official Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

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EUR/USD Rallies While USD/JPY Takes A Major Hit

EUR/USD started a strong increase above the 1.0200 resistance zone. USD/JPY started a major decline below the 143.50 support zone.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/JPY

• The Euro formed a base and started a strong upward move above the 1.0200 zone.
• There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.0290 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
• USD/JPY declined sharply after it traded below the 145.60 support zone.
• There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 143.55 on the hourly chart.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

This past week, the Euro found support near the 0.9950 zone against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair started a steady upward move above the 1.0100 and 1.0200 resistance levels.

There was a steady increase above the 1.0350 resistance zone and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The pair even climbed above the 1.0400 resistance zone. A high was formed near 1.0479 on FXOpen and the pair is now consolidating gains.

EUR/USD Hourly Chart

An immediate resistance on the upside is near the 1.0380 level. It is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.0479 swing high to 1.0277 low.

The next major resistance is near the 1.0430 level. It is close to the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.0479 swing high to 1.0277 low. An upside break above 1.0430 could set the pace for another increase.

In the stated case, the pair might revisit 1.0480.  Any more gains might send the pair towards 1.0550. An initial support on the downside is near the 1.0340 level.

The first major support is near the 1.0300 level. There is also a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 143.55 on the hourly chart. The main support sits near the 1.0250 zone, below which the pair could start a major decline.

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Inflation in the UK hits high at 11..1% as US inflation goes down

The floundering British economy has once again been subject to a set of metrics that have marked out the severity of the current situation, this time it is yet again the announcement of an increase in inflation.

Inflation in the United Kingdom reached 11.1% in October 2022, which is higher than had originally been predicted, marking out the very bleak nature of the British economic situation especially considering that yesterday, the United States government issued official figures showing that its level of inflation had reduced significantly to 7.7%.

As can perhaps be expected, low-income households suffered the biggest jump in the cost of living, while high income households were less hit during that period, because low-income households spend more of their money on energy and food where costs have soared.

Surprisingly, however, despite the very high inflation figures in the United Kingdom, the British Pound actually rose against the US Dollar to 1.19 last night and has thus far sustained that level of value, but it fell against the Euro during the early hours of the trading day this morning.

It is looking likely that the Bank of England will not pause its program of increasing interest rates given the 11.1% inflation figure for October, giving more weight to the speculation that interest rates may rise to as much as 5% by January 2023, which would put pressure on people paying mortgages and other loans.

The housing market outside London has already slowed down tremendously compared to just two months ago after 10 banks across the United Kingdom withdrew mortgage products from the market.

Many analysts are looking back to the dark days of the early 1980s when the British economy was struggling after James Callaghan's 1979 'Winter of Discontent' in which there was no public money to pay for essential services and piles of household refuse were meters high in the streets, and companies implemented a 3-day working week due to inability to afford to pay wages.

Today, the set of circumstances that has led to this level of inflation are completely different to those of the late 1970s, hence the uncertainty of what lies ahead and volatility in the currency markets.

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ETHUSD and LTCUSD Technical Analysis – 17th NOV, 2022

ETHUSD: Bearish Engulfing Pattern Below $1349

Ethereum was unable to sustain its bullish momentum and after touching a high of 1349 on 10th Nov, the prices started to decline against the US dollar touching a low of 1171 on 14th Nov.

After this decline, we can see some upwards correction in the levels of Ethereum above the $1200 handle.

We have seen a bearish opening of the markets this week.

We can clearly see a bearish engulfing pattern below the $1349 handle which is a bearish pattern and signifies the end of a bullish phase and the start of a bearish phase in the markets.

ETH is now trading just below its pivot levels of 1204 and moving into a mildly bearish channel. The price of ETHUSD is now testing its classic support level of 1188 and Fibonacci resistance level of 1198 after which the path towards 1100 will get cleared.

The relative strength index is at 40 indicating a WEAK demand for Ether and the continuation of the selling pressure in the markets.

The prices are ranging near the horizontal resistance in the weekly time frame, indicating a bearish trend.

Both the STOCHRSI and Williams percent range are indicating oversold levels.

All of the technical indicators are giving a STRONG SELL market signal.

Most of the moving averages are giving a STRONG SELL signal and we are now looking at the levels of $1150 to $1100 in the short-term range.

ETH is now trading below both the 100 & 200 hourly simple and exponential moving averages.

• Ether: bearish reversal seen below the $1349 mark
• Short-term range appears to be mildly bearish
• ETH continues to remain below the $1300 level
• The average true range is indicating LESS market volatility

Ether: Bearish Reversal Seen Below $1349

ETHUSD is now moving in a mildly bearish channel with the prices trading below the $1300 handle in the European trading session today.

ETH continues to remain under pressure this month and fresh downsides are expected below the $1100 handle.

ETHUSD touched an intraday high of 1227 and an intraday low of 1193 in the Asian trading session today.

We can see a bullish price crossover pattern with moving averages MA50 and MA100 in the 1-hour time frame.

We can also see the formation of a black evening star pattern in the 15-minute time frame.

The daily RSI is printing at 38 indicating a very weak demand for Ether in the long-term range.

The key support level to watch is $1186 which is the last resistance level, and $1195 which is a 14-3 day raw stochastic at 20%

ETH has decreased by 3.15% with a price change of 38.81$ in the past 24hrs and has a trading volume of 11.524 billion USD.

We can see an increase of 1.46% in the total trading volume in the last 24 hrs which appears to be normal.

The Week Ahead

ETH price continues to remain in a bearish zone against the US dollar and bitcoin. ETHUSD is expected to move lower towards the $1100 and $11150 levels this week.

We can see the formation of a major bearish trend line in place from $1349 towards $1119 levels.

The immediate short-term outlook for Ether has turned mildly bearish, the medium-term outlook has turned neutral, and the long-term outlook for Ether is neutral in present market conditions.

The prices of ETHUSD will need to remain above the important support levels of $1094 which is the 3rd support pivot point.

The weekly outlook is projected at $1150 with a consolidation zone of $1100.

Technical Indicators:

The relative strength index (14): is at 37.20 indicating a SELL

The rate of price change: is at -1.23 indicating a SELL

Bull/Bear power (13): is at -14.17 indicating a SELL

High/lows (14): is at -7.94 indicating a SELL

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Gold Price Could Correct Lower, Crude Oil Price Breaks Key Support

Gold price climbed higher and traded above the $1,750 resistance. Crude oil price declined below the $86.00 and $83.80 support levels.

Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil

• Gold price found support near the $1,700 level and started a fresh increase against the US Dollar.
• There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support near $1,772 on the hourly chart of gold.
• Crude oil price gained bearish momentum below the $86.00 support zone.
• There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near $84.40 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

Gold price formed a base above the $1,700 level against the US Dollar. The price started a fresh increase and was able to clear the $1,720 and $1,740 resistance levels.

There was a clear move above the $1,750 resistance and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The price even broke the $1,780 level and traded as high as $1,786 on FXOpen. Recently, there was a downside correction below the $1,775 level.

Gold Price Hourly Chart

The price traded below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $1,702 swing low to $1,786 high. Besides, there was a break below a key bullish trend line with support near $1,772 on the hourly chart of gold.

An immediate support on the downside is near the $1,755 level. The next major support is near the $1,745 level or the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $1,702 swing low to $1,786 high, below which there is a risk of a larger decline.

In the stated case, the price could decline sharply towards the $1,722 support zone. On the upside, the first major resistance is near the $1,770 level.

The main resistance is now forming near the $1,785 level, above which it could even test $1,800. A clear upside break above the $1,800 resistance could send the price towards $1,840.

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Watch FXOpen's November 14 - 18 Weekly Market Wrap Video

In this video, FXOpen UK COO Gary Thomson sums up the week’s happenings and discusses the most significant news reports.

• How will Rishi Sunak affect the pound?
• US may avoid recession whereas Europe may plunge deeper
• EUR/USD rallies while USD/JPY takes a major hit
• GBPUSD reaches 1.20, what's next?
• Inflation in the UK hits high at 11.1% as US inflation goes down.

Watch our short and informative video, and stay updated with FXOpen.

FXOpen YouTube

Disclaimer: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing your money.

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GBP/USD Corrects Gains, USD/CAD Eyes Fresh Increase

GBP/USD climbed towards 1.2000 before it faced sellers. USD/CAD is rising and might gain pace above the 1.3450 resistance zone.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and USD/CAD

• The British Pound was able to move above the 1.1800 and 1.1900 resistance levels.
• There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.1900 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
• USD/CAD tested the 1.3220 zone and started a recovery wave.
• There is a major bullish trend line forming with support at 1.3370 on the hourly chart.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

After forming a base above the 1.1500, the British Pound started a steady increase against the US Dollar. GBP/USD gained pace for a move above the 1.1650 and 1.1800 resistance levels.

There was a move above the 1.1900 resistance and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The pair even moved above the 1.2000 level and traded as high as 1.2027 on FXOpen. It is now correcting gains and trading below the 1.1950 level.

GBP/USD Hourly Chart

Recently, there was a move below the 1.1920 and 1.1880 support levels. The pair declined below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.1764 swing low to 1.1951 high.

It is now trading below the 1.1880 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. On the downside, an initial support is near the 1.1835 area. It is near the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.1764 swing low to 1.1951 high.

The next major support is near the 1.1765 level. If there is a break below 1.1765, the pair could extend its decline. The next key support is near the 1.1650 level. Any more losses might call for a test of the 1.1550 support.

An immediate resistance is near the 1.1880 level. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.1900 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.

The next resistance is near the 1.1920 level. The main resistance is near the 1.2000 level. If there is an upside break above the 1.2000 zone, the pair could rise towards 1.2120. The next key resistance could be 1.2200.

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Disclaimer: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing your money.

 

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Pound's gains wiped off after tax-grab budget leads toward retail sales outlook

The monumental and sustained decline in value that blighted the British Pound over recent months in which it almost went into freefall with no sign of an end suddenly began to show signs of improvement a couple of weeks ago when Liz Truss, the British Prime Minister to hold the shortest tenure in office in British history - just 44 days - resigned.

Her resignation was considered a positive step by the markets, as along with her leaving her office, an equally short-lived stint in office for Chancellor of the Exchequer (Finance Minister) Kwasi Kwarteng also came to an end.

During Ms Truss' 44 day term as Prime Minster, she ramped up the rhetoric against Russia, presided over a disastrous mini-budget which was canceled the moment she left office, and created a sense of nervousness in the markets.

The pound began to recover after her tenure as Prime Minister ended, and although still very much in the doldrums and having not managed to reach 1.18 against the US Dollar which by contrast has been a very strong currency over recent months, the economic woes in the United Kingdom have been too grave to ignore.

Last week, new Prime Minister Rishi Sunak along with new Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt unveiled their new budget, which was laden with significant socialist-style tax increases, right at a time when the economy is in limp-home mode following the hundreds of billions which flowed out of the coffers during 2020 and 2021 under Mr Sunak's watch as Chancellor.

The pound crashed in value once again yesterday during the hours of the London trading session, and although it is not down to the low levels that it reached at the end of Ms Truss' tenure at Number 10 Downing Street, it did head back to the low 1.18 range.

It appears that the confidence-busting high-tax budget which now causes the average British household to be even more cash-strapped during what is being dubbed a 'cost of living crisis', and the potential that some high net worth individuals or companies with international offices may move their wealth to more tax-friendly jurisdictions, has caused investors and traders to take a conservative view once again.

This drop came in at exactly the time when earnings reports from many publicly-listed retail giants are about to be released, and whilst we do not know what those figures may be as yet, it is estimated by many analysts that they could be a bit lower than usual at this time of year due to people simply not having as much disposable income available as they once did, and the government's imminent interest rate rises which are estimated to reach around 5% by January 2023 as inflation soared over the 11% mark in Britain by Friday last week.

By contrast, the United States, whilst still blighted by high inflation over the past year, is not fairing so badly at all. At the end of last week, inflation in the United States actually decreased to 7.7%, and whilst that may still sound a lot compared to the levels that it stood at by the end of last decade, it is far lower than the 10% it reached by the summer of this year.

By no means is the United States economy out of the woods yet, but it is certainly showing signs of returning to some degree of fortitude.

Britain, by contrast, battles on with serious challenges ahead.

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BTCUSD and XRPUSD Technical Analysis – 22nd NOV 2022

BTCUSD: Shooting Star Pattern Below $17110

Bitcoin was unable to sustain its bullish momentum and after touching a high of 17110 on 15th Nov, the prices started to decline against the US dollar touching a low of 15509 on 21st Nov.

The global demand for bitcoin continues to remain weak, and the prices are expected to break below the $15000 handle soon.

We can see the formation of bearish engulfing lines in the weekly time frame.

The RSI indicator is under 30 in the 4-hour time frame indicating the neutral signal and oversold markets.

We can clearly see a shooting star pattern below the $17110 handle which is a bearish reversal pattern because it signifies the end of an uptrend and a shift towards a downtrend.

Bitcoin touched an intraday low of 15524 and an intraday high of 15948 in the Asian trading session today.

Both the STOCH and STOCHRSI are indicating overbought levels which means that in the immediate short term, a decline in the prices is expected.

The relative strength index is at 36 indicating a WEAK demand for bitcoin, and the continuation of the selling pressure in the markets.

Bitcoin is now moving below its 100 hourly simple moving average and below its 200 hourly exponential moving averages.

Most of the major technical indicators are giving a STRONG SELL signal, which means that in the immediate short term, we are expecting targets of 15500 and 15000.

The average true range is indicating LESS market volatility with a mildly bearish momentum.

• Bitcoin: bearish reversal seen below $17110
• The Williams percent range is indicating an overbought levels
• The price is now trading just above its pivot level of $15718
• All of the moving averages are giving a STRONG SELL market signal

Bitcoin: Bearish Reversal Seen Below $17110

We can now see that the price of bitcoin is moving in a mildly bearish momentum and we are expecting more downside waves in this week.

We can see that the support of the channel is broken in the daily time frame indicating bearish trends.

The price of bitcoin is ranging near a new record low of 1 month and 1 year’s time frame.

There is a descending channel forming which is expected to break the current support levels of bitcoin at $15716.

The immediate short-term outlook for bitcoin is strongly bearish, the medium-term outlook has turned bearish, and the long-term outlook remains neutral under present market conditions.

Bitcoin’s support zone is located at $15516 which is a 1-month and 1-year’s low point.

The price of BTCUSD is now facing its classic support level of 15583 and Fibonacci support level of 15682 after which the path towards 15500 will get cleared.

In the last 24hrs BTCUSD has decreased by 2.09% by 334$ and has a 24hr trading volume of USD 33.191 billion. We can see an increase of 12.91% in the trading volume compared to yesterday, which appears to be normal.

The Week Ahead

The price of bitcoin is moving near the 1-year low and has already broken the support levels of $15980 which is the last pivot point.

We can see a bearish trend reversal signal with the moving average MA50 in the 15-minute time frame.

The daily RSI is printing at 31 which indicates a weaker demand for bitcoin and the continuation of the selling pressure in the markets.

The price of BTCUSD will need to remain above the important support level of $14688 which is a 3–10-day MACD oscillator stalls.

The weekly outlook is projected at $15500 with a consolidation zone of $15000.

The Collapse of FTX

The cryptocurrency exchange FTX, valued at $26.5 billion last year, collapsed, which sent ripples through the crypto market and became the primary driving force for Bitcoin which is near the record lows of its 1 year.

FTX faced a liquidity crisis, and in the hours following, experienced a possible hack in which hundreds of millions worth of tokens were stolen.

FTX filed for bankruptcy on Nov. 11, 2022. The future of FTX as a cryptocurrency exchange is in serious jeopardy. As of mid-November 2022, withdrawals are disabled and a notice on the FTX website says the company “strongly advises against depositing.”

Technical Indicators:

The moving averages convergence divergence, MACD (12,26): is at -116.00 indicating a SELL

The commodity channel index, CCI (14): is at -75.95 indicating a SELL

The rate of price change, ROC: is at -0.140 indicating a SELL

Bull/Bear power (13): is at -141.77 indicating a SELL

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Disclaimer: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing your money.

Edited November 22, 2022 by Resolve

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EUR/USD Eyes Fresh Increase While USD/CHF Corrects Lower

EUR/USD is eyeing a fresh increase above the 1.0320 resistance zone. USD/CHF is correcting gains and might test the 0.9475 support zone.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/CHF

• The Euro started a fresh decline and tested the 1.0220 support against the US Dollar.
• There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.0315 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
• USD/CHF started a fresh increase after it was able to clear the 0.9500 resistance.
• There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support near 0.9540 on the hourly chart.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

This week, the Euro started a downside correction from the 1.0400 zone against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair declined below the 1.0320 support level to move into a short-term bearish zone.

The pair even tested the 1.0220 support zone. It traded as low as 1.0222 on FXOpen and recently started a decent increase. There was a move above the 1.0275 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The pair even cleared the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.0395 swing high to 1.0222 low.

EUR/USD Hourly Chart

An immediate resistance is near the 1.0320 level. There is also a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.0315 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.

The 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.0395 swing high to 1.0222 low is also near 1.0329 to act as resistance. The next major resistance is near the 1.0350 level. A clear move above the 1.0350 resistance zone could set the pace for a larger increase towards 1.0400.

The next major resistance is near the 1.0500 zone. On the downside, an immediate support is near the 1.0280 level. The next major support is near the 1.0265 level. A downside break below the 1.0265 support could start another decline.

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Disclaimer: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing your money.

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TOP-20 most powerful currencies in the world

According to the United Nations, 180 currencies are legal tender, but when asked what is the strongest currency in the world, what comes to mind? The US dollar, which is strengthening because of the Fed’s hawkish monetary policy stance in response to skyrocketing inflation. Or the euro, despite the International Monetary Fund predicting just 0.5% growth in the European economy in 2023 and warning that “the worst is yet to come” due to the war in Ukraine, record inflation, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Perhaps the British pound, despite the UK’s challenging domestic picture? You’d be surprised to learn that there are currencies that outperform the trio.

FXOpen has compiled a list of the world's top-20 currencies in the world as of 2022. Learn which is number one, and which are stronger than USD, EUR, and GBP despite the latters’ title of the most famous, most traded, and most widely spread currencies of the world.

Trading currencies involves simultaneously buying one currency and selling another, which is known as currency comparison. In the following list, all currencies are quoted against one US dollar.

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Disclaimer: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing your money.

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ETHUSD and LTCUSD Technical Analysis – 24th NOV, 2022

ETHUSD: Bullish Engulfing Pattern Above $1075

Ethereum was unable to sustain its bullish momentum and after touching a high of 1230 on 20th Nov, the prices started to decline against the US dollar touching a low of 1078 on 22nd Nov.

After this decline we can see some upwards correction in the levels of Ethereum towards the $1200 handle.

We can see a three white soldiers pattern in the daily time frame indicating the Bullish trend.

We can clearly see a bullish engulfing pattern above the $1075 handle which is a bullish pattern and signifies the end of a bearish phase and the start of a bullish phase in the markets.

ETH is now trading just above its pivot levels of 1201 and moving into a strongly bullish channel. The price of ETHUSD is now testing its classic resistance level of 1205 and Fibonacci resistance level of 1211 after which the path towards 1250 will get cleared.

The relative strength index is at 62 indicating a STRONG demand for Ether and the continuation of the buying pressure in the markets.

The Williams percent range is back over -50 in the daily time frame indicating a bullish sentiment.

The STOCHRSI is indicating an oversold level, which means that the prices are expected to correct upwards in the short-term range.

Most of the technical indicators are giving a STRONG BUY market signal.

Most of the moving averages are giving a BUY signal, and we are now looking at the levels of $1250 to $1300 in the short-term range.

ETH is now trading below its 100 hourly simple and exponential moving averages.

• Ether: bullish reversal seen above the $1075 mark
• The short-term range appears to be strongly bullish
• ETH continues to remain above the $1100 level
• The average true range is indicating LESS market volatility

Ether: Bullish Reversal Seen Above $1075

ETHUSD is now moving into a strongly bullish channel with the price trading above the $1100 handle in the European trading session today.

ETH continues to correct higher against the US dollar and is expected to stay above the $1200 level.

ETHUSD touched an intraday low of 1168 in the Asian trading session and an intraday high of 1217 in the European trading session today.

We can see the formation of both the bullish harami and bullish harami cross pattern in the 1-hour time frame.

The momentum indicator is back over zero in the 15-minute time frame.

The resistance of the channel is broken in the 1-hour time frame indicating a bullish trend.

The daily RSI is printing at 43 indicating a neutral demand for Ether in the long-term range.

The key support levels to watch are $1185 at which price crosses the 9-day moving average, and $1195 which is a 14-3 day raw stochastic at 20%.

ETH has increased by 3.00% with a price change of 35.00$ in the past 24hrs and has a trading volume of 11.226 billion USD.

We can see a decrease of 7.02% in the total trading volume in the last 24 hrs which appears to be normal.

The Week Ahead

ETH price continues to remain in a strongly bullish zone against the US dollar and bitcoin. ETHUSD is expected to correct higher towards the $1200 and $1300 levels this week.

We can see the formation of a major bullish trendline in place from $1075 towards $1234 level.

The immediate short-term outlook for Ether has turned strongly bullish, the medium-term outlook has turned neutral, and the long-term outlook for Ether is neutral in present market conditions.

The price of ETHUSD will need to remain above the important support levelsof $1144 which is a 3-10 day MACD oscillator stalls.

The weekly outlook is projected at $1250 with a consolidation zone of $1200.

Technical Indicators:

The relative strength index (14): is at 62.17 indicating a BUY

The rate of price change: is at 2.80 indicating a BUY

Bull/bear power (13): is at 8.042 indicating a BUY

High/lows (14): is at 3.72 indicating a BUY

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Disclaimer: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing your money.

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AUD/USD and NZD/USD Could Accelerate Higher

AUD/USD is moving higher and might accelerate higher above 0.6780. NZD/USD is also rising and might aim more upsides above 0.6300.

Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD

• The Aussie Dollar started a fresh increase above the 0.6550 and 0.6640 levels against the US Dollar.
• There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near 0.6715 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD.
• NZD/USD is gaining bullish pace above the 0.6250 support zone.
• There is a major bullish trend line forming with support near 0.6245 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The Aussie Dollar formed a base above the 0.6560 level and started a fresh increase against the US Dollar. The AUD/USD pair gained pace above the 0.6590 level to move into a positive zone.

There was a clear move above the 0.6640 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The pair even climbed above the 0.6720 level and traded as high as 0.6778. It is now correcting gains and trading below the 0.6770 level.

AUD/USD Hourly Chart

On the downside, an initial support is near the 0.6735 level. It is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.6585 swing low to 0.6778 high.

The next support could be the 0.6715 level. There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support near 0.6715 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD. If there is a downside break below the 0.6715 support, the pair could extend its decline towards the 0.6680 level.

It is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.6585 swing low to 0.6778 high. On the upside, the AUD/USD pair is facing resistance near the 0.6775 level.

The next major resistance is near the 0.6800 level. A close above the 0.6800 level could start a steady increase in the near term. The next major resistance could be 0.6920.

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Disclaimer: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing your money.

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Watch FXOpen's November 21 - 25 Weekly Market Wrap Video

In this video, FXOpen UK COO Gary Thomson sums up the week’s happenings and discusses the most significant news reports.

• Why is gold going up?
• NZD at 3-month highs
• COVID outbreak in China, oil finds support
• Bitcoin hits new year low amid rumors of another high-profile bankruptcy.

Watch our short and informative video, and stay updated with FXOpen.

FXOpen YouTube

Disclaimer: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing your money.

[Resolve]

GBP/USD and GBP/JPY At Risk of Downside Break

GBP/USD started a downside correction from the 1.2150 resistance. GBP/JPY is diving and there are chances of a move towards the 166.00 support.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and GBP/JPY

• The British Pound struggled to clear the 1.2150 resistance zone against the US Dollar.
• There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.2040 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
• GBP/JPY started a fresh decline from the 169.00 resistance zone.
• There was a break below a major bullish trend line with support near 167.85 on the hourly chart.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

This past week, the British Pound found support near the 1.1800 zone against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair formed a base and started a steady recovery wave above the 1.2000 level.

There was a clear move above the 1.2050 resistance and the 50 hourly simple moving average. However, the pair struggled to clear the 1.2150 resistance zone. A high was formed near 1.2153 on FXOpen and the pair started a downside correction.

GBP/USD Hourly Chart

There was a move below the 1.2100 support and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The pair declined below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the main increase from the 1.1778 swing low to 1.2153 high.

An immediate support is near the 1.2040. There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.2040 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.

The next major support is near the 1.2000 level. If there is a break below the 1.2000 support, the pair could test the 1.1965 support or the 50% Fib retracement level of the main increase from the 1.1778 swing low to 1.2153 high. Any more losses might send GBP/USD towards 1.1880.

An immediate resistance on the upside is near the 1.2075 level. The next major resistance is near the 1.2120 level, above which the pair could start a steady increase towards 1.2150.

An upside break above 1.2150 might start a fresh increase towards 1.2250. Any more gains might call for a move towards 1.2320 or even 1.2400.

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[Resolve]

GBP rises to 1.21 against USD in bizarre twist

A reduction in inflation is a good thing, is it not?

Surely when a national economy previously blighted by what appeared to be runaway inflation suddenly gets back on track and the inflation figure falls dramatically, this would be the sign of strengthening and therefore have a positive effect on the national sovereign currency?

In the case of the United States economy and the United States Dollar, quite the opposite appears to be the case.

The US Dollar has spent the majority of this year demonstrating remarkable strength against a floundering British Pound and almost equally floundering Euro, despite all of North America, Britain and mainland Europe being subject to similar levels of surging inflation.

The US Dollar held firmer because of the greater productivity which took place in the US economy during the past 2 years compared to all-encompassing lockdowns in Europe and the United Kingdom = by contrast only parts of the United States were subject to lockdowns - and the United States' overall return to productivity soon after that charade finished.

However, in terms of inflation levels, both continents on each side of the Atlantic had experienced almost double-digit inflation which was then countered by central bank intervention in the form of several interest rate rises.

Just last week, however, the United States inflation figure was recorded as having dropped to 7.7% whereas the United Kingdom's is now around 11% and rising, with potential interest rate figures of a projected 5% looking likely by early 2023.

Despite this, however, the US Dollar has actually declined in value compared to the British Pound, and the Pound is now making some headway after a long period of depreciation. This morning, the GBPUSD pair is trading at 1.21, which is a substantial increase over the 1.18 of last week.

One theory is that investors may be looking at some early indications that US inflation may finally be easing, potentially paving the way for the Federal Reserve (US central bank) to reduce the speed at which it has been boosting borrowing costs, therefore indicating that consumers may start borrowing again and in a period of economic difficulty, that would add to the nation's overall liabilities.

Conversely, many mortgage lenders in the United Kingdom have removed products from their range, making it much harder for people to get mortgages as the potential increase in interest rates which is predicted for next year is outside the risk management scope of retail mortgage lenders.

In short - they are worried that borrowers may not be able to afford the payments if the interest rate rises sharply.

Overall, keeping borrowing down is a prudent policy during times of economic difficulties.

Perhaps that is why the Pound suddenly struck back against the US Dollar. One thing's for sure, it is not because of any sudden prowess in the British money market; that is still in the doldrums and blighted by cost of living crises and high inflation.

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Disclaimer: This forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as financial advice.

[Resolve]

Crypto lender's demise sends fears into digital markets

The unsurprising fall out from the catastrophic and high profile demise of cryptocurrency exchange FTX has begun to make its presence felt.

At the end of the working day in the United States, it became publicly known that BlockFi, a commercial lending company which was founded in 2017 to provide credit services to markets with limited access to simple financial products, had gone bankrupt.

At one point in its five-year lifespan, BlockFi was valued at an astronomical $3 billion, however, like so many components of the modern economy, BlockFi has gone from startup to billion-dollar hyperbole, to ashes in just 5 years.

BlockFi announced earlier this month that it had halted withdrawals, citing “significant exposure” to the FTX exchange in the immediate aftermath of its demise. What that really means is that BlockFi had borrowed money from FTX, and when FTX went to the wall, BlockFi's assets became the interest of receivers.

This has represented yet another dark day for the digital asset sector, and this time has highlighted how it is not just cryptocurrency exchanges with unscrupulous owners that can collapse like a house of cards, but also others offering bona fide financial services such as lending, which can have their lives claimed because the board of directors put its faith in individuals such as Sam Bankman-Fried.

The result of this news is that Bitcoin had dipped in value once again over night, but interestingly it is now rising in value as the European markets opened this morning.

Bitcoin now stands at just a touch over $16,450, but certainly there has been some volatile movement this morning due to the 'sailing close to the wind' nature that BlockFi has demonstrated.

It may well be easy to blame BlockFi's demise on its dealings with FTX, but actually BlockFi had already shown signs of financial strife before Mr Bankman-Fried headed for the hills with his customers' money.

Back in the summer of this year, BlockFi ran into financial trouble and managed to secure a $250 million emergency funding from FTX.

Because BlockFi owed FTX this sum, the receivers moved in on BlockFi when FTX went bankrupt. At that time, Mark Renzi of Berkley Research Group stated in a corporate announcement “With the collapse of FTX, the BlockFi management team and board of directors immediately took action to protect clients and the Company.”

BlockFi revealed in its Chapter 11 petition that its three largest creditor claims are a $729 million indenture from Ankura Trust, a distressed loan administration company, a $275 million loan from West Realm Shires, the holding company for FTX’s US subsidiary, as well as a $30 million settlement payment to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

Big debts and a big bankruptcy. The question remains, is it a buyers market right now, or are the bears still out in force?

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Disclaimer: This forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as financial advice.

[Resolve]

BTCUSD and XRPUSD Technical Analysis – 29th NOV 2022

BTCUSD: Bullish Engulfing Pattern Above $15510

Bitcoin was unable to sustain its bearish momentum and after touching a low of 15510 on 21st Nov, the price started to correct upwards against the US dollar crossing the $16500 handle today in the European trading session.

The price of bitcoin continues to rise after the recent crash and now we are looking to cross the $17000 handle soon.

We can see the formation of bullish engulfing lines in the daily time frame.

The CCI indicator is giving a bullish divergence signal in the daily time frame.

We can clearly see a bullish engulfing pattern above the $15510 handle which is a bullish reversal pattern because it signifies the end of a downtrend and a shift towards an uptrend.

Bitcoin touched an intraday low of 16124 in the Asian trading session and an intraday high of 16536 in the European trading session today.

Both the STOCH and STOCHRSI are indicating overbought levels which means that in the immediate short term, a decline in the prices is expected.

The relative strength index is at 63 indicating a STRONG demand for bitcoin, and the continuation of the buying pressure in the markets.

Bitcoin is now moving above its 100 hourly simple moving average and 200 hourly exponential moving average.

Most of the major technical indicators are giving a STRONG BUY signal, which means that in the immediate short term, we are expecting targets of 17000 and 17500.

The average true range is indicating LESS market volatility with a strong bullish momentum.

• Bitcoin: a bullish reversal seen above $15510
• The Williams percent range is indicating an overbought level
• The price is now trading above its pivot level of $16509
• All of the moving averages are giving a STRONG BUY market signal

Bitcoin: Bullish Reversal Seen Above $15510

We can now see that the price of Bitcoin is moving in a strong bullish momentum and we are expecting more upside waves this week.

The Williams percent range indicator is back over -50 indicating a bullish scenario in the daily time frame.

The MACD has crossed UP its moving average in the 4-hour time frame indicating bullish trends.

We can see the formation of a bullish price crossover pattern with an adaptive moving average AMA100 in the 4-hour time frame.

The price of bitcoin is ranging near the support of the channel in the 15-minute time frame indicating a bullish trend.

The immediate short-term outlook for bitcoin is strongly bullish, the medium-term outlook has turned bullish, and the long-term outlook remains neutral under present market conditions.

Bitcoin’s support zone is located at $16155 which is a 14-3 day raw stochastic at 20%.

The price of BTCUSD is now facing its classic resistance level of 16536 and Fibonacci resistance level of 16550 after which the path towards 17000 will get cleared.

In the last 24hrs, BTCUSD has increased by 1.92% by 310$, and has a 24hr trading volume of USD 26.099 billion. We can see an increase of 3.95% in the trading volume compared to yesterday, which appears to be normal.

The Week Ahead

The price of Bitcoin is expected to enter the super bullish zone above the $17000 handle. There is an ascending channel forming with current support at $15510 on the hourly chart of BTCUSD.

We can see that the MACD indicator is back over zero in the 2-hour time frame indicating the bullish scenario present in the markets.

The daily RSI is printing at 41 which indicates a weaker demand for bitcoin and the possibility of a shift towards the consolidation/correction phase for a short term in the markets.

The price of BTCUSD is now facing its resistance zone at $17113 which is a 14-3 day raw stochastic at 50%.

The weekly outlook is projected at $17500 with a consolidation zone of $17000.

Technical Indicators:

The moving averages convergence divergence, MACD (12,26): is at 48.30 indicating a BUY

The commodity channel index, CCI (14): is at 93.27 indicating a BUY

The rate of price change, ROC: is at 1.537 indicating a BUY

The bull/bear power (13): is at 217.36 indicating a BUY

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Disclaimer: This forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as financial advice.

[Resolve]

EUR/USD Correct Gains While EUR/JPY Faces Key Hurdle

EUR/USD is gaining pace above the 1.0000 resistance. EUR/JPY is also rising and might climb further higher above the 147.00 zone.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and EUR/JPY

• The Euro started a downside correction from the 1.0500 resistance zone.
• There is a key declining channel forming with support near 1.0310 on the hourly chart.
• EUR/JPY started a strong decline and settled below the 144.50 support zone.
• There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 144.15 on the hourly chart.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro formed a base above the 1.0200 zone and started recovery wave against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair was able to clear the 1.0320 and 1.0400 resistance levels.

There was a clear move above the 1.0420 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The pair even climbed above 1.0450 and traded as high as 1.0496. It is now correcting gains below the 1.0450 level.

EUR/USD Hourly Chart

There was a drop below the 1.0350 level and the pair traded as low as 1.0319. On the downside, the pair might find support near the 1.0320 level. Besides, there is a key declining channel forming with support near 1.0310 on the hourly chart.

The next major support sits near the 1.0265 level, below which the pair could even test the 1.0220 support zone. If there is a downside break below the 1.0220 support, the pair might accelerate lower in the coming sessions.  In the stated case, it could even test 1.0150.

On the upside, an immediate resistance is near the 1.0375 level. The next major resistance is near the 1.0400 level or the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.0496 swing high to 1.0319 low. The main resistance is near the 1.0450 level.

A clear move above the 1.0450 resistance might send the price towards 1.0500. If the bulls remain in action, the pair could visit the 1.0550 resistance zone in the near term.

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Disclaimer: This forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as financial advice.

[Resolve]

Bitcoin responds positively as Brazil welcomes crypto payments

Within Latin America, Brazil has for many years been a burgeoning economic force.

It is a large nation with a diversified economy, ranging from manufacturing and engineering to banking and tertiary services and is part of the all-important BRICS (Brazil, India, China, South Africa) economic bloc.

Like all other nations in South America, Brazil is a developing economy, but it has been rapidly developing and is far ahead of all of the other national economies in the continent.

Today, Brazil's government has taken a very prominent step forward in announcing that the country's lawmakers have approved a bill which regulates Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies as a payment instrument.

Investors appear to have responded well to the news, as Bitcoin began to pump almost immediately, followed by a short squeeze and then it pumped again.

Bitcoin is currently trading at $16,876.80, which is a 2.68% increase over yesterday's value. That may not sound very much on the face of it, but Bitcoin values have been very stagnant recently, so a 2.68% increase when viewed on the chart is quite significant.

Private individuals and businesses have a lot to gain from the new ruling which allows cryptocurrency to be used as a method of payment, because South American economies for many decades now have been synonymous with rampant inflation, draconian capital control laws causing people to lose their money when it depreciates, and in many countries in South America, a deep-seated distrust in the local banking infrastruture or government policy.

Around 10 years ago, neighboring Argentina ordered the liquidation of US Dollar bank accounts held in North America by Argentinian citizens, and that the US Dollars should be repatriated to Argentina and converted to Pesos. At the same time, capital controls were invoked so that nobody could transfer their Pesos out of the country without government permission.

This meant that anyone who adhered to that rule would be at grave risk of substantial loss due to a terrible conversion rate and then having to store Pesos which are notorious for depreciating at the rate of an iron girder falling off a cliff.

At that time, Bitcoin was in its absolute infancy, and still very much an unknown quantity. It had a tiny following of enthusiasts and 1 Bitcoin was worth something like $50, however a core group of Argentinian enthusiasts began to rally the cause of Bitcoin, largely because they saw it as an independent method of conducting their everyday life without the restrictions and inflationary chaos associated with Peso.

Now, many years later, Bitcoin and many other cryptocurrencies are very established globally, and South America's largest economy is opening its doors to them.

If this paves the way for greater acceptance across the South American continent, it could well be a boon for citizens as well as for the cryptocurrency market itself.

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Disclaimer: This forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as financial advice.

[Resolve]

ETHUSD and LTCUSD Technical Analysis – 01st DEC, 2022

ETHUSD: Piercing Pattern Above $1151

Ethereum was unable to sustain its bearish momentum and after touching a low of 1151 on 23rd Nov, the price started to correct upwards against the US dollar crossing the $1300 handle today in the Asian trading session.

After touching $1300 handle we can see some downward correction in the levels of Ethereum which is expected to enter into a consolidation phase now.

We can see the formation of bullish engulfing lines in the 2-hour time frame.

We can clearly see a piercing pattern above the $1151 handle which is a bullish pattern and signifies the end of a bearish phase and the start of a bullish phase in the markets.

ETH is now trading just below its pivot level of 1284 and is moving into a consolidation channel. The price of ETHUSD is now testing its classic resistance level of 1290 and Fibonacci resistance level of 1296 after which the path towards 1300 will get cleared.

The relative strength index is at 67 indicating a STRONG demand for Ether and the continuation of the buying pressure in the markets.

We can see both the bullish harami and bullish harami cross pattern in the 15-minute time frame.

Both the STOCH and STOCHRSI are indicating overbought levels, which means that the prices are expected to decline in the short-term range.

Most of the technical indicators are giving a STRONG BUY market signal.

Most of the moving averages are giving a BUY signal and we are now looking at the levels of $1300 to $1350 in the short-term range.

ETH is now trading above its 100 hourly simple and exponential moving averages.

• Ether: bullish reversal seen above the $1151 mark
• The short-term range appears to be mildly bullish
• ETH continues to remain above the $1200 level
• The average true range is indicating HIGH market volatility

Ether: Bullish Reversal Seen Above $1151

ETHUSD is now moving into a mildly bullish channel with the prices trading above the $1200 handle in the European trading session today.

ETH is now preparing to enter into a consolidation phase above the $1250 handle, after which fresh upside waves are expected.

ETHUSD touched an intraday high of 1304 in the Asian trading session and an intraday low of 1277 in the European trading session today.

We can see a bullish trend reversal signal with adaptive moving averages AMA20 and AMA50 in the 15-minute time frame.

The resistance of the channel is broken in the daily time frame indicating a bullish trend.

The daily RSI is printing at 52 indicating a neutral demand for Ether in the long-term range.

The key support levels to watch are $1202 which is a 14-3 day raw stochastic at 70% and $1211 at which price crosses 18 day moving average.

ETH has increased by 1.19% with a price change of 15.13$ in the past 24hrs and has a trading volume of 7.849 billion USD.

We can see a decrease of 2.57% in the total trading volume in the last 24 hrs which appears to be normal.

The Week Ahead

ETH price continues to remain under bullish pressure and after the current consolidation wave is over, we can expect fresh upsides in the ranges of $1300 and $1400 this week.

We can see the formation of a major bullish trendline in place from $1151 towards $1295 levels.

The immediate short-term outlook for Ether has turned bullish, the medium-term outlook has turned neutral, and the long-term outlook for Ether is neutral in present market conditions.

The price of ETHUSD will need to remain above the important support level of $1208 at which the price crosses the 9-day moving average stalls.

The weekly outlook is projected at $1400 with a consolidation zone of $1350.

Technical Indicators:

The relative strength index (14): is at 67.69 indicating a BUY

The rate of price change: is at 9.65 indicating a BUY

The bull/bear power (13): is at 46.55 indicating a BUY

The high/lows (14): is at 33.40 indicating a BUY

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Disclaimer: This forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as financial advice.

[Resolve]

Gold Price and Crude Oil Price Aim More Upsides, Bulls In Control

Gold price climbed higher and traded above the $1,780 resistance. Crude oil price is also rising and might climb further higher above $82.50.

Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil

• Gold price found support near the $1,720 level and started a fresh increase against the US Dollar.
• There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near $1,792 on the hourly chart of gold.
• Crude oil price gained bullish momentum above the $80.00 resistance zone.
• There is a major bullish trend line forming with support near $81.00 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

Gold price formed a base above the $1,720 level against the US Dollar. The price started a fresh increase and was able to clear the $1,750 and $1,765 resistance levels.

There was a clear move above the $1,780 resistance and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The price even broke the $1,800 level and traded as high as $1,804 on FXOpen. Recently, there was a downside correction below the $1,800 level.

Gold Price Hourly Chart

An immediate support on the downside is near the $1,792 level. There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support near $1,792 on the hourly chart of gold.

The trend line is close to the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $1,745 swing low to $1,804 high. The next major support is near the $1,775 level or the 50 hourly simple moving average.

The 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $1,745 swing low to $1,804 high is also near $1,775, below which there is a risk of a larger decline.

In the stated case, the price could decline sharply towards the $1,750 support zone. On the upside, the first major resistance is near the $1,800 level.

The main resistance is now forming near the $1,805 level, above which it could even test $1,820. A clear upside break above the $1,820 resistance could send the price towards $1,840.

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Disclaimer: This forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as financial advice.

[Resolve]

Watch FXOpen's November 28 - December 2 Weekly Market Wrap Video

In this video, FXOpen UK COO Gary Thomson sums up the week’s happenings and discusses the most significant news reports.

• How energy markets are reacting to the COVID surge in China
• GBP rises to 1.21 against USD in bizarre twist
• Brazil to legalize cryptocurrencies
• The US dollar suffers biggest fall in 12 years.

Watch our short and informative video, and stay updated with FXOpen.

FXOpen YouTube

Disclaimer: This forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as financial advice.

[Resolve]

GBP/USD Rallies Further, EUR/GBP Takes A Hit

GBP/USD started a fresh increase above the 1.2150 resistance. EUR/GBP failed to stay above the 0.8600 support and declined towards 0.8550.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP

• The British Pound started a fresh increase after it broke the 1.2050 resistance against the US Dollar.
• There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near 1.2000 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
• EUR/GBP started a fresh decline after it failed to surpass the 0.8675 resistance zone.
• There was a break below a major contracting triangle with support near 0.8615 on the hourly chart.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The British Pound found support near the 1.1920 zone against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair started a fresh increase and was able to clear the 1.2000 resistance zone.

There was a also a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near 1.2000 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD. The pair even surpassed the 1.2150 resistance zone and the 50 hourly simple moving average.

GBP/USD Hourly Chart

Recently, there was a minor downside correction from the 1.2300 zone. The pair dipped below the 1.2200 level. A low was formed near 1.2134 on FXOpen and the pair started a fresh increase.

There was a clear move above the 1.2250 resistance. The pair surpassed the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2310 swing high to 1.2134 low. It is now trading above the 1.2310 swing high.

On the upside, an initial resistance is near the 1.2350 level. It is near the 1.236 Fib extension level of the downward move from the 1.2310 swing high to 1.2134 low.

The next main resistance is near the 1.2400 zone. A clear upside break above the 1.2400 and 1.2420 resistance levels could open the doors for a steady increase in the near term. The next major resistance sits near the 1.2500 level.

On the downside, an initial support is near the 1.2300 level, below which it could test the 1.2250 support. The next major support is near the 1.2230 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. Any more losses could lead the pair towards the 1.2200 support zone.

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Disclaimer: This forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as financial advice.

Edited December 5, 2022 by Resolve

[Resolve]

Brent Crude Oil is on the up as G7 price cap deals blow

The price of Brent Crude oil is once again on the rise, after a slow and steady decline during early to mid November bottomed out at $76.28 per barrel on November 26.

Since then, the price has been increasing, and today Brent Crude Oil (WTI) is trading at $81.41 per barrel which is a two week high.

This could partly be down to the price cap for oil purchases from Russia having been set by the European Union at $60 per barrel.

This was set late last week in the form of a limit on the price of Russian seaborne crude and therefore constrain revenues the Kremlin makes from the commodity.

However, the market price of crude oil was at the time around $79 per barrel, meaning that the Russian oil companies refused to sell oil to European Union member states which adhered to this price cap, because it is far below the market value.

As a result, demand increased as the potential supply of crude oil to Europe could be affected by the price cap in which European oil purchasers would be expected to adhere to a policy of paying approximately $20 per barrel less than market value for oil imported from Russian oil giants, an offer which of course has been declined by said oil giants as there is no way they will sell oil to commercial clients for three quarters of its real value.

At the end of last week, Russian energy industry had issued a warning that an oil price cap could wreak havoc on the energy markets and push commodity prices even higher. They weren't wrong.

According to an official document from the European Union, this price limit would be subject to regular review in order to monitor its market ramifications. The document stated that the price should be “at least 5% below the average market price" however the $60 that the cap is currently set at is more than 20% less than the average market value of crude oil.

Given that Russia is an OPEC nation and one of its major national industries is the extraction, refinement and export of raw materials for energy generation, there is no likelihood that Russian energy firms would accept this price for oil products.

The raw materials that the Russian economy relies so heavily on are consumable commodities, traded on global exchanges and with the ability to be used as collateral to back economic asset classes and against national debts. These are liquid gold and therefore will be valued and treated as such.

Volatility in the oil market is here once again.

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Disclaimer: This forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as financial advice.

[Resolve]

UK's recession bites again as Pound dives to 1.22 against US Dollar

After a long period of declining values which blighted the British Pound during the course of the late summer and early autumn period, resulting in it plummeting to a low of 1.18 against the US Dollar at one point, the British sovereign currency managed to pick itself up during November.

The economic chaos that has been clearly visible across Britain reached melting point when the shortest ever prime ministerial post, held for just 44 days by Liz Truss, ended with her catastrophic budget having been completely reversed once she left office.

With an unstable government and confidence in the domestic economy which is now encumbered by double-figure inflation, the Pound had been at its lowest point for many years, until November when it began to steadily rise again.

By the end of last week, the British Pound was at 1.24 against the US Dollar, which is not a bad comeback considering that the British economy continues to flounder, however this week it has been plummeting again.

Yesterday, the Confederation of British Industries (CBI) told CNN that the United Kingdom faces a “lost decade” of low growth if action isn’t taken to address slumping business investment and worker shortages.

“Britain is in stagflation — with rocketing inflation, negative growth, falling productivity and business investment. Firms see potential growth opportunities but a lack of ‘reasons to believe’ in the face of headwinds are causing them to pause investing in 2023,” CBI director general Tony Danker said in a statement.

Energy prices are once again soaring, and the likelihood that interest rates may reach as high as 5% in the real market by early 2023 are indicators that those who are already feeling the pinch may have yet more to come, thus investor confidence remains low and caution is in place.

An interesting metric is that due to the sustained period of high inflation, wage depreciation has been a metric which has been looked at carefully by analysts and economists.

It may well be that the drop in wages in the United Kingdom in the third quarter of 2022 was lower than the previous two quarters of the year, but it has still been one of the largest since this metric began being measured in 2001.

Lower purchasing power due to decreasing wages combined with potentially higher interest rates indicate a possibility of lower spending and therefore potentially lower sales figures in all areas across the entirety of the United Kingdom's consumer markets.

Bearishness is an inevitable byproduct of such dynamics, hence the Pound now languishing once again with a steep decline to 1.22 during the past two days.

Volatility in the major currency market is certainly back.

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Disclaimer: This forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as financial advice.