Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

15 December 2014

 

Key option levels

 

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (15:00 GMT).

 

Here are the key currency options expiring today:

 

USD/JPY: 117.50 (USD 754M), 118.80 (USD 1B), 120.00 (USD 665M), 121.00 (USD 1.1B)

EUR/USD: 1.2200 (EUR 1.2B), 1.2400 (EUR 1.5B), 1.2450 (EUR 730M), 1.2500 (EUR 3.0B)

GBP/USD: 1.6000 (GBP 304M)

USD/CHF: 0.9635-40 (USD 315M)

USD/CAD: 1.1500 (USD 352M), 1.1600 (USD 352M), 1.1700 (USD 512M)

AUD/USD: 0.8275

EUR/GBP: 0.7875

AUD/JPY: 100.00 (AUD 510M)

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/2102

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

 

Forex trading plan for Dec. 16

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1YVW-59uZJc

 

US dollar firmed versus all the major currencies on Monday as investors await the Fed’s meeting outcome on Wednesday. Given the recent strong US releases, part of market players expect the US monetary authorities to turn more hawkish in December.

 

EUR/USD holds below the 1.2500 mark as the expectations for the ECB’s QE keep on growing. On Tuesday watch the euro zone’s PMIs and ZEW economic activity indices – forecasts are upbeat. Break above 1.2500 could open the way for a higher rebound towards 1.2600, while support is seen at 1.2350.

 

GBP/USD fell from 1.5745 down to 1.5630. Watch the UK inflation data on Tuesday – price growth is expected to have slowed further in November. BOE Governor Marc Carney will deliver a speech tomorrow.

 

AUD/USD hovers near its 4.5-year lows slightly above the 0.8200 mark. This figure acts as a support these days, but the medium-term picture remains bearish. The RBA is scheduled to release its meeting minutes tonight. What’s more, the Aussie could also be influenced by the Chinese HSBC manufacturing PMI tonight (forecast – downbeat).

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/3082

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

 

Dec. 16: MARKET OVERVIEW

 

USD/JPY: edged down to 117.12. Yen strengthened as demand for it as a safe haven rose after crude oil slumped by 4.8% to $55.02 a barrel on Monday and Russia raised interest rates from 10.5 to 17% on Tuesday.

 

China’s HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI fell below the crucial 50 mark for the first time in 7 months, coming below the forecast at 49.5. RBA monetary policy minutes show a cheaper currency is needed to support the economy. AUD/USD tested the 0.8200 mark to the downside, but found some support here.

 

Markets await flash manufacturing and services PMI's and ZEW economic sentiment readings for Germany and the region. First figures will be released at 8:30 GMT. EUR/USD hovers around 1.2440.

 

GBP/USD: rose a bit to 1.5665. The UK will release bank stress tests results and the Bank of England’s Financial Stability Report at 07:00 GMT. Governor Mark Carney will speak at 09:00 GMT. At 09:30 GMT Britain will release November inflation figures.

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/2104

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

 

Key option levels

 

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (15:00 GMT).

 

Here are the key options expiring today:

 

EUR/USD: 1.2300 (EUR 706m) 1.2500 (EUR 1.3bln) 1.2550 (EUR 789m);

 

GBP/USD: 1.5800 (GBP 747m);

 

USD/JPY: 117.00 (USD 2.7bln), 118.00 (USD 1.7bln), 119.00 (USD 1.3bln), 120.00 (USD 3.68bln);

 

USD/CAD: 1.1500 (USD 340m);

 

EUR/GBP: 0.7820 (EUR 829m) 0.7975 (EUR 501m);

 

AUD/JPY: 98.00 (AUD 600m).

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/2105

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

 

Danske Bank: trade signals for Dec. 16

 

Open positions:*

 

EUR/USD: Hold LONG from 1.2370, Take Profit 1.2602, Stop Loss 1.2335

 

AUD/USD: Hold SHORT from 0.8566, Take Profit 0.8083, Stop Loss 0.8309

 

USD/CAD: Hold LONG from 1.1435, Take Profit 1.1680, Stop Loss 1.1530

 

EUR/GBP: Hold SHORT from 0.7919, Take Profit 0.7767, Stop Loss 0.7989

 

Trade ideas:

 

EUR/CHF: SELL at 1.2032, Take Profit 1.1971, Stop Loss 1.2050

 

EUR/CAD: BUY at 1.4415, Take Profit 1.4735, Stop Loss 1.4350

 

USD/JPY: Look to SELL

 

NZD/USD: Look to SELL

 

GBP/USD: Possibly SELL

 

EUR/JPY: Look to SELL

 

GBP/JPY: Possibly SELL

 

USD/CHF: Look to SELL

 

____________________________

 

*Danske Bank applies trailing-stop orders (moved together with the price)

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/3091

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

 

Forex trading plan for Dec. 17

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EpebPbBciuI

 

EUR/USD pushed higher on the back of the better-than-expected euro zone’s PMI and ZEW economic activity indices. The pair met resistance at 1.2560 as we speak. Push higher would open the way to 1.2600 and then, potentially, to 1.2900. On Wednesday euro zone is scheduled to release final November CPI (forecast: unchanged at +0.3%). However, the pair will mostly be driven by the Fed’s meeting expectations.

 

GBP/USD rose as the USD was broadly weaker on Tuesday plus the British banks stress tests results were quite encouraging. Lower-than-expected British consumer prices have tempered the advance: so far the bulls have failed to overcome resistance is in the 1.5800 area. Further resistance is at 1.5830 and 1.5875. Tomorrow the UK is expected to release rather positive labor market data. Also watch the publication of the Bank of England’s meeting minutes (09:30 GMT). Support is at 1.5650 and 1.5600. The Fed’s meeting will be decisive for the pair.

 

USD/JPY tested levels below 115.60: yen is in demand as a safe haven. The pair’s tested the 2-month support line and is vulnerable for a decline to 113.50 (50% Fibo of the Oct.-Dec. advance; 55-day MA). Resistance is at 117.30 and 117.95.

 

AUD/USD tested the 0.8200 mark to the downside, but remains resistive for now. There are no releases scheduled in Australia for tomorrow, to the pair will also depend on the Fed. Break below 0.8200 could open the way to new lows of 0.8060. The medium-term picture remains bearish.

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/3095

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

 

Dec. 17: MARKET OVERVIEW

 

GBP/USD: weakened to 1.5715. Britain will release unemployment claims data and the Bank of England’s meeting minutes at 09:30 GMT.

 

USD/JPY: rose back to 117.00 after weakening to 115.60 yesterday. US dollar strengthened before the Fed announces the results of its meeting today.

 

AUD/USD has finally broken below the 0.8200 and reached 0.8150 in the Asian trade. There was no particular news for that, market focus on the negative factors has intensified.

 

NZD/USD under pressure around 0.7730. RBNZ said the kiwi rate remains “unjustifiable, unsustainable”.

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/2106

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

17 December 2014

 

Key option levels

 

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (15:00 GMT).

 

Here are the key options expiring today:

 

EUR/USD: 1.2400 (EUR 750m), 1.2500 (EUR 2bln), 1.2575 (EUR 1.1bln), 1.2600 (EUR 1.3bln);

 

GBP/USD: 1.5630;

 

USD/JPY: 115.00 (USD 500m), 116.25/30 (USD 440m), 116.50 (USD 1.6bln), 116.75 (USD 410m), 117.00 (USD 603m), 117.20 (USD 560m), 118.25 (USD 1.4bln), 119.50 (USD 4.8bln);

 

USD/CHF: 0.9390 (USD550m), 0.9500;

 

USD/CAD: 1.1400 (USD 1bln), 1.1600 (USD 1.5bln);

 

AUD/USD: 0.8300 (AUD 265m);

 

EUR/GBP: 0.7800, 0.7975.

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/2107

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

 

Danske Bank: trade signals for Dec. 17

 

Trade ideas:*

 

EUR/USD: Hold LONG from 1.2370, Take Profit 1.2602, Stop Loss 1.2335

 

EUR/GBP: Hold SHORT from 0.7919, Take Profit 0.7767, Stop Loss 0.7989

 

AUD/USD: Hold SHORT from 0.8566, Take Profit 0.8083, Stop Loss 0.8309

 

USD/CAD: Hold LONG from 1.1435, Take Profit 1.1680, Stop Loss 1.1530

 

EUR/CHF: Hold SHORT from 1.2032, Take Profit 1.1971, Stop Loss 1.2050

 

Open positions:

 

EUR/CAD: BUY at 1.4415, Take Profit 1.4735, Stop Loss 1.4350

 

USD/JPY: Possibly SELL

 

GBP/USD: Possibly SELL

 

USD/CHF: Possibly SELL

 

NZD/USD: Possibly SELL

 

GBP/JPY: Possibly SELL

 

EUR/JPY: Possibly SELL on rallies

 

__________________________

 

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/3099

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

 

Dec. 18: MARKET OVERVIEW

 

USD: remains on strong positions after yesterday’s advance versus the major currencies. The Fed is expected to raise interest rates next year after removing a pledge to keep them low for a “considerable time.”

 

EUR/USD: is trading in the 1.2340 area after falling by more than 160 pips on Wednesday. German Ifo Business Climate is due at 09:00 GMT (forecast: 105.6). Today is the first day of the EU economic summit.

 

GBP/USD: is trading below 1.5600. Britain will release retail sales at 09:30 GMT (forecast: +0.3%).

 

USD/JPY: recovered to the levels just below 119.00.

 

AUD/USD: recovered a bit from a 4 1/2-year low just above 0.8100 hit yesterday as a gain in Asian stocks spurred demand for higher-yielding assets.

 

NZD/USD: managed to return back above 0.7700 as New Zealand’s GDP came out higher than expected (+1.0% vs. forecast of +0.7%).

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/2112

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

18 December 2014

 

Key option levels

 

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (15:00 GMT).

 

Here are the key options expiring today:

 

EUR/USD: 1.2300 (EUR 2.7bln), 1.2400 (EUR 2bln), 1.2430 (EUR 500m), 1.2450 (EUR 572m), 1.2500 (EUR 866m), 1.2500/05 (EUR 1.3bln), 1.2525 (EUR 1bln), 1.2600 (1.7bln);

 

USD/JPY: 116.50 (USD 1bln), 117.00 (USD 1.2bln), 117.65 (USD 1.5bln), 117.85/118.00 (USD 1.8bln);

 

NZD/USD: 0.7720 (NZD 250m);

 

EUR/CHF: 1.2010 (EUR 350m);

 

EUR/GBP: 0.7850 (EUR 770m), 0.7905 (EUR 400m);

 

EUR/JPY:147.50 (EUR 750m).

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/2113

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

 

Forex trading plan for Dec. 19

 

The FOMC meeting: a small step towards the rate hike, but it all depends on inflation.

 

EUR/USD approaches the 2014 lows on the increased Fed hike expectations. Friday’s focus will be on the GfK German Consumer Climate (7:00 GMT).

 

USD/CHF, EUR/CHF: Swiss franc fell as the SNB introduced negative interest rates.

 

USD/JPY: recovered from support, next stop – the Bank of Japan’s meeting.

 

GBP/USD: tested 1.5540, but remains range bound.

 

Commodity currencies recover versus the USD amid improved risk appetite.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CyVoykxQ5b8

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/3122

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

 

Dec. 19: MARKET OVERVIEW

 

Risk sentiment has improved by the end of the week: Asian stocks showed good gains following growth on Wall Street on the relief that the Fed isn’t in a hurry to withdraw stimulus from the US economy. Stocks gained even despite oil stayed under pressure (Brent inched up 11 cents to $59.38 having lost over a $1.00 on Thursday). This means that investors are starting to see the positive sides in lower fuel costs. Japanese Nikkei climbed 2.0%, while Australia’s main index went up by 2.1%.

 

USD/JPY rose to 119.40: as the Bank of Japan maintained unprecedented stimulus. The BOJ offered a brighter view of the economy in a sign of confidence Japan can weather global market turbulence.

 

EUR/USD consolidates at 1.2280, slightly above the 2014 lows. Watch the GfK German Consumer Climate at 7:00 GMT.

 

AUD/USD remains supported at 0.8170, NZD/USD – at 0.7780. December ANZ Business Confidence above the forecast (31.5 vs. 30.4 expected).

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/2116

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

 

EURUSD: weekly review (19/12)

 

Tatiana Norkina analyst FBS

 

Daily. Last week the pair recovered to the lower border of Ichimoku cloud. But the bulls run out of power and the end of the week the pair was again in the negative area. Bears do not unloose the grip, continuing major downtrend.

 

At the same time, oscillators are growing and forming the divergence. In addition to this, the attention should be paid to Tenkan and Kijun lines that narrowed the range of the channel to the maximum. It is possible that after lows testing at the beginning of December, one will see the growth of the pair to the 34th figure.

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Analytics/2014/December/19/eurusdd1.png

 

Graph. Daily EUR / USD

 

H4. At the four-hour timeframe the trading moved into the negative zone below Ichimoku Cloud again. Here the indicator lines rebuilt and support the bears now. Therefore the dead cross was formed, and the cloud was descending, these facts can be taken as a confirmation of the downtrend continuation in the near future.

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Analytics/2014/December/19/eurusdh4.png

 

Graph. H4 EUR / USD

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/3134

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

 

GBPUSD: weekly review (19/12)

 

Tatiana Norkina analyst FBS

 

Daily. The currency pair has continued to consolidate in the range of 1.5550-1.5800 more than a month. GBP/USD tested its upper bound last week, but it stumbled on resistance Kijun-sen line, and then jumped again to the bottom.

 

Ichimoku indicator is expected for the declining in the rate. When the pair is attached under Tenkan and Kijun lines near 1.5650 / 80, one will wait for the resumption of the downtrend.

 

Otherwise, attempts to restore the market to the lower boundary of the cloud are possible, but the probability of such scenario is quite low.

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Analytics/2014/December/19/gbpusdd1.png

 

Graph. Daily GBP / USD

 

H4. At the four-hour time frame the currency pair was fixed under the cloud at the end of the week. Moreover, the bulls are unable to break the resistance of the horizontal Kijun-sen in the area of 1.5650 / 80. Tenkan and Kijun lines formed a dead cross which became a signal for new sales of the pair. The cloud is also expanding down, strengthening the bearish disposition.

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Analytics/2014/December/19/gbpusdh4.png

 

Graph. H4 GBP / USD

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/3136

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

 

USDJPY: weekly review (19/12)

 

Tatiana Norkina, an analyst FBS

 

Daily. The situation on the currency pair can be described as the development of correction at the moment. Last week the pair went under the support of Tenkan and Kijun lines, fixing December lows at 115.50. But in the second half of the week the bulls managed to restore the pair to the 119th figure, breaking the resistance of the lines.

 

Securing of these levels would mean a speedy resumption of the uptrend. Otherwise, the correction may have a better sequel to test the level of the cloud top.

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Analytics/2014/December/19/usdjpyd1.png

 

Graph. Daily USD / JPY

 

H4. On four – hour graphs the trading was below Ichimoku Cloud. But pretty soon the bulls managed to return prices to the lower boundary, and break the resistance level of the strongest indicator lines by the end of the week.

 

Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-sen formed a golden cross, supporting the bullish determination.

 

Oscillators also moved into positive territory, showing that bulls took a tack at least at 120.70.

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Analytics/2014/December/19/usdjpyh4.png

 

Graph. H4 USD / JPY

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/3139

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

 

USDCHF: weekly review (19/12)

 

Tatiana Norkina, an analyst FBS

 

Daily. Bulls managed to resume the uptrend, using the support of the upper limit of the daily Ichimoku cloud. At the beginning of the week one could see a gradual depreciation of Senkou Span A. However, immediately after the level testing, the rate of the currency pair was soared to new highs above the 98th figure. As a result, Ichimoku indicator kept a positive attitude, leaving the active gold cross and expanding cloud up. Obviously, the bullish trend will be relevant in the near future.

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Analytics/2014/December/19/usdchfd1.png

 

Graph. Daily USD / CHF

 

H4. At the same time, the pair was quite overbought on the four-hour graphs - Chinkou line entered in the appropriate zone, threatening corrective depreciation at the beginning of the coming week.

 

Ichimoku indicator is quite optimistic: the gold cross is active, the cloud is bullish and continues to grow up.

 

Oscillators also emerged from the bearish area and focus on the "North".

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Analytics/2014/December/19/usdchfh4.png

Graph. H4 USD / CHF

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/3137

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

 

Dec. 22: MARKET OVERVIEW

 

Risk sentiment in this holiday-shortened week is rather good. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan extended gains and was up 1.1%. Australian shares surged 1.6%. Japan’s Nikkei stock average erased early gains and was flat ahead of a Japanese public holiday on Tuesday.

 

EUR/USD has recovered from the Friday’s low of 1.2210 to 1.2250. Euro zone is scheduled to release second-tire economic data today: German Import Prices and Consumer Confidence. This week the market will be focused on the Greek presidential election on Dec. 23 and 29. Greek President announced his readiness for consessions if the President will be elected in 2014.

 

AUD/USD returned to 0.8170 in Asia. The 0.8100 mark remains highly supportive.

 

GBP/USD rose a bit to 1.5650.

 

USD/JPY is trading in the 119.50 area after 3 days of growth.

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/2119

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

 

Dec. 23: MARKET OVERVIEW

 

EUR/USD consolidates at 1.2230, holding above the 2.5 year low of 1.2215. ECB easing expectations leave euro under pressure. Euro zone will release French consumer spending data at 8:45 GMT.

 

USD/JPY rose to a fresh 2-week high above 120.00: It’s a bank holiday in Japan, so the liquidity volume was lower than usually. Us dollar was helped by a record-closing high on Wall Street.

 

AUD/USD is testing the 0.8100 mark to the downside.

 

Watch the US economic figures later in the day: final Q3 GDP (forecast: upbeat), November durable goods orders, home prices and inflation.

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/2121

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

23 December 2014

 

Key option levels

 

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (15:00 GMT).

 

Here are the key options expiring today:

 

EUR/USD: 1.2150, 1.2200 (large), 1.2230 (USD 665m), 1.2300 (USD 1.4bln), 1.2320 (EUR 715m), 1.2350;

 

GBP/USD: 1.5600 (GBP 1.3bln);

 

USD/JPY: 119.50 (USD 300m), 120.00 (USD 528m), 121.00 (USD555m);

 

USD/CHF: 0.9800 (USD 800m);

 

USD/CAD: 1.1545 (USD 557m);

 

AUD/USD: 0.8250 (AUD 1.5bln);

 

NZD/USD: 0.7800 (NZD 1.9bln);

 

EUR/GBP: 0.7850, 0.7920.

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/2123

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

 

Dec. 24: MARKET OVERVIEW

 

US dollar remained in demand after a stunningly strong US economic growth spurred markets to bring forward the timing of a likely hike in interest rates (US Q3 GDP was revised to 5.0%). The dollar index reached highs not seen since April 2006.

 

Economic calendar for today is rather light with the US unemployment claims dominating the day.

 

USD/JPY declined from 120.75 to 120.30 as Japanese exporters were selling the national currency.

 

EUR/USD consolidates at 1.2170, pressured by the strong US economic figures.

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/2125

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

 

Dec. 29: MARKET OVERVIEW

 

FXBAZOOKA.com - EUR/USD consolidates slightly above the Friday's multi-month low of 1.2167. Investors await the key presidential vote in Greece that could trigger early parliamentary election if failed. The vote begins at 10:00 GMT, with the result likely around an hour later.

 

Meanwhile, Jens Weidmann, a member of the European Central Bank's Governing Council and the president of Germany's Bundesbank, told a newspaper on Sunday that growth in Germany might be better than expected in the year 2015, and that the situation in Europe is not as bad as many people think.

 

USD/JPY holds a bit below the recent 2-week high of 120.83. Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe approved plans for a massive stimulus package worth of 3.5 trillion yen ($29 billion) in order to boost consumer spending and regional economic activity, trying to revive the economy.

 

This week the final US data reports of the year will be in focus, including CB consumer confidence index on Tuesday and weekly jobless claims on Wednesday.

 

More:

http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/2129

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

29 December 2014

 

EUR / USD: weekly wave analysis

 

Author: Roman Petukhov

 

Weekly. The market continues building the final part of a convergent horizontal triangle, forming a downward zigzag [E]. Let’s take a thorough look at its layout.

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Analytics/2014/December/29/eurusd1.PNG

Daily. We can see the layout of the zigzag [E]. The final downward impulse [v] of 5 of © of [E] is formed currently. When it is completed, the trend would unfold.

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Analytics/2014/December/29/eurusd2.PNG

 

H4. It’s most likely that this week we will see the formation of a small horizontal correction (iv), after the end of which the decline will continue for another 30-50 points in the wave (v). The trend will unfold after that and will begin an upward correction or impulse reduction. Thus, it’s recommended to trade cautiously in the turning point.

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Analytics/2014/December/29/eurusd3.PNG

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/3192

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

29 December 2014

USD/JPY: weekly wave analysis

 

by Roman Petukhov

 

Daily. Construction of a long-lasting and powerful uptrend V, the formation of which started after the end of triangle IV, is in progress.

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Analytics/2014/December/29/usdjpy1.PNG

 

H12. The chart contains the layout of wave V ending. We see that the last upward impulse (5) of [5] of V is being formed. Let us consider its internal structure to determine the trend potential for the upcoming week.

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Analytics/2014/December/29/usdjpy2.PNG

 

H4. Within wave (5), we can observe construction of a corrective wave 4, which is taking the form of an extended horizontal correction. When wave 4 is fully complete, which is to happen within the first few trading days of the new week, the price growth will continue up to the previous high level, as indicated on the chart.

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Analytics/2014/December/29/usdjpy3.PNG

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/3194

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

30 December 2014

 

Oil market: where is the bottom?

Kira Iukhtenko

 

The dramatic decline in oil prices has become the most important topic of the year 2014. Unexpected increase in oil production and weakened global demand halved the price from $115 to $60 per barrel in 6 months. Is this trend positive or negative for the global economy? As a rule of thumb, oil shocks often help the world economy to reload. For instance, the oil price crash in the year 1986 helped the economic growth to accelerate to 4.6% in the year 1988. 2008 oil depreciation also acted as a good support for the economy. According to the Oxford economics survey, every 20% price drop pushes global growth by 0.4% over the next 2-3 years. As a result, low prices could help to offset forecasted slowdown of the global economic growth in the coming years.

 

Cheap energy: what does it mean for the world economy?

 

Impact on the global economy clearly won’t be homogeneous. Oil-consuming countries dependent on imports will benefit from cheap energy. Most notably, these are the developing countries with high inflation (India, Indonesia). China - the largest oil consumer – will also feel the positive effect from the current price turmoil. United States still remain a net oil importer ($200 billion net imports in July 2013 – July 2014) and will also stay in profit. The current price setup clearly hurts the shale oil producers. However, Goldman Sachs is convinced: it will cost less than 0.1% of GDP for the US economy. Japan and euro area also enjoy cheap resources. However, this sword cuts both ways: low prices complicate the governmental fight with disinflationary pressures. With an average price of $60 dollar per barrel inflation will fall below zero in 13 euro area countries in the year 2015.

 

Meanwhile, economic prospects of the oil-exporting countries remain gloomy. The countries which failed to save and invest the enormous oil incomes they had over the past decade will likely suffer – Venezuela, Iran, and Russia. Saudi Arabia’s economic policy proved to be wiser: in the high prices era the government managed to build large sovereign wealth funds which will act as a safe airbag in the new reality.

 

Fun fact: 10 largest oil exporting countries account for 6.5% of the global GDP, while 10 largest oil importers including Europe, USA and China, account for 65% of the global GDP. Positive effect is clearly dominating on the global balance pan.

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Analytics/2014/December/29/oill.png

Source: WSJ

 

2015 price outlook

 

Where is the bottom for the oil price? Given the Saudi’s clear unwillingness to lower output, we see prospects for more downside to come in the first half of the year 2015 – at least until the next OPEC meeting in summer. In the coming months we could see new dips towards $40 or even $20 dollars per barrel – this is how the economic wars are done. However, let’s try to be not too pessimistic. Recovery back above $100 per barrel seems to be unlikely, but in the first half of the year we could see prices back around $70-80 per barrel. Rich Persian Gulf countries can’t leave prices under pressure for too long – that could lead to social unrest in the region. These players will be forced to soften their positions or we’ll see new “Arab springs” in the very near future. One way or another, but the price will finally be lifted.

 

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