News and Reviews European Economic Zone

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News and Review of European Economic Zone (UK)

 

BoE's Miles: Slowing Inflation England Risk of Deflation

Monday, December 22, 2014

 

A sharp slowdown in the rate of UK inflation does not pose a risk of deflation and no new policies are needed to stimulate the economy, according to one senior Bank of England on Sunday newspaper column. David Miles, which suggests the existence of affirmative action when the financial crisis as one of the nine members of the BoE policy votingi, said that some people argue that slowing the rate of inflation as the reason for the need for a more lax policy. "It seems implausible 6 months ago and even now I still doubt," he said, explaining that the decline in food and fuel prices mean people are more able to cope with their debt and may not be meunda shopping today. "But it does mean that there is no rush to start the process of normalization of monetary policy. "

 

Miles said he probably would not vote for a rate hike before his tenure at the BoE ends in August and in line with expectations in financial markets he mengatkan first rate hike will only be at the end of next year. Part of the reason is the sharp drop in global oil prices in recent years, which has been pressing down the rate of inflation, and a weak level of demand in emerging economies, especially China, he said.

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News and Review of European Economic Zone (UK)

 

BoE Weale: Drop in Oil Prices Not Signals Long-Term Inflation

Monday, December 22, 2014

 

The sharp drop in oil prices should not be considered as a signal level of inflation in the next few years, according to one senior Bank of England who voted to hike interest rates. "What we have seen in recent months is a very sharp decline in oil prices has a direct impact on the rate of inflation," said Martin Weale on Monday. "But where inflation will be in the next 2 years is a different matter."

 

Weale and other BoE officials Ian McCafferty is 2 out of 9 members of the BoE's Monetary Policy Committee voted to hike interest rates in recent months. The central bank has signaled it does not expect rate hikes until 2015 as the central bank said there was little pressure on inflation, which seems to be down far below the level of 12-year low at 1% were touched in November. Weale warned that oil prices have come down much deeper since the MPC of most recent meeting in early December, but the data also showed the rate of growth of wages rose slightly faster than expected. "The increase in the wage rate is a good thing," he said. "However, if the rate of increase in wages has increased very sharply, it can trigger inflationary pressures." He also predicted the existence of a number of productivity growth in 2015 while the decline in oil prices will help consumer spending.

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News and Review of European Economic Zone (Greece)

 

Greece Ready To Vote President Back

Tuesday, December 23, 2014

 

Greek parliament prepares to return to vote tonight's presidential election. Prime Minister Antonis Samaras is still trying to garner more support Stavros Dimas, the presidential candidate who proposes, can be selected as the next head of the Greek state. Samaras has megajukan offers to accelerate the implementation of the elections at the end of 2015 so that more members that voted for Dimas.

 

Voting is scheduled to occur at 17:00 pm and the results may be obtained several hours later. However, it remains unclear whether Samaras can find additional 20 votes needed to pass Dimas as President of Greece. So far there are only 169 votes in parliament which supports Dimas; still less than the minimum of 200 votes.

 

Voting president of Greece is quite crucial because it can determine whether the financial markets must be prepared to face the Greek turmoil could lead to turmoil several years ago. Voting ends earlier last week failed. If the vote fails tonight, Samaras still has until December 29 to garner more support in parliament. The last Voting may be done next Monday only need 180 votes to put Dimas presidency.

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News and Review of European Economic Zone (Greece)

 

Opportunities Greek Syriza Party Denies Exit From Euro Zone

Tuesday, December 23, 2014

 

Influential officials of Syriza Party Dimitris Papadimoulis reaffirmed his party's commitment to remain in the Eurozone.

 

Since the announcement of the Presidential vote in Greece, there are some reports that the international market now do not trust the government is controlled by the Syriza party, while opposition parties also have a plan B to return to the Drachma currency, consequently the Greek stock market dropped sharply due to political uncertainty and anxiety default if there are scenarios Greece out of the euro zone.

 

Once released the results of the latest poll in which Syriza still leads the vote in the upcoming election, seeks to reduce the fear Papadimoulis Greek exit from the euro zone, to declare that the government is still committed to escort Syriza Greece survive in the Eurozone. Opportunities Greek exit of the Eurozone it is very dangerous for the economy that will trigger a new phase of recession, soaring unemployment and poverty.

 

Additionally scenario Greek Exit from the Euro zone is also very unlikely that allowed because it would cause a systemic impact for the entire region of Europe, including Germany

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News and Review of European Economic Zone (UK)

 

Pound Weakens Vs. Euro Along Easing Anxiety In Russia

Tuesday, December 23, 2014

 

The pound weakened for the first time in five days against the euro after Saudi Arabian Oil Minister said that the oil market will recover, the statement was calm nerves decline of the Russian economy that relies on oil exports that previously would potentially overload the Euro area.

 

The British currency was little changed against the dollar before the release of a report tomorrow that economists said will show the UK economy grew by 0.7% in the third quarter. UK government bonds rose for a second day after the Bank of England report that shows global risks to financial stability have increased since June. Policymaker David Miles said separately that the UK does not need attitude looser monetary policy.

 

"The movement of the pound against the euro is greater affected by the euro," said Lee Hardman, currency analyst at Bank of Tokyo-Mistusbishi UFJ Ltd. in London. "It seems that Russia's concerns about the economic outlook has subsided and it supports the euro. We expect the strengthening of the pound against the euro will take place in the long term."

 

The pound fell by 0.3% to 0.7848 per euro at 24.00 pm after rising by 1.3% in the last week, it is the greatest appreciation since June. Sterling is currently engaged in a range of $ 1.5615

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News and Review of European Economic Zone (Switzerland)

 

KOF: Key Indicators of the Swiss Economy Weakens at End of Year

Wednesday, December 24th, 2014

 

The main indicators are released KOF Swiss Economic tapering off at the end of 2014. It indicates if the Swiss would not be able to avoid the impact of the economic slowdown in the Euro zone, which bought more than half the country's annual exports.

 

The index fell 0.2 points to 98.7 in December from 98.9 in November, according to a report Wednesday KOF. This figure is still weaker than expected 99.3. Nevertheless, the index remained near the long-term average and the level of the signaling largely Swiss economic outlook is still stable, plus agency based in Zurich it.

 

Beyond that, the fragility of the Euro bloc economy has forced the Swiss government last week lowered its forecast for GDP growth to 2.1% in the next year from its earlier projection of 2.4%.

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News and Review of European Economic Zone (France)

 

French Unemployment Rate Touches New Record High

Wednesday, December 24th, 2014

 

The unemployment rate in France touched a new record high in November, strengthening the challenges faced by President Francois Hollande in boosting the 2nd largest economy Euro zone.

 

The number of unemployed in France increased by 27,000 in November to 3.49 million, according to the Ministry of Labor reported Wednesday. The figure was 0.8% higher than in October and rose 5.8% from a year earlier. Monthly unemployment rate, which recorded an increase in all age categories, only shows once a decline in the last year.

 

The highest record unemployment Hollande highlights efforts to create jobs and spur hiring. Since taking office as President of France in May 2012, the government has initiated funding to encourage youth employment and labor tax cut. But the unemployment rate actually swell more than half a million over slowing economic growth.

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News and Review of European Economic Zone (UK)

 

Sterling Vulnerable to Slowing Eurozone

Friday, December 26th, 2014

 

Optimism over the outlook for Sterling looks less and less, as the continued shrinking of rate hike expectations the Bank of England earlier since last July. A shift in investors' view that along with increasingly gloomy economic outlook 18-nation bloc, Britain's biggest trading partner.

 

Recent data indicate if the euro zone becomes the goal of 48% of total UK exports, the highest in almost two years. It indicates that although the UK economy has recovered from the blow of the recession in 2008-2009, sensitivity to the weakness in the Euro zone has increased

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News and Review of European Economic Zone

 

EURUSD rebound Limited Voting tuned Greece

Monday, December 29th, 2014

 

Pairing EURUSD bounced from the low-level 2-year but is still limited due to anxiety Greek elections in recent weeks.

 

Trading activity is also expected to still not normal before the New Year holiday which most investors had to liquidate his position before the end of the year.

 

The situation in Greece, Prime Minister Antonis Samaras will be faced with a parliamentary vote which decides whether the country had to repeat the national elections that could cause left Syriza party rule and create uncertainty in international bailout. Potential bad Greek voting results has become one of the risk factors that suppress the EURUSD pairing.

 

Over the weekend, Jens Weidmann member of the ECB and the Bundesbank president also stated that the rate of economic growth in Germany has the potential to improve over the next year estimates, and expressed optimism that the situation in Europe is not as bad as many people expected.

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News and Review of European Economic Zone

 

European Stocks Open Week with Optimistic

Monday, December 29th, 2014

 

European stock markets today opened at a higher level as the optimism of market participants on the performance of the major stock indexes United States. Investors blue continent believes Wall Street will continue to rise over the weekend.

 

The positive sentiment from New York has been absorbed by Asian market participants at the beginning of the week. Some of the major Asian indices rose except the Nikkei, which was hit by the news about the outbreak of Ebola oblique suffered citizens. The spotlight focused on the stock exchange-traded AirAsia Malaysia. AirAsia had declined about 9% to its lowest position in the 4 last week on news of the loss of an aircraft from Surabaya to Singapore.

 

Back to Europe, the Euro exchange rate has weakened to its lowest position in the last 28 months. Investors are not interested in the Euro-based financial assets for fear of election results in the Greek political instability will affect the region. If the Prime Minister Antonis Samaras failed to reap the 180 votes needed to win the election, then there will be a subsequent election. This means that political uncertainty will still overshadow Athens in the near future, in line with the ongoing economic downturn.

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News and Review of European Economic Zone

 

Claim ECB Private Sector Credit Flow From Recovered

Tuesday, December 30th, 2014

 

The economic climate in the euro zone is still sluggish. But the European Central Bank confidence that conditions are better now, as seen from the results of the most recent data.

 

The latest economic reports showed that the level of borrowing funds to businesses in the euro zone rose in November compared to October 2014. However, when compared with the same period last year, the figure is still lower.

 

Private sector lending fell 0.9% compared to November 2013. Meanwhile, if in-comparison with a decrease in the period October 2014 which amounted to 1.1%, the percentage decline in November was lower. The general indicator of the money supply, M3, up 3.1% compared to November last year, higher than the increase in the money supply in October amounted to 2.5%.

 

The European Central Bank claims that the improved flow of loans in the private credit sector as a signal of business recovery in the Euro zone. "Credit flows began to recover in the Euro area," commentator ECB in its monthly report.

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News and Review of European Economic Zone (Greece)

 

Sentiment Drag the Greek crisis European shares

Tuesday, December 30th, 2014

 

European stocks fell sharply on Tuesday heightened anxiety related burdened political future of Greece and also dragged by the fall of oil prices further.

 

So far the London FTSE index fell -0.91% to 6,552.5, while Germany's DAX slipped -0.74% at 9,869.5 and the French CAC fell -0.90% trading at 4,285.0 so far.

 

While the Spanish Ibex stock index and the FTSE MIB Italy also seem to be under pressure as fears of a systemic effect on volatility Greece is likely to be transmitted to the peripheral countries such as Spain and Italy. In addition, Spanish Ibex index was also pressured by the Spanish consumer price inflation report for December which dipped below estimates.

 

Prospects for new negotiations between Greece and its creditors after the bailout failed presidential voting results has raised new concerns for investors. In addition, the credit rating agency Fitch Ratings also said the current situation has become an additional risk for Greece's credit rating denagn worst case scenario is triggered defulat Greek bonds and finally had to get out of the Euro zone.

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News and Review of European Economic Zone (France)

 

French Consumer Confidence Continues to Recover

Tuesday, January 6th, 2015

 

French consumer confidence continued to rise for the second consecutive month in December and inflation expectations down, on show in the report of the French statistics bureau.

 

The level of trust is measured by Insee rose to 90 in December from 88 in November, it was the highest level since June 2012.

 

Inse said that the rebound in consumer confidence levels driven by the improvement in consumers' assessment of their finances. Sector households in the survey by Insee also said that the standard of living they rebounded in December from November, although they are still quite worried by rising unemployment.

 

The survey also showed that French consumer prices will rise in the estimate. The level of inflation expectations measured by Insee is currently at its lowest level since February 2010, and the proportion of households think that prices have risen strongly in the lowest level since 1999,

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News and Review of European Economic Zone (UK)

 

UK Construction Activity Slows in December

Tuesday, January 6th, 2015

 

UK service sector activity adds to signs of slowing momentum of the country's economic recovery after a previously reported decline in manufacturing activity and construction.

 

Markit report service sector activity index fell to 55.8 at the end of last year, from November amounted to 58.6. The index number is expected to increase to 58.9 break by economists, and the lowest level in 19 months.

 

Markit chief economist Chris Williamson, said the slowdown in the three sectors (manufacturing, construction, services) indicates slowing growth in the UK in the last quarter of last year, and probably in the range of 0.5%. The UK economy grew 0.7% in the third quarter from the previous quarter, with annual growth of 3%

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News and Review of European Economic Zone

 

Business World Eurozone growth lower than expected

Tuesday, January 6th, 2015

 

Businesses in the euro zone growth in December was lower than the initial release. The data from Markit showed a final reading of the composite index of business activity (manufacturing and services) rose to 51.4 in December from 51.1 in November. The index number is lower than the initial release of 59.7 and expectations of economists who predicted fixed at 59.7. A reading above 50 indicates ekspanasi or growth, while below 50 indicates contraction.

 

Survey of 5,000 manufacturing and service businesses are also showing in the coming months will not be a significant increase. For the last quarter of 2014, the composite index touched its lowest level since the third quarter of 2013, and gives an indication of the euro zone economic growth in the period from October to December will be lower than the previous three-month period. The eurozone economy grew only 0.2% in the third quarter from the second quarter grew only 0.1%.

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News and Review of European Economic Zone (Germany)

 

Unemployment in Germany Declining Sharply in December

Wednesday, January 7th, 2015

 

The number of unemployed in Germany suffer a sharp reduction in December, becoming the largest European pereknomian signal will accelerate this year.

 

The Federal Labor Agency reported the number of unemployed fell 27,000 to 2.841 million in December. This figure is much larger than economists forecast that predicted a decline of 5,000 people. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate fell to 6.5% was reported, a record low in more than two decades.

 

The health of the labor market to encourage the consumption level in Germany are expected to record a rise in the fourth quarter is 2014, and brought up to early 2015. Statistical Bureau Germany sebeelumnya reported retail sales rose 1.0% in November from the previous month, and estimates throughout 2014 retail sales will grow 1.2%

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News and Review of European Economic Zone (Italy)

 

Unemployment Italy Print record high in November

Wednesday, January 7th, 2015

 

Italy's unemployment rate back up and scored a record high in November, prompting the Italian government to carry out reforms in the labor market to cut the unemployment rate.

 

Istat reported Italy's unemployment rate rose to 13.4% from 13.3% in October. From November 2013, the unemployment rate rose 0.9%. Percentage in November was the highest since Istat began collecting data in 2004 based monthly and quarterly basis in 1977.

 

The unemployment rate for those aged between 15 and 24 years Nauk be 43.9% in November. The number of young unemployed become a sensitive political issue in the past 11 months, the government of Prime Minister Matteo Renzi trying to overhaul the labor market system to help Italy out of the longest recession in decades backward

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News and Review of European Economic Zone

 

Eurozone Inflation Fall Below Estimates

Wednesday, January 7th, 2015

 

Consumer price inflation in the euro zone shrank at an annual rate in December for his first time since the financial crisis five years ago. This situation would put additional pressure for the ECB to increase its stimulus program at the beginning of this month.

 

EU statistical agency reported lower CPI inflation of 0.2% compared to the level in December 2013, as well as a downfall for 22 consecutive months in which inflation well below the ECB's target level of 2%. Inflation has experienced a decreasing trend since August 2012, falling below 1.0% in October 2013 and fell below 0.5% in the month of July 2014.

 

If inflation continues downfall will reflect the economic situation worsened with the character of weak output growth with high inflation accompanied the fall in business investment.

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News and Review of European Economic Zone (Germany)

 

German Factory Orders Down in November

Thursday, January 8th, 2015

 

The number of German factory orders fell for the first time in three months in November, reflecting the slowdown in the recovery of confidence in the country with the largest economy in Europe.

 

Data from the German economy ministry showed that the number of bookings, which is adjusted for seasonal changes and inflation, fell by 2.4% after a revised 2.9% to the increase in October. Economists in a Bloomberg survey earlier prediction for a decline of 0.4% from a year ago.

 

Germany getting squeezed to avoid a recession as it did in mid-2014, and the Bundesbank said last month that the economy is only "modest recovery," in the fourth quarter. At the time of the survey showed German economic sentiment improved, sentiment in the Euro area as a whole is struggling with sluggish growth, plus the decline in the value of the currency and the unstable political situation in Greece.

 

Before the report was released, Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg Bank in London, said that recent worries about the eurozone members including Greece may hamper short-term rebound in business confidence and investment sentiment. But should risk it could be solved.

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News and Review of European Economic Zone (UK)

 

Keep BOE Interest Rate Reference

Thursday, January 8th, 2015

 

The Bank of England kept its benchmark interest rate of 0.5% at the monetary policy meeting today, taking into account the decline in oil prices can make inflation further away from the central bank's inflation target. Nine members of policymakers also agreed to maintain the asset purchase program at £ 375 billion.

 

BOE Governor, Mark Carney last November said inflation in the UK will soon drop below 1%, a decline that require Carney to write an open letter to the head of the Treasury, George Osborne, to explain why ordinary inflation fell more than 1% of the central bank's target of 2%.

 

Estimates of the BOE showed inflation will reach the target by the end of 2017, although it is also estimated that economic growth will continue and the unemployment rate declined. The investor expects the BOE will maintain its benchmark interest rate until early 2016

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News and Review of European Economic Zone

 

Eurozone Economic Sentiment Stagnant in December

Thursday, January 8th, 2015

 

The European Commission said the euro zone economic sentiment index stagnant 100.7 in December. Economists had forecast economic sentiment to rise to 101.2. Industrial confidence level was reported down to -5.2 from -4.3 in November of. While the service sector sentiment rose to 5.6 from 4.4.

 

The fragility of the economic recovery of the country's 19 blocks weigh on economic sentiment, the report was released after reportedly entered the euro zone deflation for the first time in five years in December. Attention is now focused on the European Central Bank will hold a monetary policy meeting next two weeks.

 

Another report released today by Eurostat showed eruo zone retail sales rose 0.6% in November from the previous month, and better than economists' forecast of 0.3%

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News and Review of European Economic Zone

 

Eurozone Retail Sales Rise 2 months in a row

Thursday, January 8th, 2015

 

Euro zone retail sales recorded an increase for the 2nd month in a row in November, indicating if the sharp decline in crude oil prices have pushed the purchase of other goods and help sustain economic growth.

 

The EU statistics agency reports Thursday showed retail sales grew 0.6% to 2 months in a row, which brought the annual increase to 1.5%. The data reflects both consumer spending growth in the 4th quarter, with the fall in world oil prices has made the possibility of households have more money to buy other goods and services.

 

The strong rise in retail sales during October and November can also erode concerns about the risk of the fall of the Euro zone into deflation. Concerns were heightened, especially after economic data released Wednesday showed a decline in consumer prices 18-nation bloc, the first negative number since 2009

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News and Review of European Economic Zone (Germany)

 

Negative German Industrial Production in November

Friday, January 9th, 2015

 

German industrial production unexpectedly fell for the first time in three months in November amid declining energy output, sinyalkan that the recovery in the country with Europe's largest economy is still fragile.

 

Outut, which are customized to seasonal fluctuations, fell by 0.1% from October, when output rose a revised 0.6%, in the report by the Ministry of Economic Affairs in Berlin today. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News called for a 0.3% rise. Production fell by 0.5% from a year ago.

 

Bundesbank has said that the German economy will only "moderate growth" in the fourth quarter, after effectively stagnated in the previous six months. At the time of the survey showed economic sentiment in Germany improved, the outlook is in contrast with other euro zone member states that are struggling on low growth, the decline in the exchange rate as well as political ketidaktsabilan in Greece.

 

Andrew Ress, chief German economist at UniCredit MIB in Munich say that the message is very important that we have had the point is we need a little patience. In business sentiment, there must be sufficient evidence that proves even more German companies have started to recover.

 

Today's data shows the energy output fell by 2.4% in November from the previous month and down 0.6% construction. The manufacturing sector rose by 0.3%, in the crutch by the increase in investment and output of consumer goods.

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News and Review of European Economic Zone

 

Collapsing Euro Ahead of Nonfarm Payrolls Data

Friday, January 9th, 2015

 

The Euro is under pressure due to expectations of monetary easing by the ECB's massive, especially the investors anticipate a key US employment data that sustains scenario solid Fed interest rate hikes.

 

ECB President Mario Draghi signaled that the ECB board members are more ready to take action if needed to overcome the conventional no risk of low inflation (deflation), thus spurring expectations of ECB monetary easing later this month.

 

So far the pairing EURUSD dropped to 1.1792, after reaching its lowest point at 1.1783 intraday and daily highs at 1.1814. Overall the single currency has dropped -5.3% in the past four weeks, recorded its sharpest slowdown since May 2012.

 

Technically daily closing below 2010 lows at 1.1877, could trigger a bearish momentum targeting low area in 2005 at the level of 1.1640 as targets major support. Euro zone economic data weak, among others, the German industrial production, trade balance as well as French industrial production that fell below estimates also did not help.

 

Another negative catalysts, anxiety Greek election results on 25 January which can cause anxiety Greek default if the bailout program fails to be met by the party winning the Greek election, so this is the reason for market participants to add short positions in the EURUSD pairing. Instead the US dollar index rose against various other currencies as investors took the positioning on the US nonfarm payrolls data were positive tonight.

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News and Review of European Economic Zone (UK)

 

Sterling Preserve Post Strengthening Manufacturing Production Data

Friday, January 9th, 2015

 

Pound sterling managed to strengthen against the dollar to trade the European session today, and temporarily stop penutunan in five consecutive days. Rising UK manufacturing production was able to maintain the strengthening of sterling.

 

Office for National Statistc report UK manufacturing production rose 0.7% in November from the previous month were down 0.7%. Percentage increase in November was higher than economists forecast of 0.4%. ONS also reported the British trade deficit narrowed to £ 8.8 billion, better than economists' forecasts of £ 9.5 billion. While the deficit in October was revised to £ 9.8 billion from the previous release of £ 9.6 billion.

 

GBPUSD traded in the range of 1.5126 at 16:58 pm, with daily lows and highs 1.5076 1.5148 (Monex Trader platform)

 

The next focus on non-farm payrolls will be released tonight. The US economy is expected to add 241,000 workers in December, from a sharp increase 321 000 in November. The ADP report on Wednesday that said the private sector has added 241,000 workers, better than economists estimated 227,000 making optimism apiknya NFP data will be released today