My price-action strategy

[fxfxfx]

Hi alright.

 

OK - so let's summarize:

H4-Trend is: UP

DAILY-Trend is: UP

 

I would say: Both are "aligned" ;)

 

Next question:

Once Price breaks the last high of the swing high of the 4-hourly, where do you think price will so (or better price will stop) ?

Hint: Get your 4-hourly-chart and draw horizontal lines at the tops and bottoms of the swings ;)

 

Cheers

 

fxfxfx

 

Here my next homework. On the daily, the latest high is broken, so trend UP

http://img37.imageshack.us/img37/9494/201106071000.png

[crips]

at the moment on EU D1 "in a short term so to speak" we are in a up trend but... the price have not yet broke the high of the visible chart so I would be careful with that.

 

Regards

 

Crips

[alright]

 

One question alright: Where do you think price will go once price closed above the last swing-high-level ?

Likely up to the level I marked with the yellow arrow?

 

http://img687.imageshack.us/img687/4054/201106071013.png

[fxfxfx]

Hi alright,

 

This is really 1A :)

 

I hope you get now a little bit of feeling how the market moves and where the market can/will "potentially" stall or eventually reverse ?

 

Good job and: Well done !

 

Cheers

 

fxfxfx

 

Likely up to the level I marked with the yellow arrow?

 

http://img687.imageshack.us/img687/4054/201106071013.png

[fxfxfx]

Hi crisp,

 

As soon as the price does not stop to make higher highs or close below the last start-point of the upward-swing - we are in an uptrend.

 

So summarize:

EU 4-hourly: UPTREND

EU Daily: UPTREND

So I would say that both are "aligned" and it should be save to look for BUY opportunities ;)

Look at the 4-hourly chart: Price broke the last high and made a new high (Actual candle) -> What will price probably do ? It will retrace probably again to the LAST high and then will bounce at this level to continue its upward-move.

Last high: 1.4656

Short question crips: Where do YOU think that price will go (or better: where would price probably stall or reverse) ? Look at the 4-hourly ;)

Cheers

 

fxfxfx

 

at the moment on EU D1 "in a short term so to speak" we are in a up trend but... the price have not yet broke the high of the visible chart so I would be careful with that.

 

Regards

 

Crips

[fxfxfx]

Hi grooter,

 

Actually the daily is in a down-trend -> Although is looks strange, I would suggest to color the last swings also "Aqua or so" as price made a higher high but did not close above the high before (Some king of fake-breakout). Price-action looks a little bit strange, but I would say: As soon as price does not exceed the last high we are in a down-trend.

To summarize:

Daily: down

4-hourly: down

We are prepared to look for SHORT-opportunities (although I would wait until price would break significantly the lowest blue line at your chart as (you recognized it correctly) this represents strong support.

 

Question: Once price will break the lowest blue line of your charts -> Where do you think price will go (stall or reverse) ?

 

Thx

 

fxfxfx

 

GJ D1. Looks like a range, per your definition I should say uptrend? So H4 down, D1 up.

 

Since we have a bottom with so many lines, there would be quite some support here.

 

http://i56.tinypic.com/f2iw6c.gif

Edited June 7, 2011 by fxfxfx

[fxfxfx]

Hi guys,

 

If you have any question(s) about my comments: Feel free to ask me...

 

Cheers

 

fxfxfx

[⭐ izogrey]

I come up with my version about UC ( I choose UC because I didn't managed to trade this consistently, for a long time, ever in my life ):

 

daily trend : UP

 

http://img193.imageshack.us/img193/6864/ucd1trend.jpg

 

h4 trend :UP ( even if it's close to change )

 

http://img146.imageshack.us/img146/2354/uch4levels.jpg

 

So, they are aligned. If the price will close above "Breakout level", it will encounter the red "Resistance area", and IF it will close above that area, it will probably go to "First stop". After that ? I don't know, we will see when we will be there ....

 

But if the price will close below "Change of trend", what then ? Daily and h4 trends aren't aligned anymore. I expect, in that case, that the price will go to the next line downward on H4 chart, but which is the probability of my expectation, given the UP daily trend ?

[fxfxfx]

Hi folks,

 

One last homework:

 

Take a break - sit down and think a little bit:

Are you able to do these 2 lessons on a regular basis ?

Do I see the market a little bit "clearer" now ?

 

If you answer yourself both questions with YES - then continue with the thread and let me know it.

If both answers are NO - then you are free to leave the thread and use any kind of EAs or indicators which will do the work for you -> but be warned: In the long run you probably won't see much success :( In the best case you will probably end at breakeven.

 

Cheers

 

fxfxfx

Edited June 7, 2011 by fxfxfx

[fxfxfx]

Hi izogrey,

 

1A :)

 

Quick question: How long did it take (after you draw all the lines) to make your analysis ?

 

If both trends are not aligned I usually wait until they are aligned ;) *g* -> Hope you got the idea behind it :))

 

Hope that I could have helped you all to see the market a little bit clearer.

 

One short side note: These techniques can be applied to ANY tradeable stuff (commodities, currencies, indices, stocks,...)

 

So - all in all you are all now analysts who can analyze the market within a very short time-period.

 

Cheers

 

fxfxfx

 

I come up with my version about UC ( I choose UC because I didn't managed to trade this consistently, for a long time, ever in my life ):

 

daily trend : UP

 

http://img193.imageshack.us/img193/6864/ucd1trend.jpg

 

h4 trend :UP ( even if it's close to change )

 

http://img146.imageshack.us/img146/2354/uch4levels.jpg

 

So, they are aligned. If the price will close above "Breakout level", it will encounter the red "Resistance area", and IF it will close above that area, it will probably go to "First stop". After that ? I don't know, we will see when we will be there ....

 

But if the price will close below "Change of trend", what then ? Daily and h4 trends aren't aligned anymore. I expect, in that case, that the price will go to the next line downward on H4 chart, but which is the probability of my expectation, given the UP daily trend ?

[⭐ izogrey]

Hi folks,

 

One last homework:

 

Take a break - sit down and think a little bit:

Are you able to do these 2 lessons on a regular basis ?

Do I see the market a little bit "clearer" now ?

 

If you answer yourself both questions with YES - then continue with the thread and let me know it.

If both answers are NO - then you are free to leave the thread and use any king of EAs or indicators which will do the work for you -> but be warned: In the long run you probably won't see much success :( In the best case you will probably end at breakeven.

 

Cheers

 

fxfxfx

 

 

 

I'm just fine with the both questions, so ... let's go on forward.

 

After I draw all the lines, the analysis appeared in my eyes in some one or two seconds. It took me way much longer to draw the lines and text than to analyse. :-)

 

Well, it seems that I choose UC pair in order to learn how to wait ... But if I can trade UC consistently for ... let's say three months, then it's good to learn how to wait ! :-)

[fxfxfx]

Hi izogrey,

 

One short side-note:

If price will close above your breakout-level, I would target the high of the last swing high (which is in your case the big BULLISH candle) -> Why: I will explain this later...

 

I come up with my version about UC ( I choose UC because I didn't managed to trade this consistently, for a long time, ever in my life ):

 

daily trend : UP

 

http://img193.imageshack.us/img193/6864/ucd1trend.jpg

 

h4 trend :UP ( even if it's close to change )

 

http://img146.imageshack.us/img146/2354/uch4levels.jpg

 

So, they are aligned. If the price will close above "Breakout level", it will encounter the red "Resistance area", and IF it will close above that area, it will probably go to "First stop". After that ? I don't know, we will see when we will be there ....

 

But if the price will close below "Change of trend", what then ? Daily and h4 trends aren't aligned anymore. I expect, in that case, that the price will go to the next line downward on H4 chart, but which is the probability of my expectation, given the UP daily trend ?

[fxfxfx]

Hi izogrey,

 

Please consider that you draw the lines initially (which will take time -> OK you are totally right), but to update them takes only a few seconds ;)

the 4-hourly probably once or twice per day....

 

I suggest to draw the 4 hourly once a week completely new.

 

Cheers

 

fxfxfx

 

I'm just fine with the both questions, so ... let's go on forward.

 

After I draw all the lines, the analysis appeared in my eyes in some one or two seconds. It took me way much longer to draw the lines and text than to analyse. :-)

 

Well, it seems that I choose UC pair in order to learn how to wait ... But if I can trade UC consistently for ... let's say three months, then it's good to learn how to wait ! :-)

[grooter]

Question: Once price will break the lowest blue line of your charts -> Where do you think price will go (stall or reverse) ?

 

I would say down is the way to go. If it breaks that many levels there should be a lot of downwards momentum.

 

PS: so you say the downtrend would be broken in case it closes again above the 3rd blue line from the top? If I look at the chart from a distance I can see you are absolutely right, daily = GJ down

[harry007]

was outside, so I'm late

 

here my e/u Daily Charts

 

http://clip2net.com/s/Z0eT

 

http://clip2net.com/s/Z0eT

 

so the Daily confirm the up Trend at the H4 Chart

Edited June 7, 2011 by harry007

[crips]

 

Short question crips: Where do YOU think that price will go (or better: where would price probably stall or reverse) ? Look at the 4-hourly ;)

Cheers

 

fxfxfx

 

well I would say that next big obstacle in our way to new hights is the 1.4930 area were the last high is on 4H chart and it is also the high on D1 which should be broken to move further up.

 

Regards

 

Crips

 

PS!! "yes" is the answere to those 2 questions.

[fxfxfx]

Hi grooter,

 

Yes - when price CLOSES above the 3rd blue line from the top at latest -> But what can also happen is that price retrace upwards (but do not close above the last swing high) then retraces again downwards and makes a HIGHER low and finally retraces again and closes above the high of the HIGHER low - Whichever comes first.

 

OK - this is hard to describe... So here a pic:

 

http://img811.imageshack.us/img811/2075/gbpjpy.gif

 

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

 

I would say down is the way to go. If it breaks that many levels there should be a lot of downwards momentum.

 

PS: so you say the downtrend would be broken in case it closes again above the 3rd blue line from the top? If I look at the chart from a distance I can see you are absolutely right, daily = GJ down

Edited June 7, 2011 by fxfxfx

[fxfxfx]

Hi crips,

 

For entry I usually use strong S/R lines - for "potential" turning-points I use every single S/R - Line.

Which is the closest S/R line above the act. price ;)

 

btw: Good work :)

How long did you need for your analysis ?

 

Cheers

 

fxfxfx

 

well I would say that next big obstacle in our way to new hights is the 1.4930 area were the last high is on 4H chart and it is also the high on D1 which should be broken to move further up.

 

Regards

 

Crips

 

PS!! "yes" is the answere to those 2 questions.

[crips]

Hi crips,

 

For entry I usually use strong S/R lines - for "potential" turning-points I use every single S/R - Line.

Which is the closest S/R line above the act. price ;)

 

btw: Good work :)

How long did you need for your analysis ?

 

Cheers

 

fxfxfx

Maybe couple of minutes not longer.

What do you consider as a strong S/R lines?

 

Regards

 

Crips

Edited June 7, 2011 by crips

[fxfxfx]

I compare the S/R with the human brain:

 

The human brain has:

A long-time-memory

and:

A short-time-memory

 

This means: the human brain knows very good what happened short time ago - but also what happened longer time ago and that got much attention to the brain -> the rest will be deleted ;)

 

Long-Time memory: Things that happened longer time ago - but got so much attention to you (maybe something happened more than 1 time) that you will remember it.

Short-Time memory: The things which happened short time ago. When in this short-time period happens something which seems to be very important for you -> Then it will find its way to the Long-Time-memory -> The rest will be deleted ;)

 

In terms of our chart:

Strong Support/Resistance -> Support/Resistance which happened in the last 2 major moves in the time-frame you trade and probably confluence with fib-retracement,... and so on -> And Trendlines which comes from higher time-frames.

Weak(er) Support/Resistance:

S/R-Lines which are not from the last few swings or so...

 

afaik the next S/R must be at about 1.4750 -> It should be the next blue line above the price at your 4-hourly-chart (at least I see the line at the PIC you uploaded) ;)

 

Hope this helps...

 

Cheers

 

fxfxfx

 

Maybe couple of minutes not longer.

What do you consider as a strong S/R lines?

 

Regards

 

Crips

Edited June 7, 2011 by fxfxfx

[crips]

Thank you for explanation.

 

Regards

 

Crips

[danyalati]

Am I late to the party? Hopefully there lots more fun to be had.

 

I really appreciate how fxfxfx gave us homework. Normally I would just read through the whole thing and expect myself to do the whole method after just reading it once. I likde the idea of exercises

 

OK, I chose USDJPY, first exercise is easy

http://i52.tinypic.com/1sk1oh.gif

 

Swing high and Swing Lows. Rignt now we are in a downtrend

http://i55.tinypic.com/29qfwgn.gif

 

I had trouble with this. Please If I am wrong please correct me. I say we are in a downtrend on daily.

http://i53.tinypic.com/2z8ud6v.gif

Edited June 8, 2011 by danyalati
image change

[fxfxfx]

Hi danyalati,

 

I can not see the pics :(

 

Cheers

 

fxfxfx

 

Am I late to the party? Hopefully there lots more fun to be had.

 

I really appreciate how fxfxfx gave us homework. Normally I would just read through the whole thing and expect myself to do the whole method after just reading it once. I likde the idea of exercises

 

OK, I chose USDJPY, first exercise is easy

http://www.mediafire.com/?ua4f2sv28fxkkqt

 

Swing high and Swing Lows. Rignt now we are in a downtrend

http://www.mediafire.com/?dmu6pdnvbvdqvll

 

I had trouble with this. Please If I am wrong please correct me. I say we are in a downtrend on daily.

http://www.mediafire.com/?tkpx3ipo5xitqqj

[danyalati]

I completed vol. 2 of YTC scalper, and so far i cannot see any similarity

Do you think your method complements YTC at all? Do you think it would be good idea to read all of YTC. I seem to be going in a circle, since most of the price action I was taught as basic market ideas 1.5 years ago, then I started searching for strategies, and now back to price action.

[fxfxfx]

Hi danyalati,

 

You will find price-action-elements in YTC - I think also in the earlier chapters afaik.

But: I do not trade the exact way he trades it as it does not suits to my lifestyle.

I trade a different way the he does -> But that does not matter as long as it is profitable;)

 

It is your choice to read it all ;)

 

Afaik it is really a lot to read the YTC-stuff ...

 

I do not know if it is clever to do both things as people may mix things up.

 

Maybe try this:

Read the YTC-Stuff and then my thread or vice-versa -> I hope you are not in a hurry to make money ;)

So it is up to you if you start to read YTC and then my thread or the other way or to do both at the same time ...

 

Cheers

 

fxfxfx

 

I completed vol. 2 of YTC scalper, and so far i cannot see any similarity

Do you think your method complements YTC at all? Do you think it would be good idea to read all of YTC. I seem to be going in a circle, since most of the price action I was taught as basic market ideas 1.5 years ago, then I started searching for strategies, and now back to price action.