London Open Breakout

[kraven]

hope your feeling better Freddie, i've pulled around a fair bit.

 

Never heard of 'fx super sensation' but 4 til 6 will probably lead to some wins but equaly many false breakouts.

 

the one i'd like to get is 'london forex open system'. i don't think it'll be anything special but i'd still like to see it.

[Freddie]

Hi Kraven, yes, lots better. Don't know what it was!!

 

As usual I got the name around my neck!! It was Forex Supersonic. Agree about the LFOS, like to see what the special bit is to negate the false starts.

 

Got to go, speak later

[naranjablue]

Hi,

 

the last weeks i read many stuff about the London Breakout, but i have the problem with the GMT Time.

 

So my Broker is Activtrades, they are GMT 0 because they are in London. Now i must set my lines from 4 to 6 in the MT4 Chart?

 

That will be 23 - 1 at my Local time.

 

Thanks

[Freddie]

Hi Naranjablue,

London now is on BST or DST so they are GMT + 1, (I think).

I am not going any further with this because I get it wrong too often. There is a post a few pages back which explains it perfectly.

 

KRAVEN, says that our UK news time is around 9.15 so using the 4 to 6 will get you caught up in the whipsaw. That is why I am not a supporter of these overnight or part of the night (UK) time.

 

I am now inclined to use 10 to 10:30 as my range - see my pics in other posts.

 

Hope that this helps

 

Freddie

[kraven]

hello all,

i was just going through one of my old trading journals (i used to right all my trades down)and just though i'd post about a strategy i used a long while back when i used to work shifts. As you'd expect it's a breakout system which is similar to one i've already mentioned here. It's set and forget so it's ideal if you work.

Again GBP/USD is used, this time 30min or 1hr TF. you take the 6am and the 7am candles (2 candles if 1hr tf). you set your BUY 3pips above the high and SELL 3pips below low. SL is the size of the box, TP is size of the box. and often give a nice range of 40-50pips. with both directions covered if you get a false breakout one way more often then not you'll win in the other direction giving you a BE.

I used to have a 70+ success rate with this and it's the one that go me interested in set-time breakouts and convinced me I could eek out an existance as a trader. Pop up a 1hr G/U chart and back check for a month, you'll see how good it is ; )

I'm sure Freddie could put on of his superb pics to explain.

Edited August 1, 2010 by kraven

[naranjablue]

Hi,

 

thanks for your help. I will make some test next week with different Settings. In the Chart it looks good between 7 to 9 (Broker Time) back until first of July (more then less)

[Freddie]

Was just about to do that when I thought...Is this not the one on post#64?

Same times but #64 requires a 5min candle to pop out whereas #80 is a three pip buffer top and bottom. #64 also requires finish by 0800.

Don't think that the differences warrent calling them different.

 

Freddie

[kraven]

As with all box-breakouts it's similar but there's big differences. we are taking 2hrs as our box not just 1hr. it basicaly gives a little extra room for false breaks.

 

so our breakout box for today would be .5751 to .5713 (38) you can include the spread in this,i don't i add it to my target. it broke .5751 so TG is 38 + 2spread = 40 or .5791. TG hit at 8:45 +40

 

 

today was a good example of how london reverses frankfurt, using this system we don't get in on frankfurt but use it as our breakout plus we use the last solo hour of Asian.

On the previous one #64 we use the last solo Asian hour and only trade frankfurt.

Edited August 2, 2010 by kraven

[Freddie]

You had me worried there, I know that I am getting old and forgetting things but they are both 6 to 7! Maybe a typo. The other one is 6 to 8 then?

 

Freddie

[pauli79]

As with all box-breakouts it's similar but there's big differences. we are taking 2hrs as our box not just 1hr. it basicaly gives a little extra room for false breaks.

 

so our breakout box for today would be .5751 to .5713 (38) you can include the spread in this,i don't i add it to my target. it broke .5751 so TG is 38 + 2spread = 40 or .5791. TG hit at 8:45 +40

 

 

today was a good example of how london reverses frankfurt, using this system we don't get in on frankfurt but use it as our breakout plus we use the last solo hour of Asian.

On the previous one #64 we use the last solo Asian hour and only trade frankfurt.

 

Hi Guys.First of all regarding the London F*rex Open system,I know we dont have it but take a look at this link where these guys are using it and posting the results.Interesting as June and July have been losing months but over the year its still in profit.

hxxp://www.systemsfortraders.com/...change x to t....scroll down to the relevant info.Some other good stuff on there too.

 

Kraven thanks for all the updates on stuff but a couple of questions etc.Are you actually trading the BO now from 10pm to 10 am as per the original idea.

Also regarding the 6am to 8 am BO..are you trading this too or was this just an old method that you've shared with us.The reason I ask is I've just gone back over a few weeks and the results for these hours look pretty good.Again applying a bit of common sense around major S and Rs etc,I think, needs to be considered.I quite like these times.

 

The 4am to 6 am system mentioned earlier is something called Sure F*rex System and can be found on the site somewhere.Not really hours I would want to trade !!!!!

[Freddie]

Hi Guys.First of all regarding the London F*rex Open system,I know we dont have it but take a look at this link where these guys are using it and posting the results.

Hi pauli, nice to see you back again.

That site you posted also used 'sniper' but dumped it when it stopped making money.

 

The 4am to 6 am system mentioned earlier is something called Sure F*rex System and can be found on the site somewhere.Not really hours I would want to trade !!!!!

I suspect that it has many names according to who's marvellous secret it is this time. I got it in my e-mail and the 'owner' is giving it away free ready to produce an EA to sell to trade it. Usual EA or system seller. This one is called 'supersonic'. There are two threads about it - being combined shortly

 

Some time back you mentioned your RR figures and both Kraven and I thought that they were the road to disaster.

Since then I have looked at some of my records and realised that if I had a SL that was placed "where the price was not going to go" I would have been in the trade for longer, maybe even getting my targets. I think a discussion along those lines may be beneficial if not decisive!!

 

Forget who I have quoted there but might be one of the top men!!

 

Freddie

[kraven]

ok there seems to be some confusion...

 

the 1hr 6am BO: take high and low of 1hr 6am candle close. switch to 5min TF and trade on breakout from 7 until 7:55 look for 20pips. Reason: we trade purely the frankfurt hr and this will avoid a possible london reversal, like today.

 

2hr 6 & 7 BO: we take the 6am candle (last of the solo Asian) and the 7am candle (frankfurt). we then start trading the BO after 8am: Reason: we don't trade the frankfurt hr and this will avoid a possible london reversal, like today.

 

10 till 10 BO: I don't always go from 10 till 10, sometimes i just go from 6 till 10. Reason: i find this safer when there's lots of bitty news around from the Euro and UK (normaly from 7-9:30), it's pretty good when the box size is around 40pips but this morning it's closer to 100 so i haven't bothered.

 

Pauli above all else i trade the news. Reason: It makes sense, good UK news 95 times out of 100 will cause £ to go up, simple. nothing to do with trendlines, EMA's, RSI etc. As long as there's room to rise; i.e. the av. daily range is 150pips so if where at 80pips for that day then i'm in, but if were at 170 then i'll wait.

if there's little news or lots of minor news like this morning then i'll try a 10am BO if we haven't already moved too much (unfortunately we have today). the 2hr 6 & 7 BO is good, sometimes v. good (like today, if you rode it and didn't set TP) but can end in early false breakouts (tends to be between 8 and 8:30) plus if news comes out at 9:30 which goes against the price direction it could reverse. Don't know if you've seen Phil Newtons stuff

http://www.trade2win.com/knowledge/articles/general_articles/15-min-break-out-strategy/?r

he uses Asain range BO but waits for a pullback then enters in order to filter false breaks. I can honestly say after years of searching and studying you can't filter false breaks you either get in or you don't.

[kraven]

one other thing.. I have a 30 and 10 SMA on my chart, this is so I can flip to the daily chart to see the overall trend. if the price is more or less above the 10 and the 10 is above the 30 then the medium trend is up. I'm not a trend trader i'm a News trader however i feel more confident if the news agrees with the trend. so at the moment i'm more confident getting into news which is good for the pound and bad for the dollar. ; )

[Freddie]

Thanks for all that Kraven. With your permission, I will prepare some charts of your BOs and put them up like post #64 but transfer them to page one like many of the threads do so that people know where to go for the info.

 

It is a shame but just like the " there is no Holy Grail", this is also a truth: "I can honestly say after years of searching and studying you can't filter false breaks you either get in or you don't.

[kraven]

No probs on the charts Freddie, you do them much better than me plus i don't have the patients.

 

I see you and Paulie on the 'become a millionaire' thread. It appears to be another breakout and, with it starting at 8am, will be subject to news and pullbacks. however, i've never used the GJ so could be of interest.

[pauli79]

No probs on the charts Freddie, you do them much better than me plus i don't have the patients.

 

I see you and Paulie on the 'become a millionaire' thread. It appears to be another breakout and, with it starting at 8am, will be subject to news and pullbacks. however, i've never used the GJ so could be of interest.

 

I think Im becoming obsessed with BO systems...lol.Yeh Im on there out of curiosity and it is a novel approach to entering the market by using channels rather than high/lows.GJ is pretty volatile and has large spreads up to 8 pips which puts me off a bit but lets see how it goes.

Thanks for the explanation too on different 'methods'.Im settling now for 10 am on the adapted 1*mindaily with my eye also focused on other times and news items etc.Also with the false BOs remember 1*mindaily is trading ALL BOs anyway and in the long run the 'set and forget' system should show good profits.

[kraven]

Don't know if this will be of help to you. it's a big help to me.

 

search and install 'ant-GU breakout indi' it's easy to get. I'm with Alpari UK and change the settings to GMT shift: 1, Start: 06:00, End: 07:45. (setting it at 7:45 will allow us to get in on the 8:00 am candle UK open).

It's a simple winning strategy (over the last 5 entries it would have made 100pips+, simple, easy, no filters, no worries)

 

Infact i'm gonna start using it again. Thurs and Friday are the only days i'd be cautious on UK news.

[kraven]

I think Im becoming obsessed with BO systems...lol.Yeh Im on there out of curiosity and it is a novel approach to entering the market by using channels rather than high/lows.GJ is pretty volatile and has large spreads up to 8 pips which puts me off a bit but lets see how it goes.

Thanks for the explanation too on different 'methods'.Im settling now for 10 am on the adapted 1*mindaily with my eye also focused on other times and news items etc.Also with the false BOs remember 1*mindaily is trading ALL BOs anyway and in the long run the 'set and forget' system should show good profits.

 

Pauli i said earlier i wasn't going to enter today at 10 as the market had already moved a lot #87. but if you look and we had went in at 10am we'd still have gotten our 30-40pips no probs with no news releases to worry about.

 

As i've said many times News is the king of the markets, not indi's or SR, news gives the market direction, we are moving up now on the back of good euro news, even though it was a bunch of minor data. this sort of news is ideal for breakouts. When big news is due early on, like this Friday at 9:30, then forget about early BO systems and only trade after it.

Edited August 2, 2010 by kraven

[kraven]

one other thing which is really important is RR

 

if i use the 2hr BO i use the box size as my SL and my minimun TG...so if box is 33pips big, so is my SL and so is my TG, however if it's rocketing past this i'll let it run. i'll also move my SL to BE if i'm nearing my TG price. I'll also use smaller bets (i use a spreadbetting company, so i'll have £1 or £2 per pip depends if it goes with trend).

 

If i use a 10am BO, i may just use the low or high of the last 2 bars or 9am till 10am to place my SL (max. 30). My TG tends to be 30-40pips simply because a lot of the movement has already happened. I also tend to use smaller bet sizes (£1 to £2 per pip)

 

Now on News trading (my bread and butter) RR is 1:1.5 or 20:30. so i can loose 3 time and win twice and break even. I tend to bet my max on this £4pp.

 

#ED: as i've posted ive just seen all the green candles on the chart, just shows you can't filter, you either get in or out. i chose to stay out at 10am because i felt market had moved a lot on nothing really. however it's now +70pips from then. however it's at the daily av. now so if i had been in i'd take it now.

US ISM Manufacturing data is out at 3:00, many think it could be good, so we could see a big reversal.

Edited August 2, 2010 by kraven

[kraven]

Well there we have it, it hits it's daily av., US markets open and we go down. this is why we should take note of time and todays PA move to daily av. This isn't a bad thing. This gives room for movement upwards if US data is bad, let's see what happens at 3.

 

#Ed: news came out and nothing great, nothing bad and were back near our daily high and daily av. of 148 so i'll give it a miss today unless we start heading down past .5850, anyway i like to be finished by 4:00

Edited August 2, 2010 by kraven

[Guest David1713006337]

A few of us have been discussing the '1min a day' system and a straight forward breakout from 1030 UK time (BST).

 

We are moving that discussion here.

 

If you would like to join in please do.

 

Freddie

 

The very popular Big Dog Trading System is the best breakout system that is used for London Session. Do an internet search for it and it's free to use.

[kraven]

Yes the big dog has been around a long time but i fail to see how it's the best. just another BO. 2hr box before US open. nothing more, nothing less. I've used similar many times in the past.

[Freddie]

Wow, lots of posts. I have been out for the afternoon and missed it all!!

 

Good day for breakouts on £$, couldn't go wrong whatever range you took.

 

Here is my 9.30 to 10 pic. Notice the violet lines for the asian session.

 

http://i914.photobucket.com/albums/ac341/freddieforII/0208.jpg

 

Freddie

[Freddie]

Excellent commentary on the day Kraven.

 

I saw the ..." US opens and down we go..." and had to look at my chart again. (The full, not the part shown above.)

50 odd pips down around 2pm. I seem to remember another thread where it is observed that the London close often signals a return movement. There was certainly a return to the trend during the next hour.

 

Freddie

[kraven]

Freddie check your messages