Comments and forex-analytics from FBS Brokerage Company

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Credit Agricole: negative outlook for EUR/USD

 

Analysts at Credit Agricole claim that the outlook for the single currency versus the greenback this week seems to be negative. As the main reason for the bearish forecast the specialists cited the lingering concerns about woes of euro zone’s periphery.

 

According to the bank, last week the pair EUR/USD managed to recover a bit, though investors still lack confidence in the region. The strategists underlined that there were no positive news to drive euro higher, just the absence of new bad events.

 

Even though there are some factors that may encourage the European currency, investors are to be very cautious, warns Credit Agricole. The analysts expect the tough rhetoric calling on Greece to implement more austerity measures will continue ahead of the disbursement of the next tranche of aid from EU and IMF.

 

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Commerzbank: GBP/USD upward correction has finished

 

British pound went up versus the greenback from last week’s minimums in the 1.6060 area (50% Fibonacci retracement of sterling’s advance this year) rising above 1.6500 on Friday.

 

Technical analysts at Commerzbank think that the pair GBP/USD has reached the target of its upward correction and will reverse downwards in the 1.6480/6520 area (May 11 maximum).

 

According to the bank, below these levels British currency will be poised to 1.5935 and 1.5733 (55-day MA).

 

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RBC: NZD/USD once again renewed maximum

 

New Zealand’s dollar rose today’s morning to $0.8215, the highest level versus its US counterpart since its free float began in 1985.

 

Kiwi was encouraged by the release of the nation’s trade data that showed that trade surplus in April reached the record maximum of 1.113 billion exceeding the 603-million estimate in more than 2 times.

 

Currency strategists at RBC Capital Markets note that after hitting the maximal level, the pair NZD/USD eased down to the levels in the 0.8170 zone. The specialists note that euro is coming under a little bit of pressure that’s weighting on New Zealand’s currency. In their view, NZD/USD will remain supported as the country’s Prime Minister Key confirmed that China expresses interest in buying New Zealand’s bonds. According to RBC, support for the pair is found at 0.8125, while resistance is situated at 0.8220.

 

As for the greenback, analysts at ANZ National Bank think it will keep weakening. The specialists advise to watch US economic data tomorrow that they expect to be quite unfavorable: S&P/Case-Shiller index of property values in 20 cities (released at 1:00 pm GMT) and Institute for Supply Management-Chicago PMI (due at 1:45 pm GMT).

 

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Jyske Bank: EUR/CHF keeps declining

 

The single currency is trading at the record minimum versus Swiss franc in the 1.2130 area after it fell from last week’s maximums around 1.2470.

 

Analysts at Zuercher Kantonalbank think that the pair EUR/CHF will remain under negative pressure in the short term staying today in range between 1.2200 and 1.2100. In their view, any rebounds of euro will be only temporary.

 

Specialists at Jyske Bank think that the pair is poised down to 1.20/19 where a great number of stop losses are concentrated.

 

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BCC revised forecast for UK GDP and BoE rate hikes

 

The British Chambers of Commerce lowered the country’s economic growth forecasts and pushed back its forecast for the Bank of England’s rate hike.

 

The organization reduced Britain’s GDP growth forecast from 1.4% to 1.3% in 2011 and from 2.3% to 2.2% in 2012. This year growth will be slower as in the first quarter the national economy expanded less than it was expected. In 2012 GDP advance will be limited by higher inflation rate and a faster pace of rate increases.

 

According to BCC, UK central bank will lift up its benchmark rate from the current levels of 0.5% to 0.75% in August (in March the specialists said it would happen in May). The BoE key rate is thought to climb to 1% this year and to 2.75% by the end of 2012.

 

Economists at BCC think that it would be much better if the BoE increased the rates later – in the fourth quarter. However, the organization believes that British businesses will manage to deal with small increases of the borrowing costs. In any case, UK policymakers have to act with great caution and mustn’t be too aggressive in monetary tightening, underlined BCC.

 

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Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. GBP/USD

 

Weekly GBP/USD

 

Last week British pound managed to rise versus the greenback adding more than 150 pips. The Standard line acted as a support (1) and the prices went up breaking though the Turning line (2).

 

The “golden cross” formed by Tenkan and Kijun above Kumo is still in place (3). Chinkou Span has bounced up from the price chart (4) – still a bullish signal. The rising Ichimoku Cloud remains wide (5) that means that the bulls are still rather strong.

 

At the same time, all lines of the Indicator are horizontal (1, 2, Senkou Span “A” and “B”). Trend for the pair GBP/USD still remains neutral. The rate is likely to consolidate in the 1.62/1.65 area.

 

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Daily GBP/USD

 

Although at the beginning of the last week the prices dipped below a very thin Ichimoku Cloud, the bulls quickly managed to regain control: pound was able to rise above the Turning line (1) and then the Standard line (2).

 

Never the less, the Cloud reversed down (4) that that in the short term the powers of bulls have gone out, though the bears haven’t come in power yet.

 

Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen still keep the “dead cross” (3) – the signal isn’t very strong as the figure was formed above Kumo. It’s possible to expect downward correction and consolidation of the rate.

 

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Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. USD/JPY

 

Weekly USD/JPY

 

Last week the prices went down erasing the advance made a week ago and returned to the Standard line that’s once again acting as a support (2).

 

Tenkan-sen went horizontally and is now acting as a resistance (1).

 

The descending Ichimoku Cloud (3) has narrowed, though the bears are still dominating the market.

 

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Daily USD/JPY

 

At the beginning of the week the prices managed to move a little bit higher, though on Thursday and Friday the rate significantly fell and, as a result, pound lowered to Senkou Span “B” (1). The bullish Ichimoku Cloud is narrowing (2).

 

At the same time, Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, as it was expected, formed the “golden cross” inside of Kumo that increases the chances for consolidation inside of the Cloud taking into account the support provided by its lower border.

 

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Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. USD/CHF

 

Weekly USD/CHF

 

The general trend for the pair USD/CHF remains strongly bearish. Last week the prices renewed the record minimum at 0.8511. The lines of the Indicator are bending down (1, 2, 3 and 4). The bearish Cloud is wide.

 

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Daily USD/CHF

 

Tenkan-sen (2) and Kijun-sen (1) formed the “dead cross”. The Ichimoku Cloud is still creating pressure for the pair (3) limiting the advance of the rate.

 

At the same time the prices may find support at the trend support line and move a little higher. Technical picture for the pair remains negative.

 

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Juncker: EU will decide on further Greece’s funding by the end of Jun

 

Jean-Claude Juncker who’s leading of Eurogroup said that the European Union leaders will decide on additional aid for Greece by the end of June.

 

In coming days the EU, IMF and ECB are finishing the review of Greece’s in meeting the terms of last year’s 110 billion-euro ($157 billion) bailout. According to the results of this examination, the EU will come up with plan for further aid to the country.

 

Under the terms of the rescue package, Greece was to return to financial markets and sell about 30 billion euro of bonds next year. As 10-year bond yields reached 16.4% that exceeds those of the time of the bailout in more than 2 times, Greece isn’t able to finance itself on its own and will need more aid.

 

ECB Executive Board member Lorenzo Bini Smaghi thinks that the EU and IMF will have to put up another 30 billion euro in loans to tide Greece over next year with the rest of its 2012-2013 financing needs covered by revenue from asset sales and other measures, reports Financial Times.

 

Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou has announced an additional 6 billion euro of budget cuts for this year to meet the bailout goal of cutting the deficit to 7.5% of GDP. The government also pledged to speed 50 billion euro of state asset sales to repay part of its debt, which is set to reach almost 160% of GDP this year.

 

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Commerzbank: EUR/USD will keep correcting upwards

 

The single currency went up from 1.4000 versus the greenback last week overcoming the key resistance in the 1.4340/65 area.

 

Technical analysts at Commerzbank claim that such move of euro means that its upward correction is likely to deepen. In their view, the pair EUR/USD is poised up towards 1.4568/1.4730 (61.8% and 78.6% Fibonacci retracements).

 

According to the bank, support levels are situated at 1.4300/1.4240. While the European currency is trading higher, the market will remain bullish. If euro breached this area, it will head down to test 1.4003/1.3969 (200-week MA and the recent minimum).

 

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BlackRock: euro zone's financial sector’s in danger

 

Analysts at BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager that’s in charge of about $3.65 trillion in assets in its stock, bond and hedge funds, believe that euro zone’s financial problems don’t amount to only Greek ones, though, of course, Greek issue is the most urgent to deal with.

 

The specialists note that if the terms of Greek debt repayment are changed the same will become inevitable for Irish and Portuguese debt.

 

The company underlines that European banks own the major part of the region’s debt, so restructuring in one country will put euro area’s bank under pressure. As a result, before restructuring national debts it’s necessary to restructure the banking system in Europe.

 

According to BlackRock, Europe will need a giant TARP that stands for the Troubled Asset Relief Program like one that was conducted in the United States to rescue financial firms.

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BofA Merrill Lynch expects loonie to decline

 

Canadian dollar may decline as it’s widely thought that the Bank of Canada will decide today not to raise its benchmark interest rate that’s currently at 1.00% level. The overnight rate will be released today at 1.00 pm GMT.

 

On the one hand, Canada has very strong fundamentals such as decreasing unemployment, shrinking budget deficit and faster growth than in the United States. On the other hand, loonie reached the maximal level versus the greenback since November 2007 on April 29 at 0.9445. Canadian currency has become too strong and is affecting the nation’s exports that are already curbed by low demand from the US, Canada’s main trading partner.

 

Canada’s central bank’s governor Mark Carney dampened the expectations of rate hike in his May 16 speech citing the risks created by CAD’s appreciation. That made loonie drop by the end of the month to 0.9800.

 

According to Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Canadian currency will fall against its US counterpart to $1.03 by the year-end and to $1.07 by the end of 2012. The specialists think that CAD is overvalued by 20%. Analysts at Wells Fargo say, however, that investors may be underestimating the potential for rate rises as inflation in Canada is rather high and the country’s economic growth’s gaining momentum. In their view, the pair USD/CAD will finish the year at 0.90.

 

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Mizuho: comments on GBP/USD

 

Technical analysts at Mizuho Corporate Bank claim that as the British currency rose from last week’s minimum at 1.6060 compensating 61.8% of May's decline and closing the week above 1.4300, the bullish pressure on the pair GBP/USD has strengthened.

 

According to the specialists, sterling reached the long-term resistance area of 1.6500/7000. Mizuho expects pound to trade at these levels for the rest of the week and possibly for the whole summer.

 

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BMO Capital Markets: long-term EUR/USD forecast

 

Analysts at BMO Capital Markets think that as the pair EUR/USD went down from maximums of early May in the 1.4900 area to 1.3970 it has formed a significant minimum.

 

According to the specialists, the single currency will rise versus the greenback to 1.4700 in the third quarter of 2011 and to 1.4900 in the final 3 months of the year.

 

However, the strategists expect euro to go through continuous slump next year falling to 1.4800 in the first quarter of 2012, to 1.4600 in the second one, to 1.4300 in the third quarter and to 1.4100 in the final 3 months of 2012.

 

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Citigroup about US debt and dollar’s rate

 

Analysts at Citigroup think that if US debt overcomes the critical level, the greenback will be affected much more than Treasuries as international holders of American debt may regard potential losses as greater than domestic ones.

 

The specialists think that the foreign exchange reaction to a debt ceiling breach would be sharper and probably more permanent. As a result, foreign investors will use every chance to sell dollars.

 

US Congress has to find a way to avoid default before August 2. The amount the government can borrow was reached May 16. Today the House of Representatives is voting on the $14.3 trillion threshold by $2.4 trillion. Republicans demand high spending cuts and no tax increases as a condition for raising the limit.

 

According to Citigroup, if there’s US sovereign debt crisis, dollar will ultimately lose value. Taking into account the fact that the euro area is also facing great difficulties, the analysts recommend turning to such currencies as Canadian, Australian and New Zealand’s dollars, Norwegian krone and Swedish krona as these nations don’t have the same fiscal problems.

[FBS.com Official]

BoA-Merrill Lynch: China’s economic growth forecast

 

According to the data released today, China’s official PMI fell for the second month in a row declining from 52.9 in April to 52.0 in May. HSBC China Manufacturing PMI went down to from 51.8 in April to 10-month minimum of 51.6 in May.

 

Economists at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch claim that although Chinese PMI figures were lower, economic slowdown will be a “soft landing”: the nation’s economic growth rate will be slowly declining after strong advance seen earlier.

 

In their view, the nation’s annual GDP growth will ease from 9.7% in the first 3 months of the year to 9.4% in the second quarter and to about 9.0% in the second half of 2011. The specialists neither expect further monetary tightening in China, nor think that monetary policy will be eased this year.

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BMO, J.P.Morgan: trading on the hurricanes

 

The Atlantic hurricane season has begun today and will last traditionally till the end of November. Weather experts in US National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center expect an above-normal hurricane season this year with 12 to 18 named storms, of which 6-10 could become hurricanes.

 

Analysts at BMO Capital gave investors a piece of advice on how to trade on hurricane news.

 

In their view, the best strategy in such case is buying oil-exporting country's currencies versus US dollar. Oil prices will go up once the storms hit areas like the Gulf of Mexico. The specialists say that the greenback lost 3% versus its Canadian counterpart after hurricanes Katrina and Rita.

 

Strategists at J.P.Morgan Asset Management share this opinion. According to them, it may be sensible enough to start building positions in such currencies as Canadian dollar, Russian ruble and Norwegian krone now in order to be ready when a storm hits. The economists think that oil prices could move up even before a specific storm warning is issued.

 

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Commerzbank: EUR/JPY is moving up to 123.33

 

The single currency surged yesterday versus Japanese yen. Today the pair EUR/JPY is testing resistance of the 55-day MA at 117.45.

 

Technical analysts at Commerzbank claim that if euro manages to get above this level it will be poised up to 119.11 and then to the recent maximum at 123.33.

 

According to the bank, support for the pair is situated at the 200-day MA at 113.23 and 55-week MA at 112.91. The outlook for euro is neutral/positive.

 

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UBS: short-term bullish outlook for euro

 

Technical analysts at UBS claim that euro’s rebound versus the greenback from last week’s minimum at 1.3970 paused ahead of resistance in the 1.4455 area. In their view, the pair EUR/USD will manage to break above this zone. In this case the bullish pressure on the single currency will increase encouraging it for an advance to 1.4569.

 

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Rating agencies warn about Japan’s problems

 

Yesterday Moody's Investors Service began reviewing Japan’s Aa2 credit rating as the negative consequences of March 11 earthquake may turn out to be greater than expected and the measures to reduce the nation’s huge budget deficit aren’t efficient enough because of the political tensions between the opposition and the current government.

 

According to the ratings agency, Japanese debt will keep rising unless spending is cut or revenue’s increased. It’s necessary to note that Japan's gross debt burden is already above 200%, that’s the highest level among major economies.

 

On February 22 Moody’s changed the outlook for Japan's bond rating to negative. The last time the country’s rating was changed on May 18, 2009. Currently Japan is at the same step in rating as Italy and Spain.

 

The opposition has refused to support Prime Minister Naoto Kan’s government decision to issue deficit-covering bonds for the fiscal year that began April 1. As a result, there’s a more than 40% gap in revenue in relation to planned spending even before extra spending related to the devastating disaster is taken into account.

 

Other major ratings agencies are as well pessimistic about the situation in Japan: Fitch Ratings said last week that it was assigning a negative outlook to its AA- rating, which is one notch below Moody's level. Standard & Poor's also has a negative outlook on its AA- rating.

 

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Australian dollar gained on less negative GDP data

 

Australian dollar rose today to the 3-week maximum versus the greenback in the 1.0750 area gaining nearly 1%.

 

Aussie was encouraged by the news that the nation’s GDP fell in the first quarter only by 1.2% from the previous 3 month – though it was the biggest quarterly drop in 20 years, some economists were looking to much more dramatic figures. For example, analysts at Goldman Sachs expected the slump of more than 2%.

 

Support for the pair AUD/USD is situated at $1.0637, while resistance is found at $1.0757.

 

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s meeting is taking place on June 7. The central bank will likely keep the benchmark rate unchanged at the current level of 4.75%.

 

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Analysts about the possibility of QE3 in the US

 

As US labor market and housing data is quite discouraging many analysts start wondering whether American monetary authorities will extend monetary stimulus to promote the rebound of the nation’s economy in form of the third round of quantitative easing.

 

The greenback was under pressure this year as the QE2 made the interest rates in the United States decline, while the other nations in the world were tightening monetary policy. So, the market has been looking forward to the end of the Fed’s $600-billion bond purchase program to see some relief in US currency. However, the weak macroeconomic data made brought serious doubts to the market.

 

Analysts at MF Capital think that declining bond yields point at the weakness of American economy. In their view, the Federal Reserve will find it necessary to act and continue buying Treasuries.

 

Economists at Citigroup note that the fact that US stocks are bringing better revenues than bonds. The specialists reminded that the last time it happened in a sustained way was when markets were pricing in the current round of easing. That time dollar was also weakening. Although the greenback’s trading not as weak as at the end of April, the pace of its depreciation during the last week was high enough, so it’s possible to assume that forex markets is preparing to the new stimulus program. According to the bank, Federal Reserve’s chairman Ben Bernanke will be able to persuade the FOMC to support QE3 only if US GDP posts negative dynamics in at least one quarter. As a result, Citi estimates the probability of new round of QE as low.

 

Economists at JPMorgan Chase are sure that the QE2 will be the last as additional monetary stimulus will lead to rather bad political consequences.

 

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Jean-Claude Trichet proposes the single euro zone’s government

 

European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet claimed today that the governments of the European nations should consider the possibility of creating euro zone’s finance ministry.

 

Trichet underlined that the euro area already has the single market, the single currency and the single central bank, so establishing the single ministry of finance seems to be both natural and vital step taking into account the current problems of the region.

 

According to the ECB head, though such body as the single finance ministry wouldn’t necessarily administer a large federal budget, it would act in 3 spheres: firstly, supervise both fiscal policies and competitiveness policies and direct responsibilities for countries in fiscal distress; secondly, it would carry out all the typical responsibilities of the executive branches as regards the union’s integrated financial sector, so as to accompany the full integration of financial services; thirdly, it would represent the union confederation in international financial institutions. Analysts at Daiwa Capital Markets draw investors’ attention to the fact that Trichet didn’t propose to enable the institution to issue common bonds and have a budget, so it won’t actually be a proper treasury.

 

As for bailing out indebted euro zone’s nations, particularly Greece, Trichet said that financial aid is justified only when the country makes real efforts to conduct severe austerity measures.

 

All in all, the necessity of some sort of fiscal governance in Europe is becoming more and more evident. Famous billionaire investor George Soros warned about the lack of a common European fiscal authority as far back as in 2009.

[FBS.com Official]

Well Fargo: US dollar may resume growth versus euro

 

Strategists at Wells Fargo compare the situation in Greece in May of 2011 with what was a year ago. In their view, there are both common points and differences.

 

As for the similarities, the source of investors’ fears remains the same, the Fed’s quantitative easing program is approaching its end and there are a lot of short USD positions. As a result, it’s possible to expect that the greenback’s weakness will be limited and that US currency will once again start strengthening in the coming weeks and months.

 

Though last summer the Fed began signaling the second round of quantitative easing, the specialists don’t think there will be QE3 this year, so the chance of dollar’s fall as in the second half of 2010 is also lower.

 

According to Wells Fargo, the most likely outcome in Europe is that Greece will keep conducting austerity measures in exchange for further financial aid. The analysts say that though this would harm euro less than debt restructuring, European authorities may be accused of avoiding more decisive and fundamental steps in resolving the crisis. However, the economists admit that the US is also facing important risks such as weak economic data and the debate on raising the debt ceiling.

 

Never the less, taking into account short US dollar positions, the impending end of Fed easing and European woes the analysts still think that the greenback may resume advance. Well Fargo kept the 3-month forecast for the EUR/USD at 1.4200 and the 12-month at 1.3400.

 

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[FBS.com Official]

Commerzbank: Swiss franc crosses today

 

EUR/CHF: the analysts note that the pair has found interim tehnical support in the 1.2050 area and may advance to resistance at 1.2320 (March minimums). The key resistance for euro is situated at 1.2404 – while it’s trading below this level, the outlook for the pair will remain negative.

 

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