Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX

acfx · September 17, 2013

Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX 09/18/2013

Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 18th September 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

EURUSD is this morning trading unchanged from the open after yesterdays up day.
EURUSD continues to trade above Monday mornings opening upside gap and the moving averages have just crossed positively. This positive price activity is in line with the uptrend that is found on the weekly time frame. We are currently monitoring the possibility that EURUSD either trades up to and breaches the prior swing high or attempts to print a higher low prior to trading higher.

However as the swing bias is still negative we are monitoring a potential move to the area of the prior swing low.

In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias has changed to negative.

The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias:
1. The swing bias is negative.
2. The price action is trading at moving average resistance which could be viewed as over bought.
3. The price action is trading within Fibonacci resistance.
4. The RSI is showing signs of negative divergence.

Alternative counter trend bullish factors:
1. The weekly time frame has a positive swing bias.
2. The averages have crossed positively.
3. The price action has breached trend line resistance.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down retracements into resistance could be viewed as selling opportunities

Scenario 2
Alternatively if EURUSD can breach Fibonacci resistance there is a possibility that the move continues to the previous swing high.

Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 18th September 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

GBPUSD is this morning trading higher from the open after yesterdays up day.

GBPSD continues to trade above Mondays opening upside gap and 1.5825 support level.

We are monitoring the price action for continued positive momentum and a potential move to trend line resistance. However as the price action is looking extended then the averages a corrective down to sideways move is a possibility.

In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias is positive.

The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias:
1. The swing bias has turned positive.
2. The price action has bounced off positively layered averages.
3. The averages have crossed positively.
4. The RSI is confirming the move.
5. The weekly time frame is in gear with the daily time frame.

Alternative counter trend bearish factors:
1. GBPUSD is trading within Fibonacci resistance.
2. The price action is extended from the averages.
3. The price action is approaching trend line resistance.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities.

Scenario 2
Alternatively as the price action is extended from the averages short scalping opportunities could potentially become available.

Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 18th September 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

USDCHF is this morning trading unchanged from the open after yesterdays down day

USDCHF has made a weak attempt to fill its downside gap and is finding some initial resistance at the 34 period moving averages. If this resistance can be breached there is a possibility that USDCHF bounces off Fibonacci support and trade in the direction of the prior swing high.

However a breach of the 0.9200 support area could see USDCHF trade towards the prior swing low.

In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias has changed to positive.

The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias:
1. The swing bias is positive.
2. The RSI is in gear with the move.
3. The averages are positively layered.

Alternative counter trend bearish factors:
1. The weekly time frame continues to have a negative bias.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up corrective pullbacks could possibly offer buying opportunities.

Scenario 2
Alternatively as the 34 period moving averages as been breached could now see USDCHF move in the direction of the prior swing low.

Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 18th September 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

USDJPY is this morning higher from the open after yesterdays up day.

USDJPY has filled its downside gap following the printing of a bullish hammer candle.
We are monitoring the price action to see if support can hold prior to a retest of the 100 level.

However a breach of the 34 period moving averages could see USDJPY trading down towards the prior swing low.

In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias is positive.

The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias:
1. The swing bias positive.
2. The price action has printed a higher low.
3. The price action has breached the upper trend line of a converging triangle.
4. The moving averages have crossed positively.
5. The price action is trading into the moving averages which could be viewed as oversold.
6. The RSI is confirming the move.

Alternative counter trend bearish factors:
1. The 100 level is offering resistance.
2. Fibonacci resistance could offer down side pressure.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities

Scenario 2
Alternatively a breach of the 34 period moving averages could offer a shorting opportunity to the prior swing low.

Daily Technical Analysis for Gold as at 18th September 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Gold is this morning trading lower from the open after yesterdays down day.

Gold has experienced a broad downside correction and is now breaching the bottom of Fibonacci support. We are monitoring to see if the price action can hold above the last swing low prior to a potential move to the swing high.

However if the correction gains momentum there is a possibility that Gold attempts to breach the prior pivot swing low which will effectively change the trend to short.

In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias has reversed to positive.

The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias:
1. The swing bias is positive.
2. The price action has printed a higher low.
3. The moving averages are layered positively.
4. The price action is trading above the 1322 support level.
5. The RSI is in gear with the move.
6. The price action has entered Fibonacci support.

Alternative counter trend bearish factors:
1. The weekly time frame continues to point down.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up corrective sideways to down movements could potentially be viewed as buying opportunities.

Scenario 2
Alternatively the breach of the 34 moving averages could see Gold trade down to the 1300 area.

Daily Technical Analysis for Oil (WTI) as at 18th September 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Oil is this morning trading higher from the open after yesterdays down day.
Oil continues to trade within the 104.80 to 110.70 range. The price action within this range has been very choppy. Although there is a prominent RSI negative divergence, the move down thus far has been weak. Furthermore the weak correction corresponds with a positive hidden divergence of the RSI which could potentially indicates that the uptrend will stay intact.

As the swing bias remains positive for the time being we are monitoring a potential bounce off Fibonacci support and a move to the prior swing high. Furthermore moving average support has been breached which could be taken as a sign that Oil is oversold. However if the price action can hold beneath the averages for a sustained period of time will focus more of our attention to the short side. A breach of the prior swing low will reverse the trend to short.

In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias is positive.

The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias:
1. The swing bias is positive.
2. Oil is trading beneath the averages which could be a sign that this instrument is oversold.
3. The prior down spike has been reversed.
4. The averages are layered positively.
5. The price action is trading above the large monthly converging triangle.

Alternative counter trend bearish factors:
1. The weekly RSI diverging negatively.
2. Moving average support has been breached.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up retracements to support areas could possibly be viewed as buying opportunities.

Scenario 2
Alternatively a breach of current support could see Oil trade down to the previous swing low.

acfx · September 23, 2013

Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX 09/23/2013

Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 23rd September 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

EURUSD continues to trade within a tight trading range and at the highs of the large spike up. Furthermore there has not to date been a broad correction down to key support value areas such as the prior pivot high, moving average or trend line support. We are therefore monitoring the price for signs of possible break out or break downs from this level during the opening of the London session.

Further positivity for EURUSD will be in line with the change of the daily trend to up, the bullish weekly time frame the moving averages crossing positively and the break of the multiyear downward sloping trend line.

As posted previously we are currently monitoring the possibility of a move to 1.3710 being a previous weekly pivot high. However as the price action is extended from the averages there is potential for EURUSD to experience a corrective down to sideways movement. As the weekly RSI has yet to show signs of confirming this move the possibility of some kind of correction should not be ruled out.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities. However due to the strength of the move, the possibility of EURUSD continuing to break higher until it reaches the 1.3700 area should not be discounted with these moves probably following minor intraday corrections which could be identified off lower time frame charts.

Scenario 2
Alternatively as EURUSD has experienced a strong move higher, bargain hunters may view areas such as the previous swing high, broken trend line resistance and trend line support as areas to add positions. If this scenario plays out there is potential for shorts to be taken with a view of hitting these support targets. However it must be stressed that fighting such a dominant up trend can be a danger to your wealth.

Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 23rd September 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

GBPUSD has traded down around 180 pips from the highs. This correction is to be expected after such a stellar up move .The move down does appear large. However in relative terms when compared to the proceeding uptrend is actually minor.

The preferred retracement levels for bargain hunters would probably be to key support levels such as the 8 period moving averages, trend line support or previous pivot high. Of these support levels only the 8 period moving averages has come under threat with the price action approaching but not reaching this level.

This morningâ€™s price action is trading within a tight opening range and is encompassed by Fridayâ€™s price range. We are monitoring the possibility of a London session upside breakout.

A continued up move should put in focus the possibility of GBPUSD threatening to breach a multiyear down trend line and the 1.6400 area which coincides with a prior weekly pivot high. With the RSI and the moving averages confirming the up move and weekly time frame being in gear with the daily time frame shorting such a strong up trend can be dangerous. However with GBPUSD has yet to experience a good retracement and there is a possibility of further corrective down to sideways price action.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities. These retracements would be ideally taken off an obvious corrective pull back to the 8 period moving averages, trend line support or previous pivot high. However there is a possibility that pull backs are limited and GBPUSD continues to break higher. In this case pullbacks and break outs could potentially be identified off lower time frames.

Scenario 2
Alternatively as the price action is extended from the averages short scalping opportunities could potentially become available with targets being the value areas where longs will add positions such as the 8 period moving averages, trend line support or previous pivot high.

Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 23rd September 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Down
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

USDCHF has continued to trade lower albeit at a much slower pace. The market is now trading within a very tight range near to the lows of this down move. We are monitoring the London open for a possible indication of which way the market will break.

To recap on the bigger picture the price action breached trend line support, horizontal support and more importantly the prior swing low which effectively changes the trend to down. The RSI is in gear with this downtrend and this is further confirmed by the averages and weekly time frame. The next support level we are monitoring is the 0.9020 area.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down corrective pullbacks could possibly offer selling opportunities with retracements back to the averages, the prior pivot low and broken support being value areas where shorts could potentially be added. However there is a possibility of USDCHF continuing to break lower following relatively minor corrective pullbacks which can be identified off intraday charts.

Scenario 2
Alternatively one could potentially take scalp longs up to the previously mentioned value areas.

Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 23rd September 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

USDJPY experienced a minor 70 pip downward correction following the strong bounce off the point of intersection of the converging triangle trend lines.

Across the markets the USD is showing signs of weakness, especially against the majors such as GBPUSD and EURUSD. In the case of EURUSD and USDCHF this weakness in the USD has effectively changed the trends.

However, USDJPY has stubbornly put up a resistance and maintained an uptrend. With the RSI confirming the move and the averages and weekly time frame pointing positive, we are monitoring the strength of this bounce. If the price action can hold above the triangle and trade through last Mondayâ€™s opening downside gap there is potential that USDJPY will retest the 100 level.

If USDJPY however can trade beneath the converging triangle pattern a move and breach of the prior swing low comes into focus. A breach of the prior swing low will effectively change the swing trend to negative. This scenario is currently being highlighted by downside pressure being exerted by Fibonacci resistance.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities

Scenario 2
Alternatively a move beneath the converging triangle opens up a possibility of shorting USDJPY down to the prior swing low.

Daily Technical Analysis for Gold as at 23rd September 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

The bounce off Fibonacci and the 1320 support area has thus far failed to follow through with the price action trading back down deep into the Fibonacci area. The move down however has not retested the 1320 level.

In terms of the bigger picture the daily trend is positive and the up move is in line with the hidden weekly divergence in the RSI. However the weekly time frame does continue to have a bearish outlook and the daily averages are layered negatively.

We are currently monitoring a potential move to the prior swing pivot high. However a failure to follow through could see Gold breach the prior swing low and effectively changing the trend to negative.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up corrective sideways to down movements could potentially be viewed as buying opportunities.

Scenario 2
Alternatively the breach of the 1320 support area could see Gold trade down to the prior pivot low.

Daily Technical Analysis for Oil (WTI) as at 23rd September 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Oil on Friday broke the bottom off the 104.80 to 110.70 range. The downside correction would appear to be gathering momentum with the averages also turning negative however a further move south will need to overcome support offered by the Fibonacci support area and the positive hidden divergence of the weekly RSI.

As the swing bias remains positive we are monitoring the bounce off Fibonacci support and a potential move to the prior swing high.

A failure to follow through with a strong up move could however see Oil trade down the previous pivot low which would effectively change the trend to short.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up retracements to support areas could possibly be viewed as buying opportunities.

Scenario 2
Alternatively a breach of current support could see Oil trade down to the previous swing low.

acfx · September 24, 2013

Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX 09/24/2013

Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 24th September 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Yesterday EURUSD broke down from the tight two day trading range however this downside momentum has failed to follow through in this morning session. Furthermore there has not to date been a broad correction down to key support value areas such as the prior pivot high, moving average or trend line support. We are therefore monitoring the price for signs of possible break out or break downs from this level during the opening of the London session.

Further positivity for EURUSD will be in line with the change of the daily trend to up, the bullish weekly time frame the moving averages crossing positively and the break of the multiyear downward sloping trend line.

As posted previously we are currently monitoring the possibility of a move to 1.3710 being a previous weekly pivot high. However as the price action is extended from the averages there is potential for EURUSD to experience a corrective down to sideways movement. As the weekly RSI has yet to show signs of confirming this move the possibility of some kind of correction should not be ruled out.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities. However due to the strength of the move, the possibility of EURUSD continuing to break higher until it reaches the 1.3700 area should not be discounted with these moves probably following minor intraday corrections which could be identified off lower time frame charts.

Scenario 2
Alternatively as EURUSD has experienced a strong move higher, bargain hunters may view areas such as the previous swing high, broken trend line resistance and trend line support as areas to add positions. If this scenario plays out there is potential for shorts to be taken with a view of hitting these support targets. However it must be stressed that fighting such a dominant up trend can be a danger to your wealth.

Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 24th September 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Yesterday GBPUSD traded and closed higher following its 180 pips correction from its highs. The pre London open has however thus far been quiet with no signs yet of following through with higher market prices.

The correction although strong did not reach the preferred retracement levels for bargain hunters which are key support levels such as the 8 period moving averages, trend line support or previous pivot high. Of these support levels only the 8 period moving averages has come under threat with the price action approaching but not reaching this level.

As the price action continues to trade within a tight opening range and is encompassed by Fridayâ€™s price range we are monitoring the possibility of a London session upside breakout.

A continued up move should put in focus the possibility of GBPUSD threatening to breach a multiyear down trend line and the 1.6400 area which coincides with a prior weekly pivot high. With the RSI and the moving averages confirming the up move and weekly time frame being in gear with the daily time frame shorting such a strong up trend can be dangerous. However with GBPUSD has yet to experience a good retracement and there is a possibility of further corrective down to sideways price action.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities. These retracements would be ideally taken off an obvious corrective pull back to the 8 period moving averages, trend line support or previous pivot high. However there is a possibility that pull backs are limited and GBPUSD continues to break higher. In this case pullbacks and break outs could potentially be identified off lower time frames.

Scenario 2
Alternatively as the price action is extended from the averages short scalping opportunities could potentially become available with targets being the value areas where longs will add positions such as the 8 period moving averages, trend line support or previous pivot high.

Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 24th September 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Down
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Yesterday USDCHF continued to trade lower only for buyers to intervene support the market. USDCHF eventually closed higher. This morningâ€™s price action has been muted with the market probably waiting for London to open before deciding on which direction to take.

To recap on the bigger picture the price action breached trend line support, horizontal support and more importantly the prior swing low which effectively changes the trend to down. The RSI is in gear with this downtrend and this is further confirmed by the averages and weekly time frame. The next support level we are monitoring is the 0.9020 area.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down corrective pullbacks could possibly offer selling opportunities with retracements back to the averages, the prior pivot low and broken support being value areas where shorts could potentially be added. However there is a possibility of USDCHF continuing to break lower following relatively minor corrective pullbacks which can be identified off intraday charts.

Scenario 2
Alternatively one could potentially take scalp longs up to the previously mentioned value areas.

Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 24th September 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Yesterday USDJPY continued to experience a downside correction following the bounce off the point of intersection of the converging triangle trend lines. The downside momentum has not as yet followed through into the European session with the price action trading higher.

As USDJPY is trading above the broken converging triangle and with the RSI confirming the move and the averages and weekly time frame pointing positive, we are monitoring the strength of this bounce. If the price action can hold above the triangle and trade through last Mondayâ€™s opening downside gap there is potential that USDJPY will retest the 100 level.

If USDJPY however can trade beneath the converging triangle pattern a move and breach of the prior swing low comes into focus. A breach of the prior swing low will effectively change the swing trend to negative. This scenario is currently being highlighted by downside pressure being exerted by Fibonacci resistance.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities

Scenario 2
Alternatively a move beneath the converging triangle opens up a possibility of shorting USDJPY down to the prior swing low.

Daily Technical Analysis for Gold as at 24th September 2013,

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

The bounce off Fibonacci and the 1320 support area has thus far failed to follow through with the price action trading back down deep into the Fibonacci area. The move down however has not retested the 1320 level.

In terms of the bigger picture the daily trend is positive and the up move is in line with the hidden weekly divergence in the RSI. However the weekly time frame does continue to have a bearish outlook and the daily averages are layered negatively.

We are currently monitoring a potential move to the prior swing pivot high. However a failure to follow through could see Gold breach the prior swing low and effectively changing the trend to negative.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up corrective sideways to down movements could potentially be viewed as buying opportunities.

Scenario 2
Alternatively the breach of the 1320 support area could see Gold trade down to the prior pivot low.

Daily Technical Analysis for Oil (WTI) as at 24th September 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Yesterday Oil continued to trade lower and in the process traded through the previous swing low pivot which effectively changed the trend to down. Both Fibonacci support and the positive hidden RSI divergence have been negated and the moving averages have crossed negatively.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down retracements up to resistance such as the averages areas could possibly be viewed as selling opportunities. However there is a possibility that Oil breaks lower during the London session and an attempt is made to reach trend line support. Such break downs can potentially be identified off lower time frame charts.

Scenario 2
Alternatively one could possibly take scalp longs up to the averages.

acfx · September 24, 2013

Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX 09/25/2013

Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 25th September 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

This morning EURUSD has finally traded down to our first value area which is the 8 period moving averages. We are therefore monitoring the price action for signs of support coming in at these levels prior to a resumption of the uptrend.

Further positivity for EURUSD will be in line with the change of the daily trend to up, the bullish weekly time frame the moving averages crossing positively and the break of the multiyear downward sloping trend line.

As posted previously we are currently monitoring the possibility of a move to 1.3710 being a previous weekly pivot high. However as the price action is extended from the averages there is potential for EURUSD to experience a corrective down to sideways movement. As the weekly RSI has yet to show signs of confirming this move the possibility of some kind of correction should not be ruled out.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities

Scenario 2
Alternatively a breach of the 8 period moving averages could see EURUSD trading down to the 34 period moving averages.

Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 25th September 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Yesterday GBPUSD traded down to the 8 period moving averages where support was found. In the process a bullish hammer candle was printed.

The touching of the 8 period moving averages has now pushed GBPUSD to the first value area. We are monitoring the price action at these levels for a possible up move to the previous swing high.

A continued up move should put in focus the possibility of GBPUSD threatening to breach a multiyear down trend line and the 1.6400 area which coincides with a prior weekly pivot high. With the RSI and the moving averages confirming the up move and weekly time frame being in gear with the daily time frame shorting such a strong up trend can be dangerous.

However with GBPUSD has yet to experience a good retracement and there is a possibility of further corrective down to sideways price action.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities. These retracements would be ideally taken off an obvious corrective pull back to the 8 period moving averages, trend line support or previous pivot high. However there is a possibility that pull backs are limited and GBPUSD continues to break higher. In this case pullbacks and break outs could potentially be identified off lower time frames.

Scenario 2
Alternatively a breach of the 8 period moving averages could see GBPUSD trade down to trend line support.

Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 25th September 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Down
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Yesterday USDCHF continues to bounce off the lows. We are monitoring a potential move to the 8 period moving averages.

To recap on the bigger picture the price action breached trend line support, horizontal support and more importantly the prior swing low which effectively changes the trend to down. The RSI is in gear with this downtrend and this is further confirmed by the averages and weekly time frame. The next support level we are monitoring is the 0.9020 area.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down corrective pullbacks could possibly offer selling opportunities with retracements back to the averages, the prior pivot low and broken support being value areas where shorts could potentially be added. However there is a possibility of USDCHF continuing to break lower following relatively minor corrective pullbacks which can be identified off intraday charts.

Scenario 2
Alternatively one could potentially take scalp longs up to the previously mentioned value areas.

Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 25th September 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

USDJPY continues to experience a downside correction following the bounce off the point of intersection of the converging triangle trend lines. This move lower however has yet to breach trend line support.

As USDJPY is trading above the broken converging triangle and with the RSI confirming the move and the averages and weekly time frame pointing positive, we are monitoring the strength of this bounce. If the price action can hold above the triangle and trade through last Mondayâ€™s opening downside gap there is potential that USDJPY will retest the 100 level.

If USDJPY however can trade beneath the converging triangle pattern a move and breach of the prior swing low comes into focus. A breach of the prior swing low will effectively change the swing trend to negative. This scenario is currently being highlighted by downside pressure being exerted by Fibonacci resistance.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities

Scenario 2
Alternatively a move beneath the converging triangle opens up a possibility of shorting USDJPY down to the prior swing low.

Daily Technical Analysis for Gold as at 25th September 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Yesterday Gold traded down to trend line support where buying came into the market and in the process the price action printed a bullish hammer. We are monitoring a possible move up to the 34 period moving averages.
The bounce off Fibonacci and the 1320 support area has thus far failed to follow through with the price action trading back down deep into the Fibonacci area. The move down however has not retested the 1320 level.

In terms of the bigger picture the daily trend is positive and the up move is in line with the hidden weekly divergence in the RSI. However the weekly time frame does continue to have a bearish outlook and the daily averages are layered negatively.

We are currently monitoring a potential move to the prior swing pivot high. However a failure to follow through could see Gold breach the prior swing low and effectively changing the trend to negative.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up corrective sideways to down movements could potentially be viewed as buying opportunities.

Scenario 2
Alternatively the breach of the 1320 support area could see Gold trade down to the prior pivot low.

Daily Technical Analysis for Oil (WTI) as at 25th September 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Yesterday Oil traded down to trend line support where buying came into the market and in the process the price action printed a bullish hammer. We are monitoring a possible move up to the 8 period moving averages.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down retracements up to resistance such as the averages areas could possibly be viewed as selling opportunities.

Scenario 2
Alternatively one could possibly take scalp longs up to the averages.

acfx · September 27, 2013

Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX 09/27/2013

Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 27th September 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

EURUSD continues to trade around our first value area which is the 8 period moving averages. We are therefore monitoring the price action for signs of support coming in at these levels prior to a resumption of the uptrend.

Further positivity for EURUSD will be in line with the change of the daily trend to up, the bullish weekly time frame the moving averages crossing positively and the break of the multiyear downward sloping trend line.

As posted previously we are currently monitoring the possibility of a move to 1.3710 being a previous weekly pivot high. However as the price action is extended from the averages there is potential for EURUSD to experience a corrective down to sideways movement. As the weekly RSI has yet to show signs of confirming this move the possibility of some kind of correction should not be ruled out.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities

Scenario 2
Alternatively a breach of the 8 period moving averages could see EURUSD trading down to the 34 period moving averages.

Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 27th September 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

GBPUSD continues to find support at the 8 period moving averages which is our first value area. We are monitoring the price action at these levels for a possible up move to the previous swing high.

A continued up move should put in focus the possibility of GBPUSD threatening to breach a multiyear down trend line and the 1.6400 area which coincides with a prior weekly pivot high. With the RSI and the moving averages confirming the up move and weekly time frame being in gear with the daily time frame shorting such a strong up trend can be dangerous.

However with GBPUSD has yet to experience a good retracement and there is a possibility of further corrective down to sideways price action.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities. These retracements would be ideally taken off an obvious corrective pull back to the 8 period moving averages, trend line support or previous pivot high. However there is a possibility that pull backs are limited and GBPUSD continues to break higher. In this case pullbacks and break outs could potentially be identified off lower time frames.

Scenario 2
Alternatively a breach of the 8 period moving averages could see GBPUSD trade down to trend line support.

Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 27th September 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Down
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

USDCHF has traded up to our first value area being the 8 period moving averages which is a potential shorting zone.

To recap on the bigger picture the price action breached trend line support, horizontal support and more importantly the prior swing low which effectively changes the trend to down. The RSI is in gear with this downtrend and this is further confirmed by the averages and weekly time frame. The next support level we are monitoring is the 0.9020 area.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down corrective pullbacks could possibly offer selling opportunities with retracements back to the averages, the prior pivot low and broken support being value areas where shorts could potentially be added. However there is a possibility of USDCHF continuing to break lower following relatively minor corrective pullbacks which can be identified off intraday charts.

Scenario 2
Alternatively one could potentially take scalp longs up to the previously mentioned value areas.

Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 27th September 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

USDJPY continues to above the intersection of the converging triangle trend lines.

As USDJPY is trading above the broken converging triangle and with the RSI confirming the move and the averages and weekly time frame pointing positive, we are monitoring the strength of this bounce. If the price action can hold above the triangle and trade through last Mondayâ€™s opening downside gap there is potential that USDJPY will retest the 100 level.

If USDJPY however can trade beneath the converging triangle pattern a move and breach of the prior swing low comes into focus. A breach of the prior swing low will effectively change the swing trend to negative. This scenario is currently being highlighted by downside pressure being exerted by Fibonacci resistance.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities

Scenario 2
Alternatively a move beneath the converging triangle opens up a possibility of shorting USDJPY down to the prior swing low.

Daily Technical Analysis for Gold as at 27th September 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Gold continues to trade in the Fibonacci support area. We are monitoring a possible move up to the 34 period moving averages.
The bounce off Fibonacci and the 1320 support area has thus far failed to follow through with the price action trading back down deep into the Fibonacci area. The move down however has not retested the 1320 level.

In terms of the bigger picture the daily trend is positive and the up move is in line with the hidden weekly divergence in the RSI. However the weekly time frame does continue to have a bearish outlook and the daily averages are layered negatively.

We are currently monitoring a potential move to the prior swing pivot high. However a failure to follow through could see Gold breach the prior swing low and effectively changing the trend to negative.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up corrective sideways to down movements could potentially be viewed as buying opportunities.

Scenario 2
Alternatively the breach of the 1320 support area could see Gold trade down to the prior pivot low.

Daily Technical Analysis for Oil (WTI) as at 25th September 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Oil continues to around trend line support which is a potential area for a bounce to take place. We are monitoring a possible move up to the 8 period moving averages.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down retracements up to resistance such as the averages areas could possibly be viewed as selling opportunities.

Scenario 2
Alternatively one could possibly take scalp longs up to the averages.

acfx · September 29, 2013

Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX 09/30/2013

Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 30th September 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Following the move that formed the higher high on the 19th September EURUSD has traded within a 110 pip range. As the price action has a positive swing bias we are monitoring if the move down to the 8 period moving averages value area will act as a trigger zone for longs to add positions prior to a move to the previous swing high. However for this to happen we would like to see EURUSD close and trade above this morningâ€™s downside opening gap.

As posted previously further positivity for EURUSD will be in line with the change of the daily trend to up, the bullish weekly time frame the moving averages crossing positively and the break of the multiyear downward sloping trend line. We are currently monitoring the possibility of a move to 1.3710 being a previous weekly pivot high. However as the weekly RSI has yet to show signs of confirming this move the possibility of some kind of correction should not be ruled out.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities

Scenario 2
Alternatively a breach of the 8 period moving averages could see EURUSD trading down to the 34 period moving averages.

Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 30th September 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

GBPUSD as predicted the 8 period moving averages gave support. This morning GBPUSD has traded above the 18th September high.

A continued up move should put in focus the possibility of GBPUSD threatening to breach a multiyear down trend line and the 1.6400 area which coincides with a prior weekly pivot high. With the RSI and the moving averages confirming the up move and weekly time frame being in gear with the daily time frame shorting such a strong up trend can be dangerous.

However with GBPUSD has yet to experience a good retracement and there is a possibility of further corrective down to sideways price action.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities. These retracements would be ideally taken off an obvious corrective pull back to the 8 period moving averages, trend line support or previous pivot high. However there is a possibility that pull backs are limited and GBPUSD continues to break higher. In this case pullbacks and break outs could potentially be identified off lower time frames.

Scenario 2
Alternatively a breach of the 8 period moving averages could see GBPUSD trade down to trend line support.

Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 30th September 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Down
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

On Friday morning it was identified that USDCHF had traded up to our first value area being the 8 period moving averages which was a potential shorting zone. This scenario played out at USDCHF traded down to the 0.9020 support area where buyers came into the market.

To recap on the bigger picture the price action breached trend line support, horizontal support and more importantly the prior swing low which effectively changes the trend to down. The RSI is in gear with this downtrend and this is further confirmed by the averages and weekly time frame. The next support level we are monitoring is the 0.9020 area.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down corrective pullbacks could possibly offer selling opportunities with retracements back to the averages, the prior pivot low and broken support being value areas where shorts could potentially be added. However there is a possibility of USDCHF continuing to break lower following relatively minor corrective pullbacks which can be identified off intraday charts.

Scenario 2
Alternatively one could potentially take scalp longs up to the previously mentioned value areas.

Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 30th September 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

This morning USDJPY opens with a downside gap and is trading at an intersection of the broken converging triangle. Although the swing bias remains positive this morningâ€™s gap and the Fibonacci resistance area could potentially be a catalyst for downside pressure. However a possible daily trend change to down maybe limited due to the strength of the uptrendâ€™s that can be found in both Monthly and Weekly time frames. A breach of the prior swing high will confirm the uptrend where as a breach of the prior swing low will change the daily trend to negative.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities

Scenario 2
Alternatively a move beneath the converging triangle opens up a possibility of shorting USDJPY down to the prior swing low.

Daily Technical Analysis for Gold as at 30th September 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Gold continues to trade in the Fibonacci support area. We are monitoring a possible move up to the 34 period moving averages.
The bounce off Fibonacci and the 1320 support area has thus far failed to follow through with the price action trading back down deep into the Fibonacci area. The move down however has not retested the 1320 level.

In terms of the bigger picture the daily trend is positive and the up move is in line with the hidden weekly divergence in the RSI. However the weekly time frame does continue to have a bearish outlook and the daily averages are layered negatively.

We are currently monitoring a potential move to the prior swing pivot high. However a failure to follow through could see Gold breach the prior swing low and effectively changing the trend to negative.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up corrective sideways to down movements could potentially be viewed as buying opportunities.

Scenario 2
Alternatively the breach of the 1320 support area could see Gold trade down to the prior pivot low.

Daily Technical Analysis for Oil (WTI) as at 30th September 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

This morning Oil opened with a downside gap and a breach of trend line support. This move happen following a rejection of the 8 period moving averages.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down retracements up to resistance such as the averages areas could possibly be viewed as selling opportunities.

Scenario 2
Alternatively one could possibly take scalp longs up to the averages.

acfx · October 2, 2013

Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX 10/02/2013

Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 2nd October 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Yesterday EURUSD traded substantially higher only for it to pair its gains and close near its open and just above the 8 period moving averages. This morning this average continues to offer some support and a potential value area for longs to be taken.

The pattern being formed is a rising wedge. A break down from this pattern could see EURUSD trade down to the 34 period moving averages. A break down would be in line with the weekly RSI which has yet to confirm the up move.

However with the swing bias continuing to point up on both daily and weekly time frames and the moving averages layered positively we are monitoring a possible move to 1.3710 being a previous weekly pivot high.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities

Scenario 2
Alternatively a breach of the 8 period moving averages could see EURUSD trading down to the 34 period moving averages.

Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 2nd October 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

GBPUSD continue its upward movement following the bounce off the 8 period moving averages. GBPUSD is now threatening to breach a multiyear down trend line and the 1.6400 area which coincides with a prior weekly pivot high. With the RSI and the moving averages confirming the up move and weekly time frame being in gear with the daily time frame shorting such a strong up trend can be dangerous.

However with GBPUSD now extended from the averages and trading into overhead resistance there is a possibility of a rejection of these level and a potential move back down to the averages.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities. These retracements would be ideally taken off an obvious corrective pull back to the 8 period moving averages, trend line support or previous pivot high. However there is a possibility that pull backs are limited and GBPUSD continues to break higher. In this case pullbacks and break outs could potentially be identified off lower time frames.

Scenario 2
Alternatively a rejection of resistance could see GBPUSD trade back down to the 8 period moving averages.

Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at October 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Down
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Yesterday USDCHF breached the 0.9020 area only for support to come into the market for this currency pair and in the process the price action printed a bullish hammer. This morning USDCHF continues to hold above the 0.9020 and is now touching the 8 period moving averages which is a potential value area where shorts could potentially be added.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down corrective pullbacks could possibly offer selling opportunities with retracements back to the averages, the prior pivot low and broken support being value areas where shorts could potentially be added. However there is a possibility of USDCHF continuing to break lower following relatively minor corrective pullbacks which can be identified off intraday charts.

Scenario 2
Alternatively one could potentially take scalp longs up to the previously mentioned value areas.

Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 2nd October 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments
Yesterday USDJPY traded up to the 8 period moving averages only for this pair to reject this level. This morning the negativity has increased as USDJPY trades down from both the averages and Fibonacci resistance.

All eyes are now on the 96.80 level which coincides with a prior swing low. A breach of this pivot will effectively change the trend to short on a swing basis.

However a possible daily trend change to down maybe limited due to the strength of the uptrendâ€™s that can be found in both Monthly and Weekly time frames with a breach of the prior swing high will confirm the uptrend.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities

Scenario 2
Alternatively a move beneath the converging triangle opens up a possibility of shorting USDJPY down to the prior swing low.

Daily Technical Analysis for Gold as at 2nd October 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Yesterday Gold breached the low of the 18th September pivot and in the process changed the trend on a swing basis to down. The move yesterday was large and exceeded the daily average range. For this reason and due to the price action being extended from the averages and the weekly RSI continuing to diverge positively we are monitoring Gold for signs of a corrective upward retracement.
However as the trend is now down and with the formation of a bearish head and shoulders pattern now forming the main focus for the time being would be for possible short set ups.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down corrective sideways to up movements could potentially be viewed as selling opportunities.

Scenario 2
Alternatively as the price action is extended from the averages there is potential for scalp longs back up to these averages.

Daily Technical Analysis for Oil (WTI) as at 2nd October 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Mondayâ€™s down move eventually formed a bullish hammer. With yesterdays price action trading within Mondayâ€™s range and todayâ€™s open being quiet and within this range we are monitoring the 101 area to if support can hold Oil around this level.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down retracements up to resistance such as the averages areas could possibly be viewed as selling opportunities.

Scenario 2
Alternatively one could possibly take scalp longs up to the averages.

acfx · October 3, 2013

Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX 10/03/2013

Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 3rd October 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Yesterday EURUSD bounced off the 8 period moving averages and traded substantially higher. This morning EURUSD has opened positively.

In terms of the daily trend the swing bias continues to be positive and this direction is being confirmed on the weekly time frame. Furthermore the averages layered positively and the RSI is in gear with the trend. We are monitoring a possible move to 1.3710 being a previous weekly pivot high.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities

Scenario 2
Alternatively as the price action is extended from the averages there is a possibility that EURUSD may experience a downward or sideways correction.

Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 3rd October 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

GBPUSD continue its upward movement following the bounce off the 8 period moving averages. GBPUSD is now threatening to breach a multiyear down trend line and the 1.6400 area which coincides with a prior weekly pivot high. With the RSI and the moving averages confirming the up move and weekly time frame being in gear with the daily time frame shorting such a strong up trend can be dangerous.

However with GBPUSD now extended from the averages and trading into overhead resistance there is a possibility of a rejection of these level and a potential move back down to the averages.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities. These retracements would be ideally taken off an obvious corrective pull back to the 8 period moving averages, trend line support or previous pivot high. However there is a possibility that pull backs are limited and GBPUSD continues to break higher. In this case pullbacks and break outs could potentially be identified off lower time frames.

Scenario 2
Alternatively a rejection of resistance could see GBPUSD trade back down to the 8 period moving averages.

Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 3rd October 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Down
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Yesterday USDCHF breached the 0.9020 area only for support to come into the market for this currency pair and in the process the price action printed a bullish hammer. This morning USDCHF continues to hold above the 0.9020 and is now touching the 8 period moving averages which is a potential value area where shorts could potentially be added.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down corrective pullbacks could possibly offer selling opportunities with retracements back to the averages, the prior pivot low and broken support being value areas where shorts could potentially be added. However there is a possibility of USDCHF continuing to break lower following relatively minor corrective pullbacks which can be identified off intraday charts.

Scenario 2
Alternatively one could potentially take scalp longs up to the previously mentioned value areas.

Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 3rd October 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

USDJPY traded up to the 8 period moving averages only for this pair to reject this level. Yesterday the move down gained momentum however this morning USDJPY has experienced a bounce which would be in line with a correction due to the price action being extended from the averages.

All eyes are now on the 96.80 level which coincides with a prior swing low. A breach of this pivot will effectively change the trend to short on a swing basis.

However a possible daily trend change to down maybe limited due to the strength of the uptrendâ€™s that can be found in both Monthly and Weekly time frames.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities

Scenario 2
Alternatively a move beneath the converging triangle opens up a possibility of shorting USDJPY down to the prior swing low.

Daily Technical Analysis for Gold as at 3rd October 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Having breached the low of the 18th September pivot the daily trend in Gold has turned negative on a swing bases. The move down was large and exceeded the daily average range. That yesterday Gold experience a large bounce is in line with a corrective move that is in line with the weekly RSI positive divergence and the price action being extended from the averages.
The correction however may have been completed as Gold has now traded up to the 8 period moving averages which is a potential value area for shorts to be added. Furthermore the formation of a bearish head and shoulders pattern that is now forming continues the focus for the time on possible short set ups.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down corrective sideways to up movements could potentially be viewed as selling opportunities.

Scenario 2
Alternatively a breach of the 8 period moving averages could see Gold trade up to the 34 period moving averages.

Daily Technical Analysis for Oil (WTI) as at 2nd October 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Mondayâ€™s down move eventually formed a bullish hammer. With yesterdays price action trading within Mondayâ€™s range and todayâ€™s open being quiet and within this range we are monitoring the 101 area to if support can hold Oil around this level.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down retracements up to resistance such as the averages areas could possibly be viewed as selling opportunities.

Scenario 2
Alternatively one could possibly take scalp longs up to the averages.

acfx · October 4, 2013

Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX 10/04/2013

Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 4th October 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments
Yesterday EURUSD continued to trade higher following itâ€™s bounced off the 8 period moving averages. This morning EURUSD has opened quietly. We are awaiting the London open for an indication of short term directional momentum.

In terms of the daily trend the swing bias continues to be positive and this direction is being confirmed on the weekly time frame. Furthermore the averages layered positively and the RSI is in gear with the trend. We are monitoring a possible move to 1.3710 being a previous weekly pivot high.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities

Scenario 2
Alternatively as the price action is extended from the averages there is a possibility that EURUSD may experience a downward or sideways correction.

Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 4th October 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Yesterday GBPUSD traded down off multiyear trend line resistance. This moved has followed through into this morning with GBPUSD approaching close to the 8 period moving averages which is our initial support and value area for potential long entries. If GBPUSD can hold this level there is potential for a retest of resistance and the 1.6400 area which coincides with a prior weekly pivot high.

With the RSI and the moving averages confirming the up move and weekly time frame being in gear with the daily time frame shorting such a strong up trend can be dangerous. However with GBPUSD now trading into overhead resistance there is a possibility of a rejection of this level and a potential move back down to the 34 period moving averages and trend line support.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities. These retracements would be ideally taken off an obvious corrective pull back to the 8 period moving averages, trend line support or previous pivot high. However there is a possibility that pull backs are limited and GBPUSD continues to break higher. In this case pullbacks and break outs could potentially be identified off lower time frames.

Scenario 2
Alternatively a breach of the 8 period moving averages could see GBPUSD trade down the 34 period moving averages and trend line support.

Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 4th October 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Down
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Yesterday once again USDCHF breached the 0.9020 area but on this occasion managed to close beneath this level. This morning this negative momentum is continuing. The next potential support level is 0.8930 which corresponds to a weekly pivot swing low.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down corrective pullbacks could possibly offer selling opportunities with retracements back to the averages, the prior pivot low and broken support being value areas where shorts could potentially be added. However there is a possibility of USDCHF continuing to break lower following relatively minor corrective pullbacks which can be identified off intraday charts.

Scenario 2
Alternatively one could potentially take scalp longs up to the previously mentioned value areas.

Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 4th October 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Yesterday USDJPY continues its move down following the rejection of the 8 period moving averages. This morning USDJPY has opened quietly. We are awaiting the London open for an indication of possible short term directional momentum.

All eyes are now on the 96.80 level which coincides with a prior swing low. A breach of this pivot will effectively change the trend to short on a swing basis.

However a possible daily trend change to down maybe limited due to the strength of the uptrendâ€™s that can be found in both Monthly and Weekly time frames.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities

Scenario 2
Alternatively a move beneath the converging triangle opens up a possibility of shorting USDJPY down to the prior swing low.

Daily Technical Analysis for Gold as at 4th October 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Having breached the low of the 18th September pivot the daily trend in Gold has turned negative on a swing bases. The move down was large and exceeded the daily average range. That Gold experience a large bounce is in line with a corrective move that is in line with the weekly RSI positive divergence and the price action being extended from the averages.
The correction however may have been completed as Gold has now traded up to the 8 period moving averages which is a potential value area for shorts to be added. Furthermore the formation of a bearish head and shoulders pattern that is now forming continues the focus for the time on possible short set ups.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down corrective sideways to up movements could potentially be viewed as selling opportunities.

Scenario 2
Alternatively a breach of the 8 period moving averages could see Gold trade up to the 34 period moving averages.

Daily Technical Analysis for Oil (WTI) as at 4th October 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Mondayâ€™s down move eventually formed a bullish hammer. With the 101 level holding Oil was propelled higher and is now trading above the 8 period moving averages.

As the trend on a swing bias is short we are monitoring the price action for potential shorting opportunities. However as the weekly time frame remains positive there is a possibility that this move down is just a correction.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down retracements up to resistance such as the averages areas could possibly be viewed as selling opportunities.

Scenario 2
Alternatively one could possibly take scalp longs up to the averages.

acfx · October 17, 2013

Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX 10/17/2013

Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 17th October 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Yesterday EURUSD experienced a great deal of news related volatility before finally closing slightly higher and in the process printing a bullish hammer candle.

There appears to be on the bases of the last two sessionâ€™s strong support for EURUSD at the 1.3470 area. This morning EURUSD is trading higher off yesterdayâ€™s positive close and is currently broken back above the 8 period moving averages which is our preferred indicator used for the purposes of dynamic support and resistance on the daily time frame.

In terms of the daily trend the swing bias continues to be positive and this direction is being confirmed on the weekly time frame. Furthermore the averages layered positively and the RSI is in gear with the trend. We are monitoring a possible move to 1.3710 being a previous weekly pivot high.

However it would appear the EURUSD might be trying to print a bearish Head and Shoulders top. A break lower could see EURUSD trade down to trend line support.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities with the current long term target being the 1.3710 resistance level.

Scenario 2
Alternatively as the price action is attempting to print a Head and Shoulders top a break of the neck line could see EURUSD trade substantially lower.

Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 17th October 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Yesterday GBPUSD experienced a great deal of volatility and printed a relative wide range in what ended as a negative session. This morning GBPUSD has opened positively and paired most of yesterdayâ€™s losses.

On a swing bases GBPUSD continues to trend positively on both daily and weekly time frames but has traded down off multiyear trend line resistance. This moved has followed through and breached the uptrend line support. However further support has been found at the 34 period moving averages where GBPUSD has bounced. If GBPUSD can hold this level there is potential for a retest of resistance and the 1.6400 area which coincides with a prior weekly pivot high.

The long bias is reinforced by the RSI and the moving averages confirming the swing direction however a break of the 34 period moving averages could see GBPUSD trade down to 1.5700 area which coincides with the 1.5716 level being a previous swing pivot high of the 21st August 2013.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities.

Scenario 2
Alternatively a breach of the 34 period moving averages could see GBPUSD trade down the 1.5700 being a previous swing pivot high of the 21st August 2013.

Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 17th October 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Down
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Yesterday once again USDCHF attempted to breach the 34 period moving averages but failed in its attempt to trade above resistance. This failure to breach resistance has followed into todayâ€™s session with USDCHF trading lower and now breaching the 8 period moving averages. This move might be seen as a possible resumption of the down trend.

On a swing bases the trend continues to be negative with support areas being 0.9020 and 0.8930.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down corrective pullbacks could possibly offer selling opportunities with retracements back to the averages, the prior pivot low and broken support being value areas where shorts could potentially be added.

Scenario 2
Alternatively a failure to hold beneath the 8 period moving averages could see USDCHF trade back up to the 34 period moving averages.

Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 17th October 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

USDJPY continues to trade within a converging triangle formation but is now retracing and trading higher following the breach of the 96.80 level which coincided with a prior swing low. This breach of this pivot has effectively changed the trend to short on a swing basis.

However trend change to down maybe limited due to the strength of the uptrendâ€™s that can be found in both Monthly and Weekly time frames. Therefore breaks of the converging triangle formation should be treated with care and possible entered after further confirmation is received.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down retracements into resistance could be viewed as selling opportunities

Scenario 2
Alternatively a move above the converging triangle opens up a possibility of buying USDJPY with the view of participating in a large linear uptrend.

acfx · October 18, 2013

Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX 10/18/2013

Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 18th October 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Yesterday EURUSD experienced a stellar up day as it broke up from the 1.3470 and 8 period moving averages support level. This morning EURUSD is attempting to trade up to the 1.3710 resistance level which is a previous weekly pivot high.

In terms of the daily trend the swing bias continues to be positive and this direction is being confirmed on the weekly time frame. Furthermore the averages layered positively and the RSI is in gear with the trend. Furthermore yesterdayâ€™s move has invalidated the bearish Head and Shoulders top.

However as EURUSD is now greatly extended from the averages it would not be a surprise if the price action experiences corrective down to sideways movement.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities with the current long term target being the 1.3710 resistance level.

Scenario 2
Alternatively as the price action is extended from the averages there may be a possibility of short scalping opportunities being offered down to these averages.

Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 18th October 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Much like EURUSD yesterday GBPUSD also had a very strong up day and traded a much greater range than usual as it broke up from its averages and trend line support. This morning GBPUSD continues to trade higher albeit at a slower pace which is most probably not unusual after such a strong previous day.

On a swing bases GBPUSD continues to trend positively on both daily and weekly time frames and has now bounced off trend line support and the 34 period moving averages following its move down off multiyear trend line resistance. If GBPUSD can continue with its up move there is a possibility that the 1.6400 area is challenged. This level coincides with a prior weekly pivot high.

The long bias is reinforced by the RSI and the moving averages confirming the swing direction however as the price action is now extended from the averages the possibility of down to sideways corrective action should not be discounted.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities.

Scenario 2
Alternatively as the price action is extended from the averages there is a possibility of corrective down to sideways action down to the averages.

Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 18th October 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Down
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Yesterday USDCHF continued with itâ€™s downwards movement that was seen in the open as it rapidly collapsed off the resistance area that was offered by the averages. The down move was stopped at the 0.9020 area which was identified in yesterdays analysis.

On a swing bases the trend continues to be negative with support areas being 0.9020 and 0.8930.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down corrective pullbacks could possibly offer selling opportunities with retracements back to the averages, the prior pivot low and broken support being value areas where shorts could potentially be added.

Scenario 2
Alternatively a failure to hold beneath the 8 period moving averages could see USDCHF trade back up to the 34 period moving averages.

Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 18th October 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

As posted yesterday USDJPY continues to trade within a converging triangle formation but is now retracing and trading higher following the breach of the 96.80 level which coincided with a prior swing low. This breach of this pivot has effectively changed the trend to short on a swing basis.

However trend change to down maybe limited due to the strength of the uptrendâ€™s that can be found in both Monthly and Weekly time frames. Therefore breaks of the converging triangle formation should be treated with care and possible entered after further confirmation is received.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down retracements into resistance could be viewed as selling opportunities

Scenario 2
Alternatively a move above the converging triangle opens up a possibility of buying USDJPY with the view of participating in a large linear uptrend.

acfx · October 21, 2013

Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX 10/21/2013

Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 21st October 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

On Friday EURUSD traded at the highs of the latest up leg in what was a very quiet London and New York session which failed to break the key 1.3710 resistance level. This morningâ€™s open has thus far been extremely quiet.

In terms of the daily trend the swing bias continues to be positive and this direction is being confirmed on the weekly time frame. Furthermore the averages layered positively and the RSI is in gear with the trend. Furthermore the last up move has invalidated the bearish Head and Shoulders top scenario.

However as EURUSD is now greatly extended from the averages it would not be a surprise if the price action experiences corrective down to sideways movement.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities with the current long term target being the 1.3710 resistance level.

Scenario 2
Alternatively as the price action is extended from the averages there may be a possibility of short scalping opportunities being offered down to these averages.

Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 21st October 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

On Friday GBPUSD experience a very quiet day as it continued to find resistance off trend lines that where identified previously. This morning this theme has continued with GBPUSD opening unchanged.

On a swing bases GBPUSD continues to trend positively on both daily and weekly time frames following the bounce off both trend line and the 34 period moving averages support. If GBPUSD can continue with its upward bias there is a possibility that the 1.6400 area is challenged. This level coincides with a prior weekly pivot high.

The long bias is reinforced by the RSI and the moving averages confirming the swing direction however as the price action is now extended from the averages the possibility of down to sideways corrective action should not be discounted.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities.

Scenario 2
Alternatively as the price action is extended from the averages there is a possibility of corrective down to sideways action down to the averages.

Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 21st October 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Down
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Following USDCHF rapid collapse off moving average resistance further downward momentum was halted at the 0.9020 resistance level. On Friday USDCHF experienced a quiet session which saw this pair fail to make a substantial move beneath the 0.09020 level. This morning USDCHF is making a moderate bounce off this support area however it is too early in the session to predict if this is an attempt for USDCHF to print a higher low swing.

On a swing bases the trend continues to be negative with support areas being 0.9020 and 0.8930.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down corrective pullbacks could possibly offer selling opportunities with retracements back to the averages, the prior pivot low and broken support being value areas where shorts could potentially be added.

Scenario 2
Alternatively a failure to hold beneath the 8 period moving averages could see USDCHF trade back up to the 34 period moving averages.

Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 21st October 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Thursdayâ€™s price action saw USDJPY reject both Fibonacci and moving average resistance and in the process traded lower from these levels. However the price action on Friday was muted and this theme has so far continued into this morningâ€™s session.

In terms of the bigger picture USDJPY continues to trade within a converging triangle formation but is now retracing and trading higher following the breach of the 96.80 level which coincided with a prior swing low. This breach of this pivot has effectively changed the trend to short on a swing basis.

However trend change to down maybe limited due to the strength of the uptrendâ€™s that can be found in both Monthly and Weekly time frames. Therefore breaks of the converging triangle formation should be treated with care and possible entered after further confirmation is received.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down retracements into resistance could be viewed as selling opportunities

Scenario 2
Alternatively a move above the converging triangle opens up a possibility of buying USDJPY with the view of participating in a large linear uptrend.

acfx · October 22, 2013

Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX 10/22/2013

Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 22nd October 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Yesterday closed near to its open and under the key resistance level. This morning open has thus far been negative as EURUSD trades away from the 1.3710 level.

In terms of the daily trend the swing bias continues to be positive and this direction is being confirmed on the weekly time frame. Furthermore the averages layered positively and the RSI is in gear with the trend. Furthermore the last up move has invalidated the bearish Head and Shoulders top scenario.

However as EURUSD is now greatly extended from the averages it would not be a surprise if the price action experiences corrective down to sideways movement.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities with the current long term target being the 1.3710 resistance level.

Scenario 2
Alternatively as the price action is extended from the averages there may be a possibility of short scalping opportunities being offered down to these averages.

Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 22nd October 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Yesterday GBPUSD traded lower off trend line resistances and this move lower continued through to this morningâ€™s session

On a swing bases GBPUSD continues to trend positively on both daily and weekly time frames following the bounce off both trend line and the 34 period moving averages support. If GBPUSD can continue with its upward bias there is a possibility that the 1.6400 area is challenged. This level coincides with a prior weekly pivot high.

The long bias is reinforced by the RSI and the moving averages confirming the swing direction however as the price action is now extended from the averages the possibility of down to sideways corrective action should not be discounted.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities.

Scenario 2
Alternatively as the price action is extended from the averages there is a possibility of corrective down to sideways action down to the averages.

Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 22nd October 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Down
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

The 0.9020 level continues to offer support to USDCHF as it closed for the third day around this level. This morning there has been a positive open off this level. We are monitoring the possibility that USDCHF either breaks the 0.9020 level or trades up to 8 period moving averages.

On a swing bases the trend continues to be negative with support areas being 0.9020 and 0.8930.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down corrective pullbacks could possibly offer selling opportunities with retracements back to the averages, the prior pivot low and broken support being value areas where shorts could potentially be added.

Scenario 2
Alternatively we are monitoring a possible move to the 8 period moving averages.

Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 22nd October 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Yesterday USD closed slightly higher as it hugged the 8 period moving averages whilst trading beneath Fibonacci resistance. This theme has so far continued into this morningâ€™s session.

In terms of the bigger picture USDJPY continues to trade within a converging triangle formation but is now retracing and trading higher following the breach of the 96.80 level which coincided with a prior swing low. This breach of this pivot has effectively changed the trend to short on a swing basis.

However trend change to down maybe limited due to the strength of the uptrendâ€™s that can be found in both Monthly and Weekly time frames. Therefore breaks of the converging triangle formation should be treated with care and possible entered after further confirmation is received.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down retracements into resistance could be viewed as selling opportunities

Scenario 2
Alternatively a move above the converging triangle opens up a possibility of buying USDJPY with the view of participating in a large linear uptrend.

acfx · October 23, 2013

Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX 10/23/2013

Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 23rd October 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Yesterday EURUSD broke through and closed well above the key 1.3710 resistance level. This breach now puts into play a possible move to the 1.4250 area being last obvious isolated high on both daily and weekly charts. In the short term the next obvious resistance level is the 1.3835 being a prior weekly isolated low. A further advance will of course take EURUSD into a broad area of resistance that coincides with the 2011 highs.

This morning EURUSD has opened negatively which is not a surprise as the price action is now very extended from its averages. We are monitoring the possibility of further corrective down to sideways movement however a break above yesterdays high could potentially indicate a further strong appreciation in EURUSD.

In terms of the daily trend the swing bias continues to be positive and this direction is being confirmed on the weekly time frame. Furthermore the averages layered positively and the RSI is in gear with the trend.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities. However after such a strong impulse move there is further potential for EURUSD to continue to trade above daily and minor 4 and 1 hour isolated high pivots.

Scenario 2
Alternatively as the price action is extended from the averages there may be a possibility of short scalping opportunities with potential targets being the 1.3710 level and then the averages.

Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 23rd October 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Yesterday GBPUSD traded higher but failed to close above trend line resistance. This morning GBPUSD attempted to continue with the upward momentum but ultimately this move above the trend line resistance also failed. Subsequently GBPUSD has traded lower. However this retracement has thus far not reversed all of yesterday gains with the pullback pairing some 60% of the up thrust if taken from the bottom of yesterdayâ€™s lows. This of course is a potential obvious Fibonacci support level.

On a swing bases GBPUSD continues to trend positively on both daily and weekly time frames following the bounce off both trend line and the 34 period moving averages support. If GBPUSD can continue with its upward bias there is a possibility that the 1.6400 area is challenged. This level coincides with a prior weekly pivot high.

The long bias is reinforced by the RSI and the moving averages confirming the swing direction however as the price action is now extended from the averages the possibility of down to sideways corrective action should not be discounted.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities.

Scenario 2
Alternatively as the price action is extended from the averages there is a possibility of corrective down to sideways action down to the averages.

Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 23rd October 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Down
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Yesterday USDCHF broke down aggressively from the 0.9020 support. This morning the 0.8930 support level is in play as the price action hovers above this area.

On a swing bases the trend continues to be negative with support areas being 0.9020 and 0.8930.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down corrective pullbacks could possibly offer selling opportunities with retracements back to the averages, the prior pivot low and broken support being value areas where shorts could potentially be added.

Scenario 2
Alternatively USDCHF could potentially bounce off the 0.8930 area and trade back up to 0.9020.

Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 23rd October 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Yesterday USDJPY continued to hug the moving averages whilst trading beneath Fibonacci resistance. This morning USDJPY has traded strongly down from this area and is approaching the bottom of the converging triangle.

In terms of the bigger picture USDJPY continues to trade within a converging triangle formation but is now retracing and trading higher following the breach of the 96.80 level which coincided with a prior swing low. This breach of this pivot has effectively changed the trend to short on a swing basis.

However trend change to down maybe limited due to the strength of the uptrendâ€™s that can be found in both Monthly and Weekly time frames. Therefore breaks of the converging triangle formation should be treated with care and possible entered after further confirmation is received.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down retracements into resistance could be viewed as selling opportunities

Scenario 2
Alternatively a move above the converging triangle opens up a possibility of buying USDJPY with the view of participating in a large linear uptrend.

acfx · October 24, 2013

Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX 10/24/2013

Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 24th October 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Following the break of the key 1.3710 resistance level yesterday EURUSD struggle to make any further advances as it closed near the high of Tuesdayâ€™s candle. This morning we are seeing some initial buying pressure come into the market as EURUSD trades above Tuesdayâ€™s candle.

The breach of the 1.3710 level now puts into play a possible move to the 1.4250 area being last obvious isolated high on both daily and weekly charts. In the short term the next obvious resistance level is the 1.3835 being a prior weekly isolated low. A further advance will of course take EURUSD into a broad area of resistance that coincides with the 2011 highs.

In terms of the daily trend the swing bias continues to be positive and this direction is being confirmed on the weekly time frame. Furthermore the averages layered positively and the RSI is in gear with the trend.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities. However after such a strong impulse move there is further potential for EURUSD to continue to trade above daily and minor 4 and 1 hour isolated high pivots.

Scenario 2
Alternatively as the price action is extended from the averages there may be a possibility of short scalping opportunities with potential targets being the 1.3710 level and then the averages.

Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 24th October 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Yesterday after initially trying to trade above trend line resistance GBPUSD lost upward moment and eventually traded beneath the previous dayâ€™s close. However by the end of the session GBPUSD did manage to pair some of its losses and closed above yesterdays open. This morning the positive close to yesterdayâ€™s session has continued with GBPUSD trading higher. We are monitoring GBPUSD for a possible further push above trend line resistance.

On a swing bases GBPUSD continues to trend positively on both daily and weekly time frames following the bounce off both trend line and the 34 period moving averages support. If GBPUSD can continue with its upward bias there is a possibility that the 1.6400 area is challenged. This level coincides with a prior weekly pivot high.

The long bias is reinforced by the RSI and the moving averages confirming the swing direction however as the price action is now extended from the averages the possibility of down to sideways corrective action should not be discounted.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities.

Scenario 2
Alternatively as the price action is extended from the averages there is a possibility of corrective down to sideways action down to the averages.

Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 24th October 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Down
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Following the breach of the 0.9020 level yesterday USDCHF also broke the 0.8930 support level.

On a swing bases the trend continues to be negative with the next support area on a weekly swing pivot basis being at the 0.8570 area.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down corrective pullbacks could possibly offer selling opportunities with retracements back to the averages, the prior pivot low and broken support being value areas where shorts could potentially be added.

Scenario 2
Alternatively USDCHF is becoming increasing extended from the averages. This sets up the possibility of a corrective sideways to up corrective pullback.

Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 23rd October 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Yesterday USDJPY traded down to the area near the bottom of converging triangle support. This morning we are seeing some initial strength at this level. We are awaiting the open of the London session for confirmation that USDJPY can trade higher.

In terms of the bigger picture USDJPY continues to trade within a converging triangle. However the breach of the 96.80 level coincides with a prior swing low. This breach of this pivot has effectively changed the trend to short on a swing basis.

However the trend change to down maybe limited due to the strength of the uptrendâ€™s that can be found in both Monthly and Weekly time frames. Therefore breaks of the converging triangle formation should be treated with care and possible entered after further confirmation is received.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down retracements into resistance could be viewed as selling opportunities

Scenario 2
Alternatively buying opportunities may arise at converging triangle trend line support.

acfx · October 25, 2013

Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX 10/25/2013

Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 25th October 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Yesterday EURUSD traded higher and away from the now broken key 1.3710 resistance level. This morning we are seeing some initial buying pressure with EURUSD printing a new high. We are monitoring the price action so as to see if EURUSD can continue its advance.

The breach of the 1.3710 level now puts into play a possible move to the 1.4250 area being last obvious isolated high on both daily and weekly charts. In the short term the next obvious resistance level is the 1.3835 being a prior weekly isolated low. A further advance will of course take EURUSD into a broad area of resistance that coincides with the 2011 highs.

In terms of the daily trend the swing bias continues to be positive and this direction is being confirmed on the weekly time frame. Furthermore the averages layered positively and the RSI is in gear with the trend.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities. However after such a strong impulse move there is further potential for EURUSD to continue to trade above daily and minor 4 and 1 hour isolated high pivots.

Scenario 2
Alternatively as the price action is extended from the averages there may be a possibility of short scalping opportunities with potential targets being the 1.3710 level and then the averages.

Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 25th October 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Yesterday GBPUSD closed higher but within the range of the prior two sessions. This morning so far the price action is similar to yesterdays. It would appear that GBPUSD is being squeezed on all sides by resistance and support areas. The questions are

1. Will GBPUSD break resistance or support first?
2. Once broken can this currency pair maintain the move.
On a swing bases GBPUSD continues to trend positively on both daily and weekly time frames following the bounce off both trend line and the 34 period moving averages support. If GBPUSD can continue with its upward bias there is a possibility that the 1.6400 area is challenged. This level coincides with a prior weekly pivot high.

The long bias is reinforced by the RSI and the moving averages confirming the swing direction however as the price action is now extended from the averages the possibility of down to sideways corrective action should not be discounted.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities.

Scenario 2
Alternatively as the price action is extended from the averages there is a possibility of corrective down to sideways action down to the averages.

Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 25th October 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Down
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Having breached both 0.9020 and 0.8930 support levels yesterday USDCHF printed a bullish hammer candle. As the price action is extended from the averages there is a possibility that USDCHF experiences an up to sideways correction.

On a swing bases the trend continues to be negative with the next support area on a weekly swing pivot basis being at the 0.8570 area.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down corrective pullbacks could possibly offer selling opportunities with retracements back to the averages, the prior pivot low and broken support being value areas where shorts could potentially be added.

Scenario 2
Alternatively USDCHF is becoming increasing extended from the averages. This sets up the possibility of a corrective sideways to up corrective pullback.

Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 25th October 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Yesterday USDJPY experienced a brief pause as it printed a narrow range day. However this morning USDJPY has continued with itâ€™s down trend with the price action having touched the converging triangle support. We are now monitoring the price action to see if USDJPY will either bounce off this level or break lower.

In terms of the bigger picture USDJPY continues to trade within a converging triangle. However the breach of the 96.80 level coincides with a prior swing low. This breach of this pivot has effectively changed the trend to short on a swing basis.

However the trend change to down maybe limited due to the strength of the uptrendâ€™s that can be found in both Monthly and Weekly time frames. Therefore breaks of the converging triangle formation should be treated with care and possible entered after further confirmation is received.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down retracements into resistance could be viewed as selling opportunities

Scenario 2
Alternatively buying opportunities may arise at converging triangle trend line support.

acfx · October 29, 2013

Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX 10/29/2013

Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 29th October 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Yesterday EURUSD traded within the previous 2 days range as the price action consolidated at the highs of this strong up thrust. This morning we are seeing EURUSD trade back to the 8 period moving averages which is a potential value area where long positions could be entered. If this current level fails to hold support then the next value area is the 1.3710 level being a prior broken significant resistance level.

The breach of the 1.3710 level now puts into play a possible move to the 1.4250 area being last obvious isolated high on both daily and weekly charts. In the short term the next obvious resistance level is the 1.3835 being a prior weekly isolated low. A further advance will of course take EURUSD into a broad area of resistance that coincides with the 2011 highs.

In terms of the daily trend the swing bias continues to be positive and this direction is being confirmed on the weekly time frame. Furthermore the averages layered positively and the RSI is in gear with the trend.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities.

Scenario 2
Alternatively as the price action is extended from the averages there may be a possibility of short scalping opportunities with potential targets being the 1.3710 level.

Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 29th October 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Yesterday GBPUSD closed beneath both the 8 period moving averages and trend line support. This morning GBPUSD attempted to breach the 34 period moving averages only for support to come into the market and push the price action higher. I have now drawn a secondary trend line which connects most significant pivot points.

On a swing bases GBPUSD continues to trend positively on both daily and weekly time frames. However the current price action would appear to be attempting to print a lower high. Therefore it is important for the health of the current uptrend for the price action to not trade beneath the 16th October isolated low. Furthermore if GBPUSD can trade above the isolated highs of the 23rd and 1st October then the 1.6400 target level that coincides with a prior weekly pivot high will come back into play.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities.

Scenario 2
Alternatively a breach of trend line support could see GBPUSD trade down to 1.5893 being a prior isolated low that was printed on 16th October.

Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 29th October 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Down
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

USDCHF has now printed two bullish hammers at the 0.8930 level. Yesterday USDCHF was propelled higher from this level and into the 8 period moving averages. This morning USDCHF is trading slightly higher. As the price action is now trading at the 8 period moving average value areas we are monitoring developments for signs of negative rotation that will push USDCHF back to the 0.8930 level.

On a swing bases the trend continues to be negative with support areas on a weekly swing pivot basis being 0.8930 and 0.8570 areas.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down corrective pullbacks could possibly offer selling opportunities with retracements back to the averages, the prior pivot low and broken support being value areas where shorts could potentially be added.

Scenario 2
Alternatively a breach of the 8 period moving averages could see USDCHF trade up to the 34 period moving averages.

Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 29th October 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Following the bounce off trend line support yesterday USDJPY traded higher and into the 8 period moving averages. This morning the price action opened negatively at this level. This is significant as the 8 period moving averages could be considered a good area of both support and resistance. With this in mind the question is can USDJPY break down with significant force so as to validate to the short side the large converging triangle that has been forming since the May high or will triangle bottom act once again as strong support.

In terms of the bigger picture USDJPY continues to trade within a converging triangle. However the breach of the 96.80 level coincides with a prior swing low. This breach of this pivot has effectively changed the trend to short on a swing basis.

However the trend change to down maybe limited due to the strength of the uptrendâ€™s that can be found in both Monthly and Weekly time frames. Therefore breaks of the converging triangle formation should be treated with care and possible entered after further confirmation is received.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down retracements into resistance could be viewed as selling opportunities

Scenario 2
Alternatively buying opportunities may arise at converging triangle trend line support.

acfx · October 31, 2013

Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX 10/31/2013

Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 31st October 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Yesterday EURUSD opened and closed under the 8 period moving averages and this negativity has continued this morning with a breach of the 1.3710 support are. With support being in the area of trend line and 34 period moving averages it would not be unexpected to see the price action trading down to these levels. A move to this area would also coincide with 50 to 61.8 Fibonacci support area.

However there appears to be a RSI positive divergence forming which would indicate that this corrective down move could lose momentum. This could lead the price action to flipping back up to the long side. The obvious question being do you start taking nibbles on the upside now or follow the market down to the support areas mentioned.

In terms of the daily trend the swing bias continues to be positive and this direction is being confirmed on the weekly time frame. Upside targets 1.3710, 1.3835 and 1.4250 all being previous isolated highs.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities.

Scenario 2
Alternatively as EURUSD is trading beneath the 8 period moving averages and the 1.3710 support level there is a possibility that the price action will correct further with targets being the area of trend line and 34 period moving averages.

Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 31st October 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Yesterday GBPUSD opened and closed beneath the 34 period moving averages and trend line support. This morning the price action is now trading deep into Fibonacci support.

GBPUSD does continue to trade above the prior isolated low. Furthermore GBPUSD is now trading within the previous dayâ€™s range and a positive RSI divergence is forming. This may indicate that this squeeze in volatility will lead to an upside pop.

However with the price action now printing a double top and trading beneath two broken trend lines there is also a probability that an attempt is made to breach the 16th October isolated low.

On an intraday basis the H1 (1 hour) chart seems to be putting in a double bottom. Our focus for the time being is 1.6077 and 1.5997 being the previous dayâ€™s High and low with a breach of these levels potential indicating the todayâ€™s market direction.

On a daily swing bases GBPUSD continues to trend positively on both daily and weekly time frames. However the current price action would appear to be attempting to print a lower high. Therefore it is important for the health of the current uptrend for the price action to not trade beneath the 16th October isolated low. Furthermore if GBPUSD can trade above the isolated highs of the 23rd and 1st October then the 1.6400 target level that coincides with a prior weekly pivot high will come back into play.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities.

Scenario 2
Alternatively as there has been a breach of trend line there is a possibility of a move down to 1.5893 being a prior isolated low that was printed on 16th October.

Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 31st October 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Down
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Following the printing of two bullish hammers at the 0.8930 level USDCHF has experienced a good corrective retracement past the 8 period moving averages. This morning USDCHF continues to trade higher. As the price action is now trading above the 8 period moving average value areas we are monitoring developments for signs of negative rotation that will push USDCHF back to the 0.8930 level.

However yesterday USDCHF did try to breach the 0.9020 level and a further attempt was made this morning. If USDCHF can overcome this level then the next target is the 34 period moving averages.

On a swing bases the trend continues to be negative with support areas on a weekly swing pivot basis being 0.8930 and 0.8570 areas.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down corrective pullbacks could possibly offer selling opportunities with retracements back to the averages, the prior pivot low and broken support being value areas where shorts could potentially be added.

Scenario 2
Alternatively a breach of the 0.9020 level could see USDCHF trade up to the 34 period moving averages.

Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 31st October 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Following the bounce off trend line support yesterday USDJPY traded higher and into the 34 period moving averages. This morning the price action opened negatively but continues to trade above this technical indicator. With USDJPY printing a higher low if the price action can now trade above the isolated high of the 17th October the swing bias will change to positive. However the current swing bias on the daily chart continues to be negative and this is confirmed by the negatively layered averages and downside pressure offered by Fibonacci resistance.

In terms of the bigger picture USDJPY continues to trade within a converging triangle. However the breach of the 96.80 level coincides with a prior swing low. This breach of this pivot has effectively changed the trend to short on a swing basis.

However the trend change to down maybe limited due to the strength of the uptrendâ€™s that can be found in both Monthly and Weekly time frames. Therefore breaks of the converging triangle formation should be treated with care and possible entered after further confirmation is received.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down retracements into resistance could be viewed as selling opportunities

Scenario 2
Alternatively the printing of a higher lower and with the price action now trading above the 34 period moving averages could prompt USDJPY to trade up to the 17th October isolated high.

acfx · November 1, 2013

Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX 11/01/2013

Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 1st November 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Yesterday EURUSD traded aggressively lower as it broke through trend line support and finally closing at the 34 period moving averages. Yesterdayâ€™s negativity has followed through to this morningâ€™s session with EURUSD opening and trading beneath the 34 period moving average and deep into Fibonacci support.

After such a strong move down, the obvious focus goes onto the 16th October prior isolated low with. A move beneath this level will turn the daily swing bias to negativity. This scenario alone could give impetus for further down side movement.

However there appears to be a RSI positive divergence forming which would indicate that this corrective down move could lose momentum. This could lead the price action to flipping back up to the long side. The obvious question being do you start taking nibbles on the upside now or follow the market down to the support areas mentioned.

In terms of the daily trend the swing bias continues to be positive and this direction is being confirmed on the weekly time frame. Upside targets 1.3710, 1.3835 and 1.4250 all being previous isolated highs. Down side targets being the 16th October prior isolated low at 1.3470.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities.

Scenario 2
Alternatively as EURUSD is trading beneath the 34 period moving averages and the 1.3710 support level there is a possibility that the price action will correct further to the 16th October prior isolated low.

Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 1st November 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Down
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Yesterday USDCHF experienced a stellar up day as it trade up and closed above the 34 period moving averages. This morning USDCHF has opened positively and we are now monitoring the potential for a move to trend line resistance.

On a basis swing bases the trend continues to be negative. Furthermore USDCHF has now traded into Fibonacci resistance and a negative RSI divergence is forming. Therefore there is potential for negative rotation at these levels and a resumption of the down trend.

The support and resistance areas on a weekly swing pivot basis being 0.9020 0.8930, 0.8570 and 0.9200.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down corrective pullbacks could possibly offer selling opportunities with retracements back to the averages, the prior pivot low and broken support being value areas where shorts could potentially be added.

Scenario 2
Alternatively the breach of the 34 period moving averages could see USDCHF trade towards trend line resistance.

Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 1st November 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

USDJPY yesterday failed to trade into Fibonacci resistance. This failure has followed through into this morningâ€™s session with USDJPY trading lower. We are monitoring the price action to see if a potential down move can be held at trend line support. Furthermore as USDJPY has printed a higher low if the price action can now trade above the isolated high of the 17th October the swing bias will change to positive. However the current swing bias on the daily chart continues to be negative and this is confirmed by the negatively layered averages and downside pressure offered by Fibonacci resistance.

In terms of the bigger picture USDJPY continues to trade within a converging triangle. However the breach of the 96.80 level coincides with a prior swing low. This breach of this pivot has effectively changed the trend to short on a swing basis.

However the trend change to down maybe limited due to the strength of the uptrendâ€™s that can be found in both Monthly and Weekly time frames. Therefore breaks of the converging triangle formation should be treated with care and possibly entered after further confirmation is received.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down retracements into resistance could be viewed as selling opportunities

Scenario 2
Alternatively the printing of a higher lower and with the price action now trading around the averages could prompt USDJPY to trade up to the 17th October isolated high.

Daily Technical Analysis for Gold as at 1st November 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Following the corrective rally Gold yesterday resumed its down trend by trading aggressively lower. This morning Gold has had thus far a very quiet open.
On a daily both a daily and weekly swing basis Gold is trading negatively.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down corrective sideways to up movements could potentially be viewed as selling opportunities.

Scenario 2
Alternatively long scalping opportunities might arise as the price action become extended from the averages.

Daily Technical Analysis for Oil (WTI) as at 1st November 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Oil has traded lower following its correction and touch of the 8 period moving averages. Yesterday Oil continued with the downward momentum albeit at a slower pace. This morning the price action has opened positively.

With the last isolated low of the 24th October being at the 95.93 Oil will need to breach of this level to continue with the down move. However Oil is now trading into a large weekly congestion area at around the 95.50 area therefore this support area needs to be overcome.

The trend on a daily swing bias is short with the averages and the RSI confirming this direction. However as the weekly time frame remains positive the below congestion area might prove to be a strong support area.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down retracements up to resistance such as the averages areas could possibly be viewed as selling opportunities.

Scenario 2
Alternatively one could possibly take scalp longs up to the averages.

acfx · November 4, 2013

Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX 11/04/2013

Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 4th November 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Down
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

On Friday EURUSD traded much lower as it broke down from trend line support and the 34 period moving averages. This morning EURUSD traded down to a lower trend line where buying came into the market.

However this morningâ€™s moves lower has breached the 16th October prior isolated low. This breach has effectively changed the daily trend from up to down.

That the weekly time frame does continue to point up and the RSI is forming a positive divergence and with the price action this morning bouncing off support could give the market the excuse to bounce further. However unless the price action can take out a previous high the swing bias on the daily time frame will remain negative.

Upside targets 1.3710, 1.3835 and 1.4250 all being previous isolated highs. Down side targets being the 6th September prior isolated low at 1.3104.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down retracements into resistance could be viewed as selling opportunities.

Scenario 2
Alternatively as EURUSD is trading at trend line support there is a possibility of a corrective bounce.

Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 4th November 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

On Friday GBPUSD traded much lower as it broke down from the 34 period moving averages and trend line support. This morning GBPUSD is making an attempt to breach the 16th October isolated low which would effectively change the trend to short. The moving averages have also crossed negatively which is an indication that the trend may change. However the RSI continues to for a positive divergence.

On a daily swing bases GBPUSD continues to trend positively on both daily and weekly time frames. However the current price action would appear to be attempting to print a lower high. Therefore it is important for the health of the current uptrend for the price action to not trade beneath the 16th October isolated low. Furthermore if GBPUSD can trade above the isolated highs of the 23rd and 1st October then the 1.6400 target level that coincides with a prior weekly pivot high will come back into play.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities.

Scenario 2
Alternatively as there has been a breach of trend line there is a possibility of a move down to 1.5893 being a prior isolated low that was printed on 16th October.

Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 4th November 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Down
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

On Friday USDCHF traded much higher as it broke away from the 34 period moving averages. This morning USDCHF is trading towards the downward sloping trend line.

On a basis swing bases the trend continues to be negative. Furthermore USDCHF has now traded into Fibonacci resistance and a negative RSI divergence is forming. Therefore there is potential for negative rotation at these levels and a resumption of the down trend.

The support and resistance areas on a weekly swing pivot basis being 0.9020 0.8930, 0.8570 and 0.9200.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down corrective pullbacks could possibly offer selling opportunities with retracements back to the averages, the prior pivot low and broken support being value areas where shorts could potentially be added.

Scenario 2
Alternatively the breach of the 34 period moving averages could see USDCHF trade towards trend line resistance.

Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 1st November 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

On Friday USDJPY attempt to trade into Fibonacci resistance but ultimately failed to close inside this area. This morningâ€™s open has been very quiet.

As USDJPY has printed a higher low if the price action can now trade above the isolated high of the 17th October the swing bias will change to positive. However the current swing bias on the daily chart continues to be negative and this is confirmed by the negatively layered averages and downside pressure offered by Fibonacci resistance.

In terms of the bigger picture USDJPY continues to trade within a converging triangle. However the breach of the 96.80 level coincides with a prior swing low. This breach of this pivot has effectively changed the trend to short on a swing basis.

However the trend change to down maybe limited due to the strength of the uptrendâ€™s that can be found in both Monthly and Weekly time frames. Therefore breaks of the converging triangle formation should be treated with care and possibly entered after further confirmation is received.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down retracements into resistance could be viewed as selling opportunities

Scenario 2
Alternatively the printing of a higher lower and with the price action now trading around the averages could prompt USDJPY to trade up to the 17th October isolated high.

Daily Technical Analysis for Gold as at 4th November 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Gold on Friday continued to trade lower as it resumed with the prior down trend. This morning Gold has opened quietly and within Fridays range.
On a daily both a daily and weekly swing basis Gold is trading negatively.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down corrective sideways to up movements could potentially be viewed as selling opportunities.

Scenario 2
Alternatively long scalping opportunities might arise as the price action become extended from the averages.

Daily Technical Analysis for Oil (WTI) as at 4th November 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Oil on Friday broke the 95.50 support level and is now trading within a large prior congestion area.

The trend on a daily swing bias is short with the averages and the RSI confirming this direction. However as the weekly time frame remains positive the below congestion area might prove to be a strong support area.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down retracements up to resistance such as the averages areas could possibly be viewed as selling opportunities.

Scenario 2
Alternatively one could possibly take scalp longs up to the averages.

acfx · November 6, 2013

Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX 11/06/2013

Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 6th November 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Down
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Yesterday EURUSD traded lower but closed above the upward sloping trend line. This morning EURUSD is trading higher but within the previous two days range. A break above of or beneath the top or bottom of this range might indicate medium term market direction.

In terms of the bigger picture following the breach of the 16th October prior isolated low has changed the daily trend from up to down.

However the weekly time frame does continue to point up and the RSI is forming a positive divergence. As EURUSD has found support at the upward sloping trend line this and the other bullish factors mention could give the market the excuse it needs to trade higher. However unless the price action can take out a previous high the swing bias on the daily time frame will remain negative.

Upside targets 1.3710, 1.3835 and 1.4250 all being previous isolated highs. Down side targets being the 6th September prior isolated low at 1.3104.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down retracements into resistance could be viewed as selling opportunities.

Scenario 2
Alternatively as EURUSD is trading at trend line support there is a possibility of a corrective bounce.

Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 6th November 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Yesterday GBPUSD traded higher following its bounce off support. This positivity has continued into todayâ€™s session with the price action now trading up to the 34 period moving averages.

On a daily swing bases GBPUSD continues to trend positively on both daily and weekly time frames. However the current price action would appear to be attempting to print a lower high. Therefore it is important for the health of the current uptrend that GBPUSD does note trade beneath the 16th October isolated low. That the RSI is diverging positively does give the long side some encouragement but it should be noted that the averages have crossed negatively for the first time since July 2013.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities.

Scenario 2
Alternatively as GBPUSD is trading within the 8/34 SMA resistance area there is a possibility that the price action rejects this level and trades back down to 1.5893 being a prior isolated low that was printed on 16th October.

Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 6th November 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Down
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Yesterday failed to breach trend line resistance. Todayâ€™s session has so far been negative with todayâ€™s price action trading within the previous two days ranges.

On a basis swing bases the trend continues to be negative. Furthermore USDCHF has now traded into Fibonacci resistance and a negative RSI divergence is forming. Therefore there is potential for negative rotation at these levels and a resumption of the down trend.

The support and resistance areas on a weekly swing pivot basis being 0.9020 0.8930, 0.8570 and 0.9200.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down corrective pullbacks could possibly offer selling opportunities with retracements back to the averages, the prior pivot low and broken support being value areas where shorts could potentially be added.

Scenario 2
Alternatively a breach of trend line resistance could see could see USDCHF trade towards the 16th October isolated high.

Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 6th November 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Yesterday USDJPY traded away from the Fibonacci resistance area however the move down was limited and reversed at the 8 period moving averages. This morning USDJPY is trading higher and retesting the Fibonacci area.

We have noticed that USDJPY experiencing a contraction of daily ranges which could be a sign that energy is building for a potential large break of the converging triangle formation.

The trend on the daily time frame is pointing down but USDJPY has printed a higher high and the weekly time frame continues to be positive. These factors could potentially indicate that the break will be to the upside. Furthermore if USDJPY can breach 17th October isolated high will add further weight to the case for an upside break.

However the overhead Fibonacci area that has offered good resistance will have to be overcome to allow for further upside with a failure to trade higher could see USDJPY trade back to trend line support.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down retracements into resistance could be viewed as selling opportunities

Scenario 2
Alternatively the printing of a higher lower and with the price action now trading around the averages could prompt USDJPY to trade up to the 17th October isolated high.

Daily Technical Analysis for Gold as at 6th November 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Yesterday Gold continued to trade within a tight range and this price action has continued into this morningâ€™s session.
On a daily both a daily and weekly swing basis Gold is trading negatively.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down corrective sideways to up movements could potentially be viewed as selling opportunities.

Scenario 2
Alternatively long scalping opportunities might arise as the price action become extended from the averages.

Daily Technical Analysis for Oil (WTI) as at 6th November 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Yesterday Oil continued to trade and closed lower. This morningâ€™s open has been quiet thus far.

The trend on a daily swing bias is short with the averages and the RSI confirming this direction. However as the weekly time frame remains positive the below congestion area might prove to be a strong support area.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down retracements up to resistance such as the averages areas could possibly be viewed as selling opportunities.

Scenario 2
Alternatively one could possibly take scalp longs up to the averages.

acfx · November 7, 2013

Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX 11/07/2013

Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 6th November 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Down
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Yesterday EURUSD breached the high of the two day range only for the price action to trade back and close within this range. This morning EURUSD has open up slightly positive. We are monitoring the market action for signs that EURUSD will succeed with the upside breakout or alternatively this pair trades back to trend line support.

In terms of the bigger picture following the breach of the 16th October prior isolated low has changed the daily trend from up to down.

However the weekly time frame does continue to point up and the RSI is forming a positive divergence. As EURUSD has found support at the upward sloping trend line this and the other bullish factors mention could give the market the excuse it needs to trade higher. However unless the price action can take out a previous high the swing bias on the daily time frame will remain negative.

Upside targets 1.3710, 1.3835 and 1.4250 all being previous isolated highs. Down side targets being the 6th September prior isolated low at 1.3104.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down retracements into resistance could be viewed as selling opportunities.

Scenario 2
Alternatively as EURUSD is trading around trend line support there is a possibility of a corrective bounce.

Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 7th November 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Yesterday GBPUSD breached and closed above 8 period moving averages. This positivity has continued into todayâ€™s session with the price action trading above the 34 period moving averages.

On a daily swing bases GBPUSD continues to trend positively on both daily and weekly time frames. However the current price action would appear to be attempting to print a lower high. Therefore it is important for the health of the current uptrend that GBPUSD does note trade beneath the 16th October isolated low. That the RSI is diverging positively does give the long side some encouragement but it should be noted that the averages have crossed negatively for the first time since July 2013.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities.

Scenario 2
Alternatively as GBPUSD is trading within the 8/34 SMA resistance area there is a possibility that the price action rejects this level and trades back down to 1.5893 being a prior isolated low that was printed on 16th October.

Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 7th November 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Down
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

The price action continues to trade under trend line resistance and this morning has opened up within a four day range.

On a basis swing bases the trend continues to be negative. Furthermore USDCHF has now traded into Fibonacci resistance and a negative RSI divergence is forming. Therefore there is potential for negative rotation at these levels and a resumption of the down trend.

The support and resistance areas on a weekly swing pivot basis being 0.9020 0.8930, 0.8570 and 0.9200.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down corrective pullbacks could possibly offer selling opportunities with retracements back to the averages, the prior pivot low and broken support being value areas where shorts could potentially be added.

Scenario 2
Alternatively a breach of trend line resistance could see could see USDCHF trade towards the 16th October isolated high.

Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 7th November 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Yesterday USDJPY found support at the 8 period moving averages. This morning the price action continues to hug this average. However the Fibonacci resistance area continues to stall USDJPY upward momentum.

We have noticed that USDJPY experiencing a contraction of daily ranges which could be a sign that energy is building for a potential large break of the converging triangle formation.

The trend on the daily time frame is pointing down but USDJPY has printed a higher high and the weekly time frame continues to be positive. These factors could potentially indicate that the break will be to the upside. Furthermore if USDJPY can breach 17th October isolated high will add further weight to the case for an upside break.

However the overhead Fibonacci area that has offered good resistance will have to be overcome to allow for further upside with a failure to trade higher could see USDJPY trade back to trend line support.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down retracements into resistance could be viewed as selling opportunities

Scenario 2
Alternatively the printing of a higher lower and with the price action now trading around the averages could prompt USDJPY to trade up to the 17th October isolated high.

Daily Technical Analysis for Gold as at 7th November 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Yesterday Gold continued to trade within a tight range and this price action has continued into this morningâ€™s session. We are monitoring breaks of this range with key levels being 1327.00 and 1305.50.
On a daily both a daily and weekly swing basis Gold is trading negatively.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down corrective sideways to up movements could potentially be viewed as selling opportunities.

Scenario 2
Alternatively long scalping opportunities might arise as the price action become extended from the averages.

Daily Technical Analysis for Oil (WTI) as at 7th November 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Yesterday Oil rallied up to the 8 period moving averages. Approaches to this average can offer opportunities as a value area where shorts can potentially be added. This morning Oil has opened negatively. We are monitoring the price action for signs that the down trend will resume.

The trend on a daily swing bias is short with the averages and the RSI confirming this direction. However as the weekly time frame remains positive the below congestion area might prove to be a strong support area.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down retracements up to resistance such as the averages areas could possibly be viewed as selling opportunities.

Scenario 2
Alternatively one could possibly take scalp longs up to the averages.

acfx · November 8, 2013

Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX 11/08/2013

Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 7th November 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Down
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Yesterdayâ€™s surprise rate cut decision led to a collapse in EURUSD with the price action breaking through trend line support. By the afternoon buying came into the market which paired some of the losses. This reaction to the sell off formed a large V bottom and substantial correction that allowed EURUSD to close just beneath prior trend line support.

This morning EURUSD has opened negatively. We are monitoring the price action for indications for continuation of the down trend that will allow for a move beneath yesterdayâ€™s low or a further correction off the V bottom that takes the price action to prior trend line support.

In terms of the bigger picture following the breach of the 16th October prior isolated low has changed the daily trend on a swing basis from up to down. This negative swing bias has been confirmed by multiple breaches of trend line support and the moving averages being layer negatively. Furthermore the RSI positive divergence has been invalidated by yesterdayâ€™s break down and the breach of Fibonacci support.

However the move down did find support and with EURUSD now extended from its averages there is a possibility of further upside correction.

The Macro Technical Targets
The upside targets are 1.3470, 1.3650, and 1.3930. The downside targets are 1.3300, 1.3200, 1.3100 and 1.2750.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down retracements into resistance could be viewed as selling opportunities.

Scenario 2
Alternatively as EURUSD is extended from the averages there is a potential for further upside correction.

Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 8th November 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Yesterday GBPUSD attempted to trade lower only for support to come into the market and in the process allow for a slightly higher close. This morningâ€™s open has so far been quiet.

On a daily swing bases GBPUSD continues to trend positively on both daily and weekly time frames. However the current price action would appear to be attempting to print a lower high. Therefore it is important for the health of the current uptrend that GBPUSD does note trade beneath the 16th October isolated low. That the RSI is diverging positively does give the long side some encouragement but it should be noted that the averages have crossed negatively for the first time since July 2013.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities.

Scenario 2
Alternatively as GBPUSD is trading around the 8/34 SMA resistance area there is a possibility that the price action rejects this level and trades back down to 1.5893 being a prior isolated low that was printed on 16th October.

Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 8th November 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Up
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Yesterdays upside break of the 3 day range was followed by a breach of both trend line resistance and more importantly the 15th October high. The breach of this high is significant as USDCHF has now printed a higher high that effectively changes the trend on a swing basis to up. However yesterday was not a totally positive day as selling came into the market at trend line resistance that paired some of yesterdayâ€™s gains and in the process a bearish shooting star candle has been printed.

This morning USDCHF has opened within yesterdays large range in what is so far a quiet open.

On a basis swing bases the trend is now positive following the breach of the prior isolated high. The moving averages are now layered positively and the breach of trend line resistance and the invalidation of Fibonacci resistance and the negative RSI divergence give further confirmation to the upside.

However the weekly time frame continues to point down and the price action is now extended from the averages which could lead a downside correction.

Intraday levels to watch are 0.9250 and 0.9105.

Macro technical levels are 0.9020 0.8930, 0.8570 and 0.9200.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up corrective pullbacks could possibly offer buying opportunities with retracements back to the averages, the prior pivot low and broken support being value areas where longs could potentially be added.

Scenario 2
Alternatively as the price action is extended there is potential for shorting opportunities back to the averages.

Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 8th November 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Up
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Yesterday USDJPY experienced a great deal of volatility and in the process printed a higher high that followed the breach of the 17th October high. This morning USDJPY is trading within yesterdays large range in what is a quiet open.

As mentioned yesterday the potential increase in volatility was foreseen by the recent contraction of daily ranges. With USDJPY now breaching the prior swing high of the 17th October has changed the trend on a swing bias to up. The change of the daily trend now puts the swing bias in line with the weekly trend. An indication of a potential trend change was given by the higher low printed on the 25th October. If we now see an expansion of the daily ranges there is a possibility of a potential break of the downward sloping trend line that forms the upper limit of a large converging triangle.

However the overhead Fibonacci area that has offered good resistance will have to be overcome to allow for further upside with a failure to trade higher could see USDJPY trade back to trend line support.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities.

Scenario 2
Alternatively both the Fibonacci resistance and upper trend line of the converging triangle could offer downside pressure that pushes USDJPY back to support.

Daily Technical Analysis for Gold as at 8th November 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Yesterday Gold broke down from the tight trading range. This morningâ€™s open has thus far been quiet.
We are monitoring the potential for a resumption of the down trend.
On a daily both a daily and weekly swing basis Gold is trading negatively.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down corrective sideways to up movements could potentially be viewed as selling opportunities.

Scenario 2
Alternatively long scalping opportunities might arise as the price action become extended from the averages.

Daily Technical Analysis for Oil (WTI) as at 8th November 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments
Yesterday Oil traded lower after touching the 8 period moving averages. Approaches to this average can offer opportunities as a value area where shorts can potentially be added.

This morning Oil has opened quietly and within a 2 day range. We are monitoring the price action for signs that the down trend will resume.

The trend on a daily swing bias is short with the averages and the RSI confirming this direction. However as the weekly time frame remains positive the below congestion area might prove to be a strong support area.

Intraday levels to watch are 95.40 and 93.50.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down retracements up to resistance such as the averages areas could possibly be viewed as selling opportunities.

Scenario 2
Alternatively one could possibly take scalp longs up to the averages.

acfx · November 11, 2013

Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX 11/11/2013

Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 11th November 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Down
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Friday was another wide range day which eventually closed lower. Although Fridayâ€™s price action managed to close beneath Thursdayâ€™s close there was not sufficient downside momentum for EURUSD to trade beneath the low of Thursdayâ€™s trading range. This morningâ€™s open has thus far been quiet and within Fridays trading range.

This morning EURUSD has opened negatively. We are monitoring the price action for indications for continuation of the down trend that will allow for a move beneath 7th November low or a further correction off the V bottom that takes the price action to prior trend line support.

In terms of the bigger picture following the breach of the 16th October prior isolated low has changed the daily trend on a swing basis from up to down. This negative swing bias has been confirmed by multiple breaches of trend line support and the moving averages being layered negatively. Furthermore the RSI positive divergence has been invalidated by the 7th November break down.

However the move down did find support and with EURUSD now extended from its averages there is a possibility of further upside correction.

The Macro Technical Targets
The upside targets are 1.3470, 1.3530, 1.3650, and 1.3830. The downside targets are 1.3300, 1.3200, 1.3100 and 1.2750.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down retracements into resistance could be viewed as selling opportunities.

Scenario 2
Alternatively as EURUSD is extended from the averages there is a potential for further upside correction.

Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 11th November 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

On Friday GBPUSD retested trend line support but failed in its attempt to breach this area. This morningâ€™s open has so far been quiet with the price action trading just above the trend line and with Fibonacci support.

On a daily swing bases GBPUSD continues to trend positively on both daily and weekly time frames. However the current price action would appear to be attempting to print a lower high. Therefore it is important for the health of the current uptrend that GBPUSD does note trade beneath the 16th October isolated low. That the RSI is diverging positively does give the long side some encouragement but it should be noted that the averages have crossed negatively for the first time since July 2013.

Marco Technical Targets
1.6260, 1.6170, 1.5890, 1.5715, 1.5570, 1.5720

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities.

Scenario 2
Alternatively as GBPUSD is trading around the 8/34 SMA resistance area there is a possibility that the price action rejects this level and trades back down to 1.5890 being a prior isolated low that was printed on 16th October.

Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 11th November 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Up
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Friday USDCHF made a further attempt to breach trend line resistance but was unable break above this area. However the price action did manage to close near the highs of its days range.

This morningâ€™s open has thus far been quiet. We are monitoring the price action for signs that USDCHF will either make another attempt to retest trend line resistance or fall back to its overextended averages.

On a basis swing bases the trend is now positive following the breach of the prior isolated high. The moving averages are now layered positively and the breach of trend line resistance and the invalidation of Fibonacci resistance and the negative RSI divergence give further confirmation to the upside.

However the weekly time frame continues to point down and the price action is now extended from the averages which could lead a downside correction.

Intraday levels to watch are 0.9250 and 0.9105.

Macro technical levels are 0.9020 0.8930, 0.8570 and 0.9200.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up corrective pullbacks could possibly offer buying opportunities with retracements back to the averages, the prior pivot low and broken support being value areas where longs could potentially be added.

Scenario 2
Alternatively as the price action is extended there is potential for shorting opportunities back to the averages.

Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 11th November 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Up
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Following Thursday 7th volatile day which printed both a higher high and lower close attention was focused on which way USDJPY would move and if the price action that followed confirmed the direction. Fridayâ€™s price action has given some confirmation that the printing of the higher high will lead to a new uptrend. Fridayâ€™s bar did in fact close strongly and near the top of its trading range and above positively layered averages. However Fridayâ€™s bar did not breach the 7th November high. We would want to see such a breach for further upside confirmation.

This morning USDJPY has opened slightly negatively but it is rather early in the session to extract any conclusions from this. Our main focuses of attention for today is can USDJPY trade above the 7th November high and then make an attempt in breaching the downward sloping trend line.

As mentioned in previous postings the potential increase in volatility was foreseen by the recent contraction of daily ranges. With USDJPY now breaching the prior swing high of the 17th October has changed the trend on a swing bias to up. The change of the daily trend now puts the swing bias in line with the weekly trend. An indication of a potential trend change was given by the higher low printed on the 25th October. If we now see an expansion of the daily ranges there is a possibility of a potential break of the downward sloping trend line that forms the upper limit of a large converging triangle.

However the overhead Fibonacci area that has offered good resistance will have to be overcome to allow for further upside with a failure to trade higher could see USDJPY trade back to trend line support.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities.

Scenario 2
Alternatively both the Fibonacci resistance and upper trend line of the converging triangle could offer downside pressure that pushes USDJPY back to support.

Daily Technical Analysis for Gold as at 11th November 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Down
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Friday Gold continued to trade lower following Thursdays break down from its trading range and the 8 period moving averages.
This morningâ€™s open has thus far been quiet with the price action trading within Fridayâ€™s trading range.
We are monitoring the potential for a resumption of the down trend.
On a daily both a daily and weekly swing basis Gold is trading negatively.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down corrective sideways to up movements could potentially be viewed as selling opportunities.

Scenario 2
Alternatively long scalping opportunities might arise as the price action become extended from the averages.

Daily Technical Analysis for Oil (WTI) as at 11th November 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

On Friday Oil continued to hug the 8 period moving averages. Approaches to this average can offer opportunities as a value area where shorts can potentially be added.

This morning Oil has opened quietly and within a 4 day range. We are monitoring the price action for signs that the down trend will resume.

The trend on a daily swing bias is short with the averages and the RSI confirming this direction. However as the weekly time frame remains positive the below congestion area might prove to be a strong support area.

Intraday levels to watch are 95.40 and 93.50.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down retracements up to resistance such as the averages areas could possibly be viewed as selling opportunities.

Scenario 2
Alternatively one could possibly take scalp longs up to the averages.

acfx · November 12, 2013

Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX 11/12/2013

Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 12th November 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Down
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Yesterday EURUSD experienced a corrective rally which saw it trade well within both Thursdays and Fridays ranges.

Intraday view
This morningâ€™s EURUSD has opened with a downside break of the overnight range. The possible projected maximum daily ranges based upon current price action being 1.3317 to 1.3475.

We are currently monitoring the price action for indications that EURUSD can trade and sustain a move either above the high or beneath the low of Fridayâ€™s range which was 1.3417 to 1.3437. Breaks of this range will have initial targets the low of the 7th November or upside targets of the 8 period moving averages and prior trend line support.

Trade Ideas
1. The breach of the 16th October prior isolated low has changed the daily trend on a swing basis from up to down. This negative swing bias has been confirmed by multiple breaches of trend line support and the moving averages being layered negatively. Furthermore the RSI positive divergence has been invalidated by the 7th November break down. As the dominant daily trend based on swing analysis is down corrective pullbacks especially to resistance areas could be views as potential value areas where shorts could be added.

2. However the weekly time frame continues to be swing positive. Therefore there is a possibility that the down trend on the daily chart is nothing more than a corrective sell off that brings the price action into potential value areas where long term swing position buy trades could be executed. EURUSD was supported during the down move and with the price action now extended from the averages could be a catalyst for long side position traders to take advantage of the lower prices. This scenario is valid as long as EURUSD can trade above the 6th September swing long which comes in around the 1.3100 area.

The Macro Technical Targets
The upside targets are 1.3470, 1.3530, 1.3650, and 1.3830. The downside targets are 1.3300, 1.3200, 1.3100 and 1.2750.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down retracements into resistance areas such as the 8 period moving averages and trend line resistance or intraday swing failures could be potentially viewed as selling opportunities.

Scenario 2
Alternatively as EURUSD is extended from the averages there is a potential for further upside correction.

Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 12th November 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Intraday view
This morning GBPUSD has broken down from its overnight range and breached and trading well under trend line support. The possible projected maximum range based upon current price action being 1.5900 to 1.6038. We are currently monitoring a potential move down to the low of the 16th October at 1.5893.

Trade ideas
1. On a daily swing bases GBPUSD continues to trend positively on both daily and weekly time frames. However the current price action would appear to be attempting to print a lower high. Therefore it is important for the health of the current uptrend that GBPUSD does note trade beneath the 16th October isolated low. That the RSI is diverging positively does give the long side some encouragement but it should be noted that the averages have crossed negatively for the first time since July 2013. If GBPUSD does continue to trade lower market participants looking for value on the long side of the market would potentially be looking at the double bottom area of 1.5893 with intraday swing failures of lower highs possibly offering opportunities to nibble on the long side.

2. However as GBPUSD continues to breach multiple trend lines and with the price action now trading deep into Fibonacci support it would appear that the route of least resistance is to the down side with the initial target being the 1.5893 swing low.

Marco Technical Targets
1.6260, 1.6170, 1.5890, 1.5715, 1.5570, 1.5720

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up that GBPUSD is extended from its averages could offer opportunities to take long positions. However as the current market sentiment is fairly negative one would best look for areas where this down move stalls on an intraday basis so that long positions could possibly be entered.

Scenario 2
Alternatively as GBPUSD has broken trend line support areas there is potential for a move that takes the price action back down to 1.5893 being a prior isolated low that was printed on 16th October.

Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 12th November 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Up
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Trade ideas
1. On a basis swing bases the trend is now positive following the breach of the prior isolated high. The moving averages are now layered positively and the breach of trend line resistance and the invalidation of Fibonacci resistance and the negative RSI divergence give further confirmation to the upside. The price action is somewhat consolidating within a four day range. Therefore we would like to see a break of Fridayâ€™s high and trend line resistance so as to give further confirmation to the up move. Intraday corrections and swing high failures could potentially offer the entry opportunities to test the long side.

2. However the weekly time frame continues to point down and the price action is now extended from the averages which could lead a downside correction. Intraday swing low failures could possibly offer entry opportunities to the short side.

Macro technical levels
The macro technical levels are 0.9020 0.8930, 0.8570 and 0.9200.

Scenario 1
As there has been an upside break of the overnight range there is potential for a continuation of this move with the price action aiming for the target of last Thursdayâ€™s high.

Scenario 2
Alternatively the current intraday up trend could reverse following a failure to hold above a prior swing low.

Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 12th November 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Up
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Intraday
This morning session has exploded to the upside USDJPY touching the upper level of the converging triangle. The possible projected maximum daily ranges based upon current price being 99.09 to 99.80. As USDJPY is now trading at the extreme of its daily average range it would be interesting to see if the price action has enough energy left today to breach and sustain a move above the upper level of the converging triangle. A failure of an upside resistance break will open up the possibility of USDJPY trading a full average days range to the downside.

Trade ideas
1. With USDJPY having breached the prior swing high of the 17th October has changed the trend on a swing bias to up. The change of the daily trend now puts the swing bias in line with the weekly trend. This morning strong open puts a potential break of the converging triangle to the upside sharply into focus. However as a daily average range has already been traded the conservative plays are to either wait for a pullback possibly to the 8 period moving averages before deciding to participate on the long side or allow for a break of the converging triangle top and trade the pullback by using a choice of oneâ€™s preferred entry techniques.

2. However the overhead Fibonacci area that has offered good resistance will have to be overcome to allow for further upside. Now that the price action is trading at trend line resistance shorting opportunities may arise.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support such as the 8 period moving averages could potentially be viewed as buying opportunities.

Scenario 2
Alternatively both the Fibonacci resistance and upper trend line of the converging triangle could offer downside pressure that pushes USDJPY back to support with a swing low failure being the tipping point.

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