One trade per week (a work-in-progress trading idea)

[⭐ dukeaugustus]

I have found this trading system interesting and have made an indicator for it, which projects the 90 pip levels.

 

The JPY pairs do seem to have been punishing the strategy though as you indicated.

 

As it seems there are still a few who read this thread, so I just updated Post #4 and bring the 2012 results up-to-date.

 

As I mentioned in a previous post, I am not trading this live at the moment. And as maximillian mentioned, it has been the jpy pairs that are carrying the profits. More specifically, the EurJpy is in a very strong streak this year, more than double the total pips of GbpJpy. And even the formerly reliable USDCAD is now in the net negative for 2012 overall.

 

I also noticed that, typical of Murphy's Law, as soon as I suspended trading this method live at end of week of 7 May, the next five weeks gave us 4 winning weeks to 1 losing week, with a net pip gain of over 300 pips.

 

Still I am not tempted to try live again at least until after August, mindful of the jpy pairs' poor result last year during the three months of summer.

[⭐ dukeaugustus]

A Final Update and Summary of the year-long test

 

As 2012 is drawing to a close, for the sake of completeness, I have updated the results post (post #4)

 

This will probably my last post on this thread. But here are some of my concluding thoughts and observations about this one year project:

 

(1) Only two of the four currency pairs I started this project with, have survived the test of this one-year test. Only EJ and GJ have remained profitable. The original UsdCad and EurChf have decreased their weekly range so much that they are practically not worth trading this method on. I dropped EurChf back in March. And UsdCad have so few trades that I have not traded this since middle of the year.

 

(2) Moving forward, and without changing the original rules, I may only consider GJ and EJ as worthwhile.

 

Here are some of their statistics so far:

 

GbpJpy

2011 Total pips = 1525

2012 Total pips = 1198

 

EurJpy

2011 Total pips = 0835

2012 Total pips = 1475

 

Combined GbpJpy + EurJpy

2011 = 2,360 pips

2012 = 2,673 pips

 

Other statistics:

two years GbpJpy win percentage: 65%

two years EurJpy win percentage: 66%

 

Longest GbpJpy losing streak: 8 weeks

Longest EurJpy losing streak: 7 weeks

Longest combined losing streak: 3 weeks

 

Longest GbpJpy winning streak: 5 weeks

Longest EurJpy winning streak: 3 weeks

Longest combined winning streak: 6 weeks

 

Biggest combined drawdown from prior maximum pips gained: -540 pips

 

(3) Although individually they seem to have fluctuated in pips gain over two years, but combined, their total annual gain are very consistent from one year to the next: 2360 versus 2673, almost the same. Also it pays to trade both pairs together, as it cut down losing streak, increase winning streak, and smooth out the equity curve.

 

(4) Another note is that, although I cautioned about not trading in summer from June to August, due to 2011 results showing bad losing streak around that time. However, looking at 2012, it is actually more profitable if I had traded through all the months, including summer months. So only time will tell if summer should be followed on this method.

 

(5) As stated in my first post, this was never meant to be anyone's main income earner. But it can still be used in the background as a small sideline and long term earner, especially the time and energy required to manage this is so small. If I am willing to ignore week to week, or even month to month performance, and only take a longer time view, I will probably continue to trade the two yen pairs next year.

 

(6) Final word of caution is that, noticing the possible drawdown, with maximum drawdown of 540 pips over a two years period, money management will be always important. Make sure the account can survive such a drawdown (or possibly even more).

 

Although I will most likely trade this in the background, but this is probably my last post on this thread, and therefore the end of this thread. My focus and attention are now elsewhere.

 

Thanks for everyone who had helped or encouraged over this last year

 

Wish everyone a happy holiday season.

[Fruzmarus]

As 2012 is drawing to a close, for the sake of completeness, I have updated the results post (post #4)

.......................................................................

Although I will most likely trade this in the background, but this is probably my last post on this thread, and therefore the end of this thread. My focus and attention are now elsewhere.

 

Thanks for everyone who had helped or encouraged over this last year

 

Wish everyone a happy holiday season.

 

Hello dukeaugustus,

Sorry for being almost a year late, I spent a few days looking through your thread...

Don't know how you are doing elsewhere, but perhaps you were a little in a hurry to quit.

The point is, I moved a bit farther with the same approach and found something real

interesting and even amazing.

Please contact me. I hope it is going to be worth your time. You may turn out to have your

mind changed and come back to grouping trading idea.

Please contact me.

[Fruzmarus]

Hello again dukeaugustus,

I received your PM, thank you for it.

Tried to send you my reply. but strangely, though I remember placing about 5 posts asking for help to contact you only(not to mention some others), when it comes to my sending a PM I only see "You have 1 post, you cannot send PMs."

So I have to reply here.

Why irregularly, have you quit?

If not, I would like to build my grouping of the four pairs you used to work with and show it to you.

You will see and understand what I mean.

Can you give me your email in the PM?