ddukic Posted September 20, 2012 Report Share Posted September 20, 2012 Oil 20/09/2012 - 4h Chart Analysis http://fxlisting.net/images/cl240-20092012.jpg OIL – 4 HOURS CHART COMMENTS: The Fib Retr scale marked with the blue arrow was measuring thr Retracement of the Oil’s price after the recent fall from the level of 106,35usd. The price after the low at the level of 77,52usd rebounded to the 0.78 Fib Retr grade-level, precisely there, and turned downwards again. The second Fib Retr scale marked with the red arrow is measuring the “fresh” falling path of the Oil’s price considering the low pivot of 77,52usd and the high pivot of 100,01usd. Presently the price hovers at the 0.38 Fib Retr grade-level of this second Fib Retr scale. SUGGESTIONS: It is self understood that short positions already running opened remain opened waiting further developments. The absence of price’s reaction from this level will signal a further fall at the next down targets, the 0.618 and the 0.78 Fib grade-level marked with red arrow. The “surrender” of the 200SMA is a serious indication on the 4 hours chart. There is a possibility to see the price return to check the integrity of the 200SMA, this time as resistance element, before continuing its fall further down. Please forget “long” positions for some more time. You should wait for a substantially supporting level before you consider long positions. Also, you don’t forget: “don’t try to catch a falling knife”, if you don’t hold already a “short” position running, be careful in opening short positions fron now on. The price of Oil moves fast and you may be caught in the “wrong side of the road”. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ddukic Posted September 27, 2012 Author Report Share Posted September 27, 2012 Oil 27/09/2012 - 4h Chart Analysis http://fxlisting.net/images/cl240-27092012.jpg OIL 4 HOURS CHART COMMENTS: If you had the chance to view the video trading analysis posted yesterday forecasting the evolution of the Oil’s price, you had already appreciate its accuracy. Sooner or later the price will try to test the 50SMA by loosing time either, by side stepping, or, by a fast short correction. In case the price does reverse at the 0.382 Fibo grade instead of continuing its fall, the present correction is an internal “pull back” to be followed by a main trend continuation that will take the price above the 100usd level. Vice-versa, in case the price continues falling below the 0.382 Fibo grade, the reliability of a scenario wanting the price to return rising is reduced. In this case the price will target levels around the 80,00usd (0.618 and 0.78 Fibo grades as shown in the chart). SUGGESTIONS: I hope you are holding short positions as a result of the strategy we set up yesterday. Hang in there, Reduce a little your “speed” in other words “short exposure” but hang in the short positions. Once, below the 0.382 Fibo grade, you re-accelerate. Stop loss, if you want to follow the popular saying: “cut your losses short and leave you profits running”, I suggest you to apply a “trailing stop loss” strategy. The stop level that closes completely your short position is above the 91,46usd. For new short positions wait the developments of the Fibo grade 0,382. Long positions must be considered after the finalization of the “love story” between the price and the 0.382 Fibo grade. Until then you keep quit and calm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ddukic Posted September 28, 2012 Author Report Share Posted September 28, 2012 Oil 27/09/2012 - 4h Chart Analysis http://fxlisting.net/images/cl240-27092012.jpg OIL 4 HOURS CHART COMMENTS: If you had the chance to view the video trading analysis posted yesterday forecasting the evolution of the Oil’s price, you had already appreciate its accuracy. Sooner or later the price will try to test the 50SMA by loosing time either, by side stepping, or, by a fast short correction. In case the price does reverse at the 0.382 Fibo grade instead of continuing its fall, the present correction is an internal “pull back” to be followed by a main trend continuation that will take the price above the 100usd level. Vice-versa, in case the price continues falling below the 0.382 Fibo grade, the reliability of a scenario wanting the price to return rising is reduced. In this case the price will target levels around the 80,00usd (0.618 and 0.78 Fibo grades as shown in the chart). SUGGESTIONS: I hope you are holding short positions as a result of the strategy we set up yesterday. Hang in there, Reduce a little your “speed” in other words “short exposure” but hang in the short positions. Once, below the 0.382 Fibo grade, you re-accelerate. Stop loss, if you want to follow the popular saying: “cut your losses short and leave you profits running”, I suggest you to apply a “trailing stop loss” strategy. The stop level that closes completely your short position is above the 91,46usd. For new short positions wait the developments of the Fibo grade 0,382. Long positions must be considered after the finalization of the “love story” between the price and the 0.382 Fibo grade. Until then you keep quit and calm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ddukic Posted September 28, 2012 Author Report Share Posted September 28, 2012 Oil 28/09/2012 - 4h Chart Analysis http://fxlisting.net/images/oil240-28092012.jpg OIL – 4 HOURS CHART COMMENTS: Indeed, there is no way for a price to neglect checking a trend line originating three or four years back. This is a sure betting. So, the Oil’s price, faithful to the tradition rebounded on the U blue trend line originating from 2009. Mind you, this time is reconfirming the famous “U” blue trend line from above since the effort to break it, for the time being, failed. No more of analysis. SUGGESTIONS: This is a challenging set up. The questions to reply are: 1. To be or not to be?. Sorry, this is a question from another play. We start all over again. First question: Are we only “pulling back” to continue higher?, or, the local previous high of 100usd was the exhaustive level of a previous larger pull back (77$ - 100$) and what we observe is the beginning of a fall that may bring the Oil’s price to levels below the previous local low of 77$?. How can we find out what price set up/ time set up will give us the reply to these two questions? That is technical analysis. The reply is obvious provided you have drawn in the chart correctly the correct tools and studies of technical analysis and you have the curiosity to find out whether you can come to a conclusion from the issues you observe and thus guess what is next. So, the U trend line represents “all the money” there is. Above it you stay long and eventually earn good profits provided you “play your cards” intelligently. Don’t forget, the price will not climb like an elevator installed in a high building. Will rather move like a roller coaster. On the contrary, below the U trend line you will feel the “short” environment. In both the long and short scenarios, the stop loss strategy is created with the U trend line as focal point. Good luck folks!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ddukic Posted October 1, 2012 Author Report Share Posted October 1, 2012 Oil 01/10/2012 - 4h Chart Analysis http://fxlisting.net/images/oil240-01102012.jpg COMMENTS: There is not much to comment at this time of Monday regarding the Oil. I added the blue trend line U signaling two significant lows and marked the existing red channel d1-d2. Now, the trend line coming from 1 Dec 2009 is a strong psychological level therefore the Oil’s price hovers around it waiting for the opportunity to move away. At the same time, the price is below the 50SMA that is playing its resisting role. SUGGESTIONS: Opened short positions from earlier remain opened looking to increase their short exposure in case the price moves below the two “U” trend lines. Obviously, the continuation of the Oil’s price residing above the two mentioned “U” trend lines and the eventual up breaking of the 50SMA, must be taken seriously into account and eventually force us to anticipate an eventual up move of the price with negative consequences for our short positions. We will anticipate, either, by drastically reducing our short exposure, or, by closing our positions and eventually turn them into long positions. In this way I also described the stop loss strategy of the already opened short positions. Now, for the ones wanting to open new short positions, please wait. It is not the right time. The two U trend lines and their aura generate a supportive environment that needs time to be weakening by the traders. It is evident that below these two “U” trend lines there is “glorious” space for new short positions. About long positions. I am not sure about existing and running long positions. If any, please close them below the “U” trend lines and AMEN. You can though start new long positions of small exposure to anticipate the eventual strong reaction at this level resulting to a reversal of the recent up to now correction into a return to upwards move. In this case stop loss level should be the one little below the U trend line/s. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ddukic Posted October 2, 2012 Author Report Share Posted October 2, 2012 Oil 02/10/2012 - 4h Chart Analysis http://fxlisting.net/images/oil240-02102012.jpg OIL COMMENTS: A positive trading session the one of yesterday. The price exceeded the 50SMA and thus creates the prospect for an upward continuation. As we said in our yesterday’s comments on Oil the supporting area created by the two “U” blue trend lines were enforcing a supporting zone that would eventually break downwards after severe selling pressure. SUGGESTIONS: Please use the same suggestions of yesterday. Strategically are still valid. Don’t forget the sudden volatility Oil presents quiet often. For your easy reference I quote here below the Suggestions of yesterday: QUOTE “SUGGESTIONS: Opened short positions from earlier remain opened looking to increase their short exposure in case the price moves below the two “U” trend lines. Obviously, the continuation of the Oil’s price residing above the two mentioned “U” trend lines and the eventual up breaking of the 50SMA, must be taken seriously into account and eventually force us to anticipate an eventual up move of the price with negative consequences for our short positions. We will anticipate, either, by drastically reducing our short exposure, or, by closing our positions and eventually turn them into long positions. In this way I also described the stop loss strategy of the already opened short positions. Now, for the ones wanting to open new short positions, please wait. It is not the right time. The two U trend lines and their aura generate a supportive environment that needs time to be weakening by the traders. It is evident that below these two “U” trend lines there is “glorious” space for new short positions. About long positions. I am not sure about existing and running long positions. If any, please close them below the “U” trend lines and AMEN. You can though start new long positions of small exposure to anticipate the eventual strong reaction at this level resulting to a reversal of the recent up to now correction into a return to upwards move. In this case stop loss level should be the one little below the U trend line/s. UNQUOTE Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ddukic Posted October 3, 2012 Author Report Share Posted October 3, 2012 Oil 03/10/2012 - 4h Chart Review and Analysis OIL 4 HOURS CHART http://fxlisting.net/images/oil240-03102012.jpg SUGGESTIONS: There is nothing to add here. The Comments of yesterday and Suggestions of yesterday apply again. There was no significant change justifying a major change of your strategies. Anyway, this is a ‘Long” environment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ddukic Posted October 5, 2012 Author Report Share Posted October 5, 2012 Oil 04/10/2012 - 4h Chart Analysis http://fxlisting.net/images/oil240-04102012.jpg OIL 4 HOURS CHART SUGGESTIONS: Oh!! Finally. This is how significant support or resistance levels are “broken”, violently. The traders do not wait until doomsday for the conviction of many more other traders so in a “massive” number to “break” through. A team of brokers take the risk and anticipate all others. By saying traders I am not referring to the CFD Retail Traders but I am referring to the institutional traders of central banks, banks and large financial institutions. So, what is next? The friends with short position must apply a “trailing stop” strategy in order to protect the achieved but not yet realized profits and be ready at the next turning pivot to switch their positions from short to long. Any friend wanting to open long positions must wait. The red channel d1-d2 may develop to the “road map” the price will follow before reversing to a corrective move. Oil moves fast when traders make up their mind. The truth is that all financial instruments move fast under the same hypothesis. In my opinion, the reversing target will be at the 0.78 Fibo grade of the Fibo scale marked with red arrow. He,he,he !! Good luck guys Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ddukic Posted November 7, 2012 Author Report Share Posted November 7, 2012 Oil 06/11/2012 - Chart Review and Analysis http://fxlisting.net/images/oilD-06112012.jpg CRUDE OIL DAILY CHART SUGGESTIONS: No fast evolution observed since I posted an analysis on the Oil. I added a red channel that may guide the evolution of the Oil’s price in the near future. Until then we expect to observe the “meeting” of the price with the U1 trend line. The “outcome” will signal the “what next”. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ddukic Posted November 14, 2012 Author Report Share Posted November 14, 2012 Oil 12/11/2012 - 4h Chart Analysis http://fxlisting.net/images/oilD-12112012.jpg CRUDE OIL DAILY CHART SUGGESTIONS: Last week was a stabilizing trading period for the Oil’s price. As you can observe at the end of the last falling part of the graph there are several daily bars signaling this stabilization. In my opinion, the price will low up to the U1 blue trend line before presenting any signals for the continuation. Don’t forget that 77.07usd constitutes a level confirmed several times in the recent past of few months. My friends the “Bears” keep your short positions. You suffer the roll over cost but you are after a risk/reward ration that worth trying. My stop loss is above the tandem of the two SMAs. I know is expensive but is possible that the price tries it before moving again “south”. I am leaving to you the way to handle it. “Bulls” wake up. There is a chance to open small long positions at the encounter of the U1 blue trend line. Stop loss immediately below. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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