bd vest Posted July 13, 2011 Report Share Posted July 13, 2011 Good discussion on volume Vs. OI. Is very important one to understand. theory is since most options expire worthless, and brokers require huge margins to sell naked options for premium, the options sellers are smart big traders. Therefore the OI is caused mostly by Smart traders. So more the OI at a strike, the more smart traders gaming that level. But to make our small retail trade, we need to know are the smart players selling or buying the underlying when underlying price hit the strike? After the Power level, this is number one priority information before make the retail trade. Are large trader buying underlying at strike? or selling? The problem lie in defining volume. Volume is the result of OI being executed, so who is buying? Is it bigger smarter hedging? Or lots of retail directional sucker purchase the options? I believe we can figure out this "Smart" Vs. "Sucker" Options Volume only when underlying price is close to the strike. Then we are looking at the block volume at the Bid x Ask on time&sales of the underlying. For this we need analysis tools like Better Pro-Am indicator available on Ninjatrader and Fin-Alg's Market Balance tools that will dissect the information. Then we are confident to Buy at Power level support with no need for any stops, price go below purchase, we are confident from large volume on time&sales to add to position. No need for stops. Ability for trading without stops is very powerful strategy. For Forex since there is no volume, can use Tick data as substitute to watch big fish intention on underlying at strike. guedesjunior25 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bd vest Posted July 13, 2011 Report Share Posted July 13, 2011 (edited) Update on ES trade. First trade begin photo: http://indo-investasi.com/showthread.php/9491-Power-levels-trading/page46 We now can see the High PUT OI around the 1300 levels create support. This data is from last week options close data from CME, I don't have latest PUT OI or volume data. If someone can have that data, it would be good to see. http://img29.imageshack.us/img29/6594/powerlevelhighputoishow.png Logic: high OI for PUT imply smart traders selling PUTs to collect premium with no risk because they think of a bounce at 1300. Missing puzzle, what is change in option volume when price close to 1300 strike? I suspect volume > OI. If no one has updated volume for options ES data for 1300, we wait for end of this week to analyze this facts. Edited July 13, 2011 by bd vest Hakim314, guedesjunior25 and tradershare 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
guedesjunior25 Posted July 13, 2011 Report Share Posted July 13, 2011 Hi bd vest. With the Ds loader you can see the O.I and volume off ES every single day after market close. http://www.multiupload.com/UE94FSYDZ9 I tried to do Ninja work with free data but I could not. And the ProAM indicator i only find for the tradestation. If someone can help. bd vest 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hakim314 Posted July 13, 2011 Report Share Posted July 13, 2011 I have a good idea for people who are afraid to read a Tape, which is normal. I'm not surprised. You can always trade very safely and with high accuracy: from the bottom and the top of the levels. Then even 200 pips are guaranteed :) If You combine PA + VSA Signal bars, pls keep in mind that some VSA Signals are better visible or plotted on different TF's that is why is good to observe m15,m30,H1, H4 at the same time. For example, NOW at 9pm (GMT+1) GU plotted a BIG red dot above the candle means: Selling Climax which on so high TF means obvious reversal. Dot is plotted on H4, but is not visible on lower tf. @bd vest - You are amazing ! I really admire Your analytical mind. guedesjunior25 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hakim314 Posted July 14, 2011 Report Share Posted July 14, 2011 Today good signal lesson. http://img15.imageshack.us/img15/3226/todaylesson.png I hope that pic will be visible. ⭐ c0py, TheBeast, bd vest and 1 other 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hakim314 Posted July 14, 2011 Report Share Posted July 14, 2011 Today was a lucky day, or maybe... Luck = knowledge + patience + patience + patience + PA + VSA + Powers :) But I'm so tired, that never ever again :) 6 hours at monitor on m5 and 1H. Yes, these were aggressive ones sometimes, sometimes scalps around levels, result attached :-) http://img11.imageshack.us/img11/953/lucky14.png guedesjunior25 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hakim314 Posted July 14, 2011 Report Share Posted July 14, 2011 Live trading with Tom Williams, Richard Seegers and Gavin Holmes Today at 7.30pm Chicago time Join fomer sysndicate trader Tom Williams, FOREX fund manager Richard Seegers and Professional trader Gavin Holmes as they demonstrate the power of using Volume Spread Analysis. Gavin and Tom will trade thier live accounts looking at the futures markets and Richard will trade his live account. They will explain thier entries and exits using TradeGuider. There is no charge or obligatiion to attend this event. FREE WEBINAR EVENTS - REGISTER HERE, ONLY 39 PLACES REMAIN AS THE ROOM HAS A 1000 PLACE LIMIT Today Thursday 14th July 7.30am to 9.30am CST Chicago time https://www2.gotomeeting.com/register/140270395 (http://click.icptrack.com/icp/relay.php?r=96991829&msgid=718990&act=XPM2&c=537180&destination=https%3A%2F%2Fwww2.gotomeeting.com%2Fregister%2F140270395) Use the Volume Spread Analysis method to identify where the "Smart Money" are positioning their trades in the major currency pairs. I wish you good trading and constant profits, bd vest and pikkuhenry 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bd vest Posted July 15, 2011 Report Share Posted July 15, 2011 Hi bd vest. With the Ds loader you can see the O.I and volume off ES every single day after market close. http://www.multiupload.com/UE94FSYDZ9 I tried to do Ninja work with free data but I could not. And the ProAM indicator i only find for the tradestation. If someone can help. That is a convenient tool. I missed it when I read the thread before. I wonder what link it is downloading the daily information. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bd vest Posted July 15, 2011 Report Share Posted July 15, 2011 Few more observations on Volume Vs. Open Interest for ES, don't know about forex. Relative chage in Cumulative Options Volume ( Put + Call ) > 1000% acts as price magnet for immediate next few days. High OTM Options (Put+Call) Volume change of > 1000% act like strong attractor zones Increase in Options activity in strikes below or above yesterday close Strike can predicts tomorrows direction And Ranging behavior Need more weeks observation with at least 20 data point to validate these observations. So my lesson is this is more like Art than Science. Not the holy grail, but for experienced trader, is close enough. I post some chart later to show what I thinking guedesjunior25 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bd vest Posted July 15, 2011 Report Share Posted July 15, 2011 Below is ES chart with what I think are Power Zones for tomorrow Friday July 16 regular trading day. I analyze the relative change in Volume > 100% and relative change in OI > 10% to show interest on those levels. Following Image show relative change in options volume and OI to indicate important zones http://img220.imageshack.us/img220/5520/charttotradeesonfridayj.png guedesjunior25 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bd vest Posted July 15, 2011 Report Share Posted July 15, 2011 http://img814.imageshack.us/img814/1812/july14optionschains1270.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bd vest Posted July 15, 2011 Report Share Posted July 15, 2011 http://img15.imageshack.us/img15/7215/july14optionschains1305.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bd vest Posted July 15, 2011 Report Share Posted July 15, 2011 On chart, I can explain what it mean by "Sell below here" or "Buy above here". Every market exhibit certain behavior like individual. Even during the day, every market have different personality. During open it act certain way, during mid day another way, during close another way. So most important information you can have for your market is the AIR ( Average intraday range ) from high of day to low of the day. Then within this AIR there is also the MxIR ( Major intraday range) and also several MnIR (minor intraday range). For now I pass on explain the MxIR and MnIR, because with Power Level, the AIR is enough. So I give you how I can trade the power level. I can take 5 day AIR for my market before today market open. After market open, I look at the relative change in options vol and OI for Strikes @ Open+AIR and @Open - AIR If there are strikes exceed +/- AIR that show bigger change in relative volume >100% and OI > 10% , then we can suspect a trending day action towards the Strike level with maximum action. If at open, options don't change much, then we can suspect a ranging day action. So if we can suspect a ranging day action, then when price hit power level, we go counter trend. If I can suspect a trending day action, when price hit power level, I can not make a trade but I look for retest of the power level and sell into the level. For tomorrow Friday, I can expect a ranging day and if price break below the pivot then we can see ES move lower towards 1280 power level guedesjunior25, TheBeast and tradershare 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjames Posted July 19, 2011 Report Share Posted July 19, 2011 Just a quick question for ya oiltraders i am using the powerlevels now on eu and i like them pretty much. But on oil the scripts doeant work for me which broker you use for oil and which contract hope someone can answer this thank you verry much. regards JJ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezclick Posted July 19, 2011 Report Share Posted July 19, 2011 Hello! Due to popular demand I have updated the script again, now we have labels for the lines showing rank # and open interest value :) http://img577.imageshack.us/img577/4049/91008602.gif To see the labels ensure your chart has the option enabled here as below: http://img692.imageshack.us/img692/2464/descriptionsz.png Download v005 here: Note: To ensure data is ranked correctly you need to delete all previous CSV files in the experts/files folder. This is because the data is ordered by open interest in all new downloads. what is the username n password for this script?thanks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezclick Posted July 19, 2011 Report Share Posted July 19, 2011 what is the username n password for this script?thanks already found it.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trader99 Posted July 19, 2011 Report Share Posted July 19, 2011 Hey Ezclick....password on post #409 page 40 of the thread T99 guedesjunior25 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
guedesjunior25 Posted July 20, 2011 Report Share Posted July 20, 2011 (edited) Just a quick question for ya oiltraders i am using the powerlevels now on eu and i like them pretty much. But on oil the scripts doeant work for me which broker you use for oil and which contract hope someone can answer this thank you verry much. regards JJ Also not work on mine. Maby its because of the spradsheet. They gave more zeros that the platform supports. Its my mistake, i will try to fix it. Edited July 20, 2011 by guedesjunior25 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hakim314 Posted July 21, 2011 Report Share Posted July 21, 2011 For those who liked VSA (doesnt matter what say about fx volume) there is something precious. http://indo-investasi.com/showthread.php/12304-Todd-Kureger-WVA-and-WCVA-Course-%28Wyckoff-Volume-Candle-Analyse%29 guedesjunior25 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hakim314 Posted July 21, 2011 Report Share Posted July 21, 2011 It helps me much. It plots on one chart S/R zones from different TF. In example, when You sit on m5, You will H1 and H4 resistance, it's another improvement with VSA. Enjoy ! http://www.megaupload.com/?d=59PLFQ77 guedesjunior25 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bd vest Posted July 21, 2011 Report Share Posted July 21, 2011 (edited) For the DSLoader Plus tool, is there direct CME website link for the daily ES option data tool is downloading ? The CME links I have not same data as what DSLoader is giving me. Thank you. Edited July 21, 2011 by bd vest Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hakim314 Posted July 21, 2011 Report Share Posted July 21, 2011 I found something else today. Look now (1pm) on GU at m5. The price is dancing for good an hour around 61290 which is above the PL-5, and the price bounce back and going up. You know what the level is that price respect it ? Last Week Close. Stronger then PL ? or only temporary. bd vest 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bd vest Posted July 21, 2011 Report Share Posted July 21, 2011 I found something else today. Look now (1pm) on GU at m5. The price is dancing for good an hour around 61290 which is above the PL-5, and the price bounce back and going up. You know what the level is that price respect it ? Last Week Close. Stronger then PL ? or only temporary. Was last week close near a power level or high relative change in volume? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bd vest Posted July 21, 2011 Report Share Posted July 21, 2011 Hi, you do not need to manually download any csv files, the script does this for you :) They will be placed in your experts/files folder after the script is applied to your chart. Mr C0py, can you please provide the website link I can download daily ES options data? The DSLoader tool is missing recent July options activity and September options for ES is at a level no aligned with market. Not sure if the tool is broken. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crodzilla Posted July 21, 2011 Report Share Posted July 21, 2011 Anyone else notice that EURUSD power levels ranked #1, 2 and 3 are all put options. Which, as of this morning are below current price. It took this week to do it. So, the put option sellers made some serious money. Hmm, will have to keep an eye on the configuration of OI's in the future. guedesjunior25 1 Quote MarketCycle-360.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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