75 consecutive losses, could winning be as easy?

[germeten]

I'm a newbie who needs desperately to learn about settings. My first robot purchase was FTS (Forex Trading Scalper); the author claimed 97% win rate, but when I ran it on live account, the roller-coaster was hair raising waste of time, and default settings on backtests don't show his claimed results. So I fiddle with settings and get attached results. Now this is obviously bad and yet logic says that anything so consistently bad should be possible to reverse, or traded oppositely.

 

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...and then later good AND bad (zig-zag from top to bottom) and finally this:

 

http://imgur.com/uVjw8.gif' alt='uVjw8.gif'>

 

Why do these backtest data change, over a few hours/days, even when no trading?

I see some powerful and consistent undercurrents (even if lose 100%) but don't know how to turn them in my favor. If you can't disclose the entire store, could someone at least nudge me in the right direction? Thanx.@-)

[PhiSquared2618]

I assume you have already tried reversing the system signals on paper trading and found that this does not work either?

If not you might consider studying trading dicipline now.

 

The lesson is that systems don't beat the market, the market beats systems.

How does the market do this? It evolves to do it. It changes its behaviour.

So if your system is not robust it can not deal with even tiny changes in market behaviour.

 

So the hunt for the holy grail .... is a waste of time.

But you can not move on until you realise this.

Now is the time to study what the market can do, and when it changes, and what are the signs it gives us that it is changing.

This knowledge may get you into the position that you have a reasonable idea of when your system will work, and when it will fail.

Then you can recognise what are the signs of when to switch this system on and off, or when to use a different system altogether.

[germeten]

Dear PhiSquared2618;

 

I have only been watching market for maybe a month. I can see mornings are busy-time for Eur/USD and evenings for USD/JPY but beyond that, cannot see any consistent patterns where I trust myself to go in and out for pips. I was hoping a good EA would codify the required nerves and discipline. The authors I've studied so far seem superficial. One spoke about double doji as his favorite signal but i noticed the market never reacts predictably one way or other to this "indicator." Everyone has their styles and philosophies. Personally I like the 1 minute candles. Someone mentioned the "RAT" method that only goes one direction. Initially that's what OCO_visual did, all wins one direction. That tells me there's something to trading with the candle and tight stops close to entry points and incremental trailing stops; that's the only "grail" I need, only wish someone could tell me which EA and what settings to apply. Even a ranging market has enough movement for scalping. Is a waste of time sitting in front of computer unless you enjoy it.

[4xinvestor]

if you think you can buy an EA and it will make you money in the forex market...good luck.

[PhiSquared2618]

I have only been watching market for maybe a month..

Consider watching it for six months to a year before risking real money and losing. This is not a long time to learn the behaviour of a complex creature.

You can paper trade until then and evaluate if you know enough so far.

 

cannot see any consistent patterns where I trust myself to go in and out for pips.

The equity charts you posted suggests your decision is correct, until something or several things change.

 

I was hoping a good EA would codify the required nerves and discipline.

It might do this. But do you know how to choose the correct EA yet?

 

The authors I've studied so far seem superficial. One spoke about double doji as his favorite signal but i noticed the market never reacts predictably one way or other to this "indicator."

There is no magic bullet. There is only understanding of the hints the market gives from time to time.

 

Everyone has their styles and philosophies.

The styles and philosophies may all be good at times, and bad at other times.

 

Personally I like the 1 minute candles.

Do you know why? Do you get a better insight with this chart form? If so stick with it and learn more. If you are not sure, use these but also learn more about other chart forms too, so you can make another choice later when you are better informed.

 

only wish someone could tell me which EA and what settings to apply.

The market tells you all anybody knows, and more than anybody else can tell you.

 

Even a ranging market has enough movement for scalping.

I think you should learn about support and resistance, if you do not already know this area of study. Then you can know when the market is ranging or trending from this moment forwards. Anybody can tell you if was ranging yesterday, but that is not helpful. You need to know what stops it doing the one, and change to doing the other - as the change occurs.

 

Is a waste of time sitting in front of computer unless you enjoy it.

I hope you find the study of trading enjoyable. It is like learning to dance to many styles of music and at the same time like learning to surf all the different kinds of waves, and like learning to fly an airplane through invisible but really turbulent air.

 

I suggest you have a read of:

Technical Analysis of the Futures Market by John Murphy

Trading is a Business by Joe Ross

Volume and Open Interest by Ken Shaleen

and

The Undeclared Secrets of the Stock Market (or Master The Markets) by Tom Williams

Master The Markets can be downloaded here: http://www.tradeguider.com/mtm_251058.pdf

[prattpot]

I have become very cynical about robots and the broker's manipulation or advantage over traders incorporating them in their trading platform. You often hear about Brokers in the business of Stop hunting and unless you are willing to adapt or have the "know how" to change your strategy then you are at odds at losing.

 

Just a point that was brought to my attention have a look at this.

 

http://img412.imageshack.us/img412/920/metaquotesvirtualdealer.jpg

[germeten]

I guess i like one minute charts because of my basic impatience to see results. I know that's not a quality for being a good trader tho. To be honest i really don't like the markets any more than I like banks, only realize that's where the money is. I'm not interested in patterns that take time to develop, only single candles. My logic is if you can make money (or at least not lose money) in one candle, the rest will take care of themselves. Too simplistic? Maybe. But my EA concept is simple too. Would someone help me develop it? Thank you all.

 

PS-- Something I forgot to mention. Thinkforex is a STP-ECN broker who gets paid by how much you trade; they don't take positions against traders. Their pip spreads are low, they like robots (even scalpers) and their VPN's are free if you do 4 lots per month, otherwise $40. No I'm not getting paid to say this.

Edited September 20, 2010 by germeten

[Guest hftlh]

that's a great EA. all you need to do is trade against the EA and you get 75 consecutive wins.

[germeten]

You mock me.

[johnjet]

No I think he made sense LOL. Maybe you should try coding it to place a reverse signal 10x the lot size and close the position the moment the first signal closes.

 

BTW I think that robots do make good trades, but I guess you need to weed out the bullshit first. I would think 5% per month is a good return for a trading robot.

[germeten]

I was able to bring the scalper settings back into profit again, but it's a hair-raising roller-coaster just for a few pips per trade. I'd like something more unidirectionally certain, (like a passing freight) to invest bigger lot size without margin call, maybe double the account a few times per month, and YES, I realize how risky and totally unrealistic that sounds. Edited September 24, 2010 by germeten

[johnjet]

Most scalping robots I have seen has like 500 SL and 10 TP. It would definitely give the equity curve a nice line.

[germeten]

Maybe you should try coding it to place a reverse signal 10x the lot size and close the position the moment the first signal closes.

 

That's an interesting idea.

 

I play with settings some more and get my scalper graph in the positive, but trouble is it takes person on extreme roller-coaster to win just a few pips, and even single lot size would be stopped out by a margin call.

 

Robots aside, is there way of programming a buy or sell and close ahead of time, where the pip gains are known and certain? Then I could do as you suggest. Even a few pips could double my account ($500.) which I need to get up there to reach self-supporting income level. I'm learning about pending and limit orders but unsure how to use these to advantage that way. Is there risk in setting these up, a person could still get stopped out? That would be very bad with one's whole nest egg invested.

Edited September 24, 2010 by germeten