Market update by UWCFX - 05.08.2011

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21.09.2011

EUR/USD:

the intrigue remains!

 

That fact, that negotiations between Greece and EU, ECB, IMF are tightened for a week, means that we are not going to see sharp growth of EUR/USD within next few days. Some encouraging moment for euro also can be that recently the financial markets, in particular currency, have ceased to react to a stream of negative news from Europe that besides assumes some improvement of a situation with appetite to risk (positively for EUR/USD).

 

From good news it is necessary to notice messages that Fitch has confirmed a credit rating of Germany at level ААА on September, 21st.

 

Situation in USA seems not to be better then in Euro zone. Yesterday the IMF has lowered forecasts on world economy growth on 2011 and 2012 years on 0,3 % and 0,5 % accordingly to 4 % for both years.

 

Following the results of session - Dow Jones Industrial Average has raised on 7,65 points or 0,07 % to level in 11408,66, Standard and Poor's 500 has decreased for 2,00 points or 0,17 % to a level 1202,09, and Nasdaq Composite has left in a minus on 22,59 points or 0,86 % and has reached a point 2590,24.

 

Gold company Newmont Mining has jumped up on 5,5 % on the basis of comments of Richard O’Briens’ - he has declared that gold till the end of 2012 can go up in price to $2000 for ounce. The world markets recently brought to us so many surprises that it can quite appear a reality much earlier, isn't it?

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22.09.2011

 

Markets negative to

Bernankes’ “twist”

 

FED’s chief Bernanke’s financial “Operation Twist” combined with a bleak assessment of the global economy had an immediate negative effect on markets. The US exchanges fall steeply, followed by ASIA with Shanghai as the biggest looser plunging 4,1 %. Futures for Europe and US are down. Markets are expecting to see the lowest numbers since July 2010.

 

In his speech yesterday Bernanke painted a bleak picture of a stagnating global economy which runs a great risk of a double dip recession. FED introduced simultaneously “Operation Twist” to invest 400 billion USD into buying short term treasury bills and reinvest into longer term treasuries and bonds with between 6 and 30 years maturity.

 

The market answered by selling securities and commodities. Even gold plunged to 1775 and oil prices (NYMEX 85 and Brent 108) under strong pressure on the prospect of lower economic growth. USD is stronger against all currencies EURO/USD trading at 1.3450. The fall in banking shares are continuing world wide with downgrading of major European banks. New Greek austerity measures are met with a new wave of strikes and social unrest.

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23.09.2011

 

Full panic grips

global markets

 

Global markets experienced its worst falls since the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy in 2008.

Dow Jones fall 3,51 % to 10 733 after a miserable session in Europe. Statements from the World Bank

and IMF (International Monetary Fund) renewed fears for a double dip recession.

 

The steep falls continued in Asia. Oil and banking shares were hardest hit, and commodities followed

suit. Gold reached its lowest levels in week tumbling to 1736. Silver fell with 10%. Oil continued its slide. NYMEX

tipped below 80, but recovered to 81 in late Asia trading. Brent is 106.

 

USD normally regarded as a safe haven in crisis, gained against all currencies Wednesday, but corrected

somewhat during Asian trading. Euro/USD trading at 1.3525; 1 % up from bottom levels the day before in

expectation that the week-end G-20 meeting shall bring some relief for the Euro-zone and especially Greece.

 

Several commentators yesterday took a double dip recessions as a forgone conclusion and predicted the start

of a prolonged bear market. The market met slightly better US-unemployment figures with no movement and a sigh.

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27.09.2011

 

Orderly Greek default

rumors rally markets

 

Rumors on an orderly Greek default rallied market’s yesterday and through the night’s trading in Asia. Dow Jones jumped 2,53 % and Nasdaq 1,35 %. Asian exchanges likewise rallied. Commodities are up with Gold trading at 1648 up from Monday’s low on 1525. Silver which reached a bottom on 26.00 in early intra trade makes a daily jump on 20 % trading at 31,25. EURO/USD is at 1.3548 and USD/JPY 76,34. Australian dollar is up and regarded one of traders favorites in forthcoming weeks.

 

Greek Premier George Papandreou is heeding to Berlin this morning to convince reluctant German politicians and public that Greece is worthwhile supporting. This while the Greek Parliament is discussing the new proposed property tax. Leaked information from talks between European finance ministers injected some optimism in the markets yesterday. According to rumors foreign banks with credit exposure to Greece shall have to accept a back payment of only 50 %. To avoid a collapse in the banking system the European Central Bank’s emergency fund is to be strengthened to facilitate interbank credits.

 

Both stock, commodity and currency markets continue to be extremely volatile. Stock prices even in solid companies are jumping 10 – 15 % intra day. The same goes for commodities and currencies. This opens up for tremendous trading opportunities with big gains – and – losses within a short period of time. In such an environment fortunes could be created and – lost – within few hours. Traders need to bear this in mind. The volatility is expected to continue for the foreseeable future.

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28.09.2011

 

Short rally ends

in new volatility

 

After two days optimistic rally the markets in Asia were last night back to normal. Futures for Europe and US

are pointing down. Commodity prices are lower, and the EURO which got a boost following rumors on an

orderly Greek default, dropped back to Euro/USD 1.3559. USD/Yen is trading on 76,58. Oil is down 1,5 %

(NYMEX 93,50 and Brent 106,35)

 

September has been one of the worst months ever for commodities. Copper, zink and nickel have fallen steeply on

assumptions on lower economic growth, and even precious metals as gold, silver and palladium saw falls

between 10 and 20 %. There is no comfort for the metals that October traditionally is one of the worst

performing months for metals.

 

The rally over the last two days have been based on expectations and hope rather than fundamentals. the Merkel/

Papandreou meeting was marked by positive rhetoric, but Greece seems to heed closer to a default for each

passing day. New consumption and production figures coming from the US later today is not expected to

give the market any relief.

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29.09.2011

 

Greece again

sink markets

 

 

The Euro/USD is slightly up trading at 1.3661 this morning on expectations that Germany today shall ratify the next debt tranche to Greece. The upturn in Markets experienced over the last couple of days, came to a quick halt in Europe, US and Asia, on renewed fears for a Greek default and its consequences for the Euro and the world banking system.

 

Commodities continued its free fall with dramatic day trading eases in both precious metals and commodities. Oil price fell to NYMEX 79,50 and Brent 103. Silver fell more than 10 % from a Wednesday high on 32,50 down to 29 on intra trade in the US, recovering to 31 this morning.

 

The markets are extremely volatile with the smallest news and rumors creating havoc and big swings during daily trading. Till the Greek debt package has been ratified by national parliaments, the most important during this week, markets shall continue to be extremely volatile.

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30.09.2011

Better job numbers

lift US-markets

 

The number of jobless claims in the US fall from registered 423 000 to 391 000 during September, injecting some optimism at Wall Street last night. Wall Street rose with 1,21 %. Better forecasts for the US GDP added along with German ratification of the temporary crisis fund for the Euro-countries, EFSF, to a somewhat more positive market sentiment.

 

The Euro has stabilized on 1.3561 to USD after yesterday’s rally which saw 1.3628. USD/Yen is 76,56. Oil prices are slightly up with NYMEX 82 and Brent 104,42. Gold stabilizing on 1625. Markets in Asia are mixed with Shanghai trading at lowest numbers seen in 10 years after a dismal last quarter. Commodities continue to fall on negative growth aspects.

 

The German willingness to increase state guarantees for the European Stabilization Fund from 123 to 211 Billion Euros, is seen as

small step on a very long journey. The so called Troika is meeting in Athens to day to consider the effects of the Greek austerity measures. This amid new demonstrations and public frustrations.

 

30th September marks the end of a disastrous third quarter in markets with renewed fears of a double dip recession in the world economy along with an intensified sovereign debt crisis in Europe with questions as to the future of the EURO adding increased nervousness and uncertainty. The last couple of days have seen a certain market stability; that might be a token that we are in for a softer sailing at the last remaining months of the year?

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03.10.2011

Sell off

continues

 

 

Sell off of shares continued in Asia this morning with Hang Seng dropping 5, 4 %. The sell off came on top a dismal third quarter which saw stocks falling 25 %. October is traditionally one of the worst performing months in stock markets.

 

The Euro continues tits slide towards other currencies. EURO/USD trading at 1.3319. Oil prices (NYMEX 78 and Brent 101,85) are trading at lowest levels in one year. The sell off in Asia is due more to foreign investors taking profit and cutting losses elsewhere than weaker fundamentals. Industrial output in China is up in September. Gold is stabilizing on 1630. Silver is also up since last Friday.

 

Uncertainty continues to dominate in the EURO-markets. Obama added his worries stating that Eurozone debt crisis clouds the global horizon. EU finance Ministers meet in Luxembourg today amidst growing concern on Greece. No clear solution seems in sight with continued political bickering. The austerity measures are adding to the pain. The Greek GDP is expected to fall 5,5 % in 2011, much steeper than predicted.

 

From outside Greece seems on the brink of a social collapse. Demonstrators are crowding the streets, and a new general strike is announced for Tuesday.

 

Expect a new volatile week with continued opportunities for traders who read the rends correctly.

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04.10.2011

 

European debt crisis

spread global panic

 

 

October is living up to its reputation as the worst performing month in financial markets. Monday’s steep falls

in Asia were followed by Wall Street. Dow Jones dropped 2,4 % to 10 655 with the magic 10 000 limit in sight. Futures for Europe and USA are down after Asia fall for the consecutive day. Oil prices plunge with NYMEX tipping below

USD 76 and Brent fighting to stay beyond 100 barrel.

 

EURO/USD is at 1.3200. The EU-finance ministers failed to give any signals to calm markets after meeting in Luxembourg. This

has added to the pressure on the Euro. A Greek default is seem to be taken for granted. The visiting TROIKA (representative from the European Central Bank, IMF and EU-commission) has once again stated that Greek austerity measures are lagging behind. The final decision to release the next debt tranche to Greece is postponed to the 17th October meeting with heads of state.

 

In the meantime there is no money left in the Greek state coffers and the massive protests against the austerity measures and greedy bankers are continuing in the streets. Protests against bail outs and greedy bankers are not limited to Europe. Wall street witnessed over the week end that 700 protesters were arrested.

 

Big US banks as JP Morgan and Bank of America are as heavy debt loaded as its European counterparts. One of the few messages given by EU-ministers of finance, is that creditors must be prepared for taking increased Greek losses. Greek treasury bills are trading on 46 % of face value indicating creditor losses up to 50 %.

 

In an atmosphere of volatility and uncertainty Gold is springing back to life up to1671. Another precious metal, silver, is also been given a boost. Among the currencies British pound is under increased pressure GBP/USD at 1,5465.

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05.10.2011

 

Italian downgrade

adds to market fear

 

Moody’s downgrade of Italy has increased volatility prior to opening of markets in Europe. After steep falls Dow Jones and Nasdaq turned around during last hour’s trade and ended up 1,44 and 2,95 % respectively. The EURO/USD corrected down upon the news of the Italian downgrade from 1.3365 to 1.3305. The rally did not influence Asian traders. Hang Seng dropped new 3 %. One share is up for each three falling shares. Copper gained for the first time in six days, but is 35 % down from it’s peak in January.

 

Copper is though a sensible indicator on industrial activity and yesterday’s gain might signal that the bottom trend is starting to phase out. Most analysts do, however, agree that the worst is not yet been seen, and that markets still could fall another 10 – 15 %. A lot of wild speculation going on illustrated in Gold trading. Gold fluctuated between 1680 and 1605 during yesterday’s session opening the morning at 1630. Yen is steady towards USD at 76,665. Downward trend in GBP continues.

 

Italian SOVEREIGN debt was downgraded from A2 to AA2. Moody’s Investor Service is finding future perspectives for Italy negative with weak economic growth and problems and consequent problems in refinancing their debt. These are problems very similar to those facing Greece and other debt-stricken EU-countries. Before EU is coming up with a credible answer as to how to handle the sovereign debt problems market volatility is going to continue.

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07.10.2011

 

Europe's leading central banks

returned to crisis-fighting mode

 

On Thursday, on October, 6th, key stock markets of the European region, as well as U.S. market have finished the trading session in positive territory. Interest rates as it has been predicted were left at former level of 0,5 % and 1,5 % accordingly.

 

Investors have complacently apprehended news that the European central bank will support liquidity in bank system by carrying out of two long-term operations on refinancing in October and December. Besides, ECB will start the new program of the repayment of sovereign debt papers for the amount of 40 bil. Euro.

 

Following the results of the trading session " index Dow Jones Industrial Average has raised on 1,68 % and was closed on a level of 11123,30 points, the index of wide market S&P 500 has grown on 1,83 % to level 1164,97 points, and the index of hi-tech companies Nasdaq has risen on 1,88 % to a mark 2506,82 points.

 

The price for futures for oil of Light following the results of the auctions on NYMEX has raised on $2,91 or 3,52 % to level of $82,59 for barrel.

 

The price for futures for gold following the results of the auctions on COMEX has raised on $11,60 or 0,7 % to value to $1653,20 for ounce.

 

On Friday all attention will be chained to the data on a labor market of the USA - to a rate of unemployment and employment in nonagricultural sector. This news will affect the further dynamics of the market and in a case of negative results – we can see new minimums.

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10.10.2011

 

Bulls successively

keep leadership

On Friday, on October, 7th, the basic share indicators of the European region have shown mainly growth, having continued a positive tendency of previous days. Investors were satisfied with a positive data from the USA on a labor market, in particular, employment growth in nonagricultural sector in September has increased on 103 000 after increase on 57 000 month before.

 

Following the results of the session the indicator of "blue chips" index Dow Jones Industrial Average was closed on a mark of 11103,12 points, the index of wide market S&P 500 on a level of 1155,46 points.

 

Quotations of “black gold” this morning moderately rise: North Sea oil costs $104.33 for barrel, the future for oil of mark LIGHT - $83.77 for barrel.

 

Both futures for indexes of the USA, and futures for oil are up 1,5 %. Results of a meeting of the federal chancellor of Germany of Angela Merkel and the president of France Nicolas Sarkozy who agreed about working out of the plan of the decision of debt problems of the countries of an euro area (obviously to settle problems of Greece) became a driver for the opening of session. Leaders of Germany and France promised to develop the new plan before summit G20 which will be in the beginning of November, and, it means, that till the end of October there can be encouraging news regarding decision of debt problems.

 

Today is a holiday in the USA – Columbus Day - in this connection volatility will decrease together with volumes of the trades. Day of Columbus foretells quiet session.

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11.10.2011

 

Strong rally

continues

 

End of last week’s market rally continued on Monday with Dow Jones up 2,97 % and Nasdaq jumping 3,50 %. China Investments Corp has bought stocks in four major banks, creating increased confidence in the Chinese banking sector and initiating a strong rally.

 

These steps contributed to the positive market sentiment in Asia. Chinese bank skyrocketed 8 – 10 %. Hang Seng jumped 3,5 %. Asian stock exchanges rose for the fourth consecutive day experiencing their best four day period since 2009 with an increase of 5,9 %. Toki which was closed on Monday saw Nikkei jumping 2 %.

 

Statements from Merkel and Sarkozy have likewise been positively received. The leading Western European powers seem willing to transfer necessary funds to a new European emergency unit for sovereign debt and recapitalization of major banks.

 

Gold continues up 1679 while other commodities like copper are slightly down. Euro/USD is trading at 1.3640 and USD/Yen at 76,685.

Exchanges in Europe are expected to open slightly up after rallies in US and Asia.

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12.10.2011

 

Increased volatility

after Slovakia’s NO

 

 

Tiny Slovakia’s no to bail out for Greece has along with the Senate’s rejection of Obama’s plan for increased jobs, sent new shivers into financial markets questioning economic growth prospects and EURO stability. The giant aluminium producer ALCOA’s disappointing quarterly results injected a new dose of realism into volatile markets. Both Dow Jones and Asian markets ended down after a four day rally.

 

The falls in Asia were, however, less than expected due to news on better prices for shipping services. The Chinese Banks continue to rocket after the state investment fund yesterday bought heavily into four ailing banks. The Agricultural Bank of China is up 12 % this morning. Many investors are asking whether Chinese stocks have fallen, too, heavily and are underpriced.

 

The Slovakian parliament rejected the proposed changes in the European emergency fund involving major banks and sovereign states. A new government has is in the making. There are, however, certain optimism that the proposed package shall pass Parliament later this week. In the US President Obama has suffered a new defeat on his proposal for increased jobs.

 

EURO/USD is remarkably stabile at 1.3632 taken the Slovakian NO into consideration. USD/Yen is 76,715. Oil prices which have increased for one week is slightly lower this morning. NYMEX on 85,50 level and Brent 110 – 111, 10 dollars up from lowest levels a week ago. Gold is steady at 1666.

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13.10.2011

 

Stagnating Chinese

trade in September

 

 

The Chinese trading figures for September came in weaker than expected. The trade balance show a surplus on 14,51 Billion USD,

1.8 B USD less than the forecasts with weaker export and import numbers. Inflation is still running high on 6 %. The somewhat disappointing numbers had, however, no influence on Asian stock markets that continued to rally for the 6th consecutive day. The Japanese Nikkei is up more than 1 % after a new strong day for the US-exchanges. DOW is up 0,90 % and Nasdaq 0,84 %.

 

Copper and oil prices are slightly weaker in the morning trade with Brent 111, 17. South Korean and Australian currencies are stronger, and the EURO continue to climb against the USD at 1.3796 after reaching 1.3825 in early morning trade. The stronger Euro and the continued stock rally reflects investors belief that the EU-countries shall take quick and decisive action to recapitalize struggling banks and to avoid the Greek debt crisis to contagion further and hit Spain and Italy.

 

The speech by EU-Commission President, Jose Barroso, yesterday was seen in this light and as a strong expression of European willingness to take strong action to save ailing Western European banks.

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14.10.2011

 

Spain is downgraded.

Added pressure on EU

 

The rating agency Standard and Poor has downgraded Spain on weak economic growth prospects. S & P sees zero growth for Spain in 2012 due to high unemployment and huge private credits. The downgrading has increased the pressure on EU-countries to recapitalize banks and solve the sovereign debt crisis in Europe. One hinder was overcome yesterday when Slovakia as finally ratified the the proposed emergency fund.

 

After a strong market rally over the last days investors are back on the fence. European markets fell. Dow Jones was down 0,35 % and most Asian markets ended in red. The Euro is stabile against USD at 1.3789, Japanese Yen is falling against the dollar trading at 76, 90. Brent oil is steady on the USD 111 level while NYMEX is down to 84,50 on increased oil storage numbers from the US.

 

Market futures give no clear indication on how the decisive US-markets shall open today. Analysts seem still to be optimistic as to a temporary solution to the problems within the Euro-zone. Spain’s downgrading is, however, a stark reminder that Greece is not a lonely sovereign problem. Portugal yesterday introduced new emergency matters to tackle it’s grave economic problems and Italy is on the verge of a new government crisis. The fear of a serious contagion is overwhelming. Investors have to be prepared for some dumpy weeks ahead.

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17.10.2011

 

EU receives one week

to get house in order

 

The Ministers of finance within the Group of 20, the strongest industrial countries in the world meeting in Paris during the weekend, have given the EU a week dead line to get their house in order. This has lifted the stock exchanges in Asia which continue to raise after seeing the strongest weekly rally in six months. The increases indicate strong belief that European leaders shall find a way out of it’s sovereign debt and looming bank crisis. Recent statements give raise to some optimism that a way out shall be found.

 

The MSCI Asia Pacifice, an index for the Asian stock exchanges, is up 1,7 % Monday morning. Five shares are up while one falling in price. Last week the index rose 3,4 %. The Japanese Nikkei is up 1,46 %. Australia jumps 1,66 along with a stronger Aussie dollar. The South Korean Kospi increases 1, 1 percentage.

 

The Euro/usd is stabile at 1,3842. Gold is trading at 1682, more or less the same level as seen last week. The US Congress has passed a resolution against China, threatening increased tariffs on Chinese import goods, and expressing strong dissatisfaction with the presumably low Chinese Huan. This in a situation whereby the USD has depreciated or lost in value against most world currencies. The strongest gainers against USD being Norway and Indonesia which see their currencies strengthened 6,92 % against the dollar. This trend towards a weaker USD is seen to continue for the nearest months.

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18.10.2011

 

Germany sinks hopes

of an early recovery

 

More careful statements from German leaders on the sovereign debt crisis along with GDP numbers from China indicating somewhat slower economic growth sent world markets in red yesterday wiping out most profits gained over the last ten trading days. Both Dow Jones and Nasdaq in USA fell with 2 percentages. The Shanghai composite, Hang Seng, dropped 3,4 %.

 

Last quarterly figures for China indicate continued strong growth with a GDP growth of 9,1 %. This is somewhat slower than market expectations and represent an eight consecutive quarter fall in GDP. Industrial production is, however, up with export and housing numbers stagnating. The overall picture of Chinese economy is positive, and the steep falls in Asia this morning may be seen as an overreaction more reflecting the continued nervousness surrounding the European debt crisis.

 

The spokesman of Angela Merkel yesterday plaid down unrealistic market expectations as to a quick fix to the European debt crisis after the G-21 meeting. His statement that ‘these problems have been with us for the last two years, and they are not going to whither away over night”, immediately turned market around. The EUro/Usd fall steeply from a month high. It has recovered somewhat in early trade today at 1.3772. Oil prices are down; Brent 110 and Nymex 84.

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19.10.2011

 

Markets rally on

EU-solution rumors

 

After a dismal start on the trading week, rumors on a French-German agreement on increasing the emergency fund for sovereign debt and bank recapitalization to 2 Trillion Euros, spurred a strong world market rally initiated in US where Dow rose 1,58 and Nasdaq 1,63 %. Asian markets jump, and European futures are pointing up. US futures are down on disappointing quarterly results also from Apple. Finance and banking shares have recovered. Bank of America is up 7 %.

 

The rumors from Europe has led to a strong rebound in the EURO. Euro/USD trading at 1.3812. Oil prices are up; NYMEX at 88 and Brent on 111 levels. Greece is facing a Parliamentarian vote on continued austerity measures on Thursday. All Greece is on strike. Premier Papandreou is seeing the vote as decisive to avoid default. Moodys has downgraded Spain credit rating. This does not, however, place Spain on the same credit standing as Greece, Europe and Portugal.

 

In spite of some renewed market optimism, Angela Merkel yesterday repeated that the European credit crisis is deep rooted and shall be with the markets for a long time to come.

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20.10.2011

 

Markets down on

internal EU-quarrels

 

Last hours disagreements between France and Germany on the role of the proposed new emergency bail out fund, have created new fears and dispair in global markets. Markets are back in deep red in US and Asia and futures for Europe and opening in US are pointing down threatening to wipe out gains over the last weeks.

 

The Euro is falling along with oil (NYMEX 86 and Brent 108) and commodity prices. Copper prices, one of the best indicators of economic growth, are falling for the seventh consecutive day. Even safe haven gold, is falling 65 dollar from from 1675 at the start of the week to present 1610. The US Federal reserve, FED, indicated yesterday that the US economy is showing slow, but steady progress with no turn around in either employment or housing. This careful statement, however, boosted the strength of the dollar.

 

An emergency meeting in Frankfurt yesterday evening between Merkel and Sarkozy ended in no results or statements with mixed signals coming from the countries top officials prior to the crucial EU-summit on Sunday both to the functioning of the emergency fund and the “hair cut” for Greece. As a prelude demonstrators came out in great numbers and changed central Athens into somewhat of a war zone, while Parliament discussed new austerity measures. Inside the EU it still seems to be disagreements as to whether the “hair cut” shall be as big as 50 %.

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21.10.2011

 

Nervous markets wait

outcome of EU-summit

 

 

Global markets experienced big volatility with steep fall and rebound in currencies and commodities

during yesterday. No clear direction I the stock markets in sight. . Headlines and rumors continued to rule

the day. Dow turned around midways into the session. After seeing steep losses it ended up 0,32 %.

Euro/USD went between 1.36 and 1.38 reflecting more or less substantiated leaks from German –

French negotiations, at present trading higher at 1.3803.

 

Oil prices are stabilizing with NYMEX on 86,50 and Brent 111.69. News on Khadafi’s death have not

seriously influenced prices. Gold is up at 1629 after it saw bottom levels on 1605. USD/Yen is flat on

76,755. Forecasts see a strong Yen on Euro volatility and USD weakness over the next couple of weeks.

 

The Papandreou-government survived a critical vote in the Greek Parliament over the individual part of the

austerity measures while street demonstrations saw it’s first death toll. Negotiations on the final

package to be voted on EU-summit on Sunday continue. Last rumors tell about an emergency fund for

sovereign debt and recapitalization on banks of 1 Billion Euro. Whether the final “hair cut” for Greece

shall end on 50 or 60 % seems still left open.

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24.10.2011

 

Negotiations of the European leaders

keep investors in suspense

 

At EU summit in Brussel which first stage has passed on October, 23rd, leaders of the European countries have depicted an overall picture of the program of rescue of region. In particular potential measures on support of banks have been planned and questions of increase in a role of IMF in a question of rendering assistance to region were mentioned. Last decision will be taken on Wednesday, on October, 26th.

 

Indexes grew last week and today we also expect positive opening because all investors live in hope that the European regulators will take measures in the decision of debt crisis. Positive reporting of some companies also have supported purchasing moods. According to WSJ, quarter results about 70 % of the reported companies have surpassed expectations of analysts.

 

Following the results of the trading session the indicator of "blue chips" index Dow Jones Industrial Average has raised on 2,31 % and was closed on a level of 11808,79 points, an index of wide market S&P 500 has risen on 1,88 % to level 1238,25 points, and the index of hi-tech companies Nasdaq has raised on 1,49 % to a level 2637,46 points.

 

The prices for oil and gold also show an ascending trend. NYMEX is on 88,54 and Brent 110.76. Gold is up at 1652.28.

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25.10.2011

 

The fourth week of October:

European summit in focus

 

On Monday, on October, 24th, American indexes were closed with an increase. Corporate reporting and increasing oil prices have supported purchasing moods. At the same time, market growth limits the European factor. Despite some progress at the summit, regulators can't come to the consent on some questions, as for example, what share of losses will be incurred by private creditors on the Greek debt. Investors hope for a positive outcome of the second summit on Wednesday, but at the same time while some uncertainty remains, investors are careful, and we can see rather low volumes.

 

Following the results of the trading session the indicator of "blue chips" index Dow Jones Industrial Average has raised on 0,89 % and was closed on a level of 11913,62 points, an index of wide market S&P 500 has risen on 1,29 % to level 1254,19 points, and Nasdaq has reached on 2,35 % to a level 2699,44 points.

 

The price for futures for oil of mark Light has raised on $3,87 or 4,4 % to level of $91,27 for barrel. Oil reached its maximum since 3rd of August.

 

The price for futures for gold with delivery in December has raised on $16,20 or 1 % to value of $1652,30 for ounce. Gold has risen due to the fact that dollar is weakening towards all other reserve currencies.

 

Today trading session can be affected by the statistics from USA.

[uwcfxcom]

26.10.2011

 

Nervous markets wait

outcome of EU-summit

 

Leading western indexes have decreased yesterday because of the published weak macroeconomic statistics. As well as the concern of investors that the anti-recessionary plan is not going to be accepted after it became known that the meeting of Ministers of Finance of the European Union countries, planned for October, 26th, is cancelled.

 

No clear direction in the stock markets in sight. As a result the American market has finished Tuesday’s trading session with fall of leading indexes on 1,7-2,3 %, due to the negative data of macroeconomic statistics and some weak reports of the companies. Dow reached level of 11706.62 with a decrease of 1.73%, S&P 500 was closed on a level of 1229.05 points with a decrease of more than 2%.

 

The extremely disturbing, yesterday has appeared the data on an index of consumer confidence to economy of the USA which in October has fallen to the minimum level for last 2,5 years, practically having reached crisis levels of 2008. From 10 indexes of sectors of the wide market of the USA yesterday have decreased all 10, and the financial sector which index has lost 3,1 % became the outsider.

 

Nevertheless, futures for share indexes of the USA this morning add 0,4-0,5 %, Brent continues movement below $112, increase above the given level assumes further growth.

 

Negotiations on the final plan seem still left open.

[uwcfxcom]

28.10.2011

Strong relief rally

continues in Asia

 

Global markets skyrocketed in Europe and US yesterday and continued in Asia during the night with all exchanges

in positive territory. Yen is record strong against the USD which is falling against all major currencies. Dow Jones jumped 2,86 % while the technology exchange, Nasdaq added 3,2 % and made October the best stock exchange month in US this year.

 

Better GDP figures from the US contributed ton the market relief after the EU presented its its package for Greece Wednesday night. The package involves a 50 % “haircut” of 50 % for banks having invested in Greek bonds

preconditioned that Greece follows up with continued tough austerity measures.

 

The exposed banks are asked to recapitalize, and need to present their plans for such recapitalization by December 25th. The EU emergency fund (EFSF) for sovereign debts and bankruptcy threatened banks are increased

to one trillion Euros. Negotiations have started with countries as China and Norway to contribute to the fund which represents the double value of the present Norwegian sovereign oil fund.

 

The latest turn of events have most observers to think that the worst in the stock markets are over for now and that the low index numbers from early October represented the bottom of the market. As a consequence of the latest developments USD has fallen against most currencies; oil and commodities are recovering. Euro/USD i s at 1.4181.USD/Yen trading at 75,88. Brent reached 112,50 and is at present 111,85. Gold has climbed to 1745 and Silver has made a strong recovery reaching 35,50 up more than 5 %.