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Daily Forex market review 28 July 2016

 

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EUR/USD (Euro/dollar pair) 


- On the bond market, trend for euro is still negative: spread of yield of the 10-years' US and German bonds is expanded. It makes investment in US assets more attractive.

- ADX indicator on the 4-hours' chart shows the uptrend; whereas on the hourly chart it shows the flat.

- RSI indicator shapes divergence in the overboughtness zone on the hourly chart, which means the downtrend

- Recommendation: trade inside the flat 1.1030 -1.1130. (one ten thirty – one eleven thirty)

The next pair - GBP/USD (Pound/dollar)

- The day before, traders ignored strong report on UK GDP for the second quarter. It proves a large number of sellers in the market. Another negative factor for the pair is sales on the oil market. The day before, US Department of Energy reported an increase of crude oil reserves by 1.6 (one dot six) million barrels – and that was after a nine-weeks' drop of reserves.

- Both indicators - RSI and ADX - show the flat on the daily, 4-hours and hourly charts

- Today, there is the flat range 1.3060 -1.3250  (one thirty sixty - one thirty two fifty) (which corresponds to Bollinger envelope on the hourly chart)

- Recommendation: We should open Sell trades from 1.3250 (one thirty two fifty) , and take profit at 1,3100 (one thirty one double zero).

And finally, USD/JPY (Dollar/Japanese Yen)

- Multidirectional vector of monetary policy of the US and Japanese Central Banks leaves investors no choice but to building long positions on decline of the price. Dynamics of the US stock market also indicates a continued uptrend: the day before, the fear index VIX closed the day in the "red zone", which is a positive factor for the stock market.

- ADX indicator on the daily chart shows the uptrend; whereas on the hourly chart it shows the downtrend.

- RSI indicator shapes divergence in the oversoldness zone on the hourly chart, which means the uptrend

- Recommendation: We should open Buy trades from 104.50 (one hundred and four dot fifty) and take profit at 105,50.  (one hundred and five dot fifty)

 

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Daily Forex market review 2 August 2016

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EUR/USD (Euro/dollar pair) 
- On the one hand,  sales on the commodity market will support the US currency, as the cost of commodities is  denominated in USD. On the other hand, weak PMI on the  UK manufacturing sector can have a positive impact on EUR/GBP (euro/pound) cross-rate. In its turn, it is positive for EUR/USD, so we expect a flat on this pair.
- ADX indicator on the daily and 4-hours charts shows the uptrend.
- RSI indicator on the 4-hours chart is overbought, which means the downtrend.
- Recommendation: trade inside the flat 1.1150 -1.1210 (one dot eleven fifty - one twelve ten)
The next pair - GBP/USD (Pound/dollar)
- Today, Markit information company will publish PMI report on the UK construction sector. Taking into account Brexit, we can expect release of weak data. Political risks jeopardize commercial and residential property markets. Sales are still observed on the oil market and Brent quotations are to test the psychological level $40/barrel, which means the downtrend.
Both indicators – ADX and RSI – on the daily, 4-hour s and hourly charts show the flat.
- Recommendation: Open Sell trades at 1,3220 (one thirty two  twenty) and take profit at 1,3140 (one thirty one forty)
And finally, USD/JPY (Dollar/Japanese Yen)
- The day before, the "fear" index VIX S&P five hundred 500 grew by 6%. In Europe, leaders of the most notable decline were shares of the banking sector including Italian shares. The outflow from risky assets will cause the inflow of capital into the Japanese yen, which means the downtrend.
Both indicators – ADX and RSI – on the daily, 4-hour s and hourly charts show the flat.
- Recommendation: Open Sell trades at 102.45 (one hundred and two dot forty five) and take profit at 101.90 (one hundred and one dot ninety).
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Daily Forex market review 3 August 2016

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EUR/USD (Euro/dollar pair) 
- Today the United States will publish the reports on employment from ADP and business activity in the field of services from ISM. Taking into account the fast economic growth, both indicators may be better than the consensus forecast, which is positive for US dollar.
- ADX indicator on the daily and 4-hours charts shapes the uptrend; whereas on the hourly chart it shows the downtrend.
- RSI indicator on the 4-hours chart is in the overboughtness area and has formed a divergence there, which means the downtrend.
- Recommendation: trade inside the flat 1.1150 -1.1210  (one dot eleven fifty - one twelve ten) .
The next pair - GBP/USD (Pound/dollar)
- In the afternoon, we will probably see the negative release on crude oil reserves from the US Department of Energy. It will put the oil under pressure and in this regard, we can see the demand in the US currency, as the cost of commodity is denominated in US dollars.
- ADX indicator on the daily and 4-hours charts shows the flat; whereas on the hourly chart it shows the downtrend.
- RSI indicator on the daily, 4-hours and hourly charts shows the flat
- Recommendation: Open Sell trades at 1,3365  (one thirty three sixty five) and take profit at 1,3265  (one thirty two sixty five).
And finally, USD/JPY (Dollar/Japanese Yen)

- An outflow of capital from risky assets supported the Japanese yen as a funding currency. The day before, on US stock market, the index of "fear" VIX S&P500 grew by 7.4% (seven dot four per cent), which means the downtrend.
- ADX Indicator on the monthly and weekly charts shows the downtrend; on the daily, 4-hours and hourly charts it shows the flat
- RSI indicator on the daily and hourly charts shows the flat.
- Recommendation: Open Sell trades at 101.30 (one hundred and one dot thirty) and take profit at 100.60 (one hundred sharply dot sixty) 
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Daily Forex market review 4 August 2016

 

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EUR/USD (Euro/dollar pair) 

Spread between yield of 10 years' US and German bonds is expanded, which is negative for euro. Oil correction will be short-term and soon we will see another drop of quotations to the psychological level $40 per barrel, which is negative for euro, too. So, this is the downtrend.

- ADX indicator on the 4-hours and hourly charts shows the downtrend.

- RSI indicator on the hourly chart has formed a divergence and this was done in the oversoldness zone. So, it shows the uptrend on the hourly chart.

- Recommendation: Open Sell trades at 1,1165 (one dot eleven sixty five) and take profit at 1,1100 (one dot eleven double zero).

The next pair - GBP/USD (Pound/dollar)

- The main event today will be announcement of results of the Bank of England's meeting on monetary policy. If the Bank of England cuts the rate, this may cause a fall of the British currency. If the rate remains at the same level, the pound may grow.

- ADX indicator on the 4-hours and hourly charts shows the flat; on the hourly chart it shows the downtrend.

- RSI indicator on the daily, 4-hours and hourly charts shows the flat.

- Recommendation: If the Bank of England cuts the rate, we should open Sell positions so that take profit in 100 points. 
If the Bank of England does not cut the interest rate, we should open Buy position so that take profit in 50 points.

And finally, USD/JPY (Dollar/Japanese Yen)

- Today's trading results will be determined by the "risk appetite" of investors. On Wednesday, the shares of Deutsche Bank were excluded from the Euro Stoxx 50 index. The reason was a heavy drop of its capitalization. This is another wake-up call for players of the stock market as Deutsche Bank is a financial institution number one in Europe. So, this is the downtrend.

- ADX indicator on a monthly and weekly charts shows the downtrend. On the hourly chart, it is the uptrend

- On the hourly chart RSI indicator is approaching the oversoldness zone, which indicates that the upward correction is over.

- Recommendation: Open Sell trades at 101.70 (one hundred and one seventy) and take profit at 101.00. ( (one hundred and one sharply)

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Daily Forex market review 5 August 2016

 

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EUR/USD (Euro/dollar pair)

- If we see a total NPF figure above the 200 (two hundred thousand), that will be enough to strengthen the US currency. This result is very probable, because in July the number of applications for unemployment benefits fell to its lowest level since 1973 (nineteen seventy three), which means the downtrend.

- ADX indicator on the daily and the hourly charts shows the uptrend; whereas on the 4-hours chart it shows the downtrend.

- RSI on the daily, 4-hours and hourly charts shows the flat.

- Recommendation: trade inside the flat 1,1080-1,1180 (one ten eighty – one eleven eighty).

The next pair - GBP/USD (Pound/dollar)

- The Bank of England has cut the key rate by 0.25% (zero dot twenty five per cent) and enhanced its QE program. It intends to lower the rate again later this year. GDP forecasts for 2016 - 2018 years were revised in the negative direction, which means the downtrend.

- ADX indicator on the daily and 4-hours charts shows the flat; on the hourly chart it shows the downtrend.

- RSI on the daily, 4-hours and hourly charts shows the flat.

- There is a strong bearish candle formed on August 4, which means the downtrend.

- Recommendation: Open Sell trades at 1,3145 (one thirty one forty five) and take profit at 1,3065 (one thirty one sixty five).

And finally, USD/JPY (Dollar/Japanese Yen)

- Global stock markets are growing, which should lift the pair, but traders ignored positive background. It indicates presence of a large number of sellers in the market, which means the downtrend.

- ADX indicator on the daily and 4-hours charts shows the flat; whereas on the hourly chart it shows the downtrend.

- RSI on the daily, 4-hours and hourly charts shows the flat

- Recommendation: trade inside the flat 100,60-101,60 (one hundred dot sixty - one hundred and one sixty)

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Daily Forex market review 2 August 2016

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EUR/USD (Euro/dollar pair)
- Yield of the 10-years' German bonds (paragon bonds for the euro zone) has dropped against US and UK bonds, which usually is a negative factor for euro, whether it is paired with dollar and pound . So, it is the downtrend.
- ADX indicator on the daily chart shows the uptrend; whereas on the 4-hours and hourly charts it is the downward trend.
- RSI indicator on the hourly chart is heavily oversold, so this is a signal of an upward correction.
- Recommendation: Open Sell trades at 1,1308 (one thirteen zero eight) and take profit at 1,1280 (one twelve eighty).
The next pair - GBP / USD (Pound/dollar)
- Yield of the 10-years' UK bonds is growing against US and German bonds. It makes investments in British assets more attractive. So, it is the uptrend.
- ADX indicator on the daily and the hourly charts shows the flat; whereas on the 4-hours chart, the trend is downward.
- RSI indicator  shows the flat on the daily, 4-hours and hourly charts.
- Recommendation: trade inside the flat 1.3015 -1.3095 (one thirty fifteen - one thirty ninety five)
And finally, USD/JPY (Dollar/Japanese Yen)
- An outflow of capital from risky assets indicates a downtrend, because the capital will go to the yen as a funding currency Number One in the carry trade operations. So, it is the uptrend.
- ADX indicator on the daily and hourly charts shows the flat; whereas on the 4-hours chart, the trend is downward.
- RSI indicator on the daily and hourly charts shows the flat; on the 4-hours chart, the trend is down.
- Recommendation: trade inside the flat 100,20-101,20 (one hundred sharply dot twenty - one hundred and one dot twenty).
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Daily Forex market review 25 August 2016

 

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Currency market review for August twenty fifth

EUR/USD (Euro/dollar pair)

Release by the IFO institute can be a little worse than it was expected. The reason is that PMI composite index by Markit institution was released below the median forecast. Sales in the commodity market usually support US dollar, becase the cost of commodities is denominated in US currency. Thus, the trend is downward.

- ADX indicator on the daily chart shows the uptrend; whereas on the 4-hour chart and hourly charts it shows the flat.

- RSI indicator on the daily, 4-hours and hourly charts shows the flat.

- Recommendation: trade inside the flat 1.1245 -1.1295 (one twelve forty five - one twelve ninety five) (which corresponds to the Bollinger bands range on the hourly chart)

The next pair - GBP / USD (Pound/dollar)

- On the one hand, yield of the 10-years UK bonds is growing against US and German bonds, which is positive for the pound. On the other hand, yesterday oil closed the day in the "red zone", and the negative trend is still relevant, which will put the pair GBP/USD under pressure. Thus, it is the flat.

- ADX indicator on the daily and hourly charts shows the flat; on the 4-hours chart it is the uptrend.

- RSI indicator on the daily, 4-hours and hourly charts shows the flat.

- Recommendation: trade inside the flat 1.3200 - 1.3265 (one thirty two double zero - one thirty two sixty five) (which corresponds to the Bollinger bands range on the hourly chart)

And finally, USD/JPY (Dollar/Japanese Yen)

- Growth of the index of fear VIX by 8.6% (eight dot six per cent) for the third trading day in a row signals a possible inflow of capital into safe assets, which usually the Japanese yen is related to. Thus, the trend is downward.

- Both indicators – ADX and RSI - show the flat on the daily, 4-hours and hourly charts.

- Recommendation: Open Sell trades at 100,55 (one hundred dot fifty five) and take profit at 100,15 (one hundred dot fifteen).

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  • 3 weeks later...

Crude oil supported at 48.51

Gold weekly review

Crude oil supported at 48.51

Weekly Review:

The yellow metal continues to consolidate within the contracting triangular formation. As long as the metal trades within this wedge, we expect a possible bullish price movements towards $1307 or even higher. A clear breakout below the lower trend line forming bottom of the wedge could culminate into a possible bearish price movements $1244 or even lower. This commodity should be traded alongside gold, only remain long in gold if silver is giving the same signal, any serious discrepancy between their price action could mean we're standing aside.
 
Trade Recommendation:

As long as the commodity trades within the rising wedge, remain long. Any clear breakout below the wedge will mean looking for short positions with an ideal target at $1244.
Check the website for more information: https://freshforex.com/analitics/fresh-forecast/forex-correlation-and-Elliott-wave-analysis/week_1878.html

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  • 3 weeks later...

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With Dollar Index still very much high, USD has been very strong across the board and most of the major currencies are under pressure! That being said, the clues are coming from other markets, especially bond market where the yields are rising and stocks seems on high! Everything looks good from here for USD unless a major calamity happens!

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A slide of nearly 250 pips marked this pair’s price action this week which was in marked contrast to last week in which this pair resisted the move to go down. Traders are also keeping an eye on the Bond & Stock markets to get some clues and of course the fund flows! I don’t think this pair might recover much and go up even if FED does not raises the rate as traders would be fixated on Brexit woes!

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A nearly 300 pips gain this week for this pair consolidated & built on last week’s gains. Further gains are not ruled out and the next major risk event is FED’s meeting in Dec 2016 and of course new Administration in USA in January 2017 where some major policies might change. For, the time being traders are focusing on FED event!

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A gain of 1.40% was not bad considering that Euro was not that strong this week, so this is very much impressive. It might be mostly by JPY led moves which was down against almost everything and a strong Nikkie. I think this pair might just be in consolidation mode from here for a near term and track the other related pairs/markets for further clues on its directions.

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Euro in a corrective mode

28 November 2016, EUR/USD

 

 

Euro in a corrective mode

Wave Analysis:
 
Earlier today, Euro gapped above a key resistance level 1.06087, headed long but is currently retreating towards it. We expect the level 1.06513 to have marked the end of the impulsive wave (3) that the current downward rally is the unfolding of the corrective wave (4) and must not go beyond the end of wave (1) from where we'll be looking to buy the next motive wave (5) towards 1.0724. In the meantime, we choose to remain short with the corrective wave (4) towards 1.10687 Expect a similar wave count in NZD/USD, AUD/USD and GBP/USD. These pairs have a strong positive correlation of up to +0.96% and will have a similar price action during intaday.

Trade recommendations:

Expect a possible bearish price rally towards 1.06087
Check the website for more information: https://freshforex.com/analitics/fresh-forecast/forex-correlation-and-Elliott-wave-analysis/issue_84083.html

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  • 4 weeks later...

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The pair initially went down in continuance of common pattern of increased USD demand but later tracked higher and closed the week near where it started and as such kind of flat with little gain. The pre-holiday jitters were seen in the market with mixed results via order flows as most big players re-positioned their trades as the year ended. Further clues would come from new government in USA and for Eurozone there might be modest recovery

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A nearly 200 pips drop from the high was the main highlight of this week for the pair even though it recovered some of the losses but still closed with nearly 0.5% loss. Price might be stretched as there was one sided movement to the top from the lows of 101 to highs of 118 in a nearly 1700 pips in a very short period of time. But if the Trump goofs then there would be hard sell of USD assets

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