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Why Not to Trade MA Crossovers..


sabtron

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Re: Why Not to Trade MA Crossovers..

 

MA can always NOT be traded as a standalone.

 

You will need confirming indicators to suit it but 1 way you could migrate that risk is by moving to the daily chart.

 

I am not sure if you all have realize that your odds increase expotentially if bigger time frame says down and you look to short it in lower time frame.

 

It is all about how you trade only when favorable factors are in place for you.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Re: Why Not to Trade MA Crossovers..

 

I think that the people who are making money with MA's are probably using good money management.

There is no doubt that sometimes a MA system will catch a big trend and everybody is happy, but in my experience there is just too much chop in between, only MM will see you though that. To use MA's successfully you need to also be aware of support & resistance. Why bother with the MA stuff (and indicators in general), just look at support & resistance and use good MM. As I am still learning, I need to eliminate what is not working, even if everybody else was going in a different direction.

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Re: Why Not to Trade MA Crossovers..

 

Imo: We cannot blindly trade MA Cross strickly, but it must have a specific strategies follow the System of those MA Cross (examples: Bouncing, Candlestick, Pattern, Price, etc).

 

As a good pictures of MA Cross System is a Dr. Bob Ferarris & Dharma (CCI50) EMA 34 & EMA 14 BUT need a CCI 50 & 14 for the purpose seek the pattern like 5034,5014,5034z etc.

 

Another good examples is BGX WMA Cross as we know the Bunny Girls, he trade WMA 5, WMA 20, & WMA 100 with RSI(14) + Daily Open; but the Entry base Bouncing Pattern, Price Filters.

 

So the results allways comebacks again to the trader him/her self.

 

 

Sincerly

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  • 4 weeks later...

Re: Why Not to Trade MA Crossovers..

 

Hi everyone,

This may have already been mentioned. Moving averages that most of us know of, me included, just scratch the surface of what institutional traders are doing with them. For example, many trading firms will use either a neural net, a genetic algorithim, or a swarm algorithim program to find and adapt moving average values to find trade signals and often to forecast price by a few bars.

-live long and prosper,

B

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Re: Why Not to Trade MA Crossovers..

 

Thats why everybody used MA Cross just for a confirmation signal not as a trigger.

 

But Ken Marshall & Rob Moubray in they're ebook used EMA 5 & EMA 13 By Close just only in m5; for m15 & up they're used Stochastic 15,3,3 or 8,3,3 for 60 minutes & up with Bearish/Bullish Engulfing Candle + Morning & Evening Star.

Homo Homini Lupus Bellum Contra Poenna
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Re: Why Not to Trade MA Crossovers..

 

We can use ma crossing as the entry point as long as it pass throught S&R area. Fibo and next S&R as the target area. Divergence and news to see any turning point. Choose the suitable TF based on how many pip we want. Always put SL at below or after S&R area and dont forget MM and risk reward.

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  • 2 months later...

Re: Why Not to Trade MA Crossovers..

 

In my experience .........on choppy market you´ll be executed using MA systems.

 

How to define "choppy market" ?

 

You can try ADX to check the trend.If ADX is above 20& moving upwards,try using moving averages.If Adx is falling or below 20 try using Oscillators like stochastics,RsI etc

 

Anybody have tried it ?

Is it useful?

Thanks.

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Re: Why Not to Trade MA Crossovers..

 

Hi friends :)

 

Well I have'nt ever tried MA crossovers. The reason is I'm a big fan of Larry Williams and his research is second to none. The only reason he isn't in the market wizard books is coz he is somewhat controvertial because of his marketing of seminars and courses and Jack Schwager wanted to avoid interviewing traders who were controversial in any way. So he didnt interview him but Larry's reseach is considered among the best in the industry.

 

I read in his book ".... selecting stocks for quick gains" I don't remmeber the exact book name its one of his earliest that he had researched every possible MA crossover system and found them all to be losers in the long run. Heconcluded its not possible to make any money solely from MA because what they make in trends they give up in ranges.

 

He may or may not be right but I decided not to spend time on MA systems after reading his conclusion.

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Re: Why Not to Trade MA Crossovers..

 

Well quite so far my experience with MA.......I can say MA is the best if you guys knows how to make use of it. I have traded several strategies in my trading life but now I back over to MA because of its certainty and simplicity.........although as some other pro saids its seems very terrible during ranging market but.......here a strategy come not only MA........MA cannot do it alone ...a very good settings of EMA with a very good trend detector tools will give the success that you guys are looking for. But ny advice for you guys is to choose from ema 2-50 for a timeframe of at least 1-4hrs. with a very good money management.

This will sound funny but guys bet me EMA is incomparable when apply well and used well.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Re: Why Not to Trade MA Crossovers..

 

I am new to this wonderful forum! This is a really interesting topic so I would like to give my opinion here.

 

I really never use MA crossovers as entry point to the market, because I found that by that time the MA cross and all conditions line up the move is over or about 70-80% of the "strong" trending move is over. I am not saying you should not use MA crosses, but if they work for your trading style that's fine. :)

 

I cannot live without a MA though, it has a very good use! It shows you the trend. It shows you the strength of the trend, the possibility of retracement, and the continuation of an established trend. Maybe you think that's too much for a simple moving average. So open your platform for example on EUR/USD daily chart and plot a 30-period Smoothed Moving Average. If prices are above it there's an uptrend and vice versa, but you will notice often that (regardless of timeframe/market) the prices retraces to the moving average then starts to pick up again in the direction of the trend. 30 SMMA is not holy grail, everyone prefers his own MA, and I LOVE 30 SMMA because its ability of containing retracements and showing me the longer term trend of prices.

 

ADX. ADX is a superb tool, I am not sure I feel it's underrated in traders' indicators. It depends on how you would like to use it, are you going to use it for the DI+ and DI- crossing? It may not work that good. But here is how I read ADX;

 

If ADX is below 20, it is a ranging market. A trend will develop soon. Either in the direction of the prior trend, or a reversal.

 

If ADX is picking up above 20 towards 40 then a trend is developed. Above 40 means a strong trend. If ADX reaches 50+ or 60+ It tells me the trend is exhausted and it is time to exit my trade and wait for a sizable retracement (In some cases a big reversal in opposite direction happen). So the ADX shows you when there is no trend at all, shows you a developing trend, a strong trend, and a potential reversal zone (Overheating).

 

It does not mean it will retrace a certain amount when its extended. In very strong bull or bear runs, it is only a small retrace. So do not try to pick tops and bottoms just because adx is heating, you may spot short term reversals though confirmed with other things like MA, Divergences, candlesticks, every trader has his own preferences.

 

Chart is worth so many words, and I will include a chart that shows how I am using MA with adx on EURUSD/daily example. It won't be as perfect as this all the time, it's only a guidance of what happens "often".

 

http://img18.imageshack.us/img18/5940/adxma.gif

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  • 2 weeks later...

Re: Why Not to Trade MA Crossovers..

 

On your chart above EURUSD, MA crossovers are very useful, for instance the large recent drop can be traced to a MA cross between 100 and 50. They are supposedly a large number of black box systems using this as a strategy since specifically with the EURUSD the moves are very smooth (the retracements aren't as sharp as say GBPUSD) so theyre somewhat easier to trade. I've not used ADX before but ill look into it. Nice colours on your chart!

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Re: Why Not to Trade MA Crossovers..

 

Well quite so far my experience with MA.......I can say MA is the best if you guys knows how to make use of it. I have traded several strategies in my trading life but now I back over to MA because of its certainty and simplicity.........although as some other pro saids its seems very terrible during ranging market but.......here a strategy come not only MA........MA cannot do it alone ...a very good settings of EMA with a very good trend detector tools will give the success that you guys are looking for. But ny advice for you guys is to choose from ema 2-50 for a timeframe of at least 1-4hrs. with a very good money management.

This will sound funny but guys bet me EMA is incomparable when apply well and used well.

 

 

What EMA crossover and filter do you use to avoid ranging market ? Do you stick with 1 hr time frame?

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