Daily Forex Analysis from FXCC

alayoua · November 11, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Nov 11 2013

China's Plenum meeting could have a profound impact for global markets

Monday sees several bank holidays that will affect the volume of trading activity during the various trading sessions. France, Canada and the USA have bank holidays. The German Bundesbank president Weidmann will hold court with a conference on Monday. Whilst the German central bank is subservient and defers to the ECB, on matters such as quantitative easing and rate setting, investors and analysts will look for 'code' in Weidmann's speech concerning the direction the singular German economy will be headed for and directed towards over coming months. Towards the end of the trading day we'll receive the consumer confidence publication from Australia's National Bank. The previous month's reading came in at 12, a print close to this figure is expected. Sterling posted its first weekly advance in three versus the dollar as reports showed British services growth unexpectedly accelerated in October to the fastest pace in 16 years. U.K. government bonds declined for a second week as the Bank of England kept its key interest rate at a record low, whilst maintaining its bond-buying stimulus target. The pound climbed versus the euro for a second week, rising the most since April, after the European Central Bank unexpectedly lowered its benchmark interest rate, boosting demand for the U.K. currency. Benchmark 10-year yields reached the highest level in seven weeks last week after payrolls grew by 204,000 in October versus the 120,000 median forecast. U.S. debt rallied after the European Central Bank cut its benchmark interest rate to a record to address prolonged price weakness. The USA Treasury will auction $70 billion of notes and bonds this week. Treasuries fell the most in two months as reports showed the economy expanded in the third quarter beyond projections, boosting speculation the Federal Reserve is moving closer to 'tapering' its $85 billion of monthly bond-buying.

http://blog.fxcc.com/market-analysis

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :

2013-11-11 09:00 GMT | IT Industrial Output s.a. (MoM) (Sep)

2013-11-11 17:00 GMT | DE German Buba President Weidmann speech

2013-11-11 23:30 GMT | AU Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (Nov)

2013-11-11 23:50 GMT | JP Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) (Sep)

FOREX NEWS :

2013-11-11 04:55 GMT | EUR/JPY loses momentum in late Asian trading session

2013-11-11 04:55 GMT | GBP/USD, another 1.5900 retest on deck - 2ndSkies

2013-11-11 04:36 GMT | EUR/USD should see sell on strength circa 1.3375 - JPMorgan

2013-11-11 04:19 GMT | AUD/USD sideways after solid Australian home data

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EURUSD :

HIGH 1.33671 LOW 1.33448 BID 1.33657 ASK 1.33659 CHANGE -0.01% TIME 08 : 29:13

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Sideway

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: While price is quoted below the moving averages our medium-term technical outlook would be negative. Though, appreciation above the resistance at 1.3438 (R1) might enable upwards penetration towards to next targets at 1.3492 (R2) and 1.3543 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the downside bearish pressure might push the price below the support at 1.3317 (S1). Further downside extension would open road towards to next target at 1.3262 (S2) and any further losses would then be limited to 1.3209 (S3) mark.

Resistance Levels: 1.3438, 1.3492, 1.3543

Support Levels: 1.3317, 1.3262, 1.3209

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GBPUSD :

HIGH 1.60216 LOW 1.59978 BID 1.60182 ASK 1.60187 CHANGE 0.01% TIME 08 : 29:13

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low

Upwards scenario: GBPUSD commenced consolidation pattern, however, price strengthening above the next resistive structure at 1.6058 (R1) might activate short-term bullish pressure and expose our intraday targets at 1.6085 (R2) and 1.6112 (R3). Downwards scenario: As long as price stays below the 20 SMA our technical outlook would be negative. Extension lower the next support level at 1.5993 (S1) is being able to drive market price towards to our next targets at 1.5968 (S2) and 1.5942 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.6058, 1.6085, 1.6112

Support Levels: 1.5993, 1.5968, 1.5942

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USDJPY :

HIGH 99.225 LOW 98.94 BID 98.953 ASK 98.955 CHANGE -0.09% TIME 08 : 29:14

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low

Upwards scenario: After the strong appreciation on Friday we expect to see some consolidation ahead. Though clearance of next resistance level at 99.23 (R1) might enable bullish pressure and open route towards to our next targets at 99.41 (R2) and 99.60 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, recovery phase might commence below the important support level at 98.85 (S1). Break here is required to validate our targets at 98.65 (S2) and 98.47 (S3) later on today.

Resistance Levels: 99.23, 99.41, 99.60

Support Levels: 98.85, 98.65, 98.47

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

alayoua · November 12, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Nov 12 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Nov 12 2013

USA small business optimism loses ground in October.

In the overnight early morning trading session we'll receive the publication of the Australian NAB business confidence report. Japan will release its consumer confidence index, predicted to come in at 46.3. UK inflation figures are published in the London session, expected to come in at 2.5% for CPI and 3% for RPI. The USA small business index is published in the afternoon session expected in at 93.5, as is the RBNZ financial stability report for New Zealand. It provides insights into the bank's view of inflation, growth, and other economic conditions that will affect interest rates in the future. The RBNZ governor Wheeler will then hold court shortly after the financial stability report to discuss the current state of the nation's finances. The NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism in the USA has lost 2.3 points to 91.6. Two components, the outlook for business conditions and the outlook for real sales gains, accounted for 52 percent of the Index decline. A weaker outlook for business produced dissatisfaction with inventory stocks, and fewer plans to create new jobs. The average value of the Index since the recovery started is 91. Looking towards tomorrow's open the DJIA equity index future is up 0.18%, SPX up 0.09% and the NASDAQ future is currently at the time of writing down 0.15%. The DAX future is up 0.48%, STOXX up 0.69% and CAC up 0.81% with UK FTSE up 0.43%. The DJIA closed up 0.14%, the SPX up 0.07% and the NASDAQ up 0.01%. Looking at Europe's bourses the STOXX index closed up 0.59%, CAC up 0.70%, DAX up 0.33%, and the UK FTSE up 0.30%.

http://blog.fxcc.com/market-analysis

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :

2013-11-12 09:30 GMT | UK Core Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Oct)

2013-11-12 13:30 GMT | US Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Sep)

2013-11-12 20:00 GMT | RBNZ Financial Stability Report

2013-11-12 23:50 GMT | JP Machinery Orders (YoY) (Sep)

FOREX NEWS :

2013-11-12 07:16 GMT | EUR/USD dips to lows on German data

2013-11-12 06:56 GMT | GBP/USD deflates to session lows

2013-11-12 05:28 GMT | EUR/GBP on the soggy side

2013-11-12 05:07 GMT | GBP/AUD soars on solid UK home data, struggling Aussie

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EURUSD

HIGH 1.34137 LOW 1.33798 BID 1.33938 ASK 1.33941 CHANGE -0.09% TIME 09 : 51:38

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Neutral

TREND CONDITION : Sideway

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Possibility of further price progress is seen above the next resistance level at 1.3438 (R1). Breakthrough here would suggest interim target at 1.3485 (R2) and then mark at 1.3532 (R3) acts as next attractive point. Downwards scenario: Risk of market weakening is seen below the support level at 1.3368 (S1). Loss here is required to enable our supportive barrier at 1.3317 (S2) en route towards to final target for today at 1.3270 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3438, 1.3485, 1.3532

Support Levels: 1.3368, 1.3317, 1.3270

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GBPUSD :

HIGH 1.59922 LOW 1.59513 BID 1.59573 ASK 1.59577 CHANGE -0.2% TIME 09 : 51:38

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Measures of resistance might be activating if the pair approaches 1.5978 (R1) price level. Break here would suggest next interim target at 1.6005 (R2) and If the price keeps its momentum we expect an exposure of 1.6031 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, progress below the initial support level at 1.5932 (S1) might initiate bearish pressure and expose our intraday targets at 1.5907 (S2) and 1.5880 (S3) later on today.

Resistance Levels: 1.5978, 1.6005, 1.6031

Support Levels: 1.5932, 1.5907, 1.5880

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USDJPY :

HIGH 99.731 LOW 99.104 BID 99.688 ASK 99.692 CHANGE 0.53% TIME 09 : 51:39

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Up trend

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Further price appreciation needs to clear the barrier at 99.86 (R1) to enable our interim target at 100.06 (R2) and then any further gains would be limited to last resistance at 100.25 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the downside, USDJPY might encounter supportive measures at 99.30 (S1). Break here would open the way for a test of our next targets at 99.10 (S2) and 98.89 (S3) later on today.

Resistance Levels: 99.86, 100.06, 100.25

Support Levels: 99.30, 99.10, 98.89

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

alayoua · November 14, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Nov 14 2013

Fed chairperson delegate Janet Yellen states USA far from being able to taper asset purchase programme.

French and German preliminary GDP figures are published on Thursday, Germany's is expected in at 0.3% with France's at 0.1%. Italy's is expected in at -0.3%. Europe's flash GDP number is expected in at 0.2%. The ECB will publish its monthly bulletin on Thursday, whilst the UK's retail sales are expected to be flat, but could register a fall if consumers keep their hands in their pockets with Xmas being so close. Canada's trade balance is expected in at $1.2 bn for the month, whilst the USA trade balance for the month is expected in at -$34 billion, a near mirror opposite of Germany's positive €34 billion figure. Unemployment claims in the USA for the week are predicted in at 331K. The weekly oil and gas storage inventory data is published with oil expected in at a low print of 0.7. The DJIA closed up 0.45% on Wednesday, the SPX up 0.81% and the NASDAQ up 1.16%. European markets were mainly in the red; STOXX down 0.45%, CAC down 0.56%, DAX down 0.24% and UK FTSE down a substantial 1.44% after a negative reaction to the UK's BoE inflation report. Looking towards the market opening on Thursday November 14th the DJIA future is up 0.44%, SPX up 0.82% and the NASDAQ up 1.1%. The STOXX index is down 0.53%, DAX doe 0.36% and CAC down 0.55%. NYMEX WTI oil is up 0.60% at $93.60 per barrel, NYMEX nat gas is down 1.58% $3.56 per therm, COMEX gold is up 0.87% at $1282 per ounce, COMEX silver down 0.78% at $20.62 per ounce.

http://blog.fxcc.com/market-analysis

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :

2013-11-14 09:00 GMT | EMU ECB Monthly Report

2013-11-14 09:30 GMT | UK Retail Sales (YoY) (Oct)

2013-11-14 10:00 GMT | EMU Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) (Q3)

2013-11-14 15:00 GMT | FOMC Member Yellen Speech

FOREX NEWS :

2013-11-14 06:38 GMT | GBP/USD had “abc” correction in first few hours of Asian session; now working higher

2013-11-14 05:48 GMT | BoE's Fisher: we won't raise rates any time soon

2013-11-14 05:06 GMT | Nikkei surges above 2% in sympathy with Wall Street

2013-11-14 05:00 GMT | USD/CHF continues expected pullback – with extra “oomph” from Fed’s dovish comments

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EURUSD

HIGH 1.34976 LOW 1.34631 BID 1.34675 ASK 1.34678 CHANGE -0.13% TIME 08 : 44:13

OUTLOOK SUMMARY Up

TREND CONDITION Upward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY High

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Instrument gained momentum on the upside recently, turning short-term bias to the positive side. Next resistive structure on the way lies at 1.3495 (R1), break here would suggest next intraday targets at 1.3519 (R2) and 1.3542 (R3). Downwards scenario: Possible downside extension is limited now to the support level at 1.3456 (S1). Break here is required to open a route towards to next target at 1.3433 (S2) and then any further easing would be targeting final support at 1.3410 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3495, 1.3519, 1.3542

Support Levels: 1.3456, 1.3433, 1.3410

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GBPUSD :

HIGH 1.60651 LOW 1.60272 BID 1.60390 ASK 1.60396 CHANGE -0.1% TIME 08 : 44:15

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: GBPUSD is approaching our next resistive measure at 1.6079 (R1). Break here is required to initiate upside pressure towards to next target at 1.6109 (R2) and then resistance at 1.6139 (R3) acts as last attractive point for today. Downwards scenario: Possible price depreciation is limited to support level at 1.6010 (S1). Break here is required to enable possible retracement action towards to our next targets at 1.5980 (S2) and 1.5949 (S3) in potential.

Resistance Levels: 1.6079, 1.6109, 1.6139

Support Levels: 1.6010, 1.5980, 1.5949

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USDJPY :

HIGH 99.727 LOW 99.135 BID 99.612 ASK 99.616 CHANGE 0.39% TIME 08 : 44:16

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Neutral

Upwards scenario: We see potential of further instrument appreciation in near term perspective. Clearance of our next resistive structure at 99.79 (R1) would open way towards to next target at 100.00 (R2) and any further rise would then be targeting 100.21 (R3). Downwards scenario: Possible retracement formation is limited now to support level at 99.42 (S1). If the price manages to surpass it, we would suggest next intraday targets at 99.22 (S2) and 99.01 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 99.79, 100.00, 100.21

Support Levels: 99.42, 99.22, 99.01

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

alayoua · November 19, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Nov 19 2013

Dow Jones Index breaks 16000 as SPX and NASDAQ sell off at key levels, as Troika talks will resume in Athens this week

Tuesday sees the publication of the ZEW German sentiment index and the ZEW Europe sentiment index. Both indices are expected to rise, Germany's up to 54.6 and Europe's up to 63.1. Two more FOMC members are due to speak, Dudley and Evans, whilst treasury secretary Lew is due to speak, the man who 'knocked heads' together over the debt impasse. Later in the evening Ben Bernanke holds court. New Zealand's PPI is published with the expectation of a number similar to the 0.6% of the previous month. Japan's trade balance is expected in at -0.88 trillion, with the all industries activity expected in at 0.5% up 0.2%. Greece's finance minister Yannis Stournaras will hold another session of talks with the country's various lenders this week. Relations between the Athens government and officials from the IMF/EC and ECB are tense, with little in the way of an agreement over how to address the fiscal gap in Greece's 2014 financial projections. That shortfall is estimated at €1.5bn and there's no roadmap in place as to how it will be fixed, although bond holders taking another haircut seems the most obvious solution. Looking towards equity index futures the DJIA is up 0.16%, SPX down 0.27%. European equity indices are up; STOXX up 0.88%, DAX up 0.65%, CAC up 0.64%, fits equity index future up 0.49%. On Monday NYMEX WTI oil closed the day down 0.88% at $93.01 per barrel, NYMEX nat gas down 1.17% at $3.62 per therm. COMEX gold closed the day down 0.95% at $1275.20 per ounce, silver on COMEX down 1.79% at $20.36 per ounce.

http://blog.fxcc.com/market-analysis

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :

2013-11-19 10:00 GMT | DE ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment (Nov)

2013-11-19 13:45 GMT | US Treasury Sec Lew Speech

2013-11-19 23:30 GMT | AU Westpac Leading Index (MoM) (Sep)

2013-11-19 23:50 GMT | JP Merchandise Trade Balance Total (Oct)

FOREX NEWS :

2013-11-19 06:50 GMT | EUR/USD parked around 1.3500

2013-11-19 06:02 GMT | AUD bids expected on largest Australian bond deal issuance

2013-11-19 04:04 GMT | Dovish Yellen may limit further USD longs by specs - Rabobank

2013-11-19 02:28 GMT | EUR/JPY wants to consolidate 134.70 front

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EURUSD :

HIGH 1.35231 LOW 1.34989 BID 1.35143 ASK 1.35148 CHANGE 0.07% TIME 08:52:00

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Fresh portion of the economic data releases might increase volatility later on today. Clearance of our next resistive barrier at 1.3530 (R1) is required to push the price towards to our next visible targets at 1.3549 (R2) and 1.3567 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the downside we see potential to positively retest our supportive measure at 1.3494 (S1). Clearance here is required to open route towards to our initial targets at 1.3474 (S2) and 1.3454 (S3) in potential.

Resistance Levels: 1.3530, 1.3549, 1.3567

Support Levels: 1.3494, 1.3474, 1.3454

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GBPUSD :

HIGH 1.61242 LOW 1.60964 BID 1.61032 ASK 1.61041 CHANGE -0.04% TIME 08:52:01

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Instrument gained momentum on the upside recently, turning short-term bias to the positive side. Further upwards penetration above the resistance at 1.6148 (R1) would enable intraday targets at 1.6177 (R2) and 1.6206 (R3). Downwards scenario: Risk of possible price depreciation is seen below the support level at 1.6081 (S1). Break here is required to open the way towards to immediate supports at 1.6053 (S2) and 1.6025 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.6148, 1.6177, 1.6206

Support Levels: 1.6081, 1.6053, 1.6025

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USDJPY :

HIGH 100.001 LOW 99.571 BID 99.821 ASK 99.825 CHANGE -0.17% TIME 08:52:02

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: On the upside potential is seen for a break above the resistance at 100.20 (R1). In such case we would suggest next target at 100.41 (R2) and any further rise would then be limited to final resistance at 100.62 (R3). Downwards scenario: We expect further correction evolvement if the price manages to overcome key supportive bastion at 99.56 (S1). In such case we would suggest next intraday targets at 99.35 (S2) and 99.13 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 100.20, 100.41, 100.62

Support Levels: 99.56, 99.35, 99.13

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

alayoua · November 21, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Nov 21 2013

European manufacturing PMIs published Thursday could indicate the ECB's next move on interest rates

Thursday sees the publication of Germany's and France's flash manufacturing and service PMIs together with Europe's which is expected to print at 51.6 for manufacturing and 51.9 for services. The RBA governor of Australia holds court on Thursday, whilst the UK's public net sector borrowing is published expected slightly up in at £10.1 bn. USA PPI is expected in at -0.1% whilst unemployment numbers are expected in at 333K, slightly up from the previous week. Flash manufacturing data is expected to print at 52.6. Europe's consumer confidence is expected in at -14.1 with the Philly manufacturing index for the USA expected in at 15.1, down from 19.8 the previous month. Perhaps the most illuminating comment in the latest FOMC meeting minutes, published late Wednesday evening, was the commitment that; "the Committee today reaffirmed its view that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends". The U.S. Dollar Index, which monitors the greenback against 10 major peers, increased for the first time in four days, adding 0.4 percent to 1,019.10 yen late in New York. The euro declined 0.9 percent to 134.34 yen after earlier touching 135.95, the strongest level since October 2009. The shared currency fell 0.8 percent to $1.3435. The dollar slid 0.1 percent to 99.99 yen. The dollar rose versus most major peers as Federal Reserve officials said they might reduce their $85 billion in monthly bond purchases “in coming months” as the economy improves, minutes of their last meeting show.

http://blog.fxcc.com/market-analysis

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :

2013-11-21 08:58 GMT | EMU Markit Manufacturing PMI (Nov)

2013-11-21 09:05 GMT | RBA's Governor Glenn Stevens Speech

2013-11-21 10:05 GMT | ECB President Draghi's Speech

2013-11-21 13:30 GMT | US Producer Price Index (YoY) (Oct)

FOREX NEWS :

2013-11-21 06:15 GMT | USD/JPY cracks 100.60, new 6-month high

2013-11-21 05:05 GMT | EUR/USD maintains bearish pressure, 1.3390 is critical support Thursday

2013-11-21 04:31 GMT | AUD/USD bearish march pauses at 0.93 ahead of RBA Stevens

2013-11-21 03:24 GMT | BoJ keeps policy unchanged, retains 60T-70T easing plan

EURUSD :

HIGH 1.3442 LOW 1.34136 BID 1.34286 ASK 1.34289 CHANGE -0.07% TIME 08 : 37:15

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: EURUSD tested negative side recently, however we see potential to test resistive barrier at 1.3462 (R1) later on today. Successful penetration above that level would suggest next intraday targets at 1.3492 (R2) and 1.3525 (R3) later on today. Downwards scenario: Fresh low offers a key supportive measure at 1.3412 (S1) on a downside. A violation here is liable to commence correction pattern on the bigger picture and expose our initial targets at 1.3380 (S2) and 1.3348 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3462, 1.3492, 1.3525

Support Levels: 1.3412, 1.3380, 1.3348

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GBPUSD :

HIGH 1.61082 LOW 1.60721 BID 1.60860 ASK 1.60869 CHANGE -0.11% TIME 08 : 37:16

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Neutral

TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: GBPUSD trapped to the consolidation phase on the hourly chart frame. Break of resistive level at 1.6177 (R1) is required to enable upwards action. Next visible targets are seen at 1.6220 (R2) and 1.6260 (R3). Downwards scenario: However, if the price manages to break our key support level at 1.6057 (S1) bearish market participants might take the initiative. Our intraday support level locates at 1.6018 (S2) and 1.5978 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.6177, 1.6220, 1.6260

Support Levels: 1.6057, 1.6018, 1.5978

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USDJPY :

HIGH 100.812 LOW 100.006 BID 100.690 ASK 100.694 CHANGE 0.66% TIME 08 : 37:17

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Up trend

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: Market gained momentum on the upside recently and turned short-term tendency to the positive side. Further appreciation above the resistance at 100.88 (R1) might push the price towards to our targets at 101.12 (R2) and 101.36 (R3) later on today. Downwards scenario: Our next support level is placed at 100.44 (S1). Possible penetration below it might initiate bearish pressure and push the price towards to our intraday targets at 100.19 (S2) and 99.95 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 100.88, 101.12, 101.36

Support Levels: 100.44, 100.19, 99.95

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

alayoua · November 22, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Nov 22 2013

DJIA closes above 16,000 for the first time as dollar yen rises above 101

Today we receive the data concerning Germany's final GDP figure expected in at 0.3% up, with the German IFO index expected in at 107.9. Friday also sees a raft of info. regarding Canada; core CPI data is published expected in flat, with CPI up 0.2%. Retail sales is predicted in up 0.5% for the month. Jolts job openings are published in the USA, it measures the number of job openings during the reported month, excluding the farming industry. The DJIA rose more than 100 points and finally closed above 16,000 for the first time in history on Thursday. The index crossed that psychological milestone earlier this week, but then sold off for three days as the index closed in the red. The S&P 500 also closed up, while the Nasdaq rose more than 1%. The yen fell 1.1 percent to 101.16 per dollar late in New York time Thursday, the weakest level seen since July 10th. Japan’s currency slid 1.4 percent to 136.37 per euro after declining to 136.40, the lowest since October 2009. The euro rose 0.3 percent to $1.3482. The U.S. Dollar Index, which tracks the currency versus 10 major counterparts, rose 0.2 percent to 1,020.97 after advancing 0.4 percent Wednesday. The dollar gauge breached its 100- and 200-day moving averages as it approached a two-month high.

http://blog.fxcc.com/market-analysis

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :

2013-11-22 07:00 GMT | DE Gross Domestic Product w.d.a (YoY)

2013-11-22 09:30 GMT | ECB President Draghi's Speech

2013-11-22 13:30 GMT | CA Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Oct)

2013-11-22 13:30 GMT | CA Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep)

FOREX NEWS :

2013-11-22 06:47 GMT | EUR/USD tests highs ahead of German data

2013-11-22 06:34 GMT | GBP/USD nearing upper edge of two-month trading range

2013-11-22 05:39 GMT | USD/JPY retests 101.00 bids, 101.30+ double topside failure

2013-11-22 03:41 GMT | AUD/USD bearish party goes on, 0.92 gives up

EURUSD :

HIGH 1.34895 LOW 1.34624 BID 1.34837 ASK 1.34840 CHANGE 0.02% TIME 08 : 57:07

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Further upwards penetration might face next challenge at 1.3495 (R1). Break here would suggest next target at 1.3513 (R2) en route towards to last resistance for today at 1.3530 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the downside, support level at 1.3462 (S1) limits possible downtrend expansion. Break here is required to enable lower target at 1.3444 (S2) en route to final aim at 1.3426 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3495, 1.3513, 1.3530

Support Levels: 1.3462, 1.3444, 1.3426

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GBPUSD :

HIGH 1.62046 LOW 1.61764 BID 1.61945 ASK 1.61952 CHANGE -0.02% TIME 08 : 57:08

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: An element of resistive measure could be found at 1.6213 (R1). Clearance here would open way towards to higher target at 1.6242 (R2) and any further rise would then be limited to last resistance at 1.6271 (R3). Downwards scenario: Any downside fluctuations remains for now limited to the next support barrier at 1.6178 (S1). Only clear break here would be a signal of possible market easing towards to our targets at 1.6150 (S2) and 1.6122 (S3) in potential

Resistance Levels: 1.6213, 1.6242, 1.6271

Support Levels: 1.6178, 1.6150, 1.6122

--------------------------

USDJPY :

HIGH 101.353 LOW 100.956 BID 100.997 ASK 100.999 CHANGE -0.15% TIME 08 : 57:10

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Sideway

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Market players may prefer to stay neutral today during limited tier one macroeconomic data flow, though a break of our resistance at 101.36 (R1) would suggest next targets at 101.58 (R2) and 101.81 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other side, a dip below the initial support level at 100.84 (S1) is liable to trigger bearish pressure and drive market price towards to supportive means at 100.62 (S2) and 100.39 (S3) in potential.

Resistance Levels: 101.36, 101.58, 101.81

Support Levels: 100.84, 100.62, 100.39

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

alayoua · November 25, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Nov 25 2013

Iran's real rises versus the U.S. dollar as historic agreement reached whilst oil falls circa one percent.

Hedge-fund managers and other large institutional speculators increased their net-long position in two-year note futures to the highest level since August, according to U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data. Speculative long positions, or bets that prices will rise, outnumbered short positions by 34,011 contracts in the week ending Nov. 19th on the Chicago Board of Trade, this was up 19 percent, from the week previous. The benchmark 10-year yield rose four basis points last week, or 0.04 percentage point, to 2.74 percent in New York. The price of the 2.75 percent note maturing in November 2023 was 100 2/32. A gauge of U.S. company credit risk fell to its lowest level since 2007 as job openings (JOLTS) climbed to a five-year high. The Markit CDX North American Investment Grade Index, a credit-default swaps benchmark investors use to hedge against losses, or to speculate on creditworthiness, decreased 1.7 basis points to 68.8 basis points in New York trading last week. The benchmark reached the lowest closing level since November 2007. Iran’s currency strengthened more than 2 percent as the Nation won access about $7 billion in relief from sanctions after agreeing to limit its nuclear program, ending a decade-long diplomatic stalemate. The rial appreciated by 2.3 percent to 29,300 a dollar on Sunday in Tehran compared with 30,000 yesterday, according to prices provided by street traders in the Iranian currency black market. The currency had lost more than half its value in the year before President Hassan Rouhani’s election in June, partly as a consequence of sanctions denying Iran access to the global financial system. Iran’s gross domestic product declined by approx. 5.4 percent in the fiscal year ending in March. Sanctions have pushed the country’s oil output to the lowest since 1990.

http://blog.fxcc.com/market-analysis

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :

2013-11-25 15:00 GMT | USA. Pending Home Sales (YoY) (Oct)

2013-11-25 15:30 GMT | USA. Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index (Nov)

2013-11-25 22:00 GMT | Australia. RBA Deputy Governor Lowe Speech

2013-11-25 23:50 GMT | Japan. BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

FOREX NEWS :

2013-11-25 06:16 GMT | Gold suffers intraday flash crash, off $12 from 1238.00 to 1,226.00

2013-11-25 05:16 GMT | AUD/USD breaks below Friday's low as bounces keep failing

2013-11-25 05:10 GMT | EUR/JPY touches Fibonacci projection at 137.90 and backs off temporarily

2013-11-25 04:41 GMT | GBP/JPY closes week above LT key level of 163.52; bears running for cover

-------------------

EURUSD :

HIGH 1.356 LOW 1.35368 BID 1.35368 ASK 1.35371 CHANGE -0.14% TIME 08 : 13:00

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Sideway

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Next barrier on the upside lie at 1.3563 (R1). Surpassing of this level might enable our initial target at 1.3583 (R2) and any further gains would then be limited to last resistive structure at 1.3608 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the downside our attention is shifted to the immediate support level at 1.3520 (S1). Break here is required to enable bearish forces and expose our intraday targets at 1.3498 (S2) and 1.3473 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3563, 1.3583, 1.3608

Support Levels: 1.3520, 1.3498, 1.3473

-------------------

GBPUSD :

HIGH 1.62401 LOW 1.62055 BID 1.62064 ASK 1.62073 CHANGE -0.1% TIME 08 : 13:01

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Immediate resistance at 1.6236 (R1) remains in near-term focus, climb above this level might open way for a stronger move towards to next interim target at 1.6276 (R2) and any further rise would then be limited to final resistive measure at 1.6309 (R3). Downwards scenario: Any downside extension is limited now to the next support level at 1.6188 (S1). Break here is required to open a route towards to next target at 1.6145 (S2) and then any further easing would be targeting final support at 1.6108 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.6236, 1.6276, 1.6309

Support Levels: 1.6188, 1.6145, 1.6108

--------------------------

USDJPY :

HIGH 101.917 LOW 101.139 BID 101.879 ASK 101.882 CHANGE 0.63% TIME 08 : 13:02

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Up trend

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: Any upside action is limited now to the next resistive structure at 102.02 (R1). Clearance here might shift trader’s sentiment to bullish side and open road towards to our initial targets at 102.21 (R2) and 102.50 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, risk of correction development is seen below the next support at 101.20 (S1). Possible price downgrade would suggest next initial targets at 100.99 (S2) and 100.77 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 102.02, 102.21, 102.50

Support Levels: 101.20, 100.99, 100.77

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

alayoua · November 26, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Nov 26 2013

USA house price index is published as the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index is expected to rise.

Tuesday in the UK will see the publication of the UK's Nationwide Building Society's house price inflation report. As one of the more modest/reasonable indices of house price data in the UK the print is expected to come in up 0.6% month on month. The UK also holds inflation report hearings during the day. The USA publishes data on building permits and housing starts, expected in at circa 0.92K for both. The Standard & Poor's Case Shiller house price index is published with the expectations that annual house price inflation in the USA will rise to 13% year on year. The Conference Board Confidence index is published, expected in at 72.1, with the Richmond Manufacturing index expected up at 3 from the previous reading of 1.0. Late Tuesday evening New Zealand publishes its trade balance, expected down at -345 million, whilst construction data (completed) for Australia is published. The yen fell 0.4 percent to 101.67 per dollar late in New York time on Monday after reaching 101.92, the weakest since May 29th. It slid 0.1 percent to 137.43 per euro after touching 137.99, the weakest since October 2009. The dollar added 0.3 percent to $1.3517 against Europe’s shared currency. The U.S. Dollar Index, which tracks the currency against 10 major counterparts, rose 0.2 percent to 1,020.95.

http://blog.fxcc.com/market-analysis

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :

2013-11-26 10:00 GMT | UK Inflation Report Hearings

2013-11-26 13:30 GMT | US Housing Starts (MoM) (Oct)

2013-11-26 15:00 GMT | US Consumer Confidence (Nov)

2013-11-26 21:45 GMT | NZ Trade Balance (YoY) (Oct)

FOREX NEWS :

2013-11-26 05:44 GMT | EUR/USD at risk of further retracements - ANZ

2013-11-26 04:47 GMT | Gold giving its best impression of an upside attempt – something not seen in a while

2013-11-26 03:55 GMT | GBP/USD falling softly after posting a nasty bearish reversal candle on Monday

2013-11-26 02:16 GMT | USD/JPY taking a breather after closing Monday above key “correction resistance” at 101.46

-----------------------

EURUSD :

HIGH 1.35408 LOW 1.35151 BID 1.35301 ASK 1.35305 CHANGE 0.1% TIME 08 : 36:32

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Risk of possible price appreciation is seen above the next resistance level at 1.3541 (R1). Clearance here would suggest next intraday target at 1.3553 (R2) and then final aim locates at 1.3566 (R3). Downwards scenario: Our technical outlook would turn into negative side below the support level at 1.3516 (S1). Possible price depreciation would then be targeting support at 1.3504 (S2) en route to final target at 1.3492 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3541, 1.3553, 1.3566

Support Levels: 1.3516, 1.3504, 1.3492

--------------------------

GBPUSD :

HIGH 1.61742 LOW 1.61456 BID 1.61462 ASK 1.61469 CHANGE -0.05% TIME 08 : 36:33

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Immediate resistance at 1.6174 (R1) remains in near-term focus, climb above this level might open way towards to next interim target at 1.6193 (R2) and any further rise would then be limited to final resistive measure at 1.6213 (R3) Downwards scenario: Opportunity for bearish oriented traders is seen below the important support level at 1.6133 (S1). Loss here would open door for the downtrend expansion towards to interim targets at 1.6114 (S2) and 1.6096 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.6174, 1.6193, 1.6213

Support Levels: 1.6133, 1.6114, 1.6096

------------------

USDJPY :

HIGH 101.71 LOW 101.333 BID 101.551 ASK 101.555 CHANGE -0.12% TIME 08 : 36:34

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Next actual resistance level is seen at 101.91 (R1). If the market manages to surge higher, our focus will shift to the next target at 102.15 (R2) and any further price strengthening would be limited to final resistance at 102.39 (R3). Downwards scenario: Any penetration below the support level at 101.32 (S1) might create more scope for the instrument weakness in near-term perspective. We are looking to our immediate supports at 101.10 (S2) and 100.86 (S3) as next possible targets.

Resistance Levels: 101.91, 102.15, 102.39

Support Levels: 101.32, 101.10, 100.86

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

alayoua · November 27, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Nov 27 2013

Unemployment claims in the USA expected to stay in their narrow range of 331K

Wednesday sees the UK's second estimate GDP figure is published, expected to come in at 0.8%. The preliminary business investment data is published, it fell by 2.7% last quarter the expectations is for a 2.3% rise in the latest figures. The GFK German consumer confidence is published expected in at 7.1, versus 7.0 in the previous month. Durable goods orders for the USA are expected to fall by 1.5%, the Chicago PMI is excepted to fall to 60.6, with unemployment claims in at 331K. Natural gas and oil storage figures for the USA need watching carefully in relation to the volatility of trading oil and gas. Retail sales in Japan are scheduled to fall to a 2.2% increase month on month. The New Zealand ANZ business confidence index is published in the evening, as is Australian data concerning new homes sales and private capital expenditure, the latter expected to fall by -1.1%. Looking towards Wednesday's market open the DJIA equity index future is flat, as is the SPX, with the NASDAQ up 0.53%. STOXX is down 0.23%, DAX down 0.03%, CAC down 0.52% and FTSE down 0.93%. NYMEX WTI oil closed down 0.44% on the Dayan Tuesday at $93.68 per barrel, NYMEX nat gas was up 0.77% at $3.82 per therm. COMEX gold was flat at $1241.50 per ounce and silver at$19.85 per ounce down 0.38%. The euro strengthened 0.4 percent to $1.3572 per dollar late in New York time Tuesday after rising to $1.3575, the highest level since Nov. 20th. The 17-nation currency was little changed at 137.46 yen. Japan’s currency appreciated 0.4 percent to 101.28 per dollar after gaining 0.5 percent, the most since Nov. 13th. Australia’s dollar fell 0.8 percent to 92.44 yen after decreasing 1 percent to 92.25, the weakest since Oct. 10th. The U.S. Dollar Index, which tracks the currency against 10 major counterparts, fell 0.2 percent to 1,018.83 after gaining 0.1 percent.

http://blog.fxcc.com/market-analysis

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :

2013-11-27 12:00 GMT | USA. MBA Mortgage Applications (Nov 22)

2013-11-27 13:30 GMT | USA. Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Oct)

2013-11-27 13:30 GMT | USA. Durable Goods Orders (Oct)

2013-11-27 13:30 GMT | USA. Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 22)

FOREX NEWS :

2013-11-27 05:49 GMT | GBP/JPY finds offers at 164.90

2013-11-27 03:44 GMT | EUR/USD spikes in Asia, approaching 1.36

2013-11-27 01:47 GMT | AUD/USD pressured; glued to 0.91

2013-11-27 01:41 GMT | USD/JPY trading a bit higher Wednesday after posting a bearish reversal candle Tuesday

-------------------

EURUSD

HIGH 1.3599 LOW 1.35576 BID 1.35876 ASK 1.35881 CHANGE 0.11% TIME 08 : 07:20

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: The next resistance level is at 1.3597 (R1). Penetration above that level might trigger upside action and expose our next resistive mean at 1.3620 (R2) en route towards to final target for today at 1.3646 (R3). Downwards scenario: Further correction development is limited now to the session low - 1.3560 (S1). If the price manages to surpass it we would suggest next intraday targets at 1.3542 (S2) and 1.3520 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3597, 1.3620, 1.3646

Support Levels: 1.3560, 1.3542, 1.3520

-----------------------

GBPUSD :

HIGH 1.62305 LOW 1.61973 BID 1.62164 ASK 1.62176 CHANGE 0.01% TIME 08 : 07:21

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: Possible upwards formation is limited now to resistive measure at 1.6236 (R1). A break above it would suggest next intraday target at 1.6276 (R2) and if the price holds its momentum we can expect price increase towards to final resistance at 1.6309 (R3). Downwards scenario: If the price manages to overcome our next support barrier at 1.6188 (S1), we expect to see further market decline towards to our next target at 1.6145 (S2) and then next stop could be found at 1.6108 (S3) mark.

Resistance Levels: 1.6236, 1.6276, 1.6309

Support Levels: 1.6188, 1.6145, 1.6108

---------------------

USDJPY :

HIGH 101.652 LOW 101.184 BID 101.496 ASK 101.501 CHANGE 0.22% TIME 08 : 07:22

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: A violation of next resistance at 101.89 (R1) might call for a run towards to next target at 102.13 (R2) and any further appreciation would then be limited to final target at 102.35 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, a break of the support at 101.22 (S1) is required to determine negative intraday bias and enable lower target at 101.00 (S2). Clearance of this target would open a path towards to final support for today at 100.76 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 101.89, 102.13, 102.35

Support Levels: 101.22, 101.00, 100.76

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

alayoua · December 2, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Dec 02 2013

Australian Manufacturing Slips in November, U.S. Retail Holiday Sales Up 2.3%, Whilst Foot Traffic Declines.

The latest Australian Industry Group Australian Performance of Manufacturing Index (Australian PMI) fell by 5.4 points in November, to 47.7 points (seasonally adjusted). This fall interrupted the promising run of mild expansion in the Australian PMI over the past two months (50 points marks the separation between expansion and contraction in the Australian PMI) and took the index back to its pre-election levels. The Australian PMI is again indicating varying degrees of contraction across the manufacturing sectors. U.S. retailers enjoyed a 2.3 percent sales gain over the critical Thanksgiving and Black Friday holiday time, in line with a prediction for the weakest holiday results since 2009. Sales at brick-and-mortar stores on Thanksgiving and Black Friday rose to $12.3 billion, according to a report yesterday from ShopperTrak a Chicago-based researcher who reiterated its prediction that sales for the entire holiday season will gain 2.4 percent, representing the smallest increase since the last recession. Sunday-Monday morning is a relatively quite opening for high impact news events, capital spending in Japan is predicted to rise by 3.1%. The HSBC final manufacturing PMI for China is expected to come in at 50.5. There is a raft of Australian data published overnight/early morning, with building approvals being the standout piece of data which is expected to fall to -4.3% from a positive 14.4% the previous month. Company operating profits are published for Australian companies. New Zealand's overseas trade index is expected in at 3.0%.

http://blog.fxcc.com/market-analysis

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :

2013-12-02 08:58 GMT | EMU Markit Manufacturing PMI (Nov)

2013-12-02 09:28 GMT | UK Markit Manufacturing PMI (Nov)

2013-12-02 13:30 GMT | US Fed's Bernanke Speech

2013-12-02 15:00 GMT | US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Nov)

FOREX NEWS :

2013-12-02 07:52 GMT | AUD/USD firmer, eyes on 0.9170

2013-12-02 06:53 GMT | EUR/USD stabilizing around 1.3600

2013-12-02 04:10 GMT | USD/JPY, second topside failure at 102.60

2013-12-02 03:06 GMT | GBP/USD, if 1.64/6425 absorbed, potential into 1.70/1.73 - BBH

-----------------------

EURUSD :

HIGH 1.36157 LOW 1.35812 BID 1.36032 ASK 1.36036 CHANGE 0% TIME 10 : 01:18

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Sideway

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Possibility of price appreciation is seen above the key resistance at 1.3622 (R1). Break here would open a route towards to our intraday targets at 1.3643 (R2) and 1.3664 (R3). Downwards scenario: An important technical level at 1.3580 (S1) prevents possible market weakening. Break here is required to open road towards to interim target at 1.3558 (S2) en route to final aim at 1.3537 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3622, 1.3643, 1.3664

Support Levels: 1.3580, 1.3558, 1.3537

--------------------

GBPUSD :

HIGH 1.64422 LOW 1.63684 BID 1.64126 ASK 1.64128 CHANGE 0% TIME 10 : 01:18

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Up trend

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low

Upwards scenario: Fractal level at 1.6442 (R1) offers next resistive structure on the upside. If the price manages to overcome it, we would expect further appreciation towards to our initial targets at 1.6471 (R2) and 1.6499 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the hourly chart GBPUSD looks overbought and possibility of correction is high. Friday’s high offers key support level at 1.6385 (S1). Break here is required to enable our next targets at 1.6356 (S2) and 1.6327 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.6442, 1.6471, 1.6499

Support Levels: 1.6385, 1.6356, 1.6327

--------------------

USDJPY :

HIGH 102.594 LOW 102.226 BID 102.559 ASK 102.562 CHANGE 0% TIME 10 : 01:18

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Sideway

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Price comfortably ranging on the hourly chart, however we see potential to overcome our next resistive barrier at 102.61 (R1) later on today. Any prolonged movement above it would suggest next intraday targets at 102.82 (R2) and 103.05 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, successful retest of our support level at 102.21 (S1) would clear the way for a recovery action towards to our lower targets at 102.00 (S2) and 101.78 (S3) in potential.

Resistance Levels: 102.61, 102.82, 103.05

Support Levels: 102.21, 102.00, 101.78

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

alayoua · December 3, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Dec 03 2013

Australia's RBA expected to keep cash rate at 2.5%, whilst UK house prices and construction expected to rise

Tuesday sees the publication of several key economic data, including Spanish unemployment data expected in at 44.3K below the 88K the previous month. In the UK the Halifax house price ides is expected to rise by 0.8% month on month, whilst the construction PMI is expected in at 59.3. Total vehicle sales in the USA might give an indication of the overall consumer sentiment and the existing appetite for new credit. Australia's GDP is expected in at 0.7% up from 0.6% the previous month. The yen fell 0.5 percent to 102.94 per dollar late in New York time Monday, touching the least since May 23rd. Japan’s currency fell 0.1 percent to 139.40 per euro after depreciating to 139.71 on Nov. 29th, the weakest level since October 2008. The euro dropped 0.4 percent to $1.3542. The yen fell to a six-month low versus the dollar Monday after reports showed manufacturing in China, Europe and the U.K. expanded last month, driving demand for risk and underscoring Japan’s currency’s role in the carry trade. Australia’s dollar was little changed after rallying from almost its weakest level in three months and New Zealand’s currency rose for a second day. The Reserve Bank of Australia meets overnight Monday/Tuesday, analysts predict policy makers will keep interest rates unchanged at 2.5 percent. The Aussie rose as much as 0.7 percent versus the greenback after falling as low as 90.56 on Nov. 29th, the least since Sept. 4th. New Zealand’s currency climbed 0.8 percent to 81.86 U.S. cents.

http://blog.fxcc.com/market-analysis

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :

2013-12-03 09:30 GMT UK PMI Construction (Nov)

2013-12-03 10:00 GMT EMU Producer Price Index (YoY) (Oct)

2013-12-03 16:30 GMT US 4-Week Bill Auction

2013-12-03 23:30 GMT AU AiG Performance of Services Index (Nov)

FOREX NEWS :

2013-12-03 05:14 GMT USD/JPY breaks above 103.25 barrier

2013-12-03 04:35 GMT EUR/USD likely see stronger selling interest after 1.3550/60 loss

2013-12-03 03:39 GMT AUD/USD offers absorbing initial 0.9065 bounce post RBA

2013-12-03 03:34 GMT RBA leaves rates unchanged, keeps neutral tone

-------------------

EURUSD :

HIGH 1.35504 LOW 1.35244 BID 1.35497 ASK 1.35499 CHANGE 0% TIME 08 : 52:43

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Discounted value of EURUSD determined negative bias on the short-term perspective. From the technical side, next resistance is seen at 1.3559 (R1). Only clearance here would allow possible gains, targeting 1.3576 (R2) and 1.3592 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the downside, next on tap is seen support level at 1.3524 (S1). Break here is required to enable lower targets at 1.3508 (S2) and 1.3491 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3559, 1.3576, 1.3592

Support Levels: 1.3524, 1.3508, 1.3491

-------------------

GBPUSD :

HIGH 1.63783 LOW 1.63467 BID 1.6377 ASK 1.63775 CHANGE 0.01% TIME 08 : 52:43

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: On the upside resistive measure at 1.6384 (R1) prevents further gains. Successful clearance here would suggest next intraday targets at 1.6407 (R2) and 1.6429 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand if the price failed to gain momentum on the upside we expect to see clearance of our next support level at 1.6343 (S1). Our intraday targets locates at 1.6320 (S2) and 1.6297 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.6384, 1.6407, 1.6429

Support Levels: 1.6343, 1.6320, 1.6297

---------------------

USDJPY :

HIGH 103.379 LOW 102.833 BID 103.237 ASK 103.239 CHANGE -0.03% TIME 08 : 52:43

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Up trend

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Market sentiment has improved for the bullish oriented traders. Fractals level at 103.43 (R1) offers a key resistance level. Break here would suggest higher targets at 103.67 (R2) and 103.92 (R3). Downwards scenario: Our bearish expectations remain intact below the key support level at 102.81 (S1). Price penetration below it would allow further declines towards to lower targets at 102.56 (S2) and 102.30 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 103.43, 103.67, 103.92

Support Levels: 102.81, 102.56, 102.30

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

alayoua · December 4, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Dec 04 2013

Will the Bank of Canada lower base rates from 1%? And will USA job numbers from ADP enjoy a seasonal boost?

Wednesday there's a raft of PMIs published early morning, Spanish and Italian final services PMIs with Europe's final services PMI also published expected in at 50.9. The UK services PMI is expected in at 62.1. There are OPEC meetings all day Wednesday, naturally these could have a positive, or negative impact on the price of oil. Retail sales for Europe is expected in at +0.2% from the -0.6% negative the previous month. Europe's revised GDP growth is expected in at 0.1%. The USA ADP employment numbers are expected to show an improvement of circa 185K jobs created for the month. Canada's trade balance is expected in up to $0.7bn, the USA's is expected in at $40.3 bn. The bank of Canada will publish its decision on its rate setting, expected to stay at 1.00%. Further USA news comes in the form of new home sales expected in at circa 432K, whilst the USA PMI for non manufacturing is expected in at 55.4. Crude oil inventories completes the day for USA high impact news releases with the beige book data also published. Australia's trade balance completes the day for news events. The U.S. 10-year yield declined one basis point on Tuesday, or 0.01 percentage point, to 2.78 percent late New York time. It fell as much as four basis points after rising one basis point earlier. It reached 2.81 percent yesterday, the highest since Nov. 21st. The price of the 2.75 percent security maturing in November 2023 gained 3/32, or 94 cents per $1,000 face amount, to 99 23/32.

http://blog.fxcc.com/market-analysis

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :

2013-12-04 09:28 GMT | UK Markit Services PMI (Nov)

2013-12-04 10:00 GMT | EMY Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) (Q3)

2013-12-04 15:00 GMT | BoC Interest Rate Decision

2013-12-04 19:00 GMT | US Fed's Beige Book

FOREX NEWS :

2013-12-04 03:50 GMT | NZD/USD rejected by daily kijun, bearish below 0.8340/50

2013-12-04 03:35 GMT | Yen bearish trend to continue - JPMorgan

2013-12-04 02:37 GMT | EUR/JPY engaged in intraday battle, loss of H1 ichimoku cloud weighs

2013-12-04 01:57 GMT | AUD/USD breaks into new trend lows, sovereign bids sub 0.9050?

----------------------

EURUSD :

HIGH 1.35976 LOW 1.35816 BID 1.35843 ASK 1.35845 CHANGE 0% TIME 08 : 43:56

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: A violation of next resistance at 1.3614 (R1) might call for a run towards to next target at 1.3629 (R2) and any further appreciation would then be limited to final target at 1.3644 (R3). Downwards scenario: Risk of market weakening is seen below the support level at 1.3580 (S1). Loss here is required to enable our supportive barrier at 1.3565 (S2) en route towards to final target for today at 1.3550 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3614, 1.3629, 1.3644

Support Levels: 1.3580, 1.3565, 1.3550

------------------

GBPUSD :

HIGH 1.63974 LOW 1.63781 BID 1.63918 ASK 1.63922 CHANGE 0.01% TIME 08 : 43:56

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Neutral

TREND CONDITION : Sideway

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: Next resistive barrier locates at 1.6407 (R1). Violation here is required to provide a signal of further market strengthening. In such case, resistances at 1.6429 (R2) and 1.6450 (R3) acts as next attractive points for the bullish oriented traders. Downwards scenario: As long as price stays below the 20 SMA our technical outlook would be negative. Extension lower the next support level at 1.6374 (S1) is being able to drive market price towards to our next targets at 1.6353 (S2) and 1.6331(S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.6407, 1.6429, 1.6450

Support Levels: 1.6374, 1.6353, 1.6331

----------------------

USDJPY :

HIGH 102.663 LOW 102.239 BID 102.586 ASK 102.589 CHANGE 0% TIME 08 : 43:56

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Resistance at 102.75 (R1) limits possible upwards penetration. Break here is required to enable next interim target at 102.94 (R2) en route towards to final aim for today at 103.11 (R3). Downwards scenario: Next support level lies at 102.30 (S1). Penetration below it might shift short-term tone to the negative side. Our intraday targets locates at 102.14 (S2) and 101.96 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 102.75, 102.94, 103.11

Support Levels: 102.30, 102.14, 101.96

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

alayoua · December 6, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Dec 06 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Dec 06 2013

NFP day could witness a surprise 'jobs' number

Friday sees Japan's leading indicators published, France's trade balance is expected in at €-5.1bn, Germany's factory orders are expected to fall by -0.4%. Canada's unemployment number is expected to rise to 7.0%. Non-farm jobs created are expected in at circa 184K, with the USA unemployment expected in at 7.2%. Personal spending in the USA is expected in up 0.4%, whilst the preliminary university of Michigan survey of consumer sentiment expected in at 76.2. Later on Friday sees FOMC member Evans hold court, with the BOJ governor Kuroda holding court later in the evening. Late Friday evening-early Saturday morning China's trade balance is published. The euro advanced 0.6 percent to $1.3671 late in New York on Thursday after rising to $1.3677, the strongest level since Oct. 31st. The single currency was little changed at 139.10 yen after weakening as much as 0.5 percent. The dollar fell 0.6 percent to 101.74 yen. The euro rose to a five-week high versus the dollar as European Central Bank President Mario Draghi refrained from introducing further monetary stimulus. Sterling slumped 0.9 percent to 83.74 pence per euro late London time Thursday, the biggest decline since March 7th. The pound dropped 0.4 percent to $1.6315 after climbing to $1.6443 on Dec. 2nd, the highest since August 2011. The DJIA equity index future is at the time of writing down 0.43%, SPX future down 0.44%, NASDAQ down 0.11%. STOXX future is down 1.24%, DAX down 0.50%, CAC down 1.21%, FTSE future down 0.34%.

http://blog.fxcc.com/market-analysis

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :

2013-12-06 13:30 GMT | USA. Nonfarm Payrolls (Nov)

2013-12-06 13:30 GMT | USA. Unemployment Rate (Nov)

2013-12-06 13:30 GMT | Canada. Unemployment Rate (Nov)

2013-12-06 13:30 GMT | Canada. Net Change in Employment (Nov)

FOREX NEWS :

2013-12-06 04:45 GMT | Yen slides on GPIF headlines

2013-12-06 04:45 GMT | EUR/USD not relenting on upside – which shows just how strong Europe is perceived to be

2013-12-06 03:38 GMT | USD/JPY continues downside correction despite good US numbers from Thursday

2013-12-06 00:12 GMT | GBP/USD pulling back after touching upside projected target at 1.6425 this week

----------------------

EURUSD :

HIGH 1.36742 LOW 1.36566 BID 1.36608 ASK 1.36611 CHANGE 0.01% TIME 08 : 37:57

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Market sentiment has improved for the bullish oriented traders. Fresh high formed yesterday offers key resistance level at 1.3676 (R1). In case of price appreciation above it our focus would be shifted to the higher targets at 1.3692 (R2) and 1.3709 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, successful retest of our next support level at 1.3640 (S1) might provide sufficient momentum for the price acceleration towards to interim target at 1.3621 (S2). Final aim for today locates at 1.3599 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3676, 1.3692, 1.3709

Support Levels: 1.3640, 1.3621, 1.3599

------------------

GBPUSD :

HIGH 1.63414 LOW 1.6319 BID 1.63243 ASK 1.63249 CHANGE 0% TIME 08 : 37:57

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: Measures of resistance might be activating when the pair approaches the 1.6340 (R1) mark. Break here would suggest next interim target at 1.6369 (R2) and If the price keeps its momentum we expect an exposure of 1.6392 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the downside our attention is shifted to the immediate support level at 1.6310 (S1). Break here is required to enable bearish forces and expose our intraday targets at 1.6289 (S2) and 1.6266 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.6340, 1.6369, 1.6392

Support Levels: 1.6310, 1.6289, 1.6266

----------------------

USDJPY :

HIGH 102.167 LOW 101.631 BID 102.114 ASK 102.117 CHANGE 0% TIME 08 : 37:57

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Down trend

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: Currently price deviates from its initial downside extension. Clearance of our next resistance level at 102.30 (R1) might trigger corrective action towards to our initial targets at 102.58 (R2) and 102.81 (R3). Downwards scenario: We do expect some pull-backs development on the downside below the support level at 101.93 (S1). Short-term momentum on the negative side might open the way towards to immediate supports at 101.69 (S2) and 101.43 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 102.30, 102.58, 102.81

Support Levels: 101.93, 101.69, 101.43

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

alayoua · December 9, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Dec 09 2013

China's trade surplus reaches a four year high as exports rise signalling strength returning to the world’s second largest economy

Sunday evening's trading session sees a raft of information published from Japan, the final GDP figure is predicted to come in at 0.4%, with the final GDP price predicted to come in at -0.3%, bank lending should come in at 2% improvement. There is important inflation data published on Sunday regarding China's economy; the CPI is predicted to come in at 3.0% with PPI expected to be in at -1.5%. Monday sees Germany's trade balance published; expected in at €17.4bn positive, Germany's month on month industrial prediction is expected in at 0.8%. The Swiss unemployment rate is predicted to come in at 3.2%, with retail sales up 1.7%. Europe's Sentix index is published with the expectation of a print of 10.5. There are also various Eurogroup meetings held. Monday also sees the UK BoE governor Mark Carney deliver a speech as does a significant person from the FOMC, Mr Bullard. The UK RICS house price balance is expected in at 59% suggesting that 59% of surveyors questioned are witnessing higher house prices in the UK. Japan publishes data on manufacturing index activity, predicted to come in at 17.2, with tertiary activity expected to print at 0.3%. Later that evening Australia's leading confidence index, from the National Australia Bank, is published, the expectation is for a print of circa 5, which is similar to the previous month's print. Australia's home loans figure is expected to come in at 1.3%. The consumer confidence index for Japan is published, expected in at 44.2, up from 42.1 the previous month.

http://blog.fxcc.com/market-analysis

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :

2013-12-09 24h | EU. Eurogroup meeting

2013-12-09 11:00 GMT | EU. Industrial Production n.s.a. w.d.a. (YoY) (Oct)

2013-12-09 13:15 GMT | Canada. Housing Starts s.a (YoY) (Nov)

2013-12-09 21:45 GMT | New Zealand. Electronic Card Retail Sales (YoY) (Nov)

FOREX NEWS :

2013-12-09 06:16 GMT | EUR/USD back in the red and below breakout point of 1.3708 ahead of European session

2013-12-09 04:29 GMT | Gold opens the week on a flat note; 1172 technical target looms

2013-12-09 03:45 GMT | GBP/USD pulling back after touching upside projected target at 1.6425 last week

2013-12-09 01:53 GMT | EUR/JPY off highs but nicely higher for session on “risk on” mood and sluggish Japanese data

---------------------

EURUSD :

HIGH 1.37212 LOW 1.36997 BID 1.37 ASK 1.37002 CHANGE 0% TIME 08 : 44:58

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: EUR/USD is entering the retracement stage on the hourly chart however we see potential for further appreciation towards to our targets at 1.3730 (R2) and 1.3748 (R3) if the price manages to overcome key resistance measure at 1.3712 (R1). Downwards scenario: In terms of technical levels, risk of price depreciation is seen below the next support level at 1.3658 (S1). Loss here would suggest to monitor marks at 1.3640 (S2) and 1.3621 (S3) as possible intraday targets.

Resistance Levels: 1.3712, 1.3730, 1.3748

Support Levels: 1.3658, 1.3640, 1.3621

------------------------

GBPUSD :

HIGH 1.63535 LOW 1.63227 BID 1.63504 ASK 1.63507 CHANGE 0% TIME 08 : 44:58

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Down trend

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Possible upwards formation is limited now to resistive measure at 1.6360 (R1). A break above it would suggest next intraday target at 1.6392 (R2) and if the price holds its momentum we can expect price increase towards to final resistance at 1.6423 (R3). Downwards scenario: Next challenge on the downside is seen at 1.6318 (S1). Breakthrough of this mark would open way for a downside expansion and could possibly trigger our initial targets at 1.6290 (S2) and 1.6266 (R3) later on today.

Resistance Levels: 1.6360, 1.6392, 1.6423

Support Levels: 1.6318, 1.6290, 1.6266

------------------------

USDJPY :

HIGH 103.22 LOW 102.89 BID 103.037 ASK 103.039 CHANGE 0% TIME 08 : 44:58

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Sideway

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Immediate resistance at 103.13 (R1) remains in near-term focus, climb above this level might open way for a stronger move towards to next interim target at 103.29 (R2) and any further rise would then be limited to final resistive measure at 103.46 (R3) . Downwards scenario: Risk of market weakening is seen below the support level at 102.77 (S1). Loss here is required to allow further declines and expose our supportive barrier at 102.62 (S2) en route towards to final target for today at 102.46 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 103.13, 103.29, 103.46

Support Levels: 102.77, 102.62, 102.46

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

alayoua · December 10, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Dec 10 2013

ECOFIN meetings might affect Euro direction, whilst important USA economic data is published in the New York session

Tuesday sees the publication of China's industrial production figures, expected in at 10.2%, retail sales in China are predicted to rise by 13.2%, with fixed asset investment predicted to rise by 20.1% - year on year. In Europe both French and Italian Industrial production figures are published, both expected in at circa 0.2-0.3%. The UK's manufacturing production is expected to fall to 0.4% from the previous month's 1.1%. The UK's trade balance is expected to stay at circa £9.1 bn for the month. The UK's NIESR also publishes its latest data, suggesting that economic activity will be stable at circa 0.7%. In Europe the ECOFIN meetings will take place with Mario Draghi then holding court with a speech discussing the outcomes of the meetings in relation to any policy change, or additions. In the USA there is a raft of information published in the afternoon trading session; the NFIB small business index is published expected in at 92.7. JOLTS job openings are expected in at 3.96 million, with wholesale inventories in the USA expected to shrink to 0.3%. Later in the evening on Tuesday Australia's Westpac consumer confidence index is published, the expectation is for a figure similar to the previous month of 1.9%. Japan publishes its core machinery orders, expected in at 0.9%, up from the previous month's negative print. The corporation inflation number is also printed, expected in at 2.7% year on year. Equity index futures are looking insipid with regards to tomorrow's trading opportunities, the DJIA equity index future is up 0.05%, SPX future up 0.07%, NASDAQ up 0.07%. Looking towards the European open the STOXX future is up 0.34%, DAX up 0.35%, CAC up 0.08% and the FTSE future is up 0.22%. NYMEX WTI oil closed flat on the day on Monday at $97.34 per barrel, NYMEX nat gas closed the day up a significant 2.87% at $4.23 per therm. COMEX gold closed the day up 0.42% at $1234.20 per ounce with silver up 0.91% at $19.70 per ounce. The loonie, as the Canadian dollar is known, rose 0.1 percent to C$1.0627 per U.S. dollar at 5 p.m. in Toronto after falling as much as 0.3 percent. It touched C$1.0708 on Dec. 6th, the weakest since May 2010. One loonie buys 94.10 U.S. cents.

http://blog.fxcc.com/market-analysis

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :

2013-12-10 12:00 GMT | EU. ECB President Draghi's Speech

2013-12-10 15:00 GMT | UK. NIESR GDP Estimate (3M) (Nov)

2013-12-10 23:30 GMT | Australia. Westpac Consumer Confidence (Dec)

2013-12-10 23:50 GMT | Japan. Machinery Orders (YoY) (Oct)

FOREX NEWS :

2013-12-10 05:41 GMT | AUD/USD capped by 0.91/9120 offers cluster

2013-12-10 02:44 GMT | USD/JPY rolling over short-term as traders sell greenback; 103.54 remains key resistance

2013-12-10 02:16 GMT | EUR/USD bursts through 1.3750 barrier

2013-12-10 01:51 GMT | NZD/USD tilting towards 0.83 handle

---------------------

EURUSD :

HIGH 1.37676 LOW 1.37341 BID 1.37498 ASK 1.37501 CHANGE 0% TIME 08 : 52:41

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Up trend

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Next barrier on the upside lie at 1.3768 (R1). Surpassing of this level might enable our initial target at 1.3788 (R2) and any further gains would then be limited to last resistive structure at 1.3806 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, price pattern suggests bearish potential if the instrument manages to overcome next support level at 1.3728 (S1). Possible price regress could expose our initial targets at 1.3706 (S2) and 1.3684 (S3) in potential.

Resistance Levels: 1.3768, 1.3788, 1.3806

Support Levels: 1.3728, 1.3706, 1.3684

-------------------

GBPUSD :

HIGH 1.64657 LOW 1.64186 BID 1.64491 ASK 1.64497 CHANGE 0% TIME 08 : 52:41

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: On the upside potential is seen for a break above the resistance at 1.6465 (R1). In such case we would suggest next target at 1.6493 (R2) and any further rise would then be limited to final resistance at 1.6518 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, successful retest of our next support level at 1.6428 (S1) might provide sufficient momentum for the price acceleration towards to interim target at 1.6403 (S2). Final aim for today locates at 1.6382 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.6465, 1.6493, 1.6518

Support Levels: 1.6428, 1.6403, 1.6382

------------------

USDJPY :

HIGH 103.394 LOW 103.167 BID 103.341 ASK 103.344 CHANGE 0% TIME 08 : 52:41

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: Upside risk aversion is seen above the next resistance level at 103.38 (R1). Appreciation above it might lead to the positive intraday bias formation towards to our next targets at 103.70 (R2) and 104.03 (R3). Downwards scenario: Possible pull back development is limited now to the key supportive barrier at 102.92 (S1). Only loss here would be considered as a beginning of a retracement expansion. Our intraday targets locates at 102.68 (S2) and 102.47 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 103.38, 103.70, 104.03

Support Levels: 102.92, 102.68, 102.47

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

alayoua · December 11, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Dec 11 2013

Could USA oil supplies data cause WTI oil to flirt with the critical $100 a barrel level?

Wednesday sees the publication of USA oil supplies data, expected to print at -5.6 bn barrels, whilst the USA federal budget balance is expected to print at $154.6 bn, significantly worsening from the previous month's figure of $91.6 bn. In New Zealand the cash rate is announced, predicted to stay the same at 2.5%. The press conference, the rate statement and the policy statement will accompany the announcement of the base interest rate, finally later that evening the RBNZ governor Wheeler will conduct a conference. Later Australia will announce the change in unemployment and as a consequence publish the unemployment rate; expected to rise to 5.8% with circa 10K new jobs created. Looking towards equity index futures for Wednesday, the DJIA future is down 0.30%, SPX future down 0.33%, NASDAQ down 0.07%. STOXX is down 0.90%, DAX future down 0.84%, CAC down 1.02%, FTSE future down 0.36%. Commodities enjoyed an improvement through Tuesday's sessions. NYMEX WTI oil up 1.20% at $98.51 per barrel, NYMEX nat gas up 0.12% at $4.24 per therm, COMEX gold enjoyed a significant bounce, up 2.18% at $1261.10 per ounce with silver at $201.41 up 3.60% on the day. The euro rose 0.2 percent to $1.3761 late in New York after reaching $1.3795, the strongest since Oct. 29th. The six straight increases were the most since the seven days ending Dec. 18th, 2012. The common currency fell 0.3 percent to 141.53 yen after climbing to 142.17, the highest since October 2008. The dollar fell 0.4 percent to 102.85 yen. The U.S. Dollar Index, tracking the U.S. currency versus its 10 major counterparts, dropped 0.3 percent to 1,012.57, reaching the lowest level since Nov. 1st. The Swiss franc advanced by 0.2 percent to 1.22169 per euro in London's afternoon session after appreciating to 1.22065, the strongest level since May 2nd. The currency rose for a sixth day versus the dollar, gaining 0.4 percent to 88.66 centimes per dollar. The Swiss franc advanced to the strongest level in seven months against the euro as investors weighed improving economic data before the nation’s central bank meets this week.

http://blog.fxcc.com/market-analysis

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :

2013-12-11 12:00 GMT | USA. MBA Mortgage Applications (Dec 6)

2013-12-11 15:00 GMT | USA. Treasury Sec Lew Speech

2013-12-11 19:00 GMT | USA. Monthly Budget Statement (Nov)

2013-12-11 20:00 GMT | New Zealand. Monetary Policy Statement

FOREX NEWS :

2013-12-11 06:10 GMT | EUR/USD reaches up to 1.3791 Fibo target and finally relents – for now

2013-12-11 03:48 GMT | AUD/USD stuck in the intraday doldrums after sluggish consumer confidence

2013-12-11 03:37 GMT | USD/JPY projected circa 106.00 by Q4 2014 - JPMorgan

2013-12-11 02:26 GMT | GBP/USD pausing after less-than-convincing breakout above 1.6442 previous resistance

---------------------

EURUSD :

HIGH 1.37654 LOW 1.37468 BID 1.37578 ASK 1.37583 CHANGE 0% TIME 08 : 35:58

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Up trend

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: We expect consolidation development after the initial uptrend formation on the hourly chart frame though possible bullish penetration might face next challenge at 1.3775 (R1). Break here is required to establish further bullish pressure, targeting 1.3789 (R2) en route towards to last resistance for today at 1.3806 (R3). Downwards scenario: Further correction development is limited now to the session low - 1.3728 (S1). If the price manages to surpass it we would suggest next intraday targets at 1.3706 (S2) and 1.3684 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3775, 1.3789, 1.3806

Support Levels: 1.3728, 1.3706, 1.3684

-----------------

GBPUSD :

HIGH 1.64579 LOW 1.64306 BID 1.64332 ASK 1.64335 CHANGE 0% TIME 08 : 35:58

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Sideway

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: Market having failed to establish directional movement yesterday. Possible price strengthening might arise above the next resistance level at 1.6465 (R1). Our interim target holds at 1.6493 (R2) en route toward to our major aim at 1.6518 (R3). Downwards scenario: We would shift our short-term technical outlook to the negative if the price manage to penetrate below the key support at 1.6421 (S1). Loss here would suggest next initial targets at 1.6403 (S2) and 1.6382 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.6465, 1.6493, 1.6518

Support Levels: 1.6421, 1.6403, 1.6382

-------------------

USDJPY :

HIGH 102.948 LOW 102.574 BID 102.732 ASK 102.734 CHANGE 0% TIME 08 : 35:58

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Sideway

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: Pair has settled sideways formation on the hourly timeframe. However potential to move higher is seen above the resistance level at 102.93 (R1) mark. Loss here would suggest next intraday targets at 103.15 (R2) and 103.38 (R3). Downwards scenario: Penetration below the support at 102.65 (S1) is liable to put more downward pressure on the instrument in the near-term perspective. As a result our supportive means at 102.47 (S2) and 102.30 (S3) might be triggered.

Resistance Levels: 102.93, 103.15, 103.38

Support Levels: 102.65, 102.47, 102.30

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

alayoua · December 12, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Dec 12 2013

Markets sell of due to 'taper' rumours, will better than expected unemployment numbers raise a seasonal cheer?

Thursday Mario Draghi speaks, whilst the Swiss publish their monetary policy intentions and assessment with the Libor rate also published. The Swiss bank head Jordan will also hold a conference; the ECB will publish the latest monetary policy in the form of a monthly bulletin. European industrial production is expected to rise to 0.4% from the previous month's fall of -0.5%. In the USA core retail sales data is published, expected in at 0.2%, with retail sales up 0.6%. Unemployment claims are expected in at circa 321K after the surprise fall last week of 289K. Import prices in the USA are expected to fall to -0.7% (month on month). Canada's central bank governor Poloz speaks late on Thursday, whilst the business New Zealand index is published, expected to be similar to the previous month's print of 55.7, whilst Japan's revised industrial production is expected in at 0.5%, identical to the previous month's print. NYMEX WTI oil closed down on Wednesday by 1.13%, at $97.41 per barrel, with NYMEX nat gas closing up 2.43% on the day at $4.34 per therm. WTI advanced 5.3 percent last week, the most in five months, as U.S. crude inventories fell for the first time in 11 weeks and TransCanada Corp. announced plans to start part of its Keystone pipeline to the Gulf Coast from Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for NYMEX futures. COMEX gold closed down 0.61% at $1253.40 per ounce with silver at $20.28 down 0.17% on the day. The DJIA equity index future is (at the time of writing) down 0.89%, SPX down 1.24% NASDAQ down 1.31%. Looking towards Europe's open the STOXX 50 future is down 0.61%, DAX future is down 0.54%, CAC future is down 0.34%, FTSE future down 0.81%.

http://blog.fxcc.com/market-analysis

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :

2013-12-12 09:00 GMT | EU. ECB Monthly Report

2013-12-12 09:00 GMT | Switzerland. SNB press conference

2013-12-12 13:30 GMT | USA. Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov)

2013-12-12 18:05 GMT | Canada. BoC Governor Poloz Speech

FOREX NEWS :

2013-12-12 02:49 GMT | Gold sees a little downside Wednesday; 1268.30 remains resistance

2013-12-12 01:19 GMT | USD/JPY heading to the 100 handle?

2013-12-12 00:41 GMT | AUD/USD spikes

2013-12-12 00:20 GMT | GBP/USD posts bearish reversal candle Wednesday. Could it have a date with 1.6250?

------------------

EURUSD :

HIGH 1.37981 LOW 1.37731 BID 1.37889 ASK 1.37892 CHANGE 0% TIME 08 : 38:32

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Up trend

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Possibility of market strengthening is seen above the immediate resistive barrier at 1.3806 (R1). Price extension above it is required to validate our next intraday targets at 1.3832 (R2) and 1.3860 (R3). Downwards scenario: While instrument trades above the moving averages, our short-term bias would stay positive though penetration below the support level at 1.3757 (S1) might open way towards to lower targets at 1.3728 (S2) and 1.3706 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3806, 1.3832, 1.3860

Support Levels: 1.3757, 1.3728, 1.3706

---------------------

GBPUSD :

HIGH 1.638 LOW 1.63533 BID 1.63654 ASK 1.63659 CHANGE 0% TIME 08 : 38:32

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Sideway

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: Market descended, however price appreciation might be possible above the next resistance level at 1.6398 (R1). Break here is required to enable next attractive points at 1.6428 (R2) and 1.6465 (R3). Downwards scenario: Next support level is seen at 1.6346 (S1), any penetration below it might activate downside pressure and enable lower target at 1.6319 (S2). Any further market decline would then be limited to 1.6290 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.6398, 1.6428, 1.6465

Support Levels: 1.6346, 1.6319, 1.6290

-----------------------

USDJPY :

HIGH 102.754 LOW 102.387 BID 102.649 ASK 102.651 CHANGE 0% TIME 08 : 38:32

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Sideway

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: Any upside actions looks limited to resistance level at 102.93 (R1). Surpassing of this level might enable next target at 103.15 (R2) and any further gains would then be targeting final mark at 103.38 (R3) in potential. Downwards scenario: On the downside our attention is shifted to the immediate support level at 102.30 (S1). Break here is required to enable bearish forces and expose our intraday targets at 102.10 (S2) and 101.92 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 102.93, 103.15, 103.38

Support Levels: 102.30, 102.10, 101.92

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

alayoua · December 13, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Dec 13 2013

Aussie dollar sells off after RBA governor sets a target to devalue the Aussie

Friday sees the production of the German WPI, wholesale production inflation expected to be at 0.4% month on month, Swiss producer inflation is expected in at 0.3%, whilst employment change in Europe is expected to remain flat. USA core PPI is published on Friday, expected to be flat, with core PPI expected at 0.1% The DJIA closed down 0.66% on Thursday, the SPX down 0.38% and the NASDAQ down 0.14%. European markets also closed in the red; STOXX down 0.65%, CAC down 0.43%, DAX down 0.66% UK FTSE down 0.97%. Equity index futures are, at the time of writing, pointing to a negative opening in Europe on Friday and the USA. The DJIA equity index future is down 0.69%, SPX down 0.33%, the NASDAQ future down 0.30%. European futures are also down sharply; STOXX down 0.68%, DAX future down 0.70%, CAC future down 0.43% with the FTSE future down 1.15%. Commodities closed the day mainly downing Thursday; NYMEX WTI oil down 0.05% at $97.39 per barrel, NYMEX nat gas closed up 0.90% at $4.38 per therm due to storage data being below expectations. COMEX gold sold off sharply to close the day down 2.56% at $1225.00 per ounce, with silver on COMEX down a substantial 4.25% at $19.49 per ounce. The greenback gained 0.2 percent to $1.3753 per euro after falling to $1.3811 Wednesday, its lowest level since Oct. 29th. The U.S. currency climbed 0.9 percent to 103.38 yen, the strongest level since May 23rd. Japan’s currency slipped 0.7 percent to 142.18 yen per euro.

http://blog.fxcc.com/market-analysis

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :

2013-12-13 10:00 GMT | EU. Employment Change (YoY) (Q3)

2013-12-13 13:00 GMT | Poland. Consumer Price Index (MoM) (Nov)

2013-12-13 13:30 GMT | USA. Producer Price Index (YoY) (Nov)

2013-12-13 13:30 GMT | USA. Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) (Nov)

FOREX NEWS :

2013-12-13 04:08 GMT | EUR/JPY just above 142.62 3rd wave resistance; possible 4th wave target 138.65

2013-12-13 03:55 GMT | USD/JPY sets fresh 2013 highs

2013-12-13 02:32 GMT | AUD/USD correcting higher after Thursday's selling hysteria

2013-12-13 00:39 GMT | EUR/USD posts bearish reversal candle Thursday – may be time for a pullback

-------------------

EURUSD

HIGH 1.37596 LOW 1.37421 BID 1.37497 ASK 1.37503 CHANGE 0% TIME 08 : 36:44

OUTLOOK SUMMARY Down

TREND CONDITION Downward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Short- term tendency is bearish as both moving averages are pointing down. Though risk of market strengthening is seen above the resistance level at 1.3777 (R1). Clearance here would open way towards to next targets at 1.3792 (R2) and 1.3806 (R3). Downwards scenario: A break of the support at 1.3739 (S1) is required to determine negative intraday bias and enable lower target at 1.3723 (S2). Clearance of this target would open a path towards to final support for today at 1.3706 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3777, 1.3792, 1.3806

Support Levels: 1.3739, 1.3723, 1.3706

----------------

GBPUSD :

HIGH 1.636 LOW 1.63328 BID 1.63431 ASK 1.63439 CHANGE 0% TIME 08 : 36:44

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Sideway

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Rise above the resistance at 1.6369 (R1) might provide sufficient space for the appreciation towards to next target at 1.6384 (R2). Further market increase above it would then face final resistive structure at 1.6398 (R3). Downwards scenario: If the price manages to overcome our next support barrier at 1.6319 (S1), we expect to see further market decline towards to our next target at 1.6304 (S2) and then next stop could be found at 1.6290 (S3) mark.

Resistance Levels: 1.6369, 1.6384, 1.6398

Support Levels: 1.6319, 1.6304, 1.6290

---------------------------

USDJPY :

HIGH 103.921 LOW 103.355 BID 103.728 ASK 103.732 CHANGE -0.01% TIME 08 : 36:44

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Up trend

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Possibility of price progress is seen above the next resistance level at 103.91 (R1). Breakthrough here would suggest our interim target at 104.18 (R2) and then mark at 104.41 (R3) acts as last resistive measure for today. Downwards scenario: On a slightly longer term we expect pullback formation. Risk of market depreciation is seen below the next support level at 103.46 (S1). Clearance here would suggest lower targets at 103.24 (S2) and 103.06 (S3) in potential.

Resistance Levels: 103.91, 104.18, 104.41

Support Levels: 103.46, 103.24, 103.06

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

alayoua · December 16, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Dec 16 2013

All eyes on the FOMC meeting later this week, whilst Markit Economics PMIs also take centre stage

Sunday evening witnesses the publication of the Westpac consumer sentiment survey for New Zealand, the previous print came in at 115.4, the anticipation is for a similar result. The Japanese Tankan manufacturing index is published late Sunday evening, predictions are for a figure of 15, up from the previous month's figure of 12. The non-manufacturing Tankan index is also published, expected in at 16 from the previous print of 12. In the UK the Rightmove asking house price index is published, in the previous month asking prices fell by 2.4% therefore an improvement is expected. The Chinese HSBC flash manufacturing index is published late Sunday evening with the expectations that a small rise from 50.5 to 51 will be witnessed. Monday sees the publication of French flash PMI manufacturing and services data courtesy of Markit economics; both indices are expected to rise, manufacturing to 49.1, services to 48.9. Germany's twin PMI Markit gauges are also published; manufacturing predicted in at 53.1 services at 55.2. Finally Europe's are published with manufacturing predicted in at 51.9 with services at 51.5. Europe's trade balance published Monday is expected in at €15.2 bn, meanwhile the Bundesbank's tentative monthly survey is published. In the USA we witness the publication of the Empire State manufacturing survey, last month saw a surprise fall to -2.2%, a restoration of positive data is expected, with the print potentially coming in at 4.9. Flash Markit manufacturing PMI is published for the USA, expected in at 54.9, whilst industrial production is expected to rise by 0.6% from the previous month's figure of -0.1%. The ECB president Mario Draghi speaks mid-afternoon European time on Monday, the expectation is that he'll cover the subjects of: the strength of the euro, countries such as Ireland moving out of various bailout imposed austerity measures, interest rate reductions, European banking union and the potential for quantitative easing - through a bond buying programme.

http://blog.fxcc.com/market-analysis

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :

2013-12-16 13:58 GMT | USA. Markit Manufacturing PMI (Dec)Preliminar

2013-12-16 14:00 GMT | EU. ECB President Draghi's Speech

2013-12-16 14:00 GMT | USA. Net Long-Term TIC Flows (Oct)

2013-12-16 14:15 GMT | USA. US Industrial Production (MoM) (Nov)

FOREX NEWS :

2013-12-13 22:14 GMT | Session recap: Dollar extends the swing ahead FOMC

2013-12-13 21:58 GMT | AUD/USD, stay bearish?

2013-12-13 21:42 GMT | EUR/CAD a sure sell?

2013-12-13 21:25 GMT | GBP/JPY ending the week on the back foot

EURUSD :

HIGH 1.3761 LOW 1.37287 BID 1.3756 ASK 1.37564 CHANGE 0% TIME 08 : 40:51

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Medium term bias tends to slide into the bearish side. Further market rise is limited now to the key resistive barrier at 1.3777 (R1), clearance here is required to enable next resistances at 1.3792 (R2) and last one at 1.3806 (R3). Downwards scenario: Risk of market decline is seen below the next support level at 1.3737 (S1). Loss here might downgrade currency rate towards to the next supportive means at 1.3723 (S2) and 1.3706 (S3) in potential.

Resistance Levels: 1.3777, 1.3792, 1.3806

Support Levels: 1.3737, 1.3723, 1.3706

--------------------

GBPUSD :

HIGH 1.63095 LOW 1.62871 BID 1.63069 ASK 1.63075 CHANGE 0% TIME 08 : 40:51

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Down trend

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: Even though instrument trades above the moving averages, it keeps immediate downside potential. Next hurdle is seen at 1.6314 (R1), break above it might extend gains towards to next targets at 1.6333 (R2) and 1.6353 (R3). Downwards scenario: Possible downside extension might face next supportive barrier at 1.6290 (S1). Clearance here is required to open the way towards to our initial support at 1.6268 (S2) and any further price regress would then be limited to final support at 1.6246 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.6314, 1.6333, 1.6353

Support Levels: 1.6290, 1.6268, 1.6246

----------------------

USDJPY :

HIGH 103.291 LOW 102.643 BID 102.821 ASK 102.827 CHANGE 0% TIME 08 : 40:51

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: Further uptrend evolvement is limited now to the local high at 102.92 (R1). Break here is required to enable higher targets at 103.08 (R2) and 103.28 (R3). Downwards scenario: Price regress below the support level at 102.65 (S1) would increase likelihood of failing towards to our key supportive barrier at 102.51 (S2) and any further market decline would then be targeting final support for today at 102.35 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 102.92, 103.08, 103.28

Support Levels: 102.65, 102.51, 102.35

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

alayoua · December 18, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Dec 18 2013

All eyes on the last FOMC meeting of 2013, expect taper speculation to reach fever pitch

Wednesday sees the publication of the German IFO business climate index, expected in at 109.7. The UK publishes its latest claimant count figures, predicted to be down 35.2 K month on month. The expected percentage unemployment claimant count is expected in at 7.6%. The UK's BoE MPC reveals the votes on interest rate setting and quantitative easing both expected in as unanimous votes. ECONFIN meetings continue through the week, whilst the Swiss ZEW sentiment index is published. In the afternoon session attention turns to the USA data, housing starts data is predicted in at 0.91 million year on year, whilst crude oil inventories might have the capacity to shock again with the previous week's figure coming in -10.6 m barrels. Then attention turns to the FOMC and the expected news regarding the potential taper, the Fed's base rate decision will be announced expected to remain at 0.25%, thereafter the FOMC will deliver an explanatory statement and deliver their economic projections. The DJIA closed down marginally by 0.06% at 15875 on Tuesday, SPX down 0.31%, NASDAQ by 0.14%. European indices suffered a sharp selloff over the two trading sessions on Tuesday; STOXX 50 down 1.24%, CAC down 1.24%, DAX down 0.86%, FTSE down 0.55%. The DJIA equity index future is down 0.08% at the time of writing (10:00pm UK time), the SPX future is down 0.42%, NASDAQ down 0.27%. STOXX future is down 0.97%, DAX future down 0.62%, CAC future down 1.00%, FTSE future down 0.33%. NYMEX WTI oil is down 0.38% on the day at $97.11 per barrel, NYMEX nat gas is up 0.02%, COMEX gold sold off sharply by 1.15% at $1230.10 per ounce, silver on COMEX is down 1.02% at $19.90 per ounce. The dollar slipped 0.3 percent to 102.67 yen mid-afternoon New York time Tuesday, after touching 103.92 yen on Dec. 13th, the strongest level since October 2008. It was little changed at $1.3768 per euro. The 17-nation common currency fell 0.3 percent to 141.36 yen. The dollar traded at almost a five-year high versus the yen as the Federal Reserve begins a two-day meeting that may will result in a reduction of currency-debasing stimulus. The Aussie fell 0.4 percent to NZ$1.0773 after earlier touching the weakest since October 2008. It was 0.5 percent weaker at 88.98 U.S. cents. The Aussie dollar fell to a five-year low versus New Zealand’s currency as the Reserve Bank of Australia said in minutes of its most recent meeting that it maintained the option to cut interest rates. The pound fell for a fifth day versus the dollar on Tuesday after a government report showed U.K. consumer-price inflation unexpectedly slowed in November to the lowest level in four years. Sterling declined 0.2 percent to $1.6267.

http://blog.fxcc.com/market-analysis

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :

2013-12-18 09:30 GMT | UK. Claimant Count Change (Oct)

2013-12-18 09:30 GMT | UK. ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) (Oct)

2013-12-18 19:00 GMT | US. Fed Interest Rate Decision

2013-12-18 19:30 GMT | US. Fed's Monetary Policy Statement and press conference

FOREX NEWS :

2013-12-18 04:25 GMT | USD/JPY hits 103.00 on high-volume Nikkei 225 rally

2013-12-18 02:31 GMT | GBP/USD on the rise ahead of the Fed; 1.6317 is ST “correction resistance”

2013-12-18 01:40 GMT | AUD/USD: Rally finds resistance at 0.8930

2013-12-18 01:06 GMT | EUR/JPY surges from weekly lows

------------------

EURUSD :

HIGH 1.37748 LOW 1.37627 BID 1.37709 ASK 1.37714 CHANGE 0% TIME 08 : 36:08

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Sideway

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Market having failed to establish directional movement yesterday. Possible price strengthening might arise above the next resistance level at 1.3792 (R1). Our interim target holds at 1.3814 (R2) en route toward to our major aim at 1.3832 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, price pattern suggests bearish potential if the instrument manages to overcome next support level at 1.3746 (S1). Possible price regress could expose our initial targets at 1.3729 (S2) and 1.3709 (S3) in potential.

Resistance Levels: 1.3792, 1.3814, 1.3832

Support Levels: 1.3746, 1.3729, 1.3709

----------------

GBPUSD :

HIGH 1.62888 LOW 1.6262 BID 1.62839 ASK 1.62846 CHANGE 0% TIME 08 : 36:08

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Down trend

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: Medium-term negative bias pressure the price lower however instrument might find buyers above the resistance level at 1.6309 (R1). Break here might open route towards to our initial targets at 1.6333 (R2) and 1.6353 (R3). Downwards scenario: Risk of market weakening is seen below the support level at 1.6260 (S1). Loss here is required to allow further declines and expose our supportive barrier at 1.6244 (S2) en route towards to final target for today at 1.6228 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.6309, 1.6333, 1.6353

Support Levels: 1.6260, 1.6244, 1.6228

------------------

USDJPY :

HIGH 103.034 LOW 102.564 BID 102.954 ASK 102.958 CHANGE 0.01% TIME 08 : 36:08

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: A violation of next resistance at 103.11 (R1) might call for a run towards to next target at 103.28 (R2) and any further appreciation would then be limited to final target at 103.42 (R3). Downwards scenario: Neutral market structure might lose its power if the price manages to overcome next support level at 102.64 (S1). Any penetration below this level might determine medium-term negative bias and expose our intraday targets at 102.46 (S2) and 102.24 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 103.11, 103.28, 103.42

Support Levels: 102.64, 102.46, 102.24

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

alayoua · December 19, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Dec 19 2013

After the USA FOMC taper tantrum focus now shifts back to key fundamentals such as the USA claimant count

Thursday we receive data on Europe's balance of payments which is predicted to print at €14.2 billion positive. Retail sales in the UK are predicted to come in at 0.3% up on the month. USA unemployment claims are predicted in at 336K, down from 368K, existing home sales are predicted in at 5.04 million annual rate, a slight seasonal fall from the previous month. The Philly Fed manufacturing index is predicted to come in at 10.3, significantly up from 6.5 the previous month. Natural gas storage data is printed for the USA. Last week was down -81bn. Late evening Japan publishes its monetary policy statement and the Bank of Japan holds a press conference. The U.S. Dollar Index, which monitors the greenback versus its 10 major counterparts, gained 0.5 percent to 1.021.53 late in New York Wednesday. The greenback added 1.4 percent to 104.12 yen, the highest level since Oct. 6, 2008. The U.S. currency advanced 0.6 percent to $1.3685 versus Europe’s 17-nation euro. The dollar rose to a five-year high versus the yen after the Federal Reserve officials voted to reduce monthly asset purchases that are seen as debasing the U.S. currency amidst signs that economic growth is strengthening. The DJIA closed up 1.84% on Wednesday, a new record high at 16167, the SPX closed up 1.66% and the NASDAQ up 1.15%. In Europe STOXX closed up 1.13%, CAC up 1.00%, DAX up 1.06% and the FTSE up 0.09%. Looking towards Thursday the equity index future for the DJIA is up 1.89%, SPX up 1.79%, NASDAQ future up 1.38%. Euro STOXX equity index future is up 0.88%, DAX up 0.88%, CAC up 0.97%, FTSE up 0.02%. NYMEX WTI oil closed the day up 0.60% at $97.80 per barrel, NASDAQ nat gas down 0.30% at $4.27 per therm, COMEX gold up 0.40% at $1235.00 per ounce with silver on COMEX down 0.66% at $19.71 per ounce.

http://blog.fxcc.com/market-analysis

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :

2013-12-19 09:30 GMT | UK. Retail Sales (YoY) (Nov)

2013-12-19 13:30 GMT | US. Initial Jobless Claims (Dec 13)

2013-12-19 14:00 GMT | Switzerland. SNB Quarterly Bulletin (Q3)

2013-12-19 15:00 GMT | US. Existing Home Sales Change (MoM) (Nov)

FOREX NEWS :

2013-12-19 05:34 GMT | GBP/AUD remains at multi-year highs just above 1.8500; next long-term target is 1.9670

2013-12-19 05:17 GMT | EUR/USD extends bearish bias, 1.3615 support eyed

2013-12-19 04:47 GMT | EUR/JPY pulling back early Thursday after big up day Wednesday; next upside target 145.76

2013-12-19 03:11 GMT | GBP/USD may have completed 5th wave higher Wednesday at 1.6483; 1st pullback target 1.6089

EURUSD :

HIGH 1.36939 LOW 1.36493 BID 1.36744 ASK 1.36747 CHANGE 0.01% TIME 08 : 37:24

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: EUR extended its decline versus the USD and determined negative short-term technical outlook. However above the resistance at 1.3697 (R1) opens a route towards to next resistive measures at 1.3715 (R2) and 1.3731 (R3). Downwards scenario: Next support level is seen at 1.3656 (S1), any penetration below it might activate downside pressure and enable lower target at 1.3634 (S2). Any further market decline would then be limited to 1.3615 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3697, 1.3715, 1.3731

Support Levels: 1.3656, 1.3634, 1.3615

-----------------

GBPUSD :

HIGH 1.63972 LOW 1.63656 BID 1.63763 ASK 1.63768 CHANGE 0% TIME 08 : 37:24

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: The possibility of an upside price progress is seen above the resistance level at 1.6391 (R1). Evaluation above this mark might initiate bullish pressure and expose medium-term interim targets at 1.6408 (R2) and 1.6424 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the short-term perspective the pair might encounter supportive measures at 1.6353 (S1). Loss here might change intraday technical structure and opens the way for a test of 1.6337 (S2) and 1.6324 (S3) later on today.

Resistance Levels: 1.6391, 1.6408, 1.6424

Support Levels: 1.6353, 1.6337, 1.6324

------------------

USDJPY :

HIGH 104.363 LOW 103.782 BID 104.006 ASK 104.009 CHANGE 0.01% TIME 08 : 37:24

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Up trend

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Upside risk aversion is seen above the next resistance level at 104.36 (R1). Appreciation above it might lead to the positive intraday bias formation towards to our next targets at 104.60 (R2) and 104.83 (R3). Downwards scenario: On a slightly longer term we expect pullback formation. Risk of market depreciation is seen below the next support level at 103.83 (S1). Clearance here would suggest lower targets at 103.54 (S2) and 103.24 (S3) in potential.

Resistance Levels: 104.36, 104.60, 104.83

Support Levels: 103.83, 103.54, 103.24

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( ECN Forex Broker | ECN Forex Trading Platform | Foreign Currency Exchange | Best Currency Online Trading | FXCC )

alayoua · December 20, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Dec 20 2013

USA final GDP data for 2013 published expectation at 3.6% annually, as UK current account data is expected to worsen

Friday sees the publication of German PPI for the month, predicted to come in flat with the German GfK business climate expected in at 7.4. The UK's current account data is expected to worsen at -13.8 bn, with public sector borrowing predicted to remain steady at £6.6 bn and final GDP expected in at 0.8%. Core data for Canada includes CPI predicted to come in at 0.1% with retail sales expected to be flat and CPI expected in up 0.2%. The USA final GDP data is predicted to show growth of 3.6% annually. Europe's consumer confidence is predicted to come on at -15 whilst the last high impact news event of the week sees the nomination vote for Fed chairman. The DJIA closed up marginally by 0.07% on Thursday, the SPX closed down 0.06% and NASDAQ down 0.29%. European markets played catch up with the bullish momentum move post the Fed's taper decision on Wednesday; STOXX closed up 1.88%, CAC up 1.64%, DAX up 1.68%, FTSE up 1.43%. Looking towards Friday's open; the DJIA equity index future is up 0.02%, SPX future down 0.17%, NASDAQ future down 0.45%. Euro STOXX equity index future is up 1.78%, DAX future up 1.56%, CAC future up 1.66%, FTSE up 1.52%. NYMEX WTI oil rose 0.99% to $98.77 per barrel on Thursday, NYMEX nat gas rose a significant 4.52% to $4.44 per therm due to storage capacity concerns. COMEX gold experienced a significant sell off, down 3.69% on the day to $1189.40 per ounce. COMEX silver closed down on the day 4.11% at $19.24 per ounce. The dollar rose 0.2 percent to $1.3655 per euro mid-afternoon Thursday New York time after advancing to $1.3650, the strongest level since Dec. 6th. The U.S. currency dropped 0.1 percent to 104.21 yen. The yen gained 0.3 percent to 142.29 per euro after sliding to 142.90 yesterday, the weakest level since October 2008. The dollar climbed to the strongest level in almost two weeks against the euro as investors assess Federal Reserve plans to wind down bond-buying next year amid signs that economic growth is gaining momentum. The U.S. currency advanced versus most of its 16 major counterparts after the Federal Open Market Committee said yesterday it would slow monetary stimulus to $75 billion a month from $85 billion.

http://blog.fxcc.com/market-analysis

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :

2013-12-20 09:30 GMT | UK. Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (Q3)

2013-12-20 13:30 GMT | Canada. Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) (Nov)

2013-12-20 13:30 GMT | US. Gross Domestic Product Annualized (Q3)

2013-12-20 n/a | US. Fed Chairman Nomination Vote

FOREX NEWS :

2013-12-20 06:16 GMT | EUR/USD extends decline to 2 week low

2013-12-20 05:45 GMT | EUR/GBP continues to slide Friday ahead of data; 0.8299 is next support

2013-12-20 04:11 GMT | USD/JPY holds at 5-year highs after BoJ

2013-12-20 03:46 GMT | AUD/NZD back on the downside after Thursday bounce; downtrend intact with target of 1.0560

EURUSD :

HIGH 1.3667 LOW 1.36253 BID 1.36362 ASK 1.36365 CHANGE 0% TIME 08 : 43:59

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: EUR/USD maintained a negative near-term tone though recovery action is possible above the next visible resistance at 1.3663 (R1). Clearance here might initiate bullish pressure and validate our next targets at 1.3678 (R2) and 1.3691 (R3). Downwards scenario: Yesterday session low offers key supportive barrier at 1.3631 (S1). Break here might provide sufficient momentum on the downside and expose our intraday targets at 1.3615 (S2) and 1.3600 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3663, 1.3678, 1.3691

Support Levels: 1.3631, 1.3615, 1.3600

----------------

GBPUSD :

HIGH 1.63722 LOW 1.63502 BID 1.63527 ASK 1.63529 CHANGE 0.01% TIME 08 : 43:59

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Sideway

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: Possible upwards formation is limited now to resistive measure at 1.6391 (R1). A break above it would suggest next intraday target at 1.6408 (R2) and if the price holds its momentum we can expect price increase towards to final resistance at 1.6424 (R3). Downwards scenario: Next support level is seen at 1.6351 (S1), any penetration below it might activate downside pressure and enable lower target at 1.6337 (S2). Any further market decline would then be limited to 1.6324 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.6391, 1.6408, 1.6424

Support Levels: 1.6351, 1.6337, 1.6324

------------------

USDJPY :

HIGH 104.591 LOW 104.213 BID 104.44 ASK 104.442 CHANGE 0% TIME 08 : 43:59

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Up trend

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Market sentiment has improved for the bullish oriented traders. Fresh high formed today offers key resistance level at 104.60 (R1). In case of price appreciation above it our focus would be shifted to the higher targets at 104.83 (R2) and 105.05 (R3). Downwards scenario: Medium-term bias is clearly positive however possible progress below the initial support level at 104.09 (S1) might expose our intraday targets at 103.83 (S2) and then 103.54 (S3) in perspective.

Resistance Levels: 104.60, 104.83, 105.05

Support Levels: 104.09, 103.83, 103.54

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

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