Power levels trading

[fxnizar]

Dear Brothers and Sisters

here what i know i going to post ,if i am wrong, please enlighten me

spot inside future inside option

which mean option deep ocean if any action there will not seen in naked eye,

if some action there we only see waves in spot market some time Tsunami,

if we want trade spot we must need knowledge of future and option market then only see clear waves,

 

option mostly for Insurance purpose , Pro using them their draw down.

every trend end with accumulation/distribution so that time we can see unusual activity on other side.

that is important because they now taking different point of view about that market so they want protect their trade,

mean if they want move up they buy lot down side option ,when market move their way we can see option contract disappear

and Future getting strong, Trend conformed :-?

 

we have great tool power levels , keep eye on Ny time 8 to 10 am that time option expiry time, we can see lot of action

push and pull my point of view this time only belong to option traders ,we can see with our power levels its settle or not .

 

and one more we need to know Dnt (do not touch) option price,which is mostly very big banks write it like Asia syndicate,i think Dnt

surely have some edge.

i think some guys selling order flow system based on this levels, ny time they see push and pull if it near level they risk more for sure few pips.example we mostly think may be iam wrong ,one level to other level but they trade in between the levels.

take two levels divide inbetween by 3 level 1 to level 2 50 pips 50/3=16 if the price enter lost 3 pip zone they place order they believe it will bring sure 15 pips in ny time. see its my observation, i may be wrong, Guide me

[fxnizar]

And its not a holy grail, market moved by pro sentiment not by crowd sentiment .

if we know this kind of information its defiantly useful us, i mean pro sentiment its start form option and future and then spot ,knowing this really useful us,

Brothers please join us make more clear

Fxnizar

Edited July 25, 2012 by fxnizar

[fxnizar]

option traders are Writers ,

spot traders mostly less informed traders if someone like to trade option it must need more knowledge then spot.

Here example

if pro wants long in spot they insures their trade option market long put option,if they want short in spot market they go long call option,

mean if one go short spot trade would be including long trade option with call type and the strike price would be the same as the spot purchase cost.

i think VSA with powerlevel is great one,still dont believe otc volume data, go here broco.com for mt4 they have 6e-cont and lot future data they give demo also or tos they also give demo .

 

go here clusterdelta.com they have option sentiment forum lot indi there,Dear copy make them for us,and its Russian site use google translate.

 

Daily option settle: use news sources forexlive and talkingforex , daily we have some option level there and watch close one with our power levels ny section.

one book available option sentiment read trading against crowd -john f summa here

http://indo-investasi.com/showthread.php/14805-Trading-Against-the-Crowd-Profiting-from-Fear-and-Greed-in-Stock-Futures-and-Option?highlight=john+summa dont forget to thanks him.

 

Keep in mind Crowd always wrong Any market even option also,any market trade 24hr have lot herds,The real pro they only trade the exchange time only,so watch exchange open time,not 24*5

 

ya open interest OI is tricky one its need lot understanding,

 

sentiment indicators they have unique different property try to understand that.

and finally this things not going to help scalp trade so really sorry for scalper....:x

[spazzy252]

I am unable to download the spreadsheets linked in this forum or from the original Russian site http://zukkerro.ru/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=30 Would anyone be willing to either share the spreadsheets or mirror the dead links? Thank You for your help...

[wildeazoscar]

I think he is simply following the HOT ZONES and GOLDEN ZONES as laid down by Frankin Ochoa------ in his treatise called "PIVOT BOSS"

 

The beauty does not lie with the levels, but with the acceptance or rejection of them-----

[fxnizar]

When an order is too large to transact at the current price, the price moves to the point where open interest is abundant enough to cover it. Every time you see price move a single pip, it means that an order was executed that consumed (or otherwise removed) the open interest at the current price. There is no other way that prices can move.

i got it from FF .

key???

and why no one move little bit? am i wrong?

fxnizar

[mtuppers]

When an order is too large to transact at the current price, the price moves to the point where open interest is abundant enough to cover it. Every time you see price move a single pip, it means that an order was executed that consumed (or otherwise removed) the open interest at the current price. There is no other way that prices can move.

i got it from FF .

key???

and why no one move little bit? am i wrong?

fxnizar

 

yes that is what it is...

 

there is a day when usd/jpy went to 74 yens that is due to a group of lady they brought jpy at once form super big amount. after that boj sell jpy to get back to 77 yen level. someone tell me that for you to move a market need at less 10 million real cash.

[spazzy252]

I am unable to download the spreadsheets linked in this forum or from the original Russian site http://zukkerro.ru/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=30. I have registered with no success. Would anyone be willing to either share the spreadsheets. Thank You for your help...

[udc]

What happened?

 

So what's the conclusion on this one? Reading this thread, there was so much excitement and hundreds people were so desperately eager to get the "lifetime subscription" for free (in order to save 10 bucks a month, the cost of a lunch or a movie ticket), then all of sudden everybody just shut up, so to speak. Is everyone already a multimillionaire tanning in the Bahamas, or the "powerlevels" is a forgotten toy and people are after yet another holy grail?

 

Also, I just noticed the powerlevels.com website is gone, thus the whole service including the frontend Metatrader indicator stopped working. The domain details were just changed, up until 1st Oct it was:

  Registered through: GoDaddy.com, LLC (http://www.godaddy.com)
  Domain Name: FOREXPOWERLEVELS.COM
     Created on: 30-May-11
     Expires on: 30-May-13
     Last Updated on: 27-Apr-12

  Registrant:
  danny connolly
  42 longlands road
  sidcup da157lr
  United Kingdom

  Administrative Contact:
     connolly, danny  [email protected]
     42 longlands road
     sidcup da157lr
     United Kingdom
     +44.02083007627

  Technical Contact:
     connolly, danny  [email protected]
     42 longlands road
     sidcup da157lr
     United Kingdom
     +44.02083007627

  Domain servers in listed order:
     NS1.LINODE.COM
     NS2.LINODE.COM
     NS3.LINODE.COM
     NS4.LINODE.COM

Now it is:

  Registered through: GoDaddy.com, LLC (http://www.godaddy.com)
  Domain Name: FOREXPOWERLEVELS.COM
     Created on: 30-May-11
     Expires on: 30-May-13
     Last Updated on: 01-Oct-12

  Registrant:
  danny connolly
  42 longlands road
  sidcup da157lr
  United Kingdom

  Administrative Contact:
     connolly, danny  [email protected]
     42 longlands road
     sidcup da157lr
     United Kingdom
     +44.02083007627

  Technical Contact:
     connolly, danny  [email protected]
     42 longlands road
     sidcup da157lr
     United Kingdom
     +44.02083007627

  Domain servers in listed order:
     NS21.DOMAINCONTROL.COM
     NS22.DOMAINCONTROL.COM

 

So apparently c0py, alias danny connolly (alias server support engineer at Capita - http://uk.linkedin.com/pub/danny-connolly/47/875/8b9), has canceled his VPS hosting at Linode.

 

 

---

 

Anyway, regardless of any further c0py's actions, if anyone is still interested in these powerlevels and explains to me how exactly it is calculated with several examples, I can make a new and better indicator, with alarms, it will be for free, you will get the full source code, and most importantly - it will get the values for calculation directly from cmegroup.com so you will never ever be dependent on anyone, including me, or on any third party service no matter if free or paid.

 

But in that case the attitude will have to change and I will ask you to come up with some trading strategies, because I will do it in my spare time so it must be worth it. I have enough data from CME to recalculate the levels back since the January 2011 and 120 GB of tick-by-tick data for 28 currency pairs plus gold and silver so I can backtest any strategy.

[dave123]

Power levels - keep it simple - I use key weekly, daily levels and round numbers to help determine recent turning points in the market. I confirm a trade when price reaches a level and confirmation of a reversal at that point gets me into the trade.

 

KEY POINT: Trading with the trend at those levels is very good for the bank account.

 

In my experience, Patience is key to success.

[spazzy252]

UDC,

 

I am interested in helping with this project and have some background working with the levels. Can you PM your email address since I cannot PM yet.

Thank You,

[udc]

First I need to know exactly how it is calculated. Here is the data from c0py for the last 3 days it worked (Thursday, Friday, Monday):

 

http://imageshack.us/a/img21/2383/powerlevels.png

 

If you tell me exactly how those numbers (at least price and OI) were calculated then we can move forward. If you need more c0py's data I have plenty. I unfortunately can't spend my time figuring out the formulas myself, but if you do your part I do mine. I can give you my e-mail and I actually did some time ago in the other thread, but I would prefer to keep everything public. That's what I like about this forum that people are open to each other and I would like to keep it that way.

[nguyentho]

The copy'indicator doesnot work, I do not know why> Can you resolve it? Please help me. Thanks

[udc]

Unfortunately no one so far was able to demonstrate how exactly the lines are calculated so I can't make you new and better indicator.

[udc]

It doesn't seem anyone is still interested in these so called "power levels" which is quite interesting considering those hundreds of people full of enthusiasm last year. I wonder what may be the reason, whether they found out it's not working as they thought or whether they just feel ashamed that they fell for a scammer.

 

Anyway, with spazzy252's help here is what somewhat seems to be the scheme used to calculate c0py's power levels for a given date:

- from ftp://ftp.cmegroup.com/bulletin/ get a daily bulletin dated 2 days ago

- open a pdf for a respective symbol

- go to the next month call/put section (here, towards the end of a month, c0py sometimes went to the month after the next month)

- for a call level, take the settlement price, divide by 10, add it to the strike for a call option (or subtract it from the strike for a put option) and adjust to the fx quote format

 

The resulting price doesn't match exactly, the volume doesn't match at all, the open interest does match.

 

The question is why to use 2 days old bulletin for today's levels, instead of using the most recent bulletin (from yesterday). I would prefer using the most recent data.

Another question is why to use options data for the next month's expiry (and sometimes data for expiry of 2 months in the future) instead of the nearest expiry month (that is either the current month or the next month, depends if we are already past the current month expiry). This seems inconsistent to me, I would prefer either using the nearest expiry, or the expiry month with the highest open interest, or to take data from all expiries and sum them up.

 

What do you think?

 

 

EDIT: he may actually not be getting and processing the pdf bulletins at all and instead grabbing the information from the website where the open interest is shown for the prior day, that would explain 2 days old information, maybe the slight inconsistency in price, and maybe why volume doesn't match. Now the question remains from what expiry months would be the best to get the data.

Edited October 14, 2012 by udc

[islandtrader41]

udc,

 

I just recently logged on to my Metatrader after a short abscence and was shocked to see the powerlevels not working and to see the website no longer operational.

 

I will tell you that I have been watching the markets and studying indicators for over 7 years now and that these powerleves have been the most accurate support and resistance levels I have ever come across.

 

They certainly are not a holy grail but they do provide high probablity turn points...the highest I have ever seen.

 

I wish I could provide the algorithym but I simply am not sure how these number were derived other than using the CME options data.

 

Of interest though may be this product. It appears to be an excell spreadsheet that calcuates the same that is being offered on ebay. Your free, automated product sounds a LOT better and thank you for your very generous offer.

 

I have no affiliattion with this product at all. Only offering up a resource to provide you with the informaiton that you are looking for.

 

I hope it helps:

 

 

And Thank You for bringing this thread back to life and offering to help!

Edited October 16, 2012 by hermanhess
ebay link deleted please start a separate thread if you want to

[udc]

Now the question remains from what expiry months would be the best to get the data.

 

I've decided to give option to show the option levels for the nearest month expiry, or the nearest quarter-year month expiry, or both. That should be sufficient, I guess.

[udc]

spazzy252: you wanted to include some other instruments besides the currency pairs, right? Can you provide their respective links showing the table like what this one shows for EURUSD?

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/fx/g10/euro-fx_quotes_settlements_options.html

[udc]

Can anyone explain why the settlement is first adjusted before it's added to the strike price? The only case I found where the formulas "strike + premium" for calls and "strike - premium" for puts are using is in the breakeven points calculation, as described here on page 6:

http://www.cmegroup.com/education/files/options-on-futures-basics.pdf

 

But there the premium is not pre-adjusted before adding it to the strike. However in the power levels formula used here in this thread, which was probably taken from the russian page* the premium is first adjusted before adding to the strike, but there is no explanation for that and it doesn't seem to make any sense. It's more like some arbitrary decision of someone who just thought something like: "ok, what if I take this, add it to this, multiply it or divide it by that and put it on a chart? wow, this looks interesting".

 

* http://strike.opentraders.ru/851.html

 

 

I think using the breakeven point formula does make sense, it's basically the price where given underlying futures instrument must expire at so that the trader who bought this option and paid the premium can execute the option, get the underlying, immediately sell it and get all his money back. And since the futures quote for currencies is derived from the spot then it's logical that there will be "battles" on the spot market around those levels. But once more again - the settlement is added (or deducted) to the strike without any pre-adjustment. So I will do it that way.

[spazzy252]

UDC,

 

I agree that the breakeven formula makes sense for calculating the currencies levels.

 

Unfortunately the CME doesn’t provide the data in the exact format for the other markets like in the link you provide for the currencies. The CME is not very consistent in their methods of delivery of such data. I have confirmed this by emailing them. Unfortunately the data for other markets are only available in txt and pdf format. The markets I was looking at include (Gold, Oil, Silver, Grains and the indexes such as S&P, NQ, Dow etc).

 

Thank You,

Spazzy252

[udc]

Preview:

http://imageshack.us/a/img4/9962/optionslevels.png

 

It seems it does show something. Also, it's interesting that both expiry months come into play.

[tradershare]

Preview:

http://imageshack.us/a/img4/9962/optionslevels.png

 

It seems it does show something. Also, it's interesting that both expiry months come into play.

 

Hi udc,

 

Which line's color are for calls and puts ?

Green is for call ? White is for put ?

[udc]

No, calls and puts have the same color, which is which you can see in the description on the left. Green lines are the 11/12 expiry (nearest month expiry), gray ones are the 12/12 expiry (nearest quarter-year month expiry). You can change it, of course. Currently, you can use lines of up to 5 different thickness and for each line you can set a minimum OI and a color. All this you can set separately for each of both expiry months:

extern bool  UseNearestMonthExpiry=true;
extern color NearestMonthColorWidth1=ForestGreen;
extern int   NearestMonthMinOIforWidth1=300;
extern color NearestMonthColorWidth2=ForestGreen;
extern int   NearestMonthMinOIforWidth2=1000;
extern color NearestMonthColorWidth3=ForestGreen;
extern int   NearestMonthMinOIforWidth3=2000;
extern color NearestMonthColorWidth4=ForestGreen;
extern int   NearestMonthMinOIforWidth4=3000;
extern color NearestMonthColorWidth5=ForestGreen;
extern int   NearestMonthMinOIforWidth5=4000;
extern bool  UseQuarterYearMonthExpiry=true;
extern color QuarterYearMonthColorWidth1=DimGray;
extern int   QuarterYearMonthMinOIforWidth1=300;
extern color QuarterYearMonthColorWidth2=DimGray;
extern int   QuarterYearMonthMinOIforWidth2=1000;
extern color QuarterYearMonthColorWidth3=DimGray;
extern int   QuarterYearMonthMinOIforWidth3=2000;
extern color QuarterYearMonthColorWidth4=DimGray;
extern int   QuarterYearMonthMinOIforWidth4=3000;
extern color QuarterYearMonthColorWidth5=DimGray;
extern int   QuarterYearMonthMinOIforWidth5=4000;

However all this setting is common for both calls and puts. It didn't seem to me that there is a need to distinguish them as the "attacks" seem to me to be happening from up and down no matter whether it's a call or a put level. Would you like to have an option to set the colors individually?

[udc]

The CME is not very consistent in their methods of delivery of such data.

This is quite understatement, I would say it's a mess. They have the same table on the website and in pdf so you would logically expect to find there the same values in the same format. Values are the same but the format is not. Out of 6 currency pairs only in 1 case the format really matches. In other 4 cases the website table has inexplicably an additional zero in the strike column (e.g. instead 1050 there is 10500) and in 1 other case the website table has again inexplicably the settlement price shown as a thousandth of what is in pdf (e.g. instead 3.10 there is 0.00310). If they at least had the different format same for all the pairs then that might be perhaps partially understandable but almost every pair on the website has values in "differently different" format. It just makes you wonder how something like this could have ever happened and more importantly why don't they fix it.

 

 

Anyway, what tradershare indicated - to have different colors for Calls and Puts - seems as a good idea so I added this feature. Now the closest month is green/red and q-month is darker green/red. Also I added option to show the original strike and settle values in round brackets for reference.

 

Here is what it looks like on all 6 supported pairs (all in default setting MinOI=300, except on USDCHF I set MinOI=1):

http://imageshack.us/a/img90/5554/audusdn.png

http://imageshack.us/a/img62/1824/eurusds.png

http://imageshack.us/a/img72/272/gbpusdf.png

http://imageshack.us/a/img24/145/usdcado.png

http://imageshack.us/a/img571/9789/usdchfi.png

http://imageshack.us/a/img21/6749/usdjpyj.png

 

Now it shows correctly the break-even levels in the exact way as they are supposed to be calculated, without any arbitrary changes. That's also how it should be correctly called - Options break-even levels.

 

What's interesting, if you think about it, is that those levels are calculated from friday's settlements but if you look at the charts they pretty much work even for the previous days, kinda backwards in time. In other words, they don't change significantly from day to day. Which is a good thing because it means that if the level was good not only friday but also for several days before then there is quite a chance it will be good even monday (the next day).

 

So it seems this one is close to be finished, I will release it probably next week.

 

 

spazzy252: I think it could be doable to grab txt files from ftp.cmegroup.com via external DLL and then process them similarly to what I am doing now, but I am not promising anything. In any case, give me the list of instruments you would like, where I can find their respective txt files with the settlements info and also give me the respective Metatrader symbol names so I could match them together.

[tradershare]

However all this setting is common for both calls and puts. It didn't seem to me that there is a need to distinguish them as the "attacks" seem to me to be happening from up and down no matter whether it's a call or a put level. Would you like to have an option to set the colors individually?

 

I see. Thanks for explanation.

 

Anyway, what tradershare indicated - to have different colors for Calls and Puts - seems as a good idea so I added this feature. Now the closest month is green/red and q-month is darker green/red. Also I added option to show the original strike and settle values in round brackets for reference.

 

Thanks for these options, the pics are more pretty.

:)

 

Edited October 21, 2012 by tradershare