Multiple Trading System to increase probability

[William1713006271]

Hi,

 

As we all know, forex is a probability game. The bigger the probability, the bigger our chance in winning.

 

I think, by using several trading systems at once (not combining, but using them separately), we are increasing our probability. Of course the problems would be:

- choosing trading platform with similar characteristic (e.g. trend follower or contra trend)

- designing the screen to fit those

- and not acting too late for those trading systems to confirm one and another.

 

What do you think about this idea?

 

I've been testing this idea, and have this screen so far.

http://i687.photobucket.com/albums/vv235/SolomonZhang/multiple_TS.gif

 

Regards,

[fx_cyborg]

Re: Multiple Trading System to increase probability

 

Great Idea William;

 

You're absolutley right about the Probability. I'm agree with you buddy

 

But IMHO: Probability is one of the Trading Aspect.

 

In my expirienced trading is more a Statistic.

 

If we mix 2 trading system in one, i thing the statistic of the winning percentage etc will be change.

 

Please forgive me if i'm wrong

 

:peace:

 

* But I thing we have still a change to combine 2 or more system but we mix it into be one trading system, but i thing its so hard.

[William1713006271]

Re: Multiple Trading System to increase probability

 

But IMHO: Probability is one of the Trading Aspect.

 

In my expirienced trading is more a Statistic.

I'm quite confused there my friend :D

 

Isn't probability is a part of statistic? :mrgreen: Afaik, if you open a statistic book, you will find a chapter about probability. So, imho, probability is a small part of statistic. :D

 

Well, having that said, you and I have completely the same idea, that trading is a statistic. :)

 

If we mix 2 trading system in one, i thing the statistic of the winning percentage etc will be change.

That is also my 1st concern.

 

The systems in the screenshot are rarely agree one and another, thus, lowering the entry percentage, which of course will lower the winning percentage. However, so far, it's the best combo that i've found working without negating one another.

 

* But I thing we have still a change to combine 2 or more system but we mix it into be one trading system, but i thing its so hard.

Well, I believe that many people have been trying to mix and combine trading systems.

 

What i want to discuss here is the whether the probability of mixing or running simultaneously is bigger.

 

Regards,

[pultimo]

Re: Multiple Trading System to increase probability

 

I think, by using several trading systems at once (not combining, but using them separately), we are increasing our probability.

Forex is a symmetrical game: you can't increase the probability to win without increasing the probability to lose...

:-)

[K12]

Re: Multiple Trading System to increase probability

 

The idea in general is interesting and no harm just experimenting on demo first. :arrow:

 

To follow your system you will need confidence and to have confidence you will need to understand it well and when you understand it well you will be able to also manage your trades well which is what trading is all about. If you have more than one system the same rule will apply regardless. If you know your systems inside out then you reasonably will be able to device your own system at the end of the day thus, you will come up with your own unique system for each market condition which also suits your personality, risk tolerance and your individual circumstances such as your amount of time you can dedicate and your starting capital , family circumstances, your objectives and etc.

 

If you combine together similar systems for a particular market condition but was made by other system developers which you may not understand them well or they do not suit your individual circumstances then, it will not necessarily increase your chance because you may get later confused, stressed out and if you this happens then you will not be able to manage your trades properly in particular when the trades go against you; you may encounter serious difficulties with your exit and in general with your discipline. :wew:

 

I think one system for each market condition must do the job if not go back and revise it. Remember that you do not need to trade all market conditions to be a successful trader and, you might be better off sticking to just one! I think it is better to specialize other than be a jack of all trades. One thing more is that, you must realize and accept that your system will stop working at one point or another regardless of how good you may think it is. The trick here is that when you see it stopped working you also must stop trading the system for that period! Some may of course disagree which is ok. This is usually the nature of any system.

 

Have you ever heard of a perfect system which has performed in real time and at all times? If there was one do you think someone would sell it to us? If so how much they would have sold it for? If so then could we afford the price tag? System developers may of course not agree with this which is understandable! :D

 

Just my opinions. :peace:

[K12]

Re: Multiple Trading System to increase probability

 

I think, by using several trading systems at once (not combining, but using them separately), we are increasing our probability.

Forex is a symmetrical game: you can't increase the probability to win without increasing the probability to lose...

:-)

 

I disagree. Forex or trading in general is a probability game but not a symmetrical game! This is very important. Lets remember the principle rule of trading which is: Try to maximum your profit while minimizing your risk. This by all means is neither an easy thing to fully grasp or realize nor an easy thing to do which is why most do the opposit by breaking the rule and, lose!

 

If you maximum your profit while you maximum your risk then effectively you are risking more than you can afford to lose and sonner or later you will be out of the game unfortunately! We all do or have done this and it is why we have been loosing so far! :twisted:

[doddy]

Re: Multiple Trading System to increase probability

 

Juz chime in.I saw the chart but where are the rules.What is this system set-up for entries.exit.Is the risk clearly defined that is your stop.

When this are defined then the R/R can be obtained with win/loss ratio.With that we can realised whether the statistics is there for the game to be played.

 

Also is this a mechanical or discretionary system as the result will vary if it is switched.

 

Rdgs

[William1713006271]

Re: Multiple Trading System to increase probability

 

I think one system for each market condition must do the job if not go back and revise it. Remember that you do not need to trade all market conditions to be a successful trader and, you might be better off sticking to just one! I think it is better to specialize other than be a jack of all trades.

Yes, I agree.

 

I try this on demo for EU only. I understand those systems well (not inside out, but well enough I guess) and they suit my personality.

 

Does this mean I've developed my own trading system?

 

Anybody wants to know? How about I sell it for $9,999? :mrgreen:

 

I saw the chart but where are the rules.What is this system set-up for entries.exit.Is the risk clearly defined that is your stop.

The D1 uses Rainbow

The H4 uses Rainbow + Murrey lines

The M30 uses Nina

The M15 uses SEFC universal

 

All have been shared with the Entry, Exit, SL, and TP. Just search for it, if you want to know more. Well, i've made some modifications to fit my personality.

 

When this are defined then the R/R can be obtained with win/loss ratio.With that we can realised whether the statistics is there for the game to be played.

That is exactly my point to discuss. As you can see, 4 TS have 4 RR ratios. They are quite good separately. What I want to know is if anybody has ever make any multiple TS run parallel, instead of combining them which seems to be impossible. Because if we combine them, it would be 1 trading system, thus it's not a holy grail.

 

e.g. Aragorn, Legolas, and Gandalf are great warrior separately. But by making them parallel, we have Lord of The Rings.

 

Regards,

[doddy]

Re: Multiple Trading System to increase probability

 

Hi William;

 

I do not know your indicators well but I see that you want a combination of playing the trend,countertrend and ranging.This is a challenge to the human mental and not the statistic as per se.First all of us have a preferred trading tendency long or short.Second the trade type.The bias is the block and not the statistic.

 

In all fairness,that is why we should stick to our preferred ball-game in a multiple disciplined enviroment in order to overcome the odds.That why they call it a boring game.You win but it's no longer fun.If you stepped out its fun but painful.

 

A trend bias type cannot play at inner execution if it is range type and as a result score poorly/marginal even though the stats is a good favourable game.Our modalities is our strength as well as our weakness.

 

Should we or otherwise have the need to venture outside our comfort zone.Then that game should be executed until the bias is contained or negated.In other words we acquired a new skill-set and it's wholely our mental and not a blockage.

 

The current system are tilted towards indicator and its procedures to categorise into long/short/trend.... is not wholesome to the average traders,whereas a system like price action/PF/Dinapoli/pattern/Mtpredictor works favorable despite our bias.Van Tharp wrote an artictle on Mtpredictor.Attached.

 

Food for thot's,95% of trader failed and 95% of trader used indicators.Attached Ed Seykota Risk article.

[awsl]

Re: Multiple Trading System to increase probability

 

Hi,

 

As we all know, forex is a probability game. The bigger the probability, the bigger our chance in winning.

 

I think, by using several trading systems at once (not combining, but using them separately), we are increasing our probability. Of course the problems would be:

- choosing trading platform with similar characteristic (e.g. trend follower or contra trend)

- designing the screen to fit those

- and not acting too late for those trading systems to confirm one and another.

 

What do you think about this idea?

 

I've been testing this idea, and have this screen so far.

http://i687.photobucket.com/albums/vv235/SolomonZhang/multiple_TS.gif

 

Regards,

 

IMHO, it doesn't really matter how many different system of charts combine, the important points are the rules for trading it. How well define is it for Entry, Exit, SL, and TP?

e.g,

Trade entry(long/short):

Condition 1

Condition 2

Condition 3

Condition 4

Condition 5

 

And the most important point, how long has the above rules been forward tested to analyze the possible draw down and profit factor across different market situation?

[William1713006271]

Re: Multiple Trading System to increase probability

 

I do not know your indicators well but I see that you want a combination of playing the trend,countertrend and ranging.

Nope. All 4 of them are trend follower. All 4 will fail at ranging market and all 4 are very bad at counter trend.

 

I don't really understand all the other paragraphs of yours. :P My english is not that good, would you mind to rephrase them. What I understand from your point is that choose 1 and stick to them, is that right?

 

And the most important point, how long has the above rules been forward tested to analyze the possible draw down and profit factor across different market situation?

My respect to awsl. But maybe my question is not really clear. I'm not asking opinion about these systems. I care not about the success or failure of the systems on that screenshot. :D

 

I'm asking whether you've heard or not the idea of running multiple systems at once. I just point the chart for example. What I want to know is whether this action has been done or not, and what is the result? Is it possible or not? If possible what are the systems that been tested? What are the backtest and forward test result? What do you think about this idea? Is it just a waste of time? If so, why? Is it worth considering? If so, what should we do next?

 

Because as far as I can browse on the net, people are trying to combine systems, not running them parallel.

 

So, judging from the replies, I think this idea is new huh?

 

Regards,

[fx_cyborg]

Re: Multiple Trading System to increase probability

 

I'm asking whether you've heard or not the idea of running multiple systems at once.

 

Trading System is like about a medicine, its about grey area.

 

there is no answer is everything is white or everything is black. Trading System is about Grey Colour.

 

Some times you must use only 1 Trading System, Sometimes you must use 2 or more (Combine) Trading System like your example above before.

 

like when you have gotted sicke example you get a cough, you must take a medicine maybe 2 or 3 bottle/strip of medicine (1 Antibiotik, another for your cough, etc).

 

But When you only gotted fever or headche, you just only need 1 Aspirin.

 

So the important things is we must know what the market situation for what we want to trade. So aftre we recognize our Market, now we can choose what types of our Trading System want we used.

 

Same like Doctor analysis about Diseases, so we did same like Doctor, BUT dont use Bazoka to kill a mosquito :mrgreen: .

 

Regards

[gsosay]

Re: Multiple Trading System to increase probability

 

http://indo-investasi.com/viewtopic.php?p=8772#p8772

 

See 3rd Indicator, may help

[doddy]

Re: Multiple Trading System to increase probability

 

Sori for the rambling as I must have mutter too much before dozing off.I sori also English you don't understand,I will try to make it simpler.

 

First I was under the impression that you have different system to handle trend,contra trend and therefore ranging. So I tried to explain to stick to one that has work for you profitably.Then tried and tested another until its you then trade it.

 

Second is as long as you forward and backward test it with your statistic you will be ok.The crutch of the issue is your mental ex.As you are switching from one TF to another you are juggling dynamite.All of us has a bias toward a system that fit our risk and stomach the drawdown.

 

Third I summing up that indicators are lagging and you enter after the move and give up part of the move when exit.The shorter the TF the worst it gets.This will eat you up and cause your mental to question the system stats.That is why so many fails.

 

You best shot with indictaors is trade in the higher timeframe with entries in lower timeframe.I have seem this combination and it works but previous paragraph still will get you.

 

I include Mtpredictor to show that a system example like Elliot that has price action that trade and time with different TF would be a better choice for you in the long run.(Please kindly note I do not trade this system).I am using mainly Dinapoli and James16.

 

Lastly I include ED risk as way too many do not understand it fully.I hope this help and I do know this site is heavily geared to indicators and will ruffle many a feather caps.

 

Please kindly ignore this posting of mine if it stick you up.Thanks.I will butt off this thread for now.

[William1713006271]

Re: Multiple Trading System to increase probability

 

Hi Doddy,

 

Yes, my concern with multiple TS is also the lagging of indicators.

 

Thanks for the advices. I'll check the attachment.

 

I think this site is more geared to EA :mrgreen: People here seems to ignore manual TS, and want the plug-play-relax-and-get-rich EA. :D

 

So, don't butt off, let's discuss together. I myself also trade with MAs and candlestick only. So, almost "naked". :p

 

Regards,

[fx_cyborg]

Re: Multiple Trading System to increase probability

 

Yes, me too :peace:

 

I trade Manual not by EA :arrow:

[sonny]

Re: Multiple Trading System to increase probability

 

I thought using different systems together

 

The problem is having a lot of winning systems :D

 

Rainbow + Candlesticks :arrow:

[4xlord]

Very interesting...

[scott17]

Nice stuff !

[Freddie]

Trading System is like about a medicine, its about grey area. there is no answer is everything is white or everything is black. Trading System is about Grey Colour.

 

I must agree, a good explanation Cyborg.

 

@William... Much of your arguement is rather above my head or it might be that I see things in a more simple light.

I should explain that I am an old man, seen plenty, done lots. Had a University Education; Worked as an advisor to management so not completly stupid.

 

I am not sure that I understand 'systems' only 'strategies'.

 

Let me start from a premise. The last price is all we have to work with It went up, down, didn't move.

 

If we do some calculations we can make a line with it.... OK all known stuff we don't need the lecture Fred!!!

 

If we take three bars and the middle one is higher, when the next one arrives we can make a decision.

 

A basic strategy is to bet on a sell if the next bar is lower - "3rd Candle" "5 Bar reversal" etc. There are many 'systems' that use that.

We can use the data to make a 'stochastic' - no idea how that is done but we get an oscillator that moves as price does. We can use this as a confirmation. Craig Harris uses it as do others.

Fozzy uses RSI with a SMA. Lindencourt uses only the Stoch.

 

Put all these on a chart and you have a powerful $455 system. BUT... all you need is the price.

 

We are confusing ourselves by trying to use these 'magic' add-ons.

 

On another thread we are discussing exactly how a line should be drawn when it is of no real import. A child's attempt would do the job.

 

One last thing: Guppies multi-line indicator looks impressive but look at the amount of missed pips as we wait for the lines to move.

 

Sorry William, I am sure that you are most accomplished but you need to see 'wood for the trees'. No offence intended!

 

THIS IS NOT A PLUG FOR PRICE ACTION BUT A PLEA FOR SIMPLICITY

 

Freddie

Edited August 3, 2010 by Freddie

[johnkhoogw]

Hi all,

 

100% agree with Freddie and fx_cyborg

 

Let me share my experiences, i personally tried to use 5-6 systems in the past, its just a waste of time since they just either enter almost the same time or slower and exit early or slower. Once the market range, all lose money. Thus, i even tried to test all indicators together and keep the useful indicators and still it doesn`t works well.

 

To be honest, understanding price action is more important than any systems that depend fully on indicators. Indicators are slaves of price and once the price give a go signal, the indicator give you a go signal but in alot of delay info that you eventually enter so late giving all your money to the people who understand price action as they exit once you enter.

KEEP IT SIMPLE STUPID - KISS method is the only way to success.

 

Hope you don`t get offended but i wish you stop wasting time on system and indicators but spend more time on learning price action - Candlestick pattern, S&R, Trendlines and maybe some moving averages.

 

Good Luck