Market Overview by FXCC

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Daily Market Review by FXCC June 26 2012

 

Daily Market Review by FXCC June 26 2012

 

EU in total turmoil and chaos... Moody's downgrades 28 Spanish Banks

 

Markets traded with a negative bias on Monday: equities sold off in Europe and North America (-2% on the DAX, -1.6% on the S&P 500, -0.9% on the TSX) on a succession of ominous news reports out of Europe. Spain announced that it would seek bailout funds from the Eurogroup, and later Cyprus announced that it would seek bailout funds from the Eurogroup… the hits kept on coming throughout the day. While the Eurogroup has officially welcomed both requests, it will need to come up with plans to meet both countries’ needs in the short term, even as the EU Summit planned for the 28th and 29th is supposed to focus on larger matters such as coordinated stimulus throughout the Eurozone, the relaxing of timetables for fiscal consolidation in different European countries, etc.

 

The euro traded lower, with EURUSD closing at 1.25, while CAD strengthened during the second half of the day as the near-month WTI contract rebounded from an intraday low of US$78 per barrel to US$79.20 (still lower on the day – it had opened above US$80 per barrel). The TSX was buoyed by strength in the gold mining sub-sector (+1.8%) while the oil and gas sector followed crude prices lower. Government bonds in Canada, the US and Germany all appreciated today, and the generic German 2-year is back to a single digit yield of 0.07%. The market mood was summed up by a release that read "As demands for action weigh on EU leaders, markets begin to lose confidence that this week’s EU summit will yield anything more than promises and small steps. In this environment the markets are shedding risk. "

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UPCOMING EVENTS :

2012-06-26 08:30 GMT | UK - Public Sector Net Borrowing (May)

2012-06-26 08:30 GMT | UK - Inflation Report Hearings

2012-06-26 14:00 GMT | US - Consumer Confidence (Jun)

2012-06-26 14:00 GMT | US - Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Jun)

 

FOREX NEWS :

2012-06-26 03:57 GMT | USD/JPY selling off ahead of tax voting

2012-06-26 03:40 GMT | US new home sector to remain under pressure - RBC

2012-06-26 02:02 GMT | China CB Leading Economic Index: 1.1

2012-06-26 01:50 GMT | Risk currencies on correction mode after Monday's USD buying

 

 

EURUSD

DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY

 

 

1.2615 | 1.2580 | 1.2542

1.2469 | 1.2434 | 1.2396

 

SUMMARY : Down

TREND : Down trend

MA10 : Bearish

MA20 : Bearish

STOCHASTIC : Overbought

 

 

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

 

Crucial support is evident at 1.2440, and a sustained breach of the same may see the euro test its previous lows of 1.2286 and 1.2142 in the coming days. RSI-14 is currently trading at 0.37 with a negative bias on the weekly chart. We can expect the euro to trade lower following its overall downtrend. Meanwhile, resistances are evident at 1.2647 (8-period EMA on daily chart) then 1.2740.

 

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GBPUSD :

DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY

 

 

1.5643 | 1.5617 | 1.5591

1.5539 | 1.5513 | 1.5487

 

SUMMARY : Down

TREND : Down trend

MA10 : Bearish

MA20 : Bullish

STOCHASTIC : Overbought

 

 

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

 

We can expect the pair to continue its downward rally and test the support of 1.5510, or 23.6% retracement level for the aforementioned range. If the pair breaches this support, then the next support is at 1.5360; the resistances are at 1.5660 (8-period EMA on weekly chart) and then 1.5755.

 

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USDJPY :

DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY

 

 

81.475 81.025 80.340

79.210 78.760 78.075

 

SUMMARY : Neutral

TREND : Up trend

MA10 : Bearish

MA20 : Bullish

STOCHASTIC : Oversold

 

 

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

 

The pair is trading above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level in the downward rally ranging from 84.17 to 77.62). We can expect the pair to retest the support levels of 79.70-79.40, and the yen may start inching up from these levels. The RSI-14 is currently at 0.51 and is tending towards the upside. This week, we recommend buying at support levels of 79.80-79.75. The supports are evident at 79.70-79.40 and resistances are at 80.91 and 81.60, representing 50% and 61.8% retracement level for the 84.17-77.62 range, respectively. Short term signals are bearish but as we move to the longer view, indicators are totally confused.

 

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd, (http://www.fxcc.com)

[alayoua]

Market Overview by FXCC June 27 2012

 

Market Review by FXCC June 27 2012

 

EU Summit to consider "Grand Master Plan" while Europe Burns

 

US markets traded with a positive bias today, as the S&P 500 and NASDAQ were both up approximately 0.75% after yesterday’s sell-off. Bonds sold off, but only moderately while crude traded fairly flat in the US. The near-month Brent crude future shot up 2.3% on news that striking oil workers in Norway caused the closure of four oil platforms on top of the shut-down of a large processing and drilling facility that has been idle since Sunday. In this context, the Canadian dollar traded stronger against USD, appreciating to 1.0237 at the close. Prices of some of the petroleum blends that Canada exports, particularly WCS, remain fairly low both in absolute terms and vs. WTI, and the strength in Brent did not carry over into Canadian energy stocks, which were flat on the day. US stocks advanced despite that fact that US consumer confidence fell to a reading of 62 in June from a reading of 64.4 in May. That’s the lowest reading since January of this year, when the index stood at 61.1. The decline was driven: a) by increases in respondents who found employment ‘hard to get,’ b) who found general conditions were ‘worse’, and c) a reduction in intentions to make major purchases.

 

President of the European Council Herman Von Rompuy published a plan titled “Towards a Genuine Economic and Monetary Union” for discussion at the EU Summit this week. The report outlines his views as to how the European crisis ought to be addressed. Weakness in the euro became more evident throughout the day, as investors lost confidence in any results from the EU Summit and their grand plan, markets want action to help correct today's problems, not plans for the future, when their maybe no EU or euro.

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UPCOMING EVENTS :

2012-06-27 08:30 GMT | UK - BBA Mortgage Approvals (May)

2012-06-27 10:00 GMT | UK - CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Jun)

2012-06-27 12:30 GMT | US - Durable Goods Orders (May)

2012-06-27 14:00 GMT | US - Pending Home Sales (May)

 

FOREX NEWS :

2012-06-27 04:33 GMT | EUR/USD glued at round 1.2500

2012-06-27 04:28 GMT | Dismantling conventional logic BoJ QE equals Yen weakness - HSBC

2012-06-27 02:48 GMT | EUR/JPY back to opening price

2012-06-27 01:43 GMT | CPI-IPI mix implies more MAS flexibility - Nomura

 

 

EURUSD : 1.24990 / 1.24993

DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY

 

 

1.2619 | 1.2575 | 1.2530

1.2441 | 1.2397 | 1.2352

 

SUMMARY : Down

TREND : Down trend

MA10 : Bearish

MA20 : Bearish

STOCHASTIC : Overbought

 

 

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

 

Daily technicals have just moved to bearish. Whereas short term technicals are providing opposing signals. Supports are seen at 1.2419 and then at 1.2375 both congestion levels. On the other hand, resistance levels are seen at the 21-DMA line at 1.2530 and then at 1.2565. . The primary outlook is lower towards 1.2434 and 1.2360 and a break below 12287 is expected in the near future. The main question is whether or not the decline continues from below 1.2566. The bias remains bearish and strength into resistance, especially on news, should be sold.

 

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GBPUSD : 1.56337 / 1.56347

DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY

 

 

1.5755 | 1.5703 | 1.5668

1.5581 | 1.5529 | 1.5494

 

SUMMARY : Neutral

TREND : Up trend

MA10 : Bearish

MA20 : Bullish

STOCHASTIC : Overbought

 

 

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

 

Indicators are mixed and technicals are not in agreement; near term resistance is at 9 day MA 1.5642 also supports are seen at the 21-DMA line at 1.5541, 1.5535 and then at 1.5473. On the other hand, resistance levels are seen at 1.5660, 1.5734 and then at 1.5578. Whether or not the decline continues from below or above Friday’s high at 1.5634. The overall outlook is bearish against 1.5777

 

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USDJPY : 79.446 / 79.449

DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY

 

 

80.310 | 80.050 | 79.500

79.205 | 78.950 | 78.655

 

SUMMARY : Down

TREND : Sideway

MA10 : Bearish

MA20 : Bearish

STOCHASTIC : Overbought

 

 

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

 

Technicals are mostly bearish with others in neutral heading toward the bearish levels. The pair is heading toward the lower end of a wide range bound between 200 day MA 78.84 and 100 day MA 80.51. Support is well defined from the 20 day average, channel support. A break above yesterday's top and nearest resistance 80.62 would encourage further recovery of the dollar. Immediate support is yesterday's bottom at 79.43, and a consistent break below could strengthen the yen further down towards next target 78.55.

 

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd, (http://www.fxcc.com)

[alayoua]

Market Overview by FXCC June 28 2012

 

Market Overview by FXCC June 28 2012

 

The calm before the storm.... EU Summit formally begins today.

 

Today begins the three ring circus, known as the EcoFin Summit, or the EU Summit, with all the hype of a Broadway Show, getting more press coverage then the Euro games as Finance Ministers from all the EU nations advance their own personal agendas while seeking as much press coverage as possible. Markets will be controlled by news flow and press with lots of incorrect, out dated and erroneous statements. Plans and programs will be leaked and divulged, none of which will have anything to do with the final outcome. Markets and Investors do not expect much from the carnival. Lots of Grand Plans and Master Schemes, which will take years to enact or never happen. Currency markets are expected to hold firm, as they have calmed leading into the Summit, risk aversion remains the overall theme.

 

Pressure is on the Finance Ministers to come up with a comprehensive plan to save the euro and the EU, today, as it might not exist to implement their long term schemes. This is D day.. Elsewhere, the US has had some positive eco data on the home front, with housing showing some life and Durable goods also on the positive side. Consumer confidence has been dragging, although with the drop in gasoline prices, markets were expecting a bit of a turn, but the jobs market continues to weigh on Americans. Japan, is in political turmoil, as Prime Minister Noda, risked all of this capital to pass the increase in Consumption Tax legislation, which passed with a wide margin, but now faces problems within his coalition as enough members voted against to lose his controlling interest.

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UPCOMING EVENTS :

2012-06-28 08:30 GMT UK - Gross Domestic Product

2012-06-28 09:00 GMT EMU - Consumer Confidence (Jun)

2012-06-28 12:30 GMT US - Gross Domestic Product

2012-06-28 12:30 GMT US - Core Personal Consumption Expenditures

 

FOREX NEWS :

2012-06-28 04:26 GMT EUR/USD jumps ahead of the EU Summit

2012-06-28 04:22 GMT Aud new houses and job vacancies came soft today.NAB

2012-06-28 02:58 GMT EUR/AUD dips to 3-month low

2012-06-28 02:09 GMT Eurozone leaders ready for summit – Rabobank

 

 

EURUSD : 1.25143 / 1.25149

DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY

 

 

1.2566 | 1.2537 | 1.2504

1.2442 | 1.2413 | 1.2380

 

SUMMARY : Down

TREND : Down trend

MA10 : Bearish

MA20 : Bearish

STOCHASTIC : Overbought

 

 

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

 

Technicals are mixed, with better risk/reward elsewhere. Short term, near term and long term are providing opposing signals. Near term support lies at 1.2440; while resistance comes in at the 1.2575, both congestion levels. Longer term signals have all become bearish, including Stochastic, RSI and MACD supporting the bearish outlook. Supports are seen at 1.2442 and then at 1.2380. Whereas daily resistance levels are seen at the 21-DMA line at 1.2530 and then at the 10-DMA line at 1.2583.

 

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GBPUSD : 1.55878 / 1.55888

DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY

 

 

1.5721 | 1.5681 | 1.5626

1.5531 | 1.5491 | 1.5436

 

SUMMARY : Down

TREND : Down trend

MA10 : Bearish

MA20 : Bullish

STOCHASTIC : Overbought

 

 

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

 

Technicals remain mixed with trading within a triangular consolidation pattern, resistance remains at 9 day MA (1.5650), and near term support is at the 21 day MA (1.5547). Short term signals are supporting a strong bullish run for the present, where as daily signals are the complete opposites offering a strong bearish outlook. Daily supports are seen at the 21-DMA line at 1.5540 and then at 1.5535. Whereas, resistance levels are seen at 1.5721 and then at 1.5797.

 

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USDJPY : 79.450 / 79.453

DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY

 

 

80.420 | 80.145 | 79.908

79.395 | 79.125 | 78.885

 

SUMMARY : Down

TREND : Down trend

MA10 : Bearish

MA20 : Bearish

STOCHASTIC : Oversold

 

 

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

 

Technicals are mixed but shifting to a sell mode, with support over past two sessions seen at 9 day MA (79.53), with resistance at 50 day MA (79.75) over the same period. Daily supports are seen at 79.36 and then at 79.12. On the other hand, resistance levels are seen at 80.09 and then at 80.63. Yesterday's outlook remains in place today, a break above Tuesdays top and nearest resistance 80.62 would encourage further recovery of the dollar. Immediate support is Tuesday's bottom at 79.36, and a consistent break below could strengthen the yen further down towards next target 78.55.

 

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd, (http://www.fxcc.com)

[alayoua]

Market Overview by FXCC July 2 2012

 

Market Overview by FXCC July 2 2012

 

Chinese PMI disappoints

 

U.S. stocks soared on Friday, and all three indexes closed out the first half of 2012 up more than 5%. NASDAQ has etched double-digit gains. Dow Jones closed the day up 278 points, or 2.2%. S&P 500 gained 33 points, or 2.5%. Nasdaq added 86 points, or 3%. A deal among European leaders to help struggling eurozone banks buoyed global markets Friday, at least temporarily erasing investors' looming fears over the viability of the eurozone. While stocks have clocked broad gains for the year, all three indexes closed out the second quarter below first quarter highs. Fears over Europe pushed stocks down nearly 10% in early June. Still, on Friday, investors looked solely at what was accomplished at the two-day European Union summit in Brussels. European leaders struck a "breakthrough" deal early Friday aimed at easing the recapitalization of banks. The European markets surged after European leaders agreed to the recapitalization plan and a tighter union. Britain's FTSE added 2%, DAX in Germany jumped 3.5% and France's CAC 40 rallied 3.8%.

 

Except for Shanghai, which trades marginally lower by 0.2%, all the other Asian indices are trading in the green. Nikkei & Strait Times are up by 0.1% & 0.5% respectively, while Taiwan is up by 0.4%. Kospi is trading on a flat note. Among the metals, Aluminum lost 0.3% while Copper gained the most (2.4%). Zinc and Nickel rose by 2.2% and 0.2% respectively. Oil for August delivery rose $7.27 to $84.96 a barrel. Gold futures for August delivery as high as $53.8 to $1,604.2 an ounce Coming up this week, the US will celebrates their Independence Day holiday in the middle of the week but the trading week will still have some important headlines, including a European Central Bank meeting and U.S. unemployment data. There will be an ECB rate announcement where expectations are of a 0.25% cut to a record low 0.75%., German and Spanish industrial production and airlines release traffic numbers.

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UPCOMING EVENTS :

2012-07-02 08:00 GMT | EMU - Markit Manufacturing PMI

2012-07-02 08:28 GMT | UK - Markit Manufacturing PMI

2012-07-02 09:00 GMT | EMU - Unemployment Rate (May)

2012-07-02 14:00 GMT | US - ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jun)

 

FOREX NEWS :

2012-07-02 04:45 GMT | GBP/USD consolidates around 1.5660

2012-07-02 04:19 GMT | BoE will ease more than expected, stay wary on Cable - UBS

2012-07-02 03:46 GMT | Probability to re-price RBNZ rate cuts - BNZ

2012-07-02 03:10 GMT | AUD/NZD down with regional PMI readings

 

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EURUSD : 1.26251 / 1.26255

DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY

 

 

1.2723 | 1.2696 | 1.2671

1.2621 | 1.2586 | 1.2561

 

SUMMARY : Neutral

TREND : Sideway

MA10 : Bullish

MA20 : Bullish

STOCHASTIC : Neutral

 

 

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

 

EUR/USD opened the week with bearish momentum, off from a high of 1.2676. The pair was likely to find support at 1.2408, Thursday’s low, and resistance at 1.2692, Friday’s high. The short term bias remains mildly on the upside for 1.2747. A break will target 100% projection of 1.2287 to 1.2747 from 1.2406 at 1.2866 next. Expect strong resistance from 61.8% retracement at 1.2902 this will limit the upside. A break below 1.2406 is needed to signal completion of the current move and a return to the bearish outlook.

 

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GBPUSD : 1.56686 / 1.56696

DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY

 

 

1.5747 | 1.5719 | 1.5694

1.5659 | 1.5621 | 1.5602

 

SUMMARY : Neutral

TREND : Up trend

MA10 : Bullish

MA20 : Bullish

STOCHASTIC : Neutral

 

 

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

 

Sterling is hanging at the key resistance area at the 1.57 level with the downward sloping trend line from the April 30th high connecting to the June 20th high at 1.56785. The upward channel trend line which was broken last week comes in at the 1.56818. The price is above the 38.2% retracement. This is all bullish for the pair. The next key target will come in at the 1.5748 level and then at 1.5783 (50% of the move down from April high) and 100 day MA at 1.5813.The pair could reverse and become bearish if it violates the1.5661 level and then the 1.5634 level.

 

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USDJPY : 79.624 / 79.629

DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY

 

 

80.650 | 80.150 | 79.930

79.570 | 79.335 | 79.170

 

SUMMARY : Neutral

TREND : Down trend

MA10 : Bearish

MA20 : Bullish

STOCHASTIC : Overbought

 

 

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

 

Looking at the hourly chart the price has moved above the 100 and 200 hour MA at the 79.60 level (bullish). Staying above this level keeps the bulls in control. With a move below, the bullish bias disappears. The next upside targets become the 80.044 (61.8% of the weeks range) and the 80.14 (38.2% of the move down from the March 2012 high, and the key 100 day MA at the 80.56 level. A break above (or even below if the price cannot stay above the 79.50-60 area), should be met with increased momentum.

 

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd, (http://www.fxcc.com)

[alayoua]

Market Overview by FXCC July 3 2012

 

Market Overview by FXCC July 3 2012

 

US Markets closed tomorrow, ECB and BoE rate decision due on Thursday and US Nonfarm Payroll on Friday…

 

Asian equities have surged drastically and are up by 1.50%, whereas the US markets closed mixed. On the economic front today, we have U.K’s PMI construction and Net Consumer Credit data, which is expected to come in lower than before. From the Eurozone, the PPI data is expected to come in slightly positive. The dollar index, which compares the US unit to a basket of other currencies, was trading at 81.888 on Monday, up from 81.658 in North American trade late Friday.

 

US manufacturing shrank in June for the first time in nearly 3-years, adding to signs of a slowdown in the recovery but raised hopes for more easing from the Federal Reserve. Iran's National Security and Foreign Policy Committee has drafted a bill calling for Iran to try to stop oil tankers from shipping crude through the Strait of Hormuz helped curb oil price losses, especially for Brent crude

Read More

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UPCOMING EVENTS :

2012-07-03 08:30 GMT | UK - Consumer Credit (May)

2012-07-03 09:00 GMT | EMU - Producer Price Index (May)

2012-07-03 13:45 GMT | US - ISM New York index (Jun)

2012-07-03 14:00 GMT | US - Factory Orders (MoM) (May)

 

FOREX NEWS :

2012-07-03 04:36 GMT | RBA leaves rates unchanged; monetary policy appropiate

2012-07-03 04:11 GMT | GBP/USD quiet around 1.5700; UK data ahead

2012-07-03 03:33 GMT | USD/JPY jumps to session highs 79.80

2012-07-03 02:20 GMT | EUR/NZD threatening all-time lows

 

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EURUSD : 1.25970 / 1.25973

DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY

 

 

1.2742 | 1.2705 | 1.2642

1.2542 | 1.2505 | 1.2442

 

SUMMARY : Neutral

TREND : Up trend

MA10 : Bullish

MA20 : Bullish

STOCHASTIC : Neutral

 

 

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

 

The euro has managed to sustain above 1.2575 level, and it may test higher levels of 1.2890, which is a 50% Fibonacci retracement level for the 1.3486-1.2286 range, in the near term. The RSI -14 momentum indicator is currently trading at 0.40 and is inching higher, supporting up move in the pair. Expect the euro to continue it's up move. The supports are at 1.2575 then 1.2477 and resistances are at 1.2742 then 1.2890. The pair tested the 8-period EMA on the weekly charts, but did not manage to close above it.

 

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GBPUSD : 1.56962 / 1.56972

DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY

 

 

1.5808 1.5765 1.5728

1.5648 1.5605 1.5568

 

SUMMARY : Up

TREND : Up trend

MA10 : Bullish

MA20 : Bullish

STOCHASTIC : Oversold

 

 

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

 

The weekly chart indicates the pair forming a “triple-bottom pattern”. Currently, the GBP is trading above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the downward rally (1.6301-1.5265). The RSI-14 momentum indicator is hovering at 0.47 with a positive bias. Expect the pound to move higher and test levels of 1.5780. A break above this level will bring forth the next resistance at 1.5910, or 61.8% retracement level. Meanwhile, supports are evident at 1.5583 of a trendline and then at 1.5500

 

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USDJPY : 79.743 / 79.747

DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY

 

 

80.310 | 80.085 | 79.770

79.225 | 79.000 | 78.685

 

SUMMARY : Neutral

TREND : Sideway

MA10 : Bearish

MA20 : Bullish

STOCHASTIC : Overbought

 

 

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

 

The charts indicate the support of a trend line drawn connecting the lower bottoms. The RSI-14 has been hovering around 0.50 for the last few weeks and is not indicating a clear trend for the pair. Expect the yen to once again test the lower trend line supports of 79.40-79.50 and to rebound from the same. If the yen manages to sustain above 80.18, which is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level for the 84.17-77.66 range, then the pair may test higher levels of 80.95. Supports are at 79.50 then 79.10 and resistances are at 80.17 then 80.94.

 

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd, (http://www.fxcc.com)

[alayoua]

Market Overview by FXCC July 5 2012

 

Market Overview by FXCC July 5 2012

 

Central Bank Day… The ECB and the BoE go heads up

 

This morning Asian share markets are down over 1.5% as they await the ECB decision. Yesterday Asian markets had continued to outperform for the third consecutive day which marked yet another session of consolidation marking marginal gains after clocking large gains post the European summit last week. Broader indices clambered almost a percent. Global indices too witnessed an assorted trading session as investors hoped for an eased monetary stance by the central banks to support the faltering economy. The market is waiting upon the ECB and the Bank of England meetings today which will provide some direction to the markets.

 

The European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BOE) are both meeting on this morning, and the former is likely cut rates by 25 basis points to its record-low. The BOE may introduce more stimuli after keeping the benchmark rate at an all-time low of 0.5% in June. Yesterday, US markets were closed for the 4th of July holiday so it was light volume all around with little on the news front, little in eco data and little on the political front, except some rhetoric from Iran, pushing up crude oil prices.

Read More

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UPCOMING EVENTS :

2012-07-05 11:00 GMT UK - BoE Interest Rate Decision

2012-07-05 11:00 GMT UK - BoE Asset Purchase Facility

2012-07-05 11:45 GMT EMU - ECB Interest Rate Decision

2012-07-05 12:15 GMT US - ADP Employment Change

 

FOREX NEWS :

2012-07-05 04:27 GMT EUR/USD blocked above 1.2500 ahead of ECB

2012-07-05 04:17 GMT GBP/USD consolidates below 1.56, BoE eyed

2012-07-05 03:21 GMT ECB to hold fire; Draghi statement key - UBS

2012-07-05 02:06 GMT USD/JPY breaks above 80.00

 

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EURUSD :

DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY

 

 

1.2679 | 1.2643 | 1.2580

1.2481 | 1.2445 | 1.2382

 

SUMMARY : Down

TREND : Down trend

MA10 : Bearish

MA20 : Bearish

STOCHASTIC : Overbought

 

 

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

 

Signals remain mixed, range trading with support at Friday’s open of 1.2443 and resistance at the 50- day MA of 1.2702. Risk/return is better elsewhere. Firm and sustained trading below 1.2550 however, will be a strong sign that the bears have taken control here again.

 

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GBPUSD : 1.56058 / 1.56067

DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY

 

 

1.5772 | 1.5731 | 1.5657

1.5542 | 1.5501 | 1.5427

 

SUMMARY : Down

TREND : Down trend

MA10 : Bearish

MA20 : Bearish

STOCHASTIC : Oversold

 

 

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

 

Signals are mixed although indicators show that the upward momentum has ended with a strong potential for decline. Expect further weakness today to the next important support level at 1.5545/40. Below this support will confirm that the larger degree downtrend on daily chart has likely resumed and strong weakness should follow.

 

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USDJPY : 79.766 / 79.770

DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY

 

 

80.455 | 80.215 | 80.081

79.705 | 79.465 | 79.340

 

SUMMARY : Up

TREND : Up trend

MA10 : Bullish

MA20 : Bullish

STOCHASTIC : Neutral

 

 

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

 

Signals are bullish - indicators all point to upward movement; support is at 21 day MA 79.55. The pair has been trading sideways between 79.60 and 80.00 but a break out of this range is likely to occur soon. There is strong favor the upside here. A move above 80.00 should be enough to signal that a rally toward 83.80 level has begun.

 

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd, (http://www.fxcc.com)

[alayoua]

Market Overview by FXCC July 6 2012

 

Market Overview by FXCC July 6 2012

 

Central Banks are the focus of the markets.

 

The euro fell against a range of currencies in European trading hours Thursday as investors sold the common currency on expectations that the European Central Bank will cut its key interest rate to record lows. Markets had already factored in the rate cut, but it was the decision of the ECB to change its deposit rate to 0 and then the pessimistic statement issued by the ECB President. The Bank of England decision to increase asset purchase by 50 billion pounds, which was a widely expected pushed dollar index lower.

 

China surprised the markets by lowering its rate and now the markets are focused on the US Nonfarm report due later today. A poor report might for the Fed to action, or a strong report will see the USD gain against its partners.

Read More

 

 

UPCOMING EVENTS :

2012-07-06 08:30 GMT | UK - Producer Price Index - (Jun)

2012-07-06 10:00 GMT | GERMANY - Industrial Production - (May)

2012-07-06 12:30 GMT | US - Nonfarm Payrolls - (Jun)

2012-07-06 12:30 GMT | CANADA - Unemployment Rate - (Jun)

 

FOREX NEWS :

2012-07-06 04:34 GMT | GBP/USD directionless, hovers above 1.55

2012-07-06 04:03 GMT | EUR/USD frozen ahead of NFP

2012-07-06 03:14 GMT | Japan may run out of money in October, Azumi warns

2012-07-06 02:31 GMT | AUD will push towards USD1.07 by mid next year - ANZ

 

-----------

EURUSD : 1.23848 / 1.23854

DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY

 

 

1.2694 | 1.2620 | 1.2565

1.2481 | 1.2452 | 1.2397

 

SUMMARY : Neutral

TREND : Sideway

MA10 : Bearish

MA20 : Bearish

STOCHASTIC : Neutral

 

 

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

 

Technicals are mixed, range trading with support 1.2343 and resistance at the 50-day MA of 1.2687. Risk/return is better elsewhere. The might be an early correction to move back to Friday's close at 1.2443 but this pair is moving randomly. The overall downtrend is back on line. The outlook remains on the daily charts to trend downwards toward the1.2285. A break above 1.25 could change to a bullish scenario.

 

--------------

GBPUSD : 1.55305 / 1.55315

DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY

 

 

1.5734 | 1.5699 | 1.5639

1.5544 | 1.5509 | 1.5449

 

SUMMARY : Neutral

TREND : Sideway

MA10 : Bearish

MA20 : Bearish

STOCHASTIC : Neutral

 

 

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

 

Technicals remain bearish and most indicators suggest downward movement, support seen at 1.5500. The implications are for weakness below 1.5484. On the verge of taking out 1.5484 Resistance at 1.5700-1.5730 is vital for the movement of the currency pair. Supports are seen at 1.5485 and then at 1.5454. The long term outlook continues to be bearish with a target of 1.5450

 

------------

USDJPY : 79.906 / 79.912

DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY

 

 

80.515 | 80.300 | 79.980

79.450 | 79.235 | 78.915

 

SUMMARY : Down

TREND : Down trend

MA10 : Bearish

MA20 : Bullish

STOCHASTIC : Neutral

 

 

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

 

Technicals are reading bullish as the ranging upward movement continues; support is at 21 day MA (79.57). The USDJPY did indeed exceed 80 but conviction on the move is lacking, it will need to break above 80.61 with conviction. Supports are seen at 79.55 and then at 79.12 where as resistance levels are seen at 80.63, 81.15 and then at 81.45.

 

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd, (http://www.fxcc.com)

[alayoua]

Market Overview by FXCC July 10 2012

 

Market Overview by FXCC July 10 2012

 

Chinese Economic Data continues to disappoint as trade balance widens.

 

This morning's Chinese Trade Balance is making headlines in all the news. Imports grew 6.3% in June, versus expectations for an 11.3% rise, and below a 12.7% gain in May, according to official data. Export shipments grew 11.3% for the month, ahead of the 9% rise expected but down from May’s 15.3% rise. Markets are all ready registering disappointment. Yesterday, China released a good deal of data with lackluster results.

 

Also, the Eurogroup issued a statement towards the close of their meeting stating that they were agreeing to an extension of Spain’s budget targets and moving closer to providing financial assistance to Spanish banks, they also noted that they were continuing to move ahead on the ESM and the banking plan introduced on June 29th by the EU Ministers, but otherwise very little occurred. Markets were disappointed. As earning season arrives, Alcoa kicked off with news of a loss which will also weigh heavily on the markets today.

Read More

https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/10072012/

 

UPCOMING EVENTS :

2012-07-10 08:30 GMT | UK - Industrial & Manufacturing Production

2012-07-10 12:15 GMT | CAD - Housing Starts s.a (YoY) (Jun)

2012-07-10 14:00 GMT | UK - NIESR GDP Estimate (3M) (Jun)

2012-07-10 23:00 GMT | AUD - RBA Deputy Governor Lowe Speaks

 

FOREX NEWS :

2012-07-10 04:35 GMT | GBP/USD slips to 1.55; UK data eyed

2012-07-10 04:17 GMT | EUR/USD back to square for the week

2012-07-10 02:03 GMT | China Jun Trade Balance 31.73B

2012-07-10 02:03 GMT | China Imports (YoY) 6.3% in Jun

 

--------------

EURUSD : 1.22937 / 1.22941

DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY

 

 

1.2392 | 1.2358 | 1.2338

1.2284 | 1.2250 | 1.2230

 

SUMMARY : Down

TREND : Down trend

MA10 : Bearish

MA20 : Bearish

STOCHASTIC : Overbought

 

 

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

 

The pair has breached the previous low of 1.2332 and the key supports currently are at 1.2180 (50% of the Fibonacci retracement level for the 0.82 to 1.60 range) then 1.1880 in the near term. RSI-14 momentum indicator is also tending towards the downside and is currently reading 0.33. Supports are at 1.2150 then 1.2080 and resistances are at 1.2392 then 1.2450. - Technicals show that a bearish downside momentum is building.

 

-----------------

GBPUSD : 1.55086 / 1.55096

DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY

 

 

1.5616 | 1.5575 | 1.5552

1.5488 | 1.5447 | 1.5424

 

SUMMARY : Down

TREND : Down trend

MA10 : Bearish

MA20 : Bearish

STOCHASTIC : Overbought

 

 

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

 

The pair has breached the trend line support of 1.5540 and closed below it. RSI is reading 0.43 and is tending towards the downside. The charts show a minor pullback can be expected shortly and may test the trend line resistance of 1.5560 and may sell at these levels. At present, the support is at 1.5453, and a breach of this level will see the next support coming in at 1.5360. The near-term scenario will remain weak; if it continues to decline further, then it may test lower levels of 1.5250. Meanwhile, the resistance is evident at 1.5560 then 1.5640. Technicals are bearish look for a breach of the June 28 low 1.5485 leaves 1.5450 as the next key level.

 

-----------------

USDJPY : 79.498 / 79.502

DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY

 

 

80.015 | 79.890 | 79.730

79.445 | 79.315 | 79.155

 

SUMMARY : Down

TREND : Down trend

MA10 : Bearish

MA20 : Bearish

STOCHASTIC : Neutral

 

 

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

 

The pair traded sideways to close on a negative note. Although the pair breached the major EMAs (8-day, 21-day and 34-day), it failed to sustain above those levels. RSI has been hovering in the same range of 0.50, and, therefore, is not indicating a clear direction for the pair. In the near term, the yen may trade slightly lower before witnessing some buying pressure at lower levels. Supports are seen at 79.17 then 78.70 while resistances are at 80.13 then 80.90. Technicals are mixed - recent uptrend has slowed, though support remains near 21 DMA (79.59)

 

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd, (http://www.fxcc.com)

[alayoua]

Market Overview by FXCC July 11 2012

 

Market Overview by FXCC July 11 2012

 

China the main focus, with thin eco data as the EUR remains under pressure

 

Wall Street shares traded with a negative bias as they reviewed Chinese international trade data that implied that the Chinese economy is slowing. Energy prices fell, with WTI crude for delivery in August closing just under USD 84 per barrel and the August natural gas was trading at USD 2.73. CAD while USDCAD closed above 1.02 while EURUSD also sold off, closing at 1.2250. Equities were lower, with the S&P 500 down by 0.75% after being down as much as 1.2%. The TSX closed down by a steeper 1% amidst the selloff in basic resources and oil and gas names. Bonds were fairly flat.

 

It was a thin day in terms of economic data, with Canadian housing starts the only event on the docket. Canadian housing starts came in quite strong at 222.7 (that’s a seasonally adjusted annualized rate – not the actual amount of housing starts). The skew was radically tilted towards ‘multis’, which accounted for the lion’s share of the housing starts and all of the growth. It should be a fairly quiet in terms of economic data releases. This is the week during which China releases its main economic indicators, and while there are no measures from the real side of the economy due to be released; there is a chance that the credit and money market metrics could come out

Read More

https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/11072012/

 

 

UPCOMING EVENTS :

2012-07-11 12:30 GMT | US - Trade Balance (May)

2012-07-11 14:00 GMT | US - Wholesale Inventories (May)

2012-07-11 17:00 GMT | US - 10-Year Note Auction

2012-07-11 18:00 GMT | US - FOMC Minutes

 

FOREX NEWS :

2012-07-11 04:19 GMT | EUR/USD choppiness ahead of FOMC minutes

2012-07-11 03:49 GMT | Market smells disappointment from the BOJ - Nomura

2012-07-11 03:21 GMT | AUD/USD oscilates ahead of Aus jobs data

2012-07-11 02:22 GMT | EUR/GBP dips to fresh 3-1/2 year low under 0.7900

 

 

EURUSD : 1.22651 / 1.22652

DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY

 

 

1.2412 | 1.2373 | 1.2314

1.2216 | 1.2177 | 1.2118

 

SUMMARY : Down

TREND : Down trend

MA10 : Bearish

MA20 : Bearish

STOCHASTIC : Overbought

 

 

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

 

Technicals remain bearish with RSI at 32 indicates that decline has not yet reached oversold levels. The EUR continues to consolidated just above the recent lows and it seems it is preparing for the next leg lower and should bring us close to 1.2145. That bearish outlook is valid as long as the prices stay below the important 1.2345 Fibonacci level. Supports are seen at 1.2230, 1.2190 and then at 1.2151. Whereas resistance levels are seen at 1.2365, 1.2401 and then at the 10-DMA line at 1.2456.

 

---------------

GBPUSD : 1.55359 / 1.55369

DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY

 

 

1.5621 | 1.5585 | 1.5550

1.5479 | 1.5443 | 1.5408

 

SUMMARY : Down

TREND : Down trend

MA10 : Bearish

MA20 : Bearish

STOCHASTIC : Oversold

 

 

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

 

Technicals continue to read bearish - consolidation seen around 1.5500, with limited range. The outlook remains bearish and expects weakness near 1.5260 Fibo level. On the upside, a break above 1.5550 will negate this view and will suggest larger recovery near 1.5620Supports are seen at 1.5470 and then at 1.5448. Whereas, resistance levels are seen at 1.5551 and then at the 10-DMA line at 1.5580, followed by the 21-DMA line at 1.5601.

 

---------------

USDJPY : 79.363 / 79.369

DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY

 

 

79.915 | 79.745 | 79.550

79.190 | 79.020 | 78.825

 

SUMMARY : Down

TREND : Down trend

MA10 : Bearish

MA20 : Bearish

STOCHASTIC : Overbought

 

 

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

 

Technicals are reading bearish as the uptrend appears to have stalled, look to support at 200 day MA 78.99. At present the pressure is on the downside though and there is a greater risk for a downside break. But until such a break is seen, it is more reasonable to assume that the current consolidation will remain intact. Although some kind of a recovery can be expected in the short term. Supports are seen at 79.22 and then at 78.97. Whereas, resistance levels are seen at 79.62 and then at 79.78.

 

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd, (http://www.fxcc.com)

[alayoua]

Market Overview by FXCC July 12 2012

 

Market Overview by FXCC July 12 2012

 

Not much in the FOMC Minutes … BoJ decision today

 

Markets sold off following the release of the minutes from the FOMC’s June 19-20 meeting (i.e. the meeting at which the Fed extended and increased its maturity extension program or ‘Operation Twist’). The S&P 500 closed flat at 1340, the NASDAQ was lower by 0.5%, and the TSX closed marginally higher. Government bonds were essentially flat and while EURUSD briefly traded below 1.22 it closed trading near 1.2243, close to where it started today’s European trading session.

 

Crude rebounded strongly today: Brent closed above USD 100 per barrel and WTI closed above USD 86 after data released by the Energy Information Administration showed that US crude stockpiles were drawn down by 4.7m barrels during the week ended July 6 (vs. expectations for a draw in the 1.5m barrels neighborhood).

Read More

https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/12072012/

 

UPCOMING EVENTS :

2012-07-12 08:00 GMT | EMU - ECB Monthly Report

2012-07-12 09:00 GMT | EMU - Industrial Production (May)

2012-07-12 12:30 GMT | US - Initial Jobless Claims (Jun)

2012-07-12 12:30 GMT | CAD - New Housing Price Index (May)

 

FOREX NEWS :

2012-07-12 04:33 GMT | GBP/USD consolidates around 1.5500

2012-07-12 04:29 GMT | EUR/USD quiet below 1.2250 amid a busy Asian session

2012-07-12 04:10 GMT | USD/JPY spikes after Y45t APP increase

2012-07-12 03:58 GMT | BoJ increases asset purchases 45 trillion yen

 

 

EURUSD : 1.22300 / 1.22304

DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY

 

 

1.2372 | 1.2334 | 1.2289

1.2206 | 1.2168 | 1.2123

 

SUMMARY : Down

TREND : Down trend

MA10 : Bearish

MA20 : Bearish

STOCHASTIC : Oversold

 

 

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

 

Technicals remain bearish - expecting to test further lows as indicators are not yet bearish enough but continuing to consolidating below the key 1.2330 resistance, which should limit intraday upside attempts. Expect a break of the support here then a move initially to the support at 1.2216. A break of that targets the .50% Fibo at 1.2176 and then at 1.2135. Supports are seen at 1.2230, 1.2190 and then at 1.2132 where as resistance levels are seen at 1.2334 and then at 1.2401. Stochastic has just moved to oversold, giving a hint of what we might expect today, although MACD and RSI are centered in sell territory

 

---------------

GBPUSD : 1.54891 / 1.54900

DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY

 

 

1.5654 | 1.5616 | 1.5563

1.5472 | 1.5434 | 1.5381

 

SUMMARY : Down

TREND : Down trend

MA10 : Bearish

MA20 : Bearish

STOCHASTIC : Oversold

 

 

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

 

Technicals continue to be mixed moving quickly towards bearish with congestion seen at current levels and resistance expected at 1.5600. The pair surpassed the 1.5550 resistance, but could not sustain. Our outlook remains bearish. Supports are seen at 1.5461 and then at 1.5445 whereas, resistance levels are seen at the 10-DMA line at 1.5582 and then at the 21-DMA line at 1.5601.

 

----------------

USDJPY : 79.488 / 79.491

DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY

 

 

80.540 | 80.165 | 79.885

79.235 | 78.860 | 78.580

 

SUMMARY : Down

TREND : Down trend

MA10 : Bearish

MA20 : Bearish

STOCHASTIC : Oversold

 

 

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

 

Technicals are bearish with a continued decline expected in the near term, given a breach of 50 day MA 79.52. The pair is gradually pushing to the downside, approaching the awaited support level at 79.10. In general the longer term overall bullish setup remains intact, and therefore the long term outlook remains bullish. Supports are seen at 79.08, 78.94 and then at 78.79 whereas, resistance levels are seen at 79.78 and then at 80.02.

 

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd, (http://www.fxcc.com)

[profi4ever]

eur/usd sure up trend

[profi4ever]

gbp/usd trend sure is uptrend

[profi4ever]

eur/gbp not move voilinty

[profi4ever]

very strong support eur/usd 1.2310

[profi4ever]

very strong resistance 1.2160

[profi4ever]

today market will open big gab

[profi4ever]

i prefer no trading mon day becaus market not clear

[profi4ever]

if any one trading mon day i prefer working sclaping

[profi4ever]

i will buy gpb/jpy 122.50

[profi4ever]

i will sell gbp/jpy at price 125.000

[profi4ever]

usd/cad is very clear chart to buy

[profi4ever]

usd/chf very clear chart to sell

[profi4ever]

cad/ jpy very clear chart to sell

[ianf0ster]

i will sell gbp/jpy at price 125.000

Why not write everything in one post, rather than make so many separate one-sentence posts?

[alayoua]

Market Overview by FXCC July 16 2012

 

Market Overview by FXCC July 16 2012

 

US to face huge eco data risks this week

 

Asian markets will be exceptionally quiet next week. Only a pair of central bank minutes are due out - one from the RBA on Monday and the other from the BoJ on Tuesday — and will be parsed for clues regarding recent and future expected policy actions in the wake of stimulus measures provided by both central banks.

 

European markets will be relatively more subdued in terms of risk influences upon markets in comparison to developments in the US. Italy is expected to approve the ESM apparatus and fiscal pact. US markets will face enormous risk on each of the corporate earnings, policy, and economic fundamentals calendars next week. Data risk will kick off the week with retail sales expected to come in largely flat on Monday.

Read More

https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/16072012/

 

2012-07-16 09:00 GMT | EMU - Consumer Price Index (June)

2012-07-16 12:30 GMT | Canadian portfolio investment in foreign securities

2012-07-16 12:30 GMT | US - Retail Sales (Jun)

2012-07-16 14:00 GMT | US - Business Inventories (May)

 

 

2012-07-15 22:42 GMT | Market response to Bernanke could be savage - NAB

2012-07-15 22:22 GMT | AUD/USD quiet around 1.0250, eyes 0.618 Fibo resistance

2012-07-15 22:16 GMT | ECB views on bondholders losses makes a 'risk-off' turn

2012-07-15 22:02 GMT | China has 'relatively big' room to cut RRR - Xinhua

 

 

EURUSD : 1.22412 / 1.22417

DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY

 

 

1.2293 : 1.2283 : 1.2265

1.2237 : 1.2227 : 1.2209

 

SUMMARY| Down

TREND| Down trend

MA10 | Bearish

MA20 | Bearish

STOCHASTIC | Oversold

 

 

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

 

Technicals continue to read bearish, with a new 2-year low and all signals in sell territory. However, the RSI at 36 warns of EUR approaching oversold levels. Stochastic has crossed over into oversold territory, indicating that this pair could see an upward correction in the near future. The pair has reached its minimum in the last two years, having fallen from a peak of 1.2247 reaching its lowest level at 1.2165. If today the pair is able to break the key support at 1.2165, the next level is 1.2150, while breaking the 1.2250 resistance may postpone the attainment of these expectations. If it is successfully pushed back down then it could fall to the 1.2125; if, however, it breaks out higher than it would rally to 1.2300.

 

-------------

GBPUSD 1.55717 / 1.55727

DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY

 

 

1.5639 : 1.5607 : 1.5590

1.5563 : 1.5526 : 1.5403

 

SUMMARY | Neutral

TREND | Up trend

MA10 | Bullish

MA20 | Bullish

STOCHASTIC | Neutral

 

 

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

 

Technicals are neutral and confused after Friday's surges in prices expect a rally to the.382 Fibonacci at 1.5595 and then a move back to the S5 at 1.5400. A break up would target the 1.5700. Most long-term technical indicators place this pair in neutral territory, meaning that at present there is no defined trend. Most likely the pair will try to test support at 1.5570, while breaking the level of 1.5575 would delay the realization of these expectations.

 

--------------

USDJPY : 79.126 / 79.131

DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY

 

 

79.735 : 79.435 : 79.270

79.035 : 78.845 : 78.655

 

SUMMARY | Down

TREND | Down trend

MA10 | Bearish

MA20 | Bearish

STOCHASTIC | Oversold

 

 

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

 

Technicals are bearish - trading towards the lower end of recent range, with support at 200 day MA 79.03, Price is currently at 79.10 sitting right on the support line, just below the .500 Fibonacci at 79.17 in a sideways choppy move. A break of this will confirm the move to 79.00. A breakdown there looks for the double bottom at 77.67 but before we could see a move toward 78.80. While the daily chart's MACD/MA has formed a bearish cross, indicating that this pair could see downward movement in the near future, most other technical indicators show this pair range-trading. Just a reminder, Japanese markets are on holiday today.

 

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd, (http://www.fxcc.com)