Technical signals from Forex4you

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: short-term down-trend resuming

 

The pair has broken out of the sideways range which started forming on the 12th of June and moved lower, reaching a target for the pattern at 101.30. There is a possibility it could start to consolidate at this level, as it has now fulfilled its minimum price objective.

 

The bigger picture suggests that the pair could fall even lower, eventually, as it continues the move down started after the January peak. The next target could be the 100.88 lows, although eventually 99.50 is possible. A break below 101.30 would provide confirmation.

 

Price action since the Jan highs could be characterised as an unfinished a-b-c correction, with waves 'a' and 'b' complete and 'c' in its early stages. Indeed an Elliot wave perspective would probably label it as an a-b-c move after the impulse higher in 2012-13.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/USDJPY27.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: trending up, near 200-day

 

The pair has risen up to a line of resistance formed by previous highs at around 1.3645. It is expected to continue rising as it extends the very short-term up-trend, next targeting the 200-day at 1.3669.

 

A bullish cup-and-handle pattern has probably formed at the lows, visible on the 4-hour chart, with a break above the lip at 1.3667 probably signalling a spike higher. The 200 and 50-day MA's however are situated just above and expected to provide further resistance, so a clearance of these obstacles, including a margin of 20 pips might help add confidence, with a move above 1.3712 adding confirmation of a breakout higher, to a target at 1.3836, which is the depth of the price pattern extrapolated higher.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/EURUSD30.png

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: strong up-trend continuing

 

Cable has continued higher in line with expectations, and both the mid, short and very short-term trends, and it is expected to continue higher, as there are little signs of weakness. A break above the 1.7050 level would provide confirmation of the next move up, with a target at 1.7120, where an old trend-line provides resistance. If the current pull-back falls any further, I would expect it to reach support at 1.6950 before resuming the dominant up-trend.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/GBPUSD30.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: rally up to resistance from 50-day MA

 

The pair has now reached key resistance from the 50-day MA at 1.3692 and is currently pulling back. It is expected to continue higher given the strength of the move already. There has also been a break above the lip of a bullish cup-and-handle pattern visible on the 4-hour chart, and the 200-day MA.

 

The very short-term up-trend is expected to extend higher, and a break above the 1.3712 level would confirm clearance above the 50-day MA. The breakout from the cup-and-handle pattern has generated an eventual upside target of 1.3836, although the R1 monthly pivot at 1.3759 provides a closer price objective.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/EURUSD01.png

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: correction continuing lower

 

The overall picture is bearish as the pair continues the move down which started after the January peak. The next target could be the 100.88 lows, although eventually 99.50 is possible. A break below the 101.23 lows would provide bearish confirmation.

 

Price action from the January highs could be characterised as an unfinished a-b-c correction, with waves 'a' and 'b' complete, and 'c' still forming. In Elliot wave terms the move is a clear correction of the text-book 5 wave impulse higher which unfolded in 2012-13.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/USDJPY01.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: consolidating in up-trend

 

The EUR/USD pair is pulling-back after reaching the 50-day MA at 1.3690. It has now corrected back to the 200-day at 1.3673, where it is currently consolidating. It could be forming a small bull-flag with a target at 1.3800. Volatility today may be subdued since it is the day before the important Non-Farm Payrolls release in the U.S, when more volatility is highly likely.

 

The very short-term trend is up and likely to continue. The cup-and-handle pattern on the 4-hour chart still has a way to go before reaching its target at 1.3836, although there is tough resistance to overcome above from the 50-day MA and the trend-line from the 2008 highs.

 

The expectation is for more upside, although tomorrow's data release will be a key factor. As I said before, a break above 1.3712 would probably clearly indicate a continuation higher, with the next target at 1.3760, followed by 1.3800.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/EURUSD02.png

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: bullish continuation signal

 

Cable is rising in a strong up-trend clearly visible on all time-frames. In addition, there was a high-probability continuation set-up on Monday indicating the bull run will probably continue higher to an eventual potential target at 1.7265. There are also no signs of weakness. The pair is therefore expected to continue its up-trend, with a break above the 1.7176 highs providing confirmation, followed by a move up to the next target, possibly at the upper border of the channel at 1.7220, or even at 1.7250 where the R1 monthly pivot is situated.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/GBPUSD02.png

[joaquinmonfort]

AUD/USD: breakout from triangle stalls

 

Price has broken out of the right-angled triangle which formed on the 4-hour chart, reaching the R1 monthly pivot at 0.9505. It has since pulled back from the pivot, falling back down to support at 0.9455.The very short-term trend is still up and expected to resume, eventually.

 

Before the very short-term up-trend resumes, however, it is possible there will be one further move down, once the current, small sideways, consolidation completes. This could take pair down to 0.9420 temporarily. Confirmation would come from a break below 0.9445.

 

Once the correction is complete – or even before - the pair will probably resume its up-trend. A break above 0.9467 would probably lead to a move back up to the 0.9505 highs and the R1 monthly pivot. A move above 0.9525 would confirm a clear breach of the pivot and continuation of the rally up to 0.9565 – the triangle's price objective.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/AUDUSD02b.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: v.short-term trend turns down

 

The very short-term trend has changed and started falling. On the 4-hr chart peak and trough progression has now reversed to down. This trend is expected to extend.

 

Currently the exchange rate is bouncing strongly, however, a cluster of moving averages in the 1.3600-10 zone limit upside and there is a possibility of a resumption of the down-trend at this level. Even if it breaks above, the monthly pivot at 1.3630 is also a strong level of resistance, limiting upside potential.

 

There is support from the S1 monthly pivot at 1.3564 and this would have to be broken, including a 20-pip margin for confirmation of a continuation lower, with the next target down, situated at a major trend-line, at 1.3500. The 50-day has fallen below the 200-day but the 200-day is still rising so it is not a strong death cross signal.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/EURUSD07.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: sideways trend extending

 

Broadly USD/JPY continues oscillating in a sideways consolidation. After reaching the range lows last Monday, the exchange rate bounced and began to rise again. We had 3 up days in a row, which is a bullish continuation sign. Now there has been a pull-back temporarily. Like the broader sideways move, the trend on the 4-hour chart remains unclear.

 

Overall I am slightly more bullish than bearish and expect a continuation higher. The current pull-back, adds up to 3 waves and could be an a-b-c correction of the budding up-trend. A break above the 102.19 highs would probably mark such a resumption, although resistance from the R1 monthly pivot not much higher at 102.30 leaves little scope for gain. There is further resistance from the range highs at 102.60.

 

The pull-back is unlikely to fall below 101.77, although a clearance below the pivot by penetrating 101.57 could indicate more downside to the range lows at 101.19.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/USDJPY07.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: short-term down-trend resuming

 

The pair has rolled over after bouncing up to just above 1.3600 and is now resuming its descent. It is in a very short-term down-trend which is likely to extend. The rate is currently at 1.3590 and will probably fall to the level of the S1 monthly pivot at 1.3564. Ideally I would want to see a break below the 1.3586 current day lows before expecting a follow-on lower.

 

The S1 monthly pivot will almost certainly stall further downside but a move below a 20 pip margin under the pivot - below 1.3544, would provide confidence of a clear breakthrough and an extension down, with the key 1.3500 lows the next target, thereafter.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/EURUSD08.png

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: double-top reversal pattern

 

The very short-term trend has changed and is now bearish, and as such is expected to continue moving down. The exchange rate may have formed a double top reversal pattern at the highs with a neckline which has just been breached at 1.7092. If so then the pair will probably fall further, full-filling the target for the pattern at 1.7010. A break below the 1.7083 current day lows would provide added confirmation that the double top was valid and breaking down towards its target.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/GBPUSD08.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: down-trend probably resuming

 

The pair was completed a classic a-b-c correction after selling off following last Thursday's Non-Farm Payrolls release. A long sell candle has formed on the 4-hour charts at the top of wave 'c' indicating the very short term down-trend is probably about to resume. A move below 1.3605 would provide confirmation of further down-side initially down to 1.3564 where the S1 monthly pivot is situated.

 

As I said yesterday, the S1 monthly pivot will almost certainly support prices and a move below a 20 pip margin under the pivot - below 1.3544, would be required to confirm a breach, with the key 1.3500 lows the next target, thereafter.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/EURUSD09.png

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: pulling-back in down-trend

 

USD/JPY has resumed its down-trend on the 4-hour chart after completing an a-b-c correction higher. It is currently recovering again but this is expected to only be a temporary correction before the down-trend once again resumes. A break below 101.56 would probably provide confirmation of such a move, with a target at the 101.22 lows initially, and then 100.81.

 

Overall the weekly chart shows the pair oscillating in sideways move, and it indicates that the pair will probably break lower after the consolidation completes. It fell from the January highs before entering the consolidation and so should continue that trend afterwards.

 

The extremely low volatility for the past 6 months warns that when a breakout occurs it will probably be accompanied by high volatility, with a break lower possibly fuelled by a sudden rise in risk aversion following the development of a crisis.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/USDJPY09.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: finding support at pivot

 

The very short term trend is now up, after the break above the 1.3630 highs, and it is expected to continue. A move above the 1.3650 highs could provide confirmation of further upside, however, the 50-day MA at 1.3660, only 10-pips above, and the 200-day at 1.3674 are both formidable levels of resistance which are likely to block further upside.

 

Despite its short-term up-trend the pair is currently pulling-back and has just found support from the monthly pivot at 1.3630, where it is pausing. It is unlikely to break below this level and its current position is a good place for the start of a recovery. If it does go lower, there is further support at the 1.3615 from a trend-line.

 

The pair is stuck between two strong support and resistance zones and there is a possibility it will simply go sideways. The very short-term up-trend, however, indicates more upside and a test of the MA's at 1.3560-74. A clearance of these including a 20 pip margin would be required for confirmation of a breakout higher.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/EURUSD10.png

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: falling within sideways range

 

Instead of breaking down as expected the pair has continued moving in a sideways consolidation. The double-top pattern has failed and the pair has moved back inside the range. It is currently falling within its consolidation range. It will probably reach the range lows near the neckline of the double-top at 1.7090. There is a possibility the v. short-term trend is still down and could move lower. A clean break below the 1.7083 neckline lows would open the way to move down, and a target equaling the width of the consolidation extrapolated lower, at 1.7010.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/GBPUSD10b.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: range-bound; upside bias

 

The sideways consolidation which began on the 4th July extends. After falling to the range lows in the 1.3580s the exchange rate suddenly spiked higher again, almost reaching the range highs at 1.3650.

 

The mid-term trend is still up and this biases the short-term outlook to the upside. Eventually once the consolidation has completed there is a possibility of a breakout higher. The 50-day at 1.3655, and 200-day at 1.3674, however, could prove major obstacles to more upside, and even if cleared there is further resistance from the major trend-line drawn from the 2008 highs at around 1.3700, leaving little scope for gain.

 

Therefore, for a strong continuation signal higher, I would want to see a break above 1.3720, confirming the clearance of the 2008 trend-line. This would then target the R1 pivot at 1.3760.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/EURUSD14.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: still range-bound; upside bias

 

The EUR/USD pair continues moving within a range-bound consolidation which began on the 4th July. The exchange rate pulled back temporarily after spiking higher yesterday and almost reaching the range highs.

 

Due to the fact that the mid-term trend is bullish, the pair will probably eventually breakout to the upside. There is, however, formidable resistance lying directly above from the 50-day MA and the 200-day MA at 1.3645 and 1.3675 respectively. Even if these obstacles are cleared the major trend-line drawn from the 2008 highs is situated at around 1.3695.

 

Therefore, for a strong continuation signal higher, I would want to see a break above 1.3715, confirming the clearance of the 2008 trend-line. This would then target the R1 pivot at 1.3760.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/EURUSD15.png

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: pulling-back in down-trend

 

The USD/JPY is consolidating in a large formation on the daily and weekly chart. The pattern looks a little like a right-angled triangle and may have bearish tendencies. The pair fell from the January highs before forming the consolidation and so should continue that down-trend afterwards. The current low volatility climate is often a characteristic which precedes sudden breakouts, indicating a possible crisis on the horizon.

 

The pair has started to rise within the consolidation after touching support at the 101.05 range lows on its last leg down. It has rebounded higher from there, reaching 101.60, an almost 50% recovery of the preceding move. The very short-term trend remains down, however, so the pair is expected to start falling eventually. A break below 101.40 and the hourly MA's clustered just above, could signal a resumption of the down-trend, with an initial target at the range lows at 100.90.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/USDJPY15.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: falling towards support from major trend-line

 

The EUR/USD pair has broken below the S1 monthly pivot at 1.3564 and is currently moving lower. If it breaks below the 1.3544 confirmation level it will probably extend down to the level of the major trend-line drawn from June 2012 at 1.3517, which is expected to exert strong support.

 

The very short-term up-trend is now in doubt, although the short-term trend - which I define as roughly corresponding to the period of time since the move down from the May highs - is bearish. The medium term trend remains bullish – further complicating matters.

 

Ultimately the direction of the currency is dependent on the fate of the major trend-line at 1.3517. If it holds the mid-term bull will rise again; if it breaks we may see a strong move down and new price paradigm in the early 1.30s.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/EURUSD16b.png

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: upside bias remains despite volatility

 

Cable had been forming a flag pattern on the 4-hour chart but then some sudden volatile price moves led to a break – first of support to the down-side and then of resistance to the upside – all in one day. That up-move has since pulled-back into the range again where it is currently consolidating.

 

My expectations continue to be for a bullish continuation higher despite the strange volatile price action of the previous day, which technically speaking formed a key reversal. Because price action recovered after it broke lower and ended the day bullishly, however, I don;t see the key reversal as a strong bearish signal.

 

For a continuation of the trend higher, I would like to see a break above the previous day's new highs at 1.7190, with an initial target at the R1 monthly pivot situated at 1.7250.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/GBPUSD16.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: finding support at major trend-line

 

The EUR/USD pair has fallen to the level of a major, mid-term trend-line drawn from the June 2012 lows. It has stalled in its down-trend and found support just above the trend-line, which is situated at 1.3505, and there is a strong possibility it could bounce from here to an upside target in the 1.3553-64 range.

 

The very short, and short-term trends are bearish and expected to probably continue, however, given the formidable support provided by the trend-line it is also possible the current level could provide a rebound level for the broader mid-term up-trend to reassert itself, therefore overall this marks a pivotal crossroads for the currency pair.

 

A clear break below the trend-line (including a 20-pip confirmation margin) at 1.3485 could signal a bearish continuation lower, down to the S2 monthly pivot at 1.3436. There is the possibility an H&S pattern has formed at the highs (since Nov 2013) which could indicate an even deeper fall, and an eventual target at 1.3000.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/EURUSD17.png

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: continuing in sideways consolidation

 

USD/JPY is forming a long sideways consolidation visible on both the daily and weekly charts. The pattern looks a little like a right-angled triangle and could forecast more downside if there is a break below the horizontal lower border. Given the trend preceding the pattern was down (from the Jan highs) it would be expected to continue afterwards. These sorts of low volatility formations often precede strong breakouts.

 

On lower timeframes the pair has been rising since it found support at the range lows. The very short-term trend is unclear – and the short-term trend is sideways. The pair has now started to sell-off again but it could go in either direction within the pattern.

 

The ADX indicator, which measures the strength of the trend, is at a 9-year super-low of 7.95 indicating a breakout may be close at hand. A move below the S1 pivot at the lower border line (including a 20-pip margin) of 100.55, it could indicate a downside break, eventually targeting 96.30, calculated by extrapolating the width of the consolidation.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/USDJPY17.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: consolidating on trend-line

 

The EUR/USD pair is consolidating at the level of a major, mid-term trend-line drawn from the June 2012 lows. It is in a short and very short-term down-trend although the 2012 trend-line is blocking further downside.

 

A clear break below the trend-line (including a 20-pip confirmation margin) at 1.3485, however, would generate an initial target at the S2 monthly pivot at 1.3436. It might indicate a major bearish mid-term reversal too. There is a possible H&S pattern at the highs (since Nov 2013) which could indicate an even deeper fall to a target at 1.3000.

 

A temporary bounce is also very possible given the strong support from the trend-line, with an upside target within the 1.3550-64 zone.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/EURUSD18.png

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: consolidating within up-trend

 

Cable continues consolidating in a possible flag or other continuation pattern, within a broader medium-term up-trend which is one of the strongest in the FX market.

 

Most recently it pulled-back from the highs, back into the range, and it may have almost completed an a-b-c correction, visible on the 4-hr chart. This morning it formed a bullish engulfing, possibly signalling the end of the a-b-c and the start of a new move up. A break above the 1.7117 highs might signal a short rally within the consolidation up to resistance at 1.7164.

 

Eventually, after the consolidation completes, the broader up-trend is expected to resume. A break above the range highs at 1.7190 could signal such a resumption, with a target at the R1 monthly pivot at 1.7250.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/GBPUSD18b.png