Comments and forex-analytics from FBS Brokerage Company

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MPC unanimously voted to keep rates at 0.5%

 

According to the minutes of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee August meeting released today, the 9-member MPC unanimously voted to leave the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.5%.

 

The two hawks – the BoE’s chief economist Spencer Dale and the external policymaker Martin Weale – abandoned their calls for the rate hike.

 

It’s also necessary to note that the odds of the second bout of quantitative easing in the UK have strengthened. This time only Adam Posen repeated his proposition to raise the QE program by 50 billion pounds to 250 billion pounds, several other members seems to consider the idea.

 

The debt crisis in the euro area, US economic slowdown and UK's own problems persuaded the committee that inflation would fall to its 2% target without the increase of the borrowing costs. The pace of British CPI growth rose from 4.2% in June to 4.4% in July.

 

Rabobank International notes that the minutes were clearly dovish, though the BoE Governor Mervyn King had already indicated earlier that central bank could remain on hold until 2012.

 

Currency strategists at Credit Suisse believe that if cyclical indicators deteriorate during the next few weeks, there will be likely more votes for QE in September.

 

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BBH: USD/CAD will keep declining

 

The greenback gained nearly 6.5% versus Canadian dollar after it hit the 4-year minimum in the 0.9400 area at the end of June and tested on August 9 the levels above the parity for the time since February. Then, however, US dollar weakened to the 0.9830 zone erasing about a third of its advance.

 

Analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman claim that the pair USD/CAD may decline more. In their view, in the coming days US dollar may fall to 0.9700 and 0.9640 versus its Canadian counterpart.

 

The specialists note that Canadian dollar strengthened due to the revival of the equity markets, in particular, US S&P 500 (CAD’s one-month correlation coefficient with the benchmark American stocks index reached 0.89). In addition, the price of the crude oil, Canada’s largest export, has also risen supporting the nation’s currency (one-month correlation coefficient is at 0.45).

 

Strategists at MF Global advise investors to watch loonie on Friday: Canada’s CPI release and the Bank of Canada Governor’s Mark Carney’s and the Finance Minister Jim Flaherty’s speeches on the euro zone’s debt crisis and the US budget deficit will likely make the trade more volatile. Analysts at Royal Bank of Canada believe that the officials will sound more cautious than they did in the middle of July.

 

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BOTMUFJ: comments on EUR/USD

 

The single currency went down versus the greenback from yesterday’s maximum at 1.4518 to the levels in the 1.4400 area.

 

Analysts at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ believe that EUR/USD may fall to Wednesday's minimum at 1.4320. The specialists advised investors watch US economic indicators due at 4:30 and 6:00 pm (GMT+4).

 

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RBC: comments on USD/JPY

 

Analysts at RBC Capital Markets note that despite the fact that the market’s risk sentiment has worsened the greenback has managed to stay within its recent trading range above 76.40 yen.

 

The pair USD/JPY has found support due to the information that Japanese Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Japan agreed to join their efforts and to work as one in order to fight yen’s strength.

 

The specialists note that investors are now cautious of interventions. However, if US dollar doesn’t show significant advance during the next 1-2 days, the market may lose confidence in the intervention pledges and USD/JPY will go to the record minimum at 76.22 yen.

 

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BBH, Commerzbank: comments on EUR/CHF and USD/CHF

 

Analysts at BBH think that all the talk about intervention will keep EUR/CHF between 1.12 and 1.15. Economists at ZKB note that the resistance for euro lies at 1.1555. If the single currency breaks above this level, it will manage to rise to 1.1665, while if it drops below 1.1350 would make it slide to 1.1165.

 

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Currency strategists at Commerzbank think that the Swiss National Bank should act more decisively in order to weaken franc as the increase of liquidity has failed to solve the problem.

 

As for the USD/CHF, the bank believes that the pair currently risks to go down to 0.7802, but if it manages to rise above 0.8034, the greenback will be able to rise to the 55-day MA at 0.8157 and then to the 2011 downtrend line at 0.8184.

 

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EUR/USD: all attention on US inflation data

 

US CPI data are released today at 4:30 pm (GMT+4). If inflation has risen, the odds of the new round of quantitative easing will decline that would be positive for the greenback. If the figures are, on the contrary, lower than projected, the pair EUR/USD may jump higher.

 

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg think that American consumer process gained 0.2% in July after a 0.2% slide in June. The annual inflation rate is seen declining from 3.6% in June to 3.3% last month. The core CPI without food and fuel is expected to add during the year through July 1.7% after rising by 1.6% during 12 months through June.

 

Analysts at BMO Capital Markets think that US inflation is leveling off as energy prices decreased. As the nation’s economic growth isn’t high any strong upward pressure on consumer prices is unlikely.

 

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Citi, Commerzbank, BBH: GBP analysis

 

EUR/GBP

 

The single currency declined from the levels around 0.8800 to the 0.8700 zone. Technical analysts at Commerzbank note that support for EUR/GBP lies at 0.8668/44 (August minimum). The slide below this area will bring euro down to the 55-week MA at 0.8612 and to the 4-year uptrend line at 0.8556. If the pair climbs above 0.8883/86 (late July maximum and current August peaks) it will be able to stabilize and get chance to rise to 0.8977/0.9000.

 

Currency strategists at Citi believe that EUR/GBP may move only a bit down on the fears about the euro zone’s debt crisis as the pound may suffers as well because UK banks have a sizable 14% GDP exposure to weak euro-zone countries, surpassing that of Germany and France, while that the euro zone remains the UK's largest trading partner and exports are seen as a preferred way out of the crisis in the UK.

 

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GBP/USD

 

Analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman believe that British pound is overbought versus the greenback. In their view, GBP/USD may consolidate between 1.6480 and 1.6600.

 

According to Citi, the pair will keep getting support from the fiscal austerity in the UK, though the further deterioration of the economic growth will likely put sterling under negative pressure.

 

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Morgan Stanley: US growth forecast reduced

 

Analysts at Morgan Stanley reduced their forecast global economic growth in 2011 from 4.2% to 3.9% and in 2012 – from 4.5% to 3.8%.

 

As the main reason for the downside revision the specialists cited the debt burdens of developed nations.

 

According to the bank, the policymakers didn’t do enough to contain the euro zone’s debt crisis, while the business and consumer confidence weakened due to the German economic slowdown and the looming threat of the recession in the United States. In addition, the situation is complicated by the fact that many governments have to conduct austerity measures.

 

The bank diminished prediction for G10 nations from 1.9% to 1.5% this year and from 2.4% to 1.5% in 2012.

 

Fiscal tightening will have a negative impact on the demand in the Western world that, in its turn, will affect Chinese economy. Morgan Stanley cut the projections for China’s growth from 9% to 8.7% (in 2012), while Deutsche Bank lowered the forecast from 9.1% to 8.9% (in 2011).

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Pimco: Greece has to dafault to save Spain and Italy

 

Economists at Pacific Investment Management Co., the world’s largest bond fund manager, believe that the European policymakers should allow Greece, Ireland and Portugal default making sure that Italy and Spain will be able to avoid this fate.

 

The specialists note that while the region’s authorities are reluctant to admit the necessity of such desperate step, the situation keeps deteriorating.

 

According to Pimco, Germany, France, the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank have to come up with a huge bailout package available to the entire euro zone, except for Greece, Ireland and Portugal, thus letting these indebted peripheral nations default and making Italy and Spain safe.

 

As French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel rejected at their summit on Tuesday, August 16, the idea of creating the common euro zone bonds and the expansion of the 440 billion-euro ($633 billion) rescue fund, Pimco thinks that the most likely scenario will be that the ECB will keep supporting the problem nations, while it itself will be bailed out by Germany.

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MIG Bank: bullish view on GBP/USD

 

The pair GBP/USD climbed from August 11 minimum at $1.6110 to yesterday’s maximum at $1.6591. Technical analysts at MIG Bank believe that although today sterling has pulled back to the $1.6475 area, the outlook for British currency remains positive.

 

The specialists think that when pound once again overcomes the $1.6476/78 zone, it will gain enough strength to rise to $1.6747. In their view, support for GBP/USD lies at $1.6111.

 

It’s also necessary to note that pound has risen above the long-term trend-line resistance (watch the weekly chart).

 

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Commerzbank: USD/JPY will test the record minimum

 

The greenback keeps failing to jump above 77.00 yen. US currency remains in the dangerous closeness to the record minimum at 76.22 hit on March 16 that’s regarded at the key support level.

 

Technical analysts at Commerzbank believe that USD/JPY will retest this mark today. The specialists say that if the pair goes below there, it will drop to the psychological support at 75.00 and the support line of the downtrend from 2009 to 2011 at 74.23.

 

According to the bank, resistance for US dollar is found at 78.04 (August 1 maximum), 78.45 (July 13 minimum) and 79.16/69 (55-day MA, May and June minimums).

 

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Japan urged G7 for more coordination

 

Japan called on Group of Seven nations to work together to counter market turmoil. It happened after equities fell in Asia hitting consumer and business confidence and worsening the global economic outlook that is already undermined by the debt problems of the developed nations. The main reason of fear is the risk that US economic recovery has stumbled.

 

The nation’s Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda underlined that during the next few weeks G7 has to cooperate very closely. Noda reminded that on August 8 the group’s finance ministers and central bank governors pledged to do all that is needed to ensure financial stability and growth.

 

According to Bloomberg, Japanese Topix index fell today to 2-year minimum; China’s Shanghai Composite Index went down by 1.4%; Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index dropped by 2.4%; South Korea’s Kospi index lost about 6%.

 

The last time G7 nations acted together was in March when they performed joint intervention to calm down volatile yen moves after the nation’s March earthquake.

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RBC: euro zone nations lack cooperation

 

Analysts at RBC Capital Markets note that the euro area faces serious political risks.

 

The specialists note that while European nations are supposed to show strong cooperation and coordination, the latest debates about the Greece’s second bailout indicate the opposite.

 

The matter is that Finland that was reluctant of supporting indebted peripheral countries forced Greece to agree to put up collateral in exchange for a bailout loan. This made other nations – Austria, Slovenia, Slovakia and the Netherlands – demand the same from Greece.

 

As a result, Greece will have to spend scarce money on collateral rather than on getting its house in order, while the process of July deal’s implementation stalled. There’s the risk now that other countries who do not receive collateral may not vote in favor of the loan bailout casting doubts on the survival of the currency bloc.

 

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Morgan Stanley increased yen forecasts

 

Japanese currency is still very strong staying in the area of 76.40 yen per dollar.

 

Analysts at Morgan Stanley argue that by the end of the year yen will climb even higher and rise to the record maximum versus its US counterpart. In their view, the actions of the nation’s monetary authorities won’t manage to change yen’s uptrend.

 

The specialists revised down their forecasts for the pair USD/JPY from 81 to 74 yen and for and EUR/JPY from 110 to 101 yen. According to the bank, yen remains extremely overvalued relative in the longer term.

 

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Citigroup reduced US GDP forecast

 

Analysts at Citigroup lowered US economic growth forecast from 1.7% to 1.6% in 2011 and from 2.7% to 2.15% in 2012. The estimates for the S&P 500 Index’s earnings per share were reduced from $98 to $97 this year and from $105 to $101 next year.

 

The analysts claim that the main reason to cut the outlook for American GDP growth rate was the potential inability of political parties to agree on reducing the budget deficit as well as the fiscal tightening. Citigroup warns that if there’s no agreement, both tax increases and spending cuts larger than expected would be automatically triggered, so that very sharp tightening steps would occur in 2013 and could be sensed in financial market expectations during 2012.

 

Yesterday there was a bunch of negative news in the United States: S&P 500 lost 4.5%, Philadelphia manufacturing PMI dropped to the minimal level since 2009, unemployment claims and consumer prices rose, while existing home sales decreased.

 

Citigroup, however, doesn’t speak about recession. According to the bank, the US is going through weak recovery that won’t be able to gain full force.

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Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. GBP/USD

 

Weekly GBP/USD

 

As it was expected, last week the pair GBP/USD consolidated above the Standard line (1) that is acting as a support.

 

All lines of the Indicator are horizontal (1, 2, 3 and 4).

 

The bullish Ichimoku Cloud (3, 4) though isn’t very wide, keep supporting pound.

 

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Chart. Weekly GBP/USD

 

Daily GBP/USD

 

On the daily chart pound managed to overcome resistance provided by Tenkan-sen (1) and get out of the Ichimoku Cloud. The pair GBP/USD was rising during the first half of the week. Then on Thursday and Friday sterling’s rate went a bit down, though the new week began with the bulls pushing the prices higher.

 

The Turning line (1) and the Standard line (2) rose continuing to move parallel each other holding the “golden cross” in place.

 

At the moment all lines of the Indicator (1, 2, 3 and 4) are going sideways), Tenkan and Kijun are supporting the pair. The rising Ichimoku Cloud has widened up as its upper border – Senkou Span A went higher (3).

 

Sterling is going to consolidate or pulls back to the Turning line (1) and after that British currency is likely to resume growth.

 

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Chart. Daily GBP/USD

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Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. USD/JPY

 

Weekly USD/JPY

 

Last week the pair USD/JPY remained in the area of the record minimums: on the one hand, the demand for Japanese currency as the safe haven remained high due to the continuing risk aversion and, on the other hand, the risk of further Bank of Japan’s interventions held US currency from falling.

 

The greenback doesn’t have any significant support, while resistance to it is provided by the horizontal Tenkan-sen (1) and Kijun-sen (2) as well as by the descending Ichimoku Cloud (3). The Turning line (1) and the Standard line (1) still keep the “dead cross” in place.

 

This week US currency may try to recover to Tenkan-sen (1).

 

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Chart. Weekly USD/JPY

 

Daily USD/JPY

 

During the whole week US dollar was trading within the narrow range: neither bulls, nor bears were decisive enough to push the market in their side.

 

At the same time, the Turning line has gone sharply down (2). As a result, Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen remained within the strong “dead cross” formation. The descending Ichimoku Cloud has widened as Senkou Span A has plunged, while Senkou Span B went down mildly.

 

At the same time, the pair has at last found some support opening above Tenkan. So, this week the bulls may be more active, though any advance of the pair is likely to be limited. It’s necessary to watch with great attention US economic news this week.

 

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Chart. Daily USD/JPY

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Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. USD/CHF

 

Weekly USD/CHF

 

On the weekly chart US dollar is still holding above the Turning line (1) that is acting as a support.

 

At the same time, the downtrend is going on. The Ichimoku Cloud remains bearish. The majority of the lines of the chart are directed down (2, 3 and 4), while only Tenkan-sen has switched to the horizontal mode (1).

 

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Chart. Weekly USD/CHF

 

Daily USD/CHF

 

The Swiss National Bank didn’t manage to achieve the results it was counting on while easing policy and pumping more liquidity at Swiss franc’s market. Never the less, the situation at USD/CHF has slightly improved.

 

The prices, for example, are consolidating above the Standard line (2). In addition, the Turning line (1) has urged up (1) ready to cross Kijun-sen bottom-up (2). Resistance for the rate is provided only by rather narrow Ichimoku Cloud (3, 4).

 

The signal to by dollars will come if the lagging Chinkou Span indicated with green color breaks up the price chart and Kijun and Tenkan form the “golden cross”. At the same time, it’s necessary to note that the horizontal Standard line (2) and Senkou Span B point at the possibility of the rate’s consolidation.

 

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Chart. Daily USD/CHF

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BNP Paribas, BBH: EUR/USD will pull back down

 

The single currency rose versus the greenback from the levels in the $1.4050 area to the $1.4400 zone.

 

However, currency strategists at BNP Paribas believe that EUR/USD will fail to rise above $1.45. In their view, the pair is struck between $1.41 and $1.45. The specialists note that euro will get under negative pressure in case of weak euro-zone data such as PMIs, ZEW and IFO that are released this week.

 

Analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman claim that as the deterioration of the global economic outlook and renewed fears about European banks strengthened investors’ risk aversion and made stock markets slump last week, the demand for riskier currencies such as euro will be low and the pair EUR/USD will fall to $1.4000.

 

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Commerzbank: comments on USD/JPY

 

On Friday the greenback renewed the record minimum against Japanese yen by falling to 75.94. However, the pair USD/JPY managed to jump above the previous lows in the 76.25/30 area and return to the former trading range, reports Commerzbank. The bank specialists expect American currency to stay there during the coming days. In their view, the bias will be slightly positive.

 

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Commerzbank: comments on GBP/USD

 

Technical analysts at Commerzbank note that the pair GBP/USD has climbed from the minimums in the 1.6110 area hit at the beginning of August to last week’s maximum at $1.6617. In their view, pound is now going to consolidate at the current levels during the next few days. On the upside, sterling’s attempts will be limited by the resistance at $1.6617.

 

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TD Securities, ANZ: outlook for NZD

 

RBNZ

 

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's quarterly survey shows that the CPI expectations for the year ahead were 2.94% compared with 3.12% in a similar survey held the previous quarter, while inflation expectations for the next 2 years decreased from 3.00% in the previous survey to 2.86%.

 

Strategists at TD Securities note that during the next 2 years inflation expectations are likely to stay higher than actual inflation. In their view, in September the RBNZ can reverse its emergency 50-basis-points rate cut made in March after a massive earthquake in the nation's second largest city. Then the central bank is expected to stay on hold for several months judging the impact of the overseas economic issues on the outlook for exports and commodity prices.

 

Impact of China’s PMI

 

Analysts at ANZ believe that New Zealand’s currency is supported by the positive preliminary HSBC China Manufacturing PMI data. Investors’ risk sentiment has slightly improved after the Asian stocks performed well.

 

The market players will look for the drivers mainly from the global risk picture. On Wednesday, however, one should watch important 2Q retail sales figures.

 

Technical analysis

 

NZD/USD broke above resistance at $0.8320.

 

According to ANZ specialists, support for kiwi lies at $0.8220. If things go bearish and the pair falls below the psychological level of $0.80, it may drop to the 3-month minimum sliding during the next 2 weeks to its 200-day MA at $0.7868.

 

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NAB: Aussie rose versus the greenback

 

Australian dollar rose today versus its US counterpart from the day’s minimum at $1.0385 to the levels in the $1.0500 area.

 

There are 2 reasons for Aussie’s gains: firstly, the better-than-expected Chinese Manufacturing PMI data that brightened the market’s sentiment and, secondly, comments by the Reserve Bank of Australia's deputy governor, Ric Battellino.

 

The HSBC preliminary PMI went up from 49.3 in July to the 2-month maximum at 49.8 in August.

 

Analysts at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi believe that the figures mean that investors don’t need to be too pessimistic about the growth pace in China.

 

Battellino claimed that inflation remains a big concern for the RBA. The official underlined that the strength of the national currency doesn't warrant intervention by the central bank and in the current situation the attempts to weaken Aussie’s rate would bring no results.

 

Economists at National Australia Bank think that such remarks mean that the central bank will stay on hold on the September 6 meeting, while the fixed-income market has been widely expecting about the possible rate cuts.

 

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Jyske bank recommends buying USD/JPY

 

Currency strategists at Jyske bank advise investors to buy the greenback versus Japanese yen stopping below 75.75 and targeting 79.50 as they think that the pair USD/JPY will move gradually up on the expectations of the Bank of Japan’s interventions.

 

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Charmer Charts: comments on EUR/USD

 

Technical analysts at Charmer Charts note that if the single currency manages to stay above $1.4330/55 versus the greenback, it will manage to rise to 1.4520.

 

The specialists warn, however, that if the pair EUR/USD slides below 1.4330, it will be poised down to 1.4285.

 

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