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Market Overview by FXCC Aug 27 2012

 

Market Overview by FXCC Aug 27 2012

 

Fed’s Jackson Hole conference key event this week - BNZ

 

The Fed’s Jackson Hole conference, due on Friday, is the event of the week. According to Mike Jones, currency strategist at Bank of New Zealand, "some of the market impact of Bernanke’s speech has been nullified by last week’s dovish Fed minutes." The analyst adds: "The speech is expected to be used to map out the policy (easing) options facing the Fed. If this has the effect of hardening Fed easing expectations then the USD should continue to suffer."

 

London session ahead will be a quiet one in regards of London closing for holidays and lack of macro economic data EUR related but German Ifo business climate at 08:00 GMT as the most important, preceded by German import price index at 06:00 GMT, and Chicago Fed Evans speaking at 10:00 GMT. In the euro zone sovereign debt auctions front, France and Germany will sell short term treasury bills.

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https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/27082012/

 

UPCOMING EVENTS :

2012-08-27 06:00 GMT | Japan. Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (Jul)

2012-08-27 08:00 GMT | Germany. IFO - Business Climate (Aug)

2012-08-27 14:30 GMT | United States. Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index (Aug)

2012-08-27 16:15 GMT | United States. FOMC Member Pianalto Speaks

 

FOREX NEWS :

2012-08-27 04:57 GMT | GBP/USD quiet around 1.58, outlook bearish – V.Bednarik

2012-08-27 04:21 GMT | EUR/NZD set to push above 55-day EMA?

2012-08-27 03:20 GMT | EUR reaches smallest net short position since May - Nomura

2012-08-27 01:41 GMT | AUD/USD falls sharply; Only China fix catalyst?

 

 

EURUSD : 1.25073 / 1.25078

DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY

 

EURUSD.gif

 

1.2635 | 1.2594 | 1.2547

1.2482 | 1.2446 | 1.2406

 

SUMMARY : Up trend

TREND : Downward penetration

MA10 : Bearish

MA20 : Bearish

STOCHASTIC : Neutral

 

 

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

 

On Friday EURUSD formed correction and reached our target at 1.2490. Today we expect quiet day ahead however technically important targets might be achieved lat. Upside direction is limited by the next resistance level at 1.2547 (R1), brake here would enable higher targets at important technical level 1.2594 (R2). Momentum on the upside direction might expose last target at 1.2635 (R3) in potential. Loss of the next support level at 1.2482 (S1) would put in focus next target at 1.2446 (S2) and any further fall would then be limited by last support at 1.2406 (S3).

 

--------------

GBPUSD : 1.58074 / 1.58085

DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY

 

GBPUSD.gif

 

1.5911 | 1.5873 | 1.5838

1.5796 | 1.5766 | 1.5733

 

SUMMARY : Up trend

TREND : Downward penetration

MA10 : Bearish

MA20 : Bearish

STOCHASTIC : Neutral

 

 

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

 

GBPUSD did not show the essential momentum on Friday and remained to be traded is sideways mode however our target at 1.5805 was achieved. Fresh low at 1.5796 (S1) is the next support level. Market penetration below it might encourage execution of the short trades and drive market price towards to the next target at 1.5766 (S2). Potential is seen to reach last support level at 1.5733 (S3) in perspective. For the long positions it is preferably to wait the 1.5838 (R1) brake out. We suggest next targets at 1.5873 (R2) and 1.5911 (R3) in potential.

 

-----------------

USDJPY : 78.756 / 78.762

DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY

 

USDJPY.gif

 

79.37 | 79.14 | 78.93

78.62 | 78.45 | 78.28

 

SUMMARY : Sideway

TREND : Down trend

MA10 : Bullish

MA20 : Bullish

STOCHASTIC : Neutral

 

 

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

 

USDJPY broke our resistance level at 78.73 today and now moving towards to our next target at 78.93 (R1). Brake here would enable higher target at 79.14 (R2) and any further rise would then be limited by 79.37 (R3). The downtrend resuming is possible from these levels. On the other hand if price manage to stay below the next resistance at 78.93 (R1), we expect the price to retest our support at 78.62 (S1), brake below that level would suggest next targets at 78.45 (S2) and 78.28 (S3) where can be found the final support of the day.

 

 

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd, ( Learn Forex Trading | ECN Forex Online Trading | Forex Trading Tips | FXCC )

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Market Overview by FXCC Aug 28 2012

 

Market Overview by FXCC Aug 28 2012

 

Fed to deliver further stimulus - JPM

 

JPM is quite dovish on the next Fed policy tools to deploy, expecting Ben Bernanke & Co. to provide additional stimulus to the economy by extending the rate-on-hold guidance out to mid-2015 and increasing asset purchases. The bank expects medium-term US paper getting a better bid tone ahead of the Sept 12-13 FOMC meeting. A more marked move will come via real yields as investors bet on higher inflation, says JPM head bond strategist Terry Belton.

 

For the London session ahead the economic agenda will be soft once again in EUR macro data related terms, with Germany GFK consumer sentiment at 06:00 GMT, followed by Spanish final GDP 1 hour later, and EU M3 money supply at 08:00 GMT. At 11:00 GMT is expected EU's Van Rompuy will meet Spanish PM Rajoy, which could bring some headlines to the table giving some volatility to current thin markets, coupled with both Spanish and Italian short term sovereign debt auctions to be held today, Spain to sell up to €3.5B in 3 and 6 month bills. Spanish 10y bond yields hold near mid 6%s with risk premium with Germany around the 500bps.

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https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/28082012/

 

UPCOMING EVENTS :

2012-08-28 06:00 GMT | Germany. Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey (Sep)

2012-08-28 06:00 GMT | Switzerland. UBS Consumption Indicator (Jul)

2012-08-28 08:00 GMT | European Monetary Union. M3 Money Supply (3m) (Jul)

2012-08-28 14:00 GMT | United States. Consumer Confidence (Aug)

 

FOREX NEWS :

2012-08-28 04:32 GMT | GBP/USD maintains bearish profile

2012-08-28 03:51 GMT | EUR/USD in holding pattern ahead of risk events - OCBC

2012-08-28 02:53 GMT | AUD/USD continues to grind lower

2012-08-28 01:28 GMT | Risk off swings boost USD, JPY

 

 

EURUSD : 1.24836 / 1.24841

DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY

 

EURUSD.gif

 

1.2594 | 1.2547 | 1.2508

1.2446 | 1.2406 | 1.2369

 

SUMMARY : Up

TREND : Sideway

MA10 : Bearish

MA20 : Bearish

STOCHASTIC : Neutral

 

 

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

 

Market remains in uptrend after some consolidation provided yesterday. Instrument dropped below the suggested support level at 1.2482 and now is moving towards to our target at 1.2446 (S1). Brake here is required for further correction development towards to next target at 1.2406 (S2). Last support level locates today at 1.2369 (S3). Failure to go lower would put in focus next resistance at 1.2508 (R1), brake here is required to enable next targets at 1.2547 (R2) and 1.2594 (R3), important technical level.

 

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GBPUSD : 1.57882 / 1.57893

DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY

 

GBPUSD.gif

 

1.5892 | 1.5861 | 1.5827

1.5753 | 1.5717 | 1.5681

 

SUMMARY : Down

TREND : Downward penetration

MA10 : Bearish

MA20 : Bearish

STOCHASTIC : Neutral

 

 

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

 

The market is intended to go lower in medium term perspective. Yesterday instrument dropped below the expected support level at 1.5796 and finally reached our target at 1.5766 today. Technically, next support level locates at today fresh low 1.5753 (S1), pushdown of the price is possible below this level. We suggest next targets at 1.5717 (S2) and 1.5681 (S3). Failure to go lower suggested support level might put in focus our next resistance level at 1.5827 (R1), brake here would suggest new targets at 1.5861 (R2) and 1.5892 (R3).

 

---------------

USDJPY : 78.509 / 78.514

DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY

 

USDJPY.gif

 

79.21 | 79.02 | 78.83

78.45 | 78.28 | 78.11

 

SUMMARY : Down

TREND : Sideway

MA10 : Bearish

MA20 : Bearish

STOCHASTIC : Oversold

 

 

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

 

USDJPY depreciated today below the expected support level at 78.62 and almost reach our next target at 78.45 (S1). We expect further easing towards to our targets later on today however there is no clear tendency on the market now. Possible execution of protective orders below the support level at 78.45 (S1) might drive market price toward to our lower targets at 78.28 (S2) and 78.11 (S3). On the other hand, if market go higher and continue to be traded in sideways we suggest waiting for a clear brake of the next resistance level at 78.83 (R1). Next expected target at 79.02 (R2).

 

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd, ( Forex Trading Course | Forex Trading Blog | ECN Forex Trading Training | FXCC )

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Market Overview by FXCC Aug 29 2012

 

Market Overview by FXCC Aug 29 2012

 

ECB has no choice but buy periphery gvrt debt - Nomura

 

ECB purchases of periphery debt would be effective in ending a dysfunctional government bond marke, says Nomura economist Richard Koo. "While longer-term answers to this eurozone-specific problem include fiscal stimulus to tackle the balance sheet recession itself and a rule that addresses the issue of capital flight by restraining, given that both of those measures will probably take years to implement, the only short-term option is to have the ECB buy the government debt of peripheral countries" the economist said in a research note.

 

London session ahead will be another quiet one in terms of EUR macro data related coming out, with only French business confidence at 06:45 GMT, followed by Italian consumer confidence and retail sales at 08:00 GMT, and German CPI at 12:00 GMT. In the sovereign debt auctions front Italy will sell 6-month bills, with 10 year bond yields on the rise at 5.82% last, coming from multi-week lows Aug 22 at 5.56% for Italy. There will also be some meetings among different EU leaders going on which could actually produce some headlines.

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https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/29082012/

 

UPCOMING EVENTS :

2012-08-29 07:00 GMT Switzerland. KOF Leading Indicator (Aug)

2012-08-29 12:00 GMT Germany. Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) (Aug). Preliminar

2012-08-29 12:30 GMT United States. Gross Domestic Product Annualized (Q2)

2012-08-29 18:00 GMT United States. Fed's Beige Book

 

 

2012-08-29 04:32 GMT GBP/USD holds bullish stance – V.Bednarik

2012-08-29 04:11 GMT GBP/JPY: Hikkake prints at key support

2012-08-29 03:42 GMT EUR/USD, watch resistance at 1.2600

2012-08-29 02:02 GMT USD on demand in Asia

 

---------------------

EURUSD : 1.25567 / 1.25571

DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY

 

EURUSD.gif

 

1.2633 | 1.2604 | 1.2576

1.2543 | 1.2513 | 1.2481

 

SUMMARY : Up

TREND : Up trend

MA10 : Bearish

MA20 : Bullish

STOCHASTIC : Neutral

 

 

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

 

The “Bullish” sentiment took up the EURUSD. Instrument reached our target at 1.2547. Potential of going higher is seen today above the next resistance at 1.2576 (R1), surpassing of this level would suggest higher targets at 1.2604 (R2) and 1.2633 (R3). If it fail to go higher, we might see retracement development below the next support level at 1.2543 (S1) towards to next target at 1.2513 (S2). Brake here is required to enable last support level at 1.2481 (S3).

 

------------------

GBPUSD : 1.58147 / 1.58155

DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY

 

GBPUSD.gif

 

1.5913 | 1.5887 | 1.5838

1.5797 | 1.5772 | 1.5747

 

SUMMARY : Up

TREND : Up trend

MA10 : Bearish

MA20 : Bullish

STOCHASTIC : Neutral

 

 

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

 

GBPUSD currently is under the “Bullish” pressure and moving towards to our suggested yesterday target at 1.5838 (R1), our next resistance level. Brake here would suggest new target at 1.5887 (R2) and any further rise would then be limited to 1.5913 (R3) intraday. Next support level stay at 1.5797 (S1), brake below it might provide a downside priority in direction for the remaining of the day. Next suggested targets at 1.5772 (S2) and 1.5747 (S3) in potential.

 

-------------

USDJPY : 78.580 / 78.584

DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY

 

USDJPY.gif

 

79.02 | 78.83 | 78.65

78.45 | 78.28 | 78.11

 

SUMMARY : Sideway

TREND : Sideway

MA10 : Bullish

MA20 : Bearish

STOCHASTIC : Neutral

 

 

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

 

Technically instrument remain trading in a range mode. A break above the first resistance level at 78.65 (R1) would suggest a target at 78.83 (R2). If the price holds its momentum on the upside we can expect a further rise towards to 79.02 (R3) in perspective. All our support levels remain the same as yesterday. Key support level holds at 78.45 (S1). If the pair manage to brake here, we expect next target 78.28 (S2) and any further fall would then be limited to 78.11 (S3).

 

 

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd, ( Forex Trading Hours | Forex Trading Strategy | ECN Forex Trading Tutorial | FXCC )

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Market Overview by FXCC Aug 30 2012

 

Market Overview by FXCC Aug 30 2012

 

Iron ore collapse has huge implications for the Australian economy - Macquarie Group

 

The tumbling iron ore price has the Aussie bulls on the edge after Iron ore fell nearly 5% overnight to $90.30 a tonne, down now 23% since the end of July. If commodity prices do not recover, Senior Economist at Macquarie Brian Redican sees A$10 billion of cuts would be needed for the Australian Government to achieve a 2013 surplus.

 

London session ahead will be a busier one than the days before, with main focus on Italian 10 year sovereign bond auction, with previous auction's yield at 5.96%. Apart from that EU's Barroso speaks at European Forum Alpach in Viena at 09:00 GMT which could bring some headlines. In the EUR data related front Spain delivers CPI at 07:00 GMT, followed 55 minutes later by German unemployment rate, and Italian hourly wages 5 minutes after. Then at the same time Barroso speaks EU and Italy consumer sentiment data will be out. The Jackson Hole symposium finally starts today as well.

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https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/30082012/

 

UPCOMING EVENTS :

2012-08-30 07:55 GMT | Germany. Unemployment Change (Aug)

2012-08-30 08:30 GMT | United Kingdom. Mortgage Approvals (Jul)

2012-08-30 09:00 GMT | European Monetary Union. Consumer Confidence (Aug)

2012-08-30 12:30 GMT | United States. Core Personal Consumption Expenditure - Prices Index (YoY) (Jul)

 

FOREX NEWS :

2012-08-30 02:52 GMT | EUR/USD still bid above 100-day EMA

2012-08-30 04:30 GMT | GBP/USD steady around 1.5825 ahead of Europe

2012-08-30 00:45 GMT | AUD/USD heading towards 200-day MA; Fitch warns on steel, iron ore outlook

2012-08-30 00:18 GMT | USD/JPY still without direction

 

 

EURUSD : 1.25353 / 1.25359

DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY

 

EURUSD.gif

 

1.2633 | 1.2604 | 1.2576

1.2513 | 1.2481 | 1.2451

 

SUMMARY : Up

TREND : Up trend

MA10 : Bullish

MA20 : Bearish

STOCHASTIC : Overbought

 

 

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

 

EURUSD penetrated below the suggested support level at 1.2543 yesterday and made an attempt to go lower. Today we expect further depreciation as main scenario towards to our targets. However clearance of next resistance at 1.2576 (R1) might open way for the next target attack at 1.2604 (R2). Our next target for short positions locates at 1.2513 (S1), loss here would enable lower supports at 1.2481 (S2) and 1.2451 (S3) in perspective.

 

----------------

GBPUSD : 1.58229 / 1.58238

DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY

 

GBPUSD.gif

 

1.5913 | 1.5887 | 1.5861

1.5796 | 1.5772 | 1.5747

 

SUMMARY : Up

TREND : Up trend

MA10 : Bearish

MA20 : Bullish

STOCHASTIC : Neutral

 

 

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

 

The currency traded yesterday without a priority in direction and all our supports and resistance levels remain the same. Today we expect that price will trade within the same price range. Strong signal should be provided prior to the trend development. Potential is seen for break above the 1.5861 level (R1) on the upper side. Possible targets stays at 1.5887 (R2) and 1.5913 (R3) levels. Downside development remains for now limited by next support level at 1.5796 (S1), only clear break here would be a signal of market weakening with next targets at 1.5772 (S2) and 1.5747(S3) in potential.

 

---------------

USDJPY : 78.605 / 78.610

DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY

 

USDJPY.gif

 

79.21 | 79.02 | 78.83

78.45 | 78.28 | 78.11

 

SUMMARY : Sideway

TREND : Sideway

MA10 : Bearish

MA20 : Bullish

STOCHASTIC : Oversold

 

 

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

 

The USDJPY trades in a channel between our next support level at 78.45 (S1) and resistance at 78.83 (R1). A break in either direction will determine the trading bias for the medium term. In such situation we suggest to wait for a clear directional signal prior taking any positions. Bake above the resistance level at 78.83 (R1) would suggest next targets at 79.02 (R2) and 79.21 (R3) in potential. On the other side, loss of 78.45 (S1) would enable targets at 78.28 (S2) and 78.11 (S3).

 

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd, (http://www.fxcc.com)

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Market Overview by FXCC Aug 31 2012

 

Market Overview by FXCC Aug 31 2012

 

ECB bond buying plan unlikely to be fully unveiled at the Sep ECB meeting - TDS

 

With summer drawing to a close, "it's time to see if the monetary weapons will be revealed", says Rich Kelly, research analyst at TDS. "Disappointment at some stage along the way is a real possibility and we eventually expect the ECB’s new bond buying plan to satisfy the market, but it is unlikely to be fully unveiled at the September ECB meeting, and once announced, there will be a lag before Spain asks for it, and markets hate waiting and uncertainty" the analyst notes.

 

In the sessions ahead, the UK’s non-seasonally adjusted Nationwide Housing Prices data for August will be key risk event for GBP, but the market is likely to be distracted as it awaits Bernanke’s speech at Jackson Hole.

Read More

https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/31082012/

 

UPCOMING EVENTS :

2012-08-31 09:30 GMT | E.M.U. Unemployment Rate (Jul)

2012-08-31 12:30 GMT | Canada. Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (Q2)

2012-08-31 14:00 GMT | United States. Fed's Bernanke Speaks at Jackson Hole

2012-08-31 18:30 GMT | All. IMF's Lagarde Speaks at Jackson Hole

 

FOREX NEWS :

2012-08-31 03:45 GMT | USD/JPY dips to 6-day lows, still in range

2012-08-31 03:01 GMT | NZD/USD finding resistance below 0.80

2012-08-31 02:11 GMT | GBP/JPY sideways around 124.00

2012-08-31 02:46 GMT | EUR/AUD within quiet, narrow range

 

 

EURUSD : 1.25109 / 1.25114

DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY

 

EURUSD.gif

 

1.2577 | 1.2550 | 1.2523

1.2481 | 1.2451 | 1.2417

 

SUMMARY : Up

TREND : Downward penetration

MA10 : Bearish

MA20 : Bearish

STOCHASTIC : Neutral

 

 

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

 

Today major market drivers would be Fed's Bernanke Speech at 14:00 GMT and IMF's Lagarde Speech at 18:30 GMT at Jackson Hole. However some macroeconomic data would be released during the European trading session, in focus E.M.U. Unemployment Rate at 09:00 GMT and Germany Retail Sales at 06:00 GMT. Appreciation above the next resistance level at 1.2523 (R1) potentially might expose higher targets at 1.2550 (R2) and 1.2577 (R3) later on today. Bearish penetration below the suggested yesterday support at 1.2513 targeting 1.2481 (S1) and 1.2451(S2) in potential. Final support level for today locates at 1.2417 (S3).

 

-----------------

GBPUSD : 1.57932 / 1.57941

DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY

 

GBPUSD.gif

 

1.5859 | 1.5830 | 1.5800

1.5770 | 1.5741 | 1.5712

 

SUMMARY : Up

TREND : Downward penetration

MA10 : Bearish

MA20 : Bearish

STOCHASTIC : Neutral

 

 

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

 

Yesterday Instrument made an attempt to establish positive bias but failed to go much higher our suggested resistance level at 1.5838. During the US Session pair recovered all gains and met our downside direction target at 1.5772. Fresh low, formed yesterday is our next support level at 1.5770 (S1), brake here might shift market sentiment to the “Bearish” side. In such scenario we expect further decline towards to next targets at 1.5741 (S2) and 1.5712 (S3). Risk of GBPUSD strengthening is seen above the resistance level at 1.5800 (R1). Progress above it might expose targets at 1.5830 (R2) and 1.5859 (R3) in potential.

 

----------------

USDJPY : 78.435 / 78.440

DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY

 

USDJPY.gif

 

78.91 | 78.85 | 78.57

78.28 | 78.10 | 77.92

 

SUMMARY : Down

TREND : Sideway

MA10 : Bearish

MA20 : Bearish

STOCHASTIC : Oversold

 

 

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

 

Market remains in sideways mode trading however potential volatility increase due to the Jackson Hole Symposium might assist to the trend development on the market. Signal of market sentiment change to the bearish would be provided if market drop below the next support level at 78.28 (S1). Suggested targets locates at 78.10 (S2) and 77.92 (S3). On the other side, brake above the resistance at 78.57 (R1) might lead to the bullish scenario and expose targets at 78.85 (R2) and 78.91 (R3).

 

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Forex Trading Basics | ECN Forex Trading Education | Best Forex Trading Platform | FXCC )

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