News and Reviews European Economic Zone

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News and Review of European Economic Zone (UK)

 

UK Economy Will Grow in 2014 , Business Investment Rises Sharply

Tuesday, February 11, 2014

 

The UK economy is expected to grow 2.6 percent this year as it is supported by the unemployment rate of 7 percent or below the increase in business investment during the year 2013 . The projections reported by the Confederation of British Industry ( CBI ) as a leading business organization in the UK which is viewed from the perspective of a business group is still quite large economic expectations in line with the latest estimates from analysts .

 

In the survey report noted the growth of the UK economy moving towards a sustainable path and not based on the growth of debt , but by an increase in employment , income , and business investment .

 

These estimates suggest the economy will rise at a slow pace with the expected growth in GDP in 2014 of 2.4 percent and an unemployment rate that is more positive . Another important change is real income , consumer price inflation is expected to increase at an average rate of 1.9 percent in 2014 , compared with a previous estimate of 2.5 percent .

 

CBI saw economic growth in the right direction , the growth is not widely supported by the level of debt , but by the increase in business investment and trade . Meanwhile , the CBI estimates showed a sharp rise in business investment to 6.6 percent this year and 8.3 percent in 2015 from 3.7 percent decline in 2013 . However , this increase is still below 2007 which is about 9 percent .

 

For information , on September 18 , Scotland will hold a referendum to choose whether Scotland would be separated from the UK or not . However , British Prime Minister , David Cameron appears to have been prepared to lose Scotland by saying Britain would be reduced without Scotland . But it will not much affect investment in England and Scotland .

 

CBI will continue to monitor include the unemployment rate is now stepping 7 percent , according to estimates in the fourth quarter . Looking ahead , the CBI estimates that Britain 's central bank will announce several policy changes to support economic growth though the BOE still focus on increasing labor market

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News and Review of European Economic Zone (UK)

 

Increase Retail Sales , Sterling Gains

Tuesday, February 11, 2014

 

Sterling managed to strengthen against the dollar and was at the highest level one week after data showed UK retail sales accelerated in January , provide additional evidence of the UK's economic recovery is building momentum .

 

The British Retail Consortium said retail of Sales in January rose 3.9 % from a year earlier , after rising 0.4 % in January. The Bank of England is scheduled to release economic growth and inflation forecasts in the Inflation Report tomorrow kuartakan .

 

Meanwhile tonight 's new Chairman of the Federal Reserve , Janet Yellen , is scheduled to make a speech in front of the parliament first U.S. monetary policy . The market will be watching the speech to see the sustainability of the U.S. monetary stimulus program , which can be a significant driving force for the dollar .

 

GBPUSD is currently trading at around 1.6426 with daily lows and highs 1.6391 1.6432 .

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News and Review of European Economic Zone

 

Coeure : ECB ' Seriously ' Considering Negative Deposit Rate

Wednesday, February 12, 2014

 

European Central Bank really is considering options to reduce deposit rates into negative territory , according to a statement by a member of the executive board of the central bank on Wednesday .

 

" The effect of a negative deposit rate is something that we consider central to the very serious . However you do not need too much expects about it , " said Benoit Coeure , ECB executive board member , in an interview with Reuters .

 

Throughout the last few months the ECB officials continue to repeat the statement that the central bank still has room to act , to help stimulate the recovery of the fragile euro zone amid weak growth and slow inflation . Such actions may include the purchase of assets in the secondary market and the shift to the deposit facility rate into negative territory .

 

Enforcement of a negative deposit rate will force banks to choose to pay a fee for parking their funds in the ECB , or allocate excess liquidity to euro zone economy . But on the other hand , the policy option could also bring the risk that banks charge extra to their customers , which will make loans become more expensive .

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News and Review of European Economic Zone (UK)

 

BoE Raising UK GDP Projection Year 2014

Wednesday, February 12, 2014

 

The Bank of England on Wednesday raised its forecast for UK growth in 2014 to 3.4 % from 2.8% , reflecting stronger economic recovery and reduced uncertainty .

 

In its quarterly inflation report , the Bank of England said that the unemployment rate in the UK has plummeted much faster than expected . Which is likely to encourage the achievement threshold of 7% in the spring of this year . In August , the BoE has said he would continue to keep interest rates at a record low until the unemployment rate fell to a minimum of 7 % . So that a series of recent economic data continues to show improvement has spurred speculation about a rate hike this year .

 

While the press conference after the quarterly inflation report , BoE Governor Mark Carney said that interest rates will likely remain low until 2015 . Given before making adjustments to the interest rate the central bank should first consider a variety of indicators , including unemployment , business surveys and the number of hours worked , Carney added .

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News and Review of European Economic Zone (UK)

 

Carney Promise Lower Interest Rate Update BOE

Thursday, February 13, 2014

 

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney reiterated its pledge to keep interest rates at record lows in reshaping policy guidelines to deal with the economic slowdown in the UK.

 

"The first phase of the guidelines is to give business confidence that interest rates will be pushed up at least to the level of employment, income, and expenditures grow at a sustainable level," Carney said in London at the time he published the central bank's quarterly inflation report. "With the development of the guidelines, which is still going on is that" the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will not take risks with the recovery. "

 

BOE Rev growth forecast on Wednesday, prompting investors to bet Rev to a higher level as Carney tries to convince Britons that borrowing costs remained at the level of 0.5% for some time to come. Other central banks including the Federal Reserve also refrain from their policy guidelines as they try to secure a sustainable recovery for their economy.

 

BOE considers that the current unemployment rate down to 7% threshold as in the original guideline quarterly rate until January. In its inflation report, BoE officials also estimate that the difference in output of 1% to 1.5% of GDP as they give more details on factors that will influence their decision.

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News and Review of European Economic Zone (UK)

 

UK : Scotland Will Lose Pound If Exit From UK

Thursday, February 13, 2014

 

Britain warns Scotland on Thursday that the case can not continue to use Scottish pound if it voted for independence itself , the most decisive steps to date to prevent nationalist attempt to secede from the union England 307 years old . In the latest campaign to try to defend Scotland in the UK , George Osborne will try to play the Scots anxiety in losing pounds as a reason that the secession would put at risk the welfare of Scotland , sparked a storm of volatility .

 

" The pound is one of the oldest currency and successful in the world , " according to Osborne , Britain's finance minister and the people closest to Prime Minister David Cameron , who will say in a speech in Edinburgh , according to his office . " Perkeonomian UK grew faster than other developed countries in Europe . And in the UK , Scotland is growing faster than others , " Osborne will say in a speech that will begin 16:00 pm later .

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News and Review of European Economic Zone (Switzerland)

 

Swiss Production Sector Still Stagnant

Thursday, February 13, 2014

 

The movement of the Swiss franc in currency trading today ( February 13 ) showed a negative sentiment towards the currency, and looked weak bearish reviewed in the last two months on the pair USD / CAD .

 

Analyst Research Vibiz of Vibiz Consulting suggests that the analysis of today's BI rate Swiss franc moved lower observed around -0.38 % against the Euro currency in forex trading today , while the current data rate of BI ( sell) at a rate of Bank Indonesia is in the range of USD . 13499.11 / CHF and BI rate (buy ) around Rp . 13361.14 / CHF .

 

The negative sentiment against the Swiss Franc currency seems to increase after the Federal Statistical Office said that the performance of the manufacturing sector in Switzerland still showed the presence of stagnation .

 

The development is shown by the economic indicators PPI m / m 0.0 % which indicates the number of values ​​in the previous period is also 0.0 % . This information shows the better performance of the tub, some economists estimate , that estimate would drop to - 0.1 % . However, the Swiss franc moved lower against the Euro observed responding to these developments .

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News and Review of European Economic Zone

 

Economic Growth Reduce Pressure Euro Zone ECB

Friday, February 14, 2014

 

Eurozone economic growth in the final quarter of 2013 berekspanasi above analysts' estimates, menguarangi pressure on the European Central Bank to act to ward off inflation weak.

 

Eurozone gross domestic product in the fourth quarter of 2013 by 0.3% above economists' forecasts of 0.2%, and higher than the previous quarter when it grew 0.1%. While the quarter-to-four years earlier, the economy grew 1.1%.

 

President of the ECB, Mario Draghi, on February 6 said the ECB would take immediate policy in March after more data is available, to tackle inflation slowing.

 

Germany, which is the largest economy in the Eurozone led economic growth after growing 0.4% in the fourth quarter of 2013, while France is second with economic growth reached 0.3%. Economic growth in these countries above economists' estimates.

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News and Review of European Economic Zone

 

GDP Data Supports Strengthening Euro

Friday, February 14, 2014

 

After a sharp rally in trading yesterday , today the strengthening of the euro managed to maintain sustained by Eurozone economic growth data slick . Towards the strengthening of the euro is now two weeks in a row against the dollar .

 

Eurozone GDP in the fourth quarter of 2013 released by 0.3 % above economists' forecasts of 0.2 % , and higher than the previous quarter when it grew 0.1 % . While the quarter-to - four years earlier , the economy grew 1.1 % . Germany and France lead the economic growth in the region . While the Italian GDP is the country with the third largest economy in the Euro Zone berkespansi for the first time in 10 quarters. Italian economy adjusted for inflation grew 0.1 % in the period October-December 2013.

 

Germany , which is the largest economy in the Eurozone led economic growth after growing 0.4 % in the fourth quarter of 2013, while France is second with economic growth reached 0.3 % . Economic growth in these countries above economists' estimates .

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News and Review of European Economic Zone (UK)

 

Sterling Towards Best Week Since June 2012

Friday, February 14, 2014

 

Sterling to the best weekly gain against the dollar since June . This week sterling rose this week on optimism for a continuing economic recovery will make the Bank of England to raise interest rates .

 

BoE quarterly inflation report submitted Wednesday raised its forecast for UK economic growth in 2014 to 3.4 % from 2.8 % . While the unemployment rate limit of 7.0 % is expected to be reached in the spring of this year , and interest rates are expected to rise in 2015 .

 

While the dollar continues depressed due to poor retail sales data and weekly jobless claims . U.S. retail sales in January recorded a decrease of 0.4% from the previous month , economists previously provided estimates of retail sales were unchanged from December . For core retail sales , which excludes the automotive sector unchanged in January from December , while the estimate of economists to rise by 0.1 % . While the benefits claim pengangguranuntuk week ending February 8 rose as much as 8,000 to 339,000 compared with the previous week , above economists ' expectations of 331,000 .

 

Over the past year sterling rose 12 % and become the best performing currency among 10 developed countries , and is currently at its highest level since May 2011

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News and Review of European Economic Zone (Italy)

 

Renzi Trying to Arrange Italian Government

Tuesday, February 18, 2014

 

The next Prime Minister of Italy , Matteo Renzi , is still lobbying for some other party so that a coalition government can be prepared with a solid Italy . The Democratic party leaders have a mandate from President Napolitano to form a government . Renzi has uttered the program will include structural reforms of labor , taxation , electoral law within 100 days of the beginning of his reign . Renzi should manage to get support from the other party before he was confronted by the Italian parliament next week .

 

Democratic Party and its allies did have a majority in the House but not in the MPR . In order for the program to be implemented the policy Renzi Renzi must secure a majority in the House of Representatives and the Assembly . This means Renzi should lobby other political parties and government programs to achieve lasting . Market reaction so far is quite positive towards Renzi and is visible from the Italian government bond yields on the 10 -year fell to a low of 8 years yesterday . Moody was not even affected by the new Prime Minister to raise Italy's credit rating outlook from negative to stable .

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News and Review of European Economic Zone

 

Eurozone Current Account Down from Record High

Tuesday, February 18, 2014

 

Data from the European Central Bank Indicates Eurozone current account surplus down from record highs in late 2013. Current account, which shows the financial position of the international economy, in December fell to € 21.3 billion, from the previous month was revised down to € 23.3 billion. However, the surplus in December was above expectations at € 19.8 billion.

 

Merchandise trade surplus fell to € 14.9 billion in December, from € 18.7 billion in November. Service sector surplus fell to € 8.7 from the previous amount of € 9.4 billion.

 

Eurozone current account surplus during the year amounted to € 221.3 billion, compared with the year 2012 amounted to € 128.6 billion.

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News and Review of European Economic Zone (UK)

 

UK Inflation Slows in January

Tuesday, February 18, 2014

 

UK inflation unexpectedly slowed in January , for the first time below the target of 2.0 % of the Bank of England since November 2009 . Office for National Statistics reported annual inflation in January grew by 1.9 % , down from the previous month by 2.0 % , while economists expected January inflation remained at 2.0 % .

 

The report also mentioned the monthly inflation fell 0.6 % in January from the previous month , and the biggest drop since January 2009 . Core inflation fell to 1.6 % from 1.7 % , and the lowest level since June 2009 .

 

BoE expects inflation to remain close to the target set for the next three years . In the BoE quarterly inflation report also raised its 2014 economic growth forecast to 3.4 % from 2.8 % . limit of 7.0 % unemployment rate is expected to be reached in the spring of this year , the interest rate is expected to rise in 2015 .

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News and Review of European Economic Zone (UK)

 

UK Unemployment Rate Up in Fourth Quarter

Wednesday, February 19, 2014

 

Britain's unemployment rate unexpectedly rose in the fourth quarter and then , from the previous quarter , giving an overview of labor market improvement that occurred some time before starting to lose momentum .

 

Office for National Statistics said the unemployment rate as measured by the International Labour Organization methods rose to 7.2 % in the fourth quarter of last year , from 7.1% the previous quarter . The increase is the first since February last year , while economists expect the unemployment rate remained at 7.1 % . While jobless claims fell 27,600 claims in January , more than the estimate of 18,300 claims .

 

The Bank of England last week 's commitment not to raise interest rates for the unemployment rate is still above 7.0 % , after the UK economy grew faster than development policy guidance given in August . UK GDP in 2013 grew by 1.9 % , the fastest since 2007 .

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News and Review of European Economic Zone

 

ECB Not Worried By Inflation & Euro

Wednesday, February 19, 2014

 

ECB council member Ewald Nowotny , hinted not so concerned with low inflation in the euro zone and the strength of the current euro exchange rate . " Low inflation and the strength of the euro could have a correction naturally without the need for action from the European Central Bank , " said ECB 's Nowotny . The ECB will conduct its monetary policy meeting in early March and the meeting will be accompanied by ECB staff predictions over a wide range of economic indicators for the next few years . Economists expect the ECB staff aakn reports indicate inflation will remain below the 2% target . Euro - zone inflation was only 0.7 %, low enough to cause concern was the threat of deflation .

 

The strength of the euro exchange rate is one factor contributing to low inflation by making imports cheaper energy value . ECB 's Nowotny uttered euro exchange rate can make their own adjustments and do not require such extreme policy interventions . " I can imagine a situation where this year there will be a force that can push back the strengthening U.S. dollar , " said ECB 's Nowotny .

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News and Review of European Economic Zone (Germany)

 

German Economic Sentiment Drops in February

Wednesday, February 19, 2014

 

German economic sentiment in the coming months unexpectedly fell in February . German economic sentiment released ZEW expect the economy over the next few months fell to 55.7 in February , from 61.7 in the previous month , after touching its highest level in seven years sebesar62 , 0 in December . Figures in February is also far below estimates of 61.3 .

 

While sentiment on current economic conditions showed an increase to 50.0 , and the highest level since August 2011 . This figure is well above the estimate of 44.0 .

 

Economic expectations for the next few months in the euro zone fell to 68.5 , from 73.3 the previous month , and estimates an increase of 73.9 broke .

 

" The decline in economic eskpetasi this month should not be overstated , the majority of financial market experts still remain optimistic," said Clemens Fuest , ZEW President .

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News and Review of European Economic Zone

 

Manufacturing and service sector Eurozone Below Expectations

Thursday, February 20, 2014

 

Eurozone economic recovery shows signs of slowing this month , with the weakening of the manufacturing and services index . Eurozone manufacturing activity index in February was released at 53.0 down from 54.0 in the previous month and simultaneously break eskpetasi increase to 54.2 . While services activity index in February was 51.7 , up from 51.6 the previous month , but still below estimates of 51.9 .

 

German manufacturing activity index , the largest economy in Europe , fell to 54.7 from January's 56.5 , while services activity rose to 55.4 from 53.1 . While in France , both manufacturing and services activity index in February declined from the previous month .

 

The euro zone is expected to record growth for the full year in 2014 for the first time in three years , but the economic recovery is still at risk due to near-record levels of unemployment and inflation pressures are still weak .

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News and Review of European Economic Zone (UK)

 

Negative Sentiment Continues Shadowing Sterling

Thursday, February 20, 2014

 

Sterling weakened against the dollar resumed trading , to a decline in the four -day losing streak . The British currency started weakening earlier this week after a seven- day rally and touched the highest level in four years .

 

Slowing inflation in the UK to be the beginning of a negative sentiment for sterling this week . Office for National Statistics on Tuesday ( 02.18.14 ) and reported annual inflation in January grew by 1.9 % , down from the previous month by 2.0 % , while economists expected January inflation remained at 2.0 % .

 

Rising UK unemployment rate in the fourth quarter and further exacerbate sterling performance . The number of jobless claims England in January fell by 27 .600 better than the estimated decline of 18,300 . However, the data rate of unemployment in the fourth quarter rose to 7.2 % from the previous quarter of 7.1 % , while economists had expected the unemployment rate remained at 7.1 % .

 

Eskpetasi Bank of England will raise interest rates soon began damped , after reduction in inflationary pressures , as well as the unemployment rate back away from the BoE set limit of 7.0 % .

 

Meanwhile UK retail sales data in January which will be released tomorrow are expected to decrease from the previous month , again gave a negative sentiment for sterling . GBPUSD is currently trading at around 1.6657 , with daily highs and lows 1.6694 1.6634

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News and Review of European Economic Zone (UK)

 

Pound Gains In The poor Central Retail Sales Data

Friday, February 21, 2014

 

The pound rose for the first time in five days against the dollar despite retail sales in the UK fell more than economists forecast in January .

 

Sterling strengthened against all of its 16 major counterparts after the quote in a separate report showed the UK posted a budget surplus last month . Government bond yields did not change much , while the UK stock market rose before Vodafone Group Plc completed their biggest sales in the past decade on this day .

 

The pound rose 0.2% to $ 1.6670 at 17:27 pm after falling as much as 0.6 % in the previous four days . Sterling rose by 0.2 % to 0.8255 per euro .

 

Retail sales excluding fuel fell by 1.5 % last month , after a revised rise of 2.5 % in December, the Office for National Statistics said today .

 

UK budget surplus is smaller than economists forecast in January as tax from income and corporate profits down , based on other reports from the Office for National Statistics . A surplus of 4.7 billion pounds compared with 6 billion pounds in the previous year and economists expect to 8 billion pounds

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News and Review of European Economic Zone (UK)

 

The FTSE Towards Strengthening Biggest Week In 13 Months

Friday, February 21, 2014

 

UK stocks rose, with the FTSE 100 index toward its biggest weekly gain since January 2013, as the stock Vodafone Group Plc and Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc rose.

 

Vodafone shares rose by 2.6% as UBS AG said that the mobile phone operators may be more attractive to potential bidders after the sale of its stake in Verizon Wireless. RBS shares rose 1.8% after a report showed that the lending institution is planning to reduce its workers about 25%. Informa Plc shares rose 1.5% after new CEO says that the company can simplify the operational structure and a more effective use of the scale.

 

The FTSE 100 index gained about 30.77 points, or 0.5%, to 6,843.76 in the afternoon, it is the highest level since 1999 on a daily basis. The index has increased by 2.7% on the week.

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News and Review of European Economic Zone (UK)

 

UK Retail Sales Decline Sharply In

Friday, February 21, 2014

 

UK retail sales fell more than economists forecast in January , led by a decline in the demand for food and clothing stores .

 

Sales including fuel fell as much as 1.5 % from December , when sales rose as much as 2.5 % , said the Office for National Statistics said today in London . This decline was the largest since April 2012 , exceeded the median estimate for a reading down 1 percent from 19 economists surveyed by Bloomberg . This decline highlights the risks to the recovery in the UK , which has so far led by domestic demand . Bank of England Rev economic projections this month and expect that household spending will accelerate to more than 3 percent this year from 2.25 % in 2013 .

 

Today's report shows that food sales fell as much as 3.4 % in December from the month of January, while sales of clothing , footwear and textiles fell as much as 3.5 % , the biggest drop since April 2012 .

 

Sales of household goods rose by 5.3 % , driven by sales of furniture and electronic items . Kosmentik sales also rose , which usually is often seen in the months when sales of clothing fell .

 

From a year ago , retail sales rose 4.3 % , and the statistics bureau said that the data still showed growth in the industry . In a period of three months to January , sales rose by 1.1 % compared with the previous three-month period . The pound was little changed against the dollar today in the range of $ 1.6670 .

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News and Review of European Economic Zone

 

Draghi : ECB Ready to Act If Increased Risk of Deflation

Monday, February 24, 2014

 

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said policy makers are ready to add stimulus if the outlook for currencies deteriorate , although there are currently no signs of deflation currency euro zone .

 

" We do not have evidence that people postpone their spending plans with the view they would buy the same item at a lower price , in other words we do not see what is the definition of deflation , " Draghi said after the G - 20 meeting in Sydney yesterday . " We are concerned about the risks . Governing Council is willing and ready to take any action in any case to regain economic empowerment . "

 

The economists are divided over whether the ECB will raise stimulus to reverse the risk of deflation after inflation in the euro zone slowed to a level of 0.7 % in January , less than half of the ECB's target of 2 % . Draghi said that the council would " have the complete information is needed to decide whether to act or not " at the next policy meeting on March 6 in Frankfurt , when they publish inflation projections for 2016 for the first time .

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News and Review of European Economic Zone (UK)

 

Carney : BOE Not Take Risk In UK Economic Recovery

Monday, February 24, 2014

 

Bank of England Governor , Mark Carney said that the latest phase of the forward guidance are intended to provide assurance that the officials would support the economic recovery .

 

" We will not take risks with the recovery , " Carney said in an interview with Australian newspaper published yesterday . " We will set the path of monetary policy in a way to make sure that we see continued growth in the sector of employment , income and expenditure . "

 

Carney said that in the revised framework for the forward guidance announced earlier this month reflects the need for " the establishment of a more complex assessment " than what is needed in the first stage , where there is a link to the unemployment rate . Bank change its approach after the unemployment rate fell sharply than expected after officials move toward the 7% threshold for considering a rate hike .

 

" We 've made ​​it through an easy guideline phase , which does not say what we do , " Carney said at the sidelines of the G20 meeting of finance ministers and central bankers in Sydney . " Now a question of what we will do , and how and under what criteria , as the economy continues to recover . "

 

The comments after the statement of the partners in the nine- member MPC Carney over time for the first rise in interest rates at the record low level of 0.5 % . Martin Weale said on 20 February that it would probably happen in the spring of 2015 , while chief economist Spencer Dale said a week earlier that investors are betting that next year as well as the increase in interest rates at the level of 2 percent in 2016 is " reasonable . "

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News and Review of European Economic Zone (Germany)

 

German Business Confidence High Level Touched After 2 1/2 Years

Monday, February 24, 2014

 

The level of business confidence in Germany unexpectedly rose to the highest level in 2 ½ years in a signal that the country perutmbuhan in Europe 's largest economy will grow faster . Business climate index from the Ifo institute , based on a survey 7,000 executives , rose to 111.3 in February from 110.6 in January. This is the highest level since July 2011 . Economists expected a drop to 110.5 .

 

Germany is the key to sustaining the fragile recovery in other countries in the eurozone , its biggest trading partner . European Central Bank President Mario Draghi on February 6, and said that ECB officials must memperhatian regional economic data before deciding whether additional measures are needed to provide a stimulus . Since then , the mixed signals coming from the higher growth rate than expected to slowdown in the manufacturing sector .

 

" We expect the pace of growth will be accelerated this year in Germany , " said Sylvain Broyer , chief euro zone economist at Natixis in Frankfurt . " It will be led by private consumption levels as last year . This year , it is a new business investment . "

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News and Review of European Economic Zone (Italy)

 

Italian Prime Minister Wins Vote of Confidence

Tuesday, February 25, 2014

 

Prime Minister of Italy, Matteo Renzi, won his first parliamentary vote of confidence in order to pass his reform policies. Italy's new Prime Minister office last weekend with a fairly ambitious program of tax cuts employees, school investment funding, and institutional reform in order to overcome the slowing down of economic activity in most 3 in the euro zone. With the support of the Democratic party and its coalition, Renzi managed to get 169 votes in favor of the program: more than 139 votes against.

 

Renzi promised credible public finances, but he did not comment whether Italy will loosen EU budget rules as he had proposed. Prime Minister's new 39-year-old has also reduced income tax rates. Renzi express program will be financed by spending cuts and budget.