News!

[Guest indoshare]

Hi Guys,

 

Can someone tell me which news releases as per forex factory are accurate. Because NFP is not accurate all times. When the actual numbers are good for USD the USD falls in NFP.

 

SO please tell me which other big moving news releases have a consistent effect on a particular currency.

 

Thanks,

 

Indoshare

[alansim]

And what system have you got to share with us here ??

[soundfx]

indoshare,

 

News trading isn't as simple as that lol. There is no formula for news, aside from attempting to trade news on "surprise" numbers - i.e. if the actual differs from the forecast to a good degree - though even measuring that difference won't give consistent results.

 

There's a lot of hot air normally coming from the "talking heads" as to why price moved in a particular direction after news is released and most of it is just guesswork.

 

After studying the effects of news for some time, particularly in the current economic climate with all the global uncertainty, I've come to the conclusion that the actual news doesn't really matter. I believe that the central banks, investment banks and major hedge funds know their positions well in advance of news and place large orders at strategic places above and below the current price level. Typically these institutions have a bias to look for investment in currencies which will give the best reward over a given timescale.

 

For example, look at how AUDUSD was climbing up and up at the end of last year, even after hitting significant market tops going back to 1990, it still kept on going up. The reason for this is that the interest rate in Australia is very favourable compared to that in the US - which means swap profits for the institutions for just holding long trades on AUDUSD, but because they were all playing the same game, they all benefited from a rising AUDUSD too.

 

NFP is difficult to trade because of the high volatility. A sell off on release means that price goes low enough to trigger stops on long trades forcing the price to go further down, at some point profit taking on the shorts kicks in plus new long trades are triggered and price goes rocketing back up again. Normally the first move on NFP is a "fake-out" and it's best to wait an hour or a couple of hours after the release when price has settled down to have a clear idea of the prevailing (and next) direction and trade in that same direction.

 

Fake-outs are much less rare in other news releases and generally the direction which price moves in after the news announcement (and I mean 5, 10 or 15 minutes after) is the direction to trade in. All news items marked in red in FF are generally realiable to trade this way.

[staw]

Hi Guys,

 

Can someone tell me which news releases as per forex factory are accurate. Because NFP is not accurate all times. When the actual numbers are good for USD the USD falls in NFP.

 

SO please tell me which other big moving news releases have a consistent effect on a particular currency.

 

Thanks,

 

Indoshare

 

I think it depends very much on "expectation" and "deviation" from that expectation as well as difference in numbers between past news release and current... So it will never always be like "if the news is positive for dollar then the dollar will rise"... It is always a relation in these factors that I've named(as well as others)....

I would recommend you to read "News Profiteer" by Henry Liu to get some understanding of this subject. You can find this book here on II.

/regards;

[mtuppers]

well, what i know is sometime news are important. as other times traders(big players) do not think news is that important. or I should said is US still is control the forex market. like even nowadays US news are better, however, the dollar is still weak.