Daily Forex Analysis from FXCC

alayoua · September 6, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Sep 06 2013

ECB's Draghi reiterates forward guidance on rates

At the press conference following the ECB Governing Council's decision to keep interest rates unchanged at 0.5% in September, president Mario Draghi reiterated that key interest rates would remain at the current or lower levels for an extended period of time.He stressed that economic activity in the Eurozone is improving, as confidence indicators show, and that the ECB is ready to support the recovery with its accommodative monetary policy. Current geopolitical tensions are one of the main threats to the recovery, he said. Inflation in the Eurozone is low and should remain at this level in the coming months. Upside risks on inflation are connected with higher indirect taxes and commodity prices, while downside risks stem from weaker growth. The ECB has risen its Eurozone 2013 growth forecast to -0.4% from -0.6% and lowered the projection for 2014 to 1% from 1.1%. As far as inflation is concerned, the forecast for 2013 was hiked to 1.5% from 1.4% this year and left unchanged at 1.3% for 2014. Mario Draghi also stressed the importance of setting up the banking union quickly, as "weak loan dynamics continue to reflect the current state of the business cycle."

http://blog.fxcc.com/market-analysis

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :

2013-09-06 08:30 GMT | UK. Consumer Inflation Expectations

2013-09-06 12:30 GMT | US. Nonfarm Payrolls (Aug)

2013-09-06 12:30 GMT | CA. Unemployment Rate (Aug)

2013-09-06 14:00 GMT | Uk. NIESR GDP Estimate (3M) (Aug)

FOREX NEWS :

2013-09-06 05:29 GMT | USD/JPY close to 100.00 area ahead of NFP

2013-09-06 04:17 GMT | USD eases in Asia ahead of NFP; Yen strengthens

2013-09-06 03:57 GMT | Technicians need gold to break 1,351.60 to validate bearish call

2013-09-06 02:51 GMT | Sell EUR/USD into 1.3150, TP 1.3090 ahead of NFP - JPMorgan

EURUSD :

HIGH 1.31384 LOW 1.31161 BID 1.31310 ASK 1.31315 CHANGE 0.09% TIME 08 : 50:06

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: On the upside, fractals level at 1.3156 (R1) offers an important resistive structure. Any penetration above that level would suggest next intraday targets at 1.3179 (R2) and 1.3202 (R3). Downwards scenario: As long as price stays below the 20 SMA our technical outlook would be negative. Extension lower the key support level at 1.3110 (S1) is being able to drive market price towards to our next targets at 1.3087 (S2) and 1.3065 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3156, 1.3179, 1.3202

Support Levels: 1.3110, 1.3087, 1.3065

------------------

GBPUSD :

HIGH 1.56133 LOW 1.55862 BID 1.56054 ASK 1.56059 CHANGE 0.1% TIME 08 : 50:07

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Neutral

TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: GBPUSD stabilized on the hourly chart however appreciation above the next resistance at 1.5627 (R1) might be a good catalyst for an upwards formation towards to next targets at 1.5647 (R2) and 1.5666 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, new phase of retracement formation might commence below the important support level at 1.5572 (S1). Break here is required to validate our targets at 1.5552 (S2) and 1.5531 (S3) later on today.

Resistance Levels: 1.5327, 1.5647, 1.5666

Support Levels: 1.5572, 1.5552, 1.5531

-----------------

USDJPY :

HIGH 100.225 LOW 99.695 BID 99.735 ASK 99.739 CHANGE -0.37% TIME 08 : 50:07

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: Upside risk aversion is seen above the next resistance level at 100.15 (R1). Appreciation above it might lead to the positive intraday bias formation towards to our next targets at 100.44 (R2) and 100.73 (R3) in potential. Downwards scenario: Any downside extension is limited now to the next support level at 99.56 (S1). Below here we see potential for the price regress towards to next targets at 99.29 (S2) and 99.00 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 100.15, 100.44, 100.73

Support Levels: 99.56, 99.29, 99.00

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

alayoua · September 9, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Sep 09 2013

EUR/USD higher in early Europe after rising on Friday but still gets no love from ECB

The EUR/USD opened higher the week after having dropped for a second week in a row. Elaborating on, the single currency managed to have a “green” day on Friday due to dismal NFP data, but still closed the week lower against the greenback for a second consecutive week, partly on Draghi’s more than expected dovish stance. ECB Draghi seems to remain very cautious about the Euro zone return to growth and not much enthusiastic about recovery in the Euro land. On the opposite side, despite the dismal NFP, the consensus in the market is for the Fed to announce the commencement of gradual tapering in the meeting of 17th and 18th of September. Traders should bear into consideration the Sentix Investor Confidence which will be released at 8.30 GMT hours and a further improvement in sentiment is anticipated.

As long as the view for tapering remains “on”, any potential EUR/USD rallies will be well capped. Despite the great disappointment on Friday’s NFP release, hints from the Fed points to tapering, even in a small gradual scale such as of $15bililion/$20 billion per month. What’s more, the power-horse of Europe as well depicted in the industrial figures released last week, isn’t strong enough. There are political problems in coalition forces in Italy, a third bailout package in Greece seems inevitable and there is also political uncertainty in Cyprus.

http://blog.fxcc.com/market-analysis

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :

2013-09-09 08:30 GMT | EMU Sentix Investor Confidence (Aug)

2013-09-09 12:30 GMT | CA Building Permits (MoM) (Jul)

2013-09-09 19:00 GMT | US Consumer Credit Change (Jul)

2013-09-09 23:50 GMT | BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

FOREX NEWS :

2013-09-09 05:44 GMT | USD/CHF bouncing modestly ahead of data following bearish reversal Friday

2013-09-09 04:16 GMT | EUR/GBP limited below 0.8430 on Euro weakness

2013-09-09 04:05 GMT | AUD/USD is heading upwards on China data and after weekend elections

2013-09-09 03:38 GMT | Playing USD/JPY from the long side - JPMorgan

EURUSD :

HIGH 1.31812 LOW 1.31642 BID 1.31718 ASK 1.31723 CHANGE -0.05% TIME 08 : 36:45

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Further positive bias development would face next resistive measure at 1.3190 (R1). If the price manages to overcome it we would suggest next intraday targets at 1.3212 (R2) and 1.3234 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, our bearish expectations remain intact below the key support level at 1.3155 (S1). Price penetration below it would allow further declines towards to lower targets at 1.3134 (S2) and 1.3112 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3190, 1.3212, 1.3234

Support Levels: 1.3155, 1.3134, 1.3112

---------------------

GBPUSD :

HIGH 1.56455 LOW 1.56158 BID 1.56441 ASK 1.56443 CHANGE 0.11% TIME 08 : 36:46

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Neutral

TREND CONDITION : Sideway

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low

Upwards scenario: GBPUSD is approaching our key resistive measure at 1.5651 (R1). If the price manages to overcome it we would suggest next intraday targets at 1.5668 (R2) and 1.5685 (R3). Downwards scenario: Medium-term bias remains sideways orientated. A dip lower the key support measure at 1.5613 (S1) would open a route towards to lower targets at 1.5596 (S2) and 1.5579 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5651, 1.5668, 1.5685

Support Levels: 1.5613, 1.5596, 1.5579

------------------

USDJPY :

HIGH 100.105 LOW 99.49 BID 99.645 ASK 99.649 CHANGE 0.56% TIME 08 : 36:47

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Measures of resistance might be activating when the pair approaches 100.11 (R1) price level. Break here would suggest next interim target at 100.44 (R2) and If the pair keeps its momentum we would expect an exposure of 100.75 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the downside bearish pressure might push the price below the support at 99.29 (S1). Further downside extension would open road towards to next target at 98.97 (S2) and any further losses would then be limited to 98.64 (S3) mark.

Resistance Levels: 100.11, 100.44, 100.75

Support Levels: 99.29, 98.97, 98.64

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

alayoua · September 10, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Sep 10 2013

EUR/USD up around 1.3270 on China

The shared currency is extending its ascent on Tuesday, lifting the EUR/USD to the area of 1.3270 on upbeat tone from the Chinese economy.China continues to be the main driver for the risk appetite trends in the first half of the week, after Industrial Production, Retail Sales and Urban Investment figures all surpassed expectations during August, giving extra oxygen to the risk-associated assets in general. In the opinion of Westpac Global Strategy Group, “The 55, 100 and 200 day moving averages have converged in the 1.3140-90 range, with the runup to 1.34 an increasingly distant memory. ECB president Draghi’s mood last week was gloomier than expected, adding to our bias to sell into the 1.32-1.33 region. However, US data has been too soft to inspire much fresh USD buying, leaving 1.3100 intact for now”.

At the moment the pair is gaining 0.09% at 1.3268 with the next resistance at 1.3279 (Kijun Line) ahead of 1.3298 (low Aug.22) and then 1.3322 (low Aug.27). On the downside, a break below 1.3157 (low Sep.9) would target 1.3104 (50% of 1.2755-1.3453) en route to 1.3089 (low Jul.19).

http://blog.fxcc.com/market-analysis

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :

N/A UK 30-y Bond Auction

2013-09-10 08:00 GMT | IT Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (Q2)

2013-09-10 12:15 GMT | CA Housing Starts s.a (YoY) (Aug)

2013-09-10 17:00 GMT | US 3-Year Note Auction

FOREX NEWS :

2013-09-10 05:40 GMT | Time for another leg up in USD/JPY - RBS

2013-09-10 05:21 GMT | EUR likely to be supported on dips - JPMorgan

2013-09-10 05:02 GMT | AUD/USD, risk is high of a further squeeze up towards 0.9500 - RBS

2013-09-10 04:25 GMT | USD/CHF holding ground above 0.9307 support despite Friday’s bearish candle

---------------

EURUSD :

HIGH 1.32725 LOW 1.32502 BID 1.32676 ASK 1.32681 CHANGE 0.1% TIME 08 : 54:03

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Up trend

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Current price setup might suggest retracement formation in near term perspective, however, if the price get acceleration on the upside and manages to surpass our resistive measure at 1.3281 (R1), we would suggest next targets at 1.3297 (R2) and 1.3313 (R3). Downwards scenario: Clearance of our support at 1.3248 (S1) is required to determine negative intraday bias and enable lower target at 1.3230 (S2) and then any further market depreciation would suggest final target at 1.3213 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3281, 1.3297, 1.3313

Support Levels: 1.3248, 1.3230, 1.3213

------------------------

GBPUSD :

HIGH 1.57086 LOW 1.56856 BID 1.57056 ASK 1.57059 CHANGE 0.08% TIME 08 : 54:04

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low

Upwards scenario: Further positive bias development would face next resistive measure at 1.5731 (R1). If the price manages to overcome it we would suggest next intraday targets at 1.5751 (R2) and 1.5772 (R3). Downwards scenario: Successful retest of our next support level at 1.5680 (S1) might provide sufficient momentum for the price acceleration towards to interim target at 1.5658 (S2) and then final aim for today could be exposed at 1.5637 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5731, 1.5751, 1.5772

Support Levels: 1.5680, 1.5658, 1.5637

----------------------

USDJPY :

HIGH 99.757 LOW 99.477 BID 99.628 ASK 99.630 CHANGE 0.06% TIME 08 : 54:05

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Neutral

TREND CONDITION : Sideway

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low

Upwards scenario: Current price setup might suggest range mode development in near term perspective. Though If the price manages to surpass our resistive measure at 99.88 (R1), we would suggest next targets at 100.18 (R2) and 100.47 (R3). Downwards scenario: Possible downside expansion is protected by support level at 99.33 (S1), break here would put bullish oriented traders on hold. Marks at 99.04 (S2) and 98.75 (S3) acts as our initial targets today.

Resistance Levels: 99.88, 100.18, 100.47

Support Levels: 99.33, 99.04, 98.75

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

alayoua · September 11, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Sep 11 2013

Obama puts Syrian action on hold while diplomacy pursued

President Obama addressed the American people on the Syrian conflict, and where the U.S. goes from here, after headlines for a diplomatic resolution inundated media outlets on Tuesday. Barack Obama started the speech with a strong case for a ‘yes’ vote in Congress, saying "We know Asssad's government was responsible" Iran would be emboldened.... "This is not a world we should accept'' , although making clear that the U.S. "will not put American boots on the ground in Syria."

As the speech progressed, a more conciliatory Obama emerged, saying that after the Russian proposal to place under international control Syria's alleged chemical weapons - which Assad's government agreed to -, he asked Congress to postpone a vote on Syria action while diplomacy is pursued, adding that Assa's initiative has the potential to remove weapons without use of force. Obama also said: "Over the last few days we’ve seen some encouraging signs, in part because of the threat of military action." Since Obama was specific about the slim chances of an immediate attack, the speech supports the recent bid on risk assets.

http://blog.fxcc.com/market-analysis

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :

N/A | The US Congress votes on military action against Syria

2013-09-11 08:30 GMT | UK Claimant Count Change (Aug)

2013-09-11 15:30 GMT | UK MPC Member Miles Speech

2013-09-11 21:00 GMT | RBNZ Interest Rate Decision

FOREX NEWS :

2013-09-11 05:41 GMT | GBP/JPY still up near the highs and eyeing 158.46 after convincing breakout

2013-09-11 05:25 GMT | USD/CHF on higher levels as geo-political tensions are fading away

2013-09-11 05:05 GMT | EUR/USD tumbling after Obama’s address; 1.3278 resistance looms large

2013-09-11 04:29 GMT | GBP/USD heads into employment report easing away from 1.5737 resistance

-----------------

EURUSD

HIGH 1.32819 LOW 1.32437 BID 1.32491 ASK 1.32493 CHANGE -0.13% TIME 09 : 05:26

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Possible upwards extension above the resistance level at 1.3266 (R1) is liable to commence medium-term bullish structure. Important fractal levels offers next targets at 1.3282 (R2) and 1.3298 (R3) in potential. Downwards scenario: As long as price stays below the moving averages our short-term outlook would be negative. Possible extension lower the 1.3240 (S1) is being able to drive market price towards to initial supports at 1.3226 (S2) and 1.3211 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3266, 1.3282, 1.3298

Support Levels: 1.3240, 1.3226, 1.3211

-------------------------

GBPUSD :

HIGH 1.57417 LOW 1.57186 BID 1.57190 ASK 1.57197 CHANGE -0.08% TIME 09 : 05:34

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: GBPUSD is approaching our key resistive measure at 1.5744 (R1). If the price manages to overcome it we would suggest next intraday targets at 1.5767 (R2) and 1.5789 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the downside, currency pair might encounter supportive measures at 1.5711 (S1). Break here would open the way for a test of our next targets at 1.5689 (S2) and 1.5666 (S3) later on today.

Resistance Levels: 1.5744, 1.5767, 1.5789

Support Levels: 1.5711, 1.5689, 1.5666

---------------------

USDJPY :

HIGH 100.609 LOW 100.139 BID 100.430 ASK 100.433 CHANGE 0.04% TIME 09 : 05:35

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: Mark at 100.65 (R1) acts as next resistive barrier on the way if the instrument keeps it upside potential. Break here is required to achieve higher targets at 100.93 (R2) and 101.19 (R3) later on today. Downwards scenario: Risk of market weakening is seen below the support level at 100.12 (S1). Loss here is required to enable our supportive barrier at 99.85 (S2) en route towards to final target for today at 99.59 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 100.65, 100.93, 101.19

Support Levels: 100.12, 99.85, 99.59

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

alayoua · September 12, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Sep 12 2013

Barroso calls for quick implementation of Eurozone banking union

Europe is on a road to recovery, but efforts must still be made to prop it up, president of the European Commission José Manuel Barroso said on Wednesday, delivering the annual State of the Union speech. He listed unemployment as the the most burning issue to solve, as its current level is “economically unsustainable, politically untenable and socially unacceptable.” Speaking at the European Parliament in Strasbourg, Barroso pointed to the recent improvements in the European financial markets as well as the better situation in Greece. “For Europe, recovery is within sight. Let's not overestimate the progress, but neither should we underestimate what has been done,” he said.

He called for a quicker implementation of the Eurozone banking union, which would help boost growth and employment. Finalizing discussions on the next EU budget was also listed as a top priority. Furthermore, Barroso stressed the need for a tighter political union, suggesting that “Europe must focus on where it can add most value. It needs to be big on big things and smaller on smaller things.” The European Commission president also referred to the chemical attack in Syria, which the EU condemns but still hopes to see the a conflict resolved through a negotiated settlement.

http://blog.fxcc.com/market-analysis

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :

2013-09-12 08:00 GMT | ECB Monthly Report

2013-09-12 09:00 GMT | UK Inflation Report Hearings

2013-09-12 11:40 GMT | ECB President Draghi's Speech

2013-09-12 12:30 GMT | US Initial Jobless Claims

FOREX NEWS :

2013-09-12 05:33 GMT | AUD/USD falls apart on softest Australian jobs data

2013-09-12 05:26 GMT | Gold teetering on the brink above 1,351.60 key support

2013-09-12 05:07 GMT | Overbought GBP/USD buoyant at 1.5835 ahead of data / events

2013-09-12 04:50 GMT | EUR/GBP threatening the 0.84 big support

---------------------

EURUSD

HIGH 1.33241 LOW 1.33041 BID 1.33043 ASK 1.33047 CHANGE -0.05% TIME 08 : 53:11

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Up trend

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: On the upside potential is seen for a break above the resistance at 1.3325 (R1). In such case we would suggest next target at 1.3339 (R2) and any further rise would then be limited to final resistance at 1.3354 (R3). Downwards scenario: Instrument looks overbought and we expect to see some consolidation pattern ahead. Risk of possible price regress is seen below the support level at 1.3299 (S1). Break here would suggest lower targets at 1.3283 (S2) and 1.3268 (S3) in potential.

Resistance Levels: 1.3325, 1.3339, 1.3354

Support Levels: 1.3299, 1.3283, 1.3268

-------------------

GBPUSD :

HIGH 1.58316 LOW 1.58131 BID 1.58144 ASK 1.58146 CHANGE -0.01% TIME 08 : 53:12

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Up trend

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Mark at 1.5837 (R1) acts as next resistive barrier on the way if the pair keeps it upside potential. Break here is required to achieve higher targets at 1.5861 (R2) and 1.5886 (R3) later on today. Downwards scenario: Medium term bias is clearly positive however we expect recovery action if the price manages to overcome key supportive bastion at 1.5800 (S1). In such case we would suggest next intraday targets at 1.5775 (S2) and 1.5748 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5837, 1.5861, 1.5886

Support Levels: 1.5800, 1.5775, 1.5748

------------------------

USDJPY :

HIGH 99.99 LOW 99.394 BID 99.493 ASK 99.495 CHANGE -0.39% TIME 08 : 53:13

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: USDJPY tested negative territory today though appreciation above the resistive structure at 99.69 (R1) might shift short-term tendency to the bullish side and validate our intraday targets at 99.88 (R2) and 100.08 (R3). Downwards scenario: Failure to establish corrective structure might lead to further downtrend evolvement later on today. Penetration below the support at 99.33 (S1) would suggest next intraday targets at 99.14 (S2) and 98.96 (S3) in perspective.

Resistance Levels: 99.69, 99.88, 100.08

Support Levels: 99.33, 99.14, 98.96

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

alayoua · September 13, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Sep 13 2013

Countdown for QE taper fireworks is on!

The judgment day for the Fed, Sept 17, is nearing, and the market is preparing accordingly for what may represent the most important monetary policy decision taken in years, as the start of QE taper gets kick-started. Even if the next FOMC meeting comes on the back of a rather disappointing NFP past Friday, the communication strategy carried out by Chairman Ben Bernanke & Co. so far suggest that some sort of light taper should be expected, or else the sell-off in the USD might be one that make headlines all over the world. According to Adam Button, Editor at Forexlive, "The market has settled on $10 billion as the most-likely size for the Fed’s taper next week", anticipating that "larger and the dollar will rally hard, smaller and it will fall."

Meanwhile, Treasury traders seem to be perceive the taper being priced in less than 10bln, which makes a bullish case for a stronger USD for those supporting odds for a more aggressive taper. If this scenario happens to be true, some long USD plays vs other G10 currencies such as the NZD, EUR or even the CAD, might be a great play based on this assumption. As Button notes: "I think it’s clear that a taper is coming but the Fed could still change its mind on the size and the messages that accompany it. Two reports in the days ahead could change their thinking: retail sales on Friday and the CPI on Monday."

http://blog.fxcc.com/market-analysis

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :

24h | EMU EcoFin Meeting

2013-09-13 12:30 GMT | US Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug)

2013-09-13 13:55 GMT | US Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Sep)

2013-09-13 14:00 GMT | US Business Inventories (Aug)

FOREX NEWS :

2013-09-13 05:17 GMT | GBP/USD little moved after Carney, US job data

2013-09-13 04:52 GMT | NZD/USD faces formidable 0.8150/70 tech resistance

2013-09-13 04:39 GMT | USD stronger ahead of US retail sales; Gold stalls

2013-09-13 04:38 GMT | EUR/USD capped by 1.3300

EURUSD :

HIGH 1.33022 LOW 1.32644 BID 1.32677 ASK 1.32680 CHANGE -0.23% TIME 08 : 40:28

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Possibility of market strengthening is seen above the immediate resistive barrier at 1.3286 (R1). Clearance here would suggest next interim target at 1.3302 (R2) and then final aim locates at 1.3317 (R3). Downwards scenario: Further downside extension might face next supportive barrier at 1.3256 (S1). Clearance here is required to open the way towards to interim target at 1.3240 (S2) and any further price regress would then be targeting 1.3225 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3286, 1.3302, 1.3317

Support Levels: 1.3256, 1.3240, 1.3225

--------------------

GBPUSD :

HIGH 1.58117 LOW 1.57766 BID 1.57812 ASK 1.57816 CHANGE -0.14% TIME 08 : 40:29

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: GBPUSD tested negative side recently, however we see potential to test resistive barrier at 1.5812 (R1) later on today. Successful penetration above that level would suggest next intraday targets at 1.5838 (R2) and 1.5864 (R3) later on today. Downwards scenario: In terms of technical levels, risk of price depreciation is seen below the support level at 1.5775 (S1). Loss here would suggest to monitor marks at 1.5750 (S2) and 1.5725 (S3) as possible intraday targets.

Resistance Levels: 1.5812, 1.5838, 1.5864

Support Levels: 1.5775, 1.5750, 1.5725

--------------------------

USDJPY :

HIGH 99.976 LOW 99.418 BID 99.861 ASK 99.866 CHANGE 0.33% TIME 08 : 40:29

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Further price appreciation is a likely scenario for today according to the technical readings. If the pair manages to clear the barrier at 100.08 (R1), we would suggest next targets at 100.24 (R2) and 100.40 (R3). Downwards scenario: Our next supportive barrier lies at 99.72 (S1). Break here is required to enable downside expansion towards to our intraday targets at 99.54 (S2) and 99.36 (S3) in potential.

Resistance Levels: 100.08, 100.24, 100.40

Support Levels: 99.72, 99.54, 99.36

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

alayoua · September 16, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Sep 16 2013

US and Russia outline diplomatic framework on Syria

Asian markets reacted positively at the open, cheering up what is perceived as a headline likely to fuel risk-on appetite, as news hit the wires on a political U.S. / Russia deal for the Syrian crisis over the weekend. Despite the easing in geopolitical tensions, there are still claims from both sides of the political spectrum in the U.S. implying the deal with Russia is a defeat by the US administration. In an interview with ABC over the weekend, Obama said limited military action should not be rule out just yet, should the Assad regime not comply to disarm its chemical arsenal. In a joint news conference between US Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, a framework document for Syria to surrender its chemical stockpiles was outlined, with Kerry calling Assad to live up to its commitments.

http://blog.fxcc.com/market-analysis

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :

2013-09-16 08:00 GMT | EMU ECB President Draghi's Speech

2013-09-16 09:00 GMT | EMU Consumer Price Index - Core (YoY) (Aug)

2013-09-16 09:00 GMT | EMU Labour cost (Q2)

2013-09-16 13:15 GMT | US Industrial Production (MoM) (Aug)

FOREX NEWS :

2013-09-16 05:07 GMT | GBP/USD flirting with 1.6000 on risk-on sentiment

2013-09-16 04:40 GMT | Expecting a $20bn Fed taper - RBS

2013-09-16 04:11 GMT | USD/CHF trading just above 0.9230 support after Fed / Summers news

2013-09-16 03:51 GMT | EUR/USD spikes on much more dovish Yellen

EURUSD :

HIGH 1.33822 LOW 1.33551 BID 1.33622 ASK 1.33627 CHANGE 0.49% TIME 08 : 34:20

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Our next resistance level is placed at 1.3384 (R1). Break here would open route towards to higher target at 1.3405 (R2) and any further price advance would then be limited to 1.3426 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, prolonged movement below the supportive measure at 1.3339 (S1) is required to activate new phase of downtrend expansion. We would suggest next aim at 1.3318 (S2) and then final target could be met at 1.3295 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3384, 1.3405, 1.3426

Support Levels: 1.3339, 1.3318, 1.3295

------------------------

GBPUSD :

HIGH 1.59576 LOW 1.59302 BID 1.59529 ASK 1.59535 CHANGE 0.5% TIME 08 : 34:20

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Up trend

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: GBPUSD is approaching our next resistive measure at 0.5971 (R1) on the upside. Break here is required to enable bullish potential and expose our interim target at 1.6000 (R2). Further price appreciation would then be limited to last resistance at 1.6030 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, price devaluation below the support at 1.5919 (S1) would initiate bearish pressure. On the way our next interim support at 1.5889 (S2) en route to final aim for today at 1.5858 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5971, 1.6000, 1.6030

Support Levels: 1.5919, 1.5889, 1.5858

---------------------

USDJPY :

HIGH 99.104 LOW 98.456 BID 98.925 ASK 98.928 CHANGE -0.44% TIME 08 : 34:24

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Down trend

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low

Upwards scenario: Discounted value of USDJPY determined negative bias on the medium-term perspective. From the technical side, next resistance is seen at 99.11 (R1). Only clearance here would allow possible gains, targeting 99.33 (R2) and 99.54 (R3). Downwards scenario: Risk of the market decline is seen below the support level at 98.44 (S1). Break here is required to open the way towards to immediate supports at 98.25 (S2) and 98.04 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 99.11, 99.33, 99.54

Support Levels: 98.44, 98.25, 98.04

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

alayoua · September 17, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Sep 17 2013

The Fed to maintain forward guidance with firm tone, says Hilsenrath

The Federal Reserve is struggling to justify extending forward guidance as part of its strategy to maintain the recovery path according to Fedwatcher Jon Hilsenrath in his latest article on the FOMC policy meeting. The FOMC is expected to publish its interest rate and monetary policy decision on Wednesday September 18 and market is widely expecting the Fed to start its cut in the bond buying program. The Fedwatcher affirmed in his piece that "Federal Reserve officials face a communication challenge explaining their interest-rate plans when they gather for a policy meeting this week."

Their challenge is "how to justify the low interest-rate plan when their own estimates suggest an economy regaining its health." According to Hilsenrath, Fed forecasts could show "rates rising but still low" by 2016. The Fed also expects economy at "full employment" by the same year. The decision on QE tapering the $85 billion-a-month bond-buying program is now a close call "on whether to start pulling back on the QE." The Fed is now changing its emphasis from bond buying to the "low-rate pledge."

http://blog.fxcc.com/market-analysis

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :

2013-09-17 08:30 GMT : UK Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Jul)

2013-09-17 09:00 GMT : EMU ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment (Aug)

2013-09-17 12:30 GMT : US Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Aug)

2013-09-17 13:00 GMT : US Net Long-Term TIC Flows (Jul)

FOREX NEWS :

2013-09-17 05:29 GMT : NZD/USD downwards in tandem with “Aussie”

2013-09-17 04:43 GMT : EUR/USD sails below EMA20 - extending trading range

2013-09-17 04:43 GMT : EUR/GBP still under the 0.84 handle ahead of German ZEW & UK CPI

2013-09-17 04:16 GMT : AUD/JPY pops up after RBA minutes

-----------------

EURUSD :

HIGH 1.33422 LOW 1.33252 BID 1.33396 ASK 1.33398 CHANGE 0.04% TIME 08 : 56:12

OUTLOOK SUMMARY Up

TREND CONDITION Upward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT Bullish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY High

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Current price setup is looking for upwards extension possibility. Risk of the price acceleration is seen above the key resistance level at 1.3361 (R1). Clearance here would put immediate focus on the next targets at 1.3384 (R2) and then 1.3405 (R3). Downwards scenario: Our next support level is placed at 1.3321 (S1). Possible penetration below it might initiate bearish pressure and gradually push the price towards to our intraday targets at 1.3298 (S2) and 1.3275 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3361, 1.3384, 1.3405

Support Levels: 1.3321, 1.3298, 1.3275

--------------------

GBPUSD :

HIGH 1.59151 LOW 1.58884 BID 1.59091 ASK 1.59098 CHANGE 0.08% TIME 08 : 56:13

OUTLOOK SUMMARY Up

TREND CONDITION Downward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY High

Upwards scenario: GBPUSD resumed upwards penetration today and we see potential to expose our intraday targets at 1.5996 (R2) and 1.6030 (R3) if the price manages to overcome key resistance measure at 1.5964 (R1). Downwards scenario: Though, we still keep the bearish scenario in focus. Risk of market decline is seen below the key support level at 1.5888 (S1). Loss here would enable initial targets at 1.5853 (S2) and 1.5818 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5964, 1.5996, 1.6030

Support Levels: 1.5888, 1.5853, 1.5818

-------------------------

USDJPY :

HIGH 99.358 LOW 99.009 BID 99.145 ASK 99.147 CHANGE 0.1% TIME 08 : 56:14

OUTLOOK SUMMARY Down

TREND CONDITION Upward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY Medium

Upwards scenario: Price strengthening is possible above the next resistance level at 99.36 (R1). Our interim target holds at 99.56 (R2) en route to our final aim for today at 99.77 (R3). Downwards scenario: However if the price manages to break our key support level at 99.00 (S1) bearish market participants might take the initiative. Our intraday support level locates at 98.79 (S2) and 98.58 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 99.36, 99.56, 99.77

Support Levels: 99.00, 98.79, 98.58

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

alayoua · September 18, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Sep 18 2013

All eyes on the Fed as investors weigh September taper odds

As the September Fed monetary policy meeting is drawing near, the debate on the FOMC's possible decision to start scaling back the asset purchase program is becoming more and more heated. Recent developments, such as the disappointing August NFP numbers, as well as the ongoing Syrian conflict, have shaken economists' confidence as to whether the QE taper will really be initiated next week. “With a job market 'far from satisfactory' and a promise to adjust monetary policy depending on economic conditions, it would not be a surprise if the Fed postpones the reduction of monthly asset purchases until the next meeting in late October,” Ilian Yotov suggests. Alexandra Estiot also doesn't expect the Fed to make the move at the upcoming meeting, reasoning that “the likeliness of inflation pressures showing up is close to zero,” which means “the cost, in terms of inflation, of ending QE3 too late is nil, while the benefits, even if very difficult to clearly assess, are positive.” Despite the doubts about whether the Fed will start reducing QE in September, all of the economists agree with Steve Ruffley that the FOMC “are planning to taper by the end of the year and nothing will change this.”

http://blog.fxcc.com/market-analysis

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :

2013-09-18 08:30 GMT | Bank of England Minutes

2013-09-18 18:00 GMT | US Fed Interest Rate Decision

2013-09-18 18:30 GMT | US Fed's Monetary Policy Statement and press conference

2013-09-18 22:45 GMT | NZ Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (Q2)

FOREX NEWS :

2013-09-18 05:21 GMT | USD/CHF muted ahead of FOMC minutes

2013-09-18 05:05 GMT | EUR/USD rebounds from ST dip but remains below 1.3432 ceiling ahead of US data / news

2013-09-18 04:58 GMT | EUR/GBP battling to recover the 0.84 handle ahead of BoE

2013-09-18 04:32 GMT | GBP/USD holding below the flat line ahead of BOE minutes and FOMC fun

-------------------------

EURUSD :

HIGH 1.33639 LOW 1.33468 BID 1.33619 ASK 1.33621 CHANGE 0.03% TIME 08 : 43:12

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Sideway

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: EURUSD trapped to the consolidation mode on the hourly chart frame after the initial uptrend formation. Next resistive barrier is seen at 1.3384 (R1), break here is required to enable next attractive points at 1.3405 (R2) and 1.3427 (R3). Downwards scenario: Yesterday low offers a key supportive measure at 1.3324 (S1). A violation here is liable to commence correction pattern on the bigger picture and expose our initial targets at 1.3301 (S2) and 1.3275 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3384, 1.3405, 1.3427

Support Levels: 1.3324, 1.3301, 1.3275

----------------------

GBPUSD :

HIGH 1.59146 LOW 1.58919 BID 1.59133 ASK 1.59136 CHANGE 0.07% TIME 08 : 43:13

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Sideway

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: Local high offers a key resistive barrier at 1.5936 (R1). Subsequently loss here might create upside momentum and drive market price towards to our initial targets at 1.5971 (R2) and 1.6008 (R3) in potential. Downwards scenario: On the other hand, depreciation below the support level at 1.5885 (S1) would suggest next intraday target at 1.5851 (S2) and any further weakening would then be limited to final support level at 1.5816 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5936, 1.5971, 1.6008

Support Levels: 1.5885, 1.5851, 1.5816

-------------------

USDJPY :

HIGH 99.336 LOW 99.103 BID 99.194 ASK 99.197 CHANGE 0.08% TIME 08 : 43:13

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: Possible bullish penetration might face next challenge at 99.38 (R1). Break here would suggest next target at 99.58 (R2) en route towards to last resistance for today at 99.77 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the downside, we see potential to positively retest our supportive measure at 99.03 (S1). Clearance here is required to open route towards to our initial targets at 98.84 (S2) and 98.64 (S3) in potential.

Resistance Levels: 99.38, 99.58, 99.77

Support Levels: 99.03, 98.84, 98.64

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

alayoua · September 20, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Sep 20 2013

Asset purchase schemes remaining static.

As the tide went out on the shock decision by the FOMC regarding their asset purchase schemes remaining static, the markets in the USA appeared to pause for thought in Thursday's trading sessions. Looking at high impact news events the improved unemployment data was discounted given the fact that two states, including California, failed to proved jobs data as their computer systems were still off grid. Better news came in the form of house sales reaching a recent high, whilst the Philly Fed number came in off the scale in terms of positivity. The improved housing market news was added to by costs for U.S. home buyers predicted to fall from the highest level in two years after the Federal Reserve increased expectations that it will keep short-term interest rates at about zero percent. Rates on 30-year mortgages reached 4.93 percent in the week ended Sept 6th, the highest level seen since April 2011 and up from a record low of 3.57 percent in December, according to Mortgage Bankers Association data. The rate declined to 4.86 percent last week. Treasuries dropped the day after experiencing the biggest rally in two years as improved economic conditions made investors more certain that the Federal Reserve’s next move will be to reduce monetary stimulus. The 10-year yield rose six basis points or 0.06 percentage point to 2.75 percent late in the New York session. The price of the 2.5 percent note maturing in August 2023 dropped 17/32, or, $5.31 per $1,000 face value, to 97 26/32. The yield slid 16 basis points on Wednesday, the biggest decline since Oct 31st 2011.

http://blog.fxcc.com/market-analysis

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :

2013-09-20 08:30 GMT | UK Public Sector Net Borrowing (Aug)

2013-09-20 12:30 GMT | CA Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Aug)

2013-09-20 14:00 GMT | EMU Consumer Confidence (Sep)

2013-09-20 16:30 GMT | US Fed's George Speech

FOREX NEWS :

2013-09-20 05:18 GMT | RBA likely to ease again; AUD to trade heavy - NAB

2013-09-20 05:15 GMT | GBP/USD bouncing modestly at 1.6042 after downside correction day Thursday

2013-09-20 05:11 GMT | GBP/JPY finds strong supply at 160 round

2013-09-20 04:38 GMT | EUR/GBP stalling below 0.8450 ahead of Germany elections

---------------------

EURUSD :

HIGH 1.35393 LOW 1.35279 BID 1.35354 ASK 1.35357 CHANGE 0.05% TIME 08 : 47:18

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Sideway

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Next hurdle that limit uptrend development lies at 1.3569 (R1). If the break occurs here we would suggest next attractive point at 1.3598 (R2) and any further rise would then be limited to final resistance at 1.3628 (R3). Downwards scenario: We placed our support level right below the local low at 1.3507 (S1). Clearance here is liable to open way towards to our interim target at 1.3474 (S2) and then might expose final aim at 1.3440 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3569, 1.3598, 1.3628

Support Levels: 1.3507, 1.3474, 1.3440

---------------------

GBPUSD :

HIGH 1.60462 LOW 1.60238 BID 1.60450 ASK 1.60454 CHANGE 0.09% TIME 08 : 47:19

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Immediate resistance at 1.6082 (R1) remains in near-term focus, climb above this level might open way towards to next interim target at 1.6126 (R2) and any further rise would then be limited to final resistive measure at 1.6170 (R3) Downwards scenario: On the downside, next support level locates at 1.6021 (S1). Possible penetration below this mark would open way towards to next target at 1.5978 (S2) and then any further market decline would be limited to last mark at 1.5933 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.6082, 1.6126, 1.6170

Support Levels: 1.6021, 1.5578, 1.5933

USDJPY :

HIGH 99.562 LOW 99.174 BID 99.253 ASK 99.257 CHANGE -0.22% TIME 08 : 47:20

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Possible uptrend development is limited now to the next resistive measure at 99.63 (R1). Clearance here is required to enable our interim target at 99.85 (R2) en route to final aim at 100.06 (R3). Downwards scenario: Penetration below the support level at 99.10 (S1) might maintain a negative tone in near term perspective. In such case we would suggest next supportive measures at 98.87 (S2) and 98.64 (S3) as possible retracement targets.

Resistance Levels: 99.63, 99.85, 100.06

Support Levels: 99.10, 98.87, 98.64

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

alayoua · September 23, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Sep 23 2013

Merkel wins German election, arduous coalition talks ahead...

Asian traders bought up the Euro through interbank trading, following early evidence of what later was confirmed as the best result for Merkel's conservative party in a general election since 1990, with the Chancellor receiving around 42% of all votes to keep her post as one of the most powerful women on the globe for a third term. Despite the early enthusiasm, the excitement faded pretty quick, with traders deciding to be sidelined as Merkel still faces a tough road ahead, now having to engage on coalition negotiation to form a government - a process which may take weeks if not months - after Mekel's CDU fell very short from claiming an absolute majority.

As the quiet Asian session advanced, and with the Tokyo market closed due to public holidays, the only relevant headline to outline was the Chinese HSBC PMI, which came at a 6-month high, supporting the Australian Dollar across the board. On the commodity arena, metals were hammered yet again, following Fed's Bullard comments on Friday, which triggered the 'taper trade' again, after saying that the October FOMC meeting was still 'live' in terms of tapering.-FXstreet.com

http://blog.fxcc.com/market-analysis

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :

2013-09-23 07:28 GMT | DE Markit Services PMI (Sep)

2013-09-23 07:58 GMT | EMU Markit Manufacturing PMI (Sep)

2013-09-23 12:58 GMT | US Markit Manufacturing PMI (Oct)

2013-09-23 13:00 GMT | ECB President Draghi's Speech

FOREX NEWS :

2013-09-23 05:18 GMT | EUR/USD still indecisive just above flat line; 1.3534 is the level to conquer for the bulls

2013-09-23 05:02 GMT | GBP/JPY upwards amidst of a Tokyo-holiday session

2013-09-23 04:33 GMT | USD/CHF finishes “abc” upside correction at 0.9122; headed lower

2013-09-23 03:56 GMT | USD/JPY bracing for takeoff?

----------------

EURUSD :

HIGH 1.35459 LOW 1.35202 BID 1.35293 ASK 1.35297 CHANGE 0.02% TIME 08 : 40:09

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Sideway

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Technically, next resistive structure lies at 1.3549 (R1). Break here is required to initiate upwards action towards to next target at 1.3583 (R2) and then final aim could be exposed at 1.3618 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, current range pattern on the hourly chart suggest possible retest of our supportive measure at 1.3507 (S1). Break here is required to open way towards to initial targets at 1.3474 (S2) and 1.3440 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3549, 1.3583, 1.3618

Support Levels: 1.3507, 1.3474, 1.3440

--------------------

GBPUSD :

HIGH 1.60314 LOW 1.59929 BID 1.60220 ASK 1.60224 CHANGE 0.09% TIME 08 : 40:10

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: On the upside resistive structure at 1.6044 (R1) prevents possible gains. Clearance here is required to open route towards to next target at 1.6075 (R2) and then final target could be triggered at 1.6106 (R3). Downwards scenario: Local low offers a key support level on the downside. A dip below the 1.5987 (S1) would suggest next intraday targets at 1.5956 (S2) and potentially 1.5925 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.6044, 1.6075, 1.6106

Support Levels: 1.5987, 1.5956, 1.5925

------------------

USDJPY :

HIGH 99.359 LOW 99.084 BID 99.117 ASK 99.119 CHANGE -0.2% TIME 08 : 40:11

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Any upside actions looks limited now to resistive measure at 99.36 (R1). Break here is required to enable uptrend formation towards to higher target at 99.55 (R2). Final aim for today locates at 99.74 (R3). Downwards scenario: Fresh low formed today offers an important resistive measure at 99.04 (S1). Break here is required to drive market price towards to next visible targets at 98.86 (S2) and 98.69 (S3) later on today.

Resistance Levels: 99.36, 99.55, 99.74

Support Levels: 99.04, 98.86, 98.69

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

alayoua · September 25, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Sep 25 2013

Aussie, kiwi heavy; Tokyo stained with red

Asian traders were rather inactive at the early going of Tokyo, with some Yen strength the main theme, yet as the session advanced, Aussie weakness also became dominant. In the US, following an uncertain and uneven Wall Street session after Fed’s comments on indefinite timing for bond-buying program, Asia registered mixed results in equity indexes with the Nikkei down 0.39%, pushing the yen higher. In New Zealand, the trade deficit expanded from $-771M to $-1191M beating estimates, for the worse, at $-743M. In Australia, the RBA said the banking system is liquid and in good shape and added the housing market data is strong and yet the Aussie remained heavy with slow progress upward.

Japan prepared for the tankan results next week and market participants remain on their feet to any governmental decision to increase the sales taxes as Prime Minister Abe announce a potential increase based on tankan results despite the Spring 2014 plans to proceed with the monetary policies. In the futures contracts realm, all metals printed gains with notably copper advancing on positive Chinese consumer data along with gold registering gains worth 0.66% for the first time in the week to reach $1,325.00.

http://blog.fxcc.com/market-analysis

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :

2013-09-25 06:00 GMT | DE Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey (Oct)

2013-09-25 10:00 GMT | UK CBI Distributive Trades Survey - Realized (MoM) (Sep)

2013-09-25 12:30 GMT | US Durable Goods Orders (Aug)

2013-09-25 14:00 GMT | US New Home Sales (MoM) (Aug)

FOREX NEWS :

2013-09-25 05:05 GMT | EUR/USD threatening Tuesday low of 1.3463 ahead of Europe open

2013-09-25 04:47 GMT | USD/JPY has downside risks in coming months - JPMorgan

2013-09-25 04:24 GMT | AUD/USD is falling as “debt-ceiling” issue looms out

2013-09-25 03:36 GMT | Gold rallies off Tuesday low at 1305.50, but runs into wall at 1326.80

-------------------

EURUSD

HIGH 1.34809 LOW 1.34619 BID 1.34719 ASK 1.34722 CHANGE -0.01% TIME 08 : 47:09

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Down trend

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Next resistive barrier locates at 1.3497 (R1). Violation here is required to provide a signal of further market strengthening. In such case, resistances at 1.3520 (R2) and 1.3542 (R3) acts as next attractive points for the bullish oriented traders. Downwards scenario: Further correction development might face next hurdle at 1.3458 (S1). Break here is required to open road towards to our next interim target at 1.3437 (S2), en route to final aim at 1.3415 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3497, 1.3520, 1.3542

Support Levels: 1.3458, 1.3437, 1.3415

-------------------

GBPUSD :

HIGH 1.60039 LOW 1.59794 BID 1.59904 ASK 1.59911 CHANGE -0.07% TIME 08 : 47:09

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: A violation of next resistance at 1.6021 (R1) might call for a run towards to next target at 1.6060 (R2) and any further appreciation would then be limited to final target at 1.6097 (R3). Downwards scenario: As long as price stays below the 20 SMA our technical outlook would be negative. Extension lower the key support level at 1.5954 (S1) is being able to drive market price towards to our next targets at 1.5912 (S2) and 1.5870 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.6021, 1.6060, 1.6097

Support Levels: 1.5954, 1.5912, 1.5870

-----------------

USDJPY :

HIGH 98.798 LOW 98.557 BID 98.680 ASK 98.682 CHANGE -0.06% TIME 08 : 47:10

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Sideway

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Neutral tone remains favored on the hourly chart frame, however possible extension above the resistive measure at 98.92 (R1) would suggest next intraday targets at 99.07 (R2) and 99.21 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, new phase of downtrend formation might commence below the important support level at 98.56 (S1). Break here is required to validate our targets at 98.41 (S2) and 98.26 (S3) later on today.

Resistance Levels: 98.92, 99.07, 99.21

Support Levels: 98.56, 98.41, 98.26

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

alayoua · September 26, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Sep 26 2013

SPX drop longest since 'fiscal cliff' debacle of December 2012

The SPX has dropped over 1.9 percent during the past five trading days as investors remain cautious as to whether or not the pending government shutdown will eventually harm USA economic growth. The current fall is now the longest witnessed on the index since Dec 28th 2012, when USA lawmakers clashed over the impending automatic spending cuts and tax increases known as the "fiscal cliff". Sterling advanced 0.4 percent to $1.6070 late in the London session after rising to $1.6163 on Sept 18th, which was the highest level seen since Jan 11th. The U.K. currency was little changed at 84.22 pence per euro after appreciating to 83.53 pence on Sept 18th, the strongest level seen since Jan 17th. Sterling strengthened towards its eight-month high versus the dollar after a gauge of U.K. retail sales from the UK's CBI increased in September, adding to signs the U.K. economy is improving, slowly. Sterling rose versus all of its 16 major counterparts before a report today that analysts believe will confirm that the U.K. economy expanded last quarter by the estimated 0.7%. The pound has in fact been the best performer during the past six months, appreciating 5.8 percent versus the dollar.

http://blog.fxcc.com/market-analysis

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :

2013-09-26 08:30 GMT | UK Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (Q2)

2013-09-26 12:30 GMT | US Gross Domestic Product Annualized (Q2)

2013-09-26 14:00 GM | US Pending Home Sales (YoY) (Aug)

2013-09-26 23:30 GMT | JP National CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (Aug)

FOREX NEWS :

2013-09-26 05:37 GMT | USD/JPY surges as Nikkei cracks the 14,500

2013-09-26 05:36 GMT | EUR/USD gathering steam for another upside move ahead of European

2013-09-26 04:28 GMT | GBP/USD consolidating big gains from Wednesday; first support 1.6046

2013-09-26 03:17 GMT | GBP/JPY propelled to 159.27 highs

-------------------

EURUSD

HIGH 1.35306 LOW 1.35116 BID 1.35209 ASK 1.35213 CHANGE -0.03% TIME 08 : 47:50

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: An element of resistive measures could be found at 1.3538 (R1). Clearance here would suggest further uptrend development towards to our interim target at 1.3562 (R2). Final aim locates today at 1.3584 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other side, depreciation below the support barrier at 1.3507 (S1) might provide sufficient space for the recovery action. In such case we would suggest next intraday targets at 1.3483 (S2) and then 1.3459 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3538, 1.3562, 1.3584

Support Levels: 1.3507, 1.3483, 1.3459

----------------

GBPUSD

HIGH 1.60865 LOW 1.60671 BID 1.60771 ASK 1.60775 CHANGE -0.01% TIME 08 : 47:51

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: On the upside, fractals level at 1.6090 (R1) offers an important resistive structure. Any penetration above that level would suggest next intraday targets at 1.6114 (R2) and 1.6137 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, our bearish expectations remain intact below the key support level at 1.6055 (S1). Price penetration below it would allow further declines towards to lower targets at 1.6031 (S2) and 1.6006 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.6090, 1.6114, 1.6137

Support Levels: 1.6055, 1.6031, 1.6006

-----------------

USDJPY

HIGH 99.11 LOW 98.269 BID 98.893 ASK 98.896 CHANGE 0.47% TIME 08 : 47:52

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Market remains relatively stable above the moving averages. Clearance of next resistance level at 99.11 (R1) might initiates bullish pressure and expose our intraday targets at 99.26 (R2) and 99.42 (R3) later on today. Downwards scenario: Clearance of our support at 98.68 (S1) is required to determine negative intraday bias and enable lower target at 98.51 (S2) and then any further market depreciation would suggest final aim at 98.34 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 99.11, 99.26, 99.42

Support Levels: 98.68, 98.51, 98.34

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

alayoua · October 1, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Oct 01 2013

The US government shutdown - truth or dare

Early in the overnight/early morning session we'll have received the RBA decision regarding the base rate for Australia, this will be accompanied by a statement concerning the decision, which is expected to keep the current rate at 2.5%. The U.S. government looks set for its first partial shutdown in over 17 years, with no signs of compromise from the Congress or the White House. The U.S. has had 17 funding gaps from 1977 to 1996. In 1995 and 1996, interruptions lasted from Nov 14th to Nov 19th and from Dec 16th to Jan 6th, as Republicans led by House Speaker Newt Gingrich clashed with President Bill Clinton. Equity index futures are down on the USA equity markets, the DJIA equity index future is down 0.98 at the time of writing, leaving the index at 15046, very close to the critical 15,000 level. SPX equity index future is down 0.62%. European equity index futures are mainly in the red, STOXX down 0.9%, FTSE down 0.79% and the DAX down 0.87%. The U.S. Dollar Index, tracking the performance of a basket of the 10 leading global currencies versus the dollar, fell for a second trading-day, declining by 0.1 percent to 1,011.85 late in the New York session, after weakening by as much as 0.2 percent. The yen was little changed at 98.30 per dollar after touching 97.50, the strongest level since Aug 29th. Japan’s currency fell 0.1 percent to 132.93 versus the euro after appreciating to 131.38, the strongest level witnessed since Sept 9th. The euro was little changed at $1.3527.

http://blog.fxcc.com/market-analysis

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :

2013-10-01 09:00 GMT | EU.EMU Unemployment Rate (Aug)

2013-10-01 12:58 GMT | US. Markit Manufacturing PMI (Oct)

2013-10-01 14:00 GMT | US. Construction Spending (MoM) (Aug)

2013-10-01 14:00 GMT | US. ISM Manufacturing PMI (Sep)

FOREX NEWS :

2013-10-01 05:18 GMT | AUD/JPY continues short-term upside following Aussie rate decision and comments

2013-10-01 04:39 GMT | EUR/USD eyes 1.3550 as shutdown kicks in

2013-10-01 04:31 GMT | USD/JPY slipping and sliding now that US government shutdown is a reality

2013-10-01 04:01 GMT | GBP/USD is spiking as the Senate votes down the House spending bill

---------------------

EURUSD :

HIGH 1.35519 LOW 1.35174 BID 1.35448 ASK 1.35452 CHANGE 0.14% TIME 08 : 24:34

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Sideway

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Next resistance level is seen at 1.3555 (R1). Subsequently loss here might create upside momentum and drive market price towards to our initial targets at 1.3578 (R2) and 1.3600 (R3) in potential. Downwards scenario: Possible pull back development is limited now to the key supportive barrier at 1.3517 (S1). Only loss here would be considered as a beginning of a retracement expansion. Our intraday targets locates at 1.3472 (S2) and 1.3435 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3555, 1.3578, 1.3600

Support Levels: 1.3517, 1.3472, 1.3435

--------------------

GBPUSD :

HIGH 1.62465 LOW 1.61823 BID 1.62370 ASK 1.62374 CHANGE 0.32% TIME 08 : 24:35

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Up trend

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: The local peak at 1.6247 (R1) offers an important resistive level. Any penetration above it might shift the balance to the bullish side and validate our intraday targets at 1.6279 (R2) and 1.6308 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the downside our attention is shifted to the immediate support level at 1.6207 (S1). Break here is required to enable bearish forces and expose our intraday targets at 1.6180 (S2) and 1.6139 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.6247, 1.6279, 1.6308

Support Levels: 1.6207, 1.6180, 1.6139

---------------------------

USDJPY :

HIGH 98.728 LOW 98.031 BID 98.124 ASK 98.129 CHANGE -0.09% TIME 08 : 24:36

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Down trend

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Neutral

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Break above the next resistance level at 98.56 (R1) is required to generate upside action and trigger our intraday targets at 98.81 (R2) and 99.05 (R3). Downwards scenario: Further correction development is limited now to the session low - 97.95 (S1). If the price manages to surpass it we would suggest next intraday targets at 97.63 (S2) and 97.30 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 98.56, 98.81, 99.05

Support Levels: 97.95, 97.63, 97.30

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

alayoua · October 7, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Oct 07 2013

Yen rises versus major peers early in the Asian session

There were no significant breaks or gaps to the upside or downside as the FX markets opened on Sunday evening. Yen made a modest rise versus the majority of its peers, but at the time of writing had failed to penetrate the significant resistance or support levels. The dollar fell for a fifth week last week, the longest stretch the greenback has experienced such a fall since April 2011, due to Congress failing to agree on a route forward to raise the $16.7 trillion U.S. debt limit, encouraging investors to seek other safe haven assets. The U.S. Dollar Index, tracking the greenback versus its 10 major peer currencies, declined by 0.3 percent last week, (the most in two weeks), to 1,009.98 in New York at the close on Friday. The dollar fell 0.8 percent to 97.48 yen, the third weekly drop. It touched 96.93, the lowest since Aug. 28th. The U.S. currency weakened by 0.3 percent to $1.3558 per euro. The yen strengthened 0.5 percent to 132.14 per euro. Sterling fell by the most last week in the dollar’s 16 most-traded peers, after reaching a nine-month high, the sell off was due to speculation that the U.K. economic recovery isn’t strong enough to warrant the early interest-rate increase the BoE governor Mark Carney had mentioned in earlier press conferences.

http://blog.fxcc.com/market-analysis

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :

2013-10-07 08:30 GMT | EMU Sentix Investor Confidence (Oct)

2013-10-07 12:30 GMT | CA Building Permits (MoM) (Aug)

2013-10-07 19:00 GMT | US Consumer Credit Change (Aug)

2013-10-07 23:50 GMT | Trade Balance - BOP Basis (Aug)

FOREX NEWS :

2013-10-07 05:18 GMT | Asian bourses fall sharply due to US political “jitters”

2013-10-07 04:49 GMT | AUD/USD trading in the upper level ignoring US political “woes”

2013-10-07 03:49 GMT | USD a tad weaker as US shutdown set to extend

2013-10-07 02:37 GMT | EURUSD - Uptrend intact but latest pullbacks raises some concerns - 2ndSkies

----------------

EURUSD :

HIGH 1.35742 LOW 1.35609 BID 1.35680 ASK 1.35685 CHANGE 0.09% TIME 08 : 45:02

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Next barrier on the upside lies at 1.3579 (R1). Surpassing of this level might enable our initial target at 1.3594 (R2) and any further gains would then be limited to last resistive structure at 1.3609 (R3). Downwards scenario: Positive clearance of our key support level at 1.3538 (S1) would enable next target at 1.3523 (S2) en route to our final support for today at 1.3508 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3579, 1.3594, 1.3609

Support Levels: 1.3538, 1.3523, 1.3508

----------------------

GBPUSD :

HIGH 1.60483 LOW 1.60153 BID 1.60325 ASK 1.60329 CHANGE 0.17% TIME 08 : 45:03

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Down trend

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Our next resistance level is placed at 1.6050 (R1). Break here would open route towards to higher target at 1.6068 (R2) and any further price advance would then be limited to 1.6086 (R3). Downwards scenario: Failure to establish corrective structure might lead to further downtrend evolvement later on today. Penetration below the support at 1.6005 (S1) would suggest next intraday targets at 1.5987 (S2) and 1.5970 (S3) in perspective.

Resistance Levels: 1.6050, 1.6068, 1.6086

Support Levels: 1.6005, 1.5987, 1.5970

--------------------

USDJPY :

HIGH 97.338 LOW 97.021 BID 97.144 ASK 97.148 CHANGE -0.34% TIME 08 : 45:04

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Neutral

TREND CONDITION : Sideway

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Price is consolidating on the hourly timeframe however we see potential to overcome our next resistance level at 97.50 (R1) later on today. Our initial targets locates at 97.73 (R2) and 97.96 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, prolonged movement below the supportive measure at 96.92 (S1) is required to activate new phase of downtrend expansion. We would suggest next aim at 96.68 (S2) and then final target could be met at 96.45 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 97.50, 97.73, 97.96

Support Levels: 96.92, 96.68, 96.45

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

alayoua · October 10, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Oct 10 2013

Yellen's hard task highlighted by the minutes from the FOMC

Janet Yellen's difficult task was highlighted by the FOMC minutes published on Wednesday. Policy makers at the US Federal Reserve were split over the benefits of slowing down (tapering) its $85bn a month asset purchases in September, highlighting the difficult task facing her as she prepares to take chairmanship of the central bank. Barack Obama stepped up his discussions with Congress as USA political leaders look for a solution to the budget crisis that could leave the country without money to pay its bills before the end of the month. The president will meet senior Republicans from the House of Representatives at the White House on Thursday, after talks with members of his Democratic party on Wednesday evening. US default swaps trade has soared on debt fears. Growing investor fears that Washington could miss a payment on its debt has led to a surge in activity in the market for derivatives that insure against a US default. Commodities were hit hard in Wednesday's trading sessions; ICE WTI oil closing down 2.05% at $101.37 per barrel, NYMEX natural down 1.00% at $3.68 per therm. COMEX gold closed the day down 1.31%, silver down 2.46% at $21.89 per ounce.

http://blog.fxcc.com/market-analysis

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :

2013-10-10 08:00 GMT | ECB Monthly Report

2013-10-10 11:00 GMT | BoE Interest Rate Decision

2013-10-10 11:45 GMT | Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda Speech

2013-10-10 16:00 GMT | Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda Speech

FOREX NEWS :

2013-10-10 05:43 GMT | USD/CHF on a strong rally higher

2013-10-10 04:32 GMT | USD/JPY soars on Nikkei, solid data and short-covering

2013-10-10 04:30 GMT | EUR/USD working on a re-test of yesterday’s low at 1.3488

2013-10-10 03:17 GMT | GBP/USD struggling to set a solid short-term low; anywhere in 1.5841 – 1.5908 will do

EURUSD :

HIGH 1.35275 LOW 1.34876 BID 1.35034 ASK 1.35037 CHANGE -0.13% TIME 08 : 52:42

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Down trend

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: We see potential to test our resistive barrier at 1.3516 (R1) later on today. Successful penetration above this mark might keep bullish sentiment in play and validate our intraday targets at 1.3531 (R2) and 1.3546 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, instrument might enable bearish pressure below the support level at 1.3485 (S1) and prolong initial downtrend development. Next targets on the way locates at 1.3471 (S2) and 1.3457 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3516, 1.3531, 1.3546

Support Levels: 1.3485, 1.3471, 1.3457

------------------

GBPUSD :

HIGH 1.59654 LOW 1.59142 BID 1.59405 ASK 1.59413 CHANGE -0.09% TIME 08 : 52:43

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Down trend

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: Fractal level offers a key resistive barrier at 1.5968 (R1). Subsequently loss here might create upside momentum and drive market price towards to our initial targets at 1.6006 (R2) and 1.6039 (R3) in potential. Downwards scenario: Fresh low offers a key supportive measure at 1.5914 (S1) on a downside. A violation here is liable to commence correction pattern on the bigger picture and expose our initial targets at 1.5878 (S2) and 1.5845 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5968, 1.6006, 1.6039

Support Levels: 1.5914, 1.5878, 1.5845

--------------

USDJPY :

HIGH 97.823 LOW 97.338 BID 97.727 ASK 97.731 CHANGE 0.39% TIME 08 : 52:44

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Up trend

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: While price is quoted above the 20 SMA, our technical outlook would be positive. Clearance of our next resistance level at 97.87 (R1) would suggest next intraday targets at 98.01 (R2) and 98.14 (S3) in perspective. Downwards scenario: On the other hand, depreciation below the support level at 97.65 (S1) would suggest next intraday target at 97.51 (S2) and any further weakening would then be limited to final support level at 97.37 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 97.87, 98.01, 98.14

Support Levels: 97.65, 97.51, 97.37

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

alayoua · October 21, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Oct 21 2013

China’s central government has called for “unrelenting” implementation of its economic policies and reform measures

Monday sees the publication of Germany's PPI figure and the monthly report from Germany's Bundesbank. Inflation is expected to come in at 0.1% month on month. In the USA another member of the Fed will hold court with the focus moving from the debt ceiling issue to the other issues affecting the USA economy, such as the throttling of monetary easing by way of tapering. Existing home sales in the USA are expected to come in at 5.31 million from the previous month's 5.48 million. Canada's wholesale sales are anticipated to print at 0.6%. USA crude oil inventory figures are suggested to fall to 3.4 million barrels from 6.8 million barrels the previous month. More arrivals from China contributed to a 7 percent increase in visitors to New Zealand in September 2013, compared with September 2012, Statistics New Zealand said today. "The 21,200 visitors from China was well up from 14,000 last September," population statistics manager Andrea Blackburn said. "This continues the strong growth in visitor numbers which we have seen from the world's most populous country in recent years." In the September 2013 year, visitor arrivals rose 3 percent to reach 2.670 million.

http://blog.fxcc.com/market-analysis

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :

N/A | US CB Leading Indicator (MoM) (Sep)

2013-10-21 06:00 GMT | DE Producer Price Index (YoY) (Sep)

2013-10-21 14:00 GMT | US Existing Home Sales (MoM) (Sep)

2013-10-21 14:30 GMT | US EIA Crude Oil Stocks change (Oct 11)

FOREX NEWS :

2013-10-21 05:40 GMT | AUD/USD upwards ‘flirting’ with the 200-daily SMA at 0.9755

2013-10-21 05:04 GMT | USD/CHF moves on the upper level on greenback strengthening

2013-10-21 04:23 GMT | USD/JPY looking to test 200-day MA 97.15 - BBH

2013-10-21 03:33 GMT | EUR/USD opens week in the red as part of consolidation; upside eventually 1.3750?

----------------------

EURUSD :

HIGH 1.36879 LOW 1.36706 BID 1.36776 ASK 1.36779 CHANGE -0.06% TIME 08 : 53:03

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Sideway

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: EURUSD clearly determined positive bias on the medium-term perspective. Penetration above the resistive measure at 1.3704 (R1) might encourage protective orders execution and drive market price towards to the next resistive means at 1.3721(R2) and 1.3739 (R3). Downwards scenario: Our next supportive measure locates at 1.3658 (S1). Break here is required to enable correction action towards to next target at 1.3641 (S2). Final support for today locates at 1.3622 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3704, 1.3721, 1.3739

Support Levels: 1.3658, 1.3641, 1.3622

----------------

GBPUSD :

HIGH 1.61774 LOW 1.61522 BID 1.61706 ASK 1.61711 CHANGE 0.04% TIME 08 : 53:04

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Sideway

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low

Upwards scenario: On the upside fractal level at 1.6225 (R1) prevents further gains. Successful clearance here would suggest next intraday targets at 1.6248 (R2) and 1.6269 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, current range pattern on the hourly chart suggest possible retest of our supportive measure at 1.6148 (S1). Break here is required to open way towards to initial targets at 1.6125 (S2) and 1.6102 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.6225, 1.6248, 1.6269

Support Levels: 1.6148, 1.6125, 1.6102

-----------------------------

USDJPY :

HIGH 98.103 LOW 97.771 BID 98.021 ASK 98.024 CHANGE 0.29% TIME 08 : 53:05

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low

Upwards scenario: Resistance at 98.16 (R1) limits possible upwards penetration. Break here is required to enable next interim target at 98.31 (R2) en route towards to final aim for today at 98.46 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, successful retest of our support level at 97.74 (S1) would clear the way for a downtrend expansion towards to our lower targets at 97.59 (S2) and 97.43 (S3) in potential

Resistance Levels: 98.16, 98.31, 98.46

Support Levels: 97.74, 97.59, 97.43

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

alayoua · October 22, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Oct 22 2013

Tuesday's NFP day, let's be careful out there

The big event of the day is the 18 day late publication of the NFP figures. Traders need to exercise caution as the figure might come in far better than predicted, but be subject to significant revisions due to the temporary govt. shutdown. The anticipation is for a print of 182K jobs created with the unemployment rate remaining steady at 7.3%. The benchmark 10-year yield rose two basis points, or 0.02 percentage point, to 2.60 percent as of 5 p.m in New York. The price of the 2.5 percent note due in August 2023 fell 6/32, or $1.88 per $1,000 face amount, to 99 1/8. The yield declined to 2.54 percent on Oct. 18th, the lowest since July 24th, down from a 2013 high of 3 percent on Sept. 6th.Treasury 10-year notes snapped a three-day advance before the NFP government report on Tuesday.

The yen fell 0.5 percent to 98.19 per dollar after gaining 1.1 percent during the previous two days. Japan’s currency declined 0.4 percent to 134.32 per euro and touched 134.38, the weakest level since Sept. 23rd. The dollar was little changed at $1.3681 per euro after gaining 0.3 percent earlier. The U.S. Dollar Index, which monitors the greenback versus a basket of 10 other major currencies, rose 0.2 percent to 1,004.55 late in New York. The gauge fell to 1,000.70 on Oct. 18th, the lowest intraday level since Feb. 13th, extending a weekly loss to 1 percent, the most in a month. The price of crude oil fell below $100 a barrel Monday after the U.S. government reported an increase in supplies. Metals prices were broadly higher and crop prices were mixed. Crude oil for November delivery fell $1.59, or 1.6 percent, to $99.22 a barrel in New York. That's the first close below $100 a barrel since July.

http://blog.fxcc.com/market-analysis

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :

2013-10-22 08:30 GMT | UK Public Sector Net Borrowing (Sep)

2013-10-22 12:30 GMT | US Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep)

2013-10-22 12:30 GMT | CA Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug)

2013-10-22 23:00 GMT | AU CB Leading Indicator (Aug)

FOREX NEWS :

2013-10-22 05:15 GMT | Good Chinese data leads to little movement in the markets; traders await US data

2013-10-22 05:09 GMT | Oil sits below $100, gold consolidates

2013-10-22 04:35 GMT | GBP/USD grinds slowly lower ahead of NFP data

2013-10-22 04:12 GMT | NFP likely no to have two-way directionality as usual - Rabobank

---------------------

EURUSD :

HIGH 1.36806 LOW 1.36622 BID 1.36711 ASK 1.36713 CHANGE -0.07% TIME 08 : 43:23

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Sideway

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Possibility of further price progress is seen above the next resistance level at 1.3688 (R1). Breakthrough here would suggest interim target at 1.3704 (R2) and then mark at 1.3721 (R3) acts as next attractive point. Downwards scenario: As long as price stays below the 20 SMA our technical outlook would be negative. Extension lower the key support level at 1.3651 (S1) is being able to drive market price towards to our next targets at 1.3635 (S2) and 1.3618 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3688, 1.3704, 1.3721

Support Levels: 1.3651, 1.3635, 1.3618

-------------------

GBPUSD

HIGH 1.61475 LOW 1.61154 BID 1.61274 ASK 1.61277 CHANGE -0.11% TIME 08 : 43:24

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Retracement formation remains in power. Our next resistive measure lies at 1.6148 (R1), break here is required to achieve higher targets at 1.6173 (R2) and 1.6199 (R3). Downwards scenario: Our bearish expectations remain intact below the key support level at 1.6115 (S1). Price penetration below it would allow further declines towards to lower targets at 1.6090 (S2) and 1.6065 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.6148, 1.6173, 1.6199

Support Levels: 1.6115, 1.6090, 1.6065

--------------------

USDJPY :

HIGH 98.364 LOW 98.136 BID 98.311 ASK 98.313 CHANGE 0.14% TIME 08 : 43:25

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Instrument gained momentum on the upside recently, turning short-term bias to the positive side. Next resistive structure on the way lies at 98.37 (R1), break here would suggest next intraday targets at 98.50 (R2) and 98.62 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, loss of our support level at 98.15 (S1) would open road for a market decline towards to our next target at 98.03 (S2). Any further price weakening would then be limited to final support at 97.90 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 98.37, 98.50, 98.62

Support Levels: 98.15, 98.03, 97.90

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

alayoua · October 24, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Oct 24 2013

Flash PMIs will dictate the market mood on Thursday

The DJIA closed down 0.35% on Wednesday, the recent rally, due to a temporary solution regarding the debt ceiling issue being agreed, may have now faded. The SPX closed down 0.47% and the NASDAQ down 0.57%. In Europe the STOXX index closed down 0.94%, reacting badly to the coming bank tests, the FTSE closed down 0.32%, CAC down 0.81%, DAX down 0.31%. The IBEX reacted badly to the bank test news despite crawling out of a deep recession, down 1.84% on the day. The MIB closed down 2.38%, with the Athens exchange hurting the most, down 3.82% on the day. Commodities once again endured a sell off on Wednesday, improved crude oil reserve numbers for the USA, up to 5.2 million barrels, caused WTI oil to fall by 1.22% to end at $97.10 per barrel on the day. The critical psyche level of $100 per barrel now being breached substantially with new medium term support levels being established. NYMEX natural rose by 1.06% to $3.62 per therm. COMEX gold was down 0.72% at $1333.00, with silver on COMEX down 1.01%. Equity index futures are pointing to a negative open in Europe followed by New York opening down. The DJIA equity index future is currently down 0.38%, NASDAQ down 0.42%, STOXX down 0.96%, FTSE down 0.40%, DAX down 0.35% The yen gained 0.8 percent to 134.12 per euro late in New York, after climbing as much as 1.2 percent, the biggest intraday advance since Aug. 27th. It depreciated to 135.51 Wednesday, the weakest level since November 2009. Japan’s currency strengthened 0.8 percent to 97.34 per dollar and touched 97.16, breaching its 200-day moving average at 97.28. The yen strengthened the most in eight weeks versus the euro as borrowing costs for Chinese banks jumped by the most since July affecting demand for safer assets.

http://blog.fxcc.com/market-analysis

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :

2013-10-24 07:58 GMT | EMU Markit Services PMI (Oct)

2013-10-24 14:00 GMT | US New Home Sales (MoM) (Sep)

2013-10-24 16:45 GMT | UK BOE's Governor Carney speech

2013-10-24 23:30 GMT | JP National Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Sep)

FOREX NEWS :

2013-10-24 05:07 GMT | EUR/USD continues to consolidate around 1.3780 area

2013-10-24 04:47 GMT | NZD/USD rejected off 0.8440 resistance, NZ Treasury report weighs

2013-10-24 04:20 GMT | USD/CHF breaks 2012 lows despite upbeat Chinese PMI

2013-10-24 03:06 GMT | GBP/JPY on EMA20 at 157.60

---------------------

EURUSD :

HIGH 1.37931 LOW 1.37733 BID 1.37921 ASK 1.37924 CHANGE 0.12% TIME 08 : 51:48

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Sideway

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Possibility of further market appreciation is seen above the resistance level at 1.3794 (R1). Break here is required to validate next targets at 1.3821 (R2) and 1.3846 (R3) Downwards scenario: On the other hand, progress below the initial support level at 1.3761 (S1) might initiate bearish pressure and expose our intraday targets at 1.3735 (S2) and 1.3710 (S3) later on today.

Resistance Levels: 1.3794, 1.3821, 1.3846

Support Levels: 1.3761, 1.3735, 1.3710

-----------------

GBPUSD :

HIGH 1.62025 LOW 1.61623 BID 1.61914 ASK 1.61917 CHANGE 0.18% TIME 08 : 51:49

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Measures of resistance might be activating if the pair approaches 1.6225 (R1) price level. Break here would suggest next interim target at 1.6257 (R2) and If the price keeps its momentum we expect an exposure of 1.6287 (R3). Downwards scenario: Possible downward penetration is limited now to support level at 1.6157 (S1). If the price manages to surpass it, we would suggest next intraday targets at 1.6128 (S2) and 1.6099 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.6225, 1.6257, 1.6287

Support Levels: 1.6157, 1.6128, 1.6099

-------------------

USDJPY :

HIGH 97.617 LOW 97.175 BID 97.597 ASK 97.599 CHANGE 0.24% TIME 08 : 51:50

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Sideway

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Corrective action is possible today. Clearance of next resistance level at 97.56 (R1) would suggest next intraday targets at 97.75 (R2) and 97.96 (R3) later on today. Downwards scenario: On the other side, current price pattern suggests bearish potential if the instrument manages to overcome key support level at 97.15 (S1). Further price regress is liable to expose our initial targets at 96.96 (S2) and 96.77 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 97.56, 97.75, 97.96

Support Levels: 97.15, 96.96, 96.77

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

alayoua · October 29, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Oct 29 2013

FOMC meeting starts as speculation mounts regarding potential taper of monetary easing programme

Naturally most investor eyes will be fixed on any announcements from the first day of the FOMC meeting, clues as to tapering will be hawkishly observed. Net lending to individuals in the UK should print at 2.5 billion up from 1.6 billion the previous month. Similarly mortgage approvals should rise to 65K from 62K the previous month. Retail sales in the USA are expected to print at 0.2% up, with PPI up 0.2%. Annual house prices in the USA are expected to be up 12.4% year on year. The USA Conference Board sentiment index is expected in at 75.2 a fall from 79.7 the previous month. The bank of Canada governor Poloz is due to testify, along with Senior Deputy Governor Tiff Macklem, before the House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance, in Ottawa. The DJIA closed down 0.01% on Monday, the SPX up 0.13% and the NASDAQ down 0.08%. European indices were mixed, STOXX index down 0.42%, FTSE up 0.07%, CAC down 0.48%, DAX down 0.03%. The Athens exchange once again bucked the trend by closing up 1.37%. Commodities rallied on Monday, ICE WTI oil finished the day up 0.85% at $98.68 per barrel, NYMEX natural down 0.17% at $3.56 per therm, COMEX gold closed up 0.04% on the day at $1352.70 and silver down 0.06% at $22.52 per ounce. Oil rallied amid a drop in Libyan output and bets that central banks in America and Japan will maintain monetary stimulus. Looking towards the European open STOXX equity index future is down 0.36%, FTSE up 0.24%, CAC down 0.46% and DAX down 0.03%. The DJIA equity index future is currently down 0.03%, SPX down 0.02% and the NASDAQ down 0.27%.

http://blog.fxcc.com/market-analysis

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :

2013-10-29 09:30 GMT | UK Mortgage Approvals (Sep)

2013-10-29 12:30 GMT | US Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep)

2013-10-29 14:00 GMT | US Consumer Confidence (Oct)

2013-10-29 23:50 GMT | JP Industrial Production (YoY) (Sep)

FOREX NEWS :

2013-10-29 03:16 GMT | GBP/USD glued to 1.6085 support

2013-10-29 02:55 GMT | USD/JPY exhausts after recovering session losses around 97.60

2013-10-29 02:03 GMT | AUD/USD emerges from 0.9515 2-week lows; consolidating above 0.9540

2013-10-29 01:21 GMT | EUR/USD pulling back gently. Is it anticipating bad data out of the US?

-----------------

EURUSD

HIGH 1.37937 LOW 1.37693 BID 1.37856 ASK 1.37858 CHANGE 0% TIME 08 : 40:07

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Neutral

TREND CONDITION : Sideway

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Possibility of market strengthening is seen above the immediate resistive barrier at 1.3818 (R1). Clearance here would suggest next interim target at 1.3845 (R2) and then final aim locates at 1.3872 (R3). Downwards scenario: As long as price stays below the next resistance level our technical outlook would be negative. Next on tap is support level at 1.3769 (S1). Penetration below this mark would suggest next targets at 1.3741 (S2) and 1.3714 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3818, 1.3845, 1.3872

Support Levels: 1.3769, 1.3741, 1.3714

----------------

GBPUSD :

HIGH 1.61442 LOW 1.60643 BID 1.61024 ASK 1.61033 CHANGE -0.24% TIME 08 : 40:07

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Our next resistance level is placed at 1.6137 (R1). Break here would open route towards to higher target at 1.6161 (R2) and any further price advance would then be limited to 1.6185 (R3).Downwards scenario: On the other hand, possible downside expansion might face next hurdle at 1.6063 (S1). Break here is required to initiate bearish pressure and validate our immediate targets at 1.6040 (S2) and 1.6019 (S3) in potential.

Resistance Levels: 1.6137, 1.6161, 1.6185

Support Levels: 1.6063, 1.6040, 1.6019

---------------

USDJPY :

HIGH 97.717 LOW 97.462 BID 97.540 ASK 97.542 CHANGE -0.14% TIME 08 : 40:08

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Clearance of our next resistive barrier at 97.74 (R1) might push the price towards to our next visible targets at 97.87 (R2) and 98.00 (R3). Downwards scenario: Activation of bearish forces is possible below the support level at 97.44 (S1). Clearance here would suggest next interim target at 97.31 (S2) and if the price holds its momentum we would suggest final aim at 97.18 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 97.74, 97.87, 98.00

Support Levels: 97.44, 97.31, 97.18

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

alayoua · November 1, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Nov 01 2013

USA final manufacturing print scheduled to come in at 51.2 whilst investors await FOMC member Bullard's comments

The latest seasonally adjusted Australian Industry Group Australian Performance of Manufacturing Index (Australian PMI) improved by 1.5 points in October, rising to 53.2 points. This was the second consecutive month that the Australian PMI has moved above 50 points, indicating mild expansion across the manufacturing industry. Several PMIs are published on Friday, the first is the UK's manufacturing PMI expected to come in at 56.3. The USA final manufacturing PMI is scheduled to print at 51.2. In the USA FOMC member Bullard will speak in the afternoon, where we'll also receive the ISM prints for manufacturing. Equity index futures are mainly positive at the time of writing; the DJIA is up 0.21%, SPX up 0.15% and the NASDAQ equity index future is up 0.17%. The if FTSE is down 0.64%, CAC up 0.62% and DAX up 0.23%. The benchmark 10-year yield rose two basis points on Thursday, or 0.02 percentage points, to 2.55 percent at 5 p.m. New York time after touching 2.57 percent, the highest since Oct. 22nd. It earlier fell four basis points to 2.50 percent. The 2.5 percent note maturing in August 2023 dropped 1/8, or $1.25 per $1,000 face amount, to 99 17/32. Ten-year note yields have fallen six basis points this month after sliding 17 basis points in September. Europe’s 17-nation currency slid 1.1 percent to $1.3584 late in New York time Thursday and fell by as much as 1.2 percent, the biggest intraday drop seen since April 17th. The euro sank by 1.3 percent to 133.60 yen. Japan’s currency gained 0.2 percent to 98.36 per dollar after depreciating yesterday to 98.68, the weakest level since Oct. 17th.

http://blog.fxcc.com/market-analysis

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :

2013-11-01 08:30 GMT | SW SVME - Purchasing Managers' Index (Oct)

2013-11-01 09:28 GMT | UK Markit Manufacturing PMI (Oct)

2013-11-01 13:58 GMT | US Markit Manufacturing PMI (Oct)

2013-11-01 14:00 GMT | US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Oct)

FOREX NEWS :

2013-11-01 06:23 GMT | AUD/USD upwards on beating Chinese Manufacturing PMI

2013-11-01 05:37 GMT | EUR/JPY getting hammered as stops are creating snowball effect; 132.77 is short-term support

2013-11-01 04:04 GMT | USD/JPY sellers blow 98.00 support

2013-11-01 03:56 GMT | GBP/USD still hovering above short-term support at 1.6008; more downside expected

EURUSD :

HIGH 1.35894 LOW 1.35398 BID 1.35504 ASK 1.35509 CHANGE -0.24% TIME 08 : 47:05

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Down trend

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Current price setup is looking for upwards extension possibility. Risk of the price acceleration is seen above the key resistance level at 1.3597 (R1). Clearance here would put immediate focus on the next targets at 1.3629 (R2) and then 1.3662 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the downside, support level at 1.3539 (S1) prevent further downtrend development. Successful penetration below it would open a path towards to next intraday targets at 1.3507 (S2) and 1.3475 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3597, 1.3629, 1.3662

Support Levels: 1.3539, 1.3507, 1.3475

-----------------------

GBPUSD :

HIGH 1.60463 LOW 1.60169 BID 1.60285 ASK 1.60292 CHANGE -0.04% TIME 08 : 47:05

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Sideway

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: GBPUSD trapped to the consolidation phase on the hourly chart frame. Break of resistive level at 1.6070 (R1) is required to enable upwards action. Next visible targets are seen at 1.6100 (R2) and 1.6131 (R3). Downwards scenario: Possible descending structure formation might get more stimulus if the price manages to overcome our next support level at 1.5998 (S1). Clearance here would suggest initial targets at 1.5966 (S2) and 1.5935 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.6070, 1.6100, 1.6131

Support Levels: 1.5998, 1.5966, 1.5935

-----------------

USDJPY :

HIGH 98.382 LOW 97.809 BID 97.961 ASK 97.965 CHANGE -0.4% TIME 08 : 47:06

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: From the technical side, short - term tendency is bearish, however price appreciation is possible above the resistance level at 98.09 (R1). Loss here would open way towards to next targets at 98.30 (R2) and 98.51 (R3). Downwards scenario: Possible downtrend development may encounter supportive measure at 97.87 (S1). Penetration through this level would targeting then supportive means at 97.58 (S2) and 97.37 (S3) in potential.

Resistance Levels: 98.09, 98.30, 98.51

Support Levels: 97.78, 97.58, 97.37

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

alayoua · November 5, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Nov 05 2013

China's Li sets min GDP at 7,2%, warns against stimulus

The Chinese economy should keep its growth rate levels at 7.2% or above to keep generating enough jobs, said Premier Li Keqiang, also underscoring that relying too much on short term liquidity injections/stimulus should not be the primary focus as it risks similar fiscal problems faced by the Euro zone. Based on early projections, Li said Q3 economic indicators are in line to meet yearly targets, while warning looser policies should be avoided, saying that money supply - M2 - stands at a dangerous CNY100 trillion, twice China's GDP. According to Li, cited by MNI, in comments made in an October 21 speech made public Monday: "We have too much money in the pool. If we print more money, it may cause inflation. We all know bad inflation will not only disturb markets but also have big side effects and pressure people's lives and even cause panic."

http://blog.fxcc.com/market-analysis

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :

2013-11-05 10:00 GMT | European Commission Releases Economic Growth Forecasts

2013-11-05 15:00 GMT | US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Oct)

2013-11-05 21:45 GMT | NZ Unemployment Rate (Q3)

2013-11-05 23:50 GMT | BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

FOREX NEWS :

2013-11-05 06:27 GMT | EUR/JPY tumbles alongside with Nikkei decline

2013-11-05 06:02 GMT | NZD/USD tumbled on RBA comments; now slightly higher

2013-11-05 04:19 GMT | EUR/USD at risk of 1.34 - Westpac

2013-11-05 03:35 GMT | RBA keeps neutral statement, AUD uncomfortably high

----------------------

EURUSD :

HIGH 1.35225 LOW 1.3491 BID 1.34972 ASK 1.34977 CHANGE -0.13% TIME 08:45:23

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Down trend

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Price strengthening is possible above the next resistance level at 1.3526 (R1). Our interim target holds at 1.3553 (R2) en route to our final aim for today at 1.3581(R3). Downwards scenario: Opportunity for bearish oriented traders is seen below the important support level at 1.3478 (S1). Loss here would open door for the downtrend expansion towards to interim targets at 1.3453 (S2) and 1.3427 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3526, 1.3553, 1.3581

Support Levels: 1.3478, 1.3453, 1.3427

-----------------------

GBPUSD :

HIGH 1.59821 LOW 1.59553 BID 1.59649 ASK 1.59657 CHANGE -0.02% TIME 08:45:24

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: GBPUSD is approaching our next resistance level at 1.5983 (R1), keeping the short-term ascending structure intact. The break here is required for the price appreciation towards to next target at 1.6007 (R2) and any further rise would then be targeting to 1.6034 (R3). Downwards scenario: Risk of price depreciation is seen below the support level at 1.5940 (S1). A fall below it might initiate retracement formation towards to next support at 1.5916 (S2) and any further market decline would then be targeting final support at 1.5892 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5983, 1.6007, 1.6034

Support Levels: 1.5940, 1.5916, 1.5892

-----------------------

USDJPY :

HIGH 98.674 LOW 98.24 BID 98.446 ASK 98.448 CHANGE -0.16% TIME 08:45:27

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Immediate resistance at 98.71 (R1) remains in near-term focus, climb above this level might open way towards to next interim target at 98.92 (R2) and any further rise would then be limited to final resistive measure at 99.15 (R3) Downwards scenario: Any penetration below the support level at 98.23 (S1) might create more scope for the instrument weakness in near-term perspective. We are looking to our immediate supports at 98.01 (S2) and 97.80 (S3) as next possible targets.

Resistance Levels: 98.71, 98.92, 99.15

Support Levels: 98.23, 98.01, 97.80

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

alayoua · November 6, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Nov 06 2013

Will the European service PMI point to increased growth, or increased stagnation?

We receive a raft of PMIs in the morning trading session on Wednesday; the most eagerly anticipated being the European final services PMI expected to print at 50.9, no change from the previous month. The UK manufacturing and production figures are published, expected in at 1.2% and 0.7% respectively. European retail sales are predicted to fall by 0.3%, whilst Germany's factory orders are expected to rise by 0.6%. Canada's building permits are expected to rise to 7.8% from the disastrous figure of -21.2% the previous month. Later in the evening the unemployment numbers for Australia are published with the expectation that the number will come in at 5.7%. Looking towards the market open/s for Wednesday the DJIA equity index future is currently flat, as is the SPX and NASDAQ. The European equity indices are down; STOXX off 0.82%, FTSE down 0.39%, CAC down 0.88% and DAX down 0.31%. Oil fell badly on Tuesday, ICE WTI oil down 1.32% on the day at $93.37 per barrel. Now that the critical psyche level of $100 per barrel has been breached the commodity appears to be in free-fall. NYMEX natural closed up 0.38% at $3.48 per therm. COMEX gold closed up on the day by 0.28% at $1311.70 per ounce with silver down 0.03% at $21.70 per ounce.

http://blog.fxcc.com/market-analysis

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :

2013-11-06 09:00 GMT | UK Industrial Production (YoY) (Sep)

2013-11-06 10:00 GMT | EMU Retail Sales (YoY) (Sep)

2013-11-06 12:00 GMT | US MBA Mortgage Applications (Nov 1)

2013-11-06 15:00 GMT | UK NIESR GDP Estimate (3M) (Oct)

FOREX NEWS :

2013-11-06 06:52 GMT | EUR/USD recovers 1.3500

2013-11-06 06:26 GMT | GBP/JPY skyrockets as Nikkei soars on Toyota gains

2013-11-06 04:33 GMT | USD/JPY soars as Nikkei up 1% above 14.400; also boosted by EUR/JPY rally

2013-11-06 03:18 GMT | GBP/USD tripping stops, targets 1.61

-------------------

EURUSD :

HIGH 1.35213 LOW 1.34676 BID 1.35060 ASK 1.35064 CHANGE 0.23% TIME 08 : 50:42

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Market sentiment has improved for the bullish oriented traders. Fractals level at 1.3524 (R1) offers a key resistance level. Break here would suggest higher targets at 1.3553 (R2) and 1.3581(R3). Downwards scenario: Any downside extension is limited now to the next support level at 1.3478 (S1). Below here we see potential for the price acceleration towards to next targets at 1.3453 (S2) and 1.3427 (S3) in potential.

Resistance Levels: 1.3524, 1.3553, 1.3581

Support Levels: 1.3478, 1.3453, 1.3427

--------------------

GBPUSD :

HIGH 1.60957 LOW 1.60417 BID 1.60849 ASK 1.60855 CHANGE 0.26% TIME 08 : 50:43

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Further price appreciation is a likely scenario for today according to the technical readings. If the pair manages to clear the barrier at 1.6104 (R1), we would suggest next targets at 1.6127 (R2) and 1.6149 (R3). Downwards scenario: An evidence of possible descending structure could be provided if the GBPUSD manages to surpass next support level at 1.6062 (S1). In such case we would suggest next intraday targets at 1.6040 (S2) and 1.6016 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.6104, 1.6127, 1.6149

Support Levels: 1.6062, 1.6040, 1.6016

------------------

USDJPY :

HIGH 98.755 LOW 98.409 BID 98.620 ASK 98.624 CHANGE 0.12% TIME 08 : 50:43

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: USDJPY resumed upwards penetration today and we see potential to expose our intraday targets at 98.95 (R2) and 99.15 (R3) if the price manages to overcome key resistance measure at 98.76 (R1). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, possible correction development would face next hurdle at 98.41 (S1). Break here is required to open road towards to our next interim target at 98.22 (S2), en route to final aim at 98.03 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 98.76, 98.95, 99.15

Support Levels: 98.41, 98.22, 98.03

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

alayoua · November 7, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Nov 07 2013

Interest rate settings in Europe and USA GDP take centre stage on Thursday

It's a day of rate setting decisions in Europe on Thursday; the UK's BoE MPC is predicted to leave base rates at 0.5% and the quantitative easing levels at $375 bn. The ECB is also predicted to leave base rates at their current level at 0.50% the accompanying press statement may indicated when (and if) the ECB may alter that plan. In the USA the GDP figures are released, expected to come in at 2.0%, whilst unemployment claims for the week are expected to stay in the stubborn range at circa 336K. Later in the afternoon the ECB president Mario Draghi will hold court at a press gathering explaining the current economic situation in Europe and the decisions made earlier regarding the rate setting. Later in the evening the trade balance for China is expected to print at 23.5 billion up from 15.2 billion the previous month, whilst Australia's RBA delivers its monetary policy statement. Looking towards Thursday's market open the DJIA equity index future is currently up 0.86%, the SPX up 0.52%. The FTSE equity index future is up 0.16%, CAC up 0.82% and the DAX up 0.37% all indices suggesting a positive open across the majority of bourses. The euro strengthened 0.3 percent to $1.3513 late in New York on Wednesday after declining to $1.3442 on Nov. 4th, the weakest level since Sept. 18th. The common currency rose 0.4 percent to 133.31 yen. The dollar strengthened 0.2 percent to 98.66 yen.

http://blog.fxcc.com/market-analysis

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :

2013-11-07 12:00 GMT | BoE Interest Rate Decision

2013-11-07 12:45 GMT | ECB Interest Rate Decision (Nov 7)

2013-11-07 13:30 GMT | EMU ECB Monetary policy statement and press conference

2013-11-07 13:30 GMT | USA Gross Domestic Product Annualized (Q3)

FOREX NEWS :

2013-11-07 05:57 GMT | EUR/GBP off of session lows as traders position themselves ahead of BOE and ECB

2013-11-07 05:14 GMT | Is fading Euro strength the best play of the week?

2013-11-07 04:34 GMT | GBP/JPY capped by 159.00

2013-11-07 03:49 GMT | GBP/USD trading off session lows ahead of Bank of England decision and commentary

------------------

EURUSD :

HIGH 1.35288 LOW 1.35006 BID 1.35247 ASK 1.35249 CHANGE 0.08% TIME 08 : 52:53

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Possibility of market strengthening is seen above the resistance level at 1.3548 (R1). Clearance here is required to validate next interim target at 1.3572 (R2) and any further rise would then be targeting mark at 1.3596 (R3). Downwards scenario: An important technical level at 1.3500 (S1) prevents possible market weakening. Break here is required to open road towards to interim target at 1.3476 (S2) en route to final aim at 1.3451 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3548, 1.3572, 1.3596

Support Levels: 1.3500, 1.3476, 1.3451

------------------------

GBPUSD :

HIGH 1.60914 LOW 1.60655 BID 1.60835 ASK 1.60844 CHANGE 0.03% TIME 08 : 52:53

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: Further buying interest might arise above the resistance at 1.6117 (R1). Clearance here would suggest next intraday target at 1.6138 (R2) and if the price holds its momentum we can expect an exposure of 1.6158 (R3). Downwards scenario: Our next supportive measure locates at 1.6065 (S1). Break here is required to enable correction action towards to next target at 1.6043 (S2). Final support for today locates at 1.6023 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.6117, 1.6138, 1.6158

Support Levels: 1.6065, 1.6043, 1.6023

---------------------

USDJPY :

HIGH 98.748 LOW 98.556 BID 98.635 ASK 98.639 CHANGE -0.02% TIME 08 : 52:54

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: Possibility of upwards action is seen above the next resistance level at 98.76 (R1). Clearance here is required to let the price achieve our higher intraday targets at 1.3703 (R2) and 1.3724 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, current range pattern on the hourly chart suggest possible retest of our supportive measure at 98.52 (S1). Break here is required to open way towards to initial targets at 98.38 (S2) and 98.24 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 98.76, 98.92, 99.07

Support Levels: 98.52, 98.38, 98.24

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

alayoua · November 8, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Nov 08 2013

The markets expect a very poor NFP print of circa 121K.

European news events in the morning session mainly concern the UK's balance of payments, expected in at -9.1billion and Germany's trade balance is expected in at +17.2 billion. North American employment figures for Canada and the USA are published in the afternoon trading session. Canada's unemployment rate is expected to rise to 7.0%, whilst the NFP jobs report for the USA is predicted to show that only 121K jobs were created in October. The unemployment rate in the USA may climb to 7.3%. The preliminary University of Michigan sentiment report is published expected to show a figure of 74.6. China delivers a raft of information late on Friday evening, the high impact news items will centre on the inflation levels, CPI expected in at 3.3%, new loans at circa 800 bn, and industrial production expected in at 10.1% up year on year. NYMEX WTI oil closed down on the day by 0.63% at $94.20 per barrel, NYMEX natural gas closed up on the day 0.60%, COMEX gold closed down 0.71% at $1308.50 per ounce, COMEX silver down 0.50% at $21.66 per ounce. Equity index futures are pointing to the main European and USA markets opening in negative territory. The DJIA is down 0.64%, the SPX down 1.16%, the NASDAQ down 1.67%. STOXX future is down 0.33%, DAX future up 0.51%, CAC future down 0.14%, and the UK FTSE future is down 0.73%.

http://blog.fxcc.com/market-analysis

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :

2013-11-08 07:00 GMT | DE Trade Balance s.a. (Sep)

2013-11-08 09:30 GMT | UK Total Trade Balance (Sep)

2013-11-08 13:30 GMT | US Nonfarm Payrolls (Oct)

2013-11-08 13:30 GMT | CA Unemployment Rate (Oct)

FOREX NEWS :

2013-11-08 06:13 GMT | S&P downgrades France to AA from AA+, outlook stable

2013-11-08 05:49 GMT | AUD/USD peels back to opening levels

2013-11-08 05:00 GMT | USD/CHF well above the 0.9150 area

2013-11-08 04:56 GMT | US Non-Farm Payrolls will likely continue the volatility party that started Thursday

----------------------

EURUSD :

HIGH 1.34241 LOW 1.33885 BID 1.33984 ASK 1.33987 CHANGE -0.15% TIME 08 : 40:29

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Appreciation above the resistance at 1.3453 (R1) might commence new step of the ascending structure. Our intraday targets today are placed at 1.3502 (R2) and 1.3551 (R3). Downwards scenario: Risk of possible price depreciation is seen below the support at 1.3296 (S1). Loss here might enable bearish pressure and drive market price towards to next targets at 1.3248 (S2) and 1.3199 (S3) later on today.

Resistance Levels: 1.3453, 1.3502, 1.3551

Support Levels: 1.3296, 1.3248, 1.3199

-----------------

GBPUSD :

HIGH 1.6102 LOW 1.60784 BID 1.60945 ASK 1.60947 CHANGE 0.01% TIME 08 : 40:29

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: We see potential of market strengthening in near-term perspective. Next on tap is seen resistance level at 1.6117 (R1). Break here would suggest next intraday targets at 1.6138 (R2) and 1.6158 (R3). Downwards scenario: Break of support at 1.6065 (S1) is required to determine negative intraday bias and enable lower target at 1.6043 (S2). Clearance of this target would open a path towards to final support at 1.6023 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.6117, 1.6138, 1.6158

Support Levels: 1.6065, 1.6043, 1.6023

-----------------

USDJPY :

HIGH 98.255 LOW 98.039 BID 98.107 ASK 98.109 CHANGE 0.03% TIME 08 : 40:30

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: On the upside resistive structure at 98.27 (R1) prevents possible gains. Clearance here is required to open route towards to next target at 98.41 (R2) and then final target could be triggered at 98.55 (R3). Downwards scenario: Current price pattern suggests bearish potential if the pair manages to overcome next support level at 97.89 (S1). Possible price regress could expose our initial targets at 97.75 (S2) and 97.62 (S3) later on today.

Resistance Levels: 98.27, 98.41, 98.55

Support Levels: 97.89, 97.75, 97.62

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

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Daily Forex Analysis from FXCC

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