Power levels trading

[udc]

Oh, sorry to timo77, I didn't read correctly your post, I thought you wanted Gold and Silver, but it was Gold and Oil.

 

Well, I can work with these:

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude_quotes_settlements_options.html

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/crude-oil/brent-crude-oil-last-day_quotes_settlements_options.html

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/natural-gas/natural-gas_quotes_settlements_options.html

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/refined-products/heating-oil_quotes_settlements_options.html

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/refined-products/rbob-gasoline_quotes_settlements_options.html

 

Which one you want and what's its MT4 symbol name?

 

 

Spazzy252, didn't you want those indexes and some Oil too? I thought you were checking the webpages and found there is no data. Has it changed recently or something?

[huuu]

You need to click on Options settlements, not Futures ones, here are the correct links:

 

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/equity-index/us-index/e-mini-dow_quotes_settlements_options.html

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/equity-index/us-index/e-mini-sandp500_quotes_settlements_options.html

 

Plus e-mini NASDAQ-100:

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/equity-index/us-index/e-mini-nasdaq-100_quotes_settlements_options.html

 

 

Now you only need to tell me what Metatrader broker supports these indexes so I can pair CME and MT4 symbol names.

 

Thank you very much for this excellent indicator. The following Metatrader broker supports all these indexes: http://www.gkfx.com/EN/

[udc]

It seems different brokers name these instruments differently so I will just make some defaults and make all MT4 symbol names (including Forex ones) configurable.

 

I will try to implement 3 e-mini indexes and 5 energy instruments as indicated above. I will also make this extended section of the OBEL-engine optional so the people who use it only for Forex wouldn't have their computer spammed with unneeded CSVs.

 

Actually, on second thought I think it will be even better to just make all instruments individually switchable, e.g. if someone uses it only for EURUSD it's pointless to download also all 5 other Forex data.

[Trader99]

Hey udc....

 

Just wanted to say a big "THANKS" for the effort you have put into this indicator. I was using the power levels indicator before it stopped working. With your efforts and the revival of the thread...I have decided to re-visit this trading approach.

 

T99

[biskwie]

thank you udc for all your work and time to make this indicator a success

[timo77]

Thanks udc, I use AxiTrader and the symbols are WTI, XAUSD, and of you happen to include silver, it's XAGUSD.

 

Thanks again for your great programing efforts. How are you going with your actual trading? Do you scalp using the power levels?

 

I have a scalping method on the 1min chart. When price stretches far out of the TMA band, and I also notice divergence on rsi, I then aim to get just 5 pips, (or pennies on oil), when price rebounds back into the tma bands. Using power levels as s/r, would just make the trades higher probability ones! Thanks again. By the way, I only use axi trader MT4 for my charting and indicators, I use Ninja trader through Global Futures for my actual trades, because I can scalp the five pips within the spread of a typical forex broker, eg AxiTrader has a 5 point spread on oil.

 

What about everyone else here? what systems do you guys use? Successful? It would be interesting to hear other traders methods and how you are utilizing the power levels.

[timo77]

Actually, on second thought I think it will be even better to just make all instruments individually switchable, e.g. if someone uses it only for EURUSD it's pointless to download also all 5 other Forex data.

 

Thats a great idea! Thanks.

[iho]

Hi udc, thanks very much for your reply.

http://www.fxpro.com/downloads/platforms/client-terminal. FxPro provides futures contracts Eminis Dow (YMZ2 Dec 2012) and Eminis SP500 (EPZ2 Dec 2012)

 

They also have the usual FX pairs and Gold / Silver Vs USD as well.

Thanks a million

 

 

 

You need to click on Options settlements, not Futures ones, here are the correct links:

 

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/equity-index/us-index/e-mini-dow_quotes_settlements_options.html

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/equity-index/us-index/e-mini-sandp500_quotes_settlements_options.html

 

Plus e-mini NASDAQ-100:

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/equity-index/us-index/e-mini-nasdaq-100_quotes_settlements_options.html

 

 

Now you only need to tell me what Metatrader broker supports these indexes so I can pair CME and MT4 symbol names.

[udc]

any level(price) with increasing/digressing vol/oi are mark some symbols,which we know at that price getting strong or weak.

 

This can be done, although the relative strength could be seen from the color intensity if you enable UseVariableColors. But that of course would work only if you see both lines you want to compare. If you are on very low timeframe and quickly want to know if the level above and the level below the current one are stronger or weaker, without seeing them, for that you would need this symbol.

Maybe around every level there could be arrows that would indicate this. For illustration imagine the following 3 levels, with PrOI 200, 400, 300 and symbols "^" as arrow up and "v" as arrow down indicating if given level is stronger or weaker compared to the next one on each side. Then we would have this:

 

--200---------------
^




^
--400---------------
v




v
--300---------------

 

Actually, since these 2 symbols are mutually exclusive we don't need to indicate weakness and strength, only one of them is enough. So if we were to indicate the relative strength, it could look like this:

 

--200---------------





                 x
--400---------------
                 x





--300---------------

 

The 400 line is stronger than the line above, and also is stronger than the line below. Also, I put the symbol to the very right so that you can see it immediately without having to scroll back. Would something like this make sense?

 

 

 

if the price touch the level more then two time then that level must go hallow line,if price halt that level then that level not going to impact any more so that level must disappear.

 

This can be done too but it would be a little bit less easy as I would have to keep track where the price is going and remember the "checkpoints". And it must be specified more precisely what "touch" means, for example: if the price comes in x pips distance or less to the level, possibly temporarily crosses it by not more than y pips, and then bounces back by at least z pips, then the levels was "touched".

I wouldn't change the color or shape of the level, though, instead I would simply put there a counter (a number).

 

Similarly if the level is violated, it must be specified: if the price crosses given level by at least x pips, where "x" here must be more than "y" in the "touch" specification. For that I would simply put there a counter too and after specified number of crosses the level would be deleted.

 

It could look like this (the counters would be on the very right):

--200-------------(1)-(2)--





                        x
--400-------------(1)-(2)--
                        x





--300-------------(1)-(2)--

[jjames]

Glad you like it. Now on with the statistics thingie.

 

Would you like to see something like this:

http://img191.imageshack.us/img191/892/statistics1.png

 

or rather something like this:

http://img502.imageshack.us/img502/184/statistics2n.png

 

?

 

Both look good verry good to be honiest. Also was wondering if you could make something like a line minichart for example like a sentiment indicator for example when puts are extreme or calls. Here some example http://www.market-harmonics.com/free-charts/sentiment/putcall.htm Ussualy when they are at extreme it is good to be contrarian..

[huuu]

Hi udc, any luck with including sp500 and others into this indicator?

[udc]

Patience.

 

In the meantime I tried to clean-up little bit the look:

 

http://img72.imageshack.us/img72/3356/obel.png

 

Now the trading hours are highlighted by a gray rectangle in the background, it's almost unnoticeable on some monitors. Of course the color can be redefined and the whole feature can be switched off.

 

I also changed the defaults little bit, now the nearest expiry month is disabled and only the OBELs for quarter-year month are shown as it seems that q-month expiry got noticeable higher open interest. That in turn allowed me to turn back on the variable colors as it now doesn't collide with the other month OBEL colors.

 

Does it look better now or you liked the previous look more?

 

Also, there is a little bug in the engine. Since this Monday the nearest month expiry and the q-month expiry became the same and due to this bug the engine thinks it doesn't have all the OBELs with the final values so it keeps reading the CME website every 5 minutes.

 

 

I will either release the new versions together with new features including a wider range of instruments, or just the bugfixes alone, depends on the available time.

 

Last, but not least, I figured out the look of the statistics indi. It will show 3 items: the mini OI chart, the mini volume chart and the mini spreadsheet, all 3 individually switchable. This all will be for one of those 2 possible month expiries, so if you want to have both you just attach 2 instances of the indi.

[fxnizar]

Udc level

 

Dear UDC

Its great.really greatest contribution ever for trading community.

i take privilege to call this level(OBEL) here after UDC Level..!!

yes this is the greatest tool small trader ever have.

please traders join here and call it UDC level.

 

this one realy great.

well here some details. i want some arrow,arrow things,why?

i want oi/vol iup/down comparing with previous day data at the level .not in a each level

example if one level say put or call should comparing to previous day data.that level may be new price level,i mean if one put UDc level 1.2725 next day it may be moved some pips 1.2728 it should take as a old put level for this things when different in 10 - 15 pip price different also same level moving little bit high or low not a new level.if more then 20 pip we call it new level.

u can see easily see that when u plat 5 days or more days data on the chart u can see same level naked eye but exactly some pip different.

this small pip different i ignore it.because thats old level new strike rate .

 

"Now the trading hours are highlighted by a gray rectangle in the background, it's almost unnoticeable on some monitors. Of course the color can be redefined and the whole feature can be switched off." -udc

 

this is great idea.when power level available i used it with session indi like Asia,London, and us market hours. section by section

we can see us market hours this level work nice.my trade time frame not less then h1 so comparing level much easy for me.

Dear UDC

please forgive me asking more and more

Nizar

Edited November 14, 2012 by fxnizar

[fxnizar]

Udc level

 

more about arrow arrow!!

Calls are written at Resistance level.. (with the reasoning that resistance will hold, the price will stay below this level and finally the option will expire worthless).

If nothing then at least market will loose 1 or 2 days while attempting to break a resistance level.

More calls written at a level, indicates stronger resistance level as perceived by market players.

 

Same logic applies to puts and support level.

 

If we extend above 2 points in terms of PCR, then if PCR > 1 at a particular strike, means more puts written then calls, i.e. a support level for market. Bigger the PCR number, stronger the support.

If PCR < 1 for a strike = Resistance level for the mkt.

 

As mkt approaches the particular price level and sentiments indicate that the level might be broken, then PCR starts shifting to next level.

 

Some people try to calculate PCR for a strike price by taking near and far month contracts for same strike and adding the numbers. The strategy like Calender spread (selling front month option and buying far month option of same strike) will give wrong impression if you look at only near month. But if u take 2 months view, the PCR will be more balanced. This approach also gives smooth rollover of PCR which is affected due to of option expiry.

Nizar

[fxnizar]

Udc level

 

more about arrow arrow

 

PCR ratio is of 2 types- (1) OI based (2) traded vol based

Interpretation of both type is different.

 

OI based PCR tells where new money has flown while traded

vol based PCR maps the overall sentiment which is called the herd mentality in the trading parlance.

 

PCR ratio is construed as contrarian indicator as traders use it to take the contra positions.This can be used along with other overbought/oversold indicators .Though the interpretation of PCR(OI) and PCR(vol) is different but the results conform.

 

PCR(vol): when this ratio is higher, this means more puts have been traded in comparision to calls.

When PCR crosses well above average value (over a time period we are considering), a reversal is expected.So bullish trend lies ahead.

Similarly vice versa.

 

PCR(OI):When this ratio is higher this means more Puts have been written, this means flow of newer money indicates bullishness ahead.

similarly vice versa .

 

PCR with 21 dma (day ma) will useful one.but i think we need to figure out which dma suite perfect for every instruments alone,because each instruments unique and traded by unique speculators.

 

VIX implied volatility of options another tool. cobt have gold and oil, i dont know about currencies. One idea PCR/VIX= up, trend up.vise versa.

all thanks goes to original idea creator.

 

 

more input needed please join us and tell us how to use this tool.

 

Nizar

Edited November 14, 2012 by fxnizar

[fxnizar]

i think this is enough for why i want arrow, arrow, next post i will explain why i want more color, its all my observation. enlight me!!

ya one more thing Herd always herd, now understand this, i dont want mess here

Note:by great guy advice,i take it very seriously so now i leaving fx here after.

thanks for ur great advice!!

so now i only NIZAR not [Fxnizar],I LEAVED FX - HAPPY , more positive mind

any one know how to change log in name??

Nizar

Edited November 14, 2012 by fxnizar

[udc]

While working on adding those index and energy instruments into OBEL engine, I've made a little but very interesting "discovery": we can get the OBEL values from CME website in almost real-time!

 

Look here (what we are interested in is the "last" value):

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/fx/g10/euro-fx_quotes_globex_options.html?exchange=XCME&foi=OPT&venue=G&productCd=6EZ2&underlyingContract=6E&floorContractCd=ECZ2&expMonth=201212

 

So far, for today's trading we have been using OBEL data from the last closed trading day, that is the data delayed by quite many hours. With this, we could use the data delayed no more than 10-15 minutes. I could easily draw Call and Put lines for up to 4 Strikes on the chart, live.

 

Furthermore, it seems there is a separate data from Open Outcry session (the first one is from globex):

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/fx/g10/euro-fx_quotes_openOutcry_options.html?exchange=XCME&foi=OPT&venue=F&productCd=ECZ2&underlyingContract=EC&floorContractCd=ECZ2&expMonth=201212

 

It may be interesting to compare the data from globex and outcry, their correlation and what is their impact on spot Forex. So much possibilities to explore here.

 

 

fxnizar: definitely keep all your suggestions in mind and remind me of that when the OBEL statistics indi is finished.

 

 

EDIT: so it seems that open outcry quotes are not being updated on the CME web, but that's ok, globex trading is bigger anyway.

 

 

So I am thinking about reading this options quotes table every minute by the OBEL engine. From there I would reformat the numbers as follows:

- "high", "low", "prior settle", "last" => into FX quote format

- "change" => into a number of pips

 

and display them (still done from within the engine) together with "volume" and "last updated" in the form of a mini-spreadsheet. At the same time export the latest "last" into global variables that in turn would be gathered by the OBEL indi and drawn onto the chart as lines.

Sorry if it sounds too complicated or confusing but it will be pretty neat.

Edited November 15, 2012 by udc

[traderx4]

Well Done, You really are breaking new ground here. :-)

[huuu]

This is an incredibly useful tool, many thanks for all your hard work!!!

[udc]

Just for reference, here is another source of Options quotes from CME website:

http://datasuite.cmegroup.com/dataSuite.html?template=opt&productCode=6E&exchange=XCME&selected_tab=fx

 

Notice the Strike is in different format than on the other webpage. Why, oh why, CME?? Billions of dollars revenue, yet they can't unify the same information across their website. Either that, or they do it on purpose.

 

Anyway, expect today or during weekend the new versions of OBEL engine and indi.

[udc]

Should the intraday options quotes prove to be useful, here is an idea what more could be theoretically done.

 

If there is enough interest I could buy CME datafeed and relay it from my server directly to your Metatrader's OBEL engine so you would have OBEL data in the true real-time. Of course since we would have the CME datafeed we could use it for other purposes too, like showing other CME quotes within the Metatrader, using the volumes data etc.

 

I have quite powerful servers I am using for my programming work housed in a data centre so if I devoted one of them to this "project" I could also offer some VPS services as a side effect because the server would be hugely underutilized otherwise. Since the servers have 1Gbps Internet connection it might be interesting. And of course some other associative features, like a chat room or a forum, trading signals, statistics etc.

 

The downside is that it (redistributing the CME datafeed, and thus everything resulting from it) would be illegal and I can't obviously jeopardize my well established business, nor my name, so it either would have to be for a closed group of reliable members, or I would have to disassociate myself from the server so that if it blows it wouldn't get back to me. One way how to do that is to put indo-investasi IP address in front of my server so that all the traffic would go from you to indo-investasi server and only the indo server would know IP address of my server. That would require a willingness of indo staff and probably would increase the expenses and caused some additional data delay. Other way could be to get some homeless from a street to sign a housing contract, though this has caveats of its own.

 

There are also other ways, but I am afraid less probable. Since some people already do trade with CME they already have the datafeed, so they could in fact act as the "data providers". I would program a little tool for them that would gather the data in their trading station and send it to my server. But it would be risky for them, there would be an additional delay and it would work only if their trading station is running.

 

This is just an idea for the future, it's not sure it will ever happen, but I am throwing it into the air just so that we all could think about it in the meantime. If you are interested in this idea and are willing to contribute, you can start researching what all datafeeds from various redistributors are available and what is their cost, so that we could get a better idea about what would it take.

Edited November 16, 2012 by udc

[udc]

Just for reference, here is another source of Options quotes from CME website:

http://datasuite.cmegroup.com/dataSuite.html?template=opt&productCode=6E&exchange=XCME&selected_tab=fx

 

I was comparing this one with the previous options quotes webpage and it seems that this one actually is updated in the real time. Plus, it includes Bid and Ask sizes. There is data for 6 currency pairs and 3 e-mini indexes, however no energy ones (Oil etc.). I will have to reprogram the Internet grabbing function because this webpage uses POSTs instead of GETs but other than that if I keep a persistent connection with CME server I definitely should be able to read the data for all 9 instruments every minute, maybe even twice per minute. Then I could plot both Bid and Ask lines for each Strike and display a Bid/Ask sizes when hovering mouse over the lines. This Bid/Ask sizes ratio may be also reflected in the color intensity of the Bid and Ask lines, and the actual traded volume may be reflected in the width of the lines. Well, it will be fun.

[udc]

What's wrong with this picture?

 

This is a screenshot of E-mini S&P500 Options webpage (http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/equity-index/us-index/e-mini-sandp500_quotes_settlements_options.html) as of now:

 

http://img690.imageshack.us/img690/1324/eminisp500options.png

 

 

Anyone notices what is wrong with this picture?

[huuu]

This is a screenshot of E-mini S&P500 Options webpage (http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/equity-index/us-index/e-mini-sandp500_quotes_settlements_options.html) as of now:

 

http://img690.imageshack.us/img690/1324/eminisp500options.png

 

 

Anyone notices what is wrong with this picture?

 

expired 12 nov, but prices for 16nov?

[udc]

Exactly! Kind of weird, right? How can they at November 16 trade Options that already expired 4 days ago? Look at the data, there is plenty. What traders would trade already expired Options, and how CME could possibly allow such trading? :-O

 

Either I am missing something or there is a bug on CME website. Yet again, if it's a bug then what data is it actually? If you choose Dec 12 expiry then the data is different, so what data is it actually showing with Nov 12 expiry? It might be worth to actually ask CME about that, it's in our own interest after all. I can't do everything.