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Trumpeter EA


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  • 7 months later...

The important thing to look at with trading systems that use martingale or grid trade sizing strategies is the balance chart in pips:

 

http://stashbox.org/845670/Trumpeter%20pipcurve.php.png

 

This one looks good because of the upwards rising pip balance chart from around trade 400, which may indicate an Ok underlying strategy, better than random. I'm not sure what happened before trade 400; it could be a different EA or strategy. A random entry and exit trading strategy would be a losing strategy overall because of the ask-bid spread, and this EA appears to be able to overcome the spread hurdle.

 

Most other martingale EAs have a downwards sloping pip balance chart (despite having an upwards sloping equity chart), which makes them very dangerous to use as there would be a much higher chance of consecutive or simultaneous losing trades that can crash the account. Using martingale trade sizing on a crap underlying strategy is not going to make it profitable over the longer term; maybe only in the short term until it eventually crashes and burns if you didn't withdraw funds soon enough, in which case you'd be simply gambling in a game in which the underlying odds are not in your favor like in a casino game.

 

Also keep in mind for martingale or grid EAs that you should use (for either backtesting or forward testing or trading) an account that offers high leverage, low account stop out level, and small minimum trade size (1000 or smaller of base currency per trade).

Edited by hyperdimension
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The user guide looks very informative. The account sizes it recommendeds are sensible:

 

MICRO account minimum account balance = $2,500 - $4,000, trading a BaseLotSize = 0.01;

MINI account minimum account balance = $25,000 - $40,000, trading a BaseLotSize = 0.1;

STANDARD account minimum account balance = $250,000 - $400,000, trading a BaseLotSize = 1.0.

 

For the trumpeteer.cz.mt4live.com account, the date range from around trade 400 up to now is almost exactly 1 year, and in that period it made just under 20K USD trading a BaseLotSize = 0.1. So if you assume an initial account size of 30K USD, the annual return on investment in this particular account is 20/30 = 67%.

Edited by hyperdimension
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do you think it safe to run trumpeter EA on 3,000 acount with starting lot 0.01 and multiply 1.5 with all 6 pairs?
Based on the user guide (and not my own analysis) and using leverage = 200, it would be safe.

 

However trading multiple currencies can either increase or decrease the risk, depending on whether any of the currencies are correlated to each other. It would be safer to trade only currencies that are have low correlation to each other.

 

I would go further and use a broker with higher leverage (400 or 500) and lower account stop out level.

 

People say higher leverage is dangerous but in the case of martingale or grid trading, higher leverage makes it safer because it effectively gives your account more elasticity when needed, so that your account won't crash so easily. Your account would be able to handle more consecutive or simultaneous losing trades. This is assuming that you don't increase the parameter values such as base trade size.

 

If using this EA in real-time, it would be important to continue monitoring the pip balance chart to check that it continues rising over time. If some time in the future the pip balance chart is no longer sloping upwards, it may indicate that the underlying strategy is no longer profitable, and it therefore may not be wise to continue using the EA.

Edited by hyperdimension
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Here is the profit chart from 2009-04-03 to 2010-04-01:

http://stashbox.org/845842/Trumpeter_Profit%20chart_2009-04-03%20to%202010-04-01.png

 

The big drawdown occurred less than a week ago on 2010-03-24 and lasted only for 1 day. I have highlighted below the losses that occurred on that day:

 

http://stashbox.org/845846/Trumpeter_Account%20history_2010-03-24.png

 

You can see that there were 6 consecutive losses with EURUSD until finally the 7th trade was profitable and recouped the losses plus gave a little profit. At the same time, the same thing happened with USDJPY. So in total there were 12 losing trades in a row. This many consecutive losing trades can crash an account if it happens early on, but since it happened only after almost a year of good steady gains, the account had sufficient funds to weather the storm. So this goes back to my statement about trading multiple pairs - try not to trade pairs that are highly correlated to each other. Possibly on this day (2010-03-24) there was a huge move with very little retracement in USD due to news (home sales).

Edited by hyperdimension
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  • 8 months later...

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