Jump to content

Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS


Anna FBS

Recommended Posts

USD/JPY & US durable goods orders: Greenback ahead of Jackson Hole

8/25/2016

 

Today at 12:30 GMT we'll know the US durable goods orders on a monthly basis, where the analysts are looking for an increase from -3.9% to 3.3%. This data could be a market mover for today in US dollar, alongside with the Jackson Hole Symposium that will start today and Janet Yellen is due to speak on Friday. That rise from the durable goods orders is highly expected, following it had a dip on the last month's reading of 3.9%.

 

In terms of technical analysis, the USD/JPY pair at H1 chart is showing us a triangle pattern in formation between the 100.87 and 99.63 levels, According to the recent price action, the pair may face some selling pressure around the 200 SMA on this timeframe, as for now, it didn't manage to consolidate above it. However, if the pair does a breakout with a big candlestick at that zone to the upside, our next target would be the 101.00 psychological level.

 

USDJPYH1(3).png

 

More:

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10191

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 2.5k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

USD/JPY: calm before the storm

8/25/2016

 

On the daily chart USD/JPY is consolidating in the 99.8-100.8 area. The break of resistance at 100.83 will allow the correction to continue towards 102.25 and 102.69. If the pair renews August low, this will be a signal of the downtrend resumption and will send the pair to 98.96 and 97.84.

 

Screenshot_2016_08_25_07_30_52.png

 

On H1 USD/JPY is finishing a triangle. If the pair rises above the upper border of the pattern and then gets to 100.83, its chances to reach 88.6% target (102) пof the "Bat" pattern will increase. On the other hand, break of support at 99.95 will mean resumption of the downtrend.

 

Screenshot_2016_08_25_07_31_12.png

 

More:

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10192

Link to comment
Share on other sites

USD/CAD: bulls are fighting back

8/25/2016

 

On the daily USD/CAD chart there was an unsuccessful attempt of bears to make the prices leave the rising triangle. Recoil from convergence area at 1.273-1.276 (88.6% of the Shark pattern + 61.8% Fibo of the last medium-term bullish wave) let the bulls take the lead. If the pair manages to settle above resistance at 1.2956-1.2977, risks of growth towards 1.3076 and 1.3306 will increase.

 

Screenshot_2016_08_25_07_38_08.png

 

On H1 USD/CAD the downtrend changed to the uptrend. Break of resistance at 1.2956 will let the pair keep rising toewards convergence area of 1.303-1.3034 (161.8% target of AB=CD + 61.8% Fibo of the last bearish wave).

 

Screenshot_2016_08_25_07_38_29.png

 

More:

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10193

Link to comment
Share on other sites

EUR/USD: back into the Cloud

8/25/2016

 

Technical levels: support – 1.1270, 1.1230, 1.1200; resistance – 1.1330, 1.1360, 1.1450.

 

Trade recommendations:

 

1. Buy — 1.1200; SL — 1.1180; TP1 — 1.1330; TP2 – 1.1360.

 

Reason: a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, but the bullish Ichimoku Cloud.

 

01-eurusdh4(27).png

 

More:

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10194

Link to comment
Share on other sites

AUD/USD: rebounding from the Senkou Span B

8/25/2016

 

Technical levels: support – 0.7590, 0.7620; resistance – 0.7680, 0.7720.

 

Trade recommendations:

 

1. Buy — 0.7620; SL — 0.7600; TP1 — 0.7680; TP2 — 0.7720.

 

Reason: a new golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; bullish Ichimoku Cloud; strong support of Senkou Span B.

 

03-audusdh4(12).png

 

More:

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10195

Link to comment
Share on other sites

EUR/USD: bears going to reach next support

8/25/2016

 

25-8-2016-EUR-H4.png

 

There’s a “Double Top” pattern, which has been formed under a resistance at 1.1381. However, the price faced a support by the 34 Moving Average afterwards, so there’s a local upward correction on the way. Considering a confirmation of the last “Double Top”, the market is likely going to continue falling down towards the next support at 1.1235 – 1.1222. If a pullback from this area happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another upward movement.

 

25-8-2016-EUR-H1.png

 

The price faced a support at 1.1253, which led to form a “V-Bottom” pattern, so the price is currently rising. Also, we’ve got a “Pennant” pattern here, so the price is likely going to reach a support at 1.1235 – 1.1222 during the day. At the same time, if we see a pullback from these levels, bulls will probably try to catch a resistance at 1.1282 – 1.1324.

 

More:

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10196

Link to comment
Share on other sites

GBP/USD: "Double Top" stood in the way of bulls

8/25/2016

 

25-8-2016-GBP-H4.png

 

The price found a resistance at 1.3247, which led to the current consolidation. Also, there’s a “Double Top” pattern. If it confirms, the market is likely going to get a support at 1.3119 in the short term. However, if a pullback from this level be on the table, bulls will probably try to achieve the nearest resistance at 1.3247 – 1.3302.

 

25-8-2016-GBP-H1.png

 

We’ve got a consolidation along a resistance at 1.3247. Also, there’s a possible “Double Top” pattern, which hasn’t been finished yet. Therefore, bears are likely going to get a support at 1.3183 – 1.3160 shortly. Nevertheless, if a pullback from this area arrives later on, there’ll be an opportunity to have an upward price movement in the direction of a resistance at 1.3271 – 1.3302.

 

More:

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10197

Link to comment
Share on other sites

EUR/USD: bearish impulse in wave iii going to start soon

8/25/2016

 

Image20160825102951001.png

 

We’ve got two pullbacks from 6/8 Murrey Math Level (P=200) in a row, which points to a possible ending of wave [y] of C. Moreover, there’s a downward impulse in wave i, so after a local correction, bears are likely going to deliver wave iii of (a). The nearest intraday target is 3/8 MM Level.

 

Image20160825102951002.png

 

As we can see on the one-hour chart, wave v of © was truncated. So, we’ve got a bearish impulse in wave i, which was formed yesterday. It’s likely that bulls are going to deliver wave ii during the day. If we see a pullback from 6/8 Murrey Math Level (P=200), there’ll be an opportunity to have another downward impulse.

 

More:

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10199

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Key option levels for Thursday, August 25th

8/25/2016

 

EUR/USD

 

EURUSD(22).png

 

 

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period

Neutral Bearish

Changes in the open interest + 64 984 ? + 47 692 ?

Closest resistance levels 1.1289; 1.1308; 1.1324; 1.1343

Closest support levels 1.1251; 1.1225; 1.1205; 1.1180

Trading recommendations

Baseline scenario Long EUR/USD above 1.1289, with the target points at 1.1308 and 1.1324

Alternative scenario Moving below 1.1251 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 1.1225 and 1.1205

 

GBP/USD

 

GBPUSD(21).png

 

 

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period

Bullish Bearish

Changes in the open interest + 359 ? + 1 014 ?

Closest resistance levels 1.3266; 1.3290; 1.3327; 1.3351

Closest support levels 1.3189; 1.3156; 1.3134; 1.3108

Trading recommendations

Baseline scenario Buy GBP/USD above 1.3266, with the target points at 1.3290 and 1.3327

Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3189 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 1.3156 and 1.3134

 

 

USD/JPY

 

USDJPY(21).png

 

 

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period

Bullish Neutral

Changes in the open interest + 3 643 ? + 900 ?

Closest resistance levels 100.63; 100.83(98?); 101.17; 101.41

Closest support levels 100.33; 100.13(03?); 99.71; 99.49

Trading recommendations

Baseline scenario Long USD/JPY above 100.63, with the target points at 100.83 and 101.17

Alternative scenario Moving below 100.33 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 100.13 and 99.71

 

 

USD/CAD

 

USDCAD(20).png

 

 

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period

Neutral Bullish

Changes in the open interest + 180 ? + 143 ?

Closest resistance levels 1.2963; 1.2985; 1.3017; 1.3062

Closest support levels 1.2908; 1.2890; 1.2860; 1.2821

Trading recommendations

Baseline scenario Buy USD/CAD above 1.2963, with the target points at 1.2985 and 1.3017

Alternative scenario Moving below 1.2908 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 1.2890 and 1.2860

 

More:

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10201

Link to comment
Share on other sites

EUR/USD: bulls going to test "Window" once again

8/25/2016

 

2508eurusdh4.png

 

There’s a correction inside the main bullish trend. We’ve got a “Hammer” in the 34 Moving Average, which has been confirmed. Therefore, the market is likely going to get a resistance on the upper side of the nearest “Window”. If we see a pullback from this level, there’ll be an opportunity to have an achievement of the 55 Moving Average. As we can see on the Daily chart, the price found a lodgement under the “Window”, which could act as a resistance once again. So, after a local correction bears will probably try to deliver a new low.

 

2508eurusdh1.png

 

We’ve got a bullish “Harami” and a “Three Methods” pattern at the last low. Under this circumstances, bulls are likely going to reach the nearest “Window’s” upper side.

 

More:

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10208

Link to comment
Share on other sites

USD/JPY: bulls and bears fighting inside the "Window"

8/25/2016

 

2508usdjpyH4.png

 

There’s a strong resistance by the 21 Moving Average, so we’ve got a “Shooting Star” on this line. However, a confirmation of this pattern is a quite weak, so the nearest “Window” is likely going to be tested once again. As we can see on the Daily chart, the price is consolidating under the closest resistance line, so bears will probably try to reach the lower “Window” in the short term.

 

2508usdjpyH1.png

 

We’ve got a “Harami” and a “Doji” on the 89 Moving Average, which both have been confirmed enough. At the same time, there’s a bullish “Harami” as well, so the market is likely going to test the local highs again.

 

More:

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10209

Link to comment
Share on other sites

EUR/USD ahead of Jackson Hole: Will Janet Yellen define us today the mid-term trend for US Dollar?

8/26/2016

 

Today at 14:00 GMT will be the main event of the week in financial markets, as the Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen will speak at the Jackson Hole Symposium and all traders will be looking for hints of further rate hike by the central bank before the end of the year, or in the other scenario, in September's meeting. However, some experts aren't expecting major information to be delivered by Yellen during this event, which is also an academic symposium and likely it will bring some kind of information that goes on that line.

 

The technical picture for EUR/USD at H1 chart ahead of that event is still calling for the upside, amid recent US dollar's strengthening. Currently, a bullish trend line from August 24th low can be seen on this timeframe and eventually it should act as dynamic support. EUR could rally towards the resistance zone of 1.1320, in case that Yellen didn't bring clear hints of further hikes on this year. In the hawkish scenario, a breakout below the support zone of 1.1272 can push the pair towards the 1.1209 level.

 

EURUSDH1(6).png

 

More:

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10210

Link to comment
Share on other sites

EUR/USD: euro met an inside bar

8/26/2016

 

On the daily EUR/USD chart the bulls managed to make the pair hold above support at 1.1269 and counterattacked. The pair formed an inside bar, which points at uncertainty. The break of yesterday's low at 1.124 will make the pair decline to 1.1175. Resistance is near 1.1345.

 

Screenshot_2016_08_26_07_43_03.png

 

On H1 convergence area of 1.1233-1.1244 became a big obstacle for the bears. If the bulls manage to bring the pair above 1.1290, the pair will fight to overcome the lower border of the bullish channel. On the contrary, another test of support will increase the risks of decline to 1.1169.

 

Screenshot_2016_08_26_07_43_21.png

 

More:

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10213

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Gold: bears want to leave the ledge

8/26/2016

 

On the daily chart of XAU/USD the bears managed to bring the pair below the lower border of the short-term uptrend and pull it to support at $1313 an ounce. Successful test of the ledge's lower border ("Spike and ledge" pattern based on 1-2-3) will allow the pair to slide towards $1280 and lower.

 

Screenshot_2016_08_26_07_43_43.png

 

On H1 after the pair reached target of the triangle and settled below $1345, so that the bears got control. Targets of senior and junior AB=CD patterns allowed to spot convergence area of $1312-1316. Its successful test will make the pair resume descent, recoil will allow the pair to rise towards $1332,5.

 

Screenshot_2016_08_26_07_43_59.png

 

More:

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10214

Link to comment
Share on other sites

EUR/USD: local upward movement going to move on

8/26/2016

 

26-8-2016-EUR-H4.png

 

Bulls faced a resistance on the 34 Moving Average, so the price is currently declining. Considering the last “Double Top” pattern, the market is likely going to get a support at 1.1235 – 1.1222 in the short term. If we see a pullback from this area, there’ll be an opportunity to have a correction towards a resistance at 1.1365 – 1.1381.

 

26-8-2016-EUR-H1.png

 

We’ve got a consolidation along the Moving Averages. It’s likely that the price is going to reach a resistance at 1.1282 – 1.1324 during the day. However, if a pullback from these levels happens, bears will probably try to catch the next support at 1.1244 – 1.1235.

 

More:

[uR:L=https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10215]https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10215[/url]

Link to comment
Share on other sites

GBP/USD: price faced support by local uptrend

8/26/2016

 

26-8-2016-GBP-H4.png

 

There’s a “Double Top” pattern, which has been confirmed, so the market achieved a support at 1.3160. Therefore, bears are likely going to reach the next support at 1.3119 soon. At the same time, if a pullback from this level be on the table, we should keep an eye on the closest resistance at 1.3271 – 1.3302 as a possible bullish intraday target.

 

26-8-2016-GBP-H1.png

 

The price faced a support by the local uptrend, which led to an achievement of the nearest resistance at 1.3214. So, bulls are likely going to reach the next resistance at 1.3247 shortly. However, if we see a pullback from here, there’ll be a chance to have another decline towards a support at 1.3183 – 1.3160.

 

More:

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10216

Link to comment
Share on other sites

EUR/USD: the Bulls are trying to return the positions

8/26/2016

 

Technical levels: support – 1.1270; resistance – 1.1330, 1.1360, 1.1450.

 

Trade recommendations:

 

1. Buy — 1.1300; SL — 1.1280; TP1 — 1.1360; TP2 – 1.1450.

 

Reason: a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, but the bullish Ichimoku Cloud and the prices breaking out the resistance of Kijun-sen.

 

01-eurusdh4(28).png

 

More:

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10217

Link to comment
Share on other sites

USD/JPY: under the Senkou Span A

8/26/2016

 

Technical levels: support – 100.00; resistance – 100.40.

 

Trade recommendations:

 

1. Sell — 100.40; SL — 100.60; TP1 — 99.00; TP2 — 98.50.

 

Reason: a bearish Ichimoku Cloud; Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen are horizontal; a strong consolidation under resistance of Senkou Span A.

 

04-usdjpyh4(16).png

 

More:

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10218

Link to comment
Share on other sites

EUR/USD: bears going to deliver wave iii

8/26/2016

 

Image20160826103238001.png

 

There’s a possible ended zigzag in wave © of [y], which led to form a downward impulse in wave i. Also, we’ve got a double pullback from 6/8 Murrey Math Level (P=200). Under this circumstances, bears are likely going to deliver wave iii of (a) shortly, so we should keep an eye on 3/8 MM Level as an intraday target.

 

Image20160826103238002.png

 

We’ve got a bearish impulse in wave i, which has been formed right after a diagonal triangle in wave v of ©. Also, there’s a probable zigzag in wave ii. So, if bears finds a lodgement under 6/8 Murrey Math Level (P=250), there’ll be an opportunity to have wave iii.

 

More:

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10219

Link to comment
Share on other sites

EUR/USD: bulls supported by "Hammer"

8/26/2016

 

2608eurusdh4.png

 

There’s a correction under the nearest “Window”. Also, we’ve got a “Hammer” on the 34 Moving Average, which has been confirmed. Therefore, the market is likely going to test the “Window” once again. If we see a pullback from its upper side, there’ll be an opportunity to have an achievement of the 55 Moving Average. As we can see on the Daily chart, here’s a “Harami” under the closest “Window”, so bulls will probably try to reach the nearest resistance.

 

2608eurusdh1.png

 

We’ve got an “Engulfing” and a “Shooting Star” at the local high. In this case, it’s likely to see a support by the lower side of the “Window”. If a pullback from this level happens, bulls are likely going to deliver a local upward price movement.

 

More:

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10220

Link to comment
Share on other sites

NZD/USD reached buy target 0.7300

8/26/2016

 

NZD/USD reached buy target 0.7300

Next buy target - 0.7400

NZD/USD continues to rise after the earlier breakout of the resistance level 0.7300, which was set as the buy target in our previous forecast for this currency pair. The breakout of the resistance level 0.7300 is likely to accelerate the active minor impulse wave (v), which belongs to the C-wave from the middle of July (which began when the pair reversed up from the support zone near the round support level 0.7000).

 

NZD/USD is expected to continue the upward movement in the direction of the next resistance level 0.7400 (coinciding with the resistance trendline of the wide daily up channel from last year).

 

NZDUSD_-_Primary_Analysis_-_Aug-26_1426_PM_(1_day).png

 

More:

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10223

Link to comment
Share on other sites

USD/JPY: unending consolidation

8/26/2016

 

2608usdjpyH4.png

 

We’ve got a “Shooting Star” and a “Tweezers” at the local high, but both patterns haven’t been confirmed yet. So, there’s an opportunity to see one more test of the nearest “Window”. If it acts as a support, bulls are likely going to reach the 34 Moving Average. As we can see on the Daily chart, here’s a consolidation under the nearest resistance level, but bears are still free to achieve the lower “Window” in the short term.

 

2608usdjpyH1.png

 

The price is moving up and down in a range of the Monday’s “Window”. We’ve got an “Engulfing” and a “Three Methods” patterns, so the market is likely going to reach the lower side of the range. However, if we see a pullback from this level, bulls will probably try to push the market a little bit higher.

 

More:https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10221

Link to comment
Share on other sites

GBP/AUD reversed from resistance zone

8/26/2016

 

GBP/AUD reversed from resistance zone

Next sell target - 1.7000

GBP/AUD recently reversed down from the resistance zone lying between the resistance level 1.7500, 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the previous minor impulse wave 3 and the lower trendline of the wide weekly down channel from last year (acting as resistance now after it was broken in July). This trendline earlier reversed waves 2 and (b), as can be seen from the daily GBP/AUD chart below.

 

GBP/AUD is expected to fall down further inside the active (b)-wave of the minor ABC correction 4 toward the next sell target 1.7000. Sell stop-loss can be placed above the aforementioned resistance level 1.7500.

 

GBPAUD_-_Primary_Analysis_-_Aug-26_1430_PM_(1_day).png

 

More:

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10222

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Key option levels for Monday, August 29th

8/29/2016

 

EUR/USD

 

EURUSD(23).png

 

 

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period

Neutral Bearish

Changes in the open interest + 39 305 ? - 29 614 ?

Closest resistance levels 1.1221; 1.1250; 1.1271; 1.1299

Closest support levels 1.1187; 1.1164/48; 1.1125; 1.1097

Trading recommendations

Baseline scenario Long EUR/USD above 1.1221, with the target points at 1.1250 and 1.1271

Alternative scenario Moving below 1.1187 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 1.1164 and 1.1125

 

 

GBP/USD

 

GBPUSD(22).png

 

 

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period

Neutral Bearish

Changes in the open interest + 1 062 ? + 943 ?

Closest resistance levels 1.3156; 1.3178; 1.3215; 1.3239

Closest support levels 1.3105; 1.3082; 1.3064; 1.3042

Trading recommendations

Baseline scenario Short GBP/USD below 1.3105, with target points at 1.3082 and 1.3064

Alternative scenario Moving above 1.3156 can be considered as a signal to buy the pair, with target at 1.3178 and 1.3215

 

USD/JPY

 

USDJPY(22).png

 

 

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period

Bullish Neutral

Changes in the open interest + 768 ? + 1 446 ?

Closest resistance levels 102.41; 102.62; 102.88; 103.19

Closest support levels 101.66; 101.37; 100.99; 100.73

Trading recommendations

Baseline scenario Buy USD/JPY above 102.41, with the target points at 102.62 and 102.88

Alternative scenario Moving below 101.66 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 101.37 and 100.99

 

 

USD/CAD

 

USDCAD(21).png

 

 

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period

Neutral Bullish

Changes in the open interest + 943 ? + 905 ?

Closest resistance levels 1.3033; 1.3051; 1.3086; 1.3134

Closest support levels 1.2974; 1.2948; 1.2912; 1.2860

Trading recommendations

Baseline scenario Long USD/CAD above 1.3033, with the target points at 1.3051 and 1.3086

Alternative scenario Moving below 1.2974 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 1.2948 and 1.2912

 

More:

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10228

Link to comment
Share on other sites

EUR/USD: bears celebrating trend breakdown

8/29/2016

 

29-8-2016-EUR-H4.png

 

We’ve got a “Triple Top” pattern, which led to the current bearish price movement. Also, the last uptrend has been broken. So, the price is likely going to reach a support at 1.1130 in the short term.

 

29-8-2016-EUR-H1.png

 

The pair faced a support at 1.1176, so we’ve got a local consolidation. In this case, bulls will probably try to achieve a resistance at 1.1235 – 1.1244 during the day. If a pullback from this area happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another bearish movement towards the next support at 1.1176 – 1.1152.

 

More:

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10229

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.




×
×
  • Create New...