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News and Overview of the European Economic Zone (UK)

 

Depressed Pound Ahead BoE policy meeting

Thursday, July 7, 2011

 

The U.S. dollar slipped versus the pound sterling which rose broadly on Wednesday, after China rate hike and fears the spread of Euro zone debt crisis forced investors divert their funds into safer assets such as the greenback, which also triggered stop-loss below $ 1.6000.

Sterling previously had been burdened by the sales made by clearing the British and U.S. banks, and will likely remain under pressure as the expectation of rising interest rates prompted investors to increasingly move away with a cable as a funding currency.

 

Recent speculation that indicate if the Bank of England may choose to restart the asset purchase program as an effort to stimulate demand in the economy also helped put pressure on the British currency, ahead of the UK central bank's policy meeting on Thursday.

 

"In the absence of data or news that moves Sterling today, encouraging investors placing it as an alternative funding currency. Cable may still have to go through tough times in the next few months," said Adrian Schmidt, currency analyst at Lloyds Banking Group .

 

While the BoE interest rate swap index of interest rates will still stand at a record low of 0.5% until mid-2012, as the UK economy is struggling with weak demand and high inflation.

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News and Overview of the European Economic Zone

 

Euro Ignore ECB Meeting?

Thursday, July 7, 2011

 

The euro slumped back against the U.S. dollar and still tracked moves in the negative range on Thursday.

The euro slumped mainly due to the widespread negative market sentiment as the country of Portugal is currently a European Union country to-2 after the Greek lowered credit ratings to the status of 'junk' or rubbish by the ratings agency Moody's.

 

Suddenly this condition re-ignited fears of widespread debt crisis of the European zone, plus it is in China yesterday raised interest rates beyond the forecast. Two factors are encouraging investors to switch into safe-haven currencies like the Swiss Franc, Japanese Yen and U.S. Dollar.

 

Avoid the risk of action in the market also increased after a few days ago the euro zone manufacturing numbers and retail sales appear disappointing that these conditions reduce the Euro rally.

 

However, further weakening in today may be limited because there will be a meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to raise interest rates. While the signals that further tightening of the ECB will happen this year, to give my support to the Euro.

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News and Overview of the European Economic Zone (Switzerland)

 

Swiss Parliament began to worry about a drastic strengthening of the franc

Thursday, July 7, 2011

 

ZURICH. Swiss Parliament held a crucial meeting with the relevant central bank continued strengthening of the Swiss franc exchange rate. The meeting involves the economics minister, Johann Scneider Ammann and general chairman of the Central Bank of Switzerland / Swiss National Bank (SNB) Philipp Hildebrand. Both make assessments of current conditions and future prospects related to price stability to maintain the performance of the Swiss economy.

 

Parliament wanted the SNB to take greater steps in maintaining price stability. From March 2009 to June 2010, the SNB intervened to prevent the strengthening of the Swiss franc.

 

At that time, the SNB decided to stop the intervention due to Switzerland's economic performance is still improving despite the strengthening of the Swiss franc continues accelerated.

 

But now, the franc exchange rate is strongly influenced by global conditions so that significant movement. Risk aversion is re-developing countries, ranging from concerns over China to Europe aimed at increasing demand for assets that are safe haven, in this case is the currency with a low yield as the Swiss franc.

 

However, the strengthening of the currency is no good impact on the overall Swiss economy. It was seen from late May retail sales data that describes the pessimism.

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News and European Economic Review (UK)

 

Sterling Grey For Weekend

Friday, July 8, 2011

 

Sterling tracked moving sluggish in the negative range below the key level of $ 1.6000 over the weekend.

In Thursday's trading session yesterday GBP had surged as production data triggered by the UK manufacturing sector is experiencing a sharp rise in May. But the reinforcement did not last long after the Bank of England (BoE) announces interest rate decision remains unchanged at 0.50% level.

 

In addition to the BoE's Monetary Policy Committee also announced a policy to maintain the asset purchase program worth? 200 billion. These factors make the Sterling return instantly corrected until the level falls below the crucial $ 1.6.

 

Contrast with BoE policy, the European Central Bank (ECB) on Thursday it raised interest rates by 0.25 basis points to 1.50%, widening the difference in UK interest rates with the euro zone, another factor that helped push Pound.

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News and European Economic Review (UK)

 

UK Producer Price Inflation Darting

Friday, July 8, 2011

 

UK manufacturers raising prices of June whosale fastest in two and a half months related to rising raw material prices. Price of factory goods increased 5.7% up to June, from a previous 5.4% in May. This is the fastest rise since October 2008, according to the National Statistics Office today (08/07).

 

Producer prices rose 0.1% this month. The increase in the index mainly due to the fastest rise in food prices since October 2008, with growth of 8.9%. Price of kerosene rose 16.5%, but the upward momentum began to fade, reflecting the drop in oil prices in global markets. Price recorded a decrease in the second, amounting to 0.1%. The increase in the overall producer price index is faster than economists forecast. The survey, conducted Dow Jones Newswires last week predicted rising 5.6% and 0.2% monthly gain. The increase in prices of production can affect consumer price inflation if the retailer imposes an increase on consumers. The consumer price index rose 4.5% until May, more than double the BoE's target of 2.0%. BOE estimates that prices will rise sharply this year before returning to the target.

 

Thursday (07/07) BoE hold interest rates remained at low levels throughout the period at 0.5% level.

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News and Overview of the European Economic Zone (Germany)

 

German Exports May Adj 4.3% This Month, +3.7% Import

Friday, 08 JULI 2011

 

German exports rose in May rebounded after a decline in April and widening trade surpluses of Germany, data from the Federal Statistics Office, or Destatis, showed Friday

 

German exports rose 4.3% in May, after the April jump 5.6%, to EUR89.5 billion, according to the calendar-and seasonally-adjusted data. Increases beyond 3.7% monthly rise in imports to EUR76.7 billion.

 

The adjusted trade surplus was EUR12.8 billion, Destatis said, up from EUR11.9 billion in April.

 

Adjusted figures showed Germany's trade surplus widened to EUR14.8 billion from EUR10.8 billion in May - was revised down from EUR10.9 billion - in April. The current account surplus shrank to EUR6.9 billion in May from an upwardly revised slightly EUR9.0 billion in April - EUR8.8 billion.

 

Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had forecast a trade surplus of EUR11.5 billion and adjusted current account surplus of EUR7.0 billion.

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News and Overview of the European Economic Zone

 

Euro Slump to Lowest Level, Domino Effect Concerns Rise.

Monday, July 11, 2011

 

Euro drops against dollar return on the trading pair eur / usd noon today (11-07). The currency weakened to the lowest range observed since early June.

 

Fears of a domino effect in the presence of the public debt crisis in Europe to put pressure on the euro currency.

 

After Greece was undergoing a process of debt restructuring and debt rating slashed four levels Portugal, news also emerged that the European Central Bank (ECB) is preparing bail-out fund for Italy.

 

Analyst Research Vibiz of Vibiz Consulting suggests that the euro weakened observed moving around - 1:17% against the rupiah at foreign exchange trading today.

 

Meanwhile the Euro selling rate of Bank Indonesia rate in the range of Rp. 12158.02/Euro and buying rate of about Rp. 12035.94/Euro.

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News and European Economic Review (UK)

 

Sterling followed the fall of the euro

Monday, July 11, 2011

 

Sterling fell today, following the fall of the euro following the unrest about the Italians will be the next country affected by the debt crisis.

 

On the other hand, the fall of sterling euro support, keeping him under 90 level against the single European currency.

However, market participants said sterling will continue to affected by the euro and the development of the debt crisis ahead of an emergency meeting of the European Union today. The weakening of sterling is not separated from England with a view of the proximity of countries affected by the debt crisis.

 

Economic data are less encouraging further reduce the interest against the pound. Data from the British Chambers of Commerce which showed GDP grew 0.3% during the second quarter and the slowdown in exports indicates the recovery is still sluggish.

 

At 16:30 GMT, sterling traded at $ 1.5958, down from the closing level of $ 1.6040 last week. Against the yen, sterling weakened to 128.91 from 129.32. Sterling rose against the euro to 88.50 pence from 88.84 pence.

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News and European Economic Review (Spanish)

 

Spanish Prime reshuffle his Cabinet

Monday, July 11, 2011

 

Spanish Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero on Monday to do some changes to his cabinet following the resignation of Alfredo Perez Rubalcaba, who previously served as Deputy Prime Minister as well as Interior Minister and the Speaker.

Deputy Interior Minister, Antonio Camacho, will occupy a new position as the new Interior Minister, while Development Minister Jose Blanco is shifted to the government spokesman. Rubalcaba announced his resignation at the weekend in order to better focus for the campaign as a candidate for Prime Minister of the Socialist party in the next general election.

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News and Overview of the European Economic Zone

 

Euro Weakens As Fears On Italy

Tuesday, July 12, 2011

 

The euro weakened against the dollar on Monday amid fears that Europe's debt crisis spread to Italy, at one point had dropped below the psychologically important 1.40-dollar mark.

 

The dollar traded to 1.4029 against the euro in New York on Monday 21:00 GMT Tuesday (04:00 GMT), compared with 1.4258 dollars at the same time Friday.

 

While the dollar fell against the Japanese currency, weakened to 80.24 yen from 80.55 yen on Friday.

 

Common European currency was battered by signs that Italy - the euro zone's third largest economy - could be headed to the Greek-style debt crisis, because the Italian stock market fell and yields on government bonds surged.

 

Eurozone finance ministers meet in Brussels to discuss the new rescue package for the Greeks, even as fears mounted that the Italian or Spanish the next.

 

Yields on 10-year government bonds jumped on Monday to Italy 5.67 percent, while Spain's debt climbed to nearly 6 percent.

 

"The single currency has been absolutely devastated today because the leaders of Europe struggled to stem the loss of confidence that they will be able to come up with a solution to the country's current debt crisis," said Michael Hewson, an analyst at CMC Markets in London.

 

The dollar fell against the Swiss franc, trading to 0.8355 francs on Monday compared with 0.8368 francs on Friday.

 

The dollar rose against the British pound, the dollar traded against the pound to 1.5905 dollars from 1.6048 on Friday.

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News and Overview of the European Economic Zone

 

EURUSD Rebound, But Pressure Still Haunting Bearish

Tuesday, July 12, 2011

 

Again we see a dramatic market movements in the forex market as the slump in the EURUSD to 3-month lows below 1.3850 were triggered by investor panic over the issue sovereign debt.

 

Spread the default security / CDS in Europe monitored widened to a record high in trading today, among others, Greece widened 99 points, Spain widened 25 basis points, 73 basis points Portugal, Italy and Ireland's 25 basis points 64 basis points.

 

Widening CDS spreads, indicating the collapse of investor confidence over a potential European region continued to press pair EUR / USD.

 

Indicated the technical, although prices rebounded from the 1.3830 support, but reinforcement is still limited in the short term 1.3970 area. Translucent above 1.3970 could bring the price into the neutral zone to test 1.4100.

 

Overall bearish scenario remains solid during the last price below 1.4220. On the bottom, fell below 1.3830 could trigger further bearish momentum targeting 1.3530 area.

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News and European Economic Review (UK)

 

GBP / USD Weakens As Retail Sales Data Worse UK

Tuesday, July 12, 2011

 

Pound falls back below the 1.6000 level after the retail sales and housing data from the UK today looks bad. GBP today weakened during Asian trading as yesterday. Currently pounds continued to fall and be on the level of 1.5860.

 

Over the last three months of the currency pair continues to decline, and it is because UK interest rates are still at 0.50%. Meeteng MPC minutes yesterday showed no rate hikes

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News and European Economic Review (Germany)

 

German Banking Optimistic With Stress-Test Results

Wednesday, July 13, 2011

 

All of the 13 German banks taking part in the stress-test the European banks are likely to qualify, although two of them record the results only slightly higher than the minimum threshold, according to a resource that is involved in the program.

Government-owned bank, HSH Nordbank, will probably have a ratio of core Tier 1 capital adequacy of about 5.5% based on the heaviest stress-test scenario, slightly above the minimum 5% required. While NordLB ratio is expected to be in the range of 5% -6%. While banks such as Deutsche Bank AG, Commerzbank AG, Hypo Real Estate, WestLB, BayernLB, LBBW, Deka, DZ Bank, WGZ file, Landesbank Berlin and Helaba, is expected to have a core capital adequacy ratio of at least 6% Tier 1.

 

From Spain, two commercial banks is likely to experience stress-test failures in the banking sector with the heaviest scenario, according to the ABC report on Wednesday without mentioning the source of the news. Some Spanish savings banks or cajas also expected to experience similar things, ABC added.

 

Stress-test results of 91 European banks scheduled to be released next Friday. European banks are required to have a capital adequacy ratio of Core Tier 1 over 5% of weighted assets in case of a severe economic crisis and goyahnya market over the next 2 years. Core Tier 1 is the highest level of quality that will demonstrate the ability of a bank in covering future losses

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News and Overview of the European Economic Zone

 

No Plan At the Meeting of the European Union

Wednesday, July 13, 2011

 

No company is planning to hold an emergency meeting of EU leaders linked the economic crisis of the European region. The main priority of the meeting was that the finance ministers are willing to approve the details of a second rescue package for Greece.

 

"There's no real plan at the special meeting. More priority is the finance ministers to approve a new aid package for Greece. "German government spokesman said.

 

EU representative told Reuters that a special meeting will be held on Friday (15 / 7) amid growing concerns over the spread of the debt crisis in the European region. In addition the meeting will also discuss the structure of the new aid agreement for Greece

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News and Overview of the European Economic Zone

 

European Debt Crisis Enters New Round

Wednesday, July 13, 2011

 

In recent months the news about pekonomian world dominated by news about the European Union. The more so after the debt crisis that occurred in Greece, until now fears intensified after the company rating agency Moody's cut its credit rating debt of Portugal and a week later the Irish suffer the same fate. Credit ratings of the two countries was lowered to "junk".

 

"The debt crisis has entered a new phase of Europe and policy makers must come up with clear answers that threaten to stop transmission of the single currency in the region." Said Mario Draghi, President of the European Central Bank (ECB) future.

 

Still according to the opinion that in order to manage the crisis that raged in the European Union needed cooperation among the EU members to provide certainty about the stability of the region and the single currency euro.

 

"European governments can no longer rely on their funding costs from Germany, the EU country with the strongest economy, simply because of their participation in the single currency." He added.

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News and Overview of the European Economic Zone (UK)

 

Safe! During GBP Constant Above $ 1.6080

Thursday, July 14, 2011

 

Pounds observed experiencing a correction until the afternoon session on Thursday, but still quite safe during the exchange is moving above the $ 1.6080 support level.

This correction is due to negative sentiment Sterling chastened after ratings agency Moody's mentioned the possibility of a plan to cut the credit ratings of U.S. bonds. This condition is feared could rekindle investor anxiety of the global financial crisis.

 

Session GBP rose sharply yesterday against the U.S. dollar due mainly lifted by Fed Governor Ben Bernanke's speech hinted at a possibility that the next round of monetary policy easing if the economy continues to weaken and inflation continues to decline.

 

Technically if the USD broke below the $ 1.6080 support, it is feared could trigger further bearish Sterling crucial to the level of $ 1.6. If the level is still well penetrated 1.6, it is not impossible if Sterling would fall to 1.5940 to 1.5900.

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News and Overview of the European Economic Zone

 

European bourses opened Low After Warning Moody

Thursday, July 14, 2011

 

European equity markets fell Thursday morning as traders digested news that Moody's Investors Service placed the credit ratings on review for possible U.S. downgrade.

 

Pan-European index Stoxx 600 fell 0.8% to 267.9, with InterContinental Hotels Group PLC shares fell nearly 3% after a disappointing outlook from rivals. France's CAC 40 slipped 1.1% to 3,751.9 and Germany's DAX 30 index fell 0.9% to 7,205.2.

 

Britain's FTSE 100 fell 1% to 5,848.4. Lafarge SA shares rose 0.9% in Paris after the company said in talks to sell the assets of gypsum Europe and South America.

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News and Overview of the European Economic Zone (Greece)

 

Greece Need a New Bailout Funds

Thursday, July 14, 2011

 

Prime Minister of Greece, George Papandreou, European express and the IMF must quickly approve the new bailout for the country to avoid the failure of economic reform plan. "The situation is not helped us through the crisis," said Papandreou told the Financial Times Deutschland. "These uncertainties make investors afraid. If we do not get the decision right then the implementation of economic reforms may be delayed."

 

Papandreou's proposal opens up the use of funds ESFS (European Financial Stability Facility) so that Greece can buy back the bonds. "This idea could alleviate the debt burden of Greece," Papandreou said. "But decisions must be made quickly. Theoretically, it could take two weeks or longer, which would mean a lot more damage can be inflicted. "

 

Dana ESFS? 440 billion has been used to help Ireland and Portugal. Part of the ECB and the German officials have rejected the idea of ​​the use of funds ESFS to buy bonds in the secondary market but the German Finance Ministry yesterday said the policy could in theory be done.

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News and Overview of the European Economic Zone (Switzerland)

 

Will the Swiss National Bank to intervene Strengthening the Swiss Franc?

Friday, July 15, 2011

 

Currency Swiss franc again overshadow its historic record high against the USD and EUR, triggered by the overall uncertainty to trigger the transfer of risk investors into safe-haven assets.

 

However the strengthening of the Swiss franc began to attract the attention of politicians Switzerland, because it is considered more damaging export competitiveness of Switzerland as well as burdening the performance of domestic capital markets.

 

Quite a contrast with the attitude of the BoJ, SNB likely to intervene in case of further strengthening is still very little chance.

 

Observed so far USD / CHF successfully corrected upwards due to profit taking ahead of key reports stress test results 90 European banks. According to the consensus polled by Reuters, there will be 10 to 15 banks that are otherwise not feasible, if indicated more failed banks stated it was likely triggered the transfer of risk back to further support the Swiss franc.

 

Based on technical studies, the reaction of a technical rebound from 0.8080 is still limited in the low resistance area 0.8200. Intraday bias remains bearish as long as the price moves in the bearish channel on the graph H1, at least target the 0.7950 target. But it still required under the area of ​​support is consistent penetration of 0.8020 - 0.8080 to trigger further bearish momentum.

 

Unless the price of penetrating above 0.8200, signifying a phase of consolidation continues to test the next technical level of 0.8270. Overall, we still see opportunities continuation bearish scenario for prices to survive under the 0.8400 area.

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News and Overview of the European Economic Zone

 

Opportunities Short Selling EUR / USD Coming Stress Test

Friday, July 15, 2011

 

Euro The single currency traded within a narrow range against the dollar Friday as markets wait n see attitude ahead of the release of European banks stress test results. However these results will be published just after the closure of European markets and the lack of progress since the approval of a new bailout fund for Greece, the Euro dollar sentiment is still fragile.

 

Observed so far EUR / USD traded break even at the level of 1.4145 is not far from today's opening level. Factors that could drag the EUR / USD again plunged among others the confidence of investors as a whole has not been strong because of the lack of a systemic solution to the debt problems of Europe.

 

Technically speaking, we can look at the H1 chart where the price of a bearish continuation pattern forming a descending triangle, which indicates at least a short selling opportunity targeting 1.3950 area in the short term.

 

However still required penetration is consistently below the area 1.4050 - 1.4095 to trigger further bearish momentum.

 

On the upside, the nearest resistance level is located in the area of ​​1.4220 followed by 1.4283, translucent area can change over the intraday bias to neutral because of its direction becomes unclear in the short term. But overall bearish scenario remains strong as long as the price does not exceed the 1.4375 area, an aggressive trader can do the sell on rally at 1.4220 resistance with tight stop loss is not far from the 1.4283 area.

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News and Overview of the European Economic Zone

 

Important Day For European Banks

Friday, July 15, 2011

 

European banks stress test results that last possibility is still difficult to assuage fears at the level of capital, due to the spread of sovereign debt crisis has undermined investor confidence, especially in the sector.

 

The results of the second round of stress tests on Wednesday will be released after European stock markets closed. European banking authorities to release any banks that failed the test of feasibility, as well as specific information on how much exposure banks of toxic assets.

 

Analysts expect the bank to face a more stringent test of feasibility than last year. The problem is how credible are the results of stress tests if there is no specific assumption of sovereign default scenario.

 

The banks that failed the stress test would have to recapitalize in a large enough scale, and have struggled to find additional funds from the market. So far there has been no significant predictions on how many failed, but the main candidates are the banks based in Spain.

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News and Overview of the European Economic Zone (UK)

 

GBPUSD awaiting Phase Out of Consolidation

Monday, July 18, 2011

 

GBPUSD lost him on Monday. The bias remains neutral in the short term, as long as the price moves below the previous daily highest level, the main scenario is still a downtrend. However, hammer formations that looked at the Daily charts indicate the potential for upward correction testing 1.6175. Translucent over the area could bring the price into the neutral zone in the short-term target 1.6192.

 

Overall bearish scenario remains valid as long as prices stay below 1.6260 resistance area, the nearest support level at 1.6050 area, fell under the area could trigger further bearish momentum at least for targeting key areas of support 1.6000 - 1.5950

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News and Overview of the European Economic Zone (Switzerland)

 

USD / CHF 0.8175 Resistance Test

Monday, July 18, 2011

 

USD / CHF appears to have been successfully recovered and away from a record low on Monday as investors began to reduce poaching safe-haven currencies like the Swiss franc, despite fears of a prolonged debt problems still remaining in the market. Almost throughout today's trading currency pairs is traversed by persisting in positive territory, to continue to test the resistance level at 0.8175.

Despite recent movements in USD / CHF showed an increase, team analysis of ForexMansion.com assess if the "currency pair is still potentially plagued sell on rallies, where any increase would be followed by selling pressure. We do not recommend to short, no matter what the ascension. "

 

While the EUR / CHF has also shown similar movements throughout the day. Had fallen down to the 1.1400 area in the Asian session, the EUR / USD could rise to re-approach the level of 1.1500, although it still seems to be able to penetrate the shortage of those levels.

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News and Overview of the European Economic Zone (UK)

 

Housing Sector overload Pounds

Monday, July 18, 2011

 

Pound weakens, weighed down UK house prices fall in July. This is the first decline for 2011 as tight mortgage filing requirements. Home prices fell 1.6%, worse than an increase of 0.6% in June, according to data released. Seven of the 10 properties listed in 2011 are still available for sale, this is a serious overview of the housing sector.

 

Sterling is also burdened by the fall of the euro due to worsening debt crisis of the euro-zone. Skeptical market crisis will reach settlement agreements after ECB's Trichet stressed that disagreement over Greece's debt restructuring plan.

 

The weakening of sterling could worsen if the BoE meeting minutes confirm gloomy economic outlook for the UK. The BoE will release minutes on Wednesday when analysts predicted the central bank will provide a strong reason to maintain interest rates at record low of 0.5%. Swap index also showed the BoE monetary policy will not change until the end of 2012.

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News and Overview of the European Economic Zone

 

Urges Euro Yen, European Economic Sentiment Strengthens Against Negative.

Tuesday, July 19, 2011

 

Recent data releases ZEW Economic Sentiment indicator has just been released by the Zentrum fur Europaische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW), showed signals of progress is less encouraging on the EU economy.

 

The impact to the release of trade data pair USD / JPY this afternoon (19-07), which monitored happen weakening Euro.

 

The forex market responds to this by pressing the pair EUR / JPY, so in the range of 111.98.

 

Actual Data ZEW Economic Sentiment indicator fell to -7.0 reported previously expected to deteriorate from -5.9 to -7.4.

 

Analyst Research Vibiz of Vibiz Consulting suggests that the euro still has the potential to weaken further against the Japanese yen. Support intraday estimated in the range of 110.97.

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