Aggressive Growth Trading Journal ($1,000 to $100,000)

[businessman9821]

yes i'm using same settings, plus same modifications! :) And yes i will keep you updated...hm if u want i could be the test dummy, i'll use 6:15 to 6:45, then we could compare our results...

[Bill Curry]

yes i'm using same settings, plus same modifications! :) And yes i will keep you updated...hm if u want i could be the test dummy, i'll use 6:15 to 6:45, then we could compare our results...

 

What modifications? This goes without saying, but if you want to try out different times do not do it on a live account.

[businessman9821]

The modifications you posted on the 51st post. Page 5 or 6 i believe. The additional coding, or edited coding you implemented, i copied and pasted the same modifications. Compiled and did a backtest, 0 errors and good profit same as yours! And i am going to try a different time and i'm going to do it live! :) Don't worry Bill you have warned me. Any destruction to my account is my own fault. But indeed if i couldn't afford to lose this, i wouldn't. So we'll test side by side, that way we'll be absolutely sure about the GMT offset. Here is my account http://www.myfxbook.com/members/BusinessGuy09/graceland/84171, u can add it to your 1st post if you want.

 

ps: nvm the trades from feb 7 to feb8, not made by TMT

Edited February 8, 2011 by businessman9821

[Bill Curry]

The modifications you posted on the 51st post. Page 5 or 6 i believe. The additional coding, or edited coding you implemented, i copied and pasted the same modifications. Compiled and did a backtest, 0 errors and good profit same as yours! And i am going to try a different time and i'm going to do it live! :) Don't worry Bill you have warned me. Any destruction to my account is my own fault. But indeed if i couldn't afford to lose this, i wouldn't. So we'll test side by side, that way we'll be absolutely sure about the GMT offset. Here is my account http://www.myfxbook.com/members/BusinessGuy09/graceland/84171, u can add it to your 1st post if you want.

 

I highly recommend you read the FMT manual before changing the entry time. According to the manual the time of 7:30AM is correct. If you like you can try running a backtest with Metaquote's historical data that will be using the same GMT offset as your broker (TDFX). It won't be completely accurate, but it should be enough to tell you what time you should be using. All of my backtests have shown 7:30 as the proper entry time.

 

I'll update my original post with your portfolio.

[jm2110]

Rather than worrying about gmt offsets and summer time etc etc the easiest way to work out the correct time is that the standard FMT entry time always equates to 6.30 am in London....ie just as the first traders are sitting down at their desks. If your broker is gmt + 1 then yes that currently equates to 7.30 on your server but it gets confusing because London time is not always gmt time so best just to have a London clock on your pc and compare your server time (in the market data window ) vs that.

[joeytrader]

Agree with jm2110, the official entry time for FMT is 6:30 London time, regardless of summer or winter time.

 

I can also confirm that Bill's timing is pretty much in-line with the official time. Because yesterday, I was tracking live both my FMT chart, and Bill's mt4stats.com updates. As soon as Bill's 7:15 trade (see his post #71) was triggered, I noticed my world clock was showing 6:15 London time. In other words, 7:30 on Bill's test will be the same as 6:30 London time. And from Bill stats on the mt4stats page, most of the trades have been placed either 6:15 or 6:30 in terms of London time.

 

I too am trading this live since late last week, but with a much more humble risk exposure per trade. Also I am manual trader, so I use a more basic 40 TP, 20 BE, 50 SL, and try to stay as close to 6:30 start time as I can. (Yes, slightly larger SL from the official method). But as a manual trader, I frequently deviate from the standard rules. For example, if I see prices are likely to begin to take off in FMT's direction (e.g. higher highs higher lows, in a long trade), I sometimes get in earlier by couple of minutes, and frequently save myself a few pips there. Then I sometimes also get out of trade earlier, especially if prices are struggling near any likely resistance/support.

 

Yesterday it was pure luck that I closed the trade at 12 pips profit, because I had to leave for some family errands.

 

But like Bill's prediction in post #69, I half expected a loss was coming up soon before yesterday's trade. And hopefully, another winning streak will now return again.

[Bill Curry]

Agree with jm2110, the official entry time for FMT is 6:30 London time, regardless of summer or winter time.

 

I can also confirm that Bill's timing is pretty much in-line with the official time. Because yesterday, I was tracking live both my FMT chart, and Bill's mt4stats.com updates. As soon as Bill's 7:15 trade (see his post #71) was triggered, I noticed my world clock was showing 6:15 London time. In other words, 7:30 on Bill's test will be the same as 6:30 London time. And from Bill stats on the mt4stats page, most of the trades have been placed either 6:15 or 6:30 in terms of London time.

 

I too am trading this live since late last week, but with a much more humble risk exposure per trade. Also I am manual trader, so I use a more basic 40 TP, 20 BE, 50 SL, and try to stay as close to 6:30 start time as I can. (Yes, slightly larger SL from the official method). But as a manual trader, I frequently deviate from the standard rules. For example, if I see prices are likely to begin to take off in FMT's direction (e.g. higher highs higher lows, in a long trade), I sometimes get in earlier by couple of minutes, and frequently save myself a few pips there. Then I sometimes also get out of trade earlier, especially if prices are struggling near any likely resistance/support.

 

Yesterday it was pure luck that I closed the trade at 12 pips profit, because I had to leave for some family errands.

 

But like Bill's prediction in post #69, I half expected a loss was coming up soon before yesterday's trade. And hopefully, another winning streak will now return again.

 

Thanks for clearing up the entry times for us, Joey.

 

Long trade entered at 7:15

First BE hit at +0

Total growth of account: +0%

Growth since beginning of month: +46.6%

 

Today the market just didn't have enough volume in either direction to really do anything. Better than a loss though.

 

I previously mentioned that I was going to use KangarooEA to offset some of my losses. I had temporarily shut it off and was planning on using it later in the year. After some backtesting and being impressed with the results I had decided yesterday to turn it back on. I have it running on AUDUSD and EURUSD, so don't be surprised if you see trades being opened on those pairs.

[Bill Curry]

There is high-impact news being released tomorrow around the time TMT will be trading, so I've been debating whether to keep the EA running or not. I ultimately decided not to interfere and to let the EA run its course, good or bad. If tomorrow ends up being a loser then I won't be back in the green this week, but I still have high expectations for February.

[businessman9821]

i switched my time back to 7:15 to 7:45....i have a different broker from you. (it is also GMT+1 ) Lets see how the news effect our results. And how TMT trades on different brokers

[freddy]

Hi everyone,

 

Could you Bill, or any other TMT's specialist help me understand why (at least today)

 

(Momentum < 100 & CCI<0):should go Short.(!? no?)

But:

 

TMT enters LONG (hit SL)

and

FMT enters SHORT (hit TP)

 

I thought the Enter's logic was the same for both, and the difference was that TMT had different Exit strategies.

 

Thanks

freddy

[joeytrader]

Hi everyone,

 

Could you Bill, or any other TMT's specialist help me understand why (at least today)

 

(Momentum < 100 & CCI<0):should go Short.(!? no?)

But:

 

TMT enters LONG (hit SL)

and

FMT enters SHORT (hit TP)

 

I thought the Enter's logic was the same for both, and the difference was that TMT had different Exit strategies.

 

Thanks

freddy

 

I am not TMT specialist, as I only trade FMT manually, but I think I can explain.

 

GBPUSD was very flat for the entire Asian session, so the Momentum and CCI indicators were very close to their respective long-or-short change-over levels by 6 o'clock London time.

 

I was watching it live as it happened. For the half hour before 6:30 London time, the signals were jumping back and forth between long, no-trade, and short. In fact, for Bill's TMT trade trigger time of 6:15 London time, it was still a no-trade signal literally only minutes before, but then both indicators just barely pushed above their mid-lines by the end of the candle right before 6:15 London time, so the EA registered a Long trade.

 

If you were watching the chart at that time, you would notice both indicators almost "immediately" went back below to the short side within seconds right after.

 

So today is one of those rare days where the signal changed from long to short within a very short time-span. By the time 6:30 London time comes, it was now a short signal.

 

I myself did not take this trade today, because of the jumping back-and-forth of signal I just mentioned. Although if I had, I would have had a winner.

 

 

 

Edit:

Forgot to mention, another difference between FMT and TMT, is that the basic FMT uses only 6:30 London time for entry, whereas TMT can have the option of entering at different entry times as directed by the trader. In this case, Bill's TMT looks for trade at more than just one set time. And today, his TMT took a valid trade at 6:15, which has a different direction from FMT signal by 6:30.

Edited February 10, 2011 by joeytrader

[Bill Curry]

Obviously the news had a massive impact on the price today. TMT took a long trade, but the price immediately went south and didn't even get close to my BE or TP, hitting my SL for the second time this week. The news today came out much worse than expected, hence the drop.

 

Long trade entered at 7:15

Hit SL at -50 pips

Total growth of account: -17.5%

Growth since beginning of month: +20.9%

 

One thing I did notice is that entering today at 7:15 was very bad and actually cost me this loss. If I had entered at the recommended time, 7:30, I would've actually probably gone short and had a profit today. For these news days I think it's very important to enter at the proper time. There is more high-impact news coming out tomorrow, so I've changed my entry time from 7:15-7:45 to 7:30-7:45. Hopefully we can make a win out of tomorrow, otherwise this looks like it could be a losing week, heading dangerously close to my lowest balance in January. These fundamentals are screwing up everything this week.

 

KangarooEA seems to be doing well. Relative to my account size, it has slightly offset some of the losses I've had this week. It may just be for psychological benefit right now, but I'm happy with it so far.

[freddy]

I am not TMT specialist, as I only trade FMT manually, but I think I can explain.

 

GBPUSD was very flat for the entire Asian session, so the Momentum and CCI indicators were very close to their respective long-or-short change-over levels by 6 o'clock London time.

 

I was watching it live as it happened. For the half hour before 6:30 London time, the signals were jumping back and forth between long, no-trade, and short. In fact, for Bill's TMT trade trigger time of 6:15 London time, it was still a no-trade signal literally only minutes before, but then both indicators just barely pushed above their mid-lines by the end of the candle right before 6:15 London time, so the EA registered a Long trade.

 

If you were watching the chart at that time, you would notice both indicators almost "immediately" went back below to the short side within seconds right after.

 

So today is one of those rare days where the signal changed from long to short within a very short time-span. By the time 6:30 London time comes, it was now a short signal.

 

I myself did not take this trade today, because of the jumping back-and-forth of signal I just mentioned. Although if I had, I would have had a winner.

 

 

 

Edit:

Forgot to mention, another difference between FMT and TMT, is that the basic FMT uses only 6:30 London time for entry, whereas TMT can have the option of entering at different entry times as directed by the trader. In this case, Bill's TMT looks for trade at more than just one set time. And today, his TMT took a valid trade at 6:15, which has a different direction from FMT signal by 6:30.

 

Thanks a lot Joe,

 

Effectively I only looked at charts later (not live as you did), see pic and it was a Short at 07:15.

 

I am glad you watched that live, it is clear now and we can conclude it is very sensitive!

 

Do you think a coder could add a buffer (extern parameter) when this happens so that would lead to a no trade in this case, or wait for the next bar if signal is confirmed (today short at 07:30)?

 

http://img43.imageshack.us/img43/5273/fmtaw.jpg

[joeytrader]

Thanks a lot Joe,

 

Effectively I only looked at charts later (not live as you did), see pic and it was a Short at 07:15.

 

I am glad you watched that live, it is clear now and we can conclude it is very sensitive!

 

Do you think a coder could add a buffer (extern parameter) when this happens so that would lead to a no trade in this case, or wait for the next bar if signal is confirmed (today short at 07:30)?

 

http://img43.imageshack.us/img43/5273/fmtaw.jpg

 

Hi Freddy, I think I notice couple of points from your chart:

 

(1) The data window is showing Momentum and CCI for the "close" of the M15 candle, so in fact, this is the signal for the official FMT short signal at 7:30 (your chart time). Whereas for Bill's TMT signal at 7:15, you actually need to look at the data at the "close" of the 7:00 M15 candle (i.e. just the instant before 7:15 candle starts), one candle to the left.

 

(2) Your data feed seems a little different from alpari UK demo, which I use. I assume this is due to slight variations of price feed between different brokers. So in my case, if you move your cursor 1 candle to the left of the current candle you highlighted, on Alpari UK Demo will show Momentum = 100.0157, and CCI = 7.6892, just barely qualifying for "long" trade. But on your chart, due to slight different data feed, your numbers may differ from mine, and in you case a TMT may be a no trade right at the start of 7:15 candle.

 

But by 7:30 (your chart time, which is 6:30 London time) comes, the end of 7:15 M15 candle is now clearly pointing to a short trade.

Edited February 11, 2011 by joeytrader

[freddy]

Hi Freddy, I think I notice couple of points from your chart:

 

(1) The data window is showing Momentum and CCI for the "close" of the M15 candle, so in fact, this is the signal for the official FMT short signal at 7:30 (your chart time). Whereas for Bill's TMT signal at 7:15, you actually need to look at the data at the "close" of the 7:00 M15 candle (i.e. just the instant before 7:15 candle starts), one candle to the left.

 

(2) Your data feed seems a little different from alpari UK demo, which I use. I assume this is due to slight variations of price feed between different brokers. So in my case, if you move your cursor 1 candle to the left of the current candle you highlighted, on Alpari UK Demo will show Momentum = 100.0157, and CCI = 7.6892, just barely qualifying for "long" trade. But on your chart, due to slight different data feed, your numbers may differ from mine, and in you case a TMT may be a no trade right at the start of 7:15 candle.

 

But by 7:30 (your chart time, which is 6:30 London time) comes, the end of 7:15 M15 candle is now clearly pointing to a short trade.

 

Hi Joe, I use TMT on Alpari but did not attached any template.

The pic is FMT template on Tadawul demo and it is a bit different.

The 7:00 cdle on your Alpari would have been a long trade, and on Tadawul a no trade.

And you're right, at 7:30 both platforms and wether FMT or TMT would qualify for a short.

(On T2W I read they had same kind of results)

 

But, I still think a buffer could be a good filter when these kind of situations arise.

 

 

http://img52.imageshack.us/img52/5522/fmttadawul.jpg

[freddy]

Today is a winner! :)

[Bill Curry]

Freddy is right, today was a winner!

 

Long trade entered at 7:15

First TP hit at +36 pips (75% of position, 36 * .75 = 27)

Second TP hit at +46 pips (25% of position, 46 * .25 = 11.5)

Total pips: +38.5

Total growth of account: +16.3%

Growth since beginning of month: +40.6%

 

This week was pretty frustrating. Fundamentals screwed up the trades almost every day. It started out great, then immediately went down hill, and now we're almost back to break-even for the week. One thing that I've learned this week is that entering early at 7:15 is not a great idea. It's better, especially on news days, to enter at 7:30 or 7:45. I've permanently set my entry time to this time range. If I had been entering at 7:30 I would have been back in the green this week, with the trade on Thursday being a win instead of hitting my SL. This was a profitable week for most FMT/TMT traders. Lesson learned.

 

EDIT: I forgot to mention that I had more down-time today with my VPS service. It was very dangerously close to the time FMT/TMT would be trading. That was the final straw for me, so I canceled my account and will be moving on to a more reliable host. I was using ThrustVPS, if you're wondering.

Edited February 11, 2011 by Bill Curry

[businessman9821]

I missed the trade :( Same, vps issues...sadly i missed the trade. Oh well hopefully next week will be good. I also funded my account so i'll be trading at 1k also. Quick question Bill, does your new backtest show 7:30 starting hour to be just as profitable as 7:15 starting hour? Or have you done a new one yet? Also i done a backtest with same set, broker, same modification, and 99% model quality, and i didn't get no where near your results? How do u upload a backtest i can show you my results

[Bill Curry]

I missed the trade :( Same, vps issues...sadly i missed the trade. Oh well hopefully next week will be good. I also funded my account so i'll be trading at 1k also. Quick question Bill, does your new backtest show 7:30 starting hour to be just as profitable as 7:15 starting hour? Or have you done a new one yet? Also i done a backtest with same set, broker, same modification, and 99% model quality, and i didn't get no where near your results? How do u upload a backtest i can show you my results

 

I just switched to Black Box VPS (bbvps.com), so hopefully they are more reliable.

 

In backtests I found that having a range from 7:15-7:45 did increase the profit at the end of the year compared to 7:30-7:45. Since my initial tests I haven't done any more backtesting with different start times, but I'd expect there to be slightly smaller profit, but smaller DD as well. I'll do some more testing tonight and let you know of my results.

 

Which results are you referring to? You can use rapidshare or megaupload to share your backtests.

[celtics]

yeah right, get rich with metatrader:D

[Bill Curry]

Loser today. Had a no trade on my demo account but went long on the live account. Not sure what went wrong.

 

I've decided not to update this thread daily unless there has been a change to my strategy or something else worth mentioning. To see my daily trade outcomes, just check my myfxbook.com portfolio in the OP.

[businessman9821]

Loser today. Had a no trade on my demo account but went long on the live account. Not sure what went wrong.

 

I've decided not to update this thread daily unless there has been a change to my strategy or something else worth mentioning. To see my daily trade outcomes, just check my myfxbook.com portfolio in the OP.

 

I dunno what could of happened buddy, i didn't get a trade today on my live account. I use a different broker from you though, HotForex. Maybe Tadawul had a slip up on their end

[jm2110]

If you look at your journal Bill at 7.150 on your demo and on vps you will see that today was a day where the ADR filter should have prevented a trade but I am guessing on the vps the adr value was returned as 0.0000. This is because the adr logic requires a d1 history and on your new vps if you have never opened a d1 gu chart then the ea had no history to look at . If you open a d1 chart on vps and leave it open this should prevent this happening again.

 

Here is a classic example of why you should continue updating here daily as it is a good cross reference for all and together we can share advice so please reconsider your decision to stop.

[businessman9821]

wow good insight jm2110

[jm2110]

Had similar thing happen to me when first started with VPS.

 

Bill to give you confidence that it is now working correctly after you have opened a D1 chart run a backtest on your vps over the last couple of days and you will (hopefully!) see that it now doesn't pick up a trade yesterday.