Fresh Forex forecast

[Volkov Yuriy]

Gold, Silver, Oil Weekly Analysis

Gold Weekly Review

Weekly Review:

For the past three weeks Gold has traded short following a bounce from a the weekly resistant level 117735. Following the previous week's downward movements, we are very reluctant to go long, however, the size of the previous week's red candle indicate that, although we are headed short, the downward movement may be short lived probably only up to lower support trend line. Any clear movements below this trend line will signal further downward movements to the lower side. We will however be looking for long positions along this supportive trend line.

Trade Recommendations:

If you haven't sold gold already, wait and sell below 1064.77 but with out targets at 1041.33, and the next target at the support trend line.

Silver Weekly Review

Weekly Review:

Since Silver bounced of from a resistive trend line at 16.038, the commodity has continually headed short, The commodity even ended up closing below a very significant support level 14.33. Following this downward movements, we are very reluctant to go long, instead we will remain short but with an ultimate stop at the lower supportive trend line. Any movements below this support trend line will signal further movements to the lower side.

Downward movements in other commodities such as Gold, will signal similar downward movements in silver. These commodities are positively correlated are thus expected to follow similar price movements.

Trade Recommedations:

Remain short in the silver markets but with an ultimate stop at the lower supportive trend line. Any clear movements will signal further movements to the lower side.

Oil weekly Review

Weekly Review:

For the past six weeks, after oil bounced off from a key weekly resistant 49.64, the commodity has continued short and is currently trading along a very significant support level 40.41. Following the massive downward movements witnessed during the previous week, we are very reluctant to execute long positions. However, we will be keen to look for further short positions below 36.77. This downward movements is highly anticipated since since other commodities such as Gold has been short for almost three weeks, meaning as long as gold continues short, oil and other commodities may as well be headed short. Gold, Silver, and oil appear to have positive correlation.

In an event that bullish candles appear above 40.41, then we will be looking for potential buy positions. this would only mean the demand has began to outdo supply of the commodity.

Trade Recommendation:

Remain short but only up to 36.77, any clear movements below this level will signal further movements to the lower side.

Check the website for more information: https://freshforex.com/analitics/fresh-forecast/forex-correlation-and-Elliott-wave-analysis/week_1044.html

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[Volkov Yuriy]

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[Volkov Yuriy]

EURUSD Elliot Waves Analysis For 26 May 2016

26 May 2016, EUR/USD

Wave Analysis:

EUR/USD is currently trading with a strong bullish bias. Yesterday, the pair made a marginal higher high and even broke above 1.1166. Following this breakout, we expect further momentum to the upper side but should not close above 1.12177. This view remains valid as long as the pair trades above 1.1166, a clear breakout below 1.1166 and also below 1.1138 will lead to an acceleration to the lower side. This pair should be traded alongside EUR/CHF, GBP/USD, and AUD/USD. These pairs have a strong positive correlation of up to +0.85 and will likely have a similar price action during this week.

Trade Recommendations:

Wait for minor downward pullbacks towards 1.1166, then go long with your target at 1.12177. Sell positions are only ideal below 1.1138 with you ideal target at 1.1099.

Check the website for more information: https://freshforex.com/analitics/fresh-forecast/forex-correlation-and-Elliott-wave-analysis/issue_77660.html

 

[Josheb Fredy]

AUD/USD is trying to pull up, but the pressure seems to be just too much. We can see SAR showing the trend to be shifted, but there is enough pressure and events lined up to tell us that this might not exactly be the scenario.

 

[Josheb Fredy]

EUR/USD went towards 1.11 during the week, but pulled up again now back to 1.12 and we think this might continue throughout the last day today and even throughout the next month which is June.

 

[Josheb Fredy]

GBP/USD has been going strong in bullish trend, but there is some pull back during past few days yet situation seems enough to tell us about strong bullish push which most likely to continue unless there is any fundamental changes.

[Volkov Yuriy]

EURUSD Elliot Waves Analysis For 3 June 2016

03 June 2016, EUR/USD

 

 

Wave Analysis

EUR/USD is currently trading with a slight bullish bias. Yesterday, wave (5) ended a bit earlier than expected and even closed below our target resistance level 1.12177, before heading massively short. Following the break below 1.1160, we expect the current upward rally to be a mere corrective upward rally and should not close above 1.1166, a break above this level may lead to an upward rally towards 1.1192 but should not close above 1.12177. Ideally, this pair is in an overall downward trend and may accelerate towards 1.1104 upon rebounding from the zone 1.1160-1.1166. This pair should be traded alongside Gold, EUR/GBP, and Silver. These commodities and Currencies have a strong positive correlation of up to +0.90 and will have a similar price action during this intraday.

Trade Recommendations:

If you are not short already, wait for the current upward rally to go short with your ideal target at 1.11045. Buy positions are only ideal if the current pullback close above 1.1166. If the latter is the case, then buy the pair with your targets at 1.1192 and 1.1217.
Check the website for more information: https://freshforex.com/analitics/fresh-forecast/forex-correlation-and-Elliott-wave-analysis/issue_81681.html

[Josheb Fredy]

EUR/USD will resume this week from1.1250 and will try to regain the lost grounds and should challenge 1.14 levels fairly soon ahead of FOMC meeting, but we still feel there isn’t anything clear as per trend, so it’s wait and watch till FOMC meeting.

[Josheb Fredy]

GBP/USD went crazy this week after uncertainty over a potential exit from European Union which resulted in massive pressure towards selling and that got the pair sliding to nearly 350-400 pips, we can expect similar scenario over next 2 weeks till June 23.

 

[Josheb Fredy]

EUR/JPY was felt to 120 this week and closed at around 120.35, but there is a lot of potential to see it riding down to 115 by end of the year, but for now we can expect some sort of recovery and might be back challenging 123 levels, so it’s wait and watch game.

 

[Volkov Yuriy]

Daily Forex market review 30 June 2016

 

 

EUR/USD (Euro/dollar pair)

US report on private consumption for May indicates acceleration of economic growth in the second quarter, which is positive for US dollar.

- ADX on the daily and 4-hour charts indicates a flat, on the hourly chart it is nearing the downtrend zone.

- RSI on the daily, 4-hour charts and the hourly chart indicates a flat.

- We should open Sell positions at 1.1140 (one eleven forty) and 1.1180 (one eleven eighty) (area of the upper Bollinger band on the hourly chart). As for Take profit orders, we should set them at 1.1060 (one ten sixty) (area of the lower border on the Bollinger bands indicator on the hourly chart).

GBP/USD (Pound /dollar)

- In credit markets, yield of the 10-years' UK government bonds has dropped against their counterparts from the USA and Germany, which makes investments in British assets less attractive. The bond market still conveys that sales of the pound are not over yet.

- ADX on the daily and 4-hour charts indicates a flat, on the hourly chart it is nearing the downtrend zone.

- RSI on the daily, 4-hour charts and the hourly chart indicates a flat.

- We should open Sell positions at 1.3480 (one thirty four eighty) and 1.3530 (one thirty five thirty) (area of the upper Bollinger band on the hourly chart) As for Take profit orders, we should set them at 1.3350 (one thirty three fifty) (area of the lower Bollinger band indicator on the hourly chart).

USD /JPY (Dollar/Japanese Yen)

- Despite a strong growth of stock indices since the beginning of the trading week (for example, Nikkei 225 rose by 4.11% (four dot eleven per cent) and the Euro Stoxx 50 by 2.02% - two dot zero two per cent), the pair has completely ignored this positive background and demonstrated a modest growth by  0,3% (zero fot three per cent) . This indicates a large number of sellers on the market.

- ADX on the daily chart indicates a strong downtrend; whereas on the 4-hour chart and hourly charts it indicates a flat.

- RSI on the daily, 4-hour charts and the hourly chart indicates a flat.

- We should open Sell positions at 102.90  (one hundred and two dot ninety) and 103.30  (one hundred and three dot thirty) (area the upper Bollinger band on the hourly chart). Open Take profit orders at 101.50  (one hundred and one dot fifty) (area of the lower border Bollinger band on the 4-hour chart).

 

More information

[Volkov Yuriy]

Daily Forex market review 05 July 2016

 

 

EUR/USD (Euro/dollar pair)

- on Monday the Italian government said that is not going to solve problems of credit institutions at the expense of state. Problems in Italian banks (and not only they alone) and a lot of investors began to sell banks' shares in a hurry, which is negative for the euro.

- ADX on the daily chart shows the flat; whereas on the hourly chart it shows the downtrend.

- RSI is out of the oversoldness area and allows us holding Sell trades.

- Recommendation: We should open Sell positions from 1.1140 (one eleven forty) and 1.1170 (one eleven seventy) (area of the middle and upper Bollinger bands, respectively). Set take profit at 1.1097 (one ten ninety seven) (a strong support).

GBP/USD (Pound /dollar)

- PMI index of the UK construction sector in June fell to its lowest level since October 2009 (two thousand and nine). In our opinion, this is just the beginning. Further we will receive an entire portion of weak macroeconomic statistics, cut of the rate by the Bank of England, increase of the QE (Quantitative Easing) package and decline of the pound to new multi-years Lows.

- ADX on the daily chart shows the flat; the hourly chart shows the downtrend.

- RSI on the hourly chart is in the oversoldness area, signaling a possible upward correction.

- Recommendation: We should open Sell positions from 1.3260 (one thirty two sixty) and 1.3305 (one thirty three zero five) (area of the middle and upper Bollinger bands, respectively). Set take profit at 1,3119 (one thirty one nineteen) (a strong support)

USD/JPY (Dollar/Japanese Yen

- "Risk appetite" has dropped again, which plays into the hands of bears. Once again, dark clouds are above the European banking sector: the Italian government refused to provide banks with additional liquidity. The management of Deutsche Bank does not know what to do with bad assets. Very often, crises begins with the banking sector. In 2008, it were the US banks, now, 8 years later, apparently, it will be the European financial institutions.

- ADX on the daily chart shows the flat; whereas on the 4-hour and hourly charts it shows the downtrend chart.

- RSI hourly chart has formed a divergence in the oversoldness zone, indicating the upward correction.

- Recommendation: We should open Sell positions from 102.30  (one hundred and two dot thirty) and 102.65  (one hundred and two  dot sixty five) (the area of the middle Bollinger band). Set take profit at 100,82 (one hundred sharply dot eighty two (a strong support)

 

Watch video forecast

[Volkov Yuriy]

Daily Forex market review 13 July 2016

 

 

EUR/USD (Euro/dollar pair)

 

- In credit markets, yield of the 10-years' German government bonds is declining as compared to US and UK bonds. It makes investment in European assets more attractive.

- ADX on the daily and hourly charts shows the flat.

- RSI on the daily and hourly charts shows the flat, too.

- Recommendation: trade inside the flat 1,1010 -1,1110 (one ten ten – one eleven ten) (the bottom Bollinger band on the hourly chart).

GBP/USD (Pound/dollar)

- On credit markets, yield of the 10-years' UK government bonds is declining as compared to US and German bonds. It makes investment in British assets less attractive. It is impossible to ignore the press releases of many UK banks stating that on Thursday the Bank of England will make a step ahead and lower rate by 0.5% (zero dot five per cent).

- ADX on the daily and hourly charts shows the flat.

- RSI on the 4-hours and hourly charts is overbought and has formed a divergence,  it is the downtrend.

- Recommendation:We should open Sell positions from  1.3315 (one thirty three fifteen) and 1.3355 (one thirty three fifty five) (area of the upper Bollinger band on the hourly chart) and take profit at 1,3235 (one thirty two thirty five) (area of the bottom Bollinger band on the hourly chart).

USD/JPY (Dollar/Japanese Yen)

- Stock markets are optimistic: US S&P500 index is storming new Highs, which contributes to growth of the currency pair. However, there is one factor which casts doubt on future growth of the stock markets - it is though moderate, but growing fear index VIX S&P500. This index is growing for the second day in a row, that signalsabout the downward correction.

- ADX on the daily and hourly charts shows the flat.

- RSI on the daily and hourly charts shows the flat, too.

- Recommendation: trade inside the flat 103,50  (one hundred and three dot fifty) -105,00  (one hundred and five sharply) (the range of Bollinger bands on the hourly chart).

Watch video analitics

 

[Josheb Fredy]

EUR/USD has moved above 1.11 and is sitting near 1.1126 level, but the steam isn’t there and that indicates we might again go down, it could be good chance to go for short, but it should be with very controlled lot size given there is no real trend as yet.

[Josheb Fredy]

GBP/USD seems to have kicked in really bullish trend over the last couple of days due to many events occurring, we can also see there is another event today, so it’s good choice to make entry below 1.35, but do it at your own risk!

[Volkov Yuriy]

Currency market review for July twenty seven

EUR/USD (Euro/dollar pair) 

- The positive report on durable goods orders in the US will support the dollar. Acceleratiion of economic growth allows to expect moderately positive comments of the Fed Reserve, which is also positive for US dollar.

Both indicators - ADX and RSI on the daily, 4-hours and hourly charts - show the flat.

Today, there is the flat range 1.0975 -1.1010  (one zero nine seventy five - one ten ten) (which corresponds to Bollinger envelope on the hourly chart)

- Recommendation: We should open Sell trades from 1.1015 (one ten fifteen), and take profit at 1,0975 (one zero nine seventy five)

The next pair - GBP/USD (Pound/dollar)

- Correction on the market of black gold may support the British currency in the first half of the day. The day before, the United States have once again encouraged investors with positive data on consumer confidence and new house sales. Thus, we wintess a steady economic growth, which usually provides US dollar with support .

 Both indicators - ADX and RSI on the daily, 4-hours and hourly charts - show the flat.

Today, there is the flat range 1.3090 -1.3160 (one thirty ninety - one thirty one sixty) (which corresponds to Bollinger envelope on the hourly chart)

- Recommendation: We should open Sell trades from 1.3165 (one thirty one sixty five), and take profit at 1,3090 (one thirty ninety).

And finally, USD/JPY (Dollar/Japanese Yen)

- US Federal Reserve may provide a moderately positive assessment of outlook of the US economy. That will boost yield of treasuries and thus will support US dollar.

- ADX Indicator on the daily and hourly charts shows the uptrend

RSI on the daily, 4-hours and hourly charts shows the flat.

- Recommendation: We should open Buy trades from 105.40 (one hundred and five dot forty) and 104.80 (one hundred and four dot eighty). We should take profit at 105,80 (one hundred and five dot eighty) (area of the upper Bollinger band on the hourly chart).