OIL & GOLD affect the U.S. Dollar ..??

[forex4love]

Previously based on the approval of Bretton

Woods in 1944, the international monetar system (SMI) at

fixed exchange rate system (fixed Exchange Rate). In this case USD Convertible

or can be exchanged and fully guaranteed with gold, the equivalent of USD35 provisions 1 troy once of gold.

 

Nixon Presidential Decree dated August 15, 1971 states that the value

USD exchange rate is no longer associated with Gold. This system is called the

floating exchange rate system (floating rate system) With the enactment

This system of movement of the country's currency is determined by the mechanism

supply and demand in the market.

 

Oil and gold prices world if associated with currency movements

is as follows.

 

U.S. is known as a country that needs oil consumption

large enough world, so the U.S. dollar is often called the Petro

Dollar. Rising world oil prices will indirectly affect

also on the rise harga2 production and consumption rates in the U.S. barang2.

This barang2 price hikes could trigger inflation which

makes further U.S. dollar exchange rate in the market tend to be depressed.

Therefore, market participants always kept the price movement mementau

world oil and U.S. oil inventories. Because small changes in both

trsebut things can affect significantly the indigo trade USD.

 

Gold prices tend to be inversely proportional to the price of oil, if the price

gold up the oil price will fall. Gold is one of

The most commodities are traded in the world, other than that the value

gold exchange relatively similar in different countries. Therefore many

vietnam pengungsi2 fleeing to the United States took gold in the

refuge, because the relative value of gold is fixed, try if the

that refugees bring to their country of currency in the U.S.,

they will not be ... because napa2in vietnam currency is not sold in the U.S..

[forex4love]

Re: OIL & GOLD affect the U.S. Dollar ..??

 

JPMorgan Chase & Co. said Brent crude oil may trade in the $70-$78 range in the near term as stocks build and product demand falls over uncertainties about the global economic recovery.

 

“Over the next six weeks the short-term seasonal issues seem set to cap the price,” Lawrence Eagles, a New York-based analyst for the U.S. bank, said in the report, dated yesterday. “There is a high risk that crude prices will spike to the upside at the end of the second quarter -- and perhaps even move into backwardation,” a condition when nearby futures are more costly than longer-dated ones.

 

Crude oil may rise next week as cold U.S. weather bolsters heating-oil consumption and reduces stockpiles of the fuel, a Bloomberg News survey showed. Crude oil for March delivery fell 0.3 percent to $75.04 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

 

The International Energy Agency yesterday raised its forecast for global oil demand this year by 170,000 barrels a day to 86.5 million barrels a day, or 1.8 percent, from 2009 levels, it said.

[forex4love]

Re: OIL & GOLD affect the U.S. Dollar ..??

 

Commitments of Traders:

 

Crude Oil: Net speculative long positions plunged more than -50% to 42.1K contract in the week ended February 9. Traders liquidated long positions while short positions surged as risk appetite was hurt amid sovereign crisis in the Eurozone. Decline in net longs may stabilized in the coming week but near-term outlook remains dismal amid sluggish fundamentals and uncertain policy changes in China, Europe and the US

 

Gold: Net speculative long positions slid for the 4th consecutive week to 181.5K contracts. USD rallied against major currencies amid concerns on sovereign default risk. Due to traditional inverse correlation between gold and USD, pressure on gold as the dollar strengthened is inevitable

[forex4love]

Re: OIL & GOLD affect the U.S. Dollar ..??

 

Rise in Risk Appetite Drives Commodities Higher

 

Crude oil remains firm after the strong rally yesterday. Currently trading at 77.2, the front-month contract for WTI crude faltered below 78 in European morning. With the lack of industry-specific data, oil prices are boosted by recovery in market sentiment and weakness in USD.

 

Stock markets also advance. In Asia, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index soared +1.8%, the biggest rise since November 30. Benchmark indices in Japan and Australia rose more than +2%. While China's stock is closed all week due to lunar new year holiday, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index added +1.8% after a 2-day holiday.

 

In Europe, equities also rise despite some poor economic data. In the UK, Claimant counts jumped +23.5K to 1.64M in January. The reading does not only caught the market in surprise as consensus forecasts a -10K decline in claims, but was also the highest level since April 1997. The Claimant count rate stayed flat at 5% in January while the ILO unemployment rate was 7.8% in the 3 months through December, also same as a month ago.

 

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Oil Prices Rallied as Sentiment Improved

 

Despite thin trading volume, crude oil jumped to a 2-week high at 77.42 Tuesday. The +4% surge is the strongest one-day rally since September 30 when the black gold gained +5.8%. Brent crude's rise was sharper, by +4.4%, and settled at 75.68. Others in the energy complex also soared with heating oil rise +4.1% and gasoline by +3.6%. Both API's estimates and US Energy Department's inventory report are delayed by 1 day due to US public holiday on February 15.

 

Strength in energy market was driven by decline in USD and revived confidence on economic recovery after encouraging Empire manufacturing index released yesterday.

 

The dollar index slid to 79.7 Tuesday as currencies including euro, pound, Australian dollar, etc rose on better market sentiment.

 

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Gold Daily Technical Outlook

 

Gold's rise from 1044.5 extends further to as high as 1124.6 so far today. While the rebound is strong, it's still limited below 1126.4. And we'd slightly prefer to case that gold as not bottomed yet. Below 1077.3 minor support will indicate that such rebound have completed and will bring fall resumption for another low below 1044.5. However, note that firm break of 1126.4 resistance will argue that correction from 1227.5 has already completed and will turn focus to 1163 resistance for confirmation.

 

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Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook

 

Crude oil's rebound from 69.50 extended further to as high as 77.56 and remains firm. Break of 78.04 resistance will argue that whole fall from 83.95 has finished and will bring even stronger rally to retest 83.95 high. Nevertheless, before that, there is no confirmation of reversal yet. Below 72.60 will suggest that rebound from 69.50 has completed and fall from 83.95 should then be resuming for 69.50 support and below.