TMABreakthrough

[juicyt]

Can someone with good back test knowledge look at these charts and tell me if there is anything missing from them to make potentially the best system you have ever seen?

 

Using the TMA bands (You will find them here http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=414566 ) on the current time frame and the next higher time frame, when the lower crosses the higher TF in the direction of the higher TF bands, price always breaks through like a crazy mother. (See pics)

So, my questions are:

 

1. Back testing is new to me, so am I testing this right? Are my pictures and experience with the TMA indicators whilst back testing accurate?

2. If yes, then is it possible for us to make an EA or Indicator to alert us when the conditions present themselves?

 

http://i44.tinypic.com/51f04i.png

 

http://i41.tinypic.com/2ekm0ow.png

 

and again

 

http://i42.tinypic.com/2j4yaf7.png

 

http://i44.tinypic.com/2lxedj8.png

 

http://i42.tinypic.com/2yngdbl.png

 

JT

[fxeasy5]

juicyt,

I have problems to understand what you are trying to explain.

 

1. The link to FF brings me to a thread which has 252 pages.

Where is the TMA indicator you use and what is the name of it ?

Maybe I can find it with the search function of FF if you reveal the name or maybe you can post it for us ?

 

2. On your first 2 screenshots, I see the yellow lower band cross the green band downwards, then cross upwards. There the price goes up.

This looks to be the condition for a signal.

The yellow band goes outside of the higher timeframe band, then comes back inside and this is the trigger to go long ? (on the first 2 screenshots)

You wrote:

Using the TMA bands on the current time frame and the next higher time frame, when the lower crosses the higher TF in the direction of the higher TF bands, price always breaks through like a crazy mother.

 

But on the next few screenshots, the yellow band never crosses the green or red band but is contained within them.

I cannot see a cross of the yellow band through a higher-timeframe-band anywhere on the screenshots.

 

 

Do you mind clarifying what you take as a signal for a "break through like a crazy mother" ?

[juicyt]

Hi fx,

 

If you are looking at it from a tablet or something then for some reason the picture doesn't show. I have found I need to look at it from my computer to see the whole picture.

Basically though, lower time frame band crosses the higher time frame TMA band. That is the setup.

 

For a long setup, the higher time frame band must be pointing up and the lower time frame band must pull back and cross the lower band. Then you can just use a previous high break to enter.

The TMA is just the TMA indicator from the FF post. http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=1158745 that should help.

 

let me know if that makes sense or not.

 

jt

[fxeasy5]

Thanks, juicyt.

I couldn´t see the setups because I have a widescreen thing and I first have to zoom out to see the complete screenshot.

The problem with the setup is the TMA indicator which you are using.

It is a big repainter and it creates an illusion about the past.

 

On the historical chart you see these wonderful setups but they do not exist in real trading with that useless TMA indicator.

The only way to see how the TMA bands looked in real trading is to use the TMA true indicator, it doesn´t repaint.

 

You can find it in FF in a thread called "TMA Reality Tour" in post# 7 .

[juicyt]

I would usually agree with you however when I run it through the tester it works regardless of the repaint issue (plus that is how I got my pictures at the setup stage) . Run it through a test and let me know what you find.

 

Jt

Edited July 8, 2013 by juicyt

[fxeasy5]

I ran it through the tester on M5 (higher TMA for M15) and yes, you are correct, the repainting does not matter.

Sometimes both of the lower bands go outside the higher TMA bands, and even if they don´t , price would take out the SL at the last swing, so we either need

a second entry in the direction of the first, or a wider SL to avoid getting stopped out,

but often the first cross of the lower band is good, from there we need a reversal pattern and enter if it is confirmed and the trade will be good.

 

What do you think ?

Which timeframes did you use on your screenshots ?

 

Entering when the band comes back into the higher TMA channel is much too late, I would focus on the first cross from inside the higher TMA bands outside of them and then look for an entry.

[gringoh]

Hello Guys,

 

The original method was developed by Favorite, FXeasy, you can find the final summary in FF in posts 3365 and 3366. (interesting to read).

 

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=6642987#post6642987

 

Stop me if I am wrong juicyt, you customized it to you to fit the way you trade, on which TF are trading it?

 

I didn’t have time to test this strategy those past month but I have followed the thread almost since the beginning and some traders are doing a huge amount of pips scalping EJ on 1 minute timeframe.

 

The repainting issue of TMA bands doesn’t appear to be an issue and the pattern described by Favorite as “TMA M1 BEYOND THE ICHIMOKU CLOUD” looks promising.

 

Gringoh

[juicyt]

Hi fx,

 

Once conditions are met, I would trail with a pending order 1 pip past the most recent lower high (for a long trade) as this seems to work. Or use a stop and reverse indicator if you choose and enter once the stop and reverse tells you to if conditions are met. I have looked at combinations of 1,5 5,15 60,240 time frames and all seems just as good.

 

Hi gringoh, I just couldn't get the methods posted by favourite or others on the FF thread to work for me. This seems like a simpler yet extremely profitable strategy. I would guess less trades, but almost no discretion. 100% winning from the maybe 1 hundred or 2 hundred trades I have put through the tester too which is reassuring.

 

I still think an indicator or EA could be made to alert when the conditions are met for a trade.

 

Now I just gotta watch the charts in real time to see how they unfold. I have the 8 majors up now so I guess we will see how it all unfolds at some point hopefully soon.

[fxeasy5]

Gringoh, same here.

The Babon system of Favorite looks nice on historical charts, but in live trading I got more losers than winners. Some lucky guys somehow know how to see into the future and to perceive the winning trades and not to enter the losing setups.

I am not that lucky, so I stopped banging my head to the wall with Babon system.

[juicyt]

Yeah, I wasn't going to bring up the "screen shot of trades at setup" topic, but, I personally never had any issues with taking a screen shot of my trades as they setup. Ctrl + PrtScr seems to take all of 1 second. That's why I like what I see here.. at this stage or until proven otherwise.

 

there is a few setting up right now, GJ is looking best but we will see how it all lines up soon.

 

jt

 

ok so that trade was scratched as the 5min TMA was not pointing up once the entry candle had presented itself. As indicated by the pic, my entry would have been once price closed past the previous lower high.

 

http://i39.tinypic.com/n6vzi8.png

Edited July 8, 2013 by juicyt

[gringoh]

Thanks guys,

 

Juicy, do you mind adding a vertical on an entry on one of your future trade, I just want to make sure I got it.

 

Favorite asked on Steeve forum to have a dashboard coded to trade Babon. Finally a guy has created something which can be found in this post:

 

http://www.stevehopwoodforex.com/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=27&t=2059&hilit=babbon

 

As I wanted to have a view to the code I asked somebody to decompile the indi to have a look at it:

 

http://www.forexisbiz.com/showthread.php/5784-Here-I-will-decompile-your-EX4-file?p=44052#post44052

 

Maybe those indis can help you?

 

I am not a great coder, but if nobody can't help you I will try to help you in a week time.

 

I am really curious about all this TMA thing, I think there is some potential.

 

Gringoh

Edited July 8, 2013 by gringoh

[juicyt]

I hope this helps. 2 types of entry. 1 is a break/close past the most recent lower high. The other is the stop/reverse indicator.

 

http://i40.tinypic.com/v64y6e.png

 

http://i39.tinypic.com/o89w82.png

 

http://i40.tinypic.com/5fp6p3.png

[gringoh]

Thanks Juicy got it, I will demo this by the end of the week.

[dannydon786]

TMA is a useless indicator

[juicyt]

Well this is what I am trying to decide upon dannydon. I seem to be able to find signals when on strategy tester (could be 1 to 6 setups per day), however in live trading for about 6hrs last night and 3hrs tonight, I can't find an entry. This is reason for this thread, to decide if TMA is any good or full of sh@t once and for all.

 

jt

 

Now that I write that, EG is setting up perfectly on the 5/15 charts. Really good angle on the 15TMA so we will see how it pans out.

Edited July 9, 2013 by juicyt

[juicyt]

ALRIGHTY THEN.... So being in Australia, it limits my times available to trade and I guess as such haven't seen any setups. SOOOOO I recorded my charts with the screen recorder posted here for about an hour or so when I thought the moves would take place and when looking at the screen recording watched 4 trades setup perfectly and win! So, the good news is that the setups do actually happen in live conditions and do seem to be a valid system to further explore.

 

The next step really would be if we could get a dashboard to monitor the setups on multiple time frames and alert us once the conditions are met. Any takers? Or should I explore this by my lonesome....

[juicyt]

Thanks Dannydon, but to be honest I simply can't help myself. And besides, I learn things the hard way because I don't like to be told what I can or can't do (not good when you have completed a few trades). If you could be specific on what was researched and why it was no good, then that might help me.

 

For example, lets say I take the 5TMA and 15TMA on a 5min chart and also use the Stop and Reverse Indicator set with a multiplier of 2.0 and ATR 9. Every time the 5TMA closes past the outer band of the 15TMA, I wait for the stop and reverse to get me into the trade going back the other way and take profit once price hits the other side of the 15TMA (Stop would be 5 pips past the swing high/low). So when I test this, I get outrageous results and it looks almost too good to be true. So my question is, what is wrong with it? What is the backtest missing?

[newbie111]

Thanks Dannydon, but to be honest I simply can't help myself. And besides, I learn things the hard way because I don't like to be told what I can or can't do (not good when you have completed a few trades). If you could be specific on what was researched and why it was no good, then that might help me.

 

For example, lets say I take the 5TMA and 15TMA on a 5min chart and also use the Stop and Reverse Indicator set with a multiplier of 2.0 and ATR 9. Every time the 5TMA closes past the outer band of the 15TMA, I wait for the stop and reverse to get me into the trade going back the other way and take profit once price hits the other side of the 15TMA (Stop would be 5 pips past the swing high/low). So when I test this, I get outrageous results and it looks almost too good to be true. So my question is, what is wrong with it? What is the backtest missing?

 

Sounds good bro. Would you mind sharing your setup (indis+template) here?

Edited July 11, 2013 by newbie111

[juicyt]

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=437038 Go here newbie for the indicators. I couldn't post template because I couldn't find it but it is easy to setup. Just make sure the stop-reverse you change to 2x multiplier not 3x as it automatically is set to.

 

jt

[bamik]

Please create an indicator of the above conditions,As Mr juicyt said.

For example, lets say I take the 5TMA and 15TMA on a 5min chart and also use the Stop and Reverse Indicator set with a multiplier of 2.0 and ATR 9. Every time the 5TMA closes past the outer band of the 15TMA, I wait for the stop and reverse to get me into the trade

 

I think this is a better that indicator be in the histogram .

 

For example,if we have the sell signal indicator color red histogram.

 

Buy signal is generated when the color is blue.

 

I think it's would be best indicator for realize trend.

 

Best Regards,

 

Bamik

[Holo Benkai]

You can't backtest the TMA with strategy tester if you choose a different timeframe. Strategy tester is almost useless you will find when testing a lot of indicators. In this case the higher timeframe TMA "knows" what position it will "eventually be in" so you don't see the constant repainting as you will do live.

 

You will see what I mean eventually

[⭐ yakka]

Holo Benkai,

 

yes you are correct, when using the strategy tester with some indicators that repaint ,they "cheat" by looking ahead at the future data which results in a very misleading display.

 

Use the TMA true indicator which plots without repainting issues.

 

yakka

 

hey juicyt are you still trading this one?

Edited July 23, 2013 by yakka

[juicyt]

You can't backtest the TMA with strategy tester if you choose a different timeframe. Strategy tester is almost useless you will find when testing a lot of indicators. In this case the higher timeframe TMA "knows" what position it will "eventually be in" so you don't see the constant repainting as you will do live.

 

You will see what I mean eventually

 

Hi Holo,

 

This is the kind of thing I am trying to figure out. The thing is, I have screen recorded many days of charts and gone back over them and the trades still appear and work out. So this is why I am still working on this. What am I missing? If anything...

 

jt

[⭐ yakka]

Juicyt,

 

There should be no problems if you are seeing the signals in real time.

 

You just cant backtest with them.

 

If it is working for you in real time then you might be onto a winner.

 

yakka

[kuvala]

thanks for posting this.