vwrestler Posted July 21, 2009 Author Report Share Posted July 21, 2009 Re: I will be out if there is no EAs I want add one porint. It is widely believed that we should going along with the trend in manual trading. but when developing Eas, what I found is that it is difficult to developed an ea that goes along with the trend, but it is eays to develop an ea that goes against the trend. That is my own experience. I don't know whther others have the same feeling. As human being, we think by induction. If things happen in a particular way, our brain will think it will happen the next time. But eas do not think in that way. for example I use the William % indicator (setting=160) on M1 chart. If it it high (0), then that is a signal for sell, if it is low (-99), it is a signal for buy. In many occasions, I trade against my ea, and finally I was proved wrong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryaz Posted July 21, 2009 Report Share Posted July 21, 2009 Re: I will be out if there is no EAs There is no trend in lower TFs, you can identify trend only in higher TFs above M30 and again trend is something that can change at any time. Many people talk about trend but only few know what it is, and there is much more than trend in trading, like overbought/oversold levels, support/resistance etc. And remember that indicators are as the word says tools that indicate something, not signals. Furthermore the systems that have large winning percents (not necessarily the most profitable) buy when the market dips and sell when the market rallies because there's one thing certain in all markets they always go up and down, alas we don't know how much. regards Quote Ad augusta per angusta Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sgr Posted July 21, 2009 Report Share Posted July 21, 2009 Re: I will be out if there is no EAs Nobody will sell a golden egg, good ea won't be sold. That's the law. But we can still find our own, someday. Don't give up! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwrestler Posted July 21, 2009 Author Report Share Posted July 21, 2009 Re: I will be out if there is no EAs Agree with rayz. In the beginning I want to develop a scalper. There is why I work on M1. That is greed. And then I discover that on M1 MA610 is a good divider. About MA610 I should only buy, below MA610 I should only sell. My EA is based on these ideas. MA610 shows the direction. WIlliam % 155 shows the turning point. I build version 1 according to these. Now it is version 43, I added some filters, made it harder to open trade, and in the end the ea only has 1 trade every 2 days. Most of the time, it is just waiting. I think that is the main difference between me and the ea. I don't wait. When doing manual trade, I want to be in the game. It is like play computer games. I have two computers at home, one for me one for my son and my wife. Most of the time, my son is playing online games. He called my game the 'dump line game'. The screnn is so dumb, there are only some slow moving lines. And he does not understand why his father is dumber than those lines. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soundfx Posted July 21, 2009 Report Share Posted July 21, 2009 Re: I will be out if there is no EAs Hi vwrestler, Where did MA610 come from ? It's the average just over 10 hours worth of 1M bars, the average of 12 hours or 24 hours would seem to be more intuitive to me. MA610 seems a pretty good indicator, though there are a lot of cases where price seems to coil around the MA which would cause a lot of false signals, this is why you added W% too I guess. How profitable is your EA ? Does it work on all pairs ? I'm betting that when your son is older and needs some cash, he'll take a sudden interest in that "dumb line game" lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwrestler Posted July 22, 2009 Author Report Share Posted July 22, 2009 Re: I will be out if there are no EAs Not as good as some Eas, but it is my baby. Here beblow is backtest from 1-1-2009 up to now. Vwrestler-V43.gif Bars in test 198489 Ticks modelled 4495987 Modelling quality 25.00% Mismatched charts errors 0 Initial deposit 10000.00 Total net profit 1317.21 Gross profit 2263.21 Gross loss -946.00 Profit factor 2.39 Expected payoff 15.32 Absolute drawdown 57.60 Maximal drawdown 311.20 (2.82%) Relative drawdown 2.82% (311.20) Total trades 86 Short positions (won %) 38 (86.84%) Long positions (won %) 48 (85.42%) Profit trades (% of total) 74 (86.05%) Loss trades (% of total) 12 (13.95%) Largest profit trade 52.80 loss trade -121.00 Average profit trade 30.58 loss trade -78.83 Maximum consecutive wins (profit in money) 16 (514.77) consecutive losses (loss in money) 2 (-126.50) Maximal consecutive profit (count of wins) 636.90 (15) consecutive loss (count of losses) -126.50 (2) Average consecutive wins 8 consecutive losses 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
noplan88 Posted July 22, 2009 Report Share Posted July 22, 2009 Re: I will be out if there is no EAs Well i am still prefer manual trading, is still best. Market condition always change, those ea claims to have superb backtest results are just scam. At first everyone also incurred a loss, but remember MONEY MANAGEMENT is important, don't just think if you have $500 in your account you can trade 0.1 or 1 mini lot. Unless you are experienced trader that's another story, trading is actually very easy. Because you have losses, you will keep searching for holy grail ea, stress everyday but still can't find perfect ea, while you are still in trauma for trading live, i guess you need to clear off your fear. Takes 1-2 week practise and practise on demo, remember don't be greed over the amount you get in demo and jump into live after 1 - 2 days. Demo with the amount of your intended startup account. I suggest start with $250. Well i don't say you can only start with $250, you can start with any amount just as you wish. You can start with only $250 and to start with choose the easier currency EURUSD, because most broker can offer lower spread for this currency, and don't be greedy, play 0.01 to start ur time.with.Understand support and resistance is the best. DON'T ever listen to your broker analysis, chief strategist, free forex analysis, forex instructor and also they have been in trading 20-30 years. Thank goodness, i am myself won't be so free like them to do such thing, everybody busy trading. Just don't listen to what analysis, they have live proof etc etc. Those just wasting your time. You will succeed if you overcome all this fear, just relax and take your profit, don't be thickheaded to believe that the market will go according to your gut feeling, take profit when possible that is consistency. If you compound that small little profit then it will be big amount. You are trading in US DOLLARS, which is a lot in your currency. REMEMBER: keep practising, DON'T BE GREEDY AND CONSISTENCY. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
⭐ cowboy Posted July 22, 2009 Report Share Posted July 22, 2009 Re: I will be out if there is no EAs Well i am still prefer manual trading, is still best. Market condition always change, those ea claims to have superb backtest results are just scam. At first everyone also incurred a loss, but remember MONEY MANAGEMENT is important, don't just think if you have $500 in your account you can trade 0.1 or 1 mini lot. Unless you are experienced trader that's another story, trading is actually very easy. Because you have losses, you will keep searching for holy grail ea, stress everyday but still can't find perfect ea, while you are still in trauma for trading live, i guess you need to clear off your fear. Takes 1-2 week practise and practise on demo, remember don't be greed over the amount you get in demo and jump into live after 1 - 2 days. Demo with the amount of your intended startup account. I suggest start with $250. Well i don't say you can only start with $250, you can start with any amount just as you wish. You can start with only $250 and to start with choose the easier currency EURUSD, because most broker can offer lower spread for this currency, and don't be greedy, play 0.01 to start ur time.with.Understand support and resistance is the best. DON'T ever listen to your broker analysis, chief strategist, free forex analysis, forex instructor and also they have been in trading 20-30 years. Thank goodness, i am myself won't be so free like them to do such thing, everybody busy trading. Just don't listen to what analysis, they have live proof etc etc. Those just wasting your time. You will succeed if you overcome all this fear, just relax and take your profit, don't be thickheaded to believe that the market will go according to your gut feeling, take profit when possible that is consistency. If you compound that small little profit then it will be big amount. You are trading in US DOLLARS, which is a lot in your currency. REMEMBER: keep practising, DON'T BE GREEDY AND CONSISTENCY. I agree with you, too :shand: I been testing EAs but EAs cannot handle sudden market shifting. The most EAs scalping but it has lots of withdraw and if has SL, not enough or lost are too big. That's why manual trading is the most important. :)>- Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominoFX Posted July 22, 2009 Report Share Posted July 22, 2009 Re: I will be out if there is no EAs FAPTurbo has won me money for about 6 months, then lost all of its winnings plus some more from my starting capital. EuroBlaster v2 hit its large SL 3 times and lost almost all of my starting capital. YourLucky and Thunder4WD also started losing after the initial wins. These were the best EAs I found and all were legal purchased versions. I am now turning toward the manual trading but did not give up - still demoing Winalot and the free Quik DBS... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiNo Posted July 22, 2009 Report Share Posted July 22, 2009 Re: I will be out if there is no EAs Well i am still prefer manual trading, is still best. Market condition always change, those ea claims to have superb backtest results are just scam. At first everyone also incurred a loss, but remember MONEY MANAGEMENT is important, don't just think if you have $500 in your account you can trade 0.1 or 1 mini lot. Unless you are experienced trader that's another story, trading is actually very easy. Because you have losses, you will keep searching for holy grail ea, stress everyday but still can't find perfect ea, while you are still in trauma for trading live, i guess you need to clear off your fear. Takes 1-2 week practise and practise on demo, remember don't be greed over the amount you get in demo and jump into live after 1 - 2 days. Demo with the amount of your intended startup account. I suggest start with $250. Well i don't say you can only start with $250, you can start with any amount just as you wish. You can start with only $250 and to start with choose the easier currency EURUSD, because most broker can offer lower spread for this currency, and don't be greedy, play 0.01 to start ur time.with.Understand support and resistance is the best. DON'T ever listen to your broker analysis, chief strategist, free forex analysis, forex instructor and also they have been in trading 20-30 years. Thank goodness, i am myself won't be so free like them to do such thing, everybody busy trading. Just don't listen to what analysis, they have live proof etc etc. Those just wasting your time. You will succeed if you overcome all this fear, just relax and take your profit, don't be thickheaded to believe that the market will go according to your gut feeling, take profit when possible that is consistency. If you compound that small little profit then it will be big amount. You are trading in US DOLLARS, which is a lot in your currency. REMEMBER: keep practising, DON'T BE GREEDY AND CONSISTENCY. Well, I still think you can program market changing conditions. What actually can be changed in market? Direction, ranging/trending, volatility. I do not see a reason why it cannot be programmed. Unless you have to deal with such discretionary things as trendlines, S/R levels, Fibonacci levels, chart patterns, etc, EA is doable. For instance, I cannot find a good way to backtest discretionary approach, and backtesting is important. . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
noplan88 Posted July 23, 2009 Report Share Posted July 23, 2009 Re: I will be out if there is no EAs Precisely, most EA are just scam, i've been telling you guys about it, but still insist easy way to trade. EA has been set to just follow the rules, but what drives the market is not only that, that's why news comes into place, government decision etc etc. Mostly all the commercial ea does make money, after all losing it. Well if you areyo great in programming, why not you try it yourself and prove the world you are great? Look at F A P, yes it does profit but how often? Those currency trade with this ea having high spread nowadays, well 0.1 seems to be just $3 spread you are paying, look at it long term, lots money gone into this. And it keeps losing, now new marketing TRICKS, ea for swiss broker. Don't waste time for all of this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwrestler Posted July 23, 2009 Author Report Share Posted July 23, 2009 Re: I will be out if there is no EAs Thank you for your advice. But there is one thing I don't understand. I have test my ea with 3 different periods: [1] Jan 2009 up to now. [2] 2006-2009 [3] 1999-2009 There is no big drawdown and the result is favourable. I have tested many eas. Only a handful of them can pass the three tests. I know backtest is not reliable, so I forward test it for one year. The result is also favourable. I know it is not long enough. Maybe it will fail in the future. But who knows? This is the thing I don't understand. If no one knows the future, then how do we trade? By rules or by intuition, or by luck? I have read some books on manual trading, the fundamental approach and the technical analysis. But the fact is everyone in trading is reading the same books. Still, some win, some lose. What makes the difference? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryaz Posted July 23, 2009 Report Share Posted July 23, 2009 Re: I will be out if there is no EAs ... What makes the difference? I hate to repeat myself but the difference is to know beforehand what exactly do you risk and to know what to expect for that. Risk and return are two correlated quantities, the more you risk the more you win or lose, if you can quantify risk/return for your trading style then you can find the optimum. Of course manual trading is more profitable because the brain is a complex neural net and additionaly you know the fundamentals of the market, but it is incosistent and many times it bends the trading rules. So EAs are better in consistency terms, what EAs can't do is identify market behaviour changes, so for ex. if you run FAPT on EURGBP and you see the UK economy going down the drain you should better restrain FAPT from trading or at least disallow short positions. Furthermore many traders see scalping as the most profitable trading, which is quite wrong because in scalping you may have large winning rates but this way the broker earns more than you do, and the broker doesn't risk at all. So if you have an EA with 99% win rate but SL is 500 pips against a 5 pip TP there is no way to evaluate risk/return because losses are too rare to have any statistical meaning and two or three losses close to each other can wipe you out. It's like Lehman Bros that used VaR risk management, they knew that their high leverage position was 99% secure, what the didn't know is what could happen on this additional 1%. regards Quote Ad augusta per angusta Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
noplan88 Posted July 23, 2009 Report Share Posted July 23, 2009 Re: I will be out if there is no EAs The simple answer is, Backtest just a nice figure, these are all useless, nice to see, nice to dream but unpractical. Look at market condition, last year how eurusd down from 1.47, if you use ea follow all the rules it's going mad. Economy is what drives the currency appreciation and depreciation against one another. Don't look for easy way to trade with EA, myself earn more than ea with manual trading, you get to learn more stuff all the way, i guess there is still ea that can be train to adjust all these market condition, BUT it is still hard compared to own experience. From my trading, if you can earn good money in a day, why would you bother sell it for 99, 129 etc etc. These are junks, i wouldn't have time to sell it, yes maybe many people buy it and earn good money. Who are doing this? Company, same person just repeat the same thing, ea lifecycle considered very short 3-6 months, once it's out of sight, a new marketing hype from this people create another ea. Yes there is a good ea, they will not sell it. Look at fap, small little profit and big losses, how much people paying for new swiss edition now, 599 and 60% goes to people who promote it, it's just the same ea they promote. All of this will repeat for those who want easy way to trade. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simoniex Posted October 15, 2009 Report Share Posted October 15, 2009 Re: I will be out if there is no EAs any good EA can make money, the only problem is with broker, they did disconnection, they did offquote, they raise spread.. they did whatever they can to make trader lose, because most of the Mt4 broker doesn't buy/sell in forex market. they just manipulated everything to make trader lose. the only way to make money in forex is to be broker , IB ...........example. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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