LONG TERM FOREX ANALYSIS

[Rayback]

EURUSD Analysis – Aug 24, 2008

 

EURUSD is forming a sideways consolidation in a range between 1.4629 and 1.4977. As long as price stays below 1.4977 level, we'd expect further decline to test the support of the up trend line from 1.1825 (Feb 27, 2006 low) to 1.3360 (Aug 16, 2007 low), now at 1.4425 level. However, a break of 1.4977 will indicate that the fall from 1.6038 has completed and lengthier correction would bring price back to 1.5160 - 1.5340 area.

 

For long term analysis, EURUSD broke below 1.5284 (May 8 low) support and formed a double top pattern on weekly chart. Deeper decline towards 1.4000 level to reach next cycle bottom on weekly chart is now in favor.

 

 

GBPUSD Analysis - Aug 24, 2008

 

GBPUSD remains in down trend and the fall from 2.0158 extends further to as low as 1.8505 level. Deeper decline towards 1.8000 is possible in next few days. Initial resistance is now located at 1.8794 followed by 1.8900, only break above 1.8794 level will signal lengthier consolidation to down trend.

 

For long term analysis, GBPUSD formed a cycle top at 2.0158 on weekly chart. Further fall towards 1.8000 to reach next cycle bottom is in favor.

 

 

USDJPY Analysis - Aug 24, 2008

 

USDJPY is forming a sideways consolidation in a range between 108.13 and 110.66. Rebound from 108.13 could possibly be resumption of up trend. Further rise to 112.00 level is now in favor. Initial support is at 108.13, a break of this level will indicate that a cycle top on daily chart has been formed at 110.66 level, and then pullback could be seen to retest 103.76 previous low support.

 

For long term analysis, USDJPY formed a long term cycle bottom at 95.77 (Mar 17 low) on monthly chart and is now in long term up trend. Further rise towards 120.00 is in favor.

 

 

USDCHF Analysis - Aug 24, 2008

 

USDCHF remains in up trend, and the rebound from 1.0842 could possibly be resumption of up trend. Further rise towards 1.1200 level is possible in next few days. Initial support is now at 1.0842 followed by 1.0740, only fall below 1.0842 level will signal lengthier consolidation to up trend.

 

For long term analysis, USDCHF broke above 1.0623 (May 8 high) long term resistance, suggesting that the long term down trend from 1.3288 (2005 high) has completed. The rise from 0.9634 (Mar 17 low) is now treated as resumption of long term up trend. Further rise towards 1.1600 is now in favor.

 

 

AUDUSD Analysis - Aug 24, 2008

 

AUDUSD traded in a range between 0.8591 and 0.8812. Deeper decline to test 0.8512 (Jan 22 low) support is still possible after breaking below 0.8591 level. If 0.8512 support gives way, next target would be at 0.8200. Initial resistance is now at 0.8812 and followed by 0.8890, only rise above 0.8812 will signal lengthier consolidation to down trend.

 

For long term analysis, AUDUSD broke below 0.9327 key support and formed a cycle top at 0.9849 on weekly chart. Deeper decline towards 0.8400 is expected.

 

 

USDCAD Analysis - Aug 24, 2008

 

USDCAD broke below 1.0543 key support, suggest that a cycle top has been formed at 1.0727 level on daily chart. Pullback to retest 0.9974 level is expected. Initial resistance is at 1.0727, only rise above this level could signal further rally towards 1.1000 level.

 

For long term analysis, USDCAD might be forming a cycle top at 1.0727 on weekly chart. Long term key support is at 0.9818, a break below this level will signal further decline towards 0.9056 (Nov 2007 low).

 

 

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