Next bar predictions.

[juicyt]

Could anyone with coding skills take a look at the picture/formula and make an indicator that calculates and shows the calculations. This is an old formula for next day stock predictions but it looks alright on any chart. I would love to play around with it as I think it works basically on most high time frame charts reasonably accurate.

 

http://www.mediafire.com/i/?96etynd7k9ln0ym

 

Thanks

[MickyMouse]

There you go, still it is showing todays`s prediction....

 

http://www.mirrorcreator.com/files/0JUNSHP6/High_Low_prediction.mq4_links

[finex]

Could anyone with coding skills take a look at the picture/formula and make an indicator that calculates and shows the calculations. This is an old formula for next day stock predictions but it looks alright on any chart. I would love to play around with it as I think it works basically on most high time frame charts reasonably accurate.

 

http://www.mediafire.com/i/?96etynd7k9ln0ym

 

Thanks

 

Hello juicyt. Thank you for opening the thread. I looked at the calculation and tried to figure it out, but I have no idea. Is is possible to learn what is the logic behind the calculation? Many thank you.

Edited May 27, 2011 by finex

[MickyMouse]

The logic is in the first post in the image attached... I suppose the levels are very good risk/reward entry points. . . still the rules for defining which entry should we take.... i could code an ea that puts pending orders at those levels, but what tp...what sl.... and also trend definition.... need more info

[finex]

There you go, still it is showing todays`s prediction....

 

http://www.mirrorcreator.com/files/0JUNSHP6/High_Low_prediction.mq4_links

 

Hello MichyMouse: Thank you so much for the indicator. It looks great. I really appreciate that. I really want to spend more time playing with the indicator but I have no coding knowledge. Could you please add three more options?

 

First one is time adjustment. Unlike stock market, FX runs for 24 hours. So, is it possible to input the open and close time by the user?

 

Second options is something about back testing. I would like to see how the calculation works for the previous day, previous 2 days, previous 3 days, and so on. I would be nice if the user can input number of days that the indicator paint.

 

Third one is for someone who just wants a clean chart. Right now the indicator paints two long long lines. I don't know how to explain it... lol Anyway, it would be great if the line's start time is the previous day's close time.

 

If it is difficult to add all the above options in one indicator, you can make three more indicators. Many many thank you in advance.

Edited May 27, 2011 by finex

[finex]

The logic is in the first post in the image attached... I suppose the levels are very good risk/reward entry points. . . still the rules for defining which entry should we take.... i could code an ea that puts pending orders at those levels, but what tp...what sl.... and also trend definition.... need more info

 

haha... That's right. The logic is in the image if you can read and understand the meaning of formula. Sorry for my poor english. I just wanted to hear a story how the formula was made. I think I need more info just like you. Thank you.

[⭐ megashop]

The logic is in the first post in the image attached... I suppose the levels are very good risk/reward entry points. . . still the rules for defining which entry should we take.... i could code an ea that puts pending orders at those levels, but what tp...what sl.... and also trend definition.... need more info

 

i think it should be nice if we combine this prediction with daily inside bar strategy and make this level as TP point.

[MickyMouse]

ok so here u have it with the possibility to back test....

 

for other time frames ....what other time frames?

 

http://www.mirrorcreator.com/files/Q7VLBC66/High_Low_prediction_Past_0.mq4_links

[rosijitosin]

NICE WORK JUICYT. i think i have the original version of the formula and the caution in applying it. by the author from Russia which i translated to English.

 

PREDICTION OF DAYTIME Price Range (DAILY RANGE PROJECTIONS)

In the early eighties I was regularly performed on television in the program of financial news before the opening of the trading day and announced forecasts of price ranges for different markets. The formula below is an improved version of the one I used to calculate the predicted values at the time. This - the fruit of many hours of research, its interpretation is extremely important to determine the short-term price movements.

My research has shown that tomorrow's price range is determined by the interrelation of the closing price of the current day and the opening price of the current day. Between these price points are three possible relations:

1. Today's closing price is less than today's opening price;

2. Today's closing price of today's more than the opening price;

3. Today's closing price is equal to today's opening price.

If you have the attitude 1, then I use the following formula to predict tomorrow's price range:

(The current maximum + minimum + present today's closing price today + minimum) / 2 = X

Projected tomorrow max = X - today at least

Projected at least tomorrow = X - currently a maximum

If you have the attitude 2, I somewhat alter the formula:

(The current maximum + minimum + today's closing price today + max) / 2 = X

Projected tomorrow max = X - today at least

Projected at least tomorrow = X - currently a maximum

If you have the relationship 3, then I make the following changes to the formula:

(The current maximum + minimum + today's closing price + today's closing price) / 2 = X

Projected tomorrow max = X - today at least

Projected at least tomorrow = X - currently a maximum

These values - the starting point for the analysis of price movements the next day. I recommend using these quantities as follows: if the opening price is within the projected price range, then the day trader should expect that resistance level would be to mark the projected maximum, and the level of support - to mark the projected minimum. But, more importantly, if the opening price is outside the projected price range (higher than the projected maximum or below the projected minimum), this means that there was a significant imbalance between supply and demand and short-term trend will continue in the direction of the breakout. In this case, trevdera playing on short-term changes in prices, there are two possibilities:

1. Ignore the projected price range of options for a given day;

2. Adjust the settings range by moving the projected value of the minimum price slightly below the projected maximum price (if there was a break up) or placing the value of the projected maximum slightly above the projected minimum (if there was a break down).

Practical application of this formula still gave enough good results, because it allows you to set realistic parameters for the subsequent evolution of prices of the day. Nevertheless, I can not guarantee that this formula will continue to work as effectively.

 

high-------maximum

low -------minimum

[juicyt]

Thanks everyone for the input, I just logged back on. I wrote this formula out of a book about 5yrs ago and played around with it very little. But when I did, it looked like an alright way of predicting the following bar. Obviously not 100% but not bad. I'll play around with it all (thanks for the indicator, I don't know how you programmers do it) and get back with some feedback asap.

 

Thanks

[finex]

ok so here u have it with the possibility to back test....

 

for other time frames ....what other time frames?

 

http://www.mirrorcreator.com/files/Q7VLBC66/High_Low_prediction_Past_0.mq4_links

 

 

Nice Job!! Thanks a lot. Now I have a better view to see how the formular works. It seems that the accuracy of the prediction is not good. Maybe I don't know how to read the prediction. lol...

 

No, it is not time frame. It is about time range, such as GMT 0 (open) to GMT 23:59 (close) or GMT 5 (open) to GMT 4:59 (close) . How about 8 hours prediction instead of whole 24 hours? What is the best time range do you think we should apply this prediction? I don't know and wanted to experiment. hmmm,,, can you make the indicator that allows the user to input the open and close time? Thank you.

Edited May 28, 2011 by finex

[finex]

NICE WORK JUICYT. i think i have the original version of the formula and the caution in applying it. by the author from Russia which i translated to English.

 

PREDICTION OF DAYTIME Price Range (DAILY RANGE PROJECTIONS)

In the early eighties I was regularly performed on television in the program of financial news before the opening of the trading day and announced forecasts of price ranges for different markets. The formula below is an improved version of the one I used to calculate the predicted values at the time. This - the fruit of many hours of research, its interpretation is extremely important to determine the short-term price movements.

My research has shown that tomorrow's price range is determined by the interrelation of the closing price of the current day and the opening price of the current day. Between these price points are three possible relations:

1. Today's closing price is less than today's opening price;

2. Today's closing price of today's more than the opening price;

3. Today's closing price is equal to today's opening price.

If you have the attitude 1, then I use the following formula to predict tomorrow's price range:

(The current maximum + minimum + present today's closing price today + minimum) / 2 = X

Projected tomorrow max = X - today at least

Projected at least tomorrow = X - currently a maximum

If you have the attitude 2, I somewhat alter the formula:

(The current maximum + minimum + today's closing price today + max) / 2 = X

Projected tomorrow max = X - today at least

Projected at least tomorrow = X - currently a maximum

If you have the relationship 3, then I make the following changes to the formula:

(The current maximum + minimum + today's closing price + today's closing price) / 2 = X

Projected tomorrow max = X - today at least

Projected at least tomorrow = X - currently a maximum

These values - the starting point for the analysis of price movements the next day. I recommend using these quantities as follows: if the opening price is within the projected price range, then the day trader should expect that resistance level would be to mark the projected maximum, and the level of support - to mark the projected minimum. But, more importantly, if the opening price is outside the projected price range (higher than the projected maximum or below the projected minimum), this means that there was a significant imbalance between supply and demand and short-term trend will continue in the direction of the breakout. In this case, trevdera playing on short-term changes in prices, there are two possibilities:

1. Ignore the projected price range of options for a given day;

2. Adjust the settings range by moving the projected value of the minimum price slightly below the projected maximum price (if there was a break up) or placing the value of the projected maximum slightly above the projected minimum (if there was a break down).

Practical application of this formula still gave enough good results, because it allows you to set realistic parameters for the subsequent evolution of prices of the day. Nevertheless, I can not guarantee that this formula will continue to work as effectively.

 

high-------maximum

low -------minimum

 

 

This is something that I was waiting for. Many thank you.

[rosijitosin]

i think this formula haD already be programmed. attached is is the programme software .OPEN---HIGH---LOW---CLOSE

http://www.mediafire.com/?da838a7d8jg3huu.

[rosijitosin]

this is a very close work to the formular above. this indicator i have used and works 70% with the software(candle prediction) above . the problem is that there is ambiguity with the programme software. i think if a programmer could work more on it, something good will happens. but i garantee 70% daily predition when both indicator and software are use together by average both result high and low. thanks

[rosijitosin]

this is a very close work to the formular above. this indicator i have used and works 70% with the software(candle prediction) above . the problem is that there is ambiguity with the programme software. i think if a programmer could work more on it, something good will happens. but i garantee 70% daily predition when both indicator and software are use together by average both result high and low. thanks

 

http://www.mediafire.com/?c4reaadyb9virb8

[MickyMouse]

ok, just woke up, will look into it and give you hour start and hour close.... still it would be somewhere later in the day...

[MickyMouse]

so basically, i have no idea how you guys get to a 70% hit ratio.... i coded a simple ea to buy when prediction is higher than yesterday`s prediction, and opposite for sell.... no tp, no sl ... looking on the daily the hit ratio on the majors is under 15% (15% took the aussie)... now looking on the weekly the hit increased to 31 % (as well max on the aussie)...so it just does`nt work.... for me anyway!!! now, i reversed the logic...hit rate reversed as well, but it is still loosing money.... losses are way higher than whatever profits it makes... i added a trailing stop...that made things even worst....so basically "For Me", i end up with better results by flipping a coin !!! So sorry guys but its just not worth my time... i could code ore chase a better idea ....

 

Still, just a tip .... It does seem to have that 70% hit on the gold ....

Also, since the logic was developed for stocks, it might work on stocks...... have no idea ....

If u have any other idea`s , glad to help in my spare time...but as it goes for this small project it`s a dead end for me.

 

 

For whoever want`s to see the projection based on other tf, just open the indy and modify 2 times PERIOD_D1 with PERIOD_W1 ore PERIOD_H4 ore whatever tf you think would make more sense.....

 

it does seem to work better if u put it on MN1 but thats just crazy

[juicyt]

Thanks for the efforts. I would never try and use this indicator as a buy here and sell there. I would use it for a guide to where the market might go, then trade lower time frame based on that. Basically if price bottomed out past the low or went near the projected low (on an uptrend) then look for long opportunities as it makes it's way up.. That is all I would do with it.

 

Now the problem I think I have found is the time of my broker to the time of the market, it seems to be out be some hrs so if that could be adjusted, it would be great. Also, I remember once trying it on 1hr charts and it seemed about the same hit miss ratio as daily (don't hold me to that) so I always thought it would be good to play around with one inside the other type of thing...

 

Thanks again

[juicyt]

Maybe my broker's time isn't off, because if I break the high and low area into 1/4's then those areas become very obvious support and resistance areas. See the picture to understand what I mean. Maybe this is a NEW way to plot sup/res... Sometimes it is right to the pip!

 

http://www.mediafire.com/i/?xaadlnwdo2m

 

Let me know what you think

[MickyMouse]

still i need new rules for what you are asking.... tell me what is the value of the high, low close and open ?

 

since you want a range, "start hour and end hour".... what will be the high?(the highest high ore the average high..... and so on, what will be the low....) .... and even more important there are 3 possibilities, close>open, close<open and close=open.... if i am to use a range, what close and what open should i use ....

[rosijitosin]

i think JUICYT has introduced an importance aspect of mathematical trading. if this area if properly tapped into, there is possibility for us to create indicator for standard ranges level. from my knowledge mathematical trading could deliver 80% trading success. the problem with this formular is ambiguity in it. let the programme look into it.

[juicyt]

Sorry Micky I don't really understand what you are asking. The details of the calculations are right there on that first pic I put up, after that, the only other inputs I could imagine would help if adjustable are the start and finish time of the candle the indicator is calculating the predictions for (Only if it is daily candle we are looking at as different brokers have different times for a daily chart) and the time frame we are using the prediction for. I might want to predict the next 15min candle for example.

And it may not be showing me because the market is closed, but, the indicator is used to predict the future move so the high and low should plot ahead of the market..

 

Thanks

[MickyMouse]

well for the formula u already posted , you already have an indicator.. do you want that indicator to work on current tf? there you go... still it will show you the prediction for the current bar!!!!

 

http://www.mirrorcreator.com/files/2E6YMWO9/High_Low_prediction_Past.mq4_links

http://www.mirrorcreator.com/files/0RFVFGMX/High_Low_prediction.mq4_links

 

this ones work on the tf you put them on .

[pardy]

still i need new rules for what you are asking.... tell me what is the value of the high, low close and open ?

 

since you want a range, "start hour and end hour".... what will be the high?(the highest high ore the average high..... and so on, what will be the low....) .... and even more important there are 3 possibilities, close>open, close<open and close=open.... if i am to use a range, what close and what open should i use ....

 

As an example, if you use say times 0700 to 1200, then the open would be the open price at 0700, the close would be close as at 1200, and the high/low would be the max high or low price within that period. On the 1 min tf, the 11.59 candle closes at 1200, on the 1 hr tf, the 1100 candle closes at 11.59 and will form a new candle at 1200. On the indi therefore, an easy way to do this might be to take the open price at 0700 and close price at 11.59 or even 1200, based on the broker platform, since you're not using tf based candles.

 

If based on tf candles, then on 4 hr and daily chart, there will be differences depending on the broker times.

Hope this helps.

Pardy

[MickyMouse]

http://www.multiupload.com/JMT9P2L0AK

 

here you have the calculation applied to the BreakOutPanca indy ... i do hope this helps.

Cheers

 

Put the offset to 1 , and whatever hour you want it to start and end the calculation....

Edited May 29, 2011 by MickyMouse
offset