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Elliott Wave Forecast!


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Elliott Wave GOLD: Weakness Could Extend To 1530

 

GOLD moved lower as expected, but because of a very sharp and aggressive sell-off we reworked the wave count. We are now tracking a three wave A)-B)-C) Elliott wave pattern from 1795 swing with wave C) underway, which appears incomplete as we need five waves down from 1696. As such, Elliott traders must be aware of more weakness in this week as current recovery could be a black wave 4 that will look for a tip around 1595-1605. Market remains in bearish mode as long as 1651 resistance is not breached. Under this bearish scenario prices could hit 1525/30 level where red wave C) equals to wave A) measured from wave B) high.

http://charts.stocktwits.net/production/original_12228477.gif

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USDCAD Could Make A Pull-back from 1.0280/1.0310 Within Extended Uptrend

 

Larger trend for USDCAD is up, I look higher after a pull-back while 1.0087 invalidation level is not breached.

http://charts.stocktwits.net/production/original_12253528.gif

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USD -Index: Testing 61.8% Fibo Of July 2012-September 2012 Move

 

Current sharp leg up could easily be wave C) of a flat correction in wave (B) which is unfolding already since September 2012. In fact, price is approaching to some very interesting resistance zone around 81.70-82.00 (61.8% Fibo) where bulls could slow down.

http://charts.stocktwits.net/production/original_12280643.gif

on a weekly chart below we are also observing a huge head and shoulders pattern while 84.00 level is not breached.

http://charts.stocktwits.net/production/original_12280650.gif

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Elliott Wave Analysis : AUDUSD Corrective Reversal Could Reach 1.0360/80 Swing

 

Elliott Wave Analysis suggests that current rally on AUDUSD is probably part of incomplete minimum three-wave rally that could reach 1.0360/80 swing zone in the next 2-4 trading days.

On a daily chart there is morning star formation in progress that also supports the idea for near-term bullish waves, but need to see today’s close around current levels or higher.

http://charts.stocktwits.net/production/original_12309750.gif

Morning star in progress?

http://charts.stocktwits.net/production/original_12309752.gif

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Elliott Wave Analysis: EURUSD, Bearish But Overlapping

 

Despite strong bearish momentum decline from 1.3710 still can be corrective move, because each time when there was a bounce the market also made an overlap with former swing low.

 

http://charts.stocktwits.net/production/original_12337434.gif

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EURUSD Broke 2012 Support Line; Can This Be Start of a Major Sell-off?!

 

Expecting a three wave bounce back to 1.3300 in March, before downtrend extends.

EURUSD daily- line chart

http://charts.stocktwits.net/production/original_12388255.gif

EURUSD monthly

http://charts.stocktwits.net/production/original_12388256.gif

The overlay chart below which shows that most of other correlated markets turned lower, but not S&P which is still bullish but alone. This could be a sign and S&P is approaching to its top. Market Correlations

http://charts.stocktwits.net/production/original_12388257.gif

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USDCHF: Minor Pull-back Within Uptrend

 

USDCHF accelerated higher at the end of the last week slightly through the upper channel resistance line which is a bullish signal for the pair. Observing a new wave count with possible impulsive rally underway to 0.9500 area while 0.9335 is not breached.

 

http://charts.stocktwits.net/production/original_12410048.gif

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AUDUSD: Reversal Pattern Is Pointing Towards 1.0375

 

As per Elliott Wave Analysis, sharp impulsive reversal higher in this week suggests that AUDUSD found a temporary low and completed an ending diagonal in wave 5 with a throw-over formation. Throw-over occurs when volume is high in the fifth wave that approaches its lower trendline of the pattern, and extends slightly beneath it before reversal occurs. As such, the wave count is now pointing higher for a minimum three waves retracement back to former black wave four levels; 1.0375.

Pair also tested and reverse lower from blue wave (iv) resistance yesterday that caused a current a pull-back in wave B that will ideally look for a support around 1.0200 area. Expect a wave C rise from those levels, while pair trades above 1.0115 invalidation level.

 

http://charts.stocktwits.net/production/original_12432291.gif

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USDCAD: Impulsive Trend Could Resume From 1.0200

 

USDCAD is trading nicely higher for the past few weeks, which was expected after wave B) pull-back down to 0.9800 support at the end of 2012. As per Elliott Wave Analysis, after completed correction the market will make an impulsive price action, in wave C); five wave rally in wave C), which is still incomplete. For now USDCAD has only three waves up to 1.0340 so more gains to come after current wave 4 pull-back that could test 1.0200 level next week, before uptrend resumes. Critical level is at 1.0100. As per Elliott Wave Rule, wave four must not make an overlap with wave one.

http://www.ew-forecast.com/content/fck/usdcad720_2.gif

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AUDUSD: Reversal Pattern Is Pointing Towards 1.0375

 

Elliott Wave Pattern suggests AUDUSD is pointing toward 1.0375 with impulsive rally

http://charts.stocktwits.net/production/original_12498808.gif

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German DAX, uptrend is expected to resume.

 

As per Elliott Wave Analysis German DAX appears to be in fourth wave; uptrend is expected to resume.

http://charts.stocktwits.net/production/original_12518618.gif

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USDJPY Now Underway To 98.00-Elliott Wave

 

Elliott Wave Analysis indicates that USDJPY is trying to stay with a larger uptrend now after recent reversal down to 95.50 support which appears to be wave iv).

http://charts.stocktwits.net/production/original_12541866.gif

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UPDATE #2: GBPUSD Making a Three Wave Rally

 

GBPUSD is in sharp uptrend for the past two days, which was expected from a Elliott Wave Analysis after five waves down in red wave 5) of (3) followed by a broken trend-line. Well, current rally has an impulsive structure which means that leg is part of a larger recovery which will probably prove corrective as we are tracking a blue wave (4) pull-back.

http://charts.stocktwits.net/production/original_12565485.gif

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USDJPY : Rise Above 95.45 Puts Pair Back In Bullish Mode

 

Despite a big gap down on USDJPY pair remains in bullish mode as declien is actually still in three waves which we think it's wave (iv).

http://charts.stocktwits.net/production/original_12595930.gif

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USDCHF Is Looking Bearish Towards 0.9300 Against 0.9566

 

USDCHF reversed sharply lower in the past week from 0.9566 peak and also closed on a daily and weekly basis beneath 0.9430 swing.

http://charts.stocktwits.net/production/original_12616258.gif

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AUDUSD Is Sideways But Still Bullish Within Larger Trend

 

Pair has reached 1.0375/1.0400 zone last week that we have been focusing on for some time with our clients, but based on the latest wave structure we could see even higher levels on this pair

http://charts.stocktwits.net/production/original_12638460.gif

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S&P 500 Remains Bullish After A Corrective Retracement To 1537

 

S&P500 cash market gapped lower in this week, exactly after prices tested 1560-1570 resistance area for wave (iii) as highlighted several times to our members last week

http://charts.stocktwits.net/production/original_12660752.gif

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EURUSD Could Find a Low When S&P Completes a Downward Correction

 

Markets are back in the range and trading sideways now after a reversal lower yesterday on US stocks. The S&P500 cash market moved close to 1538 support which of-course also pulled down the others as well, such as DAX and even NIKKEI futures. Meanwhile, we still have unresolved situation on EURUSD, where both counts from yesterday are still valid. 1.2880 remains key level for a push down to 1.2810. But as already noted few times this week; we think that sooner or later EUR will recover.

 

EURUSD

http://charts.stocktwits.net/production/original_12681731.gif

 

The S&P futures moved down to 1534 which now could be trading in wave C of an incomplete corrective retracement from 1558 high. If we get a bounce from 1526 support on S&P then EURUSD should find the bid as well because the correlation is tight on the intra-day basis, as shown on the overlay chart below.

 

S&P Futures count

http://charts.stocktwits.net/production/original_12702563.gif

 

S&P vs EURUSD

http://charts.stocktwits.net/production/original_12702578.gif

 

Generally speaking, we think that risk-on will resume, but probably next week once S&P bottoms, when also some new opportunities for USD shorts could occur.

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EURUSD Could Fall Much Lower In 2013

 

Sharp and extended fall through 2012 support line with a monthly price close beneath it suggest that EUR will extend much deeper in 2013.

http://charts.stocktwits.net/production/original_12711198.gif

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Reversal Patterns on EURUSD - New Weakness to Come?

 

Pattern is bearish on the EURUSD which could fall beneath 1.2750 in this week. Resistance is at 1.2870-1.2940.

EURUSD 1h

http://www.ew-forecast.com/content/fck/eurusd738_4(1).gif

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EURUSD Could Hit 1.2700-Elliott Wave

 

EURUSD remains in bearish mode after only three wave rally from 1.2750 low that was just another temporary pause within ongoing bearish sequence.

EURUSD 4h:

http://www.ew-forecast.com/content/fck/eurusd739_3(1).gif

 

What is edning diagonal?

An ending diagonal is a special type of pattern that occurs at times when the preceding move has gone too far too fast, as Elliott put it

Ending diagonal in a bull market:

http://www.ew-forecast.com/content/fck/ending%20diagonal(2).gif

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USDJPY: Broken Channel Puts Pair Back In Bullish Mode

 

USDJPY broke sharply higher which was expected from a technical point of view. Price accelerated strongly after break out of the corrective channel (circled zone).

http://www.ew-forecast.com/content/fck/1228usdjpy741_3.gif

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