Comments and forex-analytics from FBS Brokerage Company

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Westpac: bearish on euro in the medium term

 

Analysts at Westpac Bank believe that the elections turmoil in the Netherlands, France and Greece will make the single currency breach its trading range to the downside and make it start to “unravel quietly, certainly through the first week of May.”

 

According to the bank, the current band EUR/USD is trapped in is “almost frustrating”. The specialists say that it seems that “here is a barrier, some sort of physical option structure in the market that's limiting downside through the $1.30 level.” However, euro shorts will mount and once the bears push the pair down through $1.31 and $1.30, downside momentum for EUR/USD will significantly increase. Westpac says that the possibility of euro’s slide to the levels around $1.25 in the second quarter is rather strong.

 

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GBP/USD down on UK recession

 

The Great-Britain has slid into a double-dip recession according to today’s GDP data release. The preliminary GDP in Q1 unexpectedly shrank 0.2% vs. a 0.1% gain expected and a 0.3% contraction in Q4. In the same tone, index of services also missed the expectations, rising 0.2% in Feb. vs. a 0.6% growth estimated.

 

“Abandoning deficit reduction measures would only make UK situation worse. Conditions are very tough and recovery is taking longer than had been envisaged”, George Osbourne said.

 

The Public Sector Net Borrowing, released yesterday, grew to 15.9 billion pounds in March vs. a 15.0 billion forecast and 9.9 billion in February. However, the U.K. inflation surprisingly accelerated in March for the first time in six months.

 

The GBP/USD cross fell on GDP data to $1.6086. The sterling had been rising for 8 consecutive days and reached $1.6163, the highest since Nov. 2011.

 

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USD/CAD: technical updates

 

US dollar keeps losing versus its Canadian counterpart. USD/CAD approached the lower border of the range between 0.9840 and 1.0050 within which it has been trading since the end of January.

 

The pair has tested today the levels below 0.9864 (April 17 minimum). If this support fails to contain the bearish pressure, US dollar will be heading down to 0.9800. Analysts at RBS think that USD/CAD’s fair value is situated at 0.93. However, for now American currency returned closely to the opening level, so we see something close to doji on the daily chart.

 

Analysts at Commerzbank say that if USD/CAD closes today below 0.9842, it will become vulnerable for a slide to 0.9786 (minimum of the middle of September) and then to 0.9726 (end of August low). For the outlook to improve US currency should go above 1.0052. It’s better to wait for the pair’s advance above this week's high of 0.9980 to start thinking about longs.

 

The Bank of Canada’s Governor Mark Carney said yesterday that “some modest removal of monetary stimulus may become appropriate; interest rates are exceptionally low, won't always be the case”. Such comments make investors expect the central bank to take a more hawkish approach and start removing stimulus which is positive for CAD.

 

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USD/CHF: technical comments

 

The greenback keeps trading within short-term downtrend versus its Swiss counterpart.

 

Ichimoku H4 chart hints at bearish outlook (Kijun-sen and Tenkan-sen are declining with the former lying above the latter). As a result, USD/CHF may decline to 0.9050, the lower line of the triangle formation. There may be some support for the pair in the 0.9080/70 zone (trend line supports, maximums of late March, early April).

 

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If the pair breaks below psychological level of 0.9000, the decline from 0.9594 (January 9 maximum) will likely resume and US dollar may slide to 0.8628 (38.2% retracement of the advance made in the second half of 2011). If USD/CHF overcomes 0.9251 (April 16 maximum), the decline from 0.9594 may be considered over and the pair will get chance to return to this level.

 

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What to expect from FOMC?

 

Money market investors will look at the Federal Reserve's statement, forecasts and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's press conference on Wednesday to assess the prospects for the U.S. economy.

 

Most analysts don’t forecast any significant changes in monetary policy; however, Ben Bernanke is a well-known wild card. The Fed's fund rate is expected to be kept at 0.00%-0.25% at least until late-2014 and asset purchases program to remain steady at $600 billion. The “Operation Twist”, aimed to lower borrowing costs and to stimulate economic growth, is expiring in June. While the most economists expect the Fed to quit the program in June, there are some who say the program will be extended in June.

 

Goldman Sachs analysts believe the Fed will announce its decision on further QE today.

 

According to Nomura and Barclays Capital analysts, despite Bernanke’s insistence that QE3 remains on the table, the Fed will become more hawkish on the back of U.S. economic improvement.

 

However, the U.S. posted rather negative reports lately (manufacturing indices, housing market data), so the Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke may give a few more dovish comments on the U.S. and global economy. Most analysts expect the 2012 forecast for the unemployment rate to be revised down from the Fed's January estimate of 8.2% to 8.5%. According to Wells Fargo analysts, in 2012 GDP is expected to come in at 2.2% to 2.5%.

 

Today Core Durable Goods Orders (the de-facto gauge of business investment) fell by 1.1% in March vs. 1.8% rise in February.

 

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Photo: Getty Images

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April 26: main economic events

 

• New Zealand: As expected, the Reserve Bank today left the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 2.5% calling this level of the borrowing costs appropriate for the moment. The RBNZ Governor Alan Bollard claimed that “domestic economy is showing signs of recovery” noting though that “the global outlook remains of concern.” Bollard said that if kiwi remains strong with all things equal, “the Bank would need to reassess the outlook for monetary policy settings”.

 

Coming soon

 

• Euro zone: Italian T-bill auction. Demand for euro was limited on the back of political concerns which may derail the efforts to stem the region’s debt woes.

 

• U.S.:

 

- The Fed’s Chairman Ben Bernanke said yesterday that the central bank is prepared to “do more” if necessary to spur the economy, boosting demand for higher-yielding assets. The FOMC upgraded its forecasts for growth and unemployment this year while repeating their view that borrowing costs are likely to remain “exceptionally low” at least through late 2014.

 

- Unemployment Claims are forecasted to increase by 378K this week vs. 386K the previous week. U.S. Pending Home Sales in March may increase by 1.4% vs. a 0.5% decline in February. U.S. 7-year note auction is scheduled.

 

S&P500 was 1.4% up yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index of shares +0.3% today.

 

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Image from stephansmithfx.com

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USD/JPY: any trade ahead of the BOJ?

 

The greenback’s trading on the downside versus Japanese yen today as lower USD/CNY made traders selling US dollar versus all of its Asian peers.

 

In addition, USD/JPY also got under pressure due to the corporate flows ahead of the period of Japanese national holidays known as the Golden Week (Japanese Golden Week in 2012 is based on two separate holidays of 3 and 4 days. The first is from Saturday, April 28 through to Monday, April 30 and then Thursday, May 3 through to Sunday, May 6).

 

At the same time, the moves of the pair seem to be limited as the market awaits tomorrow’s decision of the Bank of Japan. Investors expect more easing from the BOJ. If the central bank does more QE, that should be negative for the yen. If it doesn’t – well, it better be ready to the renewed strength of its national currency, it’s as simple as that.

 

From the technical point of view, note yesterday’s doji candle on the daily chart. If US currency breaks above the short-term trend resistance line, one may go long. If it doesn’t, then USD/JPY may slide to the lower border of the channel in 80 yen area, though the potential decline will be limited by the hopes about the BOJ.

 

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NZD up on RBNZ’s comments

 

The New Zealand dollar strengthened today against its major peers after a not as dovish as expected RBNZ's policy statement.

 

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand today left the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 2.5% calling this level of the borrowing costs appropriate for the moment. The RBNZ Governor Alan Bollard claimed that “domestic economy is showing signs of recovery” noting though that “the global outlook remains of concern.” Bollard said that if kiwi remains strong with all things equal, “the Bank would need to reassess the outlook for monetary policy settings”.

 

RBC: Markets were clearly unimpressed by the threat.

 

ANZ: We expect the RBNZ to take every opportunity to "talk down" the NZD. However, we think the main drivers of recent NZD price action are global rather than local.

 

Analysts expect the kiwi to climb to $0.8200 after today’s growth to $0.8172. The cross has been trading sideways in a range $0.8060-$0.8280 since early March. The resistance for NZD/USD lies at $0.8188 (high Apr.25), $0.8198 (high Apr.23) and $0.8230 (55-day MA), while the support – at $0.8099 (100-day MA), $0.8078 (200-day MA), $0.8058 (low Mar.22) and $0.8040 (low Jan.23).

 

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Citigroup: euro's correlated with...

 

According to analysts at Citigroup, there is a rough correlation between the euro and the foreign buying of euro zone’s debt. In the periods of euro’s strength, foreign investors are buying euro zone bonds, and when the euro weakens as it did late in 2011, foreign investors sell.

 

Analysts believe the support of investors due to euro’s advance in early 2012 has probably softened the common currency’s drop these days, but the effect won’t last long.

 

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Analysts still believe in euro

 

A bunch of negative signals came from the euro zone recently: lackluster economic reports, Dutch political crisis, and uncertainty, caused by French elections. However, the common currency keeps trading in a $1.30-$1.34 range, puzzling the investors.

 

Commerzbank: We are observing a new wave of a debt crisis, coming from Spain. However, the EUR/USD cross remains stable, and the situation is not expected to change in the nearest future.

 

Bank of New York Mellon: Spain now requires not the financial aid itself, but the investors’ confidence that the firewall is big enough just in case the situation worsens.

 

Barclays Capital: The EUR/USD is not expected to plummet, because the greenback’s growth is limited by the Fed’s current policy. The U.S. interest rate remains at a zero-bound level at least until mid-2014.

 

Citigroup: Later this year the ECB may extend the LTRO program and cut interest rates. The common currency weakens to $1.30 in 6 months and to $1.25 in a year.

 

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TD Securities: bearish on AUD/CAD

 

Analysts at TD Securities claim that the downtrend within which Australian dollar is currently trading versus its US counterpart remains strong. In their view, AUD/CAD will drift down to the parity and then to 0.9900.

 

Support for the pair lies at 1.0155 (2012 minimum) and 1.0100 (long-term trend support). The specialists see the possibility of small corrections within the bearish trend, but the pair will be declining: “We rather think strongly trending oscillator signals will keep counter-trend rallies to a minimum and retain focus on the downside. Stay bearish while the 1.03 resistance remains intact.”

 

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Analysts: outlook for GBP/USD

 

The preliminary GDP in Q1 unexpectedly shrank 0.2% vs. a 0.1% gain expected and a 0.3% contraction in Q4, meaning the Great-Britain has slid into a double-dip recession, according to yesterday’s release. Analysts split over the prospects of the sterling, despite the negative data.

 

UBS's analysts see the pair at $1.6200 in the following three months. They expect the yesterday’s GDP report to be revised soon, while the Britain’s PMI data look rather optimistic. In their view, the MPC is ready to tighten its monetary policy, so the pound has reasons for growth.

 

Technical analysts at Danske Bank recommend going long onthe sterling at the current levels, for a $1.6335 objective and with a stop at $1.6075. However, Commerzbank strategists advise to go short on the pound at $1.6130, with a stop over $1.6185 and targeting at $1.5900.

 

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UBS: currency forecasts updated

 

EUR/USD 1-month $1.30, 3-month $1.25;

 

GBP/USD 1-month $1.62, 3-month $1.62;

 

EUR/GBP 1-month 0.80, 3-month 0.77;

 

NZD/USD 1-month $0.82, 3-month $0.78.

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US jobless claims: what’s behind the figures?

 

US Labor Department announced today that initial jobless claims fell by 1K last week to a seasonally adjusted 388K in the week ended April 21. The reading was though higher than the forecast.

 

It’s necessary to note one thing: the previous print (for the week ended April 14) was revised from 386K to 389K (the highest level since the first week of January). So the comments are positive, the newsmakers got what they wanted – the improvement. At the same time, this is the 10th week in a row of misses to the weaker side and the 16th of the last 18. The average of new claims over the past month rose by 6,250 to 381K.

 

Some justified April increase in claims by the spring break when school workers can file for temporary benefits. However, fewer experts are so sure now. Recent data wasn’t encouraging enough and there are significant risks from Europe. There’s also talk that the government’s seasonally adjustments may have exaggerated the drop in claims at the beginning of the year.

 

The picture will become clearer next Friday with the release of April employment report.

 

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An Army veteran chats with representatives from Southwest Airlines at the Hiring our Heroes job fair for U.S. military vets and their spouses last month. (E. Jason Wambsgans/Chicago Tribune) (E. Jason Wambsgans )

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Yen up after BoJ added stimulus

 

The yen dropped against its major counterparts after the Bank of Japan increased the size of the asset buying program by 5 trillion yen additional in JGB whilst reducing the fixed-rate program by 5 trillion. As widely expected, the BOJ maintained the key interest rate at a 0-0.1% level.

 

After the BoJ announcement the USD/JPY cross sky-rocketed to 81.35 yen, but soon declined to 80.81. While some analysts seem to be unimpressed by the QE measures, the BoJ may be starting to lose its fight to devalue the yen through more easing given the post-reaction of the currency.

 

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Analysts: comments on EUR/USD

 

The common currency managed to recoup losses due to the Italian bond auction after S&P downgraded Spain’s credit rating.

 

Standard & Poor's cut Spain's rating to BBB-plus from A on Thursday and gave it a negative outlook, warning it expects the government's budget deficit to deteriorate even more than previously thought due to economic contraction. S&P expects Spain's GDP to contract by 1.5% in 2012 and 0.5% in 2013.

 

Italian 10-year borrowing costs climbed to 5.84% on Friday (60 b.p above a comparable bond sale in March) against the backdrop of Spain’s downgrade. However, in general, the bond auction was rather successful: the country sold 5.95 billion euros of bonds, near the top of a planned issue range of between 3.75-6.25 billion euros.

 

HSBC: We are a bit surprised at the euro's resilience but part of the explanation is that the currency channel isn't the cleanest way to express discomfort with the periphery. If you don't like Spain you sell their bonds and buy German Bunds so the currency impact is muted.

 

BBH: $1.3250 area is providing near-term resistance for EUR/USD. We feel the euro should be sold into rallies ahead of next week’s key economic data and political events, including PMIs, ECB meeting, and the ongoing political cycle.

 

Analysts at Danske Bank recommend selling the EUR/USD cross at current levels targeting at $1.3145 and with a stop at $1.3245, while Commerzbank suggests going short at $1.3205 with a stop at 1.3315. UBS's analysts believe the pair will be at $1.30 for the next month and at $1.25 in the next 3 months.

 

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U.S. GDP came below expectations

 

The greenback fell against the euro and the yen after the report showed the U.S. economy grew less than expected in the first quarter 2012.

 

The estimated U.S. GDP growth in Q1 2012 is 2.2% vs. 2.6% forecasted and 3.0% in the previous quarter. However, the fairly strong personal consumption offsets things a bit (2.9% increase vs. 2.1% in Q4).

 

BNP Paribas: Consumers are remarkably stable and steady. We’ll need to see final demand continue to improve. We’re still in muddling- along territory.

 

In January 2012 the Fed lowered its forecasts for the U.S. economic growth to 2.2-2.7% in 2012 and to 2.8-3.2% in 2013. The FOMC “expects economic growth to remain moderate over coming quarters and then to pick up gradually,” it said in an April 25 statement.

 

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New Zealand: mixed data released

 

Statistics New Zealand reported on Monday that the trade surplus declined in March to NZ$134 million against NZ$202 million in February and NZ$445 million surplus expected. The decline is caused by an 8.7% fall in the value of exports; meanwhile, imports rose 1.2%

 

Building consents improved 19.8% in March after a 6.2% fall in February. NBNZ Business Confidence index increased to 35.8 in April against 33.8 in March, indicating strengthening business optimism.

 

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has consistently warned that the high national currency hurts the tradable sector and puts a downward pressure on economic activity. Bank officials remarked last week that if the NZD remains high the economy may to look towards a monetary policy easing.

 

Nomura: The RBNZ has stepped up its rhetoric on the level of the NZD. We think this is just another attempt to talk the currency lower. We doubt any FX intervention will take place. We continue to look for opportunities to enter NZD long positions.

 

The NZD/USD continues a sideways movement in a $0.8060-0.8280 channel since March 2012.

 

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USD/JPY down on recent data

 

The greenback touched a two-month low versus the yen today due to the disappointing U.S. GDP report, released on Friday. The estimated GDP growth in Q1 was 2.2% vs. 3.0% in the previous quarter.

 

Economists expect the interest rates to remain zero-bound at least through late 2014. The U.S. slowdown also revived speculation that the Fed may launch another QE or a bond-buying program.

 

Societe Generale: A flavor of QE is back in the air, driving the USD lower and risky assets higher.

 

On Tuesday watch out for the April ISM Manufacturing PMI index; in March the index was strong enough (53.4). The Non-Farm Payrolls (release on Friday) are forecasted to grow by 176K in April.

 

BNP Paribas: If we do get a weak ISM and a 125K increase in payrolls, the dollar weakness is going to continue.

 

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Commerzbank: trading USD/JPY

 

Early Monday the USD/JPY dropped to 80.10 yen (50% retracement of the early 2012 growth and the bottom of the daily Ichimoku cloud).

 

According to analysts at Commerzbank, the breach of a 79.15 support (61.8% retracement) may let the dollar fall towards 78.34 yen (200-day MA). Resistance lies at 81.33, 82.28 (23.6% retracement), 82.51 (top of the cloud), 84.17 (high March 15).

 

Strategists recommend holding longs at 80.63., with a stop at 79.90 and covering 85.50. In a shorter term a correction to 79.15 is expected, but the long term targets lie at 83.80 and 85.50.

 

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Analysts: trading GBP/USD

 

GBP/USD reached $1.6300 (the highest since Aug. 31) on Monday after strengthening for an 11 consequent days. However, the pair is overbought and has entered a declining phase, breaching below the opening price at $1.6274.

 

Most analysts are bullish on the cable’s prospects these days. For example, strategists at Danske Bank advice to buy the pair for a revised $1.6380 objective and with a stop at $1.6160. Commerzbank suggests to buy with a stop $1.6165 and a $1.6425 target. UBS strategists believe the cable will remain at $1.6200 for the next 1 to 3 months.

 

Recent report showed U.K. house prices increased in April for a second month. Today will be released the core personal consumption expenditure price index and personal income figures in the U.S. The U.K. Manufacturing PMI will be announced tomorrow morning and forecasts point out to a slight decrease from 52.1 to 51.4.

 

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USD/CAD up after GDP

 

The Canadian dollar drops against the greenback after the unexpected contraction of nation’s GDP, weakening the expectations for the interest rate hike from current 1.0%.

 

Canada’s gross domestic product shrank by 0.2% in February vs. 0.2% growth expected and 0.1% growth in January. Moreover, Raw Materials Price Index (RMPI) declined 1.6% vs. 0.4% forecasted largely because of mineral fuels. Industrial Product Price Index (IPPI) edged up 0.2% in March, led by higher prices for petroleum and coal products.

 

Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Timothy Lane said on Monday it may become appropriate to withdraw some of the considerable monetary policy stimulus the bank is providing. Lane’s words are echoing the recent remarks of the BoC Governor Mark Carney.

 

The USD/CAD pair strengthened to C$0.9871. Resistance lies at $0.9880 (high Apr.25), $0.9928 (21-day MA) and $1.0012 (high Apr.17), while support - at 0.9800 (low Apr.27), 0.9766 (low Sep.19) and 0.9755 (low Sep.1).

 

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Aussie falls on RBA rate cuts

 

The Australian dollar fell against its major counterparts after Reserve Bank of Australia unexpectedly cut its main cash rate by 50 bps to 3.75%. Market expected the bank to be less dovish and to lower rates by 25 bps to 4.0%.

 

According to bank officials, for the next two years the inflation will be lower than forecasted earlier but still within RBA's target range of 2-3%. The housing market remains subdued (Q1 House Price Index fell -1.1% vs. 0.4% decline forecasted).

 

AMP Capital Investors: A 25 bps cut would be meaningless, whereas a 50 bps move will lead to decent reduction in borrowing costs. It probably needs a couple more cuts going forward; we will probably see cash rates down to 3.25% by the year end.

 

RBC Caital Markets: It leaves the door open for further easing. Growth was obviously lower than they expected and their inflation forecast will be marked lower on Friday.

 

In a year-over-year comparison Australian RBA Commodity Index decreased 4.2% in April, following a 2.7% rise in March. Manufacturing PMI in China, Australia’s important trade partner, has disappointed investors after falling to 53.3 vs. 53.6 expected.

 

AUD/USD fell to $1.0312 on today’s negative data. However, some analysts still believe the AUD dip presents a buying opportunity. Support for the cross lies at 1.0300 (strong psychological support) and 1.0246 (low April 24) levels, while resistance - at 1.0346 (21-day MA), 1.0357 (200-day MA) and 1.0445 (100-day MA).

 

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Cable drops on PMI data

 

According to the data released today, U.K. Manufacturing PMI declined in April to 50.5 compared with the consensus forecast 51.4.

 

Everyone who follows the issue remembers how March data positively surprised the markets with 51.9 reading (the index is above 50, so the industry expands). Economists explain the slowdown with a sharp decline in export demand. The easing of new orders from the US and Asia is worrying as a potential risk to continued growth, as these have helped to balance out weaker demand in recent months.

 

USD/GBP has slipped to the 1.6200 level after demonstrating an impressive growth as of late. The next support for the cable lies at 1.6153 (low Apr.27) and 1.6082 (low Apr.25). On the upside, a break above 1.6298 (Upper Bollinger) would bring 1.6304 (high Apr.30) and then 1.6335 (high Aug.31).

 

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Analysts: how to trade EUR/GBP?

 

The oversold EUR/GBP strengthened to the 0.8170 area after U.K. Manufacturing PMI came out below expectations. The indicator dropped from 51.9 (revised from 52.1) in March to 50.5 (consensus of 51.5).

 

Analysts point to resistances for the cross at 0.8170, 0.8215 and 0.8265 (high March 17). On the downside, support lies at 0.8145, 0.8125 and 0.8100.

 

Commerzbank: EUR/GBP is likely to stay below the strong support 0.8220 (low Jan.9)

 

Strategists at Danske Bank recommend selling the cross at current levels for 0.8067 objective and with a stop at 0.8228.

 

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