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Correlation & differentiation


Guest indoshare

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Guest indoshare

Hi Guys,

 

Would someone list the currency pairs that very closely correlate or move together. and also currency pairs that move completely opposite directions.

 

please help me on this.

 

Thanks.

 

Indoshare

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Hi Guys,

 

This is the best info. I've seen concerning correlation with regard to trading crosses, thanks to a poster on another forum:

 

Example: GBPUSD candles moving up STRONG and USDCHF candles moving UP STRONG = GBPCHF moving up STRONG (Actually this means that the USD is getting weak against the GBP and at the same time the USD is getting strong against the CHF) Interpret: Candles on BOTH GBPUSD and USDCHF are moving up together strong = STRONG move up on GBPCHF (but, at almost 1.7:1 ratio!! GBPJPY doing this is almost a 2:1 ratio!)

The 9 Strength-Weakness Correlation positions:

1. GBP/USD Up and USD/CHF Up - Cross will move UP STRONG (Primary trade objective moves)

2. GBP/USD Down and USD/CHF Down - Cross will move DOWN STRONG (Primary trade objective moves)

3. GBP/USD Up and USD/CHF Down equally - Cross will REMAIN FLAT (Don’t trade these moves)

4. GBP/USD Down and USD/CHF Up equally - Cross will REMAIN FLAT (Don’t trade these moves)

5. GBP/USD Up and USD/CHF FLAT - Cross will move UP MODERATELY (Can bring decent profits)

6. GBP/USD FLAT and USD/CHF Up - Cross will move UP MODERATELY (Can bring decent profits)

7. GBP/USD Down and USD/CHF FLAT - Cross will move DOWN MODERATELY (Can bring decent profits)

8. GBP/USD FLAT and USD/CHF Down - Cross will move DOWN MODERATELY (Can bring decent profits)

9. GBP/USD FLAT and USD/CHF FLAT - Cross will remain FLAT (Market is undecided – leave alone)

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Hi soundfx. Can you remember where you found this info?

 

There are a couple of things that comes to my mind when reading this. First, we are talking about a triangular relation here where GBPUSD*USDCHF*(1/GBPCHF)=1 (+/- minor market imperfektions). This means we can calculate GBPCHF using GBPUSD and USDCHF where GBPCHF = GBPUSD*USDCHF. Consequently, any one-directional movement of GBPUSD/USDCHF is greater in GBPCHF.

 

But! This says nothing about the future movements. You can easily calculate the above but it still says nothing about whats to come. Simply put, you can not just watch GBPUSD/USDCHF move up and then simply take a GBPCHF long position. Well actually you can, but then its gambling :)

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askalas,

 

Google "The 9 Strength-Weakness Correlation positions" and you'll find the original on FF.

 

You're exactly right about the triangular relationship. However, if you can see that GBPUSD and USDCHF are strongly trending up - then rather than buying either of those pairs you're better off buying GBPCHF because it will move further.

 

There are no 100% solutions in trading. The edge that you get from trading GBPCHF in this case rather than the other two is that you get more pips quicker. How to decide whether the current trend is going to continue or not will rely on your normal trending indicators and strong support/resistance which is near and could cause the trend to reverse.

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  • 2 months later...

Gbp/usd lags eur/usd positive correlation

eur/usd lags usd/chf negative correlation

aud/usd lags nzd/usd positive correlation

eur/jpy lags usd/jpy positive correlation

gbp/jpy lags usd/jpy positive correlation

usd/cad lags aud/usd negative correlation

usd/cad lags nzd/usd negative correlation

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