FUNDAMENTAL: Henry Liu Prediction

[williamroxy28]

Hi;

 

PREDIKSI TGL 16-2EPT-2008

 

 

4:30am UK CPI y/y 4.6%(E) 4.4%(P) 0.2%(S) 50M

5:00am EU CPI y/y 3.8%(E) 3.8%(P) 0.2%(S) 50M

8:30am US CPI m/m Core 0.2%(E) 0.3%(P) 0.2%(S) 50M

2:15pm US FOMC Rate 2.00%(E) 2.00%(P) 0.25%(S) 70M

Not Tradable

 

UK BOE Inflation Letter (Tentative)

US TIC Net Long-Term Transactions (9:00am)

 

E = Expected

P = Previous

S = Surprise Factor

M = Expected Movement in Pips if surprise factor is reached

 

Today is going to be an interesting day. I am seeing lots of

central bank interventions in this market trying to smooth the

aftermath of Lehman. We seen lots of liquidities injected into the

market to avoid similar market crash of Bears, but eventually the

sentiment will win over and there would be some kind of unwinding

in the carry trades, hopefully it would be an orderly unwinding

stretched out in the next few days.

 

There is now an overwhelming consensus for the Fed to cut interest

rate by 1.75% before the end of 2008, but it is widely expected that

FOMC will leave rates unchanged with a rather dovish statement

hinting a possible cut or change in policy in the future. However,

there would still be a slim change for a rate cut, although it is

going to be very slim.

 

NEWS TRADING

 

Tuesday Sept. 16 2008

 

[4:30am NY Time]

 

UK CPI y/y BUY 4.8% SELL 4.4% GBP/USD

 

Our focus will be on the headline CPI number, not the Core CPI

number. If we get a better than expected number of 4.6%, we should

see GBP/USD moving up; if we get a lower than 4.4%, then we'll see

GBP/USD moving down.

 

Here is the definition from ForexFactory:

 

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the rate of inflation

(i.e., the rate of price changes) experienced by consumers when

purchasing goods and services. A rising trend has a positive effect

on the nation's currency. The primary objective of the central bank

is to achieve price stability; when inflation rises above an

annualized rate of approximately 2%, they will respond by raising

interest rates to bring prices down. Higher interest rates attract

foreign investment, thus increasing demand for the nation's

currency. CPI is one of the most closely watched indicators and

will usually have a high impact upon release.

 

[5:00am NY Time]

 

EU CPI y/y BUY 4.0% SELL 3.6% EUR/USD

 

Our focus will be on the headline CPI number, not the Core CPI

number. If we get a better than expected number of 3.8%, we should

see EUR/USD moving up; if we get a lower than 3.8%, then we'll see

EUR/USD moving down.

 

Here is the definition from ForexFactory:

 

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the rate of inflation

(i.e., the rate of price changes) experienced by consumers when

purchasing goods and services. A rising trend has a positive effect

on the nation's currency. The primary objective of the central bank

is to achieve price stability; when inflation rises above an

annualized rate of approximately 2%, they will respond by raising

interest rates to bring prices down. Higher interest rates attract

foreign investment, thus increasing demand for the nation's

currency. CPI is one of the most closely watched indicators and

will usually have a high impact upon release.

 

[8:30am NY Time]

 

USA Core CPI m/m SELL 0.4% BUY 0.0% EUR/USD

 

Our focus will be on the Core CPI number, not the cHeadline CPI

number. If we get a better than expected number of 0.2%, we should

see EUR/USD moving down; if we get a lower than 0.2%, then we'll see

EUR/USD moving up.

 

Here is the definition from ForexFactory:

 

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the rate of inflation

(i.e., the rate of price changes) experienced by consumers when

purchasing goods and services. A rising trend has a positive effect

on the nation's currency. The primary objective of the central bank

is to achieve price stability; when inflation rises above an

annualized rate of approximately 2%, they will respond by raising

interest rates to bring prices down. Higher interest rates attract

foreign investment, thus increasing demand for the nation's

currency. CPI is one of the most closely watched indicators and

will usually have a high impact upon release.

 

[2:15pm NY Time]

 

US FOMC Interest Rate BUY 1.75% EUR/USD

 

The Feds (FOMC) will release its Federal Funds Rate and its widely

expected to be a HOLD at current 2.00% level. FOMC is not expected

to cut rate this month, however the real mover won't be the rate

announcement, but the accompanied statements. If FOMC shifts its

focus on inflation, we can expect to see USD gaining across the

board. If the focus is on growth risks, then USD will be sold off

against other currencies.

 

(Special Message on Fundamental News Trading)

 

Currency Market is driven by fundamental news. News releases are

what determines the long term and short term trends of the market.

Although technical analysis has its part in Forex trading, it is

important to understand that market does not move just because a

technical breakout or a candlestick pattern. By understanding

fundamentals, a trader will have a powerful edge over the market in

the mid to long term.

 

I wish you all of the best, until tomorrow... :mrgreen: :peace:

 

Henry Liu

 

:?:

[williamroxy28]

Re: FUNDAMENTAL: Henry Liu Prediction

 

PREDIKSI KAMIS; TGL 18-9-2008

 

4:30am

UK Retail Sales -0.4%(E) 0.8%(P) 0.5%(S) 50M

 

Not Tradable

 

8:00am CHF Libor Rate

6:45pm NZD Current Account

 

E = Expected

P = Previous

S = Surprise Factor

M = Expected Movement in Pips if surprise factor is reached

 

***

 

Today's market has been extremely volatile to say the least, as we

saw whipsaw reactions in carry trades and most majors, what a wild

ride!

 

As usual, my assessment of the market is that the trend has changed,

as I suspected since Sunday. Now we will be looking at possible

EUR/USD recovering in the 1.45 to 1.50 area in the mid term.

 

As far as carry trades are concerned, i.e. GBP/JPY, EUR/JPY, etc...

I am looking at a possibility of unwinding, although it may not

happen today. This news with AIG might provide some temporary

support in the market, more write downs and negative news in the

financial sector will surface in the next few days or weeks,

therefore it is not time yet to load up on riskier trades yet.

 

One last thing, if you weren't able to take advantage of the GBP/JPY

upmove today for about 500 pips (one of my regular trades), then you

need to get a copy of my E-book, where I talk about this movement in

great details. There is no excuse for someone who bought my book

to miss this movement, at least being able to catch 100 pips off

from it.

 

***

 

NEWS TRADING

 

Thursday Sept. 18 2008

 

[4:30am NY Time]

 

UK Retail Sales SELL -0.9% BUY 0.1% GBP/USD

If we get better numbers for the Retail Sales, which is forecasted

at -0.4%, it would be good for the GBP/USD and provide temporary

support, we would BUY GBP/USD. If we get worse numbers, somewhere

in the -0.9% or worse, we will SELL GBP/USD.

 

Here is the Definition from ForexFactory:

 

Measures the value of sales at the retail level. A rising trend has

a positive effect on the nation's currency because Retail Sales

make up a large portion of consumer spending, which is a major

driver of the economy and has a sizable impact on GDP. Traders pay

close attention to Retail Sales because it is usually the first

significant indicator of the month that relates to consumer

behavior and is susceptible to surprises.

 

(Special Message on Fundamental News Trading)

 

Currency Market is driven by fundamental news. News releases are

what determines the long term and short term trends of the market.

Although technical analysis has its part in Forex trading, it is

important to understand that market does not move just because a

technical breakout or a candlestick pattern. By understanding

fundamentals, a trader will have a powerful edge over the market in

the mid to long term.

 

I wish you all of the best, until tomorrow...

 

 

Henry Liu

 

*Yg sudah dapat ebooknya Henry Liu mohon kesediaannya untuk mem-postingkannya di forum. Trims.

[williamroxy28]

Re: FUNDAMENTAL: Henry Liu Prediction

 

PREDIKSI TGL 19-9-2008

 

We don't have any tradable news tomorrow, as a matter of fact, there

is almost nothing scheduled for tomorrow 19th of Sept. 2008...

 

However, do not be fooled by the lack of news as lack of volatility.

There is a rumor floating around with a special temporary rule from

the SEC to ban all short selling of stocks. This will essentially

give the greenback a boost (bad for EUR and GBP) and at the same

time lift up all carry trades (such as JPY crosses..)

 

This news is scheduled to be released just before NY Equity Market

open, which is anytime from 8:00am to 9:30am NY Time. It will be

priced into the market today, in my opinion, therefore be very

careful with your direction.

 

This is just another attempt from the government to quiet down the

over-exaggerated market, and bring stability and order back into

the finance sector.

 

So, if you are new to this market, I would strongly suggest that you

sit this one out... don't get in front of the market today and

preserve your capital...

 

(Special Message on Fundamental News Trading)

 

Currency Market is driven by fundamental news. News releases are

what determines the long term and short term trends of the market.

Although technical analysis has its part in Forex trading, it is

important to understand that market does not move just because a

technical breakout or a candlestick pattern. By understanding

fundamentals, a trader will have a powerful edge over the market in

the mid to long term.

 

I wish you all of the best, until tomorrow...

 

Henry Liu

 

* Yg sudah dapat ebooknya Henry Liu, mohon kesediaannya untuk berbagi. Terima-Kasih.

[williamroxy28]

Re: FUNDAMENTAL: Henry Liu Prediction

 

PREDIKSI TGL 22-9-2008

 

8:30am CA Core Retail Sales 0.3%(E) 1.4%(P) 0.5%(S) 40M

 

E = Expected

P = Previous

S = Surprise Factor

M = Expected Movement in Pips if surprise factor is reached

***

 

As we start this week there are uncertainties in the market,

specially with this new bailout plan from the treasury to help all

troubled financial companies. I will be watching this week's

speeches from Bernanke and possibly make a determination on future

market sentiment.

 

It is important that we be patient during this special time, as we

have never seen this kind of market volatility in decades, if not

centuries... it is extremely important that we protect our capital

first.

 

NEWS TRADING

 

September 22, 2008

 

[8:30am NY TIME]

 

CA Core Retail Sales SELL 0.8% BUY -0.2% USD/CAD

 

If we get better numbers for the Retail Sales, which is forecasted

at 0.3, it would be bad for the USD/CAD (good for CAD) and provide

temporary resistance, we would SELL USD/CAD. If we get worse

numbers, somewhere in the -0.2% or worse, We'll look to BUY

USD/CAD.

 

Here is the Definition from ForexFactory:

 

Measures the value of sales at the retail level. A rising trend has

a positive effect on the nation's currency because Retail Sales

make up a large portion of consumer spending, which is a major

driver of the economy and has a sizable impact on GDP. Traders pay

close attention to Retail Sales because it is usually the first

significant indicator of the month that relates to consumer

behavior and is susceptible to surprises.

 

* yg sudah punya ebooknya tolong dibagi ya :)

[williamroxy28]

Re: FUNDAMENTAL: Henry Liu Prediction

 

PREDIKSI TGL 23-9-2008

 

7:00am CA Core CPI m/m 0.1%(E) 0.1%(P) 0.2%(S) 40M

...and some not tradable

 

10:00am US Fed. Bernanke Testifies

10:00am US Treasury Sec. Paulson Speaks

 

E = Expected

P = Previous

S = Surprise Factor

M = Expected Movement in Pips if surprise factor is reached

 

***

 

Today we will have two very crucial events, Sec. Paulson and Ben

Bernanke's testimony. Market condition will be extremely volatile

as this event will be watched closely by traders all over the world.

 

It is once again best to stay out of the market, because this kind

of uncertainty is not good for trading.

 

NEWS TRADING

 

September 23, 2008

 

[7:00am NY TIME]

 

CA Core CPI m/m SELL 0.3% BUY -0.1% USD/CAD

 

Our focus will be on the Core CPI number, not the Headline CPI

number. If we get a better than expected number of 0.1%, we should

see USD/CAD moving down; if we get a lower than -0.1%, then we'll

see USD/CAD moving up.

 

Here is the definition from ForexFactory:

 

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the rate of inflation

(i.e., the rate of price changes) experienced by consumers when

purchasing goods and services. A rising trend has a positive effect

on the nation's currency. The primary objective of the central bank

is to achieve price stability; when inflation rises above an

annualized rate of approximately 2%, they will respond by raising

interest rates to bring prices down. Higher interest rates attract

foreign investment, thus increasing demand for the nation's

currency. CPI is one of the most closely watched indicators and

will usually have a high impact upon release.

[williamroxy28]

Re: FUNDAMENTAL: Henry Liu Prediction

 

PREDIKSI 24-9-2008

 

10:00am US Exiting Home Sales 4.93M(E) 5.00M(P) 400K(S) 40M

 

...and some not tradable

 

4:00am EU German Ifo Business Climate

6:00am UK CBI Retail Sales

10:00am US Fed. Chairman Bernanke Speaks

2:30pm US Fed. Chairman Bernanke Speaks.

 

E = Expected

P = Previous

S = Surprise Factor

M = Expected Movement in Pips if surprise factor is reached

 

***

 

As we approach to the mid of the week, once again we are still very

uncertain about the market direction in the short-term. As Bernanke

and Paulson try to sell this massive bailout plan to the congress,

market volatility remains indecisively, kept today's trading in a

range.

 

What I am looking for today will be the German Ifo number and the

testimonies of Bernanke. Obvious Bernanke's speech will be watched

by major market players as it is going to set the tone for the rest

of the week.

 

I will analyze the news and my thoughts tomorrow. Once again today's

market condition is a completely new territory. No one has seen

this kind of market reaction for decades, therefore it is better is

to stay out if you are unsure of market direction.

 

***

 

Today we will have two very crucial events, Sec. Paulson and Ben

Bernanke's testimony. Market condition will be extremely volatile

as this event will be watched closely by traders all over the world.

 

It is once again best to stay out of the market, because this kind

of uncertainty is not good for trading.

 

NEWS TRADING

 

Wednesday September 24, 2008

 

[10:00am NY TIME]

 

US Exisiting Home Sales BUY 4.53M SELL 5.33M EUR/USD

 

Existing Home Sales is expected at 4.93M, if the number is lower,

it would be bad for the USD, and we would BUY EUR/USD or EUR/USD; if

the number is higher, then it would be good for USD, and we would

SELL GBP/USD or EUR/USD.

 

Here is the Definition from ForexFactory:

 

Measures the annualized number of existing residential buildings

that were sold during the previous month. A rising trend has a

positive effect on the nation's currency because large purchases

tend to be made by consumers that are optimistic and confident in

their financial position. The sale of a home also triggers

commissions for real estate agents, and often home owners will

purchase goods such as appliances and furniture shortly after

purchasing a home. Traders watch this report closely as it's the

month's first demand-side housing indicator to be released.

[williamroxy28]

Re: FUNDAMENTAL: Henry Liu Prediction

 

PREDIKSI TGL 25-9-2008

 

 

10:00am US New Home Sales 510K(E) 515K(P) 70K(S) 40M

6:45pm NZ GDP q/q -0.5%(E) -0.3%(P) 0.3%(S) 40M

...and some not tradable

 

8:30am US Core Durable Goods

8:30am US Unemployment Claims E = Expected

P = Previous

S = Surprise Factor

M = Expected Movement in Pips if surprise factor is reached ***

Today's speech from President Bush in an attempt to sell public on

the feasibility of his massive bailout plan seems to be working, as

we saw EUR/USD soaring immediately after the news... Further comments from different senators and news outlets right

after the speech suggested that this massive bailout plan will pass

early on next week... Therefore today's market we are going to see

EUR/USD soaring and possibly a further appetite for risk until next

week... .

*** NEWS TRADING

Thursday September 25, 2008

 

[10:00am NY TIME]

 

US New Home Sales BUY 440K SELL 580K EUR/USD

New Home Sales is expected at 530K, if the number is lower,

it would be bad for the USD, and we would BUY GBP/USD or EUR/USD; if

the number is higher, then it would be good for USD, and we would

SELL GBP/USD or EUR/USD.

 

ForexFactory Definition:

Measures the annualized number of new residential buildings that

were sold during the previous month. A rising trend has a positive

effect on the nation's currency because the housing market is a

leading gauge for the overall economy. A high level of housing

activity signals that the construction industry is healthy and that

consumers have the capital to make large investments. More

importantly, new housing activity creates an economic ripple effect

as home owners buy goods such as appliances and furniture for their

homes, and builders buy raw materials and hire more workers to meet

demand.

 

[6:45pm NY TIME]

 

NZ GDP q/q SELL -0.8% NZD/USD

 

GDP is a high impact news... The expected consensus number is -0.5%,

therefore if we get a 0.3% of deviation, we should see market move

40 pips within the hour.

 

Definition from ForexFactory:

 

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the total value of all goods

and services produced by the economy. A rising trend has a positive

effect on the nation's currency. GDP is the broadest measure of

activity and the primary gauge of the economy's health. To foreign

investors, a strong economy is viewed favorably because it spurs

investment opportunities in the domestic stock and bond markets.

More importantly, the central bank is more likely to raise interest

rates in the face of a strong and growing economy. The combination

of these effects can have a large impact on the demand for the

nation's currency.

[williamroxy28]

Re: FUNDAMENTAL: Henry Liu Prediction

 

26-9-2008

 

We don't have any tradable news tomorrow, however there are many

breaking news scheduled to be released tomorrow and many surprise

news releases taking place as I am writing this...

 

The latest news was JP Morgan acquiring Washington Mutual, which is

the largest savings and loans institution in America, marking this

another major demise in wallstreet, intesifying the sense risk

aversion once again in the marketplace.

 

As to add insult to injury, the almost-sure massive bailout plan

just 24 hour ago now hit a major roadblock, as the late night

session in a closed cabinet meeting with both presidential hopefuls

and president Bush turned out fruitless; and to further confuse the

market, House Republicans proposed a separate bill proposing to let

"Wall street bail out wall street"...

 

These new developments have added a sense of flight to safety and we

have seen CHF and JPY both firming up against all majors; as we get

into the early London session, I fully expect to see this sentiment

to continue.

 

Today will be a very tough day to trade, with the lingering

possibility of a last minute surprise, this Bailout Bill will

dominate the market undoubtly. Market conditions will be extremely

volatile with violent swings both ways along with no committment to

either directions. I would certainly suggest that we wait until

we find out the final verdict with this bill, then we can decide

market direction.

 

However, if you were to take any trade today, I would be taking them

in the direction of Risk Aversion.

 

 

*Minggu depan stop dulu, cape :peace:

[bielcomp]

Re: FUNDAMENTAL: Henry Liu Prediction

 

wah wah bro will roxy langganan apa ikutan yang trial nya nih ?

 

kalo ada ebooknya boleh share gak ...soalnya ada yang minta tuh di thread forex ebook :cd: