Technical signals from Forex4you

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: v.short term up-trend extends

 

The very short-term up-trend continues rising. It has broken above the monthly pivot by a 20 pip margin but failed to follow-through more aggressively to the upside. It has since pulled back into a consolidation, although it remains above support from the 50-day MA.

 

A break above the current 1.6844 highs would help provide confirmation of a continuation higher, probably to support at resistance at 1.6920. The medium term trend is bullish and the current move off the lows of the 29th June could mark a resumption of that trend.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/GBPUSD10.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: 1.3500 in sight

 

The EUR/USD pair has continued falling as expected. It has now reached lows of 1.3521. The very short-term trend remains bearish and likely to continue. It will probably match the 1.3500 lows. A re-break below 1.3520 would probably provide sufficient confirmation of more downside. A break below the 1.3500 level, would be a very bearish sign, although the S1 monthly pivot not far below, at 1.3481 is likely to supply robust support to any breakdown.

 

It is still a little surprising that the pair sold off after forming the long hammer-like buy candle last Thursday, although given the outlook for monetary policy, more downside is quite an understandable by-product.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/EURUSD11.png

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: starting to break lower

 

USD/JPY has finally made its move. Previously it was stuck in a range but now it has started falling lower, continuing the original down-trend which started at the January highs. Price has penetrated below the 102.10 lows signalling a probable extension to 101.50 where support and resistance, and the 200-day MA are expected to provide support. A move below 102.00 would supply more confirmation.

 

There is a possibility of a consolidation taking place before the next leg lower, but such is the strength and velocity of the sell-off at the moment, I expect it to continue. In Elliot wave terms this could be the beginning of the C leg of the correction down from the January highs.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/USDJPY11.png

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: short-term up-trend extends

 

The very short-term up-trend remains intact despite a recent correction back below the 50-day MA. In the end the dominant up-trend reasserted itself and the pair moved higher again. It has now almost reached the same level as the key 1.6844 highs.

 

A decisive break above these highs would help provide confirmation of a continuation higher, probably to support and resistance at 1.6920. The medium term trend is bullish and the current move off the lows of the 29th June could mark a resumption of that trend.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/GBPUSDb12.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: down-trend stalling

 

EUR/USD's down-trend has stalled. The weak momentum and low selling volume are signs the pair may be bottoming. The Money Flow Index has formed a cyclical trough low, indicating the start of a possible up-cycle for 5 or more days. The evidence shows the pair may be forming a double bottom of sorts with a neckline at 1.3676. Despite the dominant short-term down-trend, there is evidence for more upside, and a break above 1.3560 could provide confirmation, targeting the 200-day at 1.3650.

 

Alternatively the very-short-term down-trend could continue, with a break below the 1.3521 lows, probably confirming a drop to the key 1.3500 level. The S1 monthly pivot at 1.3481 is likely to supply support to any further breakdowns.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/EURUSD12.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: short-term down-trend still intact

 

The short-term down-trend remains intact and the pair is expected to move lower eventually, matching the 1.3500 low, and possibly even moving down further to the S1 monthly pivot at 1.3481. Downside momentum, however, is not strong and is failing to confirm each new trough.

 

If the exchange rate breaches the latest low at 1.3512 that could provide confirmation of more downside, but that does not leave much margin for gain before reaching the key 1.3500 support lows, where it will probably pause. A decisive break below 1.3500 would also soon encounter tough support from the S1 monthly pivot at 1.3481.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/EURUSD16.jpg

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: pulling-back in up-trend

 

Cable has broken above the R1 monthly pivot and breached the key 1.7000 level. It has now met resistance from an old trend-line from the summer 2013 lows and pulled back slightly. If the pull-back continues it could fall all the way down to R1 again at 1.6940, where it would find support.

 

The very short, short and medium term trends are strongly bullish and there is no sign yet of them weakening. Even if a correction develops they would be expected to resume eventually, pushing higher above 1.7000 and continuing up to the next level of resistance. A breach of the 1.7010 highs would probably confirm such a continuation, up to the next target at 1.7070.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/GBPUSD16b.jpg

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: resistance from trend-line

 

The EUR/USD pair has recovered and risen up off the 1.3500 lows, reaching 1.3586, where it encountered a trend-line drawn from the May highs, and pulled back down again. This shows the down-trend remains dominant, and likely to extend. Indeed a break below 1.3550 would probably lead to a move down to 1.3511 and eventually probably 1.3500. A break below that would be key and signal the start of a more bearish phase, although the S1 monthly pivot at 1.3481 is likely to stall a move lower.

 

Alternatively, a break above the May trend-line and the 1.3586 highs would probably signal a continuation higher, and a change of the very short-term trend, generating a new target at 1.3650.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/EURUSD17.png

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: consolidating in short-term down-trend

 

USD/JPY has continued falling in a very short-term down-trend. Currently it has forged a bottom at 101.60 and has started to consolidate at that level. There is a possibility it may be forming a right-angled triangle but it is still not clear whether that is so – if it is then the inference would be bullish.

 

As things stand, however, the down-trend remains dominant and expected to extend. The 200-day MA at 101.53 offers support and would need to be broken through decisively, with a 20 pip margin, so by a move below 101.33 for confirmation. Such a breach would then probably target the S1 pivot at 100.69.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/USDJPY17c.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: down-trend expected to extend

 

Today the Federal Reserve will meet for their rate meeting and much volatility is expected. As a result, prices may break out of predictable ranges or through areas of support and resistance.

 

Currently the pair is in a short-term down-trend and the most likely outcome is that it will continue lower. The trend-line drawn from the May highs has successfully resisted further upside turning price down again; if it moves below the 1.3536 lows, this would probably signal a continuation down to 1.3511 or 1.3500. A break below the key 1.3500s could lead to a move down to 1.3481, where the S1 monthly pivot is.

 

Alternatively, a move above the 1.3587 highs would probably indicate an upside breakout and a change of the very short-term trend, with an upside target at 1.3630.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/EURUSD18b.png

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: @ support in up-trend

 

Cable has broken above the R1 monthly pivot and breached the key 1.7000 level. It has now met resistance from an old trend-line from the summer 2013 lows and pulled back slightly. If the pull-back continues it could fall all the way down to R1 again at 1.6940, where it would find support.

 

The very short, short and medium term trends are strongly bullish and there is no sign yet of them weakening. Even if a correction develops they would be expected to resume eventually, pushing higher above 1.7000 and continuing up to the next level of resistance. A breach of the 1.7010 highs would probably confirm such a continuation, up to the next target at 1.7070.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/GBPUSD18.png

[roobin54]

aud nzd

 

On the daily chart, the price is inside a bullish channel and concurrently we see 1 harmonic patterns. According to the time being fulfilled, we are expecting to have a growth if the condition was good enough.

 

 

forex-fa14.blogspot.com

 

:)

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: tentatively bullish

 

The break above the 1.3586 highs has changed the very-short-term trend to 'up' and it is expected to continue. The exchange rate has also broken above the trend-line drawn from the May highs generating at new target at 1.3650, although that has almost now been reached, so a small pull-back is very possible.

 

The long buy candle formed on the day of the ECB rate meeting, which predicted a bullish trend-change, is coming good now. If today ends as an unambiguous up-day that would further strengthen the bullish case. ADX on the daily chart is high (in the 40's) and possibly rolling over, adding more bullish evidence.

 

Long holders should remain long, and others seek to buy cautiously pull-backs, even on a lower time frame. Otherwise a break above the 200-day MA and the 1.3676 highs would provide confirmation of a continuation higher, perhaps to 1.3725.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/EURUSD19.png

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: down-trend resuming

 

The USD/JPY pair recovered temporarily and rose back up, reaching resistance from the former lower border of a major consolidation pattern, before air-kissing that goodbye and starting a new move lower. The very short-term down-trend is expected to extend. The short-term trend remains biased to the downside ever since the move off the December 2013 highs. From a mid-term Elliot wave perspective the current move could be the final C wave lower of that correction.

 

A move below 101.73 would provide strong confirmation of more downside, although the scope for gain is limited since the significant 200-day MA sits not far below at 101.55.

 

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/USDJPY19.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: pull-back in up-trend

 

The EUR/USD pair is now in a very short-term up-trend within a medium term bullish trend, and it is expected to continue higher. On the 4-hour chart a rising 3-methods bullish candlestick continuation pattern completed 2 bars ago. The next major level of resistance, and target for the pair, is the 200-day MA at 1.3660.

 

Confirmation of further upside could come from a move above 1.3633 – or to be more safer above the 1.3642 highs, although that leaves little scope for gain. A clear move above the 200-day, including a 20-pip margin (1.3680), would probably lead to a move up to resistance at 1.3725.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/EURUSD20.png

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: continuing higher

 

After pulling back to the monthly pivot at 1.6940 cable resumed its up-trend and continued rising. It breached the old highs and has now risen to new 5-year highs at 1.7062.

 

It is currently pulling back from these highs, and could correct all the way down to 1.7005, however, the dominant up-trend is expected to renew itself eventually, and push the pair higher, possibly all the way to resistance at 1.7095, or even potentially the R2 monthly pivot at 1.7120.

 

From the current position, a break above 1.7059 would probably provide sufficient confirmation of more upside. Alternatively if there is a pull-back to support at 1.7005 that would also be an ideal place for traders to open longs.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/GBPUSD20b.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: short-term down-trend extending

 

The very short-term trend remains up. The pair has just completed an a-b-c correction on the 4-hour chart and has started to rise again. It has already broken out above the trend-line drawn down from the May highs, indicating the possibility of more upside on the horizon. The medium term trend is also bullish.

 

The up-trend is expected to continue, with a break above the 1.3612 highs probably indicating an extension higher, and even more confirmation coming from a move above 1.3633. The next target higher will probably be at the 200-day situated at 1.3663.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/EURUSD23b.png

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: down-trend continuing

 

The pair has confirmed expectations of more down-side, which were triggered by the break below the lower border of the major consolidation which began in late January and completed in May. It keeps pushing lower and is expected to continue. The mid-term Elliot wave perspective supports a bearish view since the move down from the late December highs would be classed as a corrective C wave of the impulse from the 2012 lows.

 

A move below 101.73 would provide strong confirmation of more downside, although the scope for immediate gain is limited by the 200-day MA which sits not far below at 101.55. However, the sideways consolidation it has formed since the 12th June lows indicates an eventual target at 101.30.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/USDJPY23.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: v.short-term trend extending

 

The very short-term trend, visible on the 4-hour chart, continues rising and is expected to extend. It has broken above the 1.3613 highs, providing confirmation of more upside with a potential target at 1.3663 where the 200-day MA is situated. It still looks like it is currently forming a small triangle so a break above the 1.3633 highs would provide more confirmation that the move was going to go higher.

 

As I said in my previous forecast, the medium-term trend is losing strength but still technically bullish, and whilst the short-term trend is bearish since the move off the May highs, the day of the June ECB rate meeting posted a bullish reversal candle, the lows of which have not yet been breached.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/EURUSD25b.png

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: correction extending lower

 

Cable has been correcting back within a short and medium term up-trend, the correction, however , has fallen more deeply than expected, breaking below the 1.6972 lows and falling to 1.6950. The last move down means that the very short-term trend, visible on the 4-hour chart is probably now bearish. This also indicates it could continue lower, although, scope for downside is severely limited by the position of the R1 monthly pivot not far below at 1.6939.

 

Eventually I see a re-establishment of the up-trend with a move above the 1.7030 highs key in signalling such a resumption and a new target at 1.7095.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/GBPUSD25.png

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: consolidating in down-trend

 

The pair has continued moving within a sideways range and pushing slightly higher. It has formed a consolidation within a bearish short-term down-trend. It is expected to eventually break out of the consolidation to the downside.

 

A move below 101.73 would provide bearish confirmation, although the scope for immediate gain is limited by the 200-day MA which sits not far below at 101.55. The target generated by using the width of the sideways consolidation, however, which formed since the 12th June, indicates an eventual target further down at 101.30.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/USDJPY25.png

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: consolidating in down-trend

 

The pair has continued moving within a sideways range and pushing slightly higher. It has formed a consolidation within a bearish short-term down-trend. It is expected to eventually break out of the consolidation to the downside.

 

A move below 101.73 would provide bearish confirmation, although the scope for immediate gain is limited by the 200-day MA which sits not far below at 101.55. The target generated by using the width of the sideways consolidation, however, which formed since the 12th June, indicates an eventual target further down at 101.30.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/USDJPY25.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: cup and handle forming

 

The pair is in a very short-term up-trend, visible on the 4-hour chart, after rejecting the 1.3500 lows on the day of the June ECB meeting – and it is expected to continue rising. It may have formed a cup-and-handle pattern on the 4-hour chart, which would indicate the possibility of a sharp spike higher.

 

It has already gained bullish conformation by breaking above the 1.3633 highs and will probably now reach the 1.3663 level, where the 200-day MA is, although a re-break above the 1.3650 highs would re-confirm. A break above the lip of the cup at 1.3676 would be a bullish sign, targeting 1.3736 initially, followed by 1.3836 eventually (the depth of the pattern extrapolated higher).

 

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/EURUSD26.png

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: up-trend probably resuming

 

Cable may have resumed its broad up-trend after a brief pull-back, after penetrating above the 1.7030 confirmation level, signalling the possibility of a strong continuation higher, up to a target of 1.7095.

 

The very short-term trend is in doubt: on the one hand it could be argued that the current move up is still only an a-b-c correction which could recapitulate; however, the break above the 1.7030 level is a very bullish signal in itself regardless of other considerations.

 

Further confirmation might come from a move above 1.7048, up to the previously mentioned target at 1.7095. Alternatively a fall below the swing lows at 1.6970 could indicate a resumption of the very short-term down-trend to 1.6919.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/GBPUSD26.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: upside expectations continue

 

The pair is in a very short-term up-trend, visible on the 4-hour chart, after rejecting the 1.3500 lows on the day of the June ECB meeting – and it is expected to continue rising. It may have formed a cup-and-handle pattern on the 4-hour chart, which would indicate the possibility of a sharp spike higher.

 

It has already gained bullish conformation by breaking above the 1.3633 highs and will probably now reach the 1.3663 level, where the 200-day MA is, although a re-break above the 1.3650 highs would re-confirm. A break above the lip of the cup at 1.3676 would be a bullish sign, targeting 1.3736 initially, followed by 1.3836 eventually (the depth of the pattern extrapolated higher).

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/EURUSD27.png