Naked charts with trendlines only

[syk1kz]

GBPUSD near bottom trendline support

 

http://a.imageshack.us/img714/2425/gbpusddaily81310.gif

[syk1kz]

watching euraud

 

http://a.imageshack.us/img580/808/eurauddaily81310.gif

 

http://a.imageshack.us/img580/9651/gbchfh481310.gif

Edited August 13, 2010 by syk1kz

[syk1kz]

ok so euraud has pulled back inside its "floor" as we will call it. besides being so close to the weekend i am not looking to enter any more positions, i will sit on the 2 i am currently in.

 

USDJPY hasent really done much, went from +30pips back to -50 and back to entry level as of this post.

 

staying with this one usdjpy will well due for a bounce up and with our candlestick confirmation along with rsi this trade is looking pretty good in my view.

 

GBPCHF was taken on a drawback of the break i posted yesterday, you can view both charts to see where i entered, and hopefully why.

 

i am considering stopping the intraday signals thread as i dont think anybody will benefit from it a great deal, does anybody actually view it ? if so please post in there or i will just abandon it

[THANKS]

ok so euraud has pulled back inside its "floor" as we will call it. besides being so close to the weekend i am not looking to enter any more positions, i will sit on the 2 i am currently in.

 

USDJPY hasent really done much, went from +30pips back to -50 and back to entry level as of this post.

 

staying with this one usdjpy will well due for a bounce up and with our candlestick confirmation along with rsi this trade is looking pretty good in my view.

 

GBPCHF was taken on a drawback of the break i posted yesterday, you can view both charts to see where i entered, and hopefully why.

 

i am considering stopping the intraday signals thread as i dont think anybody will benefit from it a great deal, does anybody actually view it ? if so please post in there or i will just abandon it

 

Please continue with this thread. Love it. What is your intraday thread?

 

I trade D1 and H4 TF and use Trendlines, S&R( fib included,00 numbers etc) and divergence like yourself.

 

Also from aussieland. So very happy to meet another trader with the same timezone.

[syk1kz]

this thread will stay, the other thread is directly under this one, called intraday setups with rsi

 

euraud looking like a potential setup for monday, if it wasent friday i would jump in now

 

http://a.imageshack.us/img580/8231/eurauddaily481310o.gif

 

http://a.imageshack.us/img580/8329/euraudh481310.gif

Edited August 13, 2010 by syk1kz

[syk1kz]

usdjpy has started to move again, back to +50pips now it is however approaching its first hurdle again so a close above here will encourage me to enter into another position

 

chart zoomed in for easy identification purposes

http://a.imageshack.us/img580/1530/usdjpydaily81310.gif

 

 

that weird looking trendline you can see on the 2 daily bars, was from the 4hourly chart, which i have just updated. that is why the RSI line at the bottom of the H4 chart isnt matching up either, its from the daily, i just change timeframes and do what i need to, so please dont get to confused :)

 

this scenario will make or break this trade i think, remember we entered of daily candle stick analysis and rsi divergence, but anything can and will happen in forex

 

http://a.imageshack.us/img580/6055/usdjpyh481310.gif

 

 

maybe a short eurgbp for monday after a rebound? note RSI on 4 hourly is oversold so entering now is ill advised

 

http://a.imageshack.us/img824/5186/eurgbpdaily81310.gif

http://a.imageshack.us/img824/3449/eurgbp4h81310.gif

Edited August 13, 2010 by syk1kz

[syk1kz]

i would like to gauge how many people are viewing this, besides THANKS who posted above.

 

show of hands anybody ??

[THANKS]

i would like to gauge how many people are viewing this, besides THANKS who posted above.

 

show of hands anybody ??

 

If you see the FORUM thread for technical analysis.... 300+ have viewed this thread.

[syk1kz]

If you see the FORUM thread for technical analysis.... 300+ have viewed this thread.

 

ok i should of worded it differently, how many people are actively following these setups ? or atleast paying attention to them ?

 

also expect a big post sunday with lots of charts :)

[syk1kz]

usdjpy holing onto its gains as expected, however i see quiet a hurdle for it to overcome to break this bearish trend it seems to be in. will follow up with more about this on sunday, but for now here an updated chart with the current trade

 

http://a.imageshack.us/img821/9653/usdjpyh481410.gif

[syk1kz]

gbpchf trade is only down 15pips, it hasent really done much apart from threaten stoploss once

 

i know this is a tight stoploss for such a volatile aand big moving pair, but the idea here is to catch the breakout [ which i missed ] or the retrace / test of old support or resistance

 

http://a.imageshack.us/img821/6504/gbpchfh481410.gif

[syk1kz]

so we are going to finish the week with usdjpy +30pips and gbpchf floating pretty much dead on entry level.

 

enjoy the weekend all i will be back for sundays update

 

http://a.imageshack.us/img821/5409/gbpchfh481410y.gif

 

http://a.imageshack.us/img821/8794/usdjpyh481410l.gif

Edited August 13, 2010 by syk1kz

[THANKS]

My GBPCHF chart

 

http://img837.imageshack.us/img837/3460/gbpchfd1.jpg

 

 

I like RSI 8 Median Price as my setting. It is more suitable to see divergence and sensitive to Price action.

 

I use Fib levels also as S&R.

 

In this GBPCHF I see confluence of 61% Fib + Support as the next Target Profit level.

 

I also find using line charts helps me see Price action clearer. I have sRs guru's pdf included to show where I learnt this simple and useful KISS strategy.

 

http://www.4shared.com/enter.jsp?sId=C68Q4nEXgEsHoFxP&au=1

 

See next post for H4 image

Edited August 14, 2010 by THANKS

[THANKS]

http://img818.imageshack.us/img818/801/gbpchfh4.jpg

 

H4 chart of GBPCHF from previous post.

 

Had difficulty in posting two images in the same post

[syk1kz]

agreed line chart in the better for drawing trendlines, thanks for mentioning this, and to be honest i have been lazely lately and just drawing rough lines to give the general idea to people, i am not going to sit there and do every single chart through lines when i am not trading with them it would just get to much for me to handle, but to be fair if i am taking a live trade then my trendlines are always drawn on line charts rather than candles

[syk1kz]

i disagree with your rsi settings however, i believe if a move is real enough and has enough momentum then using default settings will provide the better trading opportunites, you even say it is more senstive, this means it is also moer sensitive to fakeouts, in this thread we use default RSI settings for all my charts for said reasons.

 

Again if a move has enough momentum and we are using the default settings, any overbought/sold conditions will have more meeaning than a lower setting, this is not to say the above mentioned setting it bad, it just means i dont use or like it personally.

 

sorry if these seemed like i was attacking your charts, im not i am merly pointing out why i am using default settings over lower values.

 

obviously if we raise the value from 14 then the trading opportunites greatly decrease, but the value of the signals increases

reverse for lower, we get more signals, or sensitivity, but they dont always provide the better trading opportunites, if that makes sense...

[syk1kz]

pictures speak clearer than words really, but i need them aswell

 

ok so lets take the recent eurusd h4 chart as an example of why we are using default settings in this thread rather than lower values

 

i have numbered these for easy understanding, hopefully

 

for the purpose of this post default rsi will be referred to as RSI and custom will be CRSI

 

1 - both signal overbought, maybe you got stopped out maybe you didnt, note the divergence where the price went higher but the rsi did not.

 

2 - again both signal overbought, price did indeed drop as one would hope, these are indicators remember not predictors.

 

3 - so CRSI has an overbought signal, but default does not, maybe you made some pips maybe you got stopped out, higher probability is you got stopped out, this is a 4hourly chart, i doubt you set your tp to 50pips or so ? what do i know maybe you did :) anyway for arguements sake this was a looser in my books, a 4hourly chart would require a larger TP than 50pips for my 1:2 risk reward scenario, and if we were to attempt 1:3, then this trade was most certainly a looser on either R:R scenario, would you set a stoploss of 25pips on a 4hourly chart? you better be good with your entries if so

 

4 - moving along to 4, CRSI signals again and a flat out looser, sorry dont care what you say, notice default has no 3 or 4 because it did not signal for either of those

 

5 - RSI and CRSI both signalling here that price is overbought, again note the divergence, if we were to enter on either signal, depending on our risk:reward and personal trading style, maybe you got stopped out or maybe u hung around for the drop, who knows, to keep things fair lets say we did indeed get stopped out for whatever reason

 

6 - so whats interesting here is that bottom RSI price hits overbought yet again but the default just misses out by 0.5 hitting a high of 69.5, so technically not overbought for an entry using default, so lets assume we entered on the bottom RSI and went short, but what about us guys using default who got stopped out earlier? we dont get to re enter like those other people did, or do we? The point of this thread is trendlines and rsi, so i can clearly see a 4hour trendline that held for some days with just my eyes, it is visible on the chart below, if you need to get a ruler or piece of paper and find it on your screen. so the trendline breaks and we note the divergence, thats a signal in my book with a stop above the highest high visible, then follow the divergence and the momentum down.

 

7 - i missed the oversold action earlier so there is a signal from CRSI which RSI did not have that moved into profit nicely.

 

so lets note a few things, specifically the 2 sets of numbers under the signals 5 and 6 using CRSI, what i dont like here is the fact that first CRSI moves into overbought giving a reading of 79, then it returns to give a reading of 76. Now lets compare to RSI which reads at 73 then 69.5 now the reading between the 2 isnt that great really RSI only differs 3.5 from its previous reading, and CRSI only differs 3 from its previous reading, so pretty close so far, but after the second CRSI overbought signal [ #6 ] it reads at a whopping 76 this time meaning yes divergence is present, but only just, any higher and there is a high possibility that divergence would not show up on the CRSI while RSI is still reading the divergence. this along with the overbought reading is enough of a reason to turn me away from using anything lower than the default settings. i want less but more reliable signals and thats exactely what default brings to the table

 

http://a.imageshack.us/img714/2103/eurusdh4rsi.gif

 

sorry for overdoing it but i wanted to explain things is small detail rather than simply saying, i dont agree with your settings, by that i mean i dont agree with them for myself or the purpose of this thread, but please keep posting your charts it does not bother me

 

also if you want 2 pics in the one post do it like this

 

link.to.pic

link.to.pic

 

and so on

Edited August 14, 2010 by syk1kz

[syk1kz]

when it comes to something like stochastics i guess the opposite would apply in my view

 

stochastics default settings are horrible sensitive and relay waaaaaaaaay to many fake signals

 

this thread does cover stoch and i will not go into detail or post pictures, i suggest you place stoch on a hourly chart or above with default settings, then try 15,5,5 and look at the quality of signals compared to default

 

i should point out i am referring to slow stochastics and not fast stochastics, fast isnt even worth mentioning in my view

Edited August 14, 2010 by syk1kz

[syk1kz]

i guess my point is it is up to each individual to identify a balance between solid opportunities and the amount of trades they want to take advantage of and the quality of those signals

[syk1kz]

Hi all here is part of this weeks update, i will not be covering all 15 pairs that i watch it will simply take to much time but i will cover all majors, anything being traded, and anything else i feel that has potential. i will keep fundamental analysis to a minimum because it is not my strong point but if required it will be mentioned with the appropriate charts.

 

EURUSD weekly chart with fibo, not much to say here really expect see eurjpy analysis below

 

http://a.imageshack.us/img63/5692/eurusdweekly81610.gif

 

EURUSD swapped to the daily and what appears to be some small support marked with the fluro pink line.

Note that the daily and weekly have only just popped through the 38.2% retracement and is probably heading towards the 50% or 61.8% where it is likely to stall significantly. I do note another possible support at 1.24700 level which is just above the 61.8% [ or there abouts ]

 

Should also note that RSI is oversold on the 240min chart and being 30pips from a possible support level. A possible trade might be to go short once price breaks said support and comes back to retest, also bringing rsi out of oversold. the retest may be of either the 14.6% level at 1.312, 23.6% fib at around 1.29900 or the market line on the chart, higher probability is one of the fib levels. S/L could be placed above the test of the fib level. and shoot for around the 50%-61.8% retracement. - i would look to enter of the 4 hourly chart

 

http://a.imageshack.us/img26/6932/eurusddaily81610g.gif

 

 

 

USDCHF weekly chart with fibo, this time we note usdchf has been consolidating for quiet some time and i am not sure how relevant the fibo is at this stage. trendlines have been drawn using candles rather than line as i believe with this pair the candles will hold the key to breaking out, drawing with linechart does not include the high and low just the open and close meaning if we base our breakout on the open and close we will get a false signal once the candle closes above the line but below our trigger of 1.06200

 

http://a.imageshack.us/img839/9713/usdchfweekly81610t.gif

 

anyway here it is zoomed into the daily chart and i still am waiting for a move above 1.06 with some convincing momentum and follow through, this will probably loosely confirm the eurusd drop aswell, for now i would sit and wait with this pair for a breakout of somekind.

 

http://a.imageshack.us/img839/6743/usdchfdaily81610v.gif

 

 

 

GBPUSD daily chart only here. After a failed break of 1.60 the bears took ovefr somewhat and have forced price action well within the outlined channel, entering a position here would be ill advised i would wait for this trendline to playout, i think price will remain confined somewhat and retest 1.60 at which point should we see another fail one might look to get short with a stop above the failed 1.60 mark

 

http://a.imageshack.us/img839/530/gbpusddaily81610.gif

 

 

 

USDJPY weekly chart, well i am glad i am already long on this pair as i see a double bottom on the weekly chart, which is also visible on the daily chart

 

http://a.imageshack.us/img651/8422/usdjpyweekly81610.gif

 

daily chart of usdjpy with my entry stoploss and TP marked on the chart. This was previously explained when entered so i will not go into detail really, flick back a page if you want that. i will say that this pair needs to seriously move this week otherwise my trade will fail and new lows are almost a certain, but we also have rumours of BOJ intervention if the yen moves into positive to much more as the economy is hurting over exports. this is all speculation and we will see if there is any truth should the current trend previals.

Note the wedge and outer trendlines, also note the candle stick formation on which we based our trade, along with divergence present on the daily rsi

 

http://a.imageshack.us/img837/2938/usdjpydaily81610.gif

 

 

AUDUSD daily chart, well last week the audusd audjpy nzdusd all broke out to the downside in a massive way i have only posted audusd as i am starting to get hasseled by people to get of the computer for a while :) anyway audusd i pretty much favour the downside from here out, we have alot of room to move either up or down and i would look for a bounce to the upside to get short, maybe some positive news will give the push back towards 0.90000 level where i am sure selling pressure will drive the pair back down.

 

note we are hitting support that is visable as far back as october 09

 

http://a.imageshack.us/img831/4811/audusddaily81610.gif

 

 

 

 

 

im going to cover gbpchf later and eurjpy aswell for now digest what you see and as i note more setups i will post them throughout the week

 

still watching euraud usdchf gbpjpy [ still in its triangle, look back a page or so ]

Edited August 15, 2010 by syk1kz

[syk1kz]

fair bit of yen news this morning but because none of it is considered high impact or market moving i will not look to close out the usdjpy trade

 

i do see 3 high impact usd releases later this week but we will look at those closer to the expected release time, as per the first post we must be flat for high impact news, although lately usdjpy has been somewhat ignoring news and doing its own thing, negative yen news does not seem to really help the usd much.

will cover it closer to release time

Edited August 15, 2010 by syk1kz

[syk1kz]

GBPCHF - daily chart here seems i got lucky with my TP level as it is dead on the 61.8% retracement level. See previous post last page for entry details and specific TP level.

anyway i will monitor this one for a possible reversal and update when required otherwise there is some high impact news tomorrow for GBP and i will probably look to exit before the news

 

http://a.imageshack.us/img152/638/gbpchfdaily81610c.gif

[syk1kz]

here some gold action

 

http://a.imageshack.us/img214/7733/golddaily81610.gif

[syk1kz]

gonna set a pending short for this setup i think as i favour the downside from here.

http://a.imageshack.us/img152/2075/gbpjpy.gif

[syk1kz]

should also mention both usdjpy and gbpchf have turned around into negative

 

www.mt4i.com/users/pipstealer