor Day. On Thursday, we’ll watch the unemployment claims, while on Friday the market will focus on PPI. Investors are gradually positioning ahead of the Fed’s September 17 meeting.

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Analytics/2015/September/04/usd%20index%20weekly.png

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6324

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

 

EUR/USD: weekly wave analysis

7 September 2015

 

Roman Petuchov

 

Daily. Bearish trend [C] is now being developped. Complex corrective wave (4) has been finished recently. We're now declining in a new bearish impulse (5). Price decline in this wave will likely continue in the coming weeks.

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/%D0%92%D0%BE%D0%BB%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%BE%D0%B9/Petukhov_7August/eurusd2.PNG

 

H4. Correction [2] could be accomplished on the past week. On the new week we expect the bearish move to the South to be extended.

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/%D0%92%D0%BE%D0%BB%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%BE%D0%B9/Petukhov_7August/eurusd2.PNG

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6336

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

 

AUD/USD: weekly wave analysis

7 September 2015

 

Roman Petuchov

 

Daily. The price keeps on declining in a final part of an impulse A. Wave (5) of [5] of A is now being formed. Let's see the markup in the details.

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/%D0%92%D0%BE%D0%BB%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%BE%D0%B9/Petukhov_7August/audusd1.PNG

 

H4. On the past week we've seen a new 5-wave construction 5 being formed. It will likely be finished on Monday or on Tuesday.

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/%D0%92%D0%BE%D0%BB%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%BE%D0%B9/Petukhov_7August/audusd2.PNG

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6339

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

 

USD/JPY: weekly wave analysis

7 September 2015

 

Roman Petuchov

 

Daily. The market is now trading in the final part of the long-term bullish trend. Correction (IV) has been accomplished. After that the price growth continued. Let's see the chart in the details.

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/%D0%92%D0%BE%D0%BB%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%BE%D0%B9/Petukhov_7August/usdjpy1.PNG

 

H4. We are now observing the final part of the wave 2 being formed. At the beginning of the new week we expect the price to jump in an impulse wave 3.

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/%D0%92%D0%BE%D0%BB%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%BE%D0%B9/Petukhov_7August/usdjpy2.PNG

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6338

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

 

AUD/USD: weekly wave analysis

 

Roman Petuchov

 

Daily. The price keeps on declining in a final part of an impulse A. Wave (5) of [5] of A is now being formed. Let's see the markup in the details.

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/%D0%92%D0%BE%D0%BB%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%BE%D0%B9/Petukhov_7August/audusd1.PNG

 

H4. On the past week we've seen a new 5-wave construction 5 being formed. It will likely be finished on Monday or on Tuesday.

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/%D0%92%D0%BE%D0%BB%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%BE%D0%B9/Petukhov_7August/audusd2.PNG

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6339

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

 

Forex trading plan for September 8

 

By Elizabeth Belugina

 

Early on Tuesday China will release August trade balance data, and we’ll find out whether weaker yuan has managed to improve the nation's exports. There’s no specific time of the release, so beware of increased volatility during the Asian session. Another important release in the morning will be Australian NAB business confidence index due at 01:30 GMT. AUD/USD touched levels below 0.6900 on Monday. Support is at 0.6900, 0.6855 (April 2009 low) and 0.6800. Resistance is at 0.7000, 0.7065 and 0.7100.

 

US labor market data released on Friday keeps the door open for the Federal Reserve’s rate hike on September 17. Still, there are plenty of risks for American economy and market can only guess what the Fed decides. There are no important releases scheduled on Tuesday in Europe and the Unites States, so traders will continue analyzing monetary policy outlook for the Fed and the ECB. This should keep EUR/USD capped by 1.1270/1300. In the past session, the pair found some support in the 1.1090/1.1120 area. The euro’s ability to stay above this area will depend on figures from China: improvement in data may get the single currency down. Next support is at 1.1015/00.

 

GBP/USD found support in the 1.5170 zone and recovered towards 1.5280 without distinctive fundamental drivers. Daily сlose above 1.5272 will open the way to 1.5330/55 (200-day MA) area which should provide resistance. On the downside, support lies at 1.5164 (Friday low) and 1.5088 (May lows).

 

USD/JPY has resistance at 119.60 and 120.70. Below this last level, the pair will stay in short-term downtrend. On the downside, we focus on 118.60 and 118.30. Dynamics in the coming session will depend on the market’s risk sentiment and, consequently, Chinese statistics. In addition, watch the release of Japanese current account data early on Tuesday. The higher the surplus, the more negative it will be for USD/JPY.

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6349

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

 

Danske Bank: trade signals for September 8

 

Open positions*:

 

EUR/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.1175, TAKE PROFIT 1.1017, STOP LOSS 1.1252

 

USD/JPY: Hold SHORT at 121.15, TAKE PROFIT 118.26, STOP LOSS 120.80 (revised)

 

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.9580, TAKE PROFIT 0.9799, STOP LOSS 0.9565

 

AUD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.7215, TAKE PROFIT 0.6771, STOP LOSS 0.7099

 

USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.3185, TAKE PROFIT 1.3384, STOP LOSS 1.3100

 

EUR/GBP: Hold LONG at 0.7300, TAKE PROFIT 0.7483, STOP LOSS 0.7240

 

EUR/CAD: Hold SHORT at 1.4840, TAKE PROFIT 1.4387, STOP LOSS 1.5010

 

GBP/JPY: Hold SHORT at 183.35, TAKE PROFIT 178.48, STOP LOSS 184.85

 

NZD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.6405, TAKE PROFIT 0.6092, STOP LOSS 0.6420

 

Trade ideas:

 

EUR/JPY: SELL at 133.55, TAKE PROFIT 131.31, STOP LOSS 134.72

 

GBP/USD: SELL at 1.5329, TAKE PROFIT 1.5089, STOP LOSS 1.5449

 

EUR/CHF: BUY at 1.0820, TAKE PROFIT 1.1040, STOP LOSS 1.0709

 

___________________________________________________________________

 

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6355

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

 

Forex trading plan for September 9

 

By Elizaveta Belugina

 

EUR/USD spiked to 1.1229 on the disappointing Chinese imports data, but then fell to 1.1160. The euro wasn’t impressed by the upward revision of the euro area’s Q2 GDP growth from 0.3% to 0.4%. We stick to the view that the pair should be sold on the upside. The focus is on the support area of 1.1120 and 1.1090 ahead of 1.1015. Resistance is at 1.1265 (200-day MA).

 

GBP/USD rose to 1.5400 where it found some resistance. Pay attention to the UK manufacturing production and trade balance due at 08:30 GMT. Traders will be looking forwards to the Bank of England’s meeting on Thursday, the expectation will likely be negative. Further resistance is at 1.5425 (August 7 low) and 1.5500 (100-day MA). Support is at 1.5330, 1.5290 and 1.5250.

 

USD/JPY went up and tested levels above 120.00 as the market’s risk sentiment improved encouraged by gains in European stocks. The key resistance is located in the 120.70 area: the short-term bearish trend will prevail until USD/JPY breaks higher. Support is at 119.60 and 119.00.

 

AUD/USD corrected up to 0.6980. During the Asian session on Wednesday Australia will release Westpac consumer sentiment index and home loans indicator. In addition, pay attention to the speeches of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s Lowe and Debelle. Resistance is at 0.7100 and 0.7180. Support is at 0.6950 and 0.6900.

 

USD/CAD slid from 1.3300 to 1.3200. The results of the Bank of Canada’s meeting will be announced at 14:00 GMT. The recent data from Canada were rather well. Still, the Bank of Canada may express concerns about the low oil prices. Buying on the dips to 0.7170/30 seems like a good idea, though there’s a bunch of resistance levels in the 1.3300/30 area.

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6364

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

 

Pound trading within cloud

9 September 2015

 

Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst

 

The GBP/USD currency pair rate has recovered significantly within the last two trading sessions. The pair found support in the ​​52nd figure area and then began to recover rapidly within the correctional movement. The short-term bullish sentiment of the market participants was supported by the Tenkan and Kijun lines yesterday that had formed a golden cross. It was immediately followed by a break through the four-hour Ichimoku cloud lower border resistance, which bounds us to speak about the pair's further consolidation within a fairly wide price range of 1.5300-1.5500. It obviously makes sense to wait for the prices to pull back to the Tenkan and Kijun lines in the near future and to be on the bulls' side up until the Ichimoku cloud upper border.

 

Technical levels: support – 1.5300; resistance1 – 1.5480.

 

Trade recommendations:

 

1. Buy — 1.5300; SL — 1.5280; TP1 — 1.5400; TP2 — 1.5480.

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Analytics/2015/September/09/gbpusdh4-TN.png

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6366

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

 

EUR/NZD: sell target - 1.7300

9 September 2015

 

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

 

-EUR/NZD reached buy target 1.7750

-Next sell target - 1.7300

 

EUR/NZD recently reversed down sharply after the price reached the resistance level 1.7750, which was set as the buy target in our previous forecast for this currency pair. After initially reversing down from this resistance level the pair made two unsuccessful attempts to break above 1.7750 – forming two consecutive Japanese candlestick reversal patterns Bearish Engulfing (as you can see below).

 

EUR/NZD is likely to fall further inside the active minor impulse wave 3 toward the next support level 1.7300 (which reversed the price with the daily Morning Star at the end of August).

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/DIMA%20CHE/EURNZD%20-%20Primary%20Analysis%20-%20Sep-09%201016%20AM%20(1%20day).png

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6371

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

 

EUR/GBP: sell target - 0.7200

9 September 2015

 

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

 

-EUR/GBP falls inside intermediate impulse wave (3)

-Next sell target - 0.7200

 

EUR/GBP continues to fall after the price earlier reversed down strongly from the resistance zone lying between the resistance level 0.7400 (which stopped the previous primary ABC correction ②), the upper daily Bollinger Band and the 38.2% Fibonacci Correction of the previous downward impulse wave from last October. The downward reversal from this resistance zone completed the latest intermediate correction (2).

 

EUR/GBP is likely to fall further in the active impulse wave (3) toward the next sell target at the support level 0.7200 (former resistance level which reversed the previous wave (4) in July). Strong resistance remains at 0.7400.

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/DIMA%20CHE/EURGBP%20-%20Primary%20Analysis%20-%20Sep-09%201010%20AM%20(1%20day).png

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6370

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

 

Forex trading plan for September 10

 

By Elizaveta Belugina

 

EUR/USD slid to 1.1130. Support is at 1.1125 and 1.1090. Decline below these levels will confirm a temporary top and open the way for a fall to 1.1015/00. Early on Thursday the pair’s dynamics will depend on the market’s risk sentiment as China will release inflation figures. US will publish unemployment claims at 12:30 GMT. Trading is expected to be volatile. The upside for the euro will likely be limited.

 

GBP/USD met resistance at 1.5400. The bears are trying to pull the pound below the 200-day MA at 1.5353. Britain released a bunch of dismal economic data on Wednesday: manufacturing production contracted in August, while trade deficit widened. On Thursday, traders will be focused on the Bank of England’s meeting and minutes at 11:00 GMT. Markets will be expecting dovish comments from British central bank. Such expectations will be negative for GBP/USD.

 

USD/JPY is testing resistance in the 121.00 area. The pair rose above September 3 high of 120.70 that is a bullish development. Above 121.00 the next resistance will be at 121.70 and 122.00. Support is at 120.20 and 119.60.

 

AUD/USD keeps correcting to the upside. Positive comments from RBA Deputy Governor Lowe overshadowed decline in consumer sentiment. Above 0.7070 Aussie may be able to rise to 0.7180/0.7200. Support is at 0.7015 and 0.6980. Traders await Chinese inflation & Australian employment data due at 01:30 GMT on Thursday.

 

NZD/USD rose above 0.6400. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to cut the benchmark rate from 3% to 2.75%. Such action of the central bank is already priced in NZD/USD, so for a considerable decline of the pair something really negative should happen. Resistance is at 0.6500 and 0.6580. Support is at 0.6315/00.

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6375

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

 

AUD/NZD: buy target - 1.1250

10 September 2015

 

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

 

-AUD/NZD reversed from pivotal support level 1.0940

-Next buy target - 1.1250

 

AUD/NZD recently reversed up sharply from the pivotal support level 1.0940 (which reversed earlier waves A, (b) and (i), as you can see from the daily AUD/NZD chart below). The support zone near this support level was strengthened by the lower daily Bollinger Band and by the 38.2% Fibonacci Correction of the previous sharp upward impulse wave from April.

 

The pair is likely to rise further in the active minor corrective wave (ii) toward the next buy target at the resistance level 1.1250 (which reversed the price at the end of August). Strong support remains at 1.0940.

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/DIMA%20CHE/AUDNZD%20-%20Primary%20Analysis%20-%20Sep-10%201023%20AM%20(1%20day).png

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6383

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

 

Trading plan for September 11

 

Kira Iukhtenko

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7R9fFI_xy0Q

 

US Dollar remains under slight bearish pressure as investors doubt the Fed will dare to hike interest rates in September. USD index slipped below 96 points. On Friday we’ll be watching the US PPI and consumer sentiment index - both forecasts are downbeat, so selling pressure on USD could persist till the end of the week.

 

EUR/USD jumped far above 1.1200 on Thursday following the last week’s dip to 1.1080. Next resistance is seen at 1.1330. On Friday we’ll watch the final German CPI. EU finance ministers are scheduled to meet in Brussels to discuss the most urgent issues in the regional economy.

 

Meanwhile, GBP/USD surged above 1.5450, supported by a slightly more hawkish Bank of England. Monetary authorities resumed talks about a potential rate hike in the near term and don’t see the crisis in China as a serious obstacle. On Friday the BOE member Forbes is scheduled to speak.

 

Reserve Bank of New Zealand shocked the market on Thursday, cutting its benchmark rate down to 2.75%. NZD/USD lost about 150 points on the news, but found some support around 0.6270. Resistance is seen at 0.6300 and 0.6400. As for AUD/USD, a fix above 0.7050 will pave the ground for a correction to 0.7200/50.

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6389

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

 

EUR/CAD: buy target - 1.5200

11 September 2015

 

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

 

-EUR/CAD rises inside intermediate correction (2)

-Next buy target - 1.5200

 

EUR/CAD recently reversed down sharply – after the pair reached the buy target 1.5400, set in our previous forecast for this currency pair. The subsequent downward impulse wave (1) stopped in the support zone lying between the support level 1.4650 and the 50% Fibonacci Correction of the previous upward impulse from the end of June (as can be seen from the daily EUR/CAD chart below).

 

The pair is likely to rise further in the active intermediate corrective wave (2) toward the next buy target at the resistance level 1.5200 (target price calculated for the completion of this correction).

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/DIMA%20CHE/EURCAD%20-%20Primary%20Analysis%20-%20Sep-11%201020%20AM%20(1%20day).png

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6394

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

 

EUR/CHF: buy target - 1.1100

11 September 2015

 

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

 

-EUR/CHF reached buy target 1.0950

-Next buy target - 1.1100

 

EUR/CHF recently broke above the resistance level 1.0950, which was set in our previous report as the buy target for this currency pair. The breakout of this resistance level continues the active minor impulse wave 5, which started earlier in August – when the pair reversed up strongly from the support zone lying between the support level 1.0740, 38.2% Fibonacci Correction of the previous impulse from June and the upper channel line of the daily up channel from April.

 

EUR/CHF is likely to rise further in the active impulse waves 5 and (3) toward the next buy target at the resistance level 1.1100 (target for the termination of wave (3)).

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/DIMA%20CHE/EURCHF%20-%20Primary%20Analysis%20-%20Sep-11%201015%20AM%20(1%20day).png

 

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http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6393

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

 

USD/JPY: forecast for September 14-20

 

By Elizabeth Belugina

 

Japanese yen has weakened versus the US currency in the past week because of the expectations of the Bank of Japan’s additional monetary policy easing. These expectations revived as the adviser to Japanese premier Shinzo Abe said that the central bank’s October meeting presents a “good opportunity” for further quantitative easing (QE). Such comments hit the markers, which were worried because of the recent weak Japan’s economic figures and the volatility in stocks.

 

For now, the Bank of Japan’s Governor Kuroda stubbornly sticks to the positive view on Japan’s economic prospects underlining that the regulator’s policy is loose enough. Next week we will hear from Kuroda on Tuesday at the Bank of Japan’s press conference and on Thursday when he is due to make a speech. Still, as the comments of Japanese central bank come before the meeting of the US Federal Reserve, we do not think that the position of Japanese regulator may seriously change. So, we believe that the Bank of Japan’s Tuesday meeting will not seriously affect the market.

 

Note that during the most part of the upcoming trading week players will be in the situation of the uncertainty trying to foresee whether the Fed announces a rate hike on Thursday or not. Another source of uncertainty is China, which will publish industrial production data on Sunday, September 13. This uncertainty will limit USD/JPY on the upside.

 

USD/JPY may consolidate in the 120.70/119.00 area ahead of the Fed. On the upside, further resistance lies at 121.70, 122.00 and 122.50. On the downside, further support is at 118.30/00 and in the 116.00 zone.

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Analytics/2015/September/10/USDJPYDaily.png

 

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http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6398

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

 

EUR/USD: forecast for September 14-20

 

 

By Elizabeth Belugina

 

EUR/USD got support from the 100-day MA in the 1.11 zone and managed to creep up to the 1.13 area.

 

In the medium term, the euro area’s fundamentals look weak, and the European Central Bank’s focus on policy easing will keep the euro under pressure. In the short-term, however, one should be cautious with the euro shorts. Even if the US Federal Reserve rates rate in September, euro may hold its ground after the initial decline as the market’s risk sentiment will likely deteriorate supporting demand for the euro as a refuge currency.

 

Next week the focus will surely be on American economic releases. In the euro area, pay attention to German ZEW economic sentiment on Tuesday and the region’s current account data on Thursday. On Sunday, September 20, there will be parliamentary election in Greece. According to the latest polls, no political party is able to gain majority, so Greece will likely face the coalition government, which may be rather difficult to form. The event may create moderate negative risks for the euro.

 

Overall, we prepare for a volatile trading week. The main levels to watch on the downside are 1.1100, 1.1015 and 1.0950. On the upside, resistance is at 1.1330 and 1.1436/66.

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Analytics/2015/September/10/EURUSDDaily.png

 

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http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6400

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

 

GBP/USD: forecast for September 14-20

 

By Elizabeth Belugina

 

The Bank of England left monetary policy unchanged. Only one member of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted to raise the benchmark interest rate. One of the main things was that the central bank played down the impact of China’s stock-market slump on Britain’s economic prospects. In addition, some members saw continued upside risks to the inflation outlook. Overall, the Bank of England was not as dovish as expected allowing the cable to rise to 1.5475. The market expects the central bank to raise rates in the beginning of 2016.

 

At the same time, the series of weak UK economic data releases cast doubt over the BOE’s outlook on the interest rates and may limit the sterling’s advance together with uncertainty ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s meeting on Thursday.

 

GBP/USD is facing the bearish Ichimoku Cloud on the weekly chart. The pair approached significant resistance area of 1.5515/35 (100- and 55-day MAs). However, sterling has managed to settle above the 200-day MA at 1.5350 and a move below this support is needed to return the full power to the bears. Further support is at 1.5250.

 

Next week the UK will release inflation figures on Tuesday, labor market data on Wednesday and retail sales on Thursday. In addition, on Saturday, September 12, the new leader of Britain's main opposition Labour Party will be announced. The leader will likely be from the party’s left wing, which opposes austerity measures, so this may lead to some bearish pressure on sterling.

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Analytics/2015/September/10/GBPUSDDaily.png

 

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http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6399