Comments and forex-analytics from FBS Brokerage Company

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Bernanke and Obama speak

 

Bernanke

 

Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke claimed yesterday that quick deficit reduction may affect US economic recovery and said that the central bank will regard the possible measures to spur growth and hiring at its meeting on September 20-21.

 

Earlier in Jackson Hole Bernanke outlined the tools that the Fed may use. They are quantitative easing and lengthening the duration of securities in its $1.65 trillion Treasury portfolio. Analysts at Barclays Capital believe that this month the Fed will decide to resort to the latter.

 

The Fed’s head said that Obama and Congress should improve the federal government’s finances in the longer term but be careful not to hurt the economy by the fiscal consolidation in the short term. Bernanke didn’t comment on how the American authorities may reach that goal.

 

Obama

 

Another important speech is the one of US President. Barack Obama proposed to Congress the plan to stimulate job’s growth that would inject $447 billion into the economy (nearly 3% of GDP) through infrastructure spending by cutting in half the payroll taxes paid by workers and small-business owners and by providing subsidies to local governments to stem teacher layoffs.

 

Analysts at Capital Economics note that if Obama’s bill passes the Congress it would certainly influence 2012 GDP growth, which they currently expect to be only 2%. Economists at Goldman Sachs think that if enacted in its entirety, this proposal could shift the fiscal impulse in 2012 from -1.1% of GDP to +0.4% of GDP. However, the specialists have serious doubts that the congressmen will manage to agree on any of the multitude of different measures the bill includes.

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G7 may be against Japan’s intervention

 

Japanese new finance minister Jun Azumi promised to tell his Group of Seven counterparts that Japan is ready to act vigorously in currency markets when necessary.

 

Yesterday G7 released statement that the officials of the world’s leading developed countries will “closely consult” each other on currencies. Rintaro Tamaki, Japan’s former vice finance minister who currently occupies the post of deputy secretary-general of OECD, thinks that it means that Japanese intervention has to be done in agreement with the G-7 as opposed to unilaterally.

 

As a result, the specialist claims that Japan may face opposition to further yen sales after acting on its own twice in the past year. Tamaki underlined that one of G7 key principals is that the markets should determine foreign-exchange levels.

 

Japan’s economy is affected by stronger yen: in the second quarter the nation’s GDP fell by 2.1% in comparison with the previous year level.

 

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Commerzbank: comments on USD/CHF

 

The greenback advanced versus Swiss franc getting above the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the decline since December 2011 at 0.8567.

 

Technical analysts at Commerzbank say that US currency may climb higher, to the 200-day MA at 0.8858 where traders may take profits.

 

The specialists claim that resistance for the pair USD/CHF is situated at 0.8850/0.8920 (double Fibonacci retracement and March 2011 minimum), 0.9158 (the 55-week MA) and 0.9340/0.9400 (March 2011 maximums and double Fibonacci retracement). According to the bank, support levels lie at 0.8520/0.8365 (23.6% and 38.2% retracements of US dollar’s September growth).

 

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UBS: time to buy GBP/USD

 

British pound fell versus its US counterpart from yesterday’s maximum at $1.6084 to 2-month minimums at $1.5915/20.

 

However, analysts at UBS think that sterling won’t stay below $1.6000 for long and note that the current levels represent good buying opportunities for GBP/USD. In addition, the bank says that EUR/GBP advance above 0.90 doesn’t seem sustainable and recommends investors to sell the pair.

 

In the current circumstances when the central banks all over the world are keeping loose policy the specialists expect the Bank of England won’t do more stimulus during the next 1-2 months as it will be watching inflation. That, according to UBS, will likely provide pound with significant support.

 

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Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. GBP/USD

 

Weekly GBP/USD

 

Last week British pound survived rather strong decline versus the greenback – the pair GBP/USD opened below the Turning line (2) and fell to the rising Ichimoku Cloud (3) losing about 270 pips. Today sterling has opened already inside Kumo.

 

At the same time, the situation doesn’t look totally bearish: the short-term Tenkan-sen is directed horizontally, the longer-term Kijun-sen (1) is also going sideways. The Lagging Chinkou Span (4) has breached the price chart, though the signal is weak as at the moment of the intersection the price was found below Kumo. The lines of the Cloud are horizontal slightly deviating up.

 

As a result, it’s possible to assume that the prices won’t drop to the lower border of the Cloud, but found support in the area of the previous minimum at $1.5780 hit on July 12.

 

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Daily GBP/USD

 

On the daily chart the picture seems to be more bearish – the trend has turned negative.

 

Both Tenkan-sen (2) and Kijun-sen (1) raced down keeping the “dead cross” in place. The Ichimoku Cloud (3) has turned downwards and keeps widening as the short-term Senkou Span A went sharply down, while the longer-term Senkou Span B is moving sideways.

 

The lines of the indicator will now provide only resistance for the pair. Pound may get support only from July low at $1.5780.

 

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Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. USD/JPY

 

Weekly USD/JPY

 

Once again we have to note that the situation on the weekly USD/JPY chart remains almost the same. The prices keep consolidating between 76 and 78 yen. High demand for yen keeps contrasting with the risk of the Bank of Japan’s interventions.

 

The greenback still lacks support, while resistance is provided by the declining Tenkan-sen and the horizontal Kijun-sen (1) as well as by the descending Ichimoku Cloud (3). The Turning line (2) and the Standard line (1) form the strong “dead cross” (5).

 

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Daily USD/JPY

 

Last Tuesday US dollar has managed to overcome the Turning line (2) that provided US currency with resistance till the end of the week. Today, however, the pair USD/JPY has broken through the Turning line (2).

 

The Standard line went sharply down (1). Senkou Span B (3) remains horizontal, while the other border of Kumo – Senkou Span A – has reversed down widening the range of the bearish Ichimoku Cloud (4).

 

Before another correction the prices will likely dip to the record minimums.

 

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Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. USD/CHF

 

Weekly USD/CHF

 

On the weekly chart the pair USD/CHF has made a very powerful breakthrough rising above resistance of the Turning line (1) and the Standard line (2) and gaining more than 950 pips. The matter is that franc has weakened after Switzerland’s central bank has pegged the national currency to euro.

 

Tenkan-sen (1) reversed up aiming to cross Kijun-sen (2) and form the “golden cross”. The bearish Ichimoku Cloud is narrowing as Senkou Span “A” began growing (4). Resistance for the pair is currently provided only by Kumo.

 

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Daily USD/CHF

 

On the daily chart the trend has finally switched upwards.

 

The prices rebounded from Kijun-sen (1), broke though Tenkan-sen (2) and easily went up through the Ichimoku Cloud. The bullish Cloud itself is rising. The Turning line (2) and the Standard line (1) are pointed up.

 

The outlook for the pair seems to be optimistic. The pair USD/CHF can make some pulls back down, but all in all the pair is likely to keep advancing. The lines of the Indicator will now act as support.

 

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Market’s pricing in potential Greek default

 

The single has slumped versus the greenback and Japanese yen on the talk that German Chancellor Angela Merkel is preparing for Greek default.

 

The pair EUR/JPY hit the lowest level since 2001 at 103.88 yen. The pair EUR/USD dropped to the minimum since February 16 at $1.3498.

 

According to 3 coalition officials, German government is discussing how to support the nation’s banks in case Greece doesn’t fulfill the requirements of the aid package and won’t get the next tranche of bailout payment. Merkel is also meeting European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso today to discuss the possible solutions of the euro zone’s debt crisis.

 

Greek deficit targets are 17.1 billion euro for 2011 and 14.9 billion euro for 2012. Yesterday the country’s authorities decided to reduce one month’s wages for all elected officials and impose an annual charge on all property for 2 years.

 

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Commerzbank: EUR/JPY will fall to 100 yen

 

Technical analysts at Commerzbank note that the single currency has broken below the uptrend line from 2010 to 2011 at 107.41, 2011 low at 106.20 and 2010 minimum at 105.44 and hit 10-year low at 103.88.

 

The specialists think that EUR/JPY’s decline may continue until the pair drops to the levels in the 100.00 area. In their view, resistance for euro is situated at the previous minimums in the 105.44/106.20 zone.

 

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Bearish forecasts for EUR/USD

 

Royal Bank of Canada: euro has breached the “bearish triangle” getting under $1.4364 and dropped below the uptrend line from June 2010 at $1.3989. According to the specialists, EUR/USD is now poised down to the minimal level since January 17 at $1.3246.

 

Commerzbank: the single currency closed last week below major support levels of the 2010-2011 uptrend. The strategists expect the pair to fall to $1.3428/10 (February minimum and 50% retracement of the advance in 2010-2011). In the longer term EUR/USD will slide to $1.2000. In the near term euro will be capped by resistance at $1.3723/1.3840 (intraday Fibonacci retracements and the July minimum).

 

Scotia Capital: EUR/USD may hit levels between $1.30 and $1.35 any time. However, the analysts advise investors avoid trading the pair turning to USD/JPY and selling US dollars versus Japanese yen.

 

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Deutsche Bank: ECB rate forecast

 

Analysts at Deutsche Bank believe that the European Central Bank will leave its benchmark rate at 1% until the end of the year.

 

Then they expect the ECB to cut the borrowing costs in December by 50 basis points in line with lowered growth and inflation forecasts.

 

The specialists note that there will be a lot of political pressure in November as Mario Draghi takes office as the ECB President after Jean-Claude Trichet. In their view, the ECB will take a long pause after reducing rates in December.

 

At the same time, the bank warns that one shouldn’t entirely rule out the possibility of October rate cut.

 

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UBS: bullish outlook for US dollar

 

Analysts at UBS note that despite US credit downgrade, the greenback has become the ultimate safe haven as other traditional refuges – Japanese yen and Swiss franc – are undermined by the efforts of Japan and Switzerland to weaken their national currencies.

 

The specialists underline that the European Central Bank and the Bank of England are seen easing their monetary policies. As a result, UBS claims that unless the Federal Reserve starts the third round of quantitative easing US dollar will keep strengthening against euro and pound.

 

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Major banks’ forecasts for euro

 

Some major banks are revising downwards their forecasts for the single currency versus the greenback as the euro zone’s debt crisis deepens and the pair EUR/USD hit yesterday 7-month minimum in the $1.3500 area. For example, UBS is reviewing its current estimate of euro’s rate by the end of the year at $1.35 and J.P. Morgan – the one at $1.36.

 

However, other banks think that it’s still too early to make significant changes to the outlook.

 

Deutsche Bank is already quite bearish on the European currency expecting it to fall to $1.30 by the end of 2011. Barclays Capital keeps its $1.46 year-end view, though its representatives claim that the bank is always considering revisions. HSBC is looking forward to $1.44 by the end of the year and points out that from the fundamental point of view nothing has changed as the market is perfectly aware of the seriousness of European debt issues.

 

The most bullish view on euro’s prospects has Goldman Sachs which reiterated EUR/USD forecast at $1.50 by the end of March. Bank of America-Merrill Lynch names $1.45 as the target for the end of 2011, Credit Suisse sticks to $1.40 in 3 months, though conceding the possibility of the lower levels in the near term.

 

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Danske Bank: trading recommendations on USD/CHF

 

Technical analysts at Danske Bank claim that though the greenback is showing sharp rebound versus Swiss franc it remains within the longer-term bearish channel.

 

The specialists note that USD/CHF is facing resistance at 0.8848 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from 2010 maximum of 1.1730 to the all-time low of 0.7067), 0.8947 (May 13 maximum) and 0.9370/0.9399 (May 7 maximum and 50% Fibonacci retracement). In their view, the pair may dip to 0.7711 (September 2 minimum) and retest the record minimum at 0.7067.

 

According to the bank, it’s necessary to sell dollars versus francs at 0.9370/0.9399 stopping above 0.9784 or 1.0067.

 

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J.P. Morgan, UniCredit warn about pound’s weakness

 

Currency strategists at J.P. Morgan note that investors are generally negative on sterling. It’s possible to give several reasons for that:

 

- UK weak economic outlook (although annual inflation rose from 4.4% in July to 4.5% in August, the risk of double-dip recession isn’t ruled out; the housing market remains in trouble);

 

- The looming possibility of more quantitative easing by the Bank of England (finance minister George Osborne claimed that he object’t against additional bond purchases);

 

- The risk of UK financial institutions’ credit rating downgrade (British banks are exposed to Greece and the euro-zone banking community). The nation’s banks are on review of Moody's Investors Service since May.

 

As a result, sterling is seen falling like euro has been doing so far rather than getting support as a safe haven like the greenback. Strategists at UniCredit expect GBP/USD to slide to $1.55.

 

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Standard Bank: sell EUR/JPY

 

Currency strategists at Standard Bank advise investors to sell the single currency versus Japanese yen at 104.90 targeting 103.50 and 100.40. The specialists recommend placing stops at 108.10.

 

The pair EUR/JPY lost 9.2% during the past 3 months hitting yesterday 10-year minimum at 103.88.

 

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UBS: AUD/USD will fall to $1.0111

 

Technical analysts at UBS note that Australian dollar fell versus the greenback from the recent maximums in the $1.0700 area and breached 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the advance from August 8 to September 1 at $1.0250. The specialists believe that the pair AUD/USD is on its way down to $1.0111.

 

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Credit Suisse, BarCap: the SNB's peg will spur inflation

 

Analysts at Credit Suisse and Barclays Capital warn that Swiss National Bank’s decision to peg franc to euro threats to flood the nation’s financial system with cash spurring inflation. As a result, the central bank won’t fulfill its goal of price stability.

 

The SNB has also resorted to such policy in the 1978 when it set the ceiling for franc versus Deutsche mark. That led to a decade of surging inflation – annual price growth jumped from 1% that year to 7.5% by the middle of 1981. In addition, there was a real-estate bubble in the 1980s – in 4 years after the peg was announced the costs of rental apartments bounced by 52%.

 

Economists at the University of Zurich expect inflation to break above the SNB’s 2% limit during the next 3 years even if Swiss economic growth stumbles.

 

In August Switzerland’s CPI added 0.2% from the levels of the previous year. By the end of August SNB’s foreign-currency holdings reached the record maximum of 253.4 billion francs ($305.1 billion) that’s about a half of the nation’s GDP.

 

The SNB is now focusing on the exchange rate than on inflation. As the central bank’s head Philipp Hildebrand said, Swiss policy makers have started “a challenging journey” with possible “very high” costs.

 

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Commerzbank: comments on USD/CAD

 

Technical analysts at Commerzbank note that the greenback’s decline versus its Canadian counterpart from the parity levels was contained by the 55- and 200-day MAs in the 0.9783/21 region.

 

The specialists believe that the fact that US dollar managed to find support at those levels means that the minimums in the 0.9400 zone hit at the end of July will remain the long-term lows.

 

According to the bank, resistance levels for USD/CAD are situated at 1.0042 and 1.0058 (January 31 maximum). If the pair overcomes the latter level and closes above it fir 2 times in New York, it will be poised up to 1.0109/1.0139.

 

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The ECB will provide euro zone banks will dollar liquidity

 

The single currency rose this week versus the greenback after the European Central Bank announced that it will lend US dollars to euro-zone banks in a series of three-month loans.

 

The ECB is going to join efforts with the Federal Reserve and other central banks to conduct three separate dollar liquidity operations on October 12, November 9 and December 7 to ensure lenders have enough of the currency through the end of the year. This would add to the central bank’s regular 7-day dollar offerings and will be fixed-rate tenders with full allotment.

 

Analysts at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group think that European banks are lacking liquidity because people don’t trust the economic policy structure in Europe. In their view, the dollar-swap will help to improve the situation, but still won’t be enough.

 

Today is the meeting of the EU finance ministers in Poland. US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner will also be attending the event. The ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet urged euro-area governments to act to stop the crisis.

 

The pair EUR/USD rose from 7-month minimum at $1.3495 hit on September 12 to the levels above $1.3800. At the same time many experts say that it would be hard for euro to get back to $1.40.

 

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Commerzbank: comments on EUR/USD

 

Technical analysts at Commerzbank note that euro’s upward correction versus the greenback from $1.3595 was greater when they have expected. In their view, EUR/USD faces resistance ahead of $1.4022/35 (the 200-week and the 200-day MAs) and won’t be able to overcome it.

 

The specialists reiterate that the longer-term outlook for the single currency is negative: the pair is seen falling to $1.3428/10 (February minimum and 50% retracement of the advance from 2010 to 2011) and then $1.20.

 

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Credit Agricole reduced USD/JPY forecast

 

Analysts at Credit Agricole lowered their forecast for the greenback versus Japanese yen by the end of the year from 90 to 80 yen and from 102 to 85 yen by the end of 2012.

 

The specialists note that there are 2 factors strengthening yen: firstly, its status of the safe haven and, secondly, US yield advantage over Japan has narrowed during the recent months. Credit Agricole underlines that the Swiss National Bank’s decision to peg franc to euro increases the attractiveness of Japanese currency. According to the bank, there is little chance that significant easing in risk aversion and/or better US economic data.

 

The pair USD/JPY keeps trading in the narrow range between 76 and 77.85 yen staying close to the record minimum at 75.94 yen.

 

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FX Concepts about the situation in the euro area

 

John Taylor, the head of the world’s largest currency hedge fund FX Concepts, believes that the single currency has to be restructured as the euro zone nations seem unable to coordinate their policy, while the continuous coherent action is what is needed to overcome the region’s debt crisis.

 

In his view, the ECB liquidity plan won’t solve any of the European major problems.

 

Taylor claims that there’s a mixture of a very unpleasant things in the euro area – a “horrific cocktail” – that consists of monetary restraint, tightness and fiscal austerity.

 

The specialist says that Greece ought not to leave the monetary union. In his opinion the nation is getting pushed out of the currency bloc but the policymakers do nothing to stop that process.

 

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RBC: forecasts for USD/CAD

 

Currency strategists at RBC Capital Markets believe that the greenback’s upward potential versus its Canadian counterpart in the medium term is limited as there’s no great demand for US currency.

 

The specialists note that loonie seem to be attractive for investors on the back of European debt crisis and easing policies conducted by the most of the developed nations’ central banks. In their view, in the current circumstances Canadian dollar is perceived as the hard currency that is widely traded all over the world and may serve as a good store of value.

 

The bank underlines that loonie was one of the worst performers June 2010 showing better results only against US dollar, so this may eventually help CAD strengthen versus other G10 currencies.

 

According to the bank, the pair will finish 2011 at 1.01, the first quarter of the next year at 1.00 and end 2012 at 0.98.

 

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Credit Agricole corrected EUR/USD forecasts

 

Analysts at Credit Agricole continue being bearish on the prospects of the single currency versus the greenback.

 

Never the less, the specialists revised their forecast for EUR/USD by the end of the year a bit higher from $1.3000 to $1.3700. Such change of the outlook reflects the expectations that the period of US economic weakness will last longer than it was thought before and that the Federal Reserve will further loosen its policy, though not in the form of the third round of quantitative easing.

 

The bank has cut 2012 euro zone’s growth forecast as well from 1.6% to 1.1%, while the growth in the second half of this year is seen as minimal. The ECB is likely pause its tightening cycle.

 

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